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ADP and Addai are great fantasy backs, but they are both losing carries to RBBC, same as MBIII. I'd argue that TJ is being used as if he's in a committee already.
How exactly did Baltimore join the RBBC gang? McGahee will still get the vast majority of carries (75-80%).
i doubt that Rudi will be the sole ball carrier. I see Watson doing what he did last year. And Who is Portis sharing with? GB is also looking to get Brandon jackson more involved this year.
Rice really has little effect on Mcgahee, he's there to replace Musa Smith.Teams with starting RBs draft backup RBs in the second round all the time. Hell, that's how Musa was drafted in the first place a few years back.
Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
So what? That's just a reminder that Musa was a bad backup in need of upgrading. Do you really think Ray Rice is a threat to steal a ton of carries from McGahee? I'm not even a Willis fan...yet the Rice pick strikes me as no big deal.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
Allegedly.Besides, you're underestimating how solid Musa Smith was.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
McGahee does have a rebuilt knee that was savagely (not just your typical ACL) injured his last year in college. What is his lifespan in the NFL? I figure Rice is insurance.So what? That's just a reminder that Musa was a bad backup in need of upgrading. Do you really think Ray Rice is a threat to steal a ton of carries from McGahee? I'm not even a Willis fan...yet the Rice pick strikes me as no big deal.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.Rice really has little effect on Mcgahee, he's there to replace Musa Smith.Teams with starting RBs draft backup RBs in the second round all the time. Hell, that's how Musa was drafted in the first place a few years back.
I don't expect Rice to do much this year, but he has a good shot at taking over in 2010 when McGahee's contract jumps up.McGahee does have a rebuilt knee that was savagely (not just your typical ACL) injured his last year in college. What is his lifespan in the NFL? I figure Rice is insurance.So what? That's just a reminder that Musa was a bad backup in need of upgrading. Do you really think Ray Rice is a threat to steal a ton of carries from McGahee? I'm not even a Willis fan...yet the Rice pick strikes me as no big deal.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
Betts has stolen carries from Portis in the last 3 years because of injuries. Clinton was generally healthy last year, so he was tyhe clear number 1. I don't see Washington as RBBC, but I don't consider Portis a safe pick either. There are a lot of miles on those wheels at a very young age and there have always been rumors that he doesn't take care of his body like other NFL running backs
No, he's not.Allegedly.Besides, you're underestimating how solid Musa Smith was.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
The emergence of the 2-back system and its impact on FF is the basis of an article idea i am going to work on over the summer. Want to analyze the trend in the NFL and see if it is true, and then see whether there has been an impact on FF numbers over the last 5 years, and then project what effect the trend will have on the next 5 years in FF.Ambitious data gathering, so I may cut the scope a bit.
Exactly. But this has zero impact on McGahee in the short term.I don't expect Rice to do much this year, but he has a good shot at taking over in 2010 when McGahee's contract jumps up.McGahee does have a rebuilt knee that was savagely (not just your typical ACL) injured his last year in college. What is his lifespan in the NFL? I figure Rice is insurance.So what? That's just a reminder that Musa was a bad backup in need of upgrading. Do you really think Ray Rice is a threat to steal a ton of carries from McGahee? I'm not even a Willis fan...yet the Rice pick strikes me as no big deal.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.Rice really has little effect on Mcgahee, he's there to replace Musa Smith.Teams with starting RBs draft backup RBs in the second round all the time. Hell, that's how Musa was drafted in the first place a few years back.
Yes but mostly as a change of pace back. Grant is the man with Jackson taking a few carries.
The game is changing - guys like LT and S JAx are even more valuable with all these RBBCs. FWP? I am not sure I would even want him as a RB#2 if its a true RBBC cause I doubt he would be the one getting the TD carries. At least MBIII would get TD and yards - just not enough to be a true #1 RB IMO.
Given Rice's reputation for maintaining, and even increasing his effectiveness as games wear on, plus his nose for the endzone, I have to think that Baltimore finds a way to get him involved, either in short yardage/goalline situations, or as a complimentary back, to keep McGahee fresher in games. McGahee wore down, as evidenced by his 2.8 ypc in the 4th Q. So last year's 75/25 split with Musa Smith probably becomes 65/35 if Rice shows anything. The positive for McGahee is that I would expect the Ravens to be even more run-heavy this year, and score more than 10 rushing TDs, so it shouldn't have as big of an impact on McGahee's stats relative to last year. But it definitely makes his ceiling alot lower, in my opinion.And yes, I am a big Rutgers homer.Exactly. But this has zero impact on McGahee in the short term.I don't expect Rice to do much this year, but he has a good shot at taking over in 2010 when McGahee's contract jumps up.McGahee does have a rebuilt knee that was savagely (not just your typical ACL) injured his last year in college. What is his lifespan in the NFL? I figure Rice is insurance.So what? That's just a reminder that Musa was a bad backup in need of upgrading. Do you really think Ray Rice is a threat to steal a ton of carries from McGahee? I'm not even a Willis fan...yet the Rice pick strikes me as no big deal.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
there are a lot of players I would rather draft in any part of the 2nd or 3rd rd over FWP. I think his value is pretty much in the toilet from a fantasy perspective. I was already nervous about Davenport taking GL carries and Moore taking passing downs. The Mendenhall pick pretty much seals the deal for me
I think you're underestimating Rice. I'm not suggesting that he's taking McGahee's job this year. I'm saying that whatever percentage of carries the backups would have gotten or have gotten will increase. Rice is also a small, but very good short-yardage/goal line back. He'll get some opps for garbage TDs and they won't shy away from him when he spells McGahee, regardless of down/distance. McGahee is also a collision back. He may last a while, but you can't count on those kind of guys to stay healthy, ie Ronnie Brown. I'm not intending to draft him as a week in, week out starter. He is a bye week/injury fill-in this year, likely next but I expect him to inherit this starting job in the future.Allegedly.Besides, you're underestimating how solid Musa Smith was.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.Rice really has little effect on Mcgahee, he's there to replace Musa Smith.Teams with starting RBs draft backup RBs in the second round all the time. Hell, that's how Musa was drafted in the first place a few years back.
Well, just because the NFL is changing its philosophy does not necessarily mean FF numbers have changed all that much - I *suspect* it has, but we'll see what the data set proves out once I run it.The game is changing - guys like LT and S JAx are even more valuable with all these RBBCs. FWP? I am not sure I would even want him as a RB#2 if its a true RBBC cause I doubt he would be the one getting the TD carries. At least MBIII would get TD and yards - just not enough to be a true #1 RB IMO.
Barber will be first round value this year (just like the last 2 years) and will split carries less than the last 2 years. But people will be nervous about the rookie stealing carries so Barber should slip into 2nd rounds which is great news for us savvy owners!Also, Barber showed last year that he may not be able to handle the fulltime role so any RB can come in and steal 5-10 carries a game is only good news for Barber's health.We saw this last year somewhat. It may be coincidental, but my first three picks in one league were Manning, Wayne, Andre Johnson...and that team won it all by using RBBC-type guys. Next year's first, and especially second rounds are going to be very intersesting.
In a 12-team league, I'm not sure why RB15-RB16 isn't late 2nd round unless you completely discount the value of other positions which, these days, only works in guppy leagues.
Isn't that an oxymoron?
Assuming, conservatively, that 8 of the first 12 are RBs, the other 4 will be WRs Qbs - right? Those teams are more likely to take RBs on the comeback, right? We can count on, as a drop dead reality, 12 RBs gone by the mid 2nd regardless of skill level of draft. Projecting a RB or two beyond that does not convert the league to a "guppy" league.In fact, I would expect a greater run on RBs in "shark" leagues because folks get scared of the value drop and figure they can always snag WRs/QBs later using their "shark" skills. Looking at our staff leagues and SP leagues as proof (and those are PPR leagues), that theory pretty much holds true. Of the first 24 picks in any kind of league, @ least 15 are RBs and more likely 18 will be - that assumes 4 WRs and 2 QBs. I think that is reasonable regardless of league type.In a 12-team league, I'm not sure why RB15-RB16 isn't late 2nd round unless you completely discount the value of other positions which, these days, only works in guppy leagues.
I expect he'll be drafted higher than that; ergo I won't draft him in many if any leagues.Assuming, conservatively, that 8 of the first 12 are RBs, the other 4 will be WRs Qbs - right? Those teams are more likely to take RBs on the comeback, right? We can count on, as a drop dead reality, 12 RBs gone by the mid 2nd regardless of skill level of draft. Projecting a RB or two beyond that does not convert the league to a "guppy" league.In fact, I would expect a greater run on RBs in "shark" leagues because folks get scared of the value drop and figure they can always snag WRs/QBs later using their "shark" skills. Looking at our staff leagues and SP leagues as proof (and those are PPR leagues), that theory pretty much holds true. Of the first 24 picks in any kind of league, @ least 15 are RBs and more likely 18 will be - that assumes 4 WRs and 2 QBs. I think that is reasonable regardless of league type.In a 12-team league, I'm not sure why RB15-RB16 isn't late 2nd round unless you completely discount the value of other positions which, these days, only works in guppy leagues.
So, as I asked, you see FWP as closer to RB20 than RB15?
McGahee has never played 16 games. He barely averages 4 ypc and his long speed has diminished a bit. He's not a leader, either. He "needed motivation" and the Ravens thought they could have his old "The U" buddies keep him motivated. I hope Rice falls to me in a few dynasty leagues.I think you're underestimating Rice. I'm not suggesting that he's taking McGahee's job this year. I'm saying that whatever percentage of carries the backups would have gotten or have gotten will increase. Rice is also a small, but very good short-yardage/goal line back. He'll get some opps for garbage TDs and they won't shy away from him when he spells McGahee, regardless of down/distance. McGahee is also a collision back. He may last a while, but you can't count on those kind of guys to stay healthy, ie Ronnie Brown. I'm not intending to draft him as a week in, week out starter. He is a bye week/injury fill-in this year, likely next but I expect him to inherit this starting job in the future.Allegedly.Besides, you're underestimating how solid Musa Smith was.Except that he's better than M.Smith and more durable.
Amazingly, I think I can say that I'm a happy Travis Henry owner.
i agree, but your going to find a bunch of people who try to talk up the 5th rounder Torain.Personally i wouldn't fear a 5th rounder at all, but many people see Denver/RB and lose their sanity regardless of how late the guy was drafted. Not to mention Torain is coming off one of the worst possible injuries a RB can have, the dreaded LisFranc injury.
LOL. Shanahan has proven that he doesn't care who is in the backfield, he's always looking for a new starter. (unless he has T Davis) NFL.com had an analysis of Torain -- his NFL comparison....Mike Anderson. They touted him as a classic one-cut RB. Hmmm...where would he fit? Oh yeah, Denver.
As i said above."many people see Denver/RB and lose their sanity regardless of how late the guy was drafted."
Look, I'm not saying "draft Torain in the 1st round of rookie drafts". But it's ridiculous to suggest that he doesn't have value. Shanahan looks to replace his RB every year. Do you dispute that? His track record makes it patently obvious.Notice a pattern below?2007 Rushing LeadersTravis Henry - 167 carries, 691 yds, 4 TDsSelvin Young - 140 carries, 729 yds, 1 TD2006 Rushing LeadersTatum Bell - 233 carries, 1,025 yds, 2 TDsMike Bell - 157 carries, 677 yds, 8 TDs2005 Rushing LeadersMike Anderson - 239 carries, 1014 yds, 12 TDsTatum Bell - 173 carries, 921 yds, 8 TDs2004 Rushing LeadersReuben Droughns - 275 carries, 1240 yds, 6 TDsQuentin Griffin - 85 carries, 311 yds, 2 TDs2003 Rushing LeadersClinton Portis - 290 carries, 1591 yds, 14 TDsQuentin Griffin - 94 carries, 345 yds, 0 TDs
I'm not saying Torain has no shot, but he's a complete shot in the dark.Let me ask you this, what are the odds you think he'll have > 50 carries this coming season?My estimate would be around 5%, especially since he's coming off a LisFranc injury. I'd assume many people lose all logic when seeing DEN/RB together and believe that percentage to be much higher.All i'm saying is that his perceived value will be FAR greater than what his actual value should be at this point in time. He's not even a lock to make the roster.
Blame Shanahan for drafting a stiff late in the draft. It's his fault.
Look buddy, I'm just responding to moderated slamming some guy.....for implying that Torain has value. It was a tool-ish move....and it smacks of massive denial.Marc Levin said:
Perhaps as I don't expect both Green/Brown to make it through the season (or first 4 games) injury free. I really don't see what he (Slaton) brings to the table that Darius Walker didn't, but Slaton will get the shot.
A tool-ish move???I'm not slamming Torain personally. I'm slamming the fact that people are giving a 5th round pick WAY too much value at this point in time.Go look at the dynasty mock thread where numerous people have him going in the 1st round of their dynasty drafts. That is the definition of people losing their sanity be seeing DEN/RB together.What you call massive denial i call being realistic.Take a deep breath and calm down, then look at the situation with a clear head and you'll see what i'm saying.
I dont think Slaton can be a full time RB in Hou, but depending on how he is used, a PPR league could reward a poor mans Brian Westbrook.
