Exactly! He looks slow, unable to break the first tackle and has put the ball on the carpet at an alarming rate. Despite no serious injuries, he has major tread on those tires and the heavy workload has taken its toll. Say what you want, but Pollard looks substantially quicker and more elusive. I know they have big invested in Zeke, but if they want to put a better product on the field, this would become a timeshare and Pollard would at least be featured in a passing down role. If I remember correctly, Bloom had Pollard on his buy low list a few weeks back. In my opinion, now is the time to buy low on Pollard in dynasty leagues.
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RB Ezekiel Elliott, Free Agent (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It been awhile but I have seen studies done on this and mathematically no correlation was found between a certain threshold of carries and a players performance declining. What was found is that the more a player carries the ball, the more likely it is the player will carry the ball frequently in the future.
I am pretty sold on this and I feel that this angle has been pretty thoroughly debunked. I think that is why we don't hear about it as often now as we used to. Also teams are just not giving their RB the ball as much as they used to, for this to even be an issue that comes up much now days.
Yet just the other day I am listening to Gary Kubiak who is being asked about Cooks workload and he says flat out that they know about these things, which suggests there is a certain number of carries or a threshold that the coaches are looking at when managing their players and making decisions about them long term.
So if Gary says its a fact I am willing to revisit this although I still remain skeptical.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'd be interested in seeing how that data was interpreted because that just seems absurd on its face.
I'd start with "what was the threshold" and then ask "is that from game to game or year to year"? For the second question I could buy the conclusion for game to game but not year to year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The studies I am talking about looked at the total number of carries in a season and how many carries that player historically had in year N +1 and the more carries the RB had the more likely it was for them to have a lot of carries again in the following season.
Obviously the player is going to fall off at some point of their career and I think that is what Gary is talking about although I suppose its possible he is talking about a number of carries in a game instead. I guess I would need to listen to that again. He doesn't go into detail at all but my ears did perk up about how certain he sounded about this being a thing.
I will give this idea some more attention in regards to Elliot in days ahead.
According to the VBD study I did Elliot should have 3 more useful season left based on his age coming in to the league and his draft position. He is in the group that beats the average for their careers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So here is an article talking about RB performance declining after the player has 1800 total carries. Seems pretty straight forward right? But the sample only includes 8 players. I don't think that is enough.
Reaching this number of carries is a feat within itself as there are only 51 players to have 1800 or more rushing attempts. This would be the sample to use to see if this found trend for 8 players actually applies to all of them or not and to what extent?
At an average of 300 rushing attempts per season this would be 6 seasons to reach this number. Which is where we see decline in RB performance from my study, after six seasons. It still isn't clear to me what the cause is. Is it the number of carries? The mileage? Or is it because of the players age? It takes time to accumulate that many rushing attempts and by the time they do, they are also old by then. So was it the carries? Or was it because of their age?
Obviously a ton of players production declines before they reach 1800 carries, with only 51 players ever reaching this threshold. The RB necessarily must be old by the time they do reach 1800.
I will run the numbers on the 51 players and see what that says, but I am already seeing how cooked the books are here though and I think the conclusion of the author I quoted is misleading.
FWIW Elliot currently has 1319 rushing attempts. So by this method he still has 580 to go before reaching this threshold. At 20 carries per game career average this is 29 more games 7 of which will be played this season, so 22 more left or a season and a half before he reaches the 1800 mark. The decline is not necessarily precipitous either but gradual. So Elliot may still be valuable beyond 1800 even if his performance sees a 18% decline in rushing yards.
For the purpose of this study I will not include players who retired before their decline like Barry Sanders. I also won't include players who fell off because of injury. We are trying to identify the players who wear down due to mileage, not fall off a cliff for things completely unrelated to that.
Reaching this number of carries is a feat within itself as there are only 51 players to have 1800 or more rushing attempts. This would be the sample to use to see if this found trend for 8 players actually applies to all of them or not and to what extent?
At an average of 300 rushing attempts per season this would be 6 seasons to reach this number. Which is where we see decline in RB performance from my study, after six seasons. It still isn't clear to me what the cause is. Is it the number of carries? The mileage? Or is it because of the players age? It takes time to accumulate that many rushing attempts and by the time they do, they are also old by then. So was it the carries? Or was it because of their age?
Obviously a ton of players production declines before they reach 1800 carries, with only 51 players ever reaching this threshold. The RB necessarily must be old by the time they do reach 1800.
I will run the numbers on the 51 players and see what that says, but I am already seeing how cooked the books are here though and I think the conclusion of the author I quoted is misleading.
FWIW Elliot currently has 1319 rushing attempts. So by this method he still has 580 to go before reaching this threshold. At 20 carries per game career average this is 29 more games 7 of which will be played this season, so 22 more left or a season and a half before he reaches the 1800 mark. The decline is not necessarily precipitous either but gradual. So Elliot may still be valuable beyond 1800 even if his performance sees a 18% decline in rushing yards.
For the purpose of this study I will not include players who retired before their decline like Barry Sanders. I also won't include players who fell off because of injury. We are trying to identify the players who wear down due to mileage, not fall off a cliff for things completely unrelated to that.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think that is the hamstring more than anything. Pollard wasn't getting meaningful work until Zeke picked up the hamstring injury and looked bad.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Even just anecdotally, virtually all the players that had really long careers were high workhorse guys.
Martin, Emmitt, Peterson, Gore, Bus.
Meanwhile there were lots of guys with lower workloads or late starts like Charles and Westbrook that people pontificated would be able to stretch out their careers longer because of it, but they were toast before they hit 30.
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Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Did you find that he slowed down and can’t break a tackle at the same time Daks leg got snapped?
No, but I appreciate the question. Let me help you out here: Zeke’s decline actually started last year, not this season. Despite great grades from both Pro Football Focus/Football Outsiders last season, indicating the Cowboys' line can still be considered very good, Zeke posted a career-low in yards per game. His longest run the past 3 years is 38 yards. It’s abundantly clear that he lacks the burst we were accustomed to seeing at Ohio Stare and in his rookie year. At this point in his career, Zeke is a good RB, but certainly not elite.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not sure the 1800 carry threshold is worth looking at further since the sample size is going to include some of the best RB in NFL history.
turkishkamel
Footballguy
Lost two more o lineman today too, including Zach Martin
https://twitter.com/marcus_mosher/status/1332104379902681088?s=21
Marcus is spot on! I was also glad to hear Aikman acknowledge that Zeke doesn’t have that burst anymore (pre hammy issue). Zeke with yet another fumble and putrid performance (6 fumbles in his last 10 games
). They still have 90 mil guaranteed left on his hideous deal, which will be a noose around the their neck the next two years.
Marcus is spot on! I was also glad to hear Aikman acknowledge that Zeke doesn’t have that burst anymore (pre hammy issue). Zeke with yet another fumble and putrid performance (6 fumbles in his last 10 games
). They still have 90 mil guaranteed left on his hideous deal, which will be a noose around the their neck the next two years. Yeah, people are definitely starting to shy away from him. Hopefully he turns it around next year, but I doubt it.
I don’t know. I would def say his value is at an all-time low.
A healthy O Line and Dak back under center might do wonders for him.
I would also guess his motivation right now couldn’t be lower. I mean what is playing for right now?
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
I’m skeptical. Don’t see any difference between him and Pollard
Kevrunner
Footballguy
What were some of the parameters discussed? I like Zeke as a buy low. He’s still a first round pick in redraft next year.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Things fell apart when Dak went down. Elliott will be fine when Dak returns.
in 5 games with Dak he had 537 total yards and 6 TD’s.
He’s still only 25.
in 5 games with Dak he had 537 total yards and 6 TD’s.
He’s still only 25.
whole-show
Footballguy
Questionable for Sunday but expected to play per Jon Machota
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I think its also worth pointing out, 5 of his last 6 games have been against stout run defenses. Bal Pit Phi and Was x 2. Pretty rough stretch. The other game, Min, he had a good game.
turkishkamel
Footballguy
Dak along with Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La'el Collins, and a slew of other O lineman.
I think we're up to 17 different starting line combos this year.
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Bobtender
Footballguy
This is my situation... trying to decided which one to start. Leaning Pollard right now 4.5 before kickoff.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I like Taylor this week, but don't think I could sit Elliott. Not sure this helps, but I am starting Elliott over Diontae Johnson.
whole-show
Footballguy
Active week 14
turkishkamel
Footballguy
Haha, starting was the wrong word. Still, 9 line combos through first 8 games. 15 through 11 games.
