this is because they have two very good RB's. It would be different if they didn't have Monty & Gibbs. Gibbs with the work horse and Reynolds/Vaki will get some scraps.
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RB David Montgomery, DET (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, well - as you saw yesterday, those sort of games often comes down to who has the ball last, or who plays mistake-free football.
Certainly a more difficult task in the playoffs when facing competent offenses & stout defenses.
I’m still rooting for your squad. My team’s toast & DET is fun to root for.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah it’s a real shame. Still, figure out a way to win out & they have the tiebreaker over both the other 12-2 teams.
Sure doesn’t seem like a Super Bowl is in the cards today, but we’ll see how it plays out. They’ve shown a lot of resiliency throughout the Dan Campbell era. This is just another test of what they’re made of, and they’re pretty good at shrugging stuff off.
"It was the best of times...it was the worst of times"
The hits just keep on coming in Motown
And not of the top 40 variety
Monty's injury sucks,but I don't think it hurts as much as the plethora of defensive injuries
This offense will still score plenty of points
Goff will have throw a little more,and that's not a bad thing
Gibbs will get a few more touches,and that's not a bad thing
Stay positive Detroit
You have Chicago and San Francisco coming up
That gives you two weeks to try to help the defense before Minnesota
The hits just keep on coming in Motown
And not of the top 40 variety
Monty's injury sucks,but I don't think it hurts as much as the plethora of defensive injuries
This offense will still score plenty of points
Goff will have throw a little more,and that's not a bad thing
Gibbs will get a few more touches,and that's not a bad thing
Stay positive Detroit
You have Chicago and San Francisco coming up
That gives you two weeks to try to help the defense before Minnesota
eighsse2
Footballguy
I know I'm just a biased/greedy Gibbs owner, but ... I feel like there's a realistic chance that giving Gibbs 70-80% of the RB touches, or whatever is expected now, is an improvement for the team over the near 50-50 split. Gibbs has averaged 33% more yards per carry on the season. That's a pretty big difference. Not trying to hate on the guy, but I really don't get why everyone likes Montgomery so much. He is fine. He is somewhere around average or a bit better among lead backs, I would figure. Gibbs could gain 2.4 ypc the rest of the way, who knows. But I honestly think Gibbs is an improvement over Montgomery on almost any play, other than maybe a 3rd or 4th & short.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
FairWarning
Footballguy
Maybe this late in the season yes. Over a entire season, he may not hold up speed wise.
Manster
Footballguy
Monty pounds away to allow Gibbs to be fresh, and use his speed. imo, Monty is one the best run finishers in the NFL.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You mean was?
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
… will be, next year, again.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Third opinion was the charm. We’ll see how it plays out. Still on the active roster, for now.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yep, Dan Campbell seemed pretty confident he would practice all next week and play in the divisional round.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
[Jeremy Reisman]
David Montgomery talked for the first time since his injury. Stellar media session.
Says he’s a full go. No pitch count.
David Montgomery talked for the first time since his injury. Stellar media session.
Says he’s a full go. No pitch count.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Wow, was it a tongue sprain?
Gigantor_IA
Footballguy
The Lion's hired Tashard Choice for RB coach. He was Gibb's college coach, so I could see a narrative that Gibbs will get more work. I have to remind myself that this is Dan's offense and he values Monty and the early down running game. So people may sleep on Monty again this year.
well, its also a matter of managing the asset that is Gibbs. no need to over play him when you have a starting Calibre RB on the bench who can take 50% of the carries.
its a nice luxury to have.
but come playoff time Gibbs usage should (in theory) go up. At least... thats how I'd manage it. but it may also be somewhat dependant on the opponent.
the nice thing about this is that Gibbs likely has a longer career because his body is taking less of a pounding early in his career.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - that, and they’re very different players with different skill sets.
I agree Monty will be underrated again next season - maybe even moreso as the Gibbs ascension narrative builds.
I’m not saying Gibbs isn’t an ascendant talent - he absolutely is. But there’s going to be plenty of work for Monty, including relevant work at the stripe. Not a lot of tush-pushing in DET, and Monty is good at salting games away. Nothing a Monty shareholder likes to see more than a 4th quarter with a 2-score lead.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Your last sentence is what scares me about Montgomery next year. The Lions had a nice schedule this past season and had a crazy high point difference. Their schedule this next year looks more difficult and that point differential is going to come down.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, but that’s not all Monty’s value. He’s used to spell Gibbs, he’s an above average receiver who gets more catches than people expect, and he’s extremely useful in short yardage, which includes the stripe.
I was saying that more as a “cherry on top”. Monty will continue to be plenty valuable next year.
Let others worries about that give you better redraft value, or buy-low opportunity in dynasty.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
What's his non-ppr dynasty value these days? I was offered Montgomery for my 2026 2nd rounder. My team will be competitive, but by no means a powerhouse so don't want to mortgage the future too much, but my team is also RB starved
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Seems like a perfect match based on what you said.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
He was a surprise, every week starter for me in 0.5 ppr last year.
The Gibbs hype going into last season depressed his value (likely even moreso this year, another year older)... and I got him for a bargain in our auction. Was pleasantly surprised with his production. Obviously the Detroit offense helped that a ton. He is approaching the age where I'd rather be a year too soon than a year too late... but depending on your team situation and the cost (that is your call, I can't really evaluate that part), I do think he has at least one more productive season and maybe two.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Redraft
6.06/6.09
-The trend is that he was TD dependent on the old OC that moved on to Chicago, how much of that do you want to believe?
-He still just turned 28 years old
-235 touches shrank to 221 touches and he missed 3 full games each of the last 2 seasons, injuries are just part of the gamble
His receptions more than doubled last season, I could see that slipping back closer to 20 but it still won't make a huge difference.
14 games and 13 TDs in '23
14 games and 12 TDs in '24
-People are thinking more like 8 this year?
What happens if he has to take the load on his own for a couple games this year? Works both ways
His floor seems like 180 carries and if he stays healthy could easily surpass 200 as I doubt they want to run Gibbs into the ground
Mid 6th round pick, is he a good option in the flex spot most weeks where you can go 3 and 4-wide at RB?
Pacheco went before him and he's never been this consistent, rookie RB Kaleb Johnson next and he's proven nothing so far
Feels like a pretty safe place to grab a RB at this point in the draft, just has limited upside but a return or duplication of the last 2 seasons in Detroit would make him good value here
6.06/6.09
-The trend is that he was TD dependent on the old OC that moved on to Chicago, how much of that do you want to believe?
-He still just turned 28 years old
-235 touches shrank to 221 touches and he missed 3 full games each of the last 2 seasons, injuries are just part of the gamble
His receptions more than doubled last season, I could see that slipping back closer to 20 but it still won't make a huge difference.
14 games and 13 TDs in '23
14 games and 12 TDs in '24
-People are thinking more like 8 this year?
What happens if he has to take the load on his own for a couple games this year? Works both ways
His floor seems like 180 carries and if he stays healthy could easily surpass 200 as I doubt they want to run Gibbs into the ground
Mid 6th round pick, is he a good option in the flex spot most weeks where you can go 3 and 4-wide at RB?
Pacheco went before him and he's never been this consistent, rookie RB Kaleb Johnson next and he's proven nothing so far
Feels like a pretty safe place to grab a RB at this point in the draft, just has limited upside but a return or duplication of the last 2 seasons in Detroit would make him good value here
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Who is thinking that? With this offense I think it's a mortal lock Monty hits double-digits barring injury.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The best thing about Goff in fantasy is knowing he's not going to vulture your goal line back. 10+ seems reasonable.
Added reason would be a HC who goes for it on 4th down at the highest rate in the league.
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To me, Monty feels like a buyer beware guy to me, that could also crush his ADP if anything happens to Gibbs. Like, arguably no RB has a higher ceiling should another player get injured. So, I hesitate to drop him too low, but I'd really want him as a more of a Flex/RB3.
The thing I think people are overlooking the most with the Lions is they scored 564 points as a team last year. That's 90 more than any season in their team history and was 39 more than any other team in 2024. Regression would be happening even if they hadn't lost anyone this offseason, and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL and their OC. They could (and likely will) score 100 fewer points this season (which still would have been good for 6th last season) so for me, in a situation like that, I get a little more nervous about the TD dependent guys which Monty often is.
Its hard for me to see a case for Kaleb Johnson over him, unless you just think he'll get Najee's old role, but that 100% speculation as there has been nothing to suggest that's even on the table, Pacheco I can see a case for, as he has at least done it (he was league winner down the stretch in 2023) just not for a whole season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Read what TDogg posted, it echos a lot of opinions out there if you search, I never said I agree with it, think i gave Monty a thumbs up at this price, yes/no?
Still looks solid but others do have a differing opinion on him or feel his ceiling is. little lower this season
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Nice post, do you still feel he's over valued in the middle of the 6th? I understand there might be others you would draft around there, any specific RBs or WRs you like better around there?
So, when I did my top-150 a week ago, I had Monty at #66, with the note that I wanted to be lower on him, but the upside if Gibbs goes down is so high. Honestly, a week later, I think I would have him more around #80 or so. I think he needs Gibbs to go down to really pay off, and there is a decent chance a new OC just decides Gibbs should be the clear starter, and Monty is a 40% player. He's a guy I'm not trying/hoping to end up with.
Monty is kind of all over the map in drafts. I've been seeing him more in round 5 than round 6, but I play in 1/2 PPR and non-PPR leagues too, so maybe that's influencing that.
As for guys I regularly see going after him that I prefer:
QB-Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield (I've noticed he's been falling to round 8 of late, and I have no idea why)
RB-Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Warren (I get him a lot even later), both Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones (very high on the Vikings)
WR-Travis Hunter, Rashee Rice (I get why others wouldn't, I'm a risk taker), Chris Olave, Courtland Sutton (and I'm not even a big fan of his), Rome Odunze
TE-TJ Hockenson, Sam LaPorta
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
2023 ADP: 80, RB28. Finished RB15 ppg in PPR (14 g)
2024 ADP: 55, RB21. Finished RB16 ppg in PPR (14 g)
2025 ADP: 64, RB21 as of 8/18.
2024 ADP: 55, RB21. Finished RB16 ppg in PPR (14 g)
2025 ADP: 64, RB21 as of 8/18.
