Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I get the excitement for him if you can get him round 7 or 8. Creeping up much higher than that seems pretty risky. It's the Texans RB we are talking here.
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RB Dameon Pierce, KC (3 Viewers)
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zamboni
Footballguy
True, he may not be a league winner, but with the RB position so scarce - particularly among those with 3-down potential - he can be very valuable. It all depends on who you are drafting Pierce over.People are acting like this guy is some league winner - he may end up being very productive but the higher the price the less return for your buck you're getting. He's not a bargain if you're paying RB2 value and he returns RB2 production. I mean there is a chance that he's not all that useful in fantasy football as well, if things change once the real bullets fly.Absolutely don't take him at 2.12, C'mon man. He should be there at 4.12 but if he's not then that's fineI have #1 overall tonight late in my biggest league........ and after hearing a tiny bit of chatter from a couple guys in our league, I think I'd have to take him at the 2/3 turn to have a chance at getting him.
I'm as high on the situation as most, but I don't know if I want to pull the trigger that early.
massraider
Footballguy
I am on th side of 'this is out of control' but any RB that appears to be the 3 down guy, and getting superstar preseason rest, is a guy that deserves consideration in the top 5 rounds. People are confidently referring to the RB Dead Zone, and if you can get a 3 down guy in the 4th/5th, you have to think about it.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Grabbed him in the 8.04 and have had 3 different owners tell me he was their next pick. This guy any good? I bought on hype, lol. I don't remember watching his tape and if I did, I must not have been impressed. Everybody else seems to be.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Okay, so I took 5 minutes to watch his tape and he looks pretty good. What I noticed most is his acceleration, he slows in and out of his cuts very quickly and then picks a lane. By no means a bruiser, but I did see him convert on the goalline. If he gets carries, he will produce.
If the Texans want him to be the guy, he will be the guy. I don't think he's a world beater, but it's obvious he's got fresh legs.
If the Texans want him to be the guy, he will be the guy. I don't think he's a world beater, but it's obvious he's got fresh legs.
massraider
Footballguy
Where you got him, you should be happy with the volume, and if he happens to be a good RB, that's even better.
zamboni
Footballguy
It was also mentioned well upthread, but it's probably also important to distinguish between redraft, keeper and dynasty leagues here. I'm much more bullish on Pierce for redraft, but much more cautious in keeper/dynasty leagues where he can very well be Michael Carter-ed next year if he doesn't truly pop.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
This feels like the answer. Situation is critical.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I think so too. It was between him and Penny. But Pierce seemingly has less competition, either way it was my RB3 spot behind Montgomery / Harris.
sheerterror
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Really good point. This literally didn't occur to me until I read this post, but Carter might have exceptional value if Breece Hall just isn't very good at football.Carter is still our RB1
But I understand your point.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Ironically, I drafted Carter at 1.12 last year, then moved him this summer to the 1.1 Hall drafter (who has since traded away both players) with Davis Mills for 2 2nd's (and Hubbard, I own CMac) - one of which netted me Pierce at 2.7. Feels like a trade that might end up working out for both of us.Really good point. This literally didn't occur to me until I read this post, but Carter might have exceptional value if Breece Hall just isn't very good at football.Carter is still our RB1
But I understand your point.
I've got Pierce as RB22, at the top of a tier that includes Mitchell, Dillon, Dobbins, CEH, and Sanders. Other than maybe Dobbins (who is riskier in my opinion) I think he's got the most upside of that group, barring an Aaron Jones injury.
ETA: 5/6 turn feels like the sweet spot in my eyes.
ETA: 5/6 turn feels like the sweet spot in my eyes.
Capella
Footballguy
He went around pick 110 in my local league this weekend. I’m not a believer. Terrible team, terrible offense, terrible QB, terrible coach, feels like another preseason hype pick that we’ll look back on and laugh about. Taking him in round 4 or 5 ahead of way more proven and productive players is nuts imo but to each their own. People always getting excited about these new shiny toys and pass on proven players for them.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Mid 5th to mid 6th seems right. A RB that’s getting touches means something in the RBBC NFL.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Maybe because experienced fantasy football writers don't fall trap to the preseason?
I mean, there is certainly a possibility that Pierce is for real... provides RB2 value this year, gets some 3-down work and is a starter and contributor for fantasy teams. Would argue there is an equal or better possibility he does not. I think several guys in this thread are squinting (or looking through rose colored glasses) with their optimism on the Texans offense. I don't see Davis Mills striking fear into defensive coordinators. Even if Pierce is better than expected, he may at times see 8 guys in the box on a bad offense with negative game script and rarely gets into the red zone for him to score.
I have no issue moving him up in the rankings (no question, he has earned it). But I also think FBG's have it about right. Pierce wouldn't be the first to disappoint after the group think here and significant preseason hype.
Let's just say it will be enjoyable coming back to this thread around midseason or so either way...
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Of course it's possible that Houston's offense takes big steps this year. It's also possible that an unheralded third round QB takes a step back when there's a season's worth of film on him.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle though. It was a decent offense last year.
I don't play for 2nd place. I play to win. And to win in competitive leagues you have to take risks. I'll take high upside every time. Don't think this team is as bad as you make it either.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed. I am impressed that Mills performed as well as he did - better than just about all of the other, much more heralded guys at the top of the draft. It's certainly possible teams may be able to scheme better on him, but it's also possible he gets better with experience. Definitely a wide range of outcomes here, I think.
massraider
Footballguy
Where do you slot him? It's one thing to say he's too hyped, but where does he fall in value?
I actually took Chase Edmonds right after him in a draft yesterday, that feels about right neighborhood to me. RB 30ish.
I actually took Chase Edmonds right after him in a draft yesterday, that feels about right neighborhood to me. RB 30ish.
He has a higher ceiling than Edmonds. Mostert is still there and I think Michel gets a lot of GL work.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Evan Silva has him at RB23 on ETR between Dillon and Dobbins. Just giving another data point.
massraider
Footballguy
I agree. I'm asking where you slot him, not what you think about my draft
Towards the lower end of RB2. Around Hall, ETN, JK and Montgomery.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Obviously I'm not buying that, but don't be shocked if Mack and Burkhead are more involved than this thread thinks.
Damn, he has to be the most polarizing player of the year.
People in here saying he should be gone round 4, and FBG having him at round at 105 overall (round 9). I get both camps, but 5 rounds apart seems crazy.
I'm almost always a "truth lies in between" person so I'd say late 6th/early 7th seems about perfect.
People in here saying he should be gone round 4, and FBG having him at round at 105 overall (round 9). I get both camps, but 5 rounds apart seems crazy.
I'm almost always a "truth lies in between" person so I'd say late 6th/early 7th seems about perfect.
Capella
Footballguy
What is the high upside? He didn’t play much in college, he wasn’t drafted highly in the nfl and he plays on a terrible team. High upside because he made a few nice preseason plays? That’s just wish casting.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
GET ON THE DAMION PIERCE HYPE TRAIN OR GET OUT OF THE WAY!!!
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Not saying I think he should go in something like the third round, but as a kneejerk reaction, here is a quick list of RBs I DO NOT WANT for other reasons. (Many go ahead of Pierce, or at the least in and around where he's going) Mostly O Line issues or injury concerns/bad teams, theres a multitude of reasons I steer clear of some people.
Damien Harris (much rather have Stevenson later)
Clyde Edwards Helaire - Been down this road before
Chase Edmonds - Not investing in the Miami run game
Miles Sanders - Seriously, this dude even TOLD fantasy owners NOT to draft him. I'll grant him his wish.
Devin Singletary - Committee
Cordarrelle Patterson - Not hitching my wagon to this
Leonard Fournette - Not interested.
There are also a bunch of earlier RBs that I'd rather have Pierce over.
ZEKE - More of a product of where I'm drafting at #1 overall, he won't be available at the 2/3 turn, I'd rather have Pollard much later anyway
Breece Hall - Jets?
Carter should open the first few games getting the majority of the work, from recent reports. The shark move is to get Carter, hope for decent production the first few weeks them dump him. But I believe their early season schedule is brutal.
Elijah Mitchell - I'm not riding the SF carousel of RB death this year, barring a horrific draft issue
JK Dobbins - Love the scenario and potential work, but looks like he will miss time still, possibly a few weeks from memory
AJ Dillon - League winner if Jones goes down, but in a timeshare unless that happens
Cam Akers - Has the potential to be a workhorse in a great offense. The upside is there, although I did not own him last year, I only remember he didn't appear to be the same back as pre-injury. That might all change with another offseason gone now. This is one I have difficulty with.
Yep, I mentioned the situation. If there isn't a clear path to workload here, then where is it?
To be fair, theres plenty of WR value in and around where Pierce is currently going. I'll end up with at least 1 WR after the 2/3 turn somehow.
On Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead - I'm not worried about Burkhead at 32 years old, but he may get some passing down work. Marlon Mack has never been the same since his Achilles in 2020. Will he make a triumphant return? Doubtful.
As I said before, I don't know if I want to pull the trigger at the 2/3 turn. But I know someone in our league tonight will get him before the 4/5 turn. One of the guys mentioned him today to me in text.
I may not be owning this guy in this league.
Damien Harris (much rather have Stevenson later)
Clyde Edwards Helaire - Been down this road before
Chase Edmonds - Not investing in the Miami run game
Miles Sanders - Seriously, this dude even TOLD fantasy owners NOT to draft him. I'll grant him his wish.
Devin Singletary - Committee
Cordarrelle Patterson - Not hitching my wagon to this
Leonard Fournette - Not interested.
There are also a bunch of earlier RBs that I'd rather have Pierce over.
ZEKE - More of a product of where I'm drafting at #1 overall, he won't be available at the 2/3 turn, I'd rather have Pollard much later anyway
Breece Hall - Jets?
Carter should open the first few games getting the majority of the work, from recent reports. The shark move is to get Carter, hope for decent production the first few weeks them dump him. But I believe their early season schedule is brutal.Elijah Mitchell - I'm not riding the SF carousel of RB death this year, barring a horrific draft issue
JK Dobbins - Love the scenario and potential work, but looks like he will miss time still, possibly a few weeks from memory
AJ Dillon - League winner if Jones goes down, but in a timeshare unless that happens
Cam Akers - Has the potential to be a workhorse in a great offense. The upside is there, although I did not own him last year, I only remember he didn't appear to be the same back as pre-injury. That might all change with another offseason gone now. This is one I have difficulty with.
Yep, I mentioned the situation. If there isn't a clear path to workload here, then where is it?
To be fair, theres plenty of WR value in and around where Pierce is currently going. I'll end up with at least 1 WR after the 2/3 turn somehow.
On Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead - I'm not worried about Burkhead at 32 years old, but he may get some passing down work. Marlon Mack has never been the same since his Achilles in 2020. Will he make a triumphant return? Doubtful.
As I said before, I don't know if I want to pull the trigger at the 2/3 turn. But I know someone in our league tonight will get him before the 4/5 turn. One of the guys mentioned him today to me in text.
I may not be owning this guy in this league.
Insein
Footballguy
He should get 300 touches in the offense if healthy and somewhat effective. Because it is a bad team. What he does with it is up to him. I have no delusions here. Ceiling I'm hoping for a usable RB3/flex that can fill in as a RB2 during the bye weeks and give me a good shot at double digit points from that spot.
cheeseypoof
Footballguy
Got him at 8.08 in a 16 team league on Saturday as the 41st RB taken. He's my RB#4 after Ekeler (4th RB taken), Chubb (8th RB) and Etienne (28th RB). Just joined this league this year. BAsed upon what I witnessed during the draft I'll either do really well or get my butt handed to me. LOL
Capella
Footballguy
Says who? I mean has anybody seen him take on a blitz from an nfl linebacker? Can he catch? Mack is there who is a pretty good back when healthy. I don’t know why there are any assumptions like this about Pierce.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Greg Cosell has spent decades evaluating QBs and is one of the best in the media at doing so. He came away very impressed with Mills. That was enough to get me to take the Houston offense a bit more seriously. Their O-line is a lot better than the travesty it was when Watson was QB. Mills is better than people may think. I’m not sure I’d pull the trigger on him as a RB2 except in large leagues, but I think he’s an excellent RB3 with great upside.
Wow that feels late. That's pick 120. Damn.
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Insoxicated
Went in the 7th sadly....
It was terrible last year but their Pro-Bowl LT also missed most of the season. PFF ranked them in the bottom 4 at the end of the year but it was also a MASH unit starting like 11 different guys in many different configurations. PFF had them as the worst run blocking line in the league by a sizeable margin.
If Tunsil stays heathy it should be improved this year (Watson's last year in 2020 Tunsil played the full year and they were ranked 23rd overall, but still 30th in run blocking), if they keep Tytus Howard at RT instead of constantly moving him around that should help with stability and consistency. If their 2nd 1st round pick gets in starting sooner rather than later that should help some too. He was running with the 2's in the last preseason game but he has received a lot of praise this offseason but minor injuries have him behind a little.
sheerterror
Footballguy
This was posted upthread
You have been around here long enough to know it's all about opportunity. He is going to get plenty of it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like him more than any of those guys.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
To be fair, I'd be surprised if HOU just went with Pierce/Burkhead. Could see them make a play for Mattison as much as I'm on the Pierce train.
Sony Michel? I doubt it but another possible name
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