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enjoy!!!
Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. I just want to know if he has next level explosiveness, or speed, or quicks or whatever it takes to translate, and I think that very often can be intangible-- something you see but cannot quantify. I think Davis translates and will be starting (or seeing significant RBBC use) in an NFL offense very soon. I am almost positive of it. I am cautious not to go south much on the top draft eligible backs this year. Like this years rookie WRs, most of them are terrific prospects with very few flaws. I thought Davis did a great job "getting small" in traffic against FSU, and the TD run against ULM was a picture perfect example of a back running low and exploding through the defense. You and Nowak both think he runs too high. I don't see it. I think that is becoming a canned criticism of any back taller than 5-9 who doesn't lean forward like LenDale White. It just isn't necessary. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson... they all run too high. Meh, it's a non issue. Davis is an interesting prospect, because nothing jumps out at you. He is not blazing fast, but he sure has finished a ton of very long runs in his short career. Davis is not extremely powerful but he sure does run through a ton of tackles. Davis isn't exceptionally quick, but man does he make a ton of good defenders miss. He has nice hands and he is a tough blocker. I think his secret is excellent vision, a strong combination of being very good at everything if not great at anything, with excellent instincts to know when to pile drive and when to jitterbug. Nice back.Can't wait for the season finale on Choice.
Thanks CC. I agree that sometimes by looking at the running technique, you miss the big picture. It's the trees and forest thing. And I tend to be more negative than maybe I should in these because I don't think it's helpful to just string together a bunch of "great move" and "nice run" statements. The run too high criticism may be a little bit over done but it did seem like he was opening himself up to harder hits by not ducking down more as he ran. At the college level that may not matter, but in the NFL I think it comes into play more. On the one time he lost the ball, although he was ruled down, he got hit from behind and fell into another defender. I think he may have felt less force from that hit had he been crouched down more. Probably just nit-picking, but I'm glad to see Nowak agrees with me. I do agree with you that he looks very good when you watch him and I thought that a McAllister compare is a pretty good one. I just think he could end up being a guy who isn't explosive or quick enough, especially laterally, to be more than a decent backup. I think there's a style of college running back that will be good in any offensive system you put him in when he gets to the NFL. Guys like Peterson, Lynch and I think Jackson this season. Then there are other guys that need to be in a system that takes better advantage of their strengths. I would put Davis in that category. Choice will be all world, baby!Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. I just want to know if he has next level explosiveness, or speed, or quicks or whatever it takes to translate, and I think that very often can be intangible-- something you see but cannot quantify. I think Davis translates and will be starting (or seeing significant RBBC use) in an NFL offense very soon. I am almost positive of it. I am cautious not to go south much on the top draft eligible backs this year. Like this years rookie WRs, most of them are terrific prospects with very few flaws. I thought Davis did a great job "getting small" in traffic against FSU, and the TD run against ULM was a picture perfect example of a back running low and exploding through the defense. You and Nowak both think he runs too high. I don't see it. I think that is becoming a canned criticism of any back taller than 5-9 who doesn't lean forward like LenDale White. It just isn't necessary. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson... they all run too high. Meh, it's a non issue. Davis is an interesting prospect, because nothing jumps out at you. He is not blazing fast, but he sure has finished a ton of very long runs in his short career. Davis is not extremely powerful but he sure does run through a ton of tackles. Davis isn't exceptionally quick, but man does he make a ton of good defenders miss. He has nice hands and he is a tough blocker. I think his secret is excellent vision, a strong combination of being very good at everything if not great at anything, with excellent instincts to know when to pile drive and when to jitterbug. Nice back.Can't wait for the season finale on Choice.
outstanding work here from Construx, can't wait to see the whole series play out!
And your thoughts on Davis? As I recall, you're not sold... or something. I just remember discussing his possibility of staying on as a senior and you like Spillar better, as you should.And I agree, this will be a nice series to follow all season. I guess he's doing Slaton from last week, an uninspiring performance, but he gets another swing tonight. Tune in folks. Steve Slaton = Reggie Bush.outstanding work here from Construx, can't wait to see the whole series play out!
eta: also Mr. Powderly, link to these when they post so we can discuss.eta more: because I do believe there is a reasonable chance Davis stays in school despite Spillar. There was a story this past Spring about him being completely sold out on Clemson winning the ACC and getting BCS and NC consideration "before this class leaves." Then it was reported that Spillar was going to transfer because of the RBBC with Davis, but Davis stopped him by counseling him with all the benefits of the situation. My read on both stories is that Davis really wants to stick it out and see that program succeed with him and Spillar leading the way.
Yeah, just started writing it up and this format means that you'll see some blah games from great runners. But that's what it should be, really. A peek inside the season instead of just packaged highlight plays. You make a good point above with your question to Bloom. Maybe some of the ho-hum on Davis is because his backfield mate Spillar is just so explosive and quick. Maybe he pales in comparison? Of course you could have said the same about Bush and White at USC, right? How'd that one work out? :(And your thoughts on Davis? As I recall, you're not sold... or something. I just remember discussing his possibility of staying on as a senior and you like Spillar better, as you should.And I agree, this will be a nice series to follow all season. I guess he's doing Slaton from last week, an uninspiring performance, but he gets another swing tonight. Tune in folks. Steve Slaton = Reggie Bush.outstanding work here from Construx, can't wait to see the whole series play out!
Spillar. I have a soft spot for the guys who can make breathtaking plays, and Spillar is one of them. The way Spillar gets up to top speed out of cuts in only one or two strides is unreal.
Very good point. Where are you on the Jackson/Wynn battle in Green Bay? As I recall, Jackson went down too easily and Wynn didn't have the vision or lateral movement. Any change in your opinion after seeing them in the NFL?Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. Do you really???
Hi Wildman. I explained how simplistic I like things way back in those long emails before you embarked on the awesome project. Remember you sent me a sample of your original form for my opinion. It was in my reply, which was not at all critical, just my approach. And yes, I am pretty sure you responded with almost exactly what you think you would have responded with.Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. Do you really???Chaos, I don't remember but if you did tell me, I'd probably respond that there's nothing wrong with a lot of analysis.
It was nearly three years ago. But to the point I am making, here is what I am getting at. Take a back like Chris Markey. He does everything right. He was so good as a Sophomore he was in RBBC with MJD. He runs with power, he has good speed, he has good size, he has excellent moves, he runs with vision, he's good between the tackles, he blocks well, he has nice hands, he has quick feet, he has a nice stiff arm, he carries the ball right, he switches hands when necessary, he is tough late in games. Then let's look at Felix Jones. He seems a little slender, he doesn't run inside, and he's not much for blocking. He is magnificently athletic and explosive. Markey isn't. Jones is a legit NFL talent. Markey probably isn't. I think Jones goes in the 1st or 2nd round as an underclassman, and Markey goes second day as a senior if he's lucky. I look for NFL chops. Does he translate? That's the whole of the matter to me. I love reading advanced breakdowns, and I hope you sell a million of them, and I think you do a great job-- better than the entire crew at NFL Draft Scout (no kidding, they make me roll my eyes half the time). It's clear they don't always break down film, and you always do. I don't care if an RB carries the ball in his armpit, or if a WR uses his to catch the ball. If they are piling up numbers, making fools of the college boys and not fumbling or having drops, then that's what matters most. They are kids after all. They get bigger and they improve technically when this becomes a career. But they need that juice, those big league chops, to ever have a chance to begin with. Anyway, where's Slaton, C-Boy? That dude is easy to criticize and he's gonna be a star.
Still in the middle of the 2nd quarter of the game. Taking longer that I anticipated, but I'll still do them all, just won't be done before the next week of games. As for Slaton, I still say the same thing that got you upset last year: I'm just not sure he has the desire to be an NFL great. He's too talented to bust, but it's something you notice a bit when you watch him, at least in my opinion. Maybe he's bored. Looks like it a bit in the Marshall game. And there is that issue with him running too upright.....Hi Wildman. I explained how simplistic I like things way back in those long emails before you embarked on the awesome project. Remember you sent me a sample of your original form for my opinion. It was in my reply, which was not at all critical, just my approach. And yes, I am pretty sure you responded with almost exactly what you think you would have responded with.Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. Do you really???Chaos, I don't remember but if you did tell me, I'd probably respond that there's nothing wrong with a lot of analysis.
I remember now...(just ran across this post btw, thanks for the comments). Here's what you said where you and I differ on the topic:"I don't care if an RB carries the ball in his armpit, or if a WR uses his to catch the ball. If they are piling up numbers, making fools of the college boys and not fumbling or having drops, then that's what matters most. They are kids after all. They get bigger and they improve technically when this becomes a career. But they need that juice, those big league chops, to ever have a chance to begin with. "While I agree you have to have a certain level of "natural chops," if you focus solely on speed, size, strength, and instincts then there's a risk of getting too enamored with potential rather than skill sets. If you look at the range of physical measurements of players in college and compare that to the range of pro players you'll find the gap between the pros is far smaller than that of the college guy. In other words, a top college star's speed/strength/quickness has a more dramatic effect in college than it does in pro football where the LB runs as fast (or faster) in a short area than a RB. When there is a smaller margin of difference, the little things actually stand out much more! This is why I care whether a guy catches the ball with his hands or carries the ball in his armpit. Or pressing a hole and showing patience. It's the difference between a guy like Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis who worked on the small details and Tatum Bell, Blair Thomas, etc who had great chops but didn't work on the small stuff. Not a lot of these players improve technically to the point that they are good enough to start. These techniques really make a difference at the pro level because the coverage is tighter, the holes are smaller, the players are faster. Understanding leverage, body positioning, hand techniques, ball protection, blocking techniques not only keep you healthier and make you more productive, they get you on the field to contribute in the first place!The key is being able to distill the analysis into something that gives the reader an idea as to why the small things matter enough to separate a guy with "average/slightly below average NFL measurables" but great skills from a guy with great measurables and weak techniques. What a detailed analysis will often tell is whether the player is on his way to refining the necessary techniques to become a productive NFL player in conjunction with his physical talent. Evaluation is a great process for learning about the game and I'm still learning a lot, but I am realizing as I have taken on this project that little things make a difference. One more example. I'm evaluating two runners who ran the exact same play that Clinton Portis ran against Dallas in week 17 to score his first TD of the day It was to the left side of the Dallas defense and he hit the alley between the T and lead blocker despite the hole not opening until he went into the alley. Even then, the hole was very small. Especially compared to the one that usually opens off guard. The difference is that the play is designed to go off tackle because the LB won't be in this gap and will be at a disadvantage to get there if the RB hits it with confidence. Portis hit it confidently and then split to DBs for a score. I analyzed film of two runners in college running this play. One chose to freelance and go to the bigger hole and got stuffed for a one-yard loss (McFadden) and the other hit the hole where it was supposed to go and nearly got a first down and a much longer gain (UCF's Kevin Smith). Both were against I believe 8-man fronts. I'm not concluding that McFadden isn't going to be a good pro (I'm still studying him) but I'm saying I'll have a strong chance of spotting players capable of making the most of their opportunity if and when it comes. We all know NFL personnel folks cover their behind on high picks by justifying it on physical measurements and school pedigree because it buys them time in their job if they are occasionally wrong--the judgment process was "sound." That's why these guys get picked higher than a guy without ALL the measurements and pedigree but great skills AND elite physical skills in some, but not all areas. As I say a lot, it's why Gil Brandt said Brian Westbrook was a top 5 pick if he were 10 pounds heavier and a couple of inches taller when he was a rookie prospect. He had top 5 ability and they saw it, but were too scared to take the risk because the small school, size, and injury issues to some extent made it difficult to justify financially. Hope all is well with you and keep up the good work!Hi Wildman. I explained how simplistic I like things way back in those long emails before you embarked on the awesome project. Remember you sent me a sample of your original form for my opinion. It was in my reply, which was not at all critical, just my approach. And yes, I am pretty sure you responded with almost exactly what you think you would have responded with.Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing. Do you really???Chaos, I don't remember but if you did tell me, I'd probably respond that there's nothing wrong with a lot of analysis.
Appreciate it John, I like the work you're doing and am looking forward to seeing more at DraftGuys...good stuff!
BumpDavis has declared in a move he's been hinting at for the past year.He hasn't been heralded as one of the top Junior RBs from the "experts" but IMO he is- at the very least- in the mix with Jamaal Charles, Kevin Smith, Mike Hart, Chris Johnson and Tashard Choice after the top 6 (Steve Slaton, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Darren McFadden)
Hey Bloom can you guys put dates on your rankings. I like to know how recent they are.I like Davis - he's a thickly built back who may not leave crushed defenders in his wake, but he still uses that mass to his advantage by running with a lot of determination, which makes him hard to bring down. I like the MBIII comparison - he might not have quite as much juice in his cuts, or explosion out of his cuts, but he is similar sturdy back with surprising speed and elusiveness.Yes, ISpillar. I have a soft spot for the guys who can make breathtaking plays, and Spillar is one of them. The way Spillar gets up to top speed out of cuts in only one or two strides is unreal.
Hey Bloom can you guys put dates on your rankings. I like to know how recent they are.I like Davis - he's a thickly built back who may not leave crushed defenders in his wake, but he still uses that mass to his advantage by running with a lot of determination, which makes him hard to bring down. I like the MBIII comparison - he might not have quite as much juice in his cuts, or explosion out of his cuts, but he is similar sturdy back with surprising speed and elusiveness.Yes, ISpillar. I have a soft spot for the guys who can make breathtaking plays, and Spillar is one of them. The way Spillar gets up to top speed out of cuts in only one or two strides is unreal.
....... fyi, the baca rankings that are currently up are seniors only and were delivered early december
The Auburn game he was 23 for 77 and a TD, not great by any stretch but not one of his better efforts.The kid can play football, though. Will he be a star? Probably not.
I saw career backup in that game. I give very little credence to stats when gauging RBs. For a guy with average mobility and speed, I need to hear pads pop and defenders falling backwards.
Stats may not tell the whole story but he did average over 5.3 YPC for his three year career and scored about a TD a game. He's been extremely good in the college ranks and definitely would have had much better stats if he wasn't sharing some time with Spiller. If he is in the right situation at the next level, I think he'll be able to produce, but who knows where he'll end up. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, though.
hey any idea of when the underclassmen will be added. TIAHey Bloom can you guys put dates on your rankings. I like to know how recent they are.I like Davis - he's a thickly built back who may not leave crushed defenders in his wake, but he still uses that mass to his advantage by running with a lot of determination, which makes him hard to bring down. I like the MBIII comparison - he might not have quite as much juice in his cuts, or explosion out of his cuts, but he is similar sturdy back with surprising speed and elusiveness.Yes, ISpillar. I have a soft spot for the guys who can make breathtaking plays, and Spillar is one of them. The way Spillar gets up to top speed out of cuts in only one or two strides is unreal.
....... fyi, the baca rankings that are currently up are seniors only and were delivered early december
That is the same way I analyze college backs. Do their skills translate well to the pros? Every defender in the NFL was an All American/All League player. They are all fast. Getting to the edge in college is 10 times easier than in the NFL. I see a guy like Steve Slaton and I see a small, fast kid who cannot run between the tackles. Probably should be a 6th or 7th round pick based on returning potential. I look at James Davis and Ray Rice as two players whose skills translate very well at the next level. Both have great balance, and most important, vision. They find the crease, make their cut and go. No wasted motion, and that is key in the NFL. If you dance, if you try to stretch it out, you are going down for no gain. Ray Rice and James Davis are going to be solid starters in the NFL.But to the point I am making, here is what I am getting at. Take a back like Chris Markey. He does everything right. He was so good as a Sophomore he was in RBBC with MJD. He runs with power, he has good speed, he has good size, he has excellent moves, he runs with vision, he's good between the tackles, he blocks well, he has nice hands, he has quick feet, he has a nice stiff arm, he carries the ball right, he switches hands when necessary, he is tough late in games. Then let's look at Felix Jones. He seems a little slender, he doesn't run inside, and he's not much for blocking. He is magnificently athletic and explosive. Markey isn't. Jones is a legit NFL talent. Markey probably isn't. I think Jones goes in the 1st or 2nd round as an underclassman, and Markey goes second day as a senior if he's lucky. I look for NFL chops. Does he translate? That's the whole of the matter to me. I love reading advanced breakdowns, and I hope you sell a million of them, and I think you do a great job-- better than the entire crew at NFL Draft Scout (no kidding, they make me roll my eyes half the time). It's clear they don't always break down film, and you always do. I don't care if an RB carries the ball in his armpit, or if a WR uses his to catch the ball. If they are piling up numbers, making fools of the college boys and not fumbling or having drops, then that's what matters most. They are kids after all. They get bigger and they improve technically when this becomes a career. But they need that juice, those big league chops, to ever have a chance to begin with.Thanks John. I like this kid a lot. I think much of the technical analysis is overthought in these kind of breakdowns, and I tell Waldman the same thing.
Do you really???
Chaos, I don't remember but if you did tell me, I'd probably respond that there's nothing wrong with a lot of analysis.
Spiller
