hamsterdam
Footballguy
In the even that it's a 50/50 split going forward, how likely is it that the Titans just run it 35+ times a game and they both end up with 15-20 carries a like against IND?
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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
jtd13
Footballguy
Hank nailed it. I don't have a ton of conviction about the decision at the moment, but I like Kamara's target floor better than the Titan RBs if both Murray and Henry are playing. In PPR I consider a target to be worth at least 2.5 carries for a RB, and I think last week was a worst-case scenario for Kamara in the passing game since the Saints jumped out to a big early lead.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Last season they ran the ball on 47% of their offensive plays and ran the ball 476 times or 30 times per game. Mariota runs a fair amount though (60 attempts last year) along with some runs by WR and TE they had 407 rushing attempts for the RBs or 25.4 RB runs per game.
This season they have run the ball on 46% of their offensive plays and ran the ball 165 times or 27.5 rushing attempts per game. They have 35 rushing attempts by non RB players so far (22 by Mariota in 5 games, 5 by Taywan Taylor, 4 by Fluellen, 2 by Walker, 1 by Matthews, 1 by Fowler) so they have 130 runs by the RB so far or 21.7 RB runs per game.
These numbers are down somewhat from last season and actually a higher frequency of runs by WR and so on in these first 6 games.
The Titans defense still has some holes especially in coverage I think, so that doesn't support them just being able to run the ball all game either.
So 35 times per game seems unlikely although it may happen a few times over the course of the year.
If they can get back to the 25 RB runs per game an even split likely looks more like 15 for Murray and 10 for Henry.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I apologize for my part in that. I don't know why it went the direction it did, obviously I thought it was an obvious mistake, but I know that I didn't help in stifling it sooner.
But it was the wrong move. FACT!!!!
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Apology is nullified by no change in behavior.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Maybe I missed something but I don't think you insinuated he was a "bad player". It was just the wrong move. Not that it would have made any difference either way. But you are correct. I don't think you need to apologize for anything.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh goodness no. I hope no one thought I was suggesting Henry was a bad player, I even said in my second post about it that I think it was just excitement from a young player (not sure I would have done differently).
As a player I think Henry is a monster wrapped in a beast wrapped in the love child of Galactus and Darkseid.
#BALLER!!!
Do you think Henry is a good start this Sunday against a Cleveland D only giving up 3.1 yds per carry? WIll the Titans be able to put Cle away in this game to give Henry a positive game script? We've been down this road before when Henry was supposed to be the hot play only to see Murray blow up that Sunday. I don't think you can trust Henry in this spot on the road vs a Cleveland team that's not allowing rb's to run on them but is allowing rb's to catch passes. I think it's more of a Murray game if he plays. I might be forced to start Henry with Lynch being my only other flex option but I won't feel comfortable about it. I think anyone who starts Henry this Sunday is setting them selves up to be let down again.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Bottom line is that Henry is not a safe start as long as Murray is playing and has the same role. Tennessee isn't good enough to assume they will win any game by a lot, even against Cleveland, so starting Henry means you could get some 4th quarter touches and maybe a good day in the end or another 5 carry day.
Truebluey
Footballguy
7 points. We've all seen teams fumble from the "victory formation", and if you're only up a score, you're vulnerable.
Being 2 scores up with 40 seconds left is much the safer option. Any coach will tell you that. A bad play can't hurt you.
Chaka
Footballguy
Again I have no problem acknowledging when I am wrong but I would really appreciate a specific example of a team 1) fumbling from a victory formation (because I cannot think of one) 2) the opponent scoring off that fumble.
And I disagree with the bolded in a big way.
SORRYSORRYSORRY Guys, guess I can't let it go.
Truebluey
Footballguy
Really, you can't think of mistakes and fumbles from running out the clock?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQz4BFbgARI&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjRlSxvgssE
Human beings are, unfortunately, all too fallible. Points on the board man, that's the name of the game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQz4BFbgARI&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjRlSxvgssE
Human beings are, unfortunately, all too fallible. Points on the board man, that's the name of the game.
kutta
Footballguy
Neither of these show a pro team fumbling from the victory formation.
I agree with Chaka. He should have gone down and guarantee the win. Those arguing otherwise, if there was 1:45 left on the clock, would you think otherwise? That's three victory formation snaps vs. the chance of 2 td's by Indy in 1:45. What is more risky?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is what was said:fred_1_15301 said:
Bad football implies something that a player should never do in a game, in this case scoring a TD.
If its bad football then the player is doing something bad that they should never do, ergo a bad player.
The reasoning given is that Henry could have fumbled the ball in the process of trying to score, he didn't. By that same reasoning Henry could have fumbled the ball while trying to go down after getting the first down as well.
The play under any other circumstance would be considered a great play, but because the game is almost already won, it is being considered bad football.
Thats just straight up wack logic in my opinion.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I want to start Henry, but I think I'm gonna run with Murray if he's suits up. The spread is only 5.5 and CLE will be at home so it should be close. Also, CLE has been stout vs the run, so Murray should be more active in the pass game.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I believe they were only up 7 before Henry's tdkutta said:
bulger2holt
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
They were. But that doesn't change my question. If Henry scores, they are up by 14.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Ah ok, I misread what you wrote.
Either way, I have no.problem at all with him scoring that td
There is a rarely discussed difference between Henry and Murray. Murray prefers single back sets while Henry prefers a FB.
Fowler only plays 15-20% of snaps. This year, as Henry received more carries, Jonnu and Delanie have lined up as a FB some.
For two years in a row, the Titans have averaged one more ypc with a FB than without and it's been a sore point with fans that they don't use Fowler more.
Fowler only plays 15-20% of snaps. This year, as Henry received more carries, Jonnu and Delanie have lined up as a FB some.
For two years in a row, the Titans have averaged one more ypc with a FB than without and it's been a sore point with fans that they don't use Fowler more.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
He’s been on my bench every game but one this year, and that one was a stinker.
Packaged him up with AP to a running back needy team for a WR1. Sold high on both.
He seems to have great perceived value, at least in my few leagues. Couldn’t prey him from one owner, and I got great value for him.
Figured some might be wondering about his value in redraft.
Packaged him up with AP to a running back needy team for a WR1. Sold high on both.
He seems to have great perceived value, at least in my few leagues. Couldn’t prey him from one owner, and I got great value for him.
Figured some might be wondering about his value in redraft.
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This....much ado about nothing. It's different if the lead is a single point or even tied, but the score put them up 2 TDs with under a minute to play. 2 V formation plays is pretty safe...say 99.99%? Protecting a 2 score lead with less than a minute left? We drop to what...maybe 99.6%? Seriously...too much talk about it. This is NOT the Westbrook scenario.
WiDDoW_MaKeR
Footballguy
The problem with Henry is that Murray is also playing well. He definitely isn't playing poorly enough to lose his role. Henry can earn more carries, and with Murray being dinged up, he may get more than usual... however, as long as Murray suits up, I can't trust Henry this year in FF.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Of course the run play was the right call, you need to re-read what I wrote I am not refuting that. But if Henry takes a knee at the 1 there are no more plays, the clock runs, and the game is over. It's a much taller order to score 1 TD when you don't possess the ball and there is 00:00 left on the clock. The "better" tactical play would have been for Henry to not score.
Last post on the subject, trying to keep this about Henry's play and value going forward.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Holy cow!! Are people STILL talking about if Henry should've taken a knee or not? JFC, let it go people! Nobody cares who is right or not. Plus, that Henry TD won me $3,000 on FanDuel, so yay for me.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Exactly! Everyone should just accept the FACT that Henry should have given himself up after the first, be happy he didn't and move on. Everyone wins!
#footballscience
Maybe I spoke too soon. This may put me in a position to debate Henry vs. Mckinnon.
DeMarco Murray - RB - Titans
Speaking Thursday, Titans coach Mike Mularkey admitted DeMarco Murray (hamstring) isn't guaranteed to play against the Browns.
Earlier this week, Mularkey was all sunshine on his running back's status. Thursday, he was talking contingency plans, saying the team could promote rookie Khalfani Muhammad from the practice squad if Murray doesn't play. It's a tacit admission Murray's status is in doubt. At this point, even if Murray plays, Henry will be the preferred fantasy back. Rotoworld's Week 7 rankings will be updated to reflect that.
Related: Derrick Henry
Source: Paul Kuharsky on Twitter
DeMarco Murray - RB - Titans
Speaking Thursday, Titans coach Mike Mularkey admitted DeMarco Murray (hamstring) isn't guaranteed to play against the Browns.
Earlier this week, Mularkey was all sunshine on his running back's status. Thursday, he was talking contingency plans, saying the team could promote rookie Khalfani Muhammad from the practice squad if Murray doesn't play. It's a tacit admission Murray's status is in doubt. At this point, even if Murray plays, Henry will be the preferred fantasy back. Rotoworld's Week 7 rankings will be updated to reflect that.
Related: Derrick Henry
Source: Paul Kuharsky on Twitter
Chaka
Footballguy
Doubt we find out before Sunday but it is an interesting development for Henry owners.
Chaka
Footballguy
If Murray is out I would leave a me shaped hole through the wall as I ran to put Henry into my lineup over Kamara.Figures. Not that I'm complaining but I'm not putting him in over Kamara or Zeke. And we have no flex.
I can see the upside to doing that but Henry's lack of catches makes me nervous along with the Brown's stout run D. But if Murray is officially OUT then...hmmmm indeed
Chaka
Footballguy
Henry has definitely not received a lot of attention in the passing game but he has been incredibly effective with his targets. Henry has 15 receptions for 161 yards (10.7 YPR) on 17 targets (88% catch rate) on his career.
Murray has been getting 2.8 targets/game this year (4.1 last year) so I would factor that into your decision if Murray is out.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Judging by the opponents they've faced, I think the Cleveland run D may be overrated.
The General
Footballguy
Loving that it's an early start so we'll know if Murray is out.
Muhammad was terrible and they barely gave him snaps in preseason. They won't call him up to play. Couldn't catch, couldn't block in college or in preseason. Maybe he got it together, but I doubt it.
They only use two though and have confidence in David Fluellen. He spent two years on the PS. FB Jalston Fowler is a talented FB that can run and catch well, not just a thug. He's probably their 4th option.
Antonio Andrews is a call away, keeping in touch and working out with some former teammates at the superhero mascot's gym. They'd sign him before Muhammad imo too.
They only use two though and have confidence in David Fluellen. He spent two years on the PS. FB Jalston Fowler is a talented FB that can run and catch well, not just a thug. He's probably their 4th option.
Antonio Andrews is a call away, keeping in touch and working out with some former teammates at the superhero mascot's gym. They'd sign him before Muhammad imo too.
Ranked #9 against RBs in my PPR scoring system.
A sampling of what they've done:
* L. Bell -- 10-32, 3-15
* J. Allen -- 14-66-0; 5-35-1 (w/ Collins and West sprinkled in)
* F. Gore -- 25-57-1
* Cinci RBs -- all a general disaster with Mixon the lowlight with 17-29.
* NYJ RBs -- a similar disaster not worth my time typing.
* L. Miller (15-41), D. Foreman (12-59)
I'm not terribly impressed.
Take out the Cinci data where that offensive line was a terrible mess and insert the L. Bell of week 6 where rust is kicked off and I bet you see the real data.
when he and Murray are in the game together, Henry often shifts to WR. He's almost never received a pass but he usually brings a LB with him. He's just too big for most teams third or fourth CBs. I bet they do this with Fluellen some. I'm not sure if he'll attract a LB too but it's a wise presnap shift to get a LB out of the box.
he was likely out a few weeks ago and healed up well enough to play. Last week he played and regularly had a heating pad on his hammy while on the sideline. FFers definitely want to be 100% that he's out
