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Don’t believe the hype. It’s been well documented the NE top dog at RB over the years doesn’t even get 60% of the RUNNING BACK workload (let alone the total team rushing attempts). Cam steals a ton of carries and TD chances and they also run a bunch of WR runs. And White will get almost all the receptions. People can try to say “this year is different” every year. And it never is (unless there are multiple injuries).
I agree, and I'm not touching him in redraft, but I inherited him in dynasty. When he was healthy last year, he got a serious lion's share of touches. Plus, like I said above, I've never heard beat reporters who are plugged in like Reiss say anything other than "Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team." That's all I've ever heard them say.
Harris averaged 13.7 carries a game. But in those games, Michel, White, and Burkhead all missed plenty of games. IMO, there is not a scenario that Harris has a monster season without multiple injuries to other backs. And there are plenty of guys that cover the Pats that are suggesting Cam will stick as the starter this year.
People can like anyone they want. No one said I don't like NE running backs . . . but the numbers are the numbers for fantasy purposes . . . they generally underachieve when it comes to fantasy. Here were all the Patriots running backs drafted in the Top 60 RBs going back to 2007 (that's as far back as the data I could find goes). ADP is for average draft position among RBs.
Yeah. I just know anytime someone says "You know I think NE RB might be top 20 this year..." a smoke bomb goes off and Anarchy appears, ready to slay everyone with data.
Sounds about right.
I probably overstated. NE backs don’t get 60% of their carries. Someone else ran the numbers on this and tweeted about it. It just doesn’t happen. He’ll probably get 50-55% of the RB carries (which Cam will steal many of them) and not many receptions.
Oh yeah I said snap not rushing attempts.
Agreed. Michel actually showed pretty well when they needed him last year, and I haven't seen anywhere other than that update that he might be a casualty. I think he makes the team as well, and wouldn't be surprised if he had a role just big enough to irritate Harris investors.
Tangent: Where did you get your ADP data? I've been looking for a good source for past ADP, and it looks like maybe you've found one.
That's good for this year, but if there's a way to get previous years' ADP I'm missing it.
Only time will tell, but I think people are making too big of a deal over the declined fifth year option. Michel would get triple the salary he is getting this year. He’s not worth that and the team likely thinks other teams won’t pay him $5 million either. They likely could re-sign him for a lot less than that. I doubt there would be a ton of suitors for his services. That doesn’t mean they will or won’t bring him back, but I don’t believe that means he is in the doghouse and will be barely utilized.
Be a bit surprised if he was a true bellow, BB seems to have specific roles for RBs and no one really gets overworked. Stevenson is a big wild card and someone I'm excited about long term in dynasty. This year probably not much but he could siphon touches from Harris similar to what Michel would have.
I suppose it depends what you consider a bell cow. If it’s 15 carries, very few receptions, and limit goal line work then sure.
well's its the goal line work that's up for grabs. Newton isn't going to last and if that threat goes away i can see harris ending up with 1000 yards and 10td
NE this year is nearly impossible to make projections for, as no one knows when and if Mac Jones will be the QB. However, they also added 2 red zone threats in Henry and Smith and drafted Stevenson as a quicker version of LaGarrette Blount. So I agree that there are paths and scenarios where Harris gets 10 TD . . . and there are suboptimal outcomes where he scores only 2 TD like last year.
Yeah . . . but what's to say that when the injuries happen, Harris isn't one of the casualties. He had issues staying on the field last year and only managed 137 carries on the season. That cuts both ways, as one could argue he has a lot of tread on the tires . . . or that he hasn't shown he can be a workhorse and stay healthy.
As a masochist who just traded for Damien Harris, traded away Cam, drafted Stevenson, and has been stubbornly refusing to cut bait on Michel since drafting him as a rookie, I'm feeling pretty good about my luck right now.
Dude, you are a brave man. But it seems to have fallen in your favor on paper.
