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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)

Dr. Dan said:
they've had predraft visits with some of the top RBs. I dont know why they'd waste their time, or their limited predraft visits. they've visited with rbs projected to go rounds 2 or 3. :shrug:
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Who do ya mean? Williams and Singletary? Robinson tries to add a third-down back every year. He did it a couple times in TB too. I don't know if it's a love for Kevin Faulk and Lewis in NE or...somehow he has this fascination. 

I know they spoke with Bryce Love some time ago. I still don't think there's a genuine vibe on where this guy will go. Great back, overcoming ACL, bad year for RBs, and ...everything is reasonable from round 1 to round 5. 

 
Lewis was so knocked down the pecking order last year. Fluellen and he shared snaps this spring and it wouldn't be that surprising if Flu was the primary backup. Depending on where you look, Lewis is blamed for 10-15 sacks. While that is out of character for the former Patriot, it's not like the Titans are going to gloss over that.

Henry's awesome close to the season, of course.

People are kidding themselves if they think 2018 offseason is the same as 2019. Lewis has to be the Patriot Lewis if he's going to push Henry.  He's gotta step way up to have that discussion again

 
### #### it. FBG had to feature Henry and throw his two monster games in my face again. Owner from the start and was ready to sacrifice my first born for Dion Lewis to go away or Henry to start chaining together solid games which never happened....until those two games. But on season’s end I finally said it! I’m not gonna keep you this year! (Keep 4 league) Now here I am - wondering if the monster I have waited to unleash itself is finally going to happen. I think I’m more concerned about watching him blow up on another team after I have suffered through the growing pains from day one. If he blows up - he’s gonna be on MY team! But at the same time...am I willing to risk him burning me - one. more. time. 

So painful. 

 
electric Ape said:
Henry is a very good football player but he’s also a uniquely limited player. He has agility and quickness issues that are glaring. If we were to grade only the first 0.5 second of runs he’s one of the least effective backs in the league. I’ve also seen him display a lot of way below average pass blocking. On the flip side, he has incredible strengths. But he’s one of the players where the disconnect between the fantasy community and the NFL community’s evaluation of him is probably the highest. Fantasy players tend to zero in on the freakish size/speed metrics and the monstrous runs and ignore some of the coaching challenges of deploying a player with Henry’s limitations.

And that leads to a second point. According to this message board, pretty much every NFL coaching staff is stupid. Some of them are, but not nearly as many as fantasy players want to believe. I think you’ll get better results if you first assume that the coaches have reasons behind their decisions and try hard to figure out what those reasons might be. The stupid coach explanation should only be last resort thinking when you’ve exhausted all other possibilities. In Henry’s case I think you have to ignore a lot of tape to completely blame his lack of usage on coaches.

As far as 2019 goes, Henry profiles like a classic front runner. If the Titans are a good team and run plays are blocked cleanly he is the perfect back to amplify the results beyond what close to any other RB could deliver. There isn’t any RB in the draft or left in free agency that can threaten or come close to Henry’s effectiveness in “good” scenarios. On the other end of that spectrum, if the Titans struggle Henry has more downside than a normal top 20 RB and is vulnerable to getting outplayed by even a journeyman RB who plays better in the passing game and gets trapped in the backfield less.
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good post!!

 
Elevencents said:
### #### it. FBG had to feature Henry and throw his two monster games in my face again. Owner from the start and was ready to sacrifice my first born for Dion Lewis to go away or Henry to start chaining together solid games which never happened....until those two games. But on season’s end I finally said it! I’m not gonna keep you this year! (Keep 4 league) Now here I am - wondering if the monster I have waited to unleash itself is finally going to happen. I think I’m more concerned about watching him blow up on another team after I have suffered through the growing pains from day one. If he blows up - he’s gonna be on MY team! But at the same time...am I willing to risk him burning me - one. more. time. 

So painful. 
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your 1st instincts are usually the best.

 
Boy I was trying to give him away midseason. If the hype gets high enough to sell I'll move and not look back. He must be fetching a first plus at this point to right? 

 
tangfoot said:
I wouldn’t pay a 2020 1st, much less a plus
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Most of us probably would give a future 1st, unless it's looking like a very high 1st. 

I wouldn't want to set Henry as the core of my team by any stretch, but I'm good with him being my rb2 or even rb1 if I wait on the position. 

I'm happy with him as my RB1 in a dynasty (Superflex) where I went heavy WR and QB. 4th rounder. 

 
tangfoot said:
I wouldn’t pay a 2020 1st, much less a plus
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We all evaluate in our own way. I wouldn't trade Henry for a random first--it would have to be at least a 1.04 or higher.  Most RBs who are first round picks in rookie drafts do not amount to anything whereas Henry has proven he can play at a very high level and is still pretty young.

 
az_prof said:
We all evaluate in our own way. I wouldn't trade Henry for a random first--it would have to be at least a 1.04 or higher.  Most RBs who are first round picks in rookie drafts do not amount to anything whereas Henry has proven he can play at a very high level and is still pretty young.
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Yeah I would easily pay a 2020 1st for Henry. Nobody is selling him for that cheap, though. If I knew it was going to be early then I would probably hesitate.

 
He's a free agent next year. I would keep that in mind for trades. He isn't the guy for every style of offense. Taylor Lewan doesn't play for every team either. 

 
az_prof said:
We all evaluate in our own way. I wouldn't trade Henry for a random first--it would have to be at least a 1.04 or higher.  Most RBs who are first round picks in rookie drafts do not amount to anything whereas Henry has proven he can play at a very high level and is still pretty young.
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My point was that I wouldn’t pay a -2020- 1st for him. It’s a class that is expected to be both deep at RB and WR, I’m not giving up a shot at a cornerstone stud on the off chance that Henry finally gets his #### together and plays an entire season the way he played 3 games at the end of 2017 and 2018. 

 
Inconsistency is Henry's consistency, but I don't think it's his fault.  In 2018, he finished as RB16, making him a high-end RB2, but half of his games he wasn't even a RB3.  He is built like a mack truck, and has thrived with a large workload, but TEN doesn't seem to want to do that on a consistent basis.  Five games under 10 carries, and another 5 games with 12 or less.

In his 47 game career...

1 - 5 carries - 7 games, 19/44 = 2.3 YPC

6 - 10 carries - 20 games, 160/656 = 4.1 YPC

11 - 15 carries - 11 games, 136/653 = 4.8 YPC

16+ carries - 9 games, 186/940 = 5.1 YPC

Only SEA had a higher run/pass ratio than TEN last year, yet their star RB had 12 or less carries in 10 games.  And as a pass catcher, he isn't as bad as you'd think.  He just doesn't get enough targets.  His 78% catch rate and 9.5 YPR rivals Dion Lewis's 82% catch rate and 7.6 YPR.  Henry wears down defenses, and should be getting 300 touches every season.  He has no real injury history, so why is TEN underutilizing him?  He had only 230 touches last year.  He isn't made of glass.

 
The last 4 games for Henry saw him secure 90 touches (87 rushes) on 134 snaps.  That’s an unheard of touch/snap ratio.  

Ultimately, stat that rings most relevant to me in trying to ascertain if the Titans will truly commit to Henry is his touch/game rate the last two seasons.

16 touches/game in wins

9.2 touches/game in losses

This feels pretty basic and what with his breakout during December 2018, I think he gets bellow treatment until he shows he’s not the guy.

 
tangfoot said:
My point was that I wouldn’t pay a -2020- 1st for him. It’s a class that is expected to be both deep at RB and WR, I’m not giving up a shot at a cornerstone stud on the off chance that Henry finally gets his #### together and plays an entire season the way he played 3 games at the end of 2017 and 2018. 
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This is said almost every year. Henry > random '20 1st

Now, if the team giving the 1st is terrible, and we feel good about it being in the top third of the draft, then maybe you could convince me to take the pick. 

 
dipandglide said:
This is said almost every year. Henry > random '20 1st

Now, if the team giving the 1st is terrible, and we feel good about it being in the top third of the draft, then maybe you could convince me to take the pick. 
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Nope, ANY first round 2020 should be far better than an aged Henry either on a new team or stuck in the hell that is Tennessee. 

 
tangfoot said:
Nope, ANY first round 2020 should be far better than an aged Henry either on a new team or stuck in the hell that is Tennessee. 
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The dude has no injury history, and has only 501 rushes and 39 catches in his 3 yr career.  540 touches for a 25 year old RB?  Aged - hardly.  TEN hell - possibly.

 
Good to see others are putting him in the first+ value category. Makes me feel better about shopping him. I might try to move him to our league's last place team. He's a disaster and will be top 3 again. I'd take the value of a top 3 pick plus a RB with upside (just for reference, he has underwhelming sophs Freeman and RoJo, that's the level I think is fair to aim for). I think that final stretch to end the season added some real value in the eyes of casual non-owners.

Agree with others I would not move him for a pick that could be mid or late first. And regardless would absolutely need a prospect coming back.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
The last 4 games for Henry saw him secure 90 touches (87 rushes) on 134 snaps.  That’s an unheard of touch/snap ratio.  

Ultimately, stat that rings most relevant to me in trying to ascertain if the Titans will truly commit to Henry is his touch/game rate the last two seasons.

16 touches/game in wins

9.2 touches/game in losses

This feels pretty basic and what with his breakout during December 2018, I think he gets bellow treatment until he shows he’s not the guy.
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I liked this post after the first paragraph, but then I kept reading and you came to the absolute opposite conclusion i thought you would. 

I seriously doubt Henry getting that kind if workload through an entire season and being fresh enough to stay effective. 

Weeks 13-16 Henry was relatively fresh not being used all season, defenses were banged up and worn down, and he played 4 bottom 33% rushing defenses that had pretty much given up on the season.

Yet we can expect Henry to be used a lot, BUT defenses wont expect it, he can hold up even though hes never had that kind of workload, and we can expect him to have the same efficiency as he had the last 4 weeks? 

I dont understand what's so basic/obvious that you would throw away a career of usage and results in favor of 4 games, two of which are outlier performances for any rb and vs bottom 33% rushing defenses 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I liked this post after the first paragraph, but then I kept reading and you came to the absolute opposite conclusion i thought you would. 

I seriously doubt Henry getting that kind if workload through an entire season and being fresh enough to stay effective. 

Weeks 13-16 Henry was relatively fresh not being used all season, defenses were banged up and worn down, and he played 4 bottom 33% rushing defenses that had pretty much given up on the season.

Yet we can expect Henry to be used a lot, BUT defenses wont expect it, he can hold up even though hes never had that kind of workload, and we can expect him to have the same efficiency as he had the last 4 weeks? 

I dont understand what's so basic/obvious that you would throw away a career of usage and results in favor of 4 games, two of which are outlier performances for any rb and vs bottom 33% rushing defenses 
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His absurd usage late in the season certainly isn’t sustainable...not from a durability perspective because a prorated/projected snap count over a 16 game season of 536 is actually fairly pedestrian.  But to project 360 touches to those 536 snaps over 16 games...I can’t imagine an offense being built/executed like that over 16 games.

However, in 2016...he never outsnapped Murray.  In 2017, he did it twice (only counting when Murray was active - 15 games)...and even in those two games, the margins were 2 and 1 snaps.

In 2018...during the seasons first 13 weeks, he outsnapped Dion Lewis but once...by a margin of 2.  Bottomline is he’s always been the compliment.  But those last three weeks, he outsnapped Lewis 49/23, 35/22, 26/24.  To me, that feels like a core change in usage philosophy.  We’re also not talking about some 3-10 team tinkering with young guys and lineup combos with the primary thought in mind of sizing up next season...Titans were fighting for their playoff lives.

Ultimately with Henry, I think the truth will be in the middle of what we saw the last 4 games and what his first three seasons looked like prior to that, when on a week-to-week basis...you almost had no clue on what to expect from the guy.  His career touch/game rate up until those last 4 weeks was 10.2...then it exploded.  Will it be 22-23 like it was that last month?  Doubtful...but I can certainly now see him in that 17-18 range which would equate to 270-290 range.

 
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I traded away Henry and Kerryon Johnson for Gurley several months ago in a PPR dynasty league. I would give anything to go back in time and reject that offer. Watch fellas, he's going to blow up like he did late last year, because of me. You are welcome.  :bag:

 
ffmail4me said:
I traded away Henry and Kerryon Johnson for Gurley several months ago in a PPR dynasty league. I would give anything to go back in time and reject that offer. Watch fellas, he's going to blow up like he did late last year, because of me. You are welcome.  :bag:
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Two "may not ever be" guys for a true stud with injury concerns.  Enjoy the production you get out of Gurley, it's likely to be more than Henry and Johnson combined.  Well, at least for the weeks he's healthy.

 
Would love to see him get 22-25 carries game. Problem is this is the 3rd OC in 3 years with the Titans. and this current guy has zero, zippo,nada experience calling plays. he comes from the same Munchak borefest offense, through the worsening LaFleur offense. 

it's a shame that DH doesnt have a better run-first OC like B. Schottenheimer , or someone who'll use him like Dallas uses Elliott.

I don't think the tiger loses his stripes here, meaning DH will be used pretty much the same way he was last year and the season before that. a lesser Brandon Jacobs

 
I read somewhere over the last couple days that Ten was gonna be using some guy as a blockingback/Fullback. That should work out better for both Henry and Mariota I would think. At least somewhat above present rankings.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
The last 4 games for Henry saw him secure 90 touches (87 rushes) on 134 snaps.  That’s an unheard of touch/snap ratio.  

Ultimately, stat that rings most relevant to me in trying to ascertain if the Titans will truly commit to Henry is his touch/game rate the last two seasons.

16 touches/game in wins

9.2 touches/game in losses

This feels pretty basic and what with his breakout during December 2018, I think he gets bellow treatment until he shows he’s not the guy.
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Vegas would like to know your way of figuring out wins and losses before the game starts

 
Tanner9919 said:
Would love to see him get 22-25 carries game. Problem is this is the 3rd OC in 3 years with the Titans. and this current guy has zero, zippo,nada experience calling plays. he comes from the same Munchak borefest offense, through the worsening LaFleur offense. 

it's a shame that DH doesnt have a better run-first OC like B. Schottenheimer , or someone who'll use him like Dallas uses Elliott.

I don't think the tiger loses his stripes here, meaning DH will be used pretty much the same way he was last year and the season before that. a lesser Brandon Jacobs
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In all fairness, neither did Matt LeFleur (and may the pack be happy with him) 

 
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Arctic Dawgs said:
I read somewhere over the last couple days that Ten was gonna be using some guy as a blockingback/Fullback. That should work out better for both Henry and Mariota I would think. At least somewhat above present rankings.
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That would be a sign of learning from past success. So unlikely from the Titans, unfortunately

;)

 
Tanner9919 said:
Would love to see him get 22-25 carries game. Problem is this is the 3rd OC in 3 years with the Titans. and this current guy has zero, zippo,nada experience calling plays. he comes from the same Munchak borefest offense, through the worsening LaFleur offense. 

it's a shame that DH doesnt have a better run-first OC like B. Schottenheimer , or someone who'll use him like Dallas uses Elliott.

I don't think the tiger loses his stripes here, meaning DH will be used pretty much the same way he was last year and the season before that. a lesser Brandon Jacobs
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He designed and called red zone plays. There were times he was overrided by LaFleur and once or twice by Vrabel. The Titans had a dunderhead play call that probably cost them a game, LaFleur lost his override ability then and it gave Smith a boost to his stock. Many believe Smith would have become the OC regardless of LaFleur leaving. The Titans red zone efficiency has always been very good and Mariota has always been best ever type stats in the red zone- I want to say 49 TDs and 2 INT but it's early and I don't feel like looking that up.

Smith learned under Joe Gibbs and had a special connection with Gibbs. There has never been a Gibbs disciple that didn't know the run game well

Mariota is regularly near the bottom in pass attempts. As they look to balance the O, he may pass more, but they're also hoping for a huge up-tick in offensive production.

Vrabel loves Henry and Fluellen, maybe too much

 
Arctic Dawgs said:
I read somewhere over the last couple days that Ten was gonna be using some guy as a blockingback/Fullback. That should work out better for both Henry and Mariota I would think. At least somewhat above present rankings.
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Most of the offseason has been the h-back ala Joe Gibbs. During the end of spring, Fluellen played FB better than the FB they signed. He has had an outstanding offseason and could maybe be a part of the O this year but he's been around for years n years and only has two carries. Every coach loves him but still...two carries.

Henry's college FB was with the Titans and the top rated and fifth rated. He was cut which caused a lot of inner fussing . They scooped him back up last year when Seattle released him. He was with the team for 2-3 weeks and there were lots of great reports about the line blocking better, Henry running better, and a way better attitude by all on offense- too much choir boy stuff before. He was released with the typical NFL teams don't use FBs anymore statement but he again played a key part. Henry would soon after run with authority and become what we all saw. Eddie George (a regular at the facility) spoke of Fowler as a key to Henry's resurgence as well. There's a hypocrisy in wanting a well crafted offense of high character guys and wanting some nastiness on running plays. Lewan is a best ever type tackle when he is fired up and somehow the whole offense feeds off a tackle. He's a very good tackle when he's being a good boy, but he's a different animal when a big hit or two have happened. He'll run everywhere and hit everyone and is just woah! The other linemen see their buddy doing well and they get fired up. Ot course the offense does better if the line is dominating and it just all changes. Lewan will make dopey penalties and cost them too. They've always been trying to tone this down and yet enjoy it too, in another hypocrisy. Sooo alot happened when Fowler started smashing guys last year. I think Fluellen and Henry have practiced the FB spot in case they need a spark. I don't think it's as a regular occurence.

Fluellen has greatly improved as a runner after a decent college career. The story of the offseason has been that he's neck n neck with Lewis to backup Henry. I don't think they want to wreck his progress as a runner and convert him to FB.

Jonnu is an awesome down the field blocker and eh in line blocker. He has played a lot of move TE and H-back during his time. His return and the Gibbs influence should make him the lead blocker when one is needed. Delanie is still so athletic and he's a smart veteran. His blocking was missed last year. While he is mainly the receiving TE, there are many times he is the point/lead on running downs. It's unclear how they go easy on the older player so it's either he or Jonnu as the lead blocker 

 
Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website reports new OC Arthur Smith said he intends to "ride" contract-year RB Derrick Henry this season.

Henry turned 25 in January and is obviously coming off a monster finish to last season when he rushed for 625 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 carries (6.44 YPC) across five December contests. Smith is a complete unknown as a coordinator, but the Titans would be wise to stick with what worked down the stretch in 2018. And that was an offense centered around Henry. He's being drafted as an RB2 in fantasy. We've been through this with Henry in past offseasons, but this time it seems legit where the Titans actually want him to be their centerpiece, especially when Marcus Mariota has consistently been unable to stay healthy and/or produce on the field. Henry is playing for his next contract and should be motivated.

SOURCE: titansonline.com

Jul 16, 2019, 9:18 PM ET
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The Titans averaged 8 ypc Lewan's way. That suspension is significant for Henry predictions

A good camp and they should be fine, but we're talking an elite tackle and considering Henry might be elite, so "fine" is not necessarily OK.

Conklin was an all pro tackle as a rookie. It IS possible he's got that in him still as last year seemed to be a recovery year from an ACL. Most seem to think he's good not great and wouldn't predict this. It's a contract year and stranger things have happened then a guy regaining his rookie form during a contract year.

(Same sentiment over n over but it's such a valid point) The Titans have been expected to lose their first four. Many figured they would lean on Henry and work out whatever kinks with the new/old offense. There was some logic to trying XYZ against the best and if it succeeded, then they know it will work well the rest of the year. There's a point all this 0-4 talk gets to be too much and I do think we're already nearly there but...FF folks have to keep this in mind

 
Derrick Henry is in a walking boot after getting injured at Friday's practice.

Henry left practice early Friday and wasn't out there Saturday. Coach Mike Vrabel refused to provide an update when pressed this morning. The boot suggests Henry is dealing with some sort of ankle or foot issue, but details beyond that remain scarce. It could be minor. We'll just have to wait. Henry was an offseason puff-piece All Star after running roughshod through the entire league to close out 2018. He's expected to be the focal point of the Tennessee offense.

SOURCE: TitanInsider

Jul 27, 2019, 2:32 PM ET
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This may prove to be nothing, but between the walking boot and the Taylor Lewhan suspension, I’m dropping him a few spots.

 
#clickdiscipline is important in July. Everyone is anxious for news they think will clarify what they’ll do in four weeks (presuming redraft), but with six weeks before opening kickoff, I’m not gonna change rankings on speculation. Genuine injuries, sure, but a tight hammy or ankle sprain at this point is NBD. Nobody is getting a discount on Henry unless there’s real news.

He’s coming off the board early third in PPR mocks, I expect him to move up to late second by the time we get to Week 3 of PS. Regardless of current ranks, people will perceive he has less risk than the other young backs being drafted around him (Williams, Mack, Jones, Kerryon, Lindsey) and some of the vets have question marks (Gurley if he doesn’t play PS, Fournette, Freeman.)

I’m expecting him to be an ADP climber throughout August unless he has a genuine setback physically.

 
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports the Titans are "not worried" about Derrick Henry's lower leg injury.

Titans coach Mike Vrabel declined to provide a timetable for Henry's return earlier today, but Rapoport indicates Henry's ankle or foot injury "should not be a big deal." With no incentive to rush him back, Henry could easily miss up to a few weeks in training camp depending on the exact injury, but it looks like he's not in danger of missing regular season action. Expect Henry to be the focal point of the Titans offense in 2019 after breaking out in the second half of last season.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Jul 28, 2019, 1:56 PM ET
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I hear sprained ankle. Gonna do whatever it takes to get it healed and solid by week one

McNichols doing a good job in his place

 
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