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RB David Johnson, Retired (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
John Daigle@notJDaigle
Even if David Johnson’s best days are behind him, his opportunity is invaluable as the #Texans have the most unaccounted for carries (252) from last season following day one of ‘free agency.’ Can view the updated list here:
By the Numbers: 2020 Unaccounted For Carries - Fantasy Columns
John Daigle tracks unaccounted for carries for every team throughout the offseason.
rotoworld.com
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2020 UNACCOUNTED FOR CARRIES
Even if David Johnson’s best days are behind him, his opportunity is invaluable as the #Texans have the most unaccounted for carries (252) from last season following day one of ‘free agency.’ Can view the updated list here:
By the Numbers: 2020 Unaccounted For Carries - Fantasy Columns
John Daigle tracks unaccounted for carries for every team throughout the offseason.
rotoworld.com
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2020 UNACCOUNTED FOR CARRIES
Go to link for the chart.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
PFF predicts DJ's numbers for 2020. Carlos Hyde numbers from last year with the Texans next to DJ's predicted 2020 numbersFaust said:
- Rushing attempts 190 - Last year Carlos Hyde had 245 (Most in his 7 year career)
- Rushing yards 673 - Last year CH 1,070 (Most in his career)
- Rushing TDs 7 - Last year CH 6 (2nd most of his career)
- Receiving targets 40 - Last year CH 16
- Receptions 31 - Last year CH 10
- Receiving yards 254 - Last year CH 42
- Receiving TDs 1 - Last year CH - 0
2019 Duke Johnson - Rush Att. 83 - Rush Yds. 410 - Rush TD 2 - Rec. Targ. 62 - Rec. 44 - Rec Yds. 410 (Not a typo had equal rush/rec yds) - Rec. TD 3
2020 PFF Duke Johnson projection - 66 Rush Att. - 291 Rush Yds. - 1 Rush TD - 59 Rec. Targ. - 47 Rec. - 369 Rec. Yds. - 2 Rec. TDs
Duke loses 17 rushing attempts but his receiving stats remain basically the same. Team attempts remain same but both DJ and Duke lose carries. Where'd they go?
Deshaun Watson 2019 Rush Att. 82 - Rush Yds. 413 - Rush TD 7
Deshaun Watson PFF 2020 projections 132 Rush Att. - 614 yards - 6 Rush TDs
So a decrease in carries from Hyde to DJ with Duke also taking a hit on rush attempts but QB Desaun Watson getting a massive increase of 50 carries. It should be noted that Desaun Watson has never had 100 carries in his career so they are projecting a career high number of carries. Why? He lost his best receiving target in WR DeAndre Hopkins so lets look at the numbers he left on the table.
2019 DeAndre Hopkins - 150 targets - 104 Rec. - 1,165 yards - 7 TDs
2020 PFF projection 495 targets to Texan offense/Last yr. 534 = -39
A couple of things to note on David Johnson and BOB against the PFF projections and what to expect.
Clay: 50 things I learned while doing 2020 fantasy football projections
The 'general' feeling is BOB doesn't use his RBs but last year he had Hopkins and Carlos Hyde was his number one RB and Hyde was worthless as a receiver.
SOTT Mailbag: How does David Johnson fit with the Texans?
I'm not buying Desuan Watson gaining 50 carries but I am buying DJ making the RB a fixture in the passing game.
Last year DJ looked like he lost explosion and appeared 'to me' that he wasn't hitting the hole fast enough. He looked fine when they lined him up outside.
I think PFF's projection is low on the number of carries and that DJ will see higher targets due to the loss of Hopkins.
Last year the projection was that Duke would take over but he continued to disappoint because no coaching staff gives him carries.
I don't see DJ getting massive numbers but I see him with 'decent' stats. How I see David Johnson projected numbers for 2020
- 210 carries (which would put him at #20 in 2019)
- 800 yards (22 in 2019)
- 7 Rush TDs (tied with six RBs for 14th so basically around 21st)
- 55 targets (120th in the league overall but 19th of RBs)
- 37 receptions (113th in the league but 21st of RBs)
- 370 receiving yards (119th overall but 16th of RBs)
- 3 receiving TDs (13th of RBs and one less than he had last year)
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Great reasoning, @Bracie Smathers -- really like the quant approach you took.
While I buy the fact that DJ has the opportunity for those stats, my problem is around the probability of whether he can do it. Guy just looked to go sharply downhill over the last few years and kinda looked shot.
The opportunity might be there, I just don't think DJ can realize it.
While I buy the fact that DJ has the opportunity for those stats, my problem is around the probability of whether he can do it. Guy just looked to go sharply downhill over the last few years and kinda looked shot.
The opportunity might be there, I just don't think DJ can realize it.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I'll start by saying that you could be correct that DJ has lost it. We saw last year when BOB traded for Duke most everyone assumed he had a clear path but then they signed Hyde and Duke dreams went up in smoke.
Hyde was ineffective in the passing game. Duke isn't a feature back. DJ can be 'thee-guy' but we'll have to wait-and-see if they bring in someone else or if they stick with DJ.
Now just 'assume' DJ was hampered by injuries and hadn't quite gotten back on track from the previous year. Think back and just 'assume' DJ is well rested and healthy. Prior to the start of the season two years back DJ was considered the top fantasy RB. He showed flashed of that back last year.
Last year he only had two games with more than 11 carries.
- In the opener he got 18 carries for 82 rushing yards with an additional 7 receptions for 55 yards and a score.
- The other he got 17 carries for 91 yards with an additional 5 receptions for 65 yards.
Yes David looked bad but it is possible he can have a huge bounce back year. They are paying him over $10 million this year so I think they'll run him as much as they can.
The key IMHO is if they sign a big name or draft someone high but even then I think they give him every opportunity to be the feature back and BOB gets stubborn with his loyalty just as he did last year with Hyde but DJ can stay on the field every down as a weapon in the passing game.
David Johnson has a better line, an established veteran QB, and a HC who will feed him the ball and use his skills in the passing game.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
1. He produced in two games, was replaced by Kenyan drake, who couldn’t get a hold on a starting job in weak backfield Miami, and who also produced some pretty dang good weeks with the same line and rookie QB. You make very good and well thought out points and I’m not going to disagree with the overall take. He likely will get the opportunity to be the feature back, and while I Hope he has a good year because I like the player, I’m not sure he can sustain a feature back workload and/or be effective.
2. The idea that there are targets available is catch-22: there are targets for him in the passing game, but the lack of weapons in the passing game will hurt the running game.
Taking a flyer on any of the tes that are on the ww where I have room.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
He was getting the bulk of work before his ankle injury. Look at his game log, he produced fantasy points every game the first six games even when splitting carries with Chase before Drake came on board after his injury.Snorkelson said:
Trying to say Drake was lost in Miami's weak backfield isn't an indictment against David Johnson. Raheem Mostert came out of weaker RB situations in Cleveland and he sat in SF for years before he broke out. Hyde and Duke Johnson were traded from Cleveland. Where a back came from isn't relevant.
He played WR in college, he is a natural in the passing game. Not just losing Hopkins which opens up targets but the fact Hyde was a zero in the passing game 'likely' lead to DJ replacing him since they don't tip the defense by bringing in Duke and telegraphing what they are doing.
Two years ago he was the 10th rated fantasy RB producing over 1,300 combined yards and double digit scores and that was a year removed from missing an entire season due to injury. Houston is paying him and traded for him so they seem to believe in him handling the load.Dr. Dan said:
Like I said. Wait and see if they make any big moves and if they don't then yeah I see the numbers I project as being conservative and not far off his top-ten fantasy production of two years ago.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well there’s not really an impact players left in free agency and Houston doesn’t have many picks at all so I think the likelihood of a big move at RB is pretty small.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
FWIW Mike Clay is putting out his NFL unit grades for each team and one of the teams he released is Houston where he 'projects' starter production.
Here is what he has for DJ.
2020 Houston Texans Projection (for RB David Johnson)
- 234 carries (I had him lower at 210)
- 949 yards (I had him lower at 800)
- 6 Rush TDs (I had him one-higher at 7)
- 47 targets (I had him higher with 55 targets)
- 34 receptions (I had him with 37 or three higher receptions so about equal)
- 335 receiving yards (I have him at 370 receiving yards which is below his career average per reception)
- 2 receiving TDs (I had him with 3 receiving TDs which is one lower than he had last year)
- Combined yards - 1,284
- Combined TDs - 8
- Combined yards - 1,170
- Combined TDs - 10
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.
>> visits by team broken out by position
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This is the most valuable link I've seen all off season. Only wish I could see the numbers too.They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Here is an addition made to that Twitter post graphic
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Tom Kislingbury@TomKislingbury
Whatever charts I post [and there's a LOT] there's always someone who thinks it's super unfair and misleading of me to post it because they like the data in a different visualisation. Cost of doing business on Twitter. Here's the same data but also showing total visit numbers.
LINK to chart of same data but also showing total visit numbers
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Yeah, I saw that. This visual is a little more helpful. Found the raw data here. And walterfootball has it broke down by player and type of visit.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Those visits often don't correlate - but we won't know until we do.They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.
Bill O'Brien truly is an idiot if he uses one of the few early picks the Texans have on a RB - but he has shown to be an idiot.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
In a 'typical' draft season they don't necessarily correlate.
This year its different from every other draft season.
We have to see how this plays out but they have had the most 'visits', BOB signed a RB after trading for Duke last year. He's a wild card with a history of making moves so I'm not blowing this off.
As a DJ owner I don't feel comfortable right now and won't unless the Texans go into the year with DJ and Duke and haven't made a big play for another RB.
kutta
Footballguy
Can you expound on this a bit? In 2018 he was RB 9 in my PPR league. He had a back injury last year and it really slowed him down.
And he doesn't turn 29 until December mid-December, so it's a little hard to hold that against him.
If he's truly healthy, he's got a good shot to have a good couple years in Houston.
kutta
Footballguy
I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. He has been hurt the last couple years. It’s good to hear he feels that way - he should get fed early and often. This is his chance to get back to prominence.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Well, even with the most RB 'visits' BOB has gone D-Line so-far and their really isn't much left at RB in the draft and it is doubtful he'd get a FA considering how DJ's salary so he looks 'safer' today.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Good call. And I do think he's going to be a very sneaky play this year. Coach has to save face after getting blasted for that stupid trade. I bet he easily get 100+ targets in the passing game too.
rockaction
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
When you look at their current WRs, and how many games a year both starters have missed with injuries over the last few years, it absolutely does make sense.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Interesting. As a huge AZ fan, and a DJ owner in dynasty since his rookie year, I still have glorious memories of those 1.5 seasons where he looked like the second coming of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.
I'm holding and buying if the price is right - He has a chance to be a three-down back and it just feels like BoB will feed him to try to prove he was right.
And, he put up some really good numbers last year early in the season before he got hurt, again. He was the RB5 through six weeks last year, so he still has that potential.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Duke Johnson dynasty owner here.
I’m avoiding David Johnson for the same reason I avoided David Johnson the last 3 years, and haven’t regretted it once.
Hard to predict injury, but David does seem to get hurt a lot. And I don’t see HOU not using Duke at all, since he’s so good in the passing game he can split out wide in 3 receiver sets.
Shark play: avoid David, get Duke on the cheap, get a solid flex back if/when David goes down for a stretch.
if I had DJ anywhere I’d probably hold because his Dynasty trade value can’t be great. So it’s all upside so long as he’s vertical.
I’m avoiding David Johnson for the same reason I avoided David Johnson the last 3 years, and haven’t regretted it once.
Hard to predict injury, but David does seem to get hurt a lot. And I don’t see HOU not using Duke at all, since he’s so good in the passing game he can split out wide in 3 receiver sets.
Shark play: avoid David, get Duke on the cheap, get a solid flex back if/when David goes down for a stretch.
if I had DJ anywhere I’d probably hold because his Dynasty trade value can’t be great. So it’s all upside so long as he’s vertical.
Milkman
Footballguy
Exactly. He still has elite RB1 upside. Now let's hope he stays healthy for a year for once. He was doing very well through 6 weeks last year then he had some kind of injury.
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kutta
Footballguy
I can totally understand that thinking, and it's probably the right thing to do. But if DJ does hit, it's going to be really good. I'm willing to take that risk at his current price.
jm192
Footballguy
2016 is all he’s ever had.
DJ was a world beater in 2016. Since then, he hasn’t had 1,000 yards rushing. He hasn’t averaged 4 yards a carry since then. He’s had 1 100 yard rushing game since then. Injuries have played a big part, but they exist. He’s 28 and will be 29.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Of course - that risk/reward is factored into his redraft price. If we knew he’d “hit” he’s a top 7 pick, right?
As it is he’s what, late second / mid 3rd?
I don’t know if the 2020 Texans are a better or worse run OL than AZ has been...I’m leaning worse.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the 1 year I had him. Was fully planning on taking him in redraft in 2017, missed him by 1 pick.
kutta
Footballguy
I get the injuries. Those worry me. But he was RB5 though 6 games last year. He can still put up numbers. IF he’s healthy, I think he’s a top 8 RB, with potential to be even better.
But I agree it’s a big if.
kutta
Footballguy
I get the injuries. Those worry me. But he was RB5 though 6 games last year. He can still put up numbers. IF he’s healthy, I think he’s a top 8 RB, with potential to be even better.
But I agree it’s a big if.
Milkman
Footballguy
Arizona OL was bad last year but I totally understand not wanting anything to do with DJ. He has had a ton of injuries.
az_prof
Footballguy
Houston has not done a good job of throwing to the backs with Watson. I don't understand why they want after Johnson who is a plus receiving back but a negative runner. They had Duke who is the same kind of back and they didn't use him much last year. Now they have two guys like that. Riddle me this.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
They seemed to do it more in 2019 with Duke. He had 5 receptions in their playoff game, no?
He caught 44 passes last year. That’s not nothing. Maybe they go more that way with AJ Gone.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, but compared to the Texans which also seemed not awesome. Could be a lateral move in that regard
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
But any rb can put up numbers if they get enough touches. The question is can he play well enough to get them and also stay healthy. Both look doubtful though I’m happy to be proven wrong.
