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RB Ezekiel Elliott, Free Agent (3 Viewers)

If we aren't chalking the Dallas Cowboys 2020 season up as a complete and total loss, involving a bevy of reserve players from the dismantled offensive line to the platoon of QB's thrown under center... I think we have a difference of opinion.  I banked on the down season and picked Zeke up for what I considered to be pennies on the dollar (Melvin Gordon/Kenyan Drake and 1.12).  

Also, comparing Zeke to Gurley is ludicrous.  Gurley was more of a straightline runner than Zeke.  Watch Zeke run, he is signficantly more patient than Gurley.  Want a tape of Gurley running?  Watch him against the 6-1 defense the Patriots ran in SB 53.  That was the demise of Todd Gurley.  They figured out if you could just 2 gap the center - Gurley would just plod his face directly into the line.  Unpopular opinion, but Gurley was an average RB with a great offensive scheme.

Zeke avoids contact, where the last 2 years of Gurley's career was spent diving into his linemen's asses.  

Give me all the Zeke shares.  He hasn't finished outside the top 12 ever.  Tony Pollard doesn't scare me.  Dak's runs inside the 5 do a bit, but I think if you want a guaranteed RB2 with significant RB1 upside for half the asking price of a Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook - Zeke is cheap in Dynasty Leagues. 

 
. Zeke had 3 runs over 20 yards last year in 244 carries. Pollard had 4 in 101 carries.
I knew Zeke was bad last year at breaking off long runs but I never took time to look at his history and see how poor he's been basically since his rookie season and has been downright awful the last two years.  In a way you could use this as a positive for his value and I mean that in the sense that he's basically sucked at breaking off long runs but still been elite for fantasy so you could make a very compelling case that it's not a huge deal.

But here is some stats that are kind of surprising to me:

In Elliot's last 1,108 carries he's had exactly one run longer then 40 yards. That run was in 2018.

In Elliot's last 577 carries he had 7 runs total were he got longer then 20 yards.

To put this in some kind of context  last year James Robinson in 240 carries had 5 runs over 20 yards and one over 40 and all we've heard from the Jags staff all off-season is how they want more explosive plays out of their RB's.

 
Just saw this in my timeline. Next Gen Stats from NFL. I do not know how they define this.

NFL Rumors

@nflrums

9h

Most explosive runs in the #NFL over the past 3 seasons: #NFLRumors Next Gen Stats

#Titans Derrick Henry - 122

#Cowboys Eziekel Elliott - 107

#Browns Nick Chubb - 105

#Ravens Lamar Jackson - 102

#Vikings Dalivn Cook - 93

#Seahawks Chris Carson -86

#Falcons Todd Gurley - 76

 
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It’s defined by runs of at least 10 yards
Thank you.

So not bad, but maybe still a product of his line in those instances. And that may be weighted heavily towards 2018, so we don't really know what that means in terms of decline, which is really the overall point of this discussion, but I figured I'd throw it out there. Still a league leader over the past three years. But so was Todd Gurley, and he's -- sadly -- cooked already.

 
NFL Rumors

@nflrums
You are just passing on info and I don't mean to crap on it so please don't take this the wrong way but I don't believe a thing that twitter handle puts out unless I can directly verify it. For purposes of my next response I'll assume the info is accurate but personally I don't trust it unless someone can link me to Next Gen Stats providing this info.

It’s defined by runs of at least 10 yards
I can't say what criteria they might have used, assuming the information is correct. But NGS put out an article listing top explosive runners for 2020 and this is how they defined it:

A minimum of 100 carries was required to create a group of qualifiers with relative volume. From there, we examined the total number and percentage of 15-plus mph runs as the defining measurement of an explosive run. And to truly filter through the masses to find the best, we required a minimum of 20 runs that resulted in a gain of 10-plus yards.

To review, here are our three criteria:

A minimum of 100 carries in 2020.

At least 20 carries of 10-plus yards.

The defining metrics: the total number and percentage of 15-plus mph runs.

Link: https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-10-most-explosive-runners-of-2020-kyler-murray-lamar-jackson-atop

My take without looking it up: As they kind of alluded to this is a very volume driven stat. In my response to Rockaction I indicated I don't believe anything the twitter handle NFLRumors puts out without directly verifying it but this info seems reasonable to believe because it's a volume driven stat that is close to 100% alignment with volume.

Here is what NFL Rumors list as top 6 explosive plays by a RB over the last 3 years:

1. Henry

2.Elliot

3. Chubb

4. Cook

5. Carson

6. Gurley

Here is the top rushing attempt RB's over last 3 years:

1. Henry

2. Elliot

3. Cook

4. Chubb

5. Gurley

6. Carson

Seems like a pretty volume driven stat and out of those 6 RB's the only one Elliot had a higher percentage of NGS definition of explosive runs was currently unemployed Gurley.

So not bad, but maybe still a product of his line in those instances. And that may be weighted heavily towards 2018, so we don't really know what that means in terms of decline, which is really the overall point of this discussion, but I figured I'd throw it out there. Still a league leader over the past three years. But so was Todd Gurley, and he's -- sadly -- cooked already.
Besides the other issues I just brought up yes the fact if the stat is accurate it includes 2018  which I'm not sure how helpful including 3 seasons ago when trying to ascertain if a RB is in decline helps. I know this much however. I provided a link to 2020 NGS top 10 explosive runners above and here is a link for 2019 and Elliot is not showing for either of those years, even got beat out by Gurley in 2019: https://www.nfl.com/news/lamar-jackson-dalvin-cook-among-nfl-s-10-most-explosive-runners

I tried to locate 2018 NGS top explosive runners but I could not locate it. Does not mean it does not exist, but I could not find it.

 
I can't say what criteria they might have used, assuming the information is correct. But NGS put out an article listing top explosive runners for 2020 and this is how they defined it:

A minimum of 100 carries was required to create a group of qualifiers with relative volume. From there, we examined the total number and percentage of 15-plus mph runs as the defining measurement of an explosive run. And to truly filter through the masses to find the best, we required a minimum of 20 runs that resulted in a gain of 10-plus yards.

To review, here are our three criteria:

A minimum of 100 carries in 2020.

At least 20 carries of 10-plus yards.

The defining metrics: the total number and percentage of 15-plus mph runs.

Link: https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-10-most-explosive-runners-of-2020-kyler-murray-lamar-jackson-atop

Besides the other issues I just brought up yes the fact if the stat is accurate it includes 2018  which I'm not sure how helpful including 3 seasons ago when trying to ascertain if a RB is in decline helps. I know this much however. I provided a link to 2020 NGS top 10 explosive runners above and here is a link for 2019 and Elliot is not showing for either of those years, even got beat out by Gurley in 2019: https://www.nfl.com/news/lamar-jackson-dalvin-cook-among-nfl-s-10-most-explosive-runners
Thanks for posting that. I thought it was the actual NGS that had posted, but I appear to be mistaken. Lots of people retweeted it, so there may be egg on a lot of faces. Your points are certainly taken.

 
Well 15 mph seems rather arbitrary without some explanation of why it should be a defining metric.

I am trying to keep an open mind about this but my BS detector is sure making a fuss right now.

 
It’s because analytics are dumb. 
Well I might be alone on this but as a descriptive stat I think it would communicate to us better if the metric were converted into yards per second as this is the scale that we might actually care about here.

I don't care how many miles they can run in an hour as the game will be over by then.

 
Well I might be alone on this but as a descriptive stat I think it would communicate to us better if the metric were converted into yards per second as this is the scale that we might actually care about here.

I don't care how many miles they can run in an hour as the game will be over by then.
My thing on analytics and statistical analysis is that it’s never equal. 
 

Compaiing EE stats to anyone is frivolous at best unless the exact same game conditions are met. 
 

EE’s performance week 10 cannot be compared to another players performance week 2. Even if it’s the same team, there are far too many different factors such as down and distance, score of the game, fatigue levels, time of day, different defensive schemes and on and on and on. 

 
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My thing on analytics and statistical analysis is that it’s never equal. 
 

Compaiing EE stats to anyone is frivolous at best unless the exact same game conditions are met. 
 

EE’s performance week 10 cannot be compared to another players performance week 2. Even if it’s the same team, there are far too many different factors such as down and distance, score of the game, fatigue levels, time of day, different defensive schemes and on and on and on. 
I am in full agreement that there are too many variables for us to ever form a complete picture just from data.

What we were talking about before, the expected yards per play data does take into account things like down and distance so I think that is better than just measuring a players top speed on a play. 

Without paying much attention to this mph data I have noticed that the top speeds are often when a player has actually broken free in the open field and so they are able to just reach their top speed as they are not trying to avoid defenders. Or on the defensive side of the ball the top speeds were usually when a defensive back was returning an interception.

Most of the NFL plays the players are not moving at top speed during the play.

What I think these metrics are trying to ask or point to in regards to Elliot is if he has lost his burst, his speed or not. Some of these metrics seem to be suggesting that he has but I am not confident in the metrics enough to draw that conclusion from them.

 
It's almost like nobody has seen Ezekiel Elliott play and we are just relying off these odd stats.  

Have a look: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CJvUpV2jp0

Zeke seriously never takes hard hits and has been one of the healthier RBs out of the top RBs in the league.  We are all over the board in this post.  He is declining and his body can't sustain the punishment.  Watch some of these screen passes and wheel routes he absolutely demolishes defenses on.  Then watch him avoid contact or even go out of bounds at times.  Then we throw out stats on his last 1100 carries, well that basically excludes Zeke's entire rookie season - where had 5 rushes for over 40 yards and 20 rushes over 15.  

I can skew any numbers to make someone sound more superior than the other.  

 
  Then we throw out stats on his last 1100 carries, well that basically excludes Zeke's entire rookie season - where had 5 rushes for over 40 yards and 20 rushes over 15.  
The point is to illustrate he's not the guy anymore form his early years and 1100 carries is hardly some kind of  small cherry picking sample size.

He's not the player he used to be. He's still a very skilled 3 down RB who is durable and gets a ton of volume on a high scoring offense and that has a lot of value but he's not what he used to be and it's not because Dak and some OL got hurt.

 
The point is to illustrate he's not the guy anymore form his early years and 1100 carries is hardly some kind of  small cherry picking sample size.

He's not the player he used to be. He's still a very skilled 3 down RB who is durable and gets a ton of volume on a high scoring offense and that has a lot of value but he's not what he used to be and it's not because Dak and some OL got hurt.
Agreed. I would just add that losing Dak and "some OL" ( HOF LT, All-PRO RG and RT) exacerbates the decline. 

I think the only thing EE has lost is the top end speed. I have always question his conditioning but suspect that's from smoking so much weed. HATE it when I see him waiving to the sideline. 

 
I think people should also remember that the guy had COVID last year. Myles Garrett, who looked like absolute world-beater last year before he got it, looked like a shell of himself after. I can't believe that Zeke wasn't affected by that.

Look, he's 25. He's had a ton of touches. He may well be on the decline, but I'd look for two years of really good productivity before the out in his contract. Pollard is a different kind of back than Zeke. They'll share the workload, but not as much as people think.  

 
menobrown said:
He's not the player he used to be. He's still a very skilled 3 down RB who is durable and gets a ton of volume on a high scoring offense and that has a lot of value but he's not what he used to be and it's not because Dak and some OL got hurt.
I just don't see the great decline outside of last year.  Regardless of the length of his rushes, he's a great receiver and always seems to find positive yards.  I don't really care if it is 15 yards a clip.  As a fantasy back - he only has 2 "down" years - 2017 10 game suspension season where he finished 9th and last year where the Cowboys were riddled with injury.  I can see we are going to have differing viewpoints regardless and that is fine.  I just will never see what you are saying.  His volume isn't in jeopardy, unless it is from Dak.  Which, if you want my 2 cents on Dak running, I think it happens less this year.  All in on Zeke.  

 
Thats normally how it works bro
You are the guy I buy low from because you refuse to see how a decimated offensive line and QB injuries to the point you are starting a 7th round rookie QB might effect the overall performance of a talented RB on a pretty high profile offense.  If you have a single season outlier with a variety of different variables but you're pinning it on the only healthy player "falling off a cliff" - that doesn't seem sensible to me.  Especially, when that cliff landed him at the #11 RB.  I would rank Zeke as a top 6 RB and I could easily see him finishing ahead of some of the guys in my ranking.

CMC//Saquon//Dalvin Cook//Derrick Henry//Kamara//Zeke - not in any order.  

 
You are the guy I buy low from because you refuse to see how a decimated offensive line and QB injuries to the point you are starting a 7th round rookie QB might effect the overall performance of a talented RB on a pretty high profile offense.  If you have a single season outlier with a variety of different variables but you're pinning it on the only healthy player "falling off a cliff" - that doesn't seem sensible to me.  Especially, when that cliff landed him at the #11 RB.  I would rank Zeke as a top 6 RB and I could easily see him finishing ahead of some of the guys in my ranking.

CMC//Saquon//Dalvin Cook//Derrick Henry//Kamara//Zeke - not in any order.  
6th best running back is mid to late 2nd round.  Pretty much where I said his value is.  But carry on.  

 
34th (of 47 qualifying backs) on /carry YBC

he was def getting hit almost immediately often on carries & I think the offense was very predictable.

that said, we’ve seen this movie before, right? generational talent gets a massive amount of touches in his first 3-4 years and then falls off a cliff: Gurley the last couple years, Earl Campbell back in the day. he def looked average at times but sometimes it’s really hard to separate bad O-line play & a RB who has lost his edge. 

OTOH, I’d love to see a Venn diagram of FF managers who think he’s toast and who drafted him with 3rd pick a year ago. probably looks a lot like the folks who took Sanders 9th or Mixon 11th and have them on their 2021 DND list.

one to think about here @TS Garp - if you believe Elliott is still a Kareem Hunt level talent (e.g., he’s no longer great but he should still be good), then he’s a really good candidate for positive regression. In 2019 he converted 10/18 inside the 5. Last year it was 5/26. If you look at historical data, of all the backs who have seen 20 RZ carries inside the 5, none had converted less than 6. The average was 9. Just from a mathematical standpoint he was a little unlucky. In addition, Dak scored 3 rush TDs in 4-2/3rds GP. It’s reasonable to expect Dak’s rush TD to decline and Zeke’s to increase to historical average. IOW, I’m not saying Elliott has always been amazing and he’s gonna be amazing again. I’m saying he’s still the man in D and if he has the same RZ chances and converts at an average rate in 202 then he’ll see positive regression
can we just stop with this nonsense talk already? please, just.stop. I've seen the greatest NFL players in my time, in their prime. LT, Montana, Steve Young, Harry Carson, Lt2, M. Faulk, Marcus Allen, Reggie White, Marino, Ronnie Lott, Jerry Rice, etc. I never once heard anyone ever call any of these guys 'generational talent'. listen, some script kiddie millennial used that phrase once and y'all jump on it like it actually means something like it's the next big thing.  it's a lousy catchphrase, just retire it already. it's so cringeworthy it's comical. that catchphrase QB in Kc really stunk up the joint in the SB didn't he? I don't remember Montana, Rice, LT stinking it up in a SB.just sayin..

is positive regression an actual thing, anyways? I mean, you've regressed right? is that a positive thing?

Zeke, like many other players, was affected by covid. affected by the umbrella that hung over the nfl all season - one that was a giant rumor that the season would be cancelled. so why would some people go all out in a lost season? other parts of his demise included Daks injury, the new coaching staff not really hellbent on running the ball, etc. you wanna say McCarthy killed Zeke to stat monster? ok I'll agree. but he didn't lose talent.

I do not think one bit of his 'down' performance was due to physical regression, age, etc.

sometimes players see the writing on the wall and just play to not get hurt, instead of playing to help their teams win games.

there's no sense in going all out when you're destined to be a losing team 

in 2020 Zeke had the lowest att/gm of his career. clearly that had a lot to do with his insignificant campaign.  he needs work to get stats, give him 20 carries/gm he's feasting.give him 16, he's barely breaking a sweat. it's like he's a visitor on his own tea,.

he HAD the regression last season, now he seems, by your post, to be a buy low candidate. If that's your opinion, I agree. I think he returns to prominence this season. 

 
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Tanner9919 said:
can we just stop with this nonsense talk already? please, just.stop. I've seen the greatest NFL players in my time, in their prime. LT, Montana, Steve Young, Harry Carson, Lt2, M. Faulk, Marcus Allen, Reggie White, Marino, Ronnie Lott, Jerry Rice, etc. I never once heard anyone ever call any of these guys 'generational talent'. listen, some script kiddie millennial used that phrase once and y'all jump on it like it actually means something like it's the next big thing.  it's a lousy catchphrase, just retire it already. it's so cringeworthy it's comical. that catchphrase QB in Kc really stunk up the joint in the SB didn't he? I don't remember Montana, Rice, LT stinking it up in a SB.just sayin..

is positive regression an actual thing, anyways? I mean, you've regressed right? is that a positive thing?

Zeke, like many other players, was affected by covid. affected by the umbrella that hung over the nfl all season - one that was a giant rumor that the season would be cancelled. so why would some people go all out in a lost season? other parts of his demise included Daks injury, the new coaching staff not really hellbent on running the ball, etc. you wanna say McCarthy killed Zeke to stat monster? ok I'll agree. but he didn't lose talent.

I do not think one bit of his 'down' performance was due to physical regression, age, etc.

sometimes players see the writing on the wall and just play to not get hurt, instead of playing to help their teams win games.

there's no sense in going all out when you're destined to be a losing team 

in 2020 Zeke had the lowest att/gm of his career. clearly that had a lot to do with his insignificant campaign.  he needs work to get stats, give him 20 carries/gm he's feasting.give him 16, he's barely breaking a sweat. it's like he's a visitor on his own tea,.

he HAD the regression last season, now he seems, by your post, to be a buy low candidate. If that's your opinion, I agree. I think he returns to prominence this season. 
Dallas lost Dak... Zeke had high mileage and knows they weren't winning. Covid, fresh $, down season... id fall back too. 

Shape up for this year, which looks like what he's done.

 
I see Zeke having a comeback player of the year caliber season. Stars are aligned... still in his prime, past covid, getting his QB and OL back, possible scheme tweak of being more conservative playcall to compensate for Dak's injury and not allow him to be as aggressive outside of the pocket. I think they need more play-action this year, use Zeke as the foundation to take the hero ball mentality out of Dak's hands. 

 
I didn't think he looked washed up, I thought he looked like he was half assing it.
^^ this.

he's nothing but pure value in 2021 I cannot believe ppl are saying he's a 2nd or 3rd. he's a legit top 2-3 RB. how many other players half-arsed it last season? 50% of the NFL? 80%? blame covid, dont' blame the player

 
Speaking Friday, HC Mike McCarthy indicated the Cowboys would keep the playoffs in mind when deploying Ezekiel Elliott this season.

Dallas appears to be happy with its running back depth, with McCarthy stating, "we've got some younger guys who can play and produce, so it's not necessary for Zeke to run the ball 25-30 times a game. When you get to December, January football, you want him to be in top form to be able to run the ball 25-30 times if needed." The Cowboys relied heavily on Elliott to begin 2020, feeding him an outrageous 88% of snaps. For the remainder of the season, Elliott managed just 64% of snaps, at times battling through injuries. Elliott can still deliver a strong fantasy season non-every down role, provided he still has a lock on goal line duties in what should be a prolific Cowboys offense. Fantasy managers will also be hoping that Elliott can maintain the vast majority of passing down snaps, which would go a long way in preserving his career high 6.6 targets per game with Dak Prescott under center last season.

10.1.3

RELATED: 

Tony Pollard

, Rico Dowdle

SOURCE: NFL.com

Jul 30, 2021, 11:58 AM ET

 
Friday TC coachspeak

read a tweet that McCarthy coached teams have average 21.78 RB attempts /G over his 14 years as a HC

granted that’s not especially relevant to the 2021 Cowboys but Smith’s high game last year was 22

think we already knew 25-30 was never on the table

 
Zeke is comically low on draft boards he's going to finish as a top 2-3 RB. forget last season, he quit like many NFL players did.

 
How low is he going?   He does have some miles and risk at this point.   


Not dropping that far but seeing a lot of hesitation to draft him (or Barkley) after the top 4 are gone. Hmmm, lemme see what my team looks like taking Lelce or Adams. Sure; I convince myself Taylor/Chubb is the RB 5/6 in PPR.  

Mock results are not the same thing as real drafts, I don’t think there’s any way Elliott gets past the 6th pick in most redraft leagues.

 
Pollard is going to get a bunch of work this year, and Zeke hasn't ever been really efficient with his workload. Just something to think about. 

 
Not dropping that far but seeing a lot of hesitation to draft him (or Barkley) after the top 4 are gone. Hmmm, lemme see what my team looks like taking Lelce or Adams. Sure; I convince myself Taylor/Chubb is the RB 5/6 in PPR.  

Mock results are not the same thing as real drafts, I don’t think there’s any way Elliott gets past the 6th pick in most redraft leagues.


So who is the top FOUR? After Cmac, Kamara and Cook, I would not be sure where to go next. Adams, Henry, Kelce? 

 
So who is the top FOUR? After Cmac, Kamara and Cook, I would not be sure where to go next. Adams, Henry, Kelce? 
you're quoting a 4 week old post

I *think* I meant CMC, Cook, Kamara, Henry

seems like a lot of folks have Zeke & Chubb rounding out the Too 6

i have 1.07 tomorrow & still not sure who I’ll be taking (or if league goes chalk 1-6)

 
1st half:

5 touches for 15 yards.

Disappointing.
To be fair, this is likely his toughest matchup all season. A defense with an elite DT(Vea) and another who is still great in stretches(Suh) and 2 LB's who run like CB's(David, White)

 
To be fair, this is likely his toughest matchup all season. A defense with an elite DT(Vea) and another who is still great in stretches(Suh) and 2 LB's who run like CB's(David, White)
Not only a very tough run D, but also not a good game flow for lots of runs. We could see a little more of him this half.

 

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