Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Derrick Henry, BAL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Elevencents
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
15 carries a game is a ~40-50% increase over last year. He has 15 carries in 4 games over 2 years.
I would say that is the high end of what I would expect.
eta - I do expect more touches (15-18 carries/receptions).
Last edited by a moderator:
GoBirds
Footballguy
I'm stuck there and wonder if Cook/Freeman are really more than a cointoss better than Mixon/McCaffrey and now Henry has me thinking too.
I'm amazed they aren't planning to feed him the rock after a couple years experience and no Murray. You have ti think Lewis' ceiling was last year and has he done anything outside NE?
Last edited by a moderator:
If you're going to count it's difficult. Vrabel (oh so much like Mularkey) wants to establish a power (exotic smashmouth) run game early and set the tone. Henry could have 10? carries on the first two drives or more; but what about after? As I've said before, I am lost at predicting here. Nothing "sounds right" and yet everything seems off to me.
I really don't know why you compare Henry as a backup to how many carries he'll get as a starter. Shouldn't you use Murray? Or Gurley since the offense changed?
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Derrick Henry Impressing As A Blocker
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had a very nice day Wednesday in the joint practice with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Most importantly, Henry’s pass blocking skills stood out in the one-on-one and team drills. Henry’s inability to protect the quarterback were a major reason that he deferred to veteran DeMarco Murray during his first two years in the league. These concerns carried over when the Titans signed Dion Lewis, but it appears that Henry has improved drastically in the passing game. Henry’s offseason reports paint him out as a much more complete back than he was previously regarded as, but it is still unknown whether or not he can carry it over to the regular season.
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had a very nice day Wednesday in the joint practice with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Most importantly, Henry’s pass blocking skills stood out in the one-on-one and team drills. Henry’s inability to protect the quarterback were a major reason that he deferred to veteran DeMarco Murray during his first two years in the league. These concerns carried over when the Titans signed Dion Lewis, but it appears that Henry has improved drastically in the passing game. Henry’s offseason reports paint him out as a much more complete back than he was previously regarded as, but it is still unknown whether or not he can carry it over to the regular season.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
In TD heavy leagues it makes total sense. How much Lewis takes from in the passing game and in games where they are behind is yet to be seen. I really like his talent. But Lewis if healthy is really good too.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Mariota's legs make this hard to predict, it's like projecting a RBBC. Even if TEN finishes towards the top of the rankings in rushing attempts per game, like WAS did in 2012 when LaFluer worked with RG3 (RG3 had 120 carries, ALMO had 335), it still seems hard to project Henry for anything more than 225-250 carries (14-15 per game) assuming Lewis touches the ball even a little bit. I honestly don't feel comfortable projecting 250 carries for Henry even though he's a guy whose ceiling really seems predicated on volume. He's the type of guy who wears teams out and busts 60 yard runs in the 4th quarter. It's a shame because that's exactly how I'd like to see him used. I guess I echo @matuskis sentiments here.
Silverstreak
Footballguy
10 team non ppr, just took him at 4.4 as my RB2.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I get that people are worried about Dion Lewis, but I am shocked at how his value continues to plummet. I got him at 4.9 the other day in a local, 14- team keeper draft (51st pick overall). And have gotten him for peanuts in a few online auctions. Great value.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I like him in TD heavy leagues.
Agreed. He went 60th in a draft I did a few days ago. Lewis went 70th, and I think there is more separation between them than that.
ponchsox
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
With 88 career receptions and a career high of 36 in 2015, it must be awfully close between the two.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Yep. Dude's gonna kill it this year.
Murray was way better than Lewis and the Titans decided to go away from Murray and give the keys to Henry. My affection for BB and his wonderfully efficient offense doesn't make Lewis a better back than Murray. They're in the same era and they're not even close statistically. Murray was one of the most efficient backs on third down per PFF and played slot WR for the Titans during the 2016 season for four games. He led the team in receiving during those four. I don't think you can even say Lewis is a better third down back. The only advantage Lewis has comes with some mystique from the great Belichick. It's not there statistically. If he was on any of the other 31 teams, you'd call him a role player and/or injury prone.
Money- Lewis was not signed to a high contract but 5 mil. This is less than what they had to pay Murray. I have yet to see a Patriots fan "cry" that Lewis isn't there anymore. If he was a top back, that would be the expected reaction.
Belichick's mastery has caused many to confuse efficiency with production. Lewis averages over 200 yards per year. Umm have you ever said a 200+ yard season was a good season? Lewis only has 1584 yards in seven years since he entered the league. Since when is that good? Oh but he missed time due to injury. OK Since when is that good? If we bump it up to 300 yards per, does that really make him look better? (300*5)
ALSO entering the league in 2011 was Murray. He's run for 7000 yards, three Pro Bowls, and one all-pro which he led the league in rushing.
Since when is 1500 better than 7000? Belichick!
"Lewis is a better receiving back"
Murray has 307 receptions for 2165 yards. Lewis has 88 for 717 yards.
Call me crazy, call this an odd tangent, but I swear Belichick's wonderful job of teaching the importance of efficiency has carried over onto many fans. The NFL has been around a long time. Please feel free to point out one single back that was great that only had 1500 yards in 7 seasons. Point out another time you were stoked to have a PPR back that averages less than 20 receptions per year?
I am happy the Titans have him. There will be moments in games where they need yardage and he is a get'r done guy with experience in the playoffs.
Money- Lewis was not signed to a high contract but 5 mil. This is less than what they had to pay Murray. I have yet to see a Patriots fan "cry" that Lewis isn't there anymore. If he was a top back, that would be the expected reaction.
Belichick's mastery has caused many to confuse efficiency with production. Lewis averages over 200 yards per year. Umm have you ever said a 200+ yard season was a good season? Lewis only has 1584 yards in seven years since he entered the league. Since when is that good? Oh but he missed time due to injury. OK Since when is that good? If we bump it up to 300 yards per, does that really make him look better? (300*5)
ALSO entering the league in 2011 was Murray. He's run for 7000 yards, three Pro Bowls, and one all-pro which he led the league in rushing.
Since when is 1500 better than 7000? Belichick!
"Lewis is a better receiving back"
Murray has 307 receptions for 2165 yards. Lewis has 88 for 717 yards.
Call me crazy, call this an odd tangent, but I swear Belichick's wonderful job of teaching the importance of efficiency has carried over onto many fans. The NFL has been around a long time. Please feel free to point out one single back that was great that only had 1500 yards in 7 seasons. Point out another time you were stoked to have a PPR back that averages less than 20 receptions per year?
I am happy the Titans have him. There will be moments in games where they need yardage and he is a get'r done guy with experience in the playoffs.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Go rewatch the first snap of the 3rd preseason game. I've never seen a guy so big wilt and get that skinny in pass protection - he completely whiffs and gives up a sack. I don't think Henry has the skill set to completely push Lewis to the wayside and realize what people perceive to be his full potential. He will of course be valuable, it'd be dumb to assume otherwise. But I'm not in love with his ceiling, especially in the formats I play.
And Lewis is not the product of a system. Aside from passing the eye test, him being a very good runner bears out statistically. He was ranked #1 in PFF's elusiveness rating, ranked 3rd in yards after contact per attempts and 5th in forced missed tackles. He ranked second in "yards gained after close". He was the DYAR leader according to footballoutsiders.
I get the injury concerns and that he's destined to be more of a role player regardless as to how Henry performs but Lewis is ####### filthy. Remember this?
And Lewis is not the product of a system. Aside from passing the eye test, him being a very good runner bears out statistically. He was ranked #1 in PFF's elusiveness rating, ranked 3rd in yards after contact per attempts and 5th in forced missed tackles. He ranked second in "yards gained after close". He was the DYAR leader according to footballoutsiders.
I get the injury concerns and that he's destined to be more of a role player regardless as to how Henry performs but Lewis is ####### filthy. Remember this?
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Yeah, the slander Lewis gets based on career totals is crazy to me. Nobody is debating he’s been injury-prone, but when he’s healthy he’s nasty as hell.
The pats system definitely got him better looks than Murray was getting in “exotic smash mouth” but Belichick wasn’t out there breaking all those tackles
The pats system definitely got him better looks than Murray was getting in “exotic smash mouth” but Belichick wasn’t out there breaking all those tackles
az_prof
Footballguy
How many 245 pounds guys can outrun a DB? Lewis is good but Henry is special and he is built to carry a load whereas Lewis is a complementary guy or a guy who can carry the load for a few games if Henry gets hurt.
Marvel at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEY0h1eC8Ww
BespokeJort
Footballguy
What do we mean by better? No question you’d have felt better building a team around Murray and expecting him to carry your offense for a season. He could do everything, and availability is important. Both healthy, in their prime, last play of the game and down one score? I might take Lewis, assuming it’s not from the goal line.
In general though, in murray’s prime, I’d agree he was the better back.
That did not appear to still be the case last season though, so them taking the reins from him and giving it to Henry has little bearing on what role Lewis will have or not.
In general though, in murray’s prime, I’d agree he was the better back.
That did not appear to still be the case last season though, so them taking the reins from him and giving it to Henry has little bearing on what role Lewis will have or not.
Survivor7700
Footballguy
Henry is a solid #2 RB who could be ready to explode and have a fantastic year.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I will never say Henry isn't a talented runner. I was in this thread practically salivating at the thought of him seeing a full compliment of touches last year when Murray tweaked his hamstring. But I do think Lewis (and Mariota's legs) complicates things. I've always thought very highly of Lewis though, he's the reason I started watching film.az_prof said:
I'm not avoiding Henry, it just depends on the price. I think he was going in the 3rd at some point recently which I didn't like. I'm looking at the most recent MFL10s (and posts in this thread) and he's going late 4th/early 5th around Ajayi, Royce Freeman, Ingram and Lynch. You better believe I'd take him over those guys in that round if I was in the market for a RB.
Henry generally does well in pass protection. With the Titans, I've seen my share of awful blocking backs. Henry is fine.SameSongNDance said:
You clearly skirted over totals to use whatever average stats you could. This is what Lewis fans do and what I've been saying. The guy doesn't have 1000 yards rushing and most years is nowhere near it.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You're applying a different standard then I am. I'm not saying Lewis is a bell cow, I'm saying he's very good with the ball in his hands. And I consider 400 touches an adequate sample size in which to draw a conclusion from. I've already admitted that Lewis's role is unlikely to change regardless as to what Henry does.
If I say Lewis caps Henry's ceiling, that doesn't imply anything aside from the fact that Lewis will touch the ball. Bringing up the fact that Lewis has never had a 1,000 yard season is a non-sequitur. I'm not concerned with season totals.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
Somehow ended up with Henry as my RB2 in ppr dynasty. Please, Truthers, tell me it will be ok. What are we expecting out of him this year? How will things be different than in the Murray era?
I'm a Pats Homer so know all about Lewis. I think he is a back they can do it all on limited touches. I expect Henry to have 8-10 carries a game. To me this limits him completely.
What kind of offense does it look like Vrable is going for?
He only positive I see is with the new tackling rules big backs like Henry might now have a huge advantage and set records for broken tackles.
I'm a Pats Homer so know all about Lewis. I think he is a back they can do it all on limited touches. I expect Henry to have 8-10 carries a game. To me this limits him completely.
What kind of offense does it look like Vrable is going for?
He only positive I see is with the new tackling rules big backs like Henry might now have a huge advantage and set records for broken tackles.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
They are both the first team RBs. Henry started each preseason game with Lewis also playing with the 1s.
Looking to extrapolate the game plan: 64/36 rushing split. 33/66 target split. Last year they had 360 carries at the running back for the 14th ranked team in total carries. We can move down to 345 for the backs.
And while they had 50 total catches from the backs last year, Lewis would likely cause a big uptick at the cost of Walker and Jonnu as the safety valves. Maybe 27 or so more to 77 total. DeMarco had almost 4-1 advantage, And Lewis should maintain that even if Henry improved at the pass game.
- Henry only played the first series of each (1,2,3) preseason game.
- Lewis played 2 series in the first two preseason games.
- Lewis played 4 series in the third preseason game.
Looking to extrapolate the game plan: 64/36 rushing split. 33/66 target split. Last year they had 360 carries at the running back for the 14th ranked team in total carries. We can move down to 345 for the backs.
And while they had 50 total catches from the backs last year, Lewis would likely cause a big uptick at the cost of Walker and Jonnu as the safety valves. Maybe 27 or so more to 77 total. DeMarco had almost 4-1 advantage, And Lewis should maintain that even if Henry improved at the pass game.
- 253/92 carry split based on the pre-season usage.
- 15/62 catch split.
- 1113/441 + 150/496 = 1263 total yards vs 937 total yards. Lots of room for both to improve from the 23rd ranked yardage offense.
- Career averages point to about an 11/6 TD split. Though all increased TD chances above those 17 are more likely to go to Henry.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I'm not one to overreact to week 1, but the Henry is this Titans offense looks like a disaster. Mariotta is not good which means it is hard for a guy like Henry to get a rhythm going since they do not sustain drives, D Walker is now probably gone for a while, and Dion Lewis simply looks better. Ugh.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Looked good in his non-td td.
I know it was a weird game and all with the big delay. But every time I checked in the Dolphins were down 7 and seemingly play calling like they were down two scores with 2 minutes to go.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I didn’t watch much of the game but the parts that I did he just didn’t look very good. Running into his own blockers, picking a spot to hit and not adjusting once it closed. Similar to what I saw last year. I’m not sure what is going on. I’m not going to go crazy over one game, but could be a very mediocre and underwhelming year.
He didn't really get a carry in the second half. Lewis looked similar in first half.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'm gonna be packaging him with a first to get any legit PPR RB2 I can pry away from someone. Still can't believe I saddled myself with this dude.
Depends on what you thought you were getting. Henry is ahead of Lewis in my eyes, but that won't be the case when they are behind, which they were most of Sunday, if Henry hadn't had a TD called back by a BS holding call, I don't think Henry owners would be unhappy today.
I have Henry in the 15-25 range at RB, no different than he was all preseason. He's a volatile RB2.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Yeah Henry is a 240lb RB that has scored a couple 50yd+ TDs and can break off big runs. I don't understand why he doesn't get a larger workload and why he's only in on obvious run plays. This is the type of back that probably won't have a super long career and it just doesn't make any sense as to why the Titans use him so sparingly. He won't have the same speed 2 or 3 years from now. It's just dumb.VikingFrog said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Maybe because the team doesn't move the chains with him until the defense is worn down, and they are dependent on him breaking a 50-yard run (which doesn't happen every other series of course).
jtd13
Footballguy
Titans offense actually moved the ball fine the first couple drives where Henry got his 8 touches, they just sucked in the Red Zone. Miami was selling out to stop the run and was getting gashed in the passing game early, but they seemed to change the defensive approach after the 1st 2-hour delay.
It's hard to take much useful information out of a game that covered 10 minutes of game time in a 4-hour window smack dab in the middle of the game. I was encouraged at how TEN wanted to use him early, and discouraged by how little play he got in catch-up mode.
