Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is the A#1 takeaway here.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dan Campbell hides nothing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Well that is no surprise. Most people in the Gibbs thread are people who believe in Gibbs, most people in the Perine thread are the people who believe in Perine. Like if you posted pro-Michigan thoughts on a Michigan board, you would get a lot of likes. If you posted pro-Michigan thoughts on an OSU board people wouldn't be so receptive. Also in one we are talking about a guy coming back for a catastrophic knee injury. We usually see these players slowly eased back. Gibbs is a round 1 rookie. We usually see these guys earn large roles as the season goes on.
Ok, find me the last RB picked as high as him that got so few snaps and touches the first game of their career.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IMO he was game-scripted out.
If Kelce is in that game, I think Gibbs has a much larger role.
But with KC dropping passes & struggling to get open (again, because no Kelce) the game was close the entire time.
Montgomery-friendly script.
If DET were chasing, I’m betting we would have seen more passing in general from DET, and Gibbs would have been a beneficiary.
But that’s just, like, my opinion, maaaan.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So play the lesser guy because the game is close??
Let's not over think this people. It's game 1 for a rookie.
Yeah, none of actually makes sense to me, lol. Thanks for the input but I just can't get behind that reasoning.
I see no reason to think Gibbs was going to be more involved if they needed to pass more. See the drive at end of half for instance which was obvious passing downs and it was all Monty. It was all Monty on most obvious passing down. Obvously that's for pass protection but if they are going to operate that way when the opposing teams best rusher is out....
I have no doubt his usage will pick up but to me the bottom line is he got a 27% snap share and people are acting like that's the normal usage pattern for high drafted rookie RB's and it's not, it's not even close to debut games for rookies. I literally can't think of a RB drafted remotely that high in the last 10+ years with such a small game one usage so the idea it's "normal" for rookie RB's picked as high as him is bunk to me.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Both coaches are equally candid and both said effectively the same thing.
However, many of the strong reactions from FF owners (either believing or denouncing as "coachspeak") are confirmation bias, plain and simple.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t disagree with this.
Some speculated it was concerns about pass protection. That makes sense.
Trust is earned in the NFL. Maybe that’s the problem here.
Also Karlaftis was consistently in Goff’s face even with Monty pass protecting, so size might also be a factor.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t see Montgomery as “the lesser guy”
He’s certainly the more experienced guy. And the bigger guy.
Those both might be substantial factors to Campbell in how this game played out.
Again just look at Kamara’s rookie year as a reference. Not worried about Gibbs usage in the slightest. Kamara finished as #3 RB that year and Ingram finished as #6. Dan Campbell was on the saints staff from 2016-2020. He has been trying to create something similar with his RBs since 2021
(Half point PPR)
Wk 1 5.8
Wk 2 6.9
Wk 3 11.7
Wk 4 20.6
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 10.2
Wk 7 13.2
Wk 8 15.1
Wk 9 28.2
Wk 10 22.3
Wk 11 22.6
Wk 12 33.8
Wk 13 27.1
Wk 14 4.2
Wk 15 17.9
Wk 16 12.5
Wk 17 21.8
How many high drafted RBs were competing with a newly signed RB getting a 3-year $18M contract? I think Gibbs would've been there at 1.18 in the draft, but the loss and uncertainty with Jameson pushed the Lions to not risk losing a big part-time playmaker which they desperately need - their offense only scored 2 TDs on Thursday.
A. Kamara played a lot more snaps his first game
B. Kamara had a big 10 catch game in like his third or fourth game but was probably on everyone's bench because he was not doing much.
C. He did not really full on break out until they traded Peterson.
I see nothing similar here as it relates to Gibbs.
Chaka
Footballguy
Okay so what's your thesis here? Do you think Gibbs is not as good as advertised and the Lions arg going to limit him to a 27% snap share and 9 touch/game all season?
Personally, when Dan Campbell said a few days before the game that they planned to use Gibbs sparingly early, I took that at face value.
Not sure what to tell ya then. Campbell came from saints and tried to use swift similar to how Kamara was used. David Montgomery is literally the Mark Ingram in their offense
Campbell just said yesterday that Gibbs is going to be a lot more involved going forward…
And Campbell doesn’t lie lol
… 
Dan Campbell promises increased role for RB Jahmyr Gibbs coming
Detroit Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs played in just 19 snaps against the Chiefs. But that was part of the plan, and Gibbs’ role is expected to increase quickly.
www.prideofdetroit.com
Is anyone anywhere actually arguing against this? He looks great, he averaged almost a fantasy point per touch, almost 2 fantasy points per target and if he does not slip likely puts up a low end RB1 kind of day on 27% snaps and 9 touches.
He looked incredible to me and probably anyone who watched him. His role will no doubt increase. No doubt. I'm just not buying some of the excuses people are offering up and how fast and how high of a role his usage increases as it relates to fantasy and his ADP is key. Some of these fantasy seasons are not long, the one's I mainly play have 12 week regular seasons. He's a third round draft pick in those leagues in a year when you can usually get today's version of a bell cow well into the 6th-7th round of drafts. For fantasy I've always been more into volume then efficiency so I've got a lot of concerns right now, despite the obvious upside, that he's worth that kind of price tag. Alternatively, depending on how much his role ticks up over the season, he can be a league winner because he does not need a ton of usage to put up points.
Fantasy speaking he entered the game as my #2 dynasty RB. There he remains. I'm lower on him in redraft however.
Chaka
Footballguy
This is a common, and misused, refrain IMO. Montgomery is not a "lesser guy". He's a good RB who was brought in to replace a beloved, effective RB that the team had the option to retain, for less money. Monty got a top end of the market contract for a reason.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m with you on this, though I still have him 3rd behind Bijan & Hall in dynasty.
Last edited:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Exactly. The more experienced guy got more time in week 1 of a close game.
Kind of answered this in a follow up post.
And yet LaPorta played 83% of the snaps at a position known to have a larger learning curve.Not sure what to tell ya then. Campbell came from saints and tried to use swift similar to how Kamara was used. David Montgomery is literally the Mark Ingram in their offense
Campbell just said yesterday that Gibbs is going to be a lot more involved going forward…
And Campbell doesn’t lie lol
Dan Campbell promises increased role for RB Jahmyr Gibbs coming
Detroit Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs played in just 19 snaps against the Chiefs. But that was part of the plan, and Gibbs’ role is expected to increase quickly.
That's almost verbatim of what he said the day before the game (I posted it here.) There was no reason to expect Gibbs would have a big workload Week 1.
rockaction
Footballguy
When did you
start writing blank verse
Did you haiku, too?
Did you have to rehearse?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Accidents happen
Return button hits itself
Water flows like wine
Also me: “these edibles ain’t sh**!”
rockaction
Footballguy
I was going to post in here that I was actually encouraged by what I saw, but I don't know if that is going to assuage people that thought he would be getting extreme usage out of the gate.
What I would ask is this: If he's primarily a pass catching back, wouldn't it be reasonable that he'd be brought along slowly in the more intricate aspect of the game that the passing game is? I think it would stand to reason.
But I also wanted to say this. In my head -- not in this thread -- I thought the projections of his usage were off and fairly generously. I now see no reason that he can't get the usage that meno was predicting earlier. He looked great out there. Need to get the ball in his hands.
I'd be encouraged by at least what I saw. To wit, I hold Kendre Miller in dynasty and I was not impressed by what I saw from him so far (I know he's hurt). But it's better to look electric and basically demand more touches than look pedestrian and command less.
What I would ask is this: If he's primarily a pass catching back, wouldn't it be reasonable that he'd be brought along slowly in the more intricate aspect of the game that the passing game is? I think it would stand to reason.
But I also wanted to say this. In my head -- not in this thread -- I thought the projections of his usage were off and fairly generously. I now see no reason that he can't get the usage that meno was predicting earlier. He looked great out there. Need to get the ball in his hands.
I'd be encouraged by at least what I saw. To wit, I hold Kendre Miller in dynasty and I was not impressed by what I saw from him so far (I know he's hurt). But it's better to look electric and basically demand more touches than look pedestrian and command less.
I actually own Hall more in dynasty so I hope you are right. A few weeks ago, in a league I have Hall, the Abankanda owner tried trading him to me and I countered by offering him Hall for Gibbs and telling him to keep Abankanda. He declined. I got them as 2 and 3 in dynasty and everyone knows the 1. I just see Gibbs without a surgically repaired knee and a workload that won't wear him down as major plusses in dynasty.
Said somewhere in this thread awhile ago that despite me putting Gibbs in my top 3 for dynasty I was not confident he'd ever have a top 3 fantasy season but I thought because of his age and way he's used he could deliver 6-7 top 10 seasons. If anything I'm a little more confident he can pop off a monster top 3 season in time, but that time is far from upon us.
When did Bijan replace Oates? Those oldies are dropping like flies.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Kamara’s snap counts by game his rookie year:
Week 1: 50%
Week 2: 26%
Week 3: 29%
Week 4: 35%
Week 5: bye
Week 6: 42%
Week 7: 49%
Week 8: 51%
Week 9: 42%
Week 10: 38%
Week 11: 65%
Week 12: 56%
Etc. He has one outlier week after that (12%) but otherwise is in the 50-60 range.
Based on Kamara’s usage in weeks 2-4:
A) not sure why you anchored on week 1 as it was a clear outlier. Note that Kamara accumulated 11 touches for 38 yards in his high usage week 1 performance.
B) pretty clear that Gibbs’s usage in week 1 was similar to Kamara’s in weeks 2-4
C) Kamara got utilized a lot more as the season went on, which is consistent with what Campbell has said about Gibbs.
I still expect Gibbs to have something like 170 carries for 800 yards, 4-5 rushing TDs, along with 50-60 catches for 450-550 yards and 2-4 TDs receiving. Somewhere in here I posted historical usage of “thunder and lightning” for the backfields Campbell has been affiliated with. My projection is about 80% of the historical average for those thunder and lightning backfields — that seems reasonable to me. I don’t expect Gibbs to become the leading rusher on the team as a rookie.
Chaka
Footballguy
So, what's the problem? You seem very focused on his usage in the first game.
Gibbs ADP was inflated on the limited/false premise of draft capital IMO.
RBs drafted this high do, typically, get more usage from the jump. RBs drafted this high also seldom end up on teams with talented (good, solid whatever) 26 year old RBs already on the roster.
The first mistake was assuming Gibbs was going to get more touches than Montgomery on the season. I think a lot of the disparity in their ADPs was built on that mistake. Monty was always more likely to finish the season with more points than Gibbs (I know you appreciate the volume play over the splash play, as do I).
An ADP around RB10 for Gibbs was based on the mistake of seeing draft capital only and, thus, overpriced. Just as an ADP around RB20 was underpriced for Monty as it ignored the high end of the market deal he received. Few people seem to have made the connection between ADP and contract value. Most only focused on the former, thus, RB10.
The problem for drafters like me is if you wanted them both, which I think is a great play, you had to take Gibbs first.
Bottom line for me is people who took Gibbs should have known the job was dangerous when they took it.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
It means absolutely nothing but kinda interesting to look at.
Rookie carries in 1st game:
Jonathan Taylor...9
Gibbs .....,....,.........8
Derrick Henry.......5
Breece Hall...........5
Etienne.................4
Ken Walker .........4
Chubb.......,..........3
Rookie carries in 1st game:
Jonathan Taylor...9
Gibbs .....,....,.........8
Derrick Henry.......5
Breece Hall...........5
Etienne.................4
Ken Walker .........4
Chubb.......,..........3
The post I was responding to was made in response to my comment about his week one usage which seems kind of relevant.
Because they traded Peterson and cleared out a larger role for him. I don't see a Peterson stealing touches and snaps so I fail to see the similarity.
And every single one except Hall needed an injury or trade at the RB position to prevent them from having a disappointing rookie fantasy season.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't think Gibbs is Kamara level talent, but watching Amon-Ra, Marvin Jones, and that other guy at WR, seems pretty clear this team doesn't have tons of electricity at pass catcher. They thought they were adding that with Jameson.
Gibbs is their best chance at 60 yard plays. I think that alone means he's gonna get work. A lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He bounced off so many tackles - so many that it’s clearly not a fluke.
Any one of those could be a home run. The more times he touches the ball, the better the chance of that.
IMO the lions game plan to limit his touches is a little ill advised, considering. The boom games are coming. I’m just glad he didn’t have one the week I faced him in 2 leagues.
massraider
Footballguy
Lions beat Mahomes on the road, I don't question the game plan
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
They traded Peterson because they had Kamara. The Lions don’t have a Peterson because they have Gibbs and thus don’t need a washed up Peterson-type guy. It’s 100% similar. Gibbs plays the Kamara role in this offense. It’s glaringly obvious.
Edit to add: no comment on the week 2-4 usage for Kamara? I mean, week 1 for him was borderline irrelevant to your argument. Look at the weeks 1-4 average, but using just a single data point is lazy analysis at best, a deliberate attempt to mislead for narrative purposes at worst.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Of course it means something. It shows that 1st game usage for highly drafted rookie RBs is predictive of pretty much nothing.
My initial post which spawned all this discussion was in response to someone saying they don't understand how people are surprised his week one role was that low and I'm trying to point out how historically that's not accurate, that it's not normal to be used that sparingly out of the gate. And I'd stress not just the touches, the lack of snaps. So many drives he was not in or used a snap or two.
Many here are posting or referencing Campbells quotes about easing him as a counter to those of us who say we are surprised/worried a little about his week one usage. My guess is if you gave those people truth serum and asked them if they'd bet over/under on Gibbs playing so few snaps they all would have bet the over. But now they say they are surprised we are surprised. Ok.
Other then that like the other stuff I'm saying. His role will of course grow, but how much and how fast relative to his ADP in a 12 week regular season he's already getting benched in week one makes his week one usage extremely relevant to me.
I personally never thought that and yet was comfortable spending third round redraft picks on Gibbs. I did and would by far rather have Gibbs in redraft then Montgomery, still, because he'll catch more passes and can do a lot more with less but never once did I ever think Monty was not going to do most of the rushing and lead in total touches.
Now was a mistake being made about putting Gibbs so high in redraft? That's what ALL of this discussion is about to me and any week one usage is relevant to the data. I did two drafts after the opener and have two more today. I'm still assessing the situation and this is all part of that data. Gibbs is still a third round guy in the format I'm drafting(FFPC), later third then early but a third still. Which surprises me, I thought he'd fall more. I'm trying to examine if I think he's still worth that or is now more like a late 4th or early 5th.
I am absolutely not calling him a fantasy bust or wiling to say right now those people taking him in round 3 are making a mistake. I'm saying that game gave me more worries then I had coming into the game.
Yes but not all touches are equal. I would generally view a reception as 3X more valuable then a rush.
I thought Gibbs situation was very similar to what CMC entered into and pretty much in line with how I antcipated Gibbs would be used this year. Second in carries, leader in receptions among RB's and playing time in the 450-50% range. A 1A/1B situation. I think that will ultimately be the case but CMC started as a 1A/1B where Gibbs did not. And frankly despite the 80 receptions that rookie CMC had for what Gibbs cost in redraft, especially with the plethora of RB's you can get later, he always needed to be a lot better then rookie year CMC from a fantasy angle to justify that cost.
Again a I'd point to what I said earlier. This is all part of me analyzing what Gibbs is worth in my drafts after the game so yes taking his usage from his first real week is some key data to me. Is a player with that low usage still worth that cost? Because to Gibbs credit he was a slip away from posting a low end RB1 day on that low usage which speaks to his massive upside. But will it be consistent, how long will take to get there and is he still worth the draft capital it takes to get him(late third/early 4th) are questions that game left me asking a lot more then I was before.
Yes but you are not really getting the point for why Kamara's role increased over what it was the first few weeks.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Kamara had a 50% snap share week 1 — if you recall the data point that you shared. AP was on the roster that week. Why did Kamara’s role decrease in week 2?
What i'm refuting is that Gibbs usage is anything like how Kamara was brought along.
Because a bunch of you are telling me he's bringing Gibbs along slowly, like Kamara. But how is Kamara almost doubling him up in snaps in week one similar at all?
After that for the next few weeks Kamara's role slid back to something similar to what we just saw with Gibbs and only picked up because they traded Peterson.,
Since Gibbs week one role was nothing like Kamara's, and since there is no AP taking up snaps and touches that will be traded to increase his role I will again say i see zero things that are similar.
And you can miss me with this crap. Done with you.
Chaka
Footballguy
Thanks. I understand a little better now.
I also typically forget to mention that I virtually always speak from a redraft perspective.
And, yes I absolutely would have bet the over on Gibbs' usage on Thursday. But the reality didn't come as a surprise either. The information was out there, we just ignored it.
I think McCaffrey has always been the hope for Gibbs and I think CMC's rookie season is the hope for where most people land on Gibbs' ADP. Personally I think 80 receptions is overly ambitious for any RB and I think Montgomery today>>>James Stewart at 30. But I think McCaffrey's rookie volume is still definitely on the table for Gibbs. He would need an increase from 9 to a little over 12. I don't think that's a big ask.
I play in a SF league so I don't know what 3rd round capital means in most 1QB leagues. I think it is somewhere around RB10-12? Which seems high to me. I would have Monty ranked closer to this than Gibbs. I didn't draft them that way because...value I guess. But empirically that is where the reality always was IMO.
I think Gibbs' value begins closer to RB16-20 and always should have been. But banking on upside almost always rules the day.
massraider
Footballguy
I think so too, and I think people are asking a bit much.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Appreciate the conversation. It will be interesting to revisit Gibbs’ usage at year end.
Apologies for offending you. But I don’t apologize for thinking you cherry-picked week 1 stats.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I think many people (rightfully so) value players not based on early season role/production, but what they project will be the case late season when the chips get fully stacked and pushed in.
I also think it's way premature to assume anything about Gibbs' role this season after just one sample. And yet we argue around a bunch of new assumptions from that one game, even though a ton of preseason assumptions were just proven wrong.
For me, little of Thursday's dynamic between these two was surprising. Based on Monty's contract, ability, and camp/preseason talk, I 100% expected a thunder and lightning RBBC, dictated mostly by game script, unless/until either back gets hurt. This was a Monty game script. There will be Gibbs scripts coming. And games where they both are fed fairly evenly. Time will tell more.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'll go out on a limb and say Gibbs gets his first of many double digit touch games vs Seattle.
(HULK)
(Smash)
I don't understand the bickering in this thread. Look, here is the situation:
-kid proved his talent
-Coach says kid will get more work moving forward
-Montgomery is going to eat a lot of carries as long as he's healthy
Those are the facts. The range of outcomes are solid RB2 with a week to week game script driven variance factor (assuming coach gets him up to ~15 touches a game within the next few weeks) to low end RB1. He will not be elite as long as Montgomery is playing. A Montgomery injury could make him elite. If Montgomery stays healthy, it'll come down to how efficient Gibbs is. And based on what we saw Thursday, there is good cause to believe he'll be pretty darn efficient.
My guess is, if Montgomery stays healthy, Gibbs finishes around RB12 +/- 3 spots. That's great for where he was drafted IMO.
-kid proved his talent
-Coach says kid will get more work moving forward
-Montgomery is going to eat a lot of carries as long as he's healthy
Those are the facts. The range of outcomes are solid RB2 with a week to week game script driven variance factor (assuming coach gets him up to ~15 touches a game within the next few weeks) to low end RB1. He will not be elite as long as Montgomery is playing. A Montgomery injury could make him elite. If Montgomery stays healthy, it'll come down to how efficient Gibbs is. And based on what we saw Thursday, there is good cause to believe he'll be pretty darn efficient.
My guess is, if Montgomery stays healthy, Gibbs finishes around RB12 +/- 3 spots. That's great for where he was drafted IMO.
markrc99
Footballguy
As noted above, in hindsight best to have considered that Gibbs would be eased in until fully acclimated. That one play where no one posed an immediate threat, yet he tried to twitch himself wide & pretty much lost all momentum. Perhaps 3 or 4 weeks from now he sees or manages that same situation a bit better? In longer formats it's not if but when. Consider your investment, consider what Bijan Robinson owners might be contemplating right now? lol
massraider
Footballguy
And he's a rookie.
If you don't NEED to put your QB in harm's way by giving Gibbs a 70% snap share, then you don't have to risk rookie mistakes.
if the Lions had been down by 5 with two minutes left in the game last Thursday, Gibbs would have been in the game. I don't think that's much of a hot take. And that's the RB I want.
Trust of veteran players---you see this on every team, every year.
Last edited:
LawFitz
Footballguy
Agreed. Part of the equation will be the improvement/effectiveness of the Lions D. They are much more Monty's friend than Gibbs.
