RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC (4 Viewers)

[humpback]

Any updates on JK Dobbins? I love the player, but that leg scares me still. Need to see him in action where he runs looking like it is fully healed

Re-injury is a concern I guess but he was definitely "back" after the clean up last year, finished the season looking good as new.

The contract squabble, on the other hand...

 

[dipandglide]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

 

[King of the Jungle]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

 

[Chaka]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

 

[Chaka]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

 

[humpback]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

He definitely had a few runs where he got caught from behind and/or slowed up, but it seems that was probably due to being out and needing to get back into top shape. He was able to get up to top speed quickly, just couldn't maintain it as long.

Agreed that this seems to be all about his contract, and agreed that it's a bit strange considering he has pretty much zero leverage, but seems all the kids are doing it these days.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

Article on the questioned subject

 

[Chaka]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

Article on the questioned subject

Thanks.

So he got caught by 3 time All Pro (including last year) Minkah Fitzpatrick (1:55) and by Ronnie Harrison on this run (8:30 mark)

He definitely had the room on the run against Pittsburgh but, again 3 time All Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the run against Cleveland was never going to be anything more than what it was no matter how fast the RB. He was surrounded by three or four defenders for the entire play.

I think high end speed is an overrated quality for a RB. Getting a truly open field play where your speed can take it to the house is rare.

The positives surrounding his performance last year far outweigh any concerns that he may run a 4.49 instead of a 4.44.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

Article on the questioned subject

Thanks.

So he got caught by 3 time All Pro (including last year) Minkah Fitzpatrick (1:55) and by Ronnie Harrison on this run (8:30 mark)

He definitely had the room on the run against Pittsburgh but, again 3 time All Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the run against Cleveland was never going to be anything more than what it was no matter how fast the RB. He was surrounded by three or four defenders for the entire play.

I think high end speed is an overrated quality for a RB. Getting a truly open field play where your speed can take it to the house is rare.

The positives surrounding his performance last year far outweigh any concerns that he may run a 4.49 instead of a 4.44.

I agree top end speed is overrated, especially for RBs. The only point I was making is I wonder if there was something that never fully recovered and he is concerned about the knee still to some degree. Look, I am invested in the guy and have been patiently waiting for him to have ”that year” I think he is capable of. I just find the ”hold-in” odd for his situation so am open to the idea of there possibly being more to it that we are not aware of. Probably not…and I hope not…but not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Chaka]

I haven't followed this situation closely. Is he holding out due to an injury or his contract?

I think publicly it sounds like contract but one has to wonder if he is actually back to his old self or if there are lingering effects.

I don't wonder that at all. The way he closed out last year and having no setbacks this off-season, that I am aware of make this seem like a textbook hold-in.

As Marshawn would say, he's there so he won't get fine.

The only hesitation I have with that is he still did not have his second gear back at the end of next year. Not a huge deal, but it was clear he was not full throttle. It is rare for a running back who has missed as much time as he has to be demanding a new contract without at least one season where he was able to show he could “carry the load.” It just seems a little odd to me, obviously I may be in the minority.

I am not sure how you draw the conclusion about his "second gear". I don't know enough about him as a college player other than it is easy to look great playing for OSU. He didn't run at the combine, was he considered a burner coming out?

FWIW his 44 yarder against Pittsburgh was the 2nd longest of his career and his 37 yarder the following week against Cleveland was 3rd.

What I loved about him down the stretch last year was how few zero or negative yardage rushes he had. He was very consistently hitting 4, 5, 6 yard carries with some longer gains thrown in.

Dude looked good by every measure IMO.

I'm not buying any injury news about him ATM and it sounds like Coach Harbaugh isn't either. This is a hold-in IMHO.

Article on the questioned subject

Thanks.

So he got caught by 3 time All Pro (including last year) Minkah Fitzpatrick (1:55) and by Ronnie Harrison on this run (8:30 mark)

He definitely had the room on the run against Pittsburgh but, again 3 time All Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the run against Cleveland was never going to be anything more than what it was no matter how fast the RB. He was surrounded by three or four defenders for the entire play.

I think high end speed is an overrated quality for a RB. Getting a truly open field play where your speed can take it to the house is rare.

The positives surrounding his performance last year far outweigh any concerns that he may run a 4.49 instead of a 4.44.

I agree top end speed is overrated, especially for RBs. The only point I was making is I wonder if there was something that never fully recovered and he is concerned about the knee still to some degree. Look, I am invested in the guy and have been patiently waiting for him to have ”that year” I think he is capable of. I just find the ”hold-in” odd for his situation so am open to the idea of there possibly being more to it that we are not aware of. Probably not…and I hope not…but not out of the realm of possibility.

Yeah, the on again, off again nature of last season sucked but there wasn't anything in his performance at the end that gave me any cause for concern.

I haven't followed him closely this off season, has there been anything about his knee? I thought he was alleging a back issue in camp.

"Back" is a classic for faking injuries because you can't objectively disprove it. I understand thinking he's not deserving of a new contract but he's playing 2023 at $1.39 mil, that's low even with his injury.

I don't know what he is looking for but there has to be some kind of package that would allow him some security, in 2023 at the very least, without breaking the bank.

 

[HW_53]

I'd bet that his absence has more to do with a contract negotiation than any type of physical ailment at this point. However, saying that there wasn't anything in his performance at the end of last year that gave cause for concern I may have to disagree with. He is still an electric back and showed it several times, but, it sure appeared as though he was significantly hobbled on his most of his breakaway runs. And, hobbled in a way I can't remember seeing any 'healthy' back move like in recent memory. I root for this kid, and hope he is fully recovered because he is /was an elite talent at the position.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

It's a "hold-in", folks. Dobbins has no leverage, though. He's the most talented RB Baltimore has had since Ray Rice, but the team has shown over & over they can win with castoffs, Aside from Hoodie, Harbaugh is the best liar in the league and even he can't make this sound like something else.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's a "hold-in", folks. Dobbins has no leverage, though. He's the most talented RB Baltimore has had since Ray Rice, but the team has shown over & over they can win with castoffs, Aside from Hoodie, Harbaugh is the best liar in the league and even he can't make this sound like something else.

How does a guy coming off of last season (after missing the season before) think he has any leverage at all is what I want to know?

This hold in seems so ill advised for a guy that really needs to prove his worth on the field.

 

[pinkstapler]

It's a "hold-in", folks. Dobbins has no leverage, though. He's the most talented RB Baltimore has had since Ray Rice, but the team has shown over & over they can win with castoffs, Aside from Hoodie, Harbaugh is the best liar in the league and even he can't make this sound like something else.

How does a guy coming off of last season (after missing the season before) think he has any leverage at all is what I want to know?

This hold in seems so ill advised for a guy that really needs to prove his worth on the field.

While I get this side of the argument, I think Matt Waldman recently expressed rather well the other side. Which is that outside the fantasy football world, anyone with eyes would see that Dobbins is elite/top tier/(whatever nice word you want to use that we don't have to argue semantics about lol); at the position and would consider him a top RB in the league. FF players get hung up on his scoring in the fake games, or that they drafted him and have gotten burned by injuries, or drafted him as a rookie and have had to wait for his final breakout. But when he's been healthy and on the field, he's performing like a top back. Really doesn't have anything to prove on that front. Even the "well he needs to prove he can stay healthy" is questionable IMO. He had one injury, a major one that was pretty much as bad as it can get for a knee injury tearing his ACL, LCL, meniscus and hamstring. It obviously and understandably had a long recovery time and then he needed another cleanup procedure performed for that one injury that prolonged it more. And when he made it back, aside from his breakaway speed (IMO a conditioning issue) he looked fully recovered and still able to play at the high level he showed in college and his rookie year. This was much to the chagrin of people posting the disgusting pictures of his knee and the horns growing out of it post surgery saying he would never be the same again.

I'd agree the hold in doesn't do much of anything for him. We all see the state of the RB market, and it is what it is at this point. But I'd disagree he really has anything to prove at this point. Sure he doesn't have any leverage, neither do Barkley or Jacobs or any RB. But that has much more, if not all, to do with the market. Not the fact he suffered one catastrophic knee injury and rightfully had to recover from it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

FF players get hung up on his scoring in the fake games

No, I'm actually talking about being on an NFL field. Someone that missed a full season in 2021, and came back and looked (albeit understandably) not so good in 2022 - needs to prove it on the field before anyone will pay him in this market - I'm not questioning his ability at all.

 

[JoeJoe88]

FF players get hung up on his scoring in the fake games

No, I'm actually talking about being on an NFL field. Someone that missed a full season in 2021, and came back and looked (albeit understandably) not so good in 2022 - needs to prove it on the field before anyone will pay him in this market - I'm not questioning his ability at all.

This.

So he’s essentially missed over half of the possible games he could have played in so far in his 3 year NFL career and he’s making contract demands? I don’t care how good you hypothetically are, I’m going to tell you to kick rocks.

 

[pinkstapler]

FF players get hung up on his scoring in the fake games

No, I'm actually talking about being on an NFL field. Someone that missed a full season in 2021, and came back and looked (albeit understandably) not so good in 2022 - needs to prove it on the field before anyone will pay him in this market - I'm not questioning his ability at all.

Gotcha, then we just differ on opinion which is totally understandable. I thought he looked excellent once he was back at the end of season. Stats are fallible, but think he was close to averaging 7 ypr in those last 4 games. It was enough for me to keep drafting him in redraft at his current value haha. To be fair that also has to do with my belief in the offensive line being one of the best in the league too.

 

[rockaction]

it sure appeared as though he was significantly hobbled on his most of his breakaway runs. And, hobbled in a way I can't remember seeing any 'healthy' back move like in recent memory. I root for this kid, and hope he is fully recovered because he is /was an elite talent at the position.

I must have watched different highlights than everybody else, because I saw a guy with no breakaway speed anymore, and I'm not chalking that up to conditioning. Breakaway speed isn't everything, but Dobbins didn't even come close to having it last year. The Pittsburgh game is the one I'm thinking of. When he broke that run and it should have been easily housed but they caught him, and he looked awful doing it.

 

[Todem]

It's a "hold-in", folks. Dobbins has no leverage, though. He's the most talented RB Baltimore has had since Ray Rice, but the team has shown over & over they can win with castoffs, Aside from Hoodie, Harbaugh is the best liar in the league and even he can't make this sound like something else.

How does a guy coming off of last season (after missing the season before) think he has any leverage at all is what I want to know?

This hold in seems so ill advised for a guy that really needs to prove his worth on the field.

Horrendous advice (if he is being given any).

This guy has zero leverage.

 

[Chaka]

it sure appeared as though he was significantly hobbled on his most of his breakaway runs. And, hobbled in a way I can't remember seeing any 'healthy' back move like in recent memory. I root for this kid, and hope he is fully recovered because he is /was an elite talent at the position.

I must have watched different highlights than everybody else, because I saw a guy with no breakaway speed anymore, and I'm not chalking that up to conditioning. Breakaway speed isn't everything, but Dobbins didn't even come close to having it last year. The Pittsburgh game is the one I'm thinking of. When he broke that run and it should have been easily housed but they caught him, and he looked awful doing it.

If he had a marginally better high end speed he may have scored in that play. He also got run down by three time All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. No shame in that.

That run was the second longest of his career and he followed it up with his 3rd longest run the following week.

The high end speed argument seems inconsequential when a guy is consistently gashing defenses for 4, 5, 6+ yards and seldom getting stopped for a loss.

High end speed is highly overrated in RBs.

 

[Chaka]

Dobbins didn't run at the combine, did he have a rep as a burner in college?

 

[Chaka]

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

 

[Chaka]

As far as his injury is concerned he had a single catastrophic event and it took longer than we all would like for him to return to form. Not everyone can be ADP (coughROIDScough) or Jamaal Charles.

It's not like Dobbins has been an Elijah Mitchell with his health. By all appearances he hasn't had a setback with his knee this off-season.

 

[humpback]

If he had a marginally better high end speed he may have scored in that play. He also got run down by three time All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. No shame in that.

That run was the second longest of his career and he followed it up with his 3rd longest run the following week.

The high end speed argument seems inconsequential when a guy is consistently gashing defenses for 4, 5, 6+ yards and seldom getting stopped for a loss.

High end speed is highly overrated in RBs.

Both can be true. He clearly did not have his top end speed/stamina back (he's said as much), but he also clearly doesn't need it in order to be able to put up good numbers.

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

I think you can follow your own advice from your first sentence here- we don't know that the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023. He's averaged 11 touches per game with a career high of 17 and the Ravens don't really utilize a feature back.

You could also argue that he's made ~$4.5mil over the last 3 years for not a heck of a lot of production so it sort of balances out. I agree that it's likely that he'd be underpaid this season by quite a bit, but in this market with his track record he has zero leverage. Get out there, perform up to expectations, and he'll get a big raise next offseason one way or another.

 

[Chaka]

I think you can follow your own advice from your first sentence here- we don't know that the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023. He's averaged 11 touches per game with a career high of 17 and the Ravens don't really utilize a feature back.

You're right that I cannot be certain Dobbins is scheduled to be the feature back.

Is there any groupthink that Dobbins isn't going to be the lead back in Baltimore?

I am speculating based on the fact that Dobbins was +31 carries/targets over Edwards in the 5 games they played together at the end of last year. Dobbins was held out of week 18 against the Bengals when the Ravens rested most of their starters. Is anyone not comfortable calling Dobbins the starter for the Ravens?

He averaged 16.6 opportunities over his last 5 games as the starter, it's fair to suggest he is in line for anywhere between 220-280 opportunities this year (injury caveat yadda yadda yadda).

I am not sure I agree that Dobbins has done "not much" for the Ravens. Do the Ravens make the playoffs last year without Dobbins? I can't know it for a fact but I know it's true that he absolutely carried them after Lamar went down. And it's not like defenses were keying on the passing game.

Huntley averaged 132 yards per game passing with 2 TD and 3 INT with 27 rush yards/game and 1 TD in six games to close the season last year. To be fair he did have a pretty good game in the playoffs against the Bengals.

I am not suggesting the Ravens break the bank for the guy but can they seriously not get the guy a couple incentives and a few more guaranteed dollars for the 2023 season?

 

[HW_53]

I don't disagree with either take being given here, and the concern I had in watching him last year wasn't necessarily the top-end speed - it was more about his gait in general. Dobbins just looked like he was legit struggling to get down the field at times. For his sake, I hope that it was just a temporary, 'hitch-in -his giddy', and he is back to full health moving forward.

 

[travdogg]

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

Another way of looking at it, is Dobbins has 1400 career yards from scrimmage in 3 years. That sure doesn't sound like someone that would be a priority to give a new contract to me. His YPC is very goosed by the offense and Lamar. I think it'd be fair to subtract a full yard per carry to get a more accurate representation. I mean Gus Edwards has 4 seasons, and has been over 5 YPC in all of them, and nobody is arguing he's anything special. Justice Hill in limited work, has been over 5 YPC his last 2 seasons. The only RB they gave work to under 5 YPC last year was Kenyan Drake and he's out of the league right now.

Dobbins is talented, and he's been efficient with his small workload, but nothing about his work to date suggests he should be extended, or deserves more money, especially in a market where the guy who won the rushing title last year, and did more in 2022 than Dobbins has in his career, can't get one.

Honestly, if I'm the Ravens, this is the easiest bluff in the world to call. Gus/Gordon/Hill would probably be over 5 YPC collectively and focus on signing more important players.

 

[Chaka]

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

Another way of looking at it, is Dobbins has 1400 career yards from scrimmage in 3 years. That sure doesn't sound like someone that would be a priority to give a new contract to me. His YPC is very goosed by the offense and Lamar. I think it'd be fair to subtract a full yard per carry to get a more accurate representation. I mean Gus Edwards has 4 seasons, and has been over 5 YPC in all of them, and nobody is arguing he's anything special. Justice Hill in limited work, has been over 5 YPC his last 2 seasons. The only RB they gave work to under 5 YPC last year was Kenyan Drake and he's out of the league right now.

Dobbins is talented, and he's been efficient with his small workload, but nothing about his work to date suggests he should be extended, or deserves more money, especially in a market where the guy who won the rushing title last year, and did more in 2022 than Dobbins has in his career, can't get one.

Honestly, if I'm the Ravens, this is the easiest bluff in the world to call. Gus/Gordon/Hill would probably be over 5 YPC collectively and focus on signing more important players.

The Ravens RBs seem to do just fine running the ball without Lamar. Dobbins was at 6.6 ypc and Edwards was at 5.5 ypc after Lamar went down.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

Another way of looking at it, is Dobbins has 1400 career yards from scrimmage in 3 years. That sure doesn't sound like someone that would be a priority to give a new contract to me. His YPC is very goosed by the offense and Lamar. I think it'd be fair to subtract a full yard per carry to get a more accurate representation. I mean Gus Edwards has 4 seasons, and has been over 5 YPC in all of them, and nobody is arguing he's anything special. Justice Hill in limited work, has been over 5 YPC his last 2 seasons. The only RB they gave work to under 5 YPC last year was Kenyan Drake and he's out of the league right now.

Dobbins is talented, and he's been efficient with his small workload, but nothing about his work to date suggests he should be extended, or deserves more money, especially in a market where the guy who won the rushing title last year, and did more in 2022 than Dobbins has in his career, can't get one.

Honestly, if I'm the Ravens, this is the easiest bluff in the world to call. Gus/Gordon/Hill would probably be over 5 YPC collectively and focus on signing more important players.

The Ravens RBs seem to do just fine running the ball without Lamar. Dobbins was at 6.6 ypc and Edwards was at 5.5 ypc after Lamar went down.

My take---I believe he is healthy. He has not shown enough to justify the Ravens paying him at this point. He blew out his knee in a preseason game two years ago. He has been with the team for 39 months. He knows the system. He has to have a good year to get any kind of a decent contract. He will be very motivated to have a good year. I think he will start to practice after the second preseason game. That reduces his risk of injury and gives him three weeks to get up to speed for the season. To me, everything that both sides are doing makes sense. His last 8 games of 2020 and his last 5 games of 2022 he received about 11 to 17 touches. He averaged just shy of 15 points per game PPR in those 13 games. That would have been RB 11 last year.

 

[humpback]

I think you can follow your own advice from your first sentence here- we don't know that the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023. He's averaged 11 touches per game with a career high of 17 and the Ravens don't really utilize a feature back.

You're right that I cannot be certain Dobbins is scheduled to be the feature back.

Is there any groupthink that Dobbins isn't going to be the lead back in Baltimore?

I am speculating based on the fact that Dobbins was +31 carries/targets over Edwards in the 5 games they played together at the end of last year. Dobbins was held out of week 18 against the Bengals when the Ravens rested most of their starters. Is anyone not comfortable calling Dobbins the starter for the Ravens?

He averaged 16.6 opportunities over his last 5 games as the starter, it's fair to suggest he is in line for anywhere between 220-280 opportunities this year (injury caveat yadda yadda yadda).

I am not sure I agree that Dobbins has done "not much" for the Ravens. Do the Ravens make the playoffs last year without Dobbins? I can't know it for a fact but I know it's true that he absolutely carried them after Lamar went down. And it's not like defenses were keying on the passing game.

Huntley averaged 132 yards per game passing with 2 TD and 3 INT with 27 rush yards/game and 1 TD in six games to close the season last year. To be fair he did have a pretty good game in the playoffs against the Bengals.

I am not suggesting the Ravens break the bank for the guy but can they seriously not get the guy a couple incentives and a few more guaranteed dollars for the 2023 season?

Not sure what groupthink is and more importantly not sure it matters. Dobbins has never been a "feature" back in the NFL and it's a brand new offense. It's certainly possible, but my point was it's far from a certainty that he'd be a bell cow. One thing's for certain, they aren't going to pay him like one when he's never done it and he's already under contract.

Yes, I actually think it's pretty likely that the Ravens make the playoffs last year without Dobbins. They went 2-2 with him not doing much of anything to start the year (lost the only decent game he had) and then 2-2 after he returned and played well. When you go 4-4 with him and 6-3 without him (including 1 L where they sat everyone) it's hard to argue that he was such a vital part of their success. And really, that's the whole point- outside of a rare few, RBs just don't move the needle much in terms of W/L.

I'm sure they could give him a few more dollars but I'm also sure they aren't obligated to. I've said before that I think incentives is the way to solve this RB pay "problem" but I really doubt that most RBs would go for that. They want guaranteed money, but the problem is their side of the bargain is less guaranteed than most other positions.

I think it is important that we all take a step back and acknowledge that we don't know what we don't know.

Most of us believe he is holding-in but even if he is, and maybe he isn't, we have no idea what he is asking for.

He is scheduled to make $1.39 mil for 2023. Injury or not that is a low base salary. Especially considering, by all appearances the Ravens are planning to use him as their feature back in 2023.

It's a low salary for a guy who averages 6 yards/carry on 200+ carries. He averaged 6 ypc before his injury and 5.9 ypc after his injury.

It's special teams money for a guy who is supposed to be a featured starter on an NFL team.

Another way of looking at it, is Dobbins has 1400 career yards from scrimmage in 3 years. That sure doesn't sound like someone that would be a priority to give a new contract to me. His YPC is very goosed by the offense and Lamar. I think it'd be fair to subtract a full yard per carry to get a more accurate representation. I mean Gus Edwards has 4 seasons, and has been over 5 YPC in all of them, and nobody is arguing he's anything special. Justice Hill in limited work, has been over 5 YPC his last 2 seasons. The only RB they gave work to under 5 YPC last year was Kenyan Drake and he's out of the league right now.

Dobbins is talented, and he's been efficient with his small workload, but nothing about his work to date suggests he should be extended, or deserves more money, especially in a market where the guy who won the rushing title last year, and did more in 2022 than Dobbins has in his career, can't get one.

Honestly, if I'm the Ravens, this is the easiest bluff in the world to call. Gus/Gordon/Hill would probably be over 5 YPC collectively and focus on signing more important players.

The Ravens RBs seem to do just fine running the ball without Lamar. Dobbins was at 6.6 ypc and Edwards was at 5.5 ypc after Lamar went down.

Did you miss where he said "the offense"? This is especially rich coming from the guy who keeps arguing that Lamar deserves so much credit for their running game success.

In any event his point remains, he has basically zero leverage (for a few reasons).

 

[Uruk-Hai]

In any event his point remains, he has basically zero leverage

None, which is what I said upthread. I think he's really talented, but he's in a bad market and hasn't been able to stay on the field. He trots out there and hugs Bisciotti every other practice like he's going to outwit a billionaire who came from nothing. As someone who follows the Ravens, it sucks. But Dobbins is playing with no ammo.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In any event his point remains, he has basically zero leverage (for a few reasons).

This applies to all RB's apparently.

 

[Chaka]

Did you miss where he said "the offense"? This is especially rich coming from the guy who keeps arguing that Lamar deserves so much credit for their running game success.

I do believe running QBs have a positive impact on the RB position but I am not sure where you got that I "keep arguing" Lamar deserves so much credit for the Ravens run game success.

Not in the Lamar thread. I think you may have confused me for someone else.

This is all I could find:

The run game doesn't concern me so much, it should be improved but they seemed to milk some production out of a bunch of guys over the past two seasons. I haven't see a breakdown of NFL running games when you remove QB yardage but when you have Lamar, the running game should be credible.

 

[Faust]

Ravens HC John Harbaugh said he expects RB J.K. Dobbins back soon.

Dobbins’ situation has been one of the more perplexing matters of the offseason thus far. “The ball is in J.K’s court,” Harbaugh told reporters Tuesday. The veteran running back voiced displeasure with his contract situation before being placed on the physically unable to perform list and being excused from camp. Harbaugh has always been one to keep player proceedings close to the chest, but this is the second instance where one can infer that Dobbins’ absence is related to more than injury. When, and potentially if, Dobbins returns to the team remains unclear.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Reliability is something employers seek. If he shows up and runs rampant for 8-10 games I bet the Ravens would consider an extension during the season. Sitting out with no leverage makes zero sense unless there is something we are not aware of.

 

[zeeshan2]

[Pat McAfee] “There has been some discussions about a long term deal for JK Dobbins in Baltimore” - Ian Rapoport

 

[Faust]

Ravens activated RB J.K. Dobbins from the active/PUP list.

Dobbins opened camp on the PUP list and has yet to practice with the team, but that could soon change. The veteran running back has reportedly been “holding in” in hopes of getting a new contract from the team, but that’s proven to be an uphill battle given his recent injury history. Dobbins has been one of the most efficient runners when healthy, but he’s appeared in just 23 games since entering the league in 2020. He has high-end RB2 upside in a Ravens offense that projects to be among the league’s best. Dobbins is entering the final year of his rookie deal and will hope a strong 2023 leads to a new contract next offseason.

 

[Faust]

Ravens HC John Harbaugh said J.K. Dobbins is “100 percent healthy.”

Dobbins was activated from the active/PUP list and returned to practice the same day. The veteran running back now enters a contract year with the team after supposedly “holding in” during the first few weeks of camp in hopes of a new deal but had little leverage to get a deal done. Dobbins rushed for 92-520-2 last season and has averaged 5.9 YPC for his career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his ADP rise after weeks of a discount directly related to his circumstances. He has high-end RB2 upside playing in one of the league’s best offenses.

 

[DeaLerZ]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

 

[kface]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

 

[pinkstapler]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

He's one of the few "deadzone" rbs I'll be targeting this season. Currently RB22 and going throughout the 5th round. I'd figure he'll be moving up a bit, I'd have him closer to RB16 and feel very comfortable taking him anywhere in the 4th round (edit: if you're passing on RB early). I'd have him around Pierce and Gibbs; ahead of the Walker/Mattison/Sanders group.

He's leaps and bounds better than any other RB on that roster, and I think the snap count will reflect that by seasons end if he stays healthy. Sure he will be limited compared to the top RBs from playing with Lamar who caps his upside a bit, but I believe his talent is that of a top 10 back. And even though I think his receptions will be capped a bit, I don't think the RZ touches will be as bad. Lamar's rushing totals in general have dropped off a bit the past two seasons, especially his RZ rushes. Dobbins may lose a few there, but I don't think Lamar will be running in 7-8 a season anymore.

 

[kface]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

He's one of the few "deadzone" rbs I'll be targeting this season. Currently RB22 and going throughout the 5th round. I'd figure he'll be moving up a bit, I'd have him closer to RB16 and feel very comfortable taking him anywhere in the 4th round (edit: if you're passing on RB early). I'd have him around Pierce and Gibbs; ahead of the Walker/Mattison/Sanders group.

He's leaps and bounds better than any other RB on that roster, and I think the snap count will reflect that by seasons end if he stays healthy. Sure he will be limited compared to the top RBs from playing with Lamar who caps his upside a bit, but I believe his talent is that of a top 10 back. And even though I think his receptions will be capped a bit, I don't think the RZ touches will be as bad. Lamar's rushing totals in general have dropped off a bit the past two seasons, especially his RZ rushes. Dobbins may lose a few there, but I don't think Lamar will be running in 7-8 a season anymore.

I ended up with Allen at QB, Jefferson, Kupp, Mike Williams at WR. RBS are question marks Javonte Williams, JK, Pierce

 

[pinkstapler]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

He's one of the few "deadzone" rbs I'll be targeting this season. Currently RB22 and going throughout the 5th round. I'd figure he'll be moving up a bit, I'd have him closer to RB16 and feel very comfortable taking him anywhere in the 4th round (edit: if you're passing on RB early). I'd have him around Pierce and Gibbs; ahead of the Walker/Mattison/Sanders group.

He's leaps and bounds better than any other RB on that roster, and I think the snap count will reflect that by seasons end if he stays healthy. Sure he will be limited compared to the top RBs from playing with Lamar who caps his upside a bit, but I believe his talent is that of a top 10 back. And even though I think his receptions will be capped a bit, I don't think the RZ touches will be as bad. Lamar's rushing totals in general have dropped off a bit the past two seasons, especially his RZ rushes. Dobbins may lose a few there, but I don't think Lamar will be running in 7-8 a season anymore.

I ended up with Allen at QB, Jefferson, Kupp, Mike Williams at WR. RBS are question marks Javonte Williams, JK, Pierce

I think that's a very very solid trio at RB for waiting on the position. Pierce will be high floor, I think Dobbins will be as well now that the hold out noise is done, and all reports on Williams are that he's back to speed. I never loved him coming out to the degree others did, but he is currently a great value ADP wise if he's healthy. I think that offense is going to struggle in general, despite the knocks on Russ, the o-line has been doing him no favors. Javonte showed he can catch well enough his rookie year, so if he's on the field I could see a ton of dump offs as the line collapses.

Wondering how you managed to get both Jefferson and Kupp? Could feasibly be WR1 and 2. Paired with Allen, and those three players more than makeup for some of the point differential lost on waiting on RB IMO.

 

[kface]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

He's one of the few "deadzone" rbs I'll be targeting this season. Currently RB22 and going throughout the 5th round. I'd figure he'll be moving up a bit, I'd have him closer to RB16 and feel very comfortable taking him anywhere in the 4th round (edit: if you're passing on RB early). I'd have him around Pierce and Gibbs; ahead of the Walker/Mattison/Sanders group.

He's leaps and bounds better than any other RB on that roster, and I think the snap count will reflect that by seasons end if he stays healthy. Sure he will be limited compared to the top RBs from playing with Lamar who caps his upside a bit, but I believe his talent is that of a top 10 back. And even though I think his receptions will be capped a bit, I don't think the RZ touches will be as bad. Lamar's rushing totals in general have dropped off a bit the past two seasons, especially his RZ rushes. Dobbins may lose a few there, but I don't think Lamar will be running in 7-8 a season anymore.

I ended up with Allen at QB, Jefferson, Kupp, Mike Williams at WR. RBS are question marks Javonte Williams, JK, Pierce

I think that's a very very solid trio at RB for waiting on the position. Pierce will be high floor, I think Dobbins will be as well now that the hold out noise is done, and all reports on Williams are that he's back to speed. I never loved him coming out to the degree others did, but he is currently a great value ADP wise if he's healthy. I think that offense is going to struggle in general, despite the knocks on Russ, the o-line has been doing him no favors. Javonte showed he can catch well enough his rookie year, so if he's on the field I could see a ton of dump offs as the line collapses.

Wondering how you managed to get both Jefferson and Kupp? Could feasibly be WR1 and 2. Paired with Allen, and those three players more than makeup for some of the point differential lost on waiting on RB IMO.

We have a weird modified keeper league where we are allowed to keep players a 2 rounds earlier than where we drafted them (and then the following year 2 rounds earlier than the previous year). That's how I ended up with allen, Jefferson and kupp. I won last year so I picked 10 as well

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

I went wr/qb to start so Dobbins was the first RB I took in the mid 4th.

I honestly don't know what to make of him. He looked strong to finish the year last year. Maybe gets some more catches this year and the Offense can't be any worse so you would think there is n uptick in opportunity

He's one of the few "deadzone" rbs I'll be targeting this season. Currently RB22 and going throughout the 5th round. I'd figure he'll be moving up a bit, I'd have him closer to RB16 and feel very comfortable taking him anywhere in the 4th round (edit: if you're passing on RB early). I'd have him around Pierce and Gibbs; ahead of the Walker/Mattison/Sanders group.

He's leaps and bounds better than any other RB on that roster, and I think the snap count will reflect that by seasons end if he stays healthy. Sure he will be limited compared to the top RBs from playing with Lamar who caps his upside a bit, but I believe his talent is that of a top 10 back. And even though I think his receptions will be capped a bit, I don't think the RZ touches will be as bad. Lamar's rushing totals in general have dropped off a bit the past two seasons, especially his RZ rushes. Dobbins may lose a few there, but I don't think Lamar will be running in 7-8 a season anymore.

Dobbins didn't get up to speed until after the bye week his rookie year. Early last year his knee wasn't healthy until after he had it scoped. Based on his last 8 games his rookie year and his last 5 games last year, he averaged 13 for 80 rushing, 1 for 10 receiving and 10 total TD's. That is 14 3/4 points PPR per game. I know that is a small sample size, but it is all there is to go on. As for TD production, the last 7 games that Dobbins received double digit carries with Jackson as his QB, he scored 9 TD's and 2 two point conversions. If he can stay healthy, he should come in slightly higher than RB 16. That is still a big if, but if you can draft him any later than RB 22 I think it is worth the risk.

 

[FFCollusion]

I won't own Dobbins, due to his price, but just doing some ranking maintenance and wanted to add the following:

Once Dobbins came back from his injury last year, from week 14,15,16,17, and WC (5 games) he averaged:
14/92/0.2 + 1.4/1/9.2/.2 which is a 17 game pace of:
238/1560/3 + 24/17/156/4 which is 229 fantasy points. (RB12 overall last year)
13.5ppg would be RB17.

And just for good measure...
From weeks 11-DP (8 games) after he broke out in 2020 he averaged:
12/72/1 + 1.25/.875/9/0 which is a 17 game pace of:
204/1232/17 + 21/15/163/0 which is 256 fantasy points. (RB7 overall last year)
15.0ppg would be RB11.

Combine these 13 games together, average them, and project them to 17 games we get...
217/1358/12 + 22/15/160/1 = 246 total fantasy points (RB10) and 14.5ppg (RB14)

You don't have to be a pass catcher to be valuable, although it is definitely easier.
But Lynch, Henry, and Chubb, have been top 10 fantasy RBs for years without needing to be heavily involved in the pass game.
And when you average 6 yards per carry, it takes a lot less volume to accumulate those yards like the previous 3 backs mentioned needed.
Combine that with Dobbin's past TD success (7 of his 8 games as a rookie (in this sample) he had at least 1 TD.

He's currently RB17 on Yahoo and slipping to the 4/5 wrap of 12 team leagues at the moment. Given his injury history I'm a bit surprised he's this expensive, but he clearly has a path to top 10 production, even without pass catching. So if this new offense involves him in that aspect, he could easily pay dividends on his current price. But at the 4/5 wrap I'd much rather just be stacking other positions personally. But for people who are looking for a RB, and who don't think his past injuries would classify him as 'injury prone' then I think you can easily justify drafting him there.

Looks like a clump of... Walker, Sanders, Akers, Pierce, Mattison, Dobbins, and then Conner.
I'd give the upside to Akers, Mattison, and Conner as those 3 have clear paths to 3 down workhorse roles for their teams. Can they stay healthy and be productive all year? Your guess is as good as mine. Walker, Sanders, and Dobbins are more 2 down backs to me. Pierce... man I loved Pierce last year, and I would bet on his talent to my 'eye', but the Singletary signing and that offense as a whole, has the most question marks of this group. I think Carolina is a worse looking team than the Texans though.

 

[Dez]

How high are you drafting Dobbins now that he is practicing and off the PUP list?? What are your expectations?

At the same exact spot I was a week ago or two weeks ago or a month ago he was never going to miss any time there never was an injury and he was never holding out into games.

 

[Biabreakable]

I won't own Dobbins, due to his price, but just doing some ranking maintenance and wanted to add the following:

Once Dobbins came back from his injury last year, from week 14,15,16,17, and WC (5 games) he averaged:
14/92/0.2 + 1.4/1/9.2/.2 which is a 17 game pace of:
238/1560/3 + 24/17/156/4 which is 229 fantasy points. (RB12 overall last year)
13.5ppg would be RB17.

And just for good measure...
From weeks 11-DP (8 games) after he broke out in 2020 he averaged:
12/72/1 + 1.25/.875/9/0 which is a 17 game pace of:
204/1232/17 + 21/15/163/0 which is 256 fantasy points. (RB7 overall last year)
15.0ppg would be RB11.

Combine these 13 games together, average them, and project them to 17 games we get...
217/1358/12 + 22/15/160/1 = 246 total fantasy points (RB10) and 14.5ppg (RB14)

You don't have to be a pass catcher to be valuable, although it is definitely easier.
But Lynch, Henry, and Chubb, have been top 10 fantasy RBs for years without needing to be heavily involved in the pass game.
And when you average 6 yards per carry, it takes a lot less volume to accumulate those yards like the previous 3 backs mentioned needed.
Combine that with Dobbin's past TD success (7 of his 8 games as a rookie (in this sample) he had at least 1 TD.

He's currently RB17 on Yahoo and slipping to the 4/5 wrap of 12 team leagues at the moment. Given his injury history I'm a bit surprised he's this expensive, but he clearly has a path to top 10 production, even without pass catching. So if this new offense involves him in that aspect, he could easily pay dividends on his current price. But at the 4/5 wrap I'd much rather just be stacking other positions personally. But for people who are looking for a RB, and who don't think his past injuries would classify him as 'injury prone' then I think you can easily justify drafting him there.

Looks like a clump of... Walker, Sanders, Akers, Pierce, Mattison, Dobbins, and then Conner.
I'd give the upside to Akers, Mattison, and Conner as those 3 have clear paths to 3 down workhorse roles for their teams. Can they stay healthy and be productive all year? Your guess is as good as mine. Walker, Sanders, and Dobbins are more 2 down backs to me. Pierce... man I loved Pierce last year, and I would bet on his talent to my 'eye', but the Singletary signing and that offense as a whole, has the most question marks of this group. I think Carolina is a worse looking team than the Texans though.

I disagree with some of this but nice post.

 

[bostonfred]

Every year there are 12 rb1s in a 12 team league. Every year people try to project players by comparing their past production to rb12 and declaring them a rb1. Every year there are more than 12 guys who fit that bill, and every year some of those guys get injured.

You should project more than 12 guys to put up top 12 rb numbers. Some of them will get hurt or have other unpredictable issues, but there are more than 12 guys who fit that bill.

Dobbins is one of those guys. This year there's more guys who fit that bill than usual, and it's pushing guys with rb1 talent down the board. That's great news. The upside for Dobbins isn't that different from the upside for Jacobs which isn't that much different than the upside for any of the top rbs outside the elite pass catching and goal line backs.

Get a bunch of them. Dobbins is a good one. There are other good ones. By week 5 if someone offers you Dobbin for Miles Sanders or Akers for Dobbins or Dobbins for Najae or any of these guys for any of these other guys there's a very good chance you'll have changed your mind and throw draft capital out the window.

Stop pretending there's a big difference between these rbs. Just load up on good guys.