RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

I don't really remember people debating if Henry was the starter.  The true debate was around usage and share of touches.

And so it continues

 

[Elevencents]

I don't really remember people debating if Henry was the starter.  The true debate was around usage and share of touches.

You’re right. Last year you kept hoping Henry would take over and he never did. Now this year he IS the man but they bring in Lewis and now it’s a matter of how are they gonna use him. Similar to Murray/Henry? 50/50? 1st and 2nd to Henry? I really don’t know at this point. I’m glad I have Henry as a keeper because I’m excited to see him play but at the same time if I were drafting him I would be nervous grabbing him where he is going until I know how things are gonna shake out. 

 

[SameSongNDance]

And so it continues

What do you think the split will look like?

 

[-OZ-]

You’re right. Last year you kept hoping Henry would take over and he never did. Now this year he IS the man but they bring in Lewis and now it’s a matter of how are they gonna use him. Similar to Murray/Henry? 50/50? 1st and 2nd to Henry? I really don’t know at this point. I’m glad I have Henry as a keeper because I’m excited to see him play but at the same time if I were drafting him I would be nervous grabbing him where he is going until I know how things are gonna shake out. 

It's kind of crazy.

As a Titans fan I love this group. Henry and Lewis will be good, I think Wadley has a lot more talent than a udfa usually does. But as a FF owner, I have zero shares of Henry, a few of Wadley because he's almost free.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

You’re right. Last year you kept hoping Henry would take over and he never did. Now this year he IS the man but they bring in Lewis and now it’s a matter of how are they gonna use him. Similar to Murray/Henry? 50/50? 1st and 2nd to Henry? I really don’t know at this point. I’m glad I have Henry as a keeper because I’m excited to see him play but at the same time if I were drafting him I would be nervous grabbing him where he is going until I know how things are gonna shake out. 

You must be quoting me by accident, as I've never owned Henry and didn't hope for anything from him last year.

 

[Elevencents]

You must be quoting me by accident, as I've never owned Henry and didn't hope for anything from him last year.

Poor grammar. You was meant as me and/or the collective. 

 

[Bri]

What do you think the split will look like?

LaFleur goes with the hot hand and the hot play til the D stops it. It's really hard to project but Henry is a beast to stop so at worst he is going to be likely to score a TD in FF each week.

I think it's his turn to shine and this is the next step in his career but I'm trying to stay even keel and struggling with it

 

[Bri]

 if I were drafting him I would be nervous grabbing him where he is going until I know how things are gonna shake out. 




 

I don't get this type of thinking at all. He's going 4th through 6th round which is late for a RB in FF. These words make me think he is going late round one or round two and you have this fear of him stinking and you're left weak at RB. To each their own, but I think Henry's value is pretty great right now

 

[dipandglide]

I don't get this type of thinking at all. He's going 4th through 6th round which is late for a RB in FF. These words make me think he is going late round one or round two and you have this fear of him stinking and you're left weak at RB. To each their own, but I think Henry's value is pretty great right now

AMEN! Lewis is talented but won't stand in the way of Henry getting 15-20 touches. I love where he's going in re-draft and can't stop drafting him. 

 

[Amused to Death]

AMEN! Lewis is talented but won't stand in the way of Henry getting 15-20 touches. I love where he's going in re-draft and can't stop drafting him. 

Lewis was a career 3rd down back before last year.  Prior to last year he never had more than 85 touches total (he had over 200 last year) with a significant injury history.  Their RBs other than Henry and Lewis are Wadley, Fluellen, and Dalyn Dawkins.  Of course they were going to bring in another RB.  I just don't buy the idea that Lewis was brought in to be the primary ball carrier.  COP/3rd down just as he's been for the majority of his career.

 

[Conan Troutman]

Exactly. Lewis may be the shiftier runner, especially between the tackles where Henry has trouble making sharp cuts and slipping through tight holes, and he's a pretty complete back, but I can't image the Titans think it's a good idea to give him anything close to 200 touches. It's going to be somewhere north of 100 for him if he can stay helthy, but problably not a whole lot more. That leaves plenty for Henry who has shown he's a beast to stop once he's gained a little bit of steam and sees some open field. He isn't always going to look great if the lanes aren't there due to his size, but he's going to hit enough big ones to make him a solid RB2 at worst, albeit maybe an inconsistent one. Pair that with RB1 upside and he shouldn't leave the third round in standard formats. PPR may be a different story, but something like 20-25 catches for 200-250 yards seems attainable, so he's still a good 4th round pick there and great value in the 5th.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lewis was a career 3rd down back before last year.  Prior to last year he never had more than 85 touches total (he had over 200 last year) with a significant injury history.  Their RBs other than Henry and Lewis are Wadley, Fluellen, and Dalyn Dawkins.  Of course they were going to bring in another RB.  I just don't buy the idea that Lewis was brought in to be the primary ball carrier.  COP/3rd down just as he's been for the majority of his career.

No one thinks Lewis will be the primary ball carrier - the question is how much will he eat into Henry’s touches. He’s a much better back than Henry owners want to believe. Henry should see the most carries - and likely by a fairly significant margin, but Lewis will see a series here and there and as you said be the main third down back.

 

[Elevencents]

I have Henry as a keeper so I am ALL for him killing it this year. I just had him and Murray last year and it was so incredibly frustrating how they chose to use them. Crossing my fingers they know what they’re doing. 

 

[matuski]

Lewis was #4 RB last 8 games of 2017.

Henry #29.

PPR. Link. 

 

[matuski]

Lewis was #4 RB last 8 games of 2017.

Henry #29.

PPR. Link. 

It isn't the players, but the situation that makes me hesitate.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have Henry as a keeper so I am ALL for him killing it this year. I just had him and Murray last year and it was so incredibly frustrating how they chose to use them. Crossing my fingers they know what they’re doing. 

Well the good thing for you (maybe) is it’s a whole new coaching staff so last years usage means very little.

 

[Amused to Death]

No one thinks Lewis will be the primary ball carrier - the question is how much will he eat into Henry’s touches. He’s a much better back than Henry owners want to believe. Henry should see the most carries - and likely by a fairly significant margin, but Lewis will see a series here and there and as you said be the main third down back.

Sure but that happens just about every team.  It's today's NFL. 

 

[Amused to Death]

Lewis was #4 RB last 8 games of 2017.

Henry #29.

PPR. Link. 

If they run the ball 30 times, how many of those carries go to Lewis? More than 10-12?

 

[need2know]

If they run the ball 30 times, how many of those carries go to Lewis? More than 10-12?

Nope

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Exactly. Lewis may be the shiftier runner, especially between the tackles where Henry has trouble making sharp cuts and slipping through tight holes, and he's a pretty complete back, but I can't image the Titans think it's a good idea to give him anything close to 200 touches. It's going to be somewhere north of 100 for him if he can stay helthy, but problably not a whole lot more. That leaves plenty for Henry who has shown he's a beast to stop once he's gained a little bit of steam and sees some open field. He isn't always going to look great if the lanes aren't there due to his size, but he's going to hit enough big ones to make him a solid RB2 at worst, albeit maybe an inconsistent one. Pair that with RB1 upside and he shouldn't leave the third round in standard formats. PPR may be a different story, but something like 20-25 catches for 200-250 yards seems attainable, so he's still a good 4th round pick there and great value in the 5th.  

No disagreement on Henry, his opportunity, or his upside.  He should be in for a big year.

That said, you suggest D Lewis will barely get north of 100 touches if healthy all 16 games.  So basically you see Lewis getting 6-8 touches per game.  Correct?

 

[Amused to Death]

No disagreement on Henry, his opportunity, or his upside.  He should be in for a big year.

That said, you suggest D Lewis will barely get north of 100 touches if healthy all 16 games.  So basically you see Lewis getting 6-8 touches per game.  Correct?

100 touches would be the 2nd highest in his career.  At age 28.

 

[matuski]

If they run the ball 30 times, how many of those carries go to Lewis? More than 10-12?

Regardless of how many times they run it I think Lewis gets ~10+ carries.

So when they more realistically run it 26-27 times?

Do we count the QB runs into this equation?

 

[Amused to Death]

Regardless of how many times they run it I think Lewis gets 10+ carries.

So when they more realistically run it 26-27 times?

30 was a number off the top of my head.  Last year they averaged 27.  So yeah, with 27 rushing plays, I do think 8-10 for Lewis is reasonable. That would be the 2nd highest amount in his career.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

30 was a number off the top of my head.  Last year they averaged 27.  So yeah, with 27 rushing plays, I do think 8-10 for Lewis is reasonable. That would be the 2nd highest amount in his career.

You keep quoting the “second highest” carries/touches as if it’s so meaningful. He’s had two major flukish injuries that cost him a two seasons and he backed up Shady early in his career. He has shown twice now that he can handle a fairly heavy workload while he was healthy.

I have no horse in this race but I just don’t get the outright dismal of just how good Lewis is. I think the final touches will be a lot closer than people think - Henry will get more carries but Lewis will get carries and a majority of the passing game work imo.

 

[matuski]

30 was a number off the top of my head.  Last year they averaged 27.  So yeah, with 27 rushing plays, I do think 8-10 for Lewis is reasonable. That would be the 2nd highest amount in his career.

The last 10 games last year he was averaging north of 15 per game and sure as hell produced on it.  Add in Mariota's 4-6 carries and I think there might be less left than people think for Henry.

27 carries - 8-10 for Lewis - Mariota = ?

 

[Soulfly3]

JOSH GORDON IS BACK!!!!!

 

[pantherclub]

JOSH GORDON IS BACK!!!!!

you in the right thread bro?

 

[Soulfly3]

Edot: too excited

 

[matuski]

BREAKING - soulfly3 will be providing FREE egg wash wipes, to help FBG members wash reside from their faces

All kinds of fail going on here.

Hint - thread title.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

100 touches would be the 2nd highest in his career.  At age 28.

Sure.   Due to injury, the past few years.   But that isn't what the guy I quoted said -- he talked about that usage rate assuming no injury.

 

[Conan Troutman]

No disagreement on Henry, his opportunity, or his upside.  He should be in for a big year.

That said, you suggest D Lewis will barely get north of 100 touches if healthy all 16 games.  So basically you see Lewis getting 6-8 touches per game.  Correct?

Sorry confused carries and touches. I meant not a whole lot more than 100 carries, so 6-8 carries per game sounds about right. That leaves about 13-15 for the other RBs (going from 25 rushes per game, minus 4 from Mariota). Assuming the backups won't get a lot until Henry and Lewis already had their share, I see Henry getting somewhere in the range from 180-220 carries. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Sorry confused carries and touches. I meant not a whole lot more than 100 carries, so 6-8 carries per game sounds about right. That leaves about 13-15 for the other RBs (going from 25 rushes per game, minus 4 from Mariota). Assuming the backups won't get a lot until Henry and Lewis already had their share, I see Henry getting somewhere in the range from 180-220 carries. 

Cool.  Makes sense.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

You keep quoting the “second highest” carries/touches as if it’s so meaningful. He’s had two major flukish injuries that cost him a two seasons and he backed up Shady early in his career. He has shown twice now that he can handle a fairly heavy workload while he was healthy.

I have no horse in this race but I just don’t get the outright dismal of just how good Lewis is. I think the final touches will be a lot closer than people think - Henry will get more carries but Lewis will get carries and a majority of the passing game work imo.

You don't get it. This is about Henry owners, who have sat on him for 2 years, waiting for Murray to leave. Then he leaves, and they sign Lewis. People overreact to how much they are paying him, not considering in today's NFL, his salary makes sense. They say, by paying him so much, they plan to use him, and maybe they don't like Henry. So Henry owners are upset, and we look closer at our competition for carries and realize that in his 7 year career, he has broken over 64 carries once, and we realize that maybe this guy isn't going to kill Henry's value as much as everyone thought when he signed, if at all. So, yeah, it's meaningful that we Henry owners have that to cling on to. Whatever reasons you want to give about why Lewis never had caries in his career, the fact remains that that is who he is, and the fact that the Pats gave him up, right after he has the best 8 game stretch of his career says a lot to me.

 

[Snorkelson]

You don't get it. This is about Henry owners, who have sat on him for 2 years, waiting for Murray to leave. Then he leaves, and they sign Lewis. People overreact to how much they are paying him, not considering in today's NFL, his salary makes sense. They say, by paying him so much, they plan to use him, and maybe they don't like Henry. So Henry owners are upset, and we look closer at our competition for carries and realize that in his 7 year career, he has broken over 64 carries once, and we realize that maybe this guy isn't going to kill Henry's value as much as everyone thought when he signed, if at all. So, yeah, it's meaningful that we Henry owners have that to cling on to. Whatever reasons you want to give about why Lewis never had caries in his career, the fact remains that that is who he is, and the fact that the Pats gave him up, right after he has the best 8 game stretch of his career says a lot to me.

So, he is who we thought he was? 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You don't get it. This is about Henry owners, who have sat on him for 2 years, waiting for Murray to leave. Then he leaves, and they sign Lewis. People overreact to how much they are paying him, not considering in today's NFL, his salary makes sense. They say, by paying him so much, they plan to use him, and maybe they don't like Henry. So Henry owners are upset, and we look closer at our competition for carries and realize that in his 7 year career, he has broken over 64 carries once, and we realize that maybe this guy isn't going to kill Henry's value as much as everyone thought when he signed, if at all. So, yeah, it's meaningful that we Henry owners have that to cling on to. Whatever reasons you want to give about why Lewis never had caries in his career, the fact remains that that is who he is, and the fact that the Pats gave him up, right after he has the best 8 game stretch of his career says a lot to me.

So you’re convincing yourself?

i think Henry will have a better fantasy season than Lewis if that helps, and I see double digit TD upside for Henry and he should easily reach 1,000 plus rushing yards if healthy. I just think Lewis is being dismissed too easily at the same time, and he does cap Henry’s upside to some degree.

I’m just not a fan of disingenuous statements that seem like their so salient when they’re not.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

So you’re convincing yourself?

i think Henry will have a better fantasy season than Lewis if that helps, and I see double digit TD upside for Henry and he should easily reach 1,000 plus rushing yards if healthy. I just think Lewis is being dismissed too easily at the same time, and he does cap Henry’s upside to some degree.

I’m just not a fan of disingenuous statements that seem like their so salient when they’re not.

To the first bolded, in short, yes. But just at first. Now I believe. As for the second bolded, I'm not the one you replied to. I just wanted to show you, as one who has claimed to have no dog in this fight, the possible reasoning you will get from the Henry side.

 

[Elevencents]

...and the fact that the Pats gave him up, right after he has the best 8 game stretch of his career says a lot to me.

Would love to know the why. 

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Would love to know the why. 

I have no statistics to back me up, but I can't remember any skill player (not counting QB) leaving the Pats and doing well. Belichek gets the most out of what he has, and makes JAGs look like stars. His competition on the Pats were a pack of bums if unleashed to the rest of the league, but Belichek knows how to use players and takes whatever strengths they have and uses it to his advantage, and most importantly, he knows when to get rid of guys.

 

[Bri]

Would love to know the why. 

right after the best 8 is true but it was also at his payday. They have a stable of backs and maybe didn't want to pay a lot to one. (I have spoken over n over how I don't think RBs are relatively expensive but...)

 

[SameSongNDance]

Would love to know the why.

They viewed him as a role player (as they do every RB) whose contract would be too rich for them IMO. 

 

[Bri]

The last 10 games last year he was averaging north of 15 per game and sure as hell produced on it.  Add in Mariota's 4-6 carries and I think there might be less left than people think for Henry.

27 carries - 8-10 for Lewis - Mariota = ?

That's backwards. Who thinks like that? We give starters carries then work our way back. What are ya gonna say next? That Wadley will get 50 so that's 50 less for Henry?

 

[Bri]

I don't know if it means anything, but don't forget this is "the biggest man to play RB." Henry could also set some sort of record for the most carries in a season. He sure is built for it.

I'm not calling this likely or anything it just seems like everyone is thinking negatively

 

[Buckna]

Would love to know the why. 

Pats have less than $8M in cap space, paying big FA dollars to 28 year old RB’s probably not the best use of their remaining funds.

 

[Chaka]

Lewis is definitely going to impact/limit Henry's production but I think this offense is poised to hum and they are going to use them both a lot.

 

[Elevencents]

Pats have less than $8M in cap space, paying big FA dollars to 28 year old RB’s probably not the best use of their remaining funds.

Yep that makes the most sense. Oh well, was hoping maybe there was something more sinister underlying it 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have no statistics to back me up, but I can't remember any skill player (not counting QB) leaving the Pats and doing well. Belichek gets the most out of what he has, and makes JAGs look like stars. His competition on the Pats were a pack of bums if unleashed to the rest of the league, but Belichek knows how to use players and takes whatever strengths they have and uses it to his advantage, and most importantly, he knows when to get rid of guys.

Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Jimmy  Garropolo, Danny Woodhead are a few that come to mind.

ETA: scratch Garropolo as you singled out QBs.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Jimmy  Garropolo, Danny Woodhead are a few that come to mind.

Garrapolo doesn't count as he's a QB. Welker went from a 7 year stretch where he had over 110 catches all but one season to 73 catches, then total obscurity. He's not a good example. Woodhead is a good one, but he really only had 2 good seasons and they were not due to anything he did on the ground. Watson was never good on NE and has had a mediocre career, but has somehow grown better with age. I'll buy him as an example, but the others, not so much.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Garrapolo doesn't count as he's a QB. Welker went from a 7 year stretch where he had over 110 catches all but one season to 73 catches, then total obscurity. He's not a good example. Woodhead is a good one, but he really only had 2 good seasons and they were not due to anything he did on the ground. Watson was never good on NE and has had a mediocre career, but has somehow grown better with age. I'll buy him as an example, but the others, not so much.

Welker was old and he had 10 TDs that season  - call me crazy but some may consider that good, and then injuries ended his career. And if you’re not buying woodhead as an example than I guess you have your mind made up and don’t really want answers because you’re making up new parameters by saying he did nothing rushing the ball after saying no one had success once they left the Pats.

those guys were off the top of my head -  sure there’s other examples but I do agree with your general premise that Belichick (and Brady) make players better - there’s really no denying that.

 

[matuski]

That's backwards. Who thinks like that? We give starters carries then work our way back. What are ya gonna say next? That Wadley will get 50 so that's 50 less for Henry?

What.  We started with the carries for the team.  27.  This followed the discussion about what we might expect from Lewis, and the other poster agreed 8-10.  Mariota will get carries as well obviously.

Henry would get the rest.  Henry's share will be the largest (as the starter)... but by this math that share isn't what I am seeing people assume (that he is going to carry it 20 times a game).

 

[matuski]

@Bri So either Henry is going to be a workhorse and Lewis will barely carry the ball, or Lewis is going to get his 8-10 and Henry isn't the workhorse.

The coach has also stated more than once that he want Mariota to run more.

Something has to give unless they are adding 10 rushing plays a game.  If im not mistaken 30 run plays/game is on the high end so that isn't happening.