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Aging Studs: Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry. How are you handling them this year? (1 Viewer)

Scoresman

Scoresman

Footballguy
One of the things I hate trying to guess every year are studs who are close to hitting the wall in terms of productivity. This year, it's once again Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry at the forefront of this discussion.

Last year, both of these guys were coming into the season having shown signs of slowing down in 2021. If I remember correctly, Henry's YPC had been declining, he had injuries the year before, his OL looked horrible and many were throwing the first round bust term around. He ended up with his second highest number of carries, third in yards/TDs. A very good year.

Kelce the same. He had a 2021 that showed signs he was declining, then came back in 2022 with his highest receptions and TDs. Hindsight says that we could have seen that coming with the departure of Tyreek, but many also thought he was getting older, and had maybe lost a step.

How are you handling these two this year? What info do you use to try and predict this sort of thing.
 
Dynasty: if I’m in contention and need a TE I’ll pay in trade to win a ship

Redraft: avoid at ADP, likely regret it all year.

Dynasty Startup (about to do one) - it vexes me. Im likely an avoid but if Kelce falls far enough I’ll grab him knowing it’s a short term investment. If I’m competing, boom. If I’m not I deal him to someone who is and boom. Kinda can’t lose so long as you get him at a “old guy” value in the draft.
 
I will likely avoid them both. Especially Kelce, since if you take him in the 1st or early 2nd round and he busts, you're pretty much screwed. You will be behind the 8 ball at each RB and WR position and TE is a wasteland on the wire in most years. But I am with HSG......I could regret not taking Kelce. But eventually Father Time wins.
 
I think with these sorts of players you ride them until the wheels fall off (whenever that is). Everyone else is aware of their age as well so unless you discount them significantly you may not find a buyer. Your only market due to age is a handful of the top contenders if they have a need. The best time to sell might be near the league trade deadline if one of the top teams has an injury or feel they are that one guy away.
 
Scoresman said:
One of the things I hate trying to guess every year are studs who are close to hitting the wall in terms of productivity. This year, it's once again Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry at the forefront of this discussion.

Last year, both of these guys were coming into the season having shown signs of slowing down in 2021. If I remember correctly, Henry's YPC had been declining, he had injuries the year before, his OL looked horrible and many were throwing the first round bust term around. He ended up with his second highest number of carries, third in yards/TDs. A very good year.

Kelce the same. He had a 2021 that showed signs he was declining, then came back in 2022 with his highest receptions and TDs. Hindsight says that we could have seen that coming with the departure of Tyreek, but many also thought he was getting older, and had maybe lost a step.

How are you handling these two this year? What info do you use to try and predict this sort of thing.
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I don't think either player showed signs of decline in 2021. Henry got hurt, and Kelce had a normal Kelce season (his 2020 was a career year) I think people avoiding either were being a little over paranoid about age/workload cliffs, which can exist, but are no locks, especially with truly elite talents. All cliffs are created differently, in my opinion, and players being a certain age feels like bad process to me.

I can argue Kelce as high as #3 overall this season, certainly no lower than #6. No reason at all to expect any cliff there. Henry has more issues, mainly being his team possibly turning to a rookie QB (a potentially raw one at that) and no major proven passing threats, although that could lead to Henry again being more involved in the passing game. In Henry's case, I can see him being more of an early to mid 3rd round pick.

The info I use to predict decline, is guys who look like they have lost something, and also have fluid offensive situations. I think age/mileage is usually only a part of it, often its injuries or coaching/supporting cast changes.

Guys I think fit that bill a bit this year are: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, James Conner, Calvin Ridley, and Rachaad White. I think all those guys have had their best seasons or are being overhyped on potential that I think they are unlikely to meet. Cook and Conner are probably the only 2 that I'm dinging for age/workload.
 
What if there both available in a FA auction. How much would you spend and how long would you sign them for?
 
travdogg said:
I think people avoiding either were being a little over paranoid about age/workload cliffs, which can exist, but are no locks, especially with truly elite talents. All cliffs are created differently, in my opinion, and players being a certain age feels like bad process to me.
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Right, cookie cutter stats rarely account for the top talents.
 
ratbast said:
Kelce could fall off a cliff and still be top 3.
Henry doesn’t fetch enough to sell.
Ride on.
Click to expand...

Kelce has never been a speed demon, working the open areas in the zone and Mahomes eye for him
will keep him a big factor for at least 2 more season.
 
For Kelce and Henry it wasn't just age. In Kelce's case, his numbers were climbing every year until 2021 when they dipped a little. This triggered a lot of talk about his age and possible decline, plus double coverage with Tyreek Hill leaving.

Henry got hurt in 2021 but his YPC also dipped.
 
Scoresman said:
For Kelce and Henry it wasn't just age. In Kelce's case, his numbers were climbing every year until 2021 when they dipped a little. This triggered a lot of talk about his age and possible decline, plus double coverage with Tyreek Hill leaving.

Henry got hurt in 2021 but his YPC also dipped.
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Not to make it too much about last year, but I don't know why those were seen as potential falling off points. Both Kelce and Henry had historically good 2020 seasons, it was unreasonable to not expect some regression. Kelce had the best season in the history of the TE position, Henry had a top-5 all-time rushing season and was the #1 fantasy RB when he got hurt in 2021.
 
rustycolts said:
What if there both available in a FA auction. How much would you spend and how long would you sign them for?
Click to expand...
Kelce has been available as a FA in back to back seasons in my 16tm tiered PPR salary cap league
Last year received a FA contract that amounted to just under 30% of a team's total salary
This year he received a FA contract that is 35% of a team's total salary
 
eNdblu said:
rustycolts said:
What if there both available in a FA auction. How much would you spend and how long would you sign them for?
Click to expand...
Kelce has been available as a FA in back to back seasons in my 16tm tiered PPR salary cap league
Last year received a FA contract that amounted to just under 30% of a team's total salary
This year he received a FA contract that is 35% of a team's total salary
Click to expand...
We have a salary cap of 240 million. I have 62 million to play with. I was thinking of bidding 20 million on him. Too much?
 
rustycolts said:
eNdblu said:
rustycolts said:
What if there both available in a FA auction. How much would you spend and how long would you sign them for?
Click to expand...
Kelce has been available as a FA in back to back seasons in my 16tm tiered PPR salary cap league
Last year received a FA contract that amounted to just under 30% of a team's total salary
This year he received a FA contract that is 35% of a team's total salary
Click to expand...
We have a salary cap of 240 million. I have 62 million to play with. I was thinking of bidding 20 million on him. Too much?
Click to expand...
All depends on your league's FA market and your team's makeup. Your bid is just over 8% of your total salary. That bid was passed within seconds of our FA auction opening the past 2 seasons.
If you think he's the missing piece, go hard for him.
 
For redraft, I am fading. There’s just too many other players around their ADP who don’t have such major age risk.
 
Good question, and two of the older players I've thought most about this offseason

I'm buying if the price is right (cliche, I know). This is a great time of year to acquire guys like this. Both move the needle if healthy, even if they're 70% of what they've been. I'd buy Kelce for a late 1st and Henry for an early second. I'd add a young throw-in piece or a 3/4th if it gets a deal done. Just know these guys are retiring on your team. That's ok if you're positioned to win now!
 
I've got Henry in 1 dynasty league. I've won the title 3 straight years, despite only 1 year of clearly being the best team.

Part of me thinks ride it til the wheels fall off. Part of me thinks get younger before all the older guys lose their value.
I've got Henry/Chubb/Hill who don't have many seasons left.

I've shopped Henry pretty aggressively this off-season. Best offer I've gotten is 2.09. Probably going to ride it out for now.
 
jm192 said:
I've got Henry in 1 dynasty league. I've won the title 3 straight years, despite only 1 year of clearly being the best team.

Part of me thinks ride it til the wheels fall off. Part of me thinks get younger before all the older guys lose their value.
I've got Henry/Chubb/Hill who don't have many seasons left.

I've shopped Henry pretty aggressively this off-season. Best offer I've gotten is 2.09. Probably going to ride it out for now.
Click to expand...
You ride it out if that's the best you can do. Just wait it out and bail mid-season if you have to. People only care about picks/youth right now. That changes when points start to matter.
 
I think it’s nuts to combine these two particular players into one talking point.

Kelce is a zone buster, attached to the best QB in the league on a very high scoring offense. He showed no signs of slippage and even if he does show signs this year, he’s almost certainly going to put up big numbers as long as he’s healthy.

Henry is a 29 year old running back on a bad, rebuilding team and showed plenty of signs of slippage last season.

In dynasty, it depends on what you can get and how much of a contender you are. I’d be much more motivated to move Henry and would be looking more at package deals than just dealing him for a pick. You’re more likely to confuse the other team with your offer and get good value that way. Kelce is the single biggest win now piece in the game so I’m acting accordingly.

In redraft, don’t know his ADP but I seriously doubt I’m taking him in the first three rounds. Or, at all. Kelce? Pfffft. I take him same place as last year depending on scoring settings. I mainly play TE premium and he’d still be a 1st rounder for me most likely. Haven’t spent the time on rankings or anything but yeah, feels like a 1st round pick off the top of my head.

Basically one is a green light, one is a red light. No yellow.
 
What if Henry is traded after the season starts and lands on a team with real Playoff hopes and talent to surround him?
Especially if a RB goes down with injury on a team with deep playoff aspirations.
 
I know he's still not "old" but how about we toss Mike Evans into this (the most underrated WR of our time)?

Will be 30 when the season starts.
 
The production from both Henry and Kelce far exceed their perceived value in trade terms. I haven't been able to get a perceived mid to high first for either in the last 12 months so I'm not about to cut either loose. Truth is, even with declines in production, both are still high value players.
 
Unless you have a legit chance to win this year then I'd trade Henry faster than you can think it. As far as Kelce goes, I'd take a 1st and 3rd round right now in Dynasty. Kelce is a stud but I'm an ageist, that wall is coming.
 
JohnnyU said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Henry is unlikely to be rostered by me anywhere. I would draft Kelce happily
Click to expand...
Henry was just traded in one of my dynasty leagues for the 1.11

Edited to change "He" to Henry.
Click to expand...
Not a fan of that trade at all. Would much rather "go down with the ship" than just give a guy like that away. At the very least would have waited until midseason, when teams are more desperate for help, assuming this team isn't a contender at all. Great move for the guy trading for Henry I think.

1.11 in my rookie draft was Bryce Young.
 
travdogg said:
... and Rachaad White. I think all those guys have had their best seasons
Click to expand...

Ouch. He's still a kid -- not like Kelce and Henry. You're more saying White is JAG who'll get readily surpassed more than you're saying White will decline, right?
 
I have Travis Kelce in a keep-6 league. It's flavored more like a redraft than a dynasty -- keeping only six guys, you can't really hang on to young developmental players unless your overall roster is putrid.

Anyway, Kelce is still easily one of my top-6 players and it would be difficult to draft someone to replace him that produces even 2/3 of what Kelce does at TE. I always try to acquire a second, developmental TE behind a stud -- Kelce was once "the kid" sitting behind Antonio Gates on my team. Right now, I have Juwan Johnson ... who's absolute ceiling is probably 75% of what Kelce produces now. Still, I will have to cut Johnson going into the keeper-league draft and likely acquire another developmental TE.

The good TEs seem to be able to play a long time. Tony Gonzales, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates (though, yeah, hurt a lot those last few years), etc. Marcedes Lewis and Ben Watson, too, to name two lower-tier FF guys. This will be Kelce's age 34 season, as he turns 34 in October. For a good TE, that's not too bad.
 
I only just got Henry a few months ago for a second round rookie pick. Guy calls me a chump every few weeks in the chat and I'm on this end thinking I got the better of the deal.

Outside of the first round, I don't have extreme confidence in rookies.

I'm just expecting a decline period and not just a sudden "done" that sometimes happens with backs. It could be a year or two but at 1500 yards last year, I'm not concerned yet.

My thought is he can always go to Arthur's Falcons and be a goal line back. Sorry Bijan owners but that's probably happening some day and presented as saving some wear on Bijan
 
Doug B said:
travdogg said:
... and Rachaad White. I think all those guys have had their best seasons
Click to expand...

Ouch. He's still a kid -- not like Kelce and Henry. You're more saying White is JAG who'll get readily surpassed more than you're saying White will decline, right?
Click to expand...
Yeah, my post was mostly saying that age, while sometimes an indicator or decline, isn't usually the best reason why someone is over or under valued, and that sometimes you are better getting out on the 24-year-old RB than the 29-year-old. My point (well one of them anyway) is that older players are sometimes underrated in dynasty, and younger players are often overrated. People looking to sell before the bottom drops out, are often too willing to sell for something that will never be as valuable as that older player is right now. I look at my dynasty team that won a title last year, it has a young-ish core, but I don't make the title game without Henry, and don't win the title without Mike Evans.

I do think White's ceiling is probably low-end RB2. So that is basically JAG territory for a "3-down" RB. I'm not saying White will fall short of what he did in 2022, I'm saying if you are not a believer there will never be a better time to get out than now.

Side note: I don't think its unreasonable to suggest Derrick Henry outscores Rachaad White over the next 4 years.
 
One thing I learned from this thread is that everybody seems to be playing Dynasty these days over redraft except me.
 
Doug B said:
I have Travis Kelce in a keep-6 league. It's flavored more like a redraft than a dynasty -- keeping only six guys, you can't really hang on to young developmental players unless your overall roster is putrid.

Anyway, Kelce is still easily one of my top-6 players and it would be difficult to draft someone to replace him that produces even 2/3 of what Kelce does at TE. I always try to acquire a second, developmental TE behind a stud -- Kelce was once "the kid" sitting behind Antonio Gates on my team. Right now, I have Juwan Johnson ... who's absolute ceiling is probably 75% of what Kelce produces now. Still, I will have to cut Johnson going into the keeper-league draft and likely acquire another developmental TE.

The good TEs seem to be able to play a long time. Tony Gonzales, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates (though, yeah, hurt a lot those last few years), etc. Marcedes Lewis and Ben Watson, too, to name two lower-tier FF guys. This will be Kelce's age 34 season, as he turns 34 in October. For a good TE, that's not too bad.
Click to expand...
I'm in a keep 5 league so I see your points. I also have Henry so there the clock is obviously ticking more despite the age difference.
 
I traded FOR Kelce last year and got to the final game. Will try to ride him again this year unless the rest of the squad falls apart, and then I'll try to flip him for '24 picks
 
Just as a general aside about TE wear-and-tear, especially receiving TEs: Do they generally not get blown up very often? I mean, of course football is a violent game and all ... and many TEs do block and get caught up in the wash.

It just seems like a lot of the high-reception TEs often avoid inline blocking duty, run a lot of short-ish "low-risk" routes (not usually hung out to dry), and don't trade on sheer footspeed (which WILL decline with age). For certain TEs with certain roles ... it seems like a lot of aspects of their jobs align to allow them to play at a high level for longer than most other positions.
 
League Champion said:
Unless you have a legit chance to win this year then I'd trade Henry faster than you can think it. As far as Kelce goes, I'd take a 1st and 3rd round right now in Dynasty. Kelce is a stud but I'm an ageist, that wall is coming.
Click to expand...
I don't see anybody offering up a 1st and 3rd for Kelce at this point. I would be surprised you could get a 1st. Now in season when someone is making a run and needs a TE that is a different story. Right now I just don't see that happening.
 
Scoresman said:
One thing I learned from this thread is that everybody seems to be playing Dynasty these days over redraft except me.
Click to expand...
I play in 3 leagues, 1 dynasty, 1 4-player keeper (which is essentially a redraft) and 1 redraft. Its interesting to see some bleeding over strategies across leagues, such as older players being undervalued, and fringy younger players being overvalued.

As for this thread in particular, I think its just a case of dynasty leagues have more to talk about in May. Redraft (mainstream anyway, maybe not the average shark pooler) doesn't really pick up until July.

Gally said:
League Champion said:
Unless you have a legit chance to win this year then I'd trade Henry faster than you can think it. As far as Kelce goes, I'd take a 1st and 3rd round right now in Dynasty. Kelce is a stud but I'm an ageist, that wall is coming.
Click to expand...
I don't see anybody offering up a 1st and 3rd for Kelce at this point. I would be surprised you could get a 1st. Now in season when someone is making a run and needs a TE that is a different story. Right now I just don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
Which is crazy to me. I feel like if 4 years from now we looked back on this class, how many guys will have more value from 2023-2026 than Travis Kelce did? 3? 4? Its very possible its just Bijan that is better.
 
Gally said:
League Champion said:
Unless you have a legit chance to win this year then I'd trade Henry faster than you can think it. As far as Kelce goes, I'd take a 1st and 3rd round right now in Dynasty. Kelce is a stud but I'm an ageist, that wall is coming.
Click to expand...
I don't see anybody offering up a 1st and 3rd for Kelce at this point. I would be surprised you could get a 1st. Now in season when someone is making a run and needs a TE that is a different story. Right now I just don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
I disagree. I think Kelce still brings a 1st from contending teams.
 
JohnnyU said:
Gally said:
League Champion said:
Unless you have a legit chance to win this year then I'd trade Henry faster than you can think it. As far as Kelce goes, I'd take a 1st and 3rd round right now in Dynasty. Kelce is a stud but I'm an ageist, that wall is coming.
Click to expand...
I don't see anybody offering up a 1st and 3rd for Kelce at this point. I would be surprised you could get a 1st. Now in season when someone is making a run and needs a TE that is a different story. Right now I just don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
I disagree. I think Kelce still brings a 1st from contending teams.
Click to expand...
Uhh, yeah, of course Kelce is worth a 1st and more.
Hell, his startup ADP is putting him around rookie pick 3 this year.
 
JohnnyU said:
I disagree. I think Kelce still brings a 1st from contending teams.
Click to expand...
A contending team with a hole at TE sure. The majority of teams today I would say probably not. In season for sure and likely be a 1st plus if it is a player to put you over the top.
 
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