Grahamburn
Footballguy
Wish I could find that post where everyone laughed at me for calling him the best RB in the NFL.
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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Eric’s a member at our club. Played with him several times. Nice guy. Still looks like he could get 100 yards.
Dizzy
Footballguy
I told everyone I work with about this but they said they need proof. Please re-post if you find it!
TampaMike19
Footballguy
He is equivalent to Jefferson or a high end wr and rb combo. Jameson and Evan’s probably won’t get it done in combination with Hall (negativity towards jets right now)
Really? Henry's value (perceived value) is that high? I thought giving up a RB like Hall would be too much, but
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Seriously? Perceived value? The dude is dominating and looks far more lethal than Hall. The CeeDee owner offered him straight up for my HenryReally? Henry's value (perceived value) is that high? I thought giving up a RB like Hall would be too much, but
barackdhouse
Footballguy
^This was a post from 2018. He sure is excelling.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This was from Henry's 1st season as a workhorse when people were arguing he wasn't worth it in PPR leagues. He has 98 career TDs and counting...
And I'm also old enough to remember like 3 years ago when people were convinced he was washed because that's what happens with RBs.
He isn't other RBs he's the king. Kiss it.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
6 years, nice pull. I have a hard time finding my posts from 6 hours ago.
Yes, perceived value. Buy low, sell high, etc. Different ways of saying the same thing. Based on the few responses to my original post, Henry's perceived value is more than even I had thought (and my perception of his value was high, as I was hoping to trade for him). I was just asking/clarifying if his perceived value is as high as it appeared (by the post saying B Hall + might not be enough to pull him in a trade).Seriously? Perceived value? The dude is dominating and looks far more lethal than Hall. The CeeDee owner offered him straight up for my HenryReally? Henry's value (perceived value) is that high? I thought giving up a RB like Hall would be too much, but
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I knew I had talked him up big from the very beginning - you can search a specific thread for posts by just a specific author - and then I just went to the beginning of the list (I specifically wanted the bit about how he could arguably be on his way to not only being the best all time in HS and College, but he at least *could* get there in the NFL now. I mean we know Jeff Fisher got him off to a slow start in his career and as of right now he is just over 10,000 career yards but Emmitt Thomas and probably Walter are likely out of reach.
But at the same time he is on pace to be the 1st ever to break 2000 twice and I do think that he as well as the Ravens believe he can break Dickerson's record. The closer that gets to a plausible reality the more they're going to want to make it happen. I'm not sure the criteria for 'best ever' is simply total yards. An awful lot of us put Barry and Walter well above Emmitt. I'm personally with Steve McMichael that Walter is "the best football player of all time, I'm not talking running backs." That's an aside though. The TLDR here is that most folks, me included, would take the under on whether Henry really gets to that level of honor...
but if he did get there he is doing what would be needed... and then some...
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Quick aside on Walter Payton and longevity at the RB position which I think is relevant to what Henry is doing or might do...
I did a lovethread on Twitter on Walter a couple years back but here are the ridiculous stats:
Payton had PPR per game seasons of:
12.6 - rookie season 1975 - I might be wrong about how much he played here when I calculated this
17.6 (326 touches)
23.9 (366)
19.0 (383
20.4 (400
16.9 (363
15.6 (380
15.0 (180) - this is 1982 only 9 games played strike season
I'm (barely) too young to know what the narrative on Payton was at this point, but going into his 9th NFL season at the age of 29, Walter then did this:
16 GMs 314/1421/6 & 53 / 607 / 2
16 GMs 384/1684/11 & 45 / 368
16 GMs 324/1551/9 & 49 /483 / 2
16 GMs 321/1333/8 & 37 / 382 / 3
6 pass TDs during that span
That is:
20.0 PPR per game at 29yo
20.4 at 30yo
20.5 at 31yo
17.2 at 32yo
And he played every game in this split and got a SB ring. 2627 career touches before this split. 1524 touches during this split. He then took a victory lap in his last season at age 33 and got 179 more touches. 11.5 PPR as the backup to Neal Anderson.
Who says Henry can't do it for another 2-4 years?
I did a lovethread on Twitter on Walter a couple years back but here are the ridiculous stats:
Payton had PPR per game seasons of:
12.6 - rookie season 1975 - I might be wrong about how much he played here when I calculated this
17.6 (326 touches)
23.9 (366)
19.0 (383
20.4 (400
16.9 (363
15.6 (380
15.0 (180) - this is 1982 only 9 games played strike season
I'm (barely) too young to know what the narrative on Payton was at this point, but going into his 9th NFL season at the age of 29, Walter then did this:
16 GMs 314/1421/6 & 53 / 607 / 2
16 GMs 384/1684/11 & 45 / 368
16 GMs 324/1551/9 & 49 /483 / 2
16 GMs 321/1333/8 & 37 / 382 / 3
6 pass TDs during that span
That is:
20.0 PPR per game at 29yo
20.4 at 30yo
20.5 at 31yo
17.2 at 32yo
And he played every game in this split and got a SB ring. 2627 career touches before this split. 1524 touches during this split. He then took a victory lap in his last season at age 33 and got 179 more touches. 11.5 PPR as the backup to Neal Anderson.
Who says Henry can't do it for another 2-4 years?
Scoresman
Footballguy
It's amazing how for the vast majority of players, their bodies predictably start to break down and get slower, but there's this 1% of players who completely buck this trend
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There are others, I think Waldman for example, that have showed data that counter the RB cliff premise. And it comes down to a split between those with elite talent and those without. Elite athleticism and going relatively injury free are certainly common denominators (Frank Gore is a remarkable exception to that) but no RB is going to continue to have a job if they don't have that elite talent. So come 27-29 years old, regardless of whether they personally have fallen off an athletic cliff or are in the process of doing so or are still at their peak, the main question is can they produce and if they aren't that 1% elite superstar, then they are basically expendable from a purely business standpoint. And so then teams move on from them and that actually drives the data and narrative that there is this physical cliff. And I think it's more market driven. "If you're not elite and you're 27/28, but still in your prime, I'm probably gonna draft a rookie to replace you like yesterday."
Of course there are tons of data to back up the claim that there is a physical decline around that spot in the curve, and that process does hold a lot of water. Most RBs aren't elite in terms of talent. Most aren't elite in terms of athleticism. Most don't go relatively injury free. Remarkably few check all three boxes. But as fantasy managers we shouldn't be surprised when these guys that dominate the league are able to keep it going this long. Henry is so different than all the rest of them though. Ok I gotta go back to work. Ride on.
Insein
Footballguy
The way he's being used and the team being a Super Bowl contender makes me want to just hop aboard and see where it goes.
Runkle
Footballguy
I'm actually glad Balt blew those first two games and are in an actual competition now for the postseason seeding, they might not have the luxury of resting him much later on. They seem to recognize they need him to close out the wins and run the clock at the end of games now.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Equally amazing is that Lamar Jackson is also on pace for over 1,000 rush yards.
When projecting the Ravens, I remember seeing one recent year, around 2019 or so where they had a laughably outlier rushing season. Lamar had 1200+ and 3 RBs combined for about 2K. I remember thinking no way this could happen again, but it might.
When projecting the Ravens, I remember seeing one recent year, around 2019 or so where they had a laughably outlier rushing season. Lamar had 1200+ and 3 RBs combined for about 2K. I remember thinking no way this could happen again, but it might.
kutta
Footballguy
Right before he broke out I had him on the block for a 2nd round pick with no takers.
Tau837
Footballguy
Love the Walter shoutout. Here is a post I wrote about him in 2010:
I definitely think as time passes, people forget just how great Payton was. He is my favorite player of all time.
He WAS the offense.
QBs he played with: Bob Avellini, Bobby Douglass, Gary Huff, Virgil Carter, Vince Evans, Mike Phipps, Jim McMahon, Steve Fuller, Greg Landry, Rusty Lisch, Mike Tomczak, Doug Flutie, Jim Harbaugh. Heck, Payton himself lined up at QB a few times. Basically, Jim McMahon was the best he played with. That's not saying much.
Payton played with 1 Pro Bowl QB in 13 seasons: McMahon in 1985. (And why exactly did McMahon make the Pro Bowl? The Bears passing offense was 22nd in yards and 23rd in TDs... McMahon threw for 2392 yards and 15 TDs.)
Not only did he never play with a 1000 yard receiver, he never even played with a 900 yard receiver. In fact, only 3 times in his 13 year career did any Bears receiver top 800 yards, and only 3 other times did any Bears receiver top 700 yards. And there were no good receiving TEs, either. It should come as no surprise that no Bears WR (or TE) made the Pro Bowl during Payton's career.
To reinforce this, consider Chicago's pass yardage ranks during Payton's career: 23 (of 26), 28 (of 28), 21, 26, 26, 28, 28, 22, 17, 26, 22, 24, 14. They finished in the bottom quarter of the league 10 times in Payton's career.
Payton himself led the Bears in receptions 6 times, and had the second highest total 5 other times.
In his last few years, his offensive lines were pretty good, but for most of his career it wasn't. Two of Payton's linemen made the Pro Bowl a total of 5 times in his 13 seasons, all in his final 3 seasons: Jim Covert (1985, 1986), and Jay Hilgenberg (1985, 1986, 1987).
Despite the lack of support, he retired as the all time NFL leader in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, all purpose yards, and rushing TDs. He retired #1 in receptions and #2 in receiving yards for a RB in NFL history. He retired with the most 100+ yard rushing games and 1000+ yard rushing seasons in NFL history. And after missing a game in his rookie season, he didn't miss another game in the rest of his career, playing 186 straight games.
Aside from all that, Payton was arguably the most well rounded RB in history. He was a great runner, receiver, and blocker. He ran equally well to the outside and up the middle (or over the middle). He was great in short yardage and goalline situations as well as other running situations. He was the Bears' emergency QB, and he passed for 8 TDs in his career. He was the Bears' emergency kicker and punter for part of his career. He didn't return many kickoffs (17), but he averaged 31.7 yards per return, and led the NFL in kickoff return average the one season that he returned more than 2 kickoffs (1975). He was also known as a great leader, and he was such a great person and class act off the field, the NFL's man of the year award is named after him.
I think for all these reasons, he is the best RB, and possibly the best football player, in NFL history.
Dez
Footballguy
I wish I could find all the post where people called him washed and done
Even Barkley in PPR league?
I did not think he was washed but I thought he had regressed. I drafted him a few times so was not running from him, but he was not a target either and I was not wanting to roster him a lot. So all in all I'm on the L side of this outcome. I'm pretty anti-older RB, WR as well just not as much, and have posted such in these threads a ton and that approach has been rewarded more often then not so it's not an approach I'm jumping off but Henry is unique and that's something I should have factored in more.
But you all want to hear the worst take alive on Henry and from someone who would be considered to be an "expert" in real life football?
Randy Mueller. GM of two NFL teams, won executive of the year once. Was working for the The Athletic for a few years but recently got rehired as a Senior exec for the Saints. Well he was still working for The Athletic last year when free agency commenced and he penned an article ranking available free agents and I can't recall exactly where he put Henry but it way down the list and LOWER then Gus Edwards. Oof!
But you all want to hear the worst take alive on Henry and from someone who would be considered to be an "expert" in real life football?
Randy Mueller. GM of two NFL teams, won executive of the year once. Was working for the The Athletic for a few years but recently got rehired as a Senior exec for the Saints. Well he was still working for The Athletic last year when free agency commenced and he penned an article ranking available free agents and I can't recall exactly where he put Henry but it way down the list and LOWER then Gus Edwards. Oof!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Here is an update to the Henry/Walter longevity comparison. Today duing the Ravens game they put up a graphic of the most rushing yards per game in a season by a RB 30 years old or older. Henry is #1, but of course I couldn't help look to see how close Walter is on the list especially since the details of this comp were fresh in my mind because we had just been talking about it in here. And so I also added receiving yardage per game.
Note, Henrys numbers were prior to todays game so notch it down just a skosh but never the less, some special seasons there. Tiki nearly 150 scrimmage per game.
x.com
Note, Henrys numbers were prior to todays game so notch it down just a skosh but never the less, some special seasons there. Tiki nearly 150 scrimmage per game.
x.com
x.com
Runkle
Footballguy
Hey look they misused him today, gave him his lowest # of carries all season, and they got an L to show for it. Go figure.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
You guys might already know this but I didn't and was very impressed. Henry rushed for over 12,000 yards in high school. Wow. He had a 4200 yard season. My goodness.
Insein
Footballguy
Think of regular high school kids having to tackle and 17 year old Henry. That's just child abuse.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Ha ha. Yep. Even so those are Bo Jackson Tecmo Bowl numbers. For you young people Tecmo Bowl video game changed lives.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
If Henry finishes strong this year, and then has two more healthy, very good seasons with the Ravens (at this point probably more likely than not) - he's going to shoot up the all time great lists.
ETA: If I were to predict today, my guess would be Henry ends up 6th All Time.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Reminds me of you with Earl Campbell back in 2k8
Exactly. I was satisfied with my 24.2 PPR score.
Runkle
Footballguy
Drive started in the 3rd quarter. Let's see if they starters come out next drive. I'd doubt it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Nope. Dumb
Runkle
Footballguy
Hey look they misused him today, gave him his lowest # of carries all season, and they got an L to show for it. Go figure.
Completely dominated a hot Broncos team, and made it look easy. So, once again, "amazing how different the team looks when they play Henry like they're supposed to"
News to me too. That's insane. His senior year exact statline:
462att / 4261yds / 55 TD = 9.22ypc, 327ypgame
You may wonder about his receiving stats that year.... 2rec/22yds. Come on coach!
Other fun numbers... his 2024 pace:
339att / 2058yds / 23TD (6.07ypc) | 18rec / 213yd / 3.5TD
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