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RB David Montgomery, DET (2 Viewers)

Skeletore Eh said:
is it more silly to ignore the data we have at hand or to take it into consideration?

since not using cohen in their most important game of the season when they couldn't move the ball on offense, they traded up in the draft (when they were already short on picks) to draft a do it all rb.   they have since talked up montgomery's receiving ability and how they will be less predictable with him on the field.  

i think if you look at everything in totality the bears are telling us what they want to do.  whether it plays out that way remains to be seen
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I agree, and I am down on Cohen myself.  But a single game plan in a playoff game no less is not any kind of evidence for future usage.

 
Skeletore Eh said:
is it more silly to ignore the data we have at hand or to take it into consideration?

since not using cohen in their most important game of the season when they couldn't move the ball on offense, they traded up in the draft (when they were already short on picks) to draft a do it all rb.   they have since talked up montgomery's receiving ability and how they will be less predictable with him on the field.  

i think if you look at everything in totality the bears are telling us what they want to do.  whether it plays out that way remains to be seen
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This is not data. Facts, or reading of the tea leaves, not data. 

Having lost Cunningham and trading Howard, the Bears needed to get a few rbs, at least for depth. Drafting one in the 3rd round, to me does not scream 'tired of Cohen, we need a bell cow feature back.' 

 
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Hairy Snowman said:
I agree. Especially against a team that the Bears historically struggle against.  I think the Fog Bowl may have been the last time they beat the Eagles. 

 

I agree up to Montgomery getting 220 carries.  I think that is little too much for a rookie.  But I am close.  I would put a ceiling at 200.  I expect him to come on with a bigger role later in the year as the Bears head towards the playoffs.   
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Yeah I am just spitballing here. I'm really not sure.

As you say it is hard to project for the Bears right now. Only one season with Nagy to use as a guideline (I would prefer 2 or 3 seasons of data to project from)  and also changes in key personnel, coaching and schedule that complicates such speculation further.

I appreciate the discussion and home town perspective. Maybe 220 rushing attempts for Montgomery is too many for his rookie season. Based on the player I think he is, and the number of rushing attempts by Howard, 220 seemed like a decent compromise, but perhaps it is fewer than that. Especially if Davis does have 40 or more rushing attempts himself.

 
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A look at the impact of Mike Davis on Montgomery. Davis had a career season in Seatlle a year ago and parlayed that into a two-year contract at $3M per season. Negative points on Davis include less than 3.0 ypc in his for three NFL seasons, even in his break-out fourth year, he only had double digit carries in five games and was used more when the top two backs were out. His ypc in 2018 was the least compared to Carson and Penny. His experience is the primary factor that could give him opportunities early this season over Montgomery. We should have a much better idea how Montgomery is doing in August, but reports are very positive thus far.

i think there is an RBBC only early season if at all between Montgomery and Davis. I doubt Davis has any games with double digit carries without an injury to Montgomery.

 
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Here is Mike Clays team projection for the Bears

He has the Bears throwing the ball 534 times and running the ball 410 times including 67 rushing attempts for Tribisky. with 34 sacks this is 978 total plays. Down 35 total plays compared to last year. Tougher schedule could account for that.

Clay has Mike Davis with 52 rushing attempts over the season, 5 targets 4 receptions. Maybe the rushing attempts for Davis here are a bit high?

He has David Montgomery with 215 rushing attempts 950 yards (4.4 ypc)  6 TD 47 targets 36 receptions (76% catch rate slightly above average for RB) 1 TD in PPR this is 204 points which is RB 25 in Clays projections.

He has Tarik Cohen with 76 rushing attempts 339 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 78 targets 59 receptions (75% catch rate which is Cohens career catch rate so far) 570 yards 4 TD in PPR this is 184 points which is RB 29 in Clays projections.

I think I mostly agree with these numbers although I think the rushing attempts for Davis may be a bit high.

 
couple of things have me a bit scared of the 2019 Bears.

1. Lost Fangio 

2. MUCH tougher schedule in 2019

3. Improving NFC North ( well, on paper anyways).

Do you really trust Trubisky ? really? 

I think they overacheived in 2018, played a weak schedule and were the new kids on the block - new coaches, fresh faces, etc.

one year later teams are coming after them.

I think they arrived a year early last season. I don't think they'll stay at the top. probably 8-8, 7-9 season coming up..just my opinion but I think they have some regression this season.

I'm not sure what to make of Monty, I like Jacobs position in Oak a lot more. Cohen hanging around doesn't inspire confidence in a 200+ carry season for Montgomery either.

 
According to Adam Jahns of The Athletic, David Montgomery was "a problem" for the Bears' defense during OTAs.

Jahns was effusive in his praise of Montgomery, who "excited" teammates and coaches with his receiving skills and route-running prowess throughout OTAs. The Bears beat reporter went on to say Montgomery led "the rookies, if not the entire team" in highlight-reel plays this offseason. The real test will come when the Bears put on pads next month, but Montgomery's versatility has certainly been apparent in the early going. He's the favorite to replace Jordan Howard on early downs with Tarik Cohen occupying his usual receiving role out of the Bears' backfield.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jun 28, 2019, 4:24 PM ET
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Biabreakable said:
Here is Mike Clays team projection for the Bears

He has the Bears throwing the ball 534 times and running the ball 410 times including 67 rushing attempts for Tribisky. with 34 sacks this is 978 total plays. Down 35 total plays compared to last year. Tougher schedule could account for that.

Clay has Mike Davis with 52 rushing attempts over the season, 5 targets 4 receptions. Maybe the rushing attempts for Davis here are a bit high?

He has David Montgomery with 215 rushing attempts 950 yards (4.4 ypc)  6 TD 47 targets 36 receptions (76% catch rate slightly above average for RB) 1 TD in PPR this is 204 points which is RB 25 in Clays projections.

He has Tarik Cohen with 76 rushing attempts 339 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 78 targets 59 receptions (75% catch rate which is Cohens career catch rate so far) 570 yards 4 TD in PPR this is 184 points which is RB 29 in Clays projections.

I think I mostly agree with these numbers although I think the rushing attempts for Davis may be a bit high.
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Granted our scoring system has bonuses for long runs/receptions but otherwise it is your typical 1pt PPR league. Cohen finished as the #7 back last year. Not sure why Clay has him so low but I would have to see where he finished based on the numbers Clay is using last year. 

 
Elevencents said:
Granted our scoring system has bonuses for long runs/receptions but otherwise it is your typical 1pt PPR league. Cohen finished as the #7 back last year. Not sure why Clay has him so low but I would have to see where he finished based on the numbers Clay is using last year. 
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Projections for players tends to be higher than how all the players actually finish. Because of injuries and other unforeseen things (suspension to Hunt) that happen during the season.

Last year in normal PPR scoring Cohen finished as RB 11. So the return yardage scoring in your league caused him to finish 4 spots higher than that.

Clay is actually projecting Cohen to have 7 more receptions than last season but with 155 less receiving yards. He projects about 100 fewer rushing yards with 23 fewer attempts.

I don't know where Clay projected Cohen last season. That Cohen finished as high as he did last season has a lot to do with other players falling out contention. James White finished as RB 7 last year. If the RB didn't have a lot of receptions they didn't sniff the top 12 at all.

The difference between RB 12 and RB 24 last season was 60 points or 3.5 points per game. The end of year ranking by scoring is usually about which players were able to stay healthy and not miss games. Hunt who finished at 12 for example surely would have finished higher than that if not for missing the last 5 games.

 
Faust said:
I think that Montgomery is in the conversation for the 1.02 rookie pick (assuming that Josh Jacobs is the 1.01 pick).
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Well he did win the standard poll at pick 1.03 and the PPR poll at 1.04 (kind of funny the difference there being people valuing Miles Sanders in PPR more where everything I can see tells me that Montgomery is the better receiver. I guess this is more about Cohen than the players. Anyhow I think he has always been in the conversation.

I don't really think Josh Jacobs is better than Montgomery either. They are pretty close and when it comes to track record Montgomery is more proven in my view than Jacobs is. Mainly because of the workload questions, which do not concern me much in regards to Jacobs, he had very good competition for touches and distanced himself from Harris towards the end of the 2018 season. 

Still. Even Raiders fans are wondering if Jacobs can handle the workload being set up for him. We just don't know that yet. I don't have any questions like this about Montgomery. Hes done it.

The vast difference in draft position of course trumps all that. 

FWIW I have had Montgomery ranked ahead of Jacobs pre NFL draft although the same tier. I still think Henderson is the best RB from this draft class. He has a serious obstacle in Gurley though.

 
Biabreakable said:
Well he did win the standard poll at pick 1.03 and the PPR poll at 1.04 (kind of funny the difference there being people valuing Miles Sanders in PPR more where everything I can see tells me that Montgomery is the better receiver. I guess this is more about Cohen than the players. Anyhow I think he has always been in the conversation.

I don't really think Josh Jacobs is better than Montgomery either. They are pretty close and when it comes to track record Montgomery is more proven in my view than Jacobs is. Mainly because of the workload questions, which do not concern me much in regards to Jacobs, he had very good competition for touches and distanced himself from Harris towards the end of the 2018 season. 

Still. Even Raiders fans are wondering if Jacobs can handle the workload being set up for him. We just don't know that yet. I don't have any questions like this about Montgomery. Hes done it.

The vast difference in draft position of course trumps all that. 

FWIW I have had Montgomery ranked ahead of Jacobs pre NFL draft although the same tier. I still think Henderson is the best RB from this draft class. He has a serious obstacle in Gurley though.
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Agree that Montgomery has less questions than Jacobs and also agree that Henderson is the best back in this class.  :hifive:

 
Faust said:
I think that Montgomery is in the conversation for the 1.02 rookie pick (assuming that Josh Jacobs is the 1.01 pick).
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Especially with Cohen acknowledging that his role isn't expected to change.  Even in a bad year on a team where he was a bad fit, Jordan Howard had 270 touches.  I think Montgomery will start early in the season, perhaps even game 1.  And the volume is going to be big.

 
Faust said:
I think that Montgomery is in the conversation for the 1.02 rookie pick (assuming that Josh Jacobs is the 1.01 pick).
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Been there done that. I went Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders in one league. And a couple of others he went 1.02 or 1.03 (Sanders went 1.02 in that one). Harry's short team appeal is tied to Brady, who he may or may not gel with. Odds aren't really in his favor on that, but he has as good a shot as any WR they've "brought in" to make it. But, lots of people have doubts. His longterm appeal is tied to his talent outlasting the retirement of Brady. Which is maybe the best reason to consider him at 1.02 or 1.01. 

But Montgomery looks really good to me. I don't think 1.02 is a stretch at all. I think he is being drafted too low in bestballs and FBG redrafts right now. League winning ceiling and I think his floor is going to be solid. Gets a TD he wins you the week. 

 
I also like Montgomery more than Jacobs but there is at least a sliver of doubt that Chicago will be a committee approach and I don't see that in Oakland/Vegas. Cohen will definitely have a bigger role than whoever Gruden puts out there. 

 
Matt Nagy said rookie RB David Montgomery "should get a fair amount of carries in the preseason."

Montgomery has been reportedly elusive during offseason drills, which isn't surprising given his forced broken tackles metrics in college. The Bears already know what they have in Tarik Cohen so getting Montgomery extra work in the preseason seems like a no-brainer. The third-round rookie has been compared to Kareem Hunt by his own coaching staff. Montgomery, unlike former Bears back Jordan Howard, has shown an ability to catch passes out of the backfield.

SOURCE: Larry Mayer on Twitter

Jul 21, 2019, 5:37 PM ET
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I assume he'll have a solid pre-season and be anointed the starter--which we'll shoot up his ADP.   

 
Seems like a very good compliment to Cohen. He’s a grinder with great vision, balance and low pad level. Not especially fast or explosive, doesn’t have the top gear to get away from the 2nd level for big gainers, but he’s a tough, bruising runner who is difficult to bring down.

Seems like the perfect replacement for Howard and he’s a much better receiver.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Seems like a very good compliment to Cohen. He’s a grinder with great vision, balance and low pad level. Not especially fast or explosive, doesn’t have the top gear to get away from the 2nd level for big gainers, but he’s a tough, bruising runner who is difficult to bring down.

Seems like the perfect replacement for Howard and he’s a much better receiver.
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Couldn't have said it better. 

 
cloppbeast said:
This years Royce Freeman.
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That's not unreasonable, but

1) Freeman was hurt.  Are you saying this because you project Montgomery to get hurt?  If not then

2) Who is going to lead the bears in rushing if not Montgomery?  Are you high on Davis?  Or Cohen becoming a first and second down back? 

I'm not ready to start him week 1 in a fantasy league, and he's getting taken in an area in redraft where if you don't consider him a week 1 starter, you're sacrificing somewhere else to get him.  But i really like his potential if he emerges, so I'm kind of struggling.  

 
zeeshan2 said:
In case you missed it:

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1158417601355296769
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Peterson: Top NFL evaluator says Chicago Bears' rookie David Montgomery is "turning heads'

David Montgomery has traits that could lead to NFL stardom. That's not hyperbole. That's exactly what one of the smartest analysts covering the NFL has to say about the Chicago Bears rookie. 

Former NFL and Iowa Hawkeye safety Matt Bowen, now one of the sport's go-to evaluators, was the one who told me that on Monday night.

When Matt speaks ... I take notes.

“He’s going to thrive in the offense, and people will say 'wow,'” Bowen said of the Iowa State great. ”His game will transition to the pro game. Fit and opportunity is everything. David’s opportunity will be there, both in run and pass game. His fit is there, because that’s what he did so well in college.

...“David Montgomery has a lot of pro traits that will transition quickly,” said Bowen, who covers the NFL for ESPN. “People will see that when he gets on football field. He’s got very quick short speed bursts. His contact balance is excellent. He’s been good in the passing game.

“Here’s one thing to his advantage — he's been going against the Bears defense every day in practice — and that’s a top-five defense. He has to see them every day, and he’s competing very favorably.

“David’s turned heads. His camp reports are very good. I’m anxious to see him in the preseason.”

... Bears coach Matt Nagy told reporters. "He has some of the best vision that I've seen in a long time. He feels where the defenders are before they show up..."

...“He had the quickest cuts I’ve seen from a college player in a long time in that game,” Bowen said. “He absorbed contact with his low center of gravity He tacked on extra yards.”
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A bit crowded in that backfield but the kid has looked good.  Cream rises so he could earn touches as the season unfolds.

 
Cam Newton playing it safe; Packers' rhythm; Leftwich's rise

Excerpt:

CHICAGO BEARS: Montgomery ready to make waves? Don't be surprised if rookie running back David Montgomery has a big impact on the Bears' offense this coming season. He was the team's first selection in this year's draft -- Chicago didn't have a pick until the third round, thanks to previous trades for Khalil Mack and Anthony Miller, and traded up in Round 3 to nab Montgomery -- and his blend of power and versatility will be invaluable for a team that traded former Pro Bowl back Jordan Howard to Philadelphia during the offseason.

At 5-foot-10 and 222 pounds, Montgomery is currently among the biggest backs on the team's roster. He's also listed behind Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis on the depth chart, but that could change as he gets more opportunities. Montgomery actually impressed the coaches during the team's first practice in full pads, when he broke through a crowd of tacklers and exploded for a long run in a team drill.

"He's been begging me to get us into pads so he could show what he can do," said head coach Matt Nagy. "And he looks good so far. We definitely thought he was underrated coming out of college (Montgomery played at Iowa State), and that's mainly because he didn't have great speed. But we think he's going to be pretty good."

-- Jeffri Chadiha
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
The days of getting him in ESPN mocks at the 4th and 5th will soon be over I believe.
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Fred Lane said:
Agreed.  By the time I draft he will easily be in the earlier part of the 3rd round, I think...
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Mike Davis gets the start.

 
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