RB Derrick Henry, BAL (4 Viewers)

[TheDirtyWord]

While most of the FF community has soured on Zeke Elliott, wanted to point out a couple of things as it relates to Henry.

1) It was Henry who missed half the season with an injury, not Zeke.
2) He's 1.5 years older than Elliott.  Quite a few less career touches less than 1500 to Zeke's 1900+.  But that's less physically taxing passing game work that Zeke has on his resume.
3) In 8 games last year, he logged 237 touches.  30/game...
4) HIs YPC in 2019-2020 was 5.2.  2021? 4.3.

Things to think about...

 

[joey]

While most of the FF community has soured on Zeke Elliott, wanted to point out a couple of things as it relates to Henry.

1) It was Henry who missed half the season with an injury, not Zeke.
2) He's 1.5 years older than Elliott.  Quite a few less career touches less than 1500 to Zeke's 1900+.  But that's less physically taxing passing game work that Zeke has on his resume.
3) In 8 games last year, he logged 237 touches.  30/game...
4) HIs YPC in 2019-2020 was 5.2.  2021? 4.3.

Things to think about...

Riding him into the ground in my Win Now FFPC league. If I win it all again this year it will have been worth it.

 

[zamboni]

While most of the FF community has soured on Zeke Elliott, wanted to point out a couple of things as it relates to Henry.

1) It was Henry who missed half the season with an injury, not Zeke.
2) He's 1.5 years older than Elliott.  Quite a few less career touches less than 1500 to Zeke's 1900+.  But that's less physically taxing passing game work that Zeke has on his resume.
3) In 8 games last year, he logged 237 touches.  30/game...
4) HIs YPC in 2019-2020 was 5.2.  2021? 4.3.

Things to think about...

It's a fair point - everyone talks about the mileage about Zeke, but Henry typically gets more of a pass (pun unintentional) for it. I think the main difference - at least perception-wise - is that we've seen a bit of a slide from Zeke for two years now, while Henry was balling out as usual until his injury last year.

At the end of the day, it depends on whether one believes that the injuries are a harbinger of either guy's decline or just an aberration. My sense is that it's somewhere in the middle, but this could very well be the year that both guys fall off the cliff. Draft accordingly.

 

[menobrown]

2) He's 1.5 years older than Elliott.  Quite a few less career touches less than 1500 to Zeke's 1900+.  But that's less physically taxing passing game work that Zeke has on his resume.

The gap in touches hardly tells the real workload story. Elliot has played 4601 snaps to Henry's 2801. To put that in perspective if you added up Henry's 3  biggest snap count years it would still would not equal the gap between them. While all those snaps are not as taxing as running the ball there is a lot of physicality involving in pass protection.

The other points are all valid but Henry's been playing at a MVP type level carrying the team on his back almost and Elliot simply has not. But your point is one that merits consideration for fantasy players to consider the likelihood it continues to look how it has the past 2 years when Henry's been healthy.

 

[zamboni]

The gap in touches hardly tells the real workload story. Elliot has played 4601 snaps to Henry's 2801. To put that in perspective if you added up Henry's 3  biggest snap count years it would still would not equal the gap between them. While all those snaps are as taxing as running the ball there is a lot of physicality involving in pass protection.

Very good point. Zeke is known as among the best - if not, the best - pass protector among RBs. His fierceness as a willing blocker has to have taken a toll beyond being tackled running the ball thousands of times.

 

[menobrown]

Very good point. Zeke is known as among the best - if not, the best - pass protector among RBs. His fierceness as a willing blocker has to have taken a toll beyond being tackled running the ball thousands of times.

Thanks and I did just edit my post because it read as "all of those snaps are as taxing as carries", should have read "not as taxing". But as you are saying and was my point the pass protection that Elliot does on a lot of those snaps is for sure a heavy factor in his wear and tear.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The gap in touches hardly tells the real workload story. Elliot has played 4601 snaps to Henry's 2801. To put that in perspective if you added up Henry's 3  biggest snap count years it would still would not equal the gap between them. While all those snaps are not as taxing as running the ball there is a lot of physicality involving in pass protection.

The other points are all valid but Henry's been playing at a MVP type level carrying the team on his back almost and Elliot simply has not. But your point is one that merits consideration for fantasy players to consider the likelihood it continues to look how it has the past 2 years when Henry's been healthy.

Possibly...but if you're drafting Henry, you're having to do it Top 5.  Maybe Top 3.  His volume was crazy last year - all time high obliteration levels (500+ touch pace).

I know analysis has been done when RB's eclipse 400 touches in a season and the outcomes are more often than not...concerning.

 

[menobrown]

Possibly...but if you're drafting Henry, you're having to do it Top 5.  Maybe Top 3

You talking about non-PPR? I understand all leagues are different but for example in June for the FFPC/FBG contest he was RB6, player 11. That's actually to a good amount to high for me and higher then I thought he was getting drafted, in the few drafts I've actually been in he's been going in the second.

Personally he's not someone I'd be looking at drafting until somewhere closer to middle second round range. But to your Elliot point Henry's ADP is a whopping 3 rounds higher then Elliots and that's not something I agree with.

I really wish I liked Henry more because he's fun as could be to watch, but older non-pass catching RB's are not my thing.

 

[dipandglide]

Another polarizing dynasty asset. His range of outcomes this year is wide. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a league winner again. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s worth a 2nd round pick this time next year. My only remaining shares are in best ball leagues. I’m riding him into the ground in those leagues!

 

[TheWinz]

I know analysis has been done when RB's eclipse 400 touches in a season and the outcomes are more often than not...concerning.

But Derrick Henry has never had a 400 touch season.

 

[JoeJoe88]

But Derrick Henry has never had a 400 touch season.

I mean, he just had 397 two years ago to be fair. I’d say that’s close enough. Post-season certainly put him over. 

 

[TheWinz]

I mean, he just had 397 two years ago to be fair. I’d say that’s close enough. Post-season certainly put him over. 

2016 - 123 touches in 15 games = 8.2 touches per game
2017 - 187 touches in 16 games = 11.7 touches per game
2018 - 230 touches in 16 games = 14.4 touches per game
2019 - 321 touches in 15 games = 21.4 touches per game
2020 - 397 touches in 16 games = 24.8 touches per game
2021 - 237 touches in 8 games = 29.6 touches per game

I know he has been used a ton in his last 24 games played, but he only had 861 touches through his first 4 years in the league, and he played in 62 games.  The question is, is 400 touches too much for a RB to handle?
If you ask LT, he will say no.  He averaged 396 touches for the first 8 years of his career.
If you ask Emmitt, he will say no.  He topped 400 four times in a 5-year span (the only reason it wasn't 5 straight is because he held out to start the year).
If you ask Eric Dickerson, he will say no.  He did it 4 times, with his last when he was 28 years old.
If you ask Tiki Barber, he will say no.  He waited until he was 30 to top the 400 mark, then went for for 385 more as a 31-year old.
If you ask Curtis Martin, he will say no.  He had 3346 touches through his first 9 seasons.  In his 10th season at age 31, he had 412.

It is my contention that Derrick Henry can handle 400 touches in a season.  The fact that he sustained a foot fracture after 8 games does not necessarily mean he was being overused.  Many RB's before him were still effective after twice the amount of touches he has so far.

 

[JoeJoe88]

2016 - 123 touches in 15 games = 8.2 touches per game
2017 - 187 touches in 16 games = 11.7 touches per game
2018 - 230 touches in 16 games = 14.4 touches per game
2019 - 321 touches in 15 games = 21.4 touches per game
2020 - 397 touches in 16 games = 24.8 touches per game
2021 - 237 touches in 8 games = 29.6 touches per game

I know he has been used a ton in his last 24 games played, but he only had 861 touches through his first 4 years in the league, and he played in 62 games.  The question is, is 400 touches too much for a RB to handle?
If you ask LT, he will say no.  He averaged 396 touches for the first 8 years of his career.
If you ask Emmitt, he will say no.  He topped 400 four times in a 5-year span (the only reason it wasn't 5 straight is because he held out to start the year).
If you ask Eric Dickerson, he will say no.  He did it 4 times, with his last when he was 28 years old.
If you ask Tiki Barber, he will say no.  He waited until he was 30 to top the 400 mark, then went for for 385 more as a 31-year old.
If you ask Curtis Martin, he will say no.  He had 3346 touches through his first 9 seasons.  In his 10th season at age 31, he had 412.

It is my contention that Derrick Henry can handle 400 touches in a season.  The fact that he sustained a foot fracture after 8 games does not necessarily mean he was being overused.  Many RB's before him were still effective after twice the amount of touches he has so far.

I agree with all of this. I’m a Titans fan, I’m the last person you need to convince how good King Henry is lol. 
 

I was just saying that technically he has had a 400 touch season. If anybody is able to absorb a large number of touches over several years and still keep trucking, my moneys on him. I’m still selling if I owned him in dynasty unless I was a super contender. But I do believe he has a couple elite seasons left. 

 

[Tau837]

The gap in touches hardly tells the real workload story. Elliot has played 4601 snaps to Henry's 2801. To put that in perspective if you added up Henry's 3  biggest snap count years it would still would not equal the gap between them. While all those snaps are not as taxing as running the ball there is a lot of physicality involving in pass protection.

FWIW, PFF shows their career snaps counts as 4952 for Elliott and 3112 for Henry. I assume the difference is that postseason snaps are included there.

PFF also breaks it down as follows:

• Pass (lined up on the field on pass plays) - Elliott 2454; Henry 1047
  
  Routes run - Elliott 2315; Henry 983
  
• Targets - Elliott 374; Henry 128
  
• Receptions - Elliott 296; Henry 107
  

[*]Run (lined up on the field on run plays, not necessarily carrying the ball) - Elliott 1775; Henry 1611

• 
  Rushing attempts - Elliott 1730; Henry 1557
  

[*]Pass blocking - Elliott 489; Henry 297

[*]Run blocking (snaps in run blocking role) - Elliott 234; Henry 157

So if we assume that the physical toll comes mostly from rushing attempts, pass plays when targeted, pass blocking, and run blocking, that adds up to this - Elliott 2827; Henry 2139. That is +32% for Elliott.

 

[Tau837]

I’m still selling if I owned him in dynasty unless I was a super contender. But I do believe he has a couple elite seasons left. 

I just don't think it would be easy to get much value for selling him. If you are in a rebuild situation, I suppose maybe it is worth selling low to a contender, but I think that's what you would have to be willing to do.

 

[BoltBacker]

While most of the FF community has soured on Zeke Elliott, wanted to point out a couple of things as it relates to Henry.

1) It was Henry who missed half the season with an injury, not Zeke.
2) He's 1.5 years older than Elliott.  Quite a few less career touches less than 1500 to Zeke's 1900+.  But that's less physically taxing passing game work that Zeke has on his resume.
3) In 8 games last year, he logged 237 touches.  30/game...
4) HIs YPC in 2019-2020 was 5.2.  2021? 4.3.

Things to think about...

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread but for me a huge difference in the two situations is who the backups are.

If Zeke gets out to a slow start there is a very realistic chance it's a full on 50/50 split with Zeke/Pollard. Pollard is younger, cheaper, and the owner has spoken glowingly about him in the past. It could be argued that Pollard hasn't looked that much different than Elliot recently. 

It just doesn't seem to me that anyone on the TEN roster can do what Henry does for them at least in the short term. Henry had 10 rushing TD's in LESS than half a season last year. There may not be anyone in the entire league that could replace him, let alone on the roster. I just don't see any scenario where a healthy Henry doesn't get force fed the ball all season even if he does have a slow start. 

I don't really argue much about RB future for dynasty leagues because I think the RB landscape changes so much in 18 months. It wouldn't shock me in the least if both these RB's are on different teams in 2023 if I'm being honest. DAL could just move to Pollard and TEN could start a complete rebuild if things don't go well this season. This Tannehill window for a SB might have been shorter than people realize.

 

[joey]

I’m still selling if I owned him in dynasty unless I was a super contender. But I do believe he has a couple elite seasons left. 

 
Holding in the 1 league where I roster him. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

I just don't think it would be easy to get much value for selling him. If you are in a rebuild situation, I suppose maybe it is worth selling low to a contender, but I think that's what you would have to be willing to do.

Probably so. I got extremely lucky and sold him for a massive haul literally the week before he got hurt last season. 
 

If I still owned him post-injury, I doubt I’d be selling now unless I got a great offer. The best time is going to be after the first few weeks of the season. Wait for one of his 27/188/2 games and sell then. 

 

[Insein]

First time having Henry. Hopefully that's not at the end of the run.

 

[joey]

First time having Henry. Hopefully that's not at the end of the run.

He’s fun to watch play no matter what, and doubly so once you roster him. Enjoy the awesomeness.

 

[Bri]

The sand trap stories take away any doubt post injury. Pretty cool that he could go through several times while most guys were tired after one

 

[zamboni]

Whether Henry can get back to the guy he was is one of the more compelling stories this year. The odds are against it at his age and the odometer on his tires. But if you're going to bet on one guy beating the odds, I'd put my money on Derrick. Nothing like a guy who's highly motivated to prove everyone wrong.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Whether Henry can get back to the guy he was is one of the more compelling stories this year. The odds are against it at his age and the odometer on his tires. But if you're going to bet on one guy beating the odds, I'd put my money on Derrick. Nothing like a guy who's highly motivated to prove everyone wrong.

I feel like that's over-selling pessimism. Dominant year followed by injury year followed by.....tbd.

 

[zamboni]

Whether Henry can get back to the guy he was is one of the more compelling stories this year. The odds are against it at his age and the odometer on his tires. But if you're going to bet on one guy beating the odds, I'd put my money on Derrick. Nothing like a guy who's highly motivated to prove everyone wrong.

I feel like that's over-selling pessimism. Dominant year followed by injury year followed by.....tbd.

I don't think it's overly pessimistic but just a basis of historical performance. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I've heard several times that historically the RB cliff hits around age 28 and/or 1,500 carries (Henry is right there on both). Only AP seemed to keep producing at a high level once he hit that threshold. It's certainly it's not a death knell for Henry, as he seems to be different, but he'd still be bucking the odds to put up another monster season. I think he can do it and will be rooting for him.

 

[jobarules]

Whether Henry can get back to the guy he was is one of the more compelling stories this year. The odds are against it at his age and the odometer on his tires. But if you're going to bet on one guy beating the odds, I'd put my money on Derrick. Nothing like a guy who's highly motivated to prove everyone wrong.

I feel like that's over-selling pessimism. Dominant year followed by injury year followed by.....tbd.

I don't think it's overly pessimistic but just a basis of historical performance. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I've heard several times that historically the RB cliff hits around age 28 and/or 1,500 carries (Henry is right there on both). Only AP seemed to keep producing at a high level once he hit that threshold. It's certainly it's not a death knell for Henry, as he seems to be different, but he'd still be bucking the odds to put up another monster season. I think he can do it and will be rooting for him.

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches. I dunno. I think this is overblown for Henry. The offense he plays in is more worrisome to me.

 

[zamboni]

Whether Henry can get back to the guy he was is one of the more compelling stories this year. The odds are against it at his age and the odometer on his tires. But if you're going to bet on one guy beating the odds, I'd put my money on Derrick. Nothing like a guy who's highly motivated to prove everyone wrong.

I feel like that's over-selling pessimism. Dominant year followed by injury year followed by.....tbd.

I don't think it's overly pessimistic but just a basis of historical performance. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I've heard several times that historically the RB cliff hits around age 28 and/or 1,500 carries (Henry is right there on both). Only AP seemed to keep producing at a high level once he hit that threshold. It's certainly it's not a death knell for Henry, as he seems to be different, but he'd still be bucking the odds to put up another monster season. I think he can do it and will be rooting for him.

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches. I dunno. I think this is overblown for Henry. The offense he plays in is more worrisome to me.

The offense is definitely concerning - the OL seems to be weaker and the loss of AJ Brown may hurt its efficiency. Who knows if Woods can revert to form and if Burks can be an impact player in year 1. The good thing though is that we know Henry will be fed a lot, which is what you want out of any fantasy RB.

 

[Tau837]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I've heard several times that historically the RB cliff hits around age 28 and/or 1,500 carries (Henry is right there on both).

This 2021 article suggests age 28: At What Age Do Running Backs Decline?

This 2015 article suggests 1800 carries: Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff

This 2010 thesis suggests age 31: AGE VS. WEAR AND TEAR: THE DETERIORATION OF AN NFL RUNNING BACK

From that 2010 thesis:

...it was concluded that running back production decreases gradually from the age 27-32. Results also showed that running backs turning 31 or 32 can expect to experience the greatest decline in production from the previous year...

The analysis in this study marks an attempt to study and define the general decline in production trends that result from the aging and wear and tear a running back endures. From this attempt, one finds that running backs will continue to deteriorate over time; however the rate of this decline is much more gradual than the constant turnover at the 23 position would lead one to believe. In addition, some running backs have continued to be productive well into their thirties.

I don't know if things have changed substantially since the 2015 or 2010 articles and thus invalidated their conclusions. And I'm sure there are many other studies that may have drawn different cutoff conclusions.

I tend to have some skepticism about workload analysis that ignores factors that might impact conclusions, such as:

• College workload
• Injury history
• Touches, as opposed to just carries
• Running style (i.e., some RBs are good at avoiding punishment by angling or getting down to mitigate tackling impact, but some make no attempt to do that)

It is obviously quite difficult to control for all relevant factors.

So I tend to put more belief in the likelihood of decline due to age rather than workload, which I think ends up being very case-specific.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches.

And only one year of 300 carries in college. So 3 heavy usage years and 6 lighter years due to either injury or stupid coaching.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Vegas O/U has him at 1,350 rushing yards.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches.

And only one year of 300 carries in college. So 3 heavy usage years and 6 lighter years due to either injury or stupid coaching.

Sounds pretty smart actually

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches.

And only one year of 300 carries in college. So 3 heavy usage years and 6 lighter years due to either injury or stupid coaching.

Sounds pretty smart actually

For him at this stage it is.

 

[Bri]

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches.

And only one year of 300 carries in college. So 3 heavy usage years and 6 lighter years due to either injury or stupid coaching.

Demarco Murray was one of the top rushers.
It's only the share year with Dion Lewis that was a poor choice

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He only has 2 seasons over 300 carries though. it took him several years as a part time back to get the full bulk of the touches.

And only one year of 300 carries in college. So 3 heavy usage years and 6 lighter years due to either injury or stupid coaching.

Demarco Murray was one of the top rushers.
It's only the share year with Dion Lewis that was a poor choice

I was also referring to his college years, where he was forced to share with the great T. J. Yeldon. And Demarco was good but not great.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Drafting from the 2 spot, any of you guys comfortable taking him over CMC? Dinosaur league, as standard as you can get.

 

[Insein]

Drafting from the 2 spot, any of you guys comfortable taking him over CMC? Dinosaur league, as standard as you can get.

Took him at 4 in a PPR. I'd be very comfortable taking him at 2 in standard.

 

[Faust]

Giants DC Wink Martindale on Titans' Derrick Henry: 'He's like our modern-day Jim Brown'

 

[The Frankman]

Derrick Henry rushed 21 times for 82 yards in the Titans' Week 1 loss to the Giants.​

This wasn't the Week 1 performance we expected to see from Henry, whose longest play of the day came on an 18-yard rush in the second quarter. Henry saw good volume in this one, but lost out on a red zone touchdown to running back Dontrell Hilliard, who scored on a seven-yard pass on a first and goal early in the first quarter. Never known for his work as a pass-catcher, Henry was pacing for a career-high in all receiving numbers last season before his injury. Today, he conceded four targets in the passing game to Hilliard while drawing just one target of his own. There's no reason to panic on Henry yet, but he and the Titans do draw a tough Week 2 matchup against the Bills next Monday night.
- NBCSportsEDGE

 

[Faust]

Derrick Henry rushed 13 times for 25 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' Week 2 loss to the Bills.​

Not even a touchdown could salvage Henry's performance in this one, as the Bills held him and the Titans in check all evening. Averaging a dismal 1.9 YPC on the evening, Henry's longest run came on a nine-yard gain on the Titans' first drive of the game. The Titans trailed 17-7 at halftime, but Henry was all but phased out in the third quarter when the Bills exploded for 24 unanswered points to put the game out of reach. Through two games, Henry has rushed 34 times for 107 yards and one touchdown and is averaging just 3.1 YPC. You have no choice but to start him in Week 3 against the Raiders in hopes that a breakout game is on the horizon.
Sep 19, 2022, 11:28 PM ET

 

[Insein]

That TD salvaged a dreadful performance. I'm officially concerned about the Titans as a whole.

 

[zamboni]

That TD salvaged a dreadful performance. I'm officially concerned about the Titans as a whole.

Agreed - the Titans are going to force feed him, but while it's been only two games, it's not looking promising that the game scripts are going to work in Henry's favor at all to pile up stats. And being a zero in the passing game, even with Hilliard out, is pretty big.

 

[crushedspirit]

That line can't block, which is another reason to be concerned.

 

[jobarules]

Kind of had a feeling this would happen. That's why I took Cook over him. Oh wait

 

[joey]

Don’t worry, folks. The Raiders are on the schedule next so Henry should go off.
signed,
Dejected Raiders Fan

 

[Faust]

Derrick Henry rushed 20 times for 85 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' Week 3 victory over the Raiders, adding five catches for an additional 58 yards.​

The pass game role was a welcome sight for fantasy managers in Week 3, adding additional floor to Henry's standard bruising running ability. The 143 combined yards marks his most on the young season and is a reminder of what the physical runner can do when given volume. The Titans offensive line largely held their own, routinely leading to more yards before contact than Henry has seen to this point in the season. The increased pass game involvement will be needed for a Week 4 showdown against division rivals Indianapolis Colts, a team allowing just 77.0 rush yards per game through three weeks.
Sep 25, 2022, 5:06 PM ET

 

[Insein]

Starting to knock off the rust. Preseason almost over for him now.

 

[The Frankman]

Derrick Henry rushed 22 times for 114 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' Week 4 victory over the Colts, adding three catches for an additional 33 yards.​

Henry appeared destined for a classic eruption game after finishing the first half with 99 yards and one touchdown on the ground, but was bottled up in the second half as the Titans went into a shell up 24-10. They went on to be blanked on the scoreboard in the second half for consecutive weeks, ultimately holding Henry's game log in check. Henry also had a would-be second 20-yard rushing score called back by a Treylon Burks holding call in the second quarter. The five targets mark two contests in a row with five or more targets for Henry, who will now look towards the Commanders and their 21st-ranked rushing defense in Week 5.
- NBCSportsEDGE

 

[FairWarning]

What are people thinking about Henry going forward? There is a interesting trade offer in a local league here - K Walker for Henry, yardage only.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

What are people thinking about Henry going forward? There is a interesting trade offer in a local league here - K Walker for Henry, yardage only.

That is an interesting one. Depends on team standings and if they are making a run at title. I am actually looking to get Henry from a rebuilding team in my dynasty. Montgomery/Herbert and Devonta Smith for Henry is what he wants. I am trying to swap Smith for Aiyuk. Not sure that will work though.

 

[joey]

What are people thinking about Henry going forward? There is a interesting trade offer in a local league here - K Walker for Henry, yardage only.

Dynasty? If so, you kind of have to go with Walker imo unless you are absolutely Win Now.

 

[FairWarning]

What are people thinking about Henry going forward? There is a interesting trade offer in a local league here - K Walker for Henry, yardage only.

Dynasty? If so, you kind of have to go with Walker imo unless you are absolutely Win Now.

Redraft. I ran the league scoring thru this site’s rest of the year rankings, Henry was 3rd. The offer was rescinded.