RB Joe Mixon, HOU (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

Maybe Chubb pre-injury was more talented, but I think Mixon is better than Chubb and Guice now. He'd be my #2 rookie RB behind Barkley.

I know the stats weren't there last year, but I still think he can be a star in the NFL if he stays motivated and works hard.

He has the total package of skills. He's big, fast, elusive, and he can catch.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Maybe Chubb pre-injury was more talented, but I think Mixon is better than Chubb and Guice now. He'd be my #2 rookie RB behind Barkley.

I know the stats weren't there last year, but I still think he can be a star in the NFL if he stays motivated and works hard.

He has the total package of skills. He's big, fast, elusive, and he can catch.

I think he’s better than Zeke, Fournette, and on par with Gurley. 

I sold him last year because I had an offer I just couldn’t refuse (Julio/Melvin Gordon for my Ertz/Mixon)

But I’m all aboard with Mixon. Actually gonna push hard to get him back. 

He’s gonna be a 3 down stud - the only knock is that he’s a bengal. But I don’t even worry about that. I’d be buying everywhere if I could.

All that being said, he sucks - everyone should sell ?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

You gotta handcuff Giovanni Bernard with him, but yeah, production to be had in CIncinatti.

 

[Borden]

There was widespread optimism after he was drafted early last year, so my question to the pool is where would you rank him among the 2018 rookie RB's?  Talent wise, I think he's #3 but situation wise, I'd jump him ahead of Guice since Chris Thompson will hold that down.  I know I thought of Mixon as the most talent in 2017 but all his surrounding questions were tough to ignore.  So where would people rank him knowing landing spot and talent level?  

Fun question. Removing landing spot for a moment, I think Mixon and Michel are extremely similar players. I think you could even make an argument for their work horse potential to be the same. NE using a first on Sony and Cincy letting Hill go (to NE). To me, where ever someone has Sony ranked is where they should have Mixon ranked. 

 

[Biabreakable]

 I tend to agree, but also concerned we may be writing off Gio too quickly.

2017

Giovanni Bernard 16 games 105 rushing attempts 458 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 60 targets 43 receptions 389 yards 2 TD 847 yards 5.7 yards per touch 4 TD 

Joe Mixon 14 games 178 rushing attempts 626 yards (3.5 ypc) 4 TD 34 targets 30 receptions 287 yards 0 TD 913 total yards 4.4 yards per touch 4 TD 

 

[Borden]

2017

Giovanni Bernard 16 games 105 rushing attempts 458 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 60 targets 43 receptions 389 yards 2 TD 847 yards 5.7 yards per touch 4 TD 

Joe Mixon 14 games 178 rushing attempts 626 yards (3.5 ypc) 4 TD 34 targets 30 receptions 287 yards 0 TD 913 total yards 4.4 yards per touch 4 TD 

Gio got less volume per game but significantly out produced him per touch. I’m not sure your stance on if people are writing off Gio too quickly based on the stats you used. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Gio got less volume per game but significantly out produced him per touch. I’m not sure your stance on if people are writing off Gio too quickly based on the stats you used. 

My view is that Bernard has been under utilized the entire time he has been with the Bengals. Which doesn't really have anything to do with Mixon, its a fault of the coaches in my opinion.. He will be 27 years old this season and no reason to think that will change although looking at it objectively probably should. Makes me sad that they gave Hill so much opportunity with a better player on the roster wasting Bernards youth.

Also to show that making excuses for the poor offensive line play while legitimate did not hold Bernard back as much as it did Mixon.

Some of the recent posts about Mixon are overly optimistic and I agree with bombjack that people are overlooking how good Bernard is, so the stats used to show that.

Still expect Mixon to likely out touch Bernard by a great margin in 2018. Not sure that is the right thing to do or a smart thing to do, but that is what Marvin Lewis and the Bengals will do.

 

[Biabreakable]

Joe Mixon game logs

He basically had four good games the whole season, against Green Bay, Cleveland, Indianapolis and Baltimore. The other 10 games were not very good at all.

He barely did better than Samajae Perine (3,9 yards per touch compared to 4.4 yards per touch) who most would agree was a disappointment. Yet people are still talking about him as the best RB from the 2017 draft class 

Fournette, CMC, Kamara and Hunt really outperformed him. I would think they should at least be ahead of Mixon if doing a combined 2017-2018 list.

In college Mixon did not have to run between the tackles much. He is still learning how to do that. A lot of what you read from people who love Mixon is that he was a flawless talent. I think he has issues with his vision and reading defenses but folks who like him do not acknowledge that. 

I still think Mixon can be a top 12 RB either this season or next. He does not have a good start though. He has always been borderline low tier one or high tier two RB to me.

 

[EBF]

I don't see the Michel/Mixon comp. Michel is not as big or as elusive. He is a more limited talent. I'm surprised the Pats took him so high. I think he's a pretty good back, but from a FF standpoint I think there's a chance he becomes sort of a Donald Brown/Felix Jones. He's in a similar metrics zone being a moderately undersized 1st round back with mediocre speed. He'll have value by virtue of the system, but purely in terms of talent, I don't think he is on the same plane as Mixon. I think Mixon has Pro Bowl type of ability.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

You gotta handcuff Giovanni Bernard with him, but yeah, production to be had in CIncinatti.

I agree with this. I think there is enough meat on the bones for both guys to be fantasy relevant.  As I said earlier—I think Mixon has huge breakout potential and I think he could be top 7 fantasy rb good in ppr formats.   The Bengals have the best schedule for running backs next season according to this article.  Yes—I understand that defenses can and do change—-but I don’t think the Bengals can afford to under utilize their running game against their schedule.  

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/22/joe-mixon-faces-easiest-running-back-schedule-nfl/

 

[BigTex]

I agree with this. I think there is enough meat on the bones for both guys to be fantasy relevant.  As I said earlier—I think Mixon has huge breakout potential and I think he could be top 7 fantasy rb good in ppr formats.   The Bengals have the best schedule for running backs next season according to this article.  Yes—I understand that defenses can and do change—-but I don’t think the Bengals can afford to under utilize their running game against their schedule.  

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/22/joe-mixon-faces-easiest-running-back-schedule-nfl/

I agree as well and I’m lucky enough to have both.

Tex

 

[cloppbeast]

college Mixon did not have to run between the tackles much. He is still learning how to do that. A lot of what you read from people who love Mixon is that he was a flawless talent. I think he has issues with his vision and reading defenses but folks who like him do not acknowledge that. 

I loved Mixon coming out of college with those video game abilities. But after watching him in the NFL, I have to agree with you about running between the tackles. He lacks vision; getting outplayed by a much smaller back makes it clear enough to me. 

On a side note, Mixon's initial struggles cause me some concern for Saquan Barkley, who, if he has a weakness, it's his vision. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I loved Mixon coming out of college with those video game abilities. But after watching him in the NFL, I have to agree with you about running between the tackles. He lacks vision; getting outplayed by a much smaller back makes it clear enough to me. 

On a side note, Mixon's initial struggles cause me some concern for Saquan Barkley, who, if he has a weakness, it's his vision. 

Yeah this might be applicable to Barkley as well. Something worth looking further into I suppose. Barkley is so good and grades so high that I haven't worried about it that much. I did sse some clips that someone posted in his thread awhile back of Barkley running between the tackles 3 seasons ago, where he looked fine doing that. I don't think they really asked him to do that much the last two seasons. I was satisfied with what I saw enough that I stopped exploring that with Barkley.

The thing that concerns me about poor vision or instincts is that I am not sure that is something a player can improve on or that coaching can change. It is such an intrinsic thing of understanding your blocking, how the defense is going to react to it and having a feeling for when the RB needs to make a cut, their spatial awareness and understanding the flow of the play.

It is something that it seems like the player either has it or they don't. Trent Richardson for example a very gifted athlete, able to do everything you would want a RB to except he could not read his blocks. It made him a bust. He went to several teams and none of them were able to get through to him or teach him how to read his blocking well.

Not saying Mixon is as bad as RIchardson as far as this goes, just saying that I don't know if this is something that Mixon can improve on or not.

I do recall Adrian Peterson talking about not having enough patience early on in his career, to press the hole and set up his blocks before cutting or hitting the hole. That is something he did get better at with time, so maybe Mixon can get better at that in time as well. I am just not sure he will.

David Johnson seemed to have a learning curve in regards to running inside early on in his career. I am not sure how much he really improved on that but obviously he got better and there are other ways to use a RB than inside zone. Maybe he is an example of a player improving their vision, I don't know. Its too hard for me to judge as where I saw him having issues was only one college game and some preseason games.

Maybe there are some other examples people can think of and maybe it is something a player can improve and develop over time, I just know a lot of other RB have not been able to, and from a teaching perspective, I think it is very hard to get a player to see things they do not otherwise see.

There was a learning curve for Mixon coming in. Oklahoma used him almost exclusively as a satellite back, getting him out in space with their scheme because they had Perine to do the dirty work for them when they needed it. They even had both RB on the field at the same time a fair amount as a way to keep the defenses guessing what they might do on any given play.

 

[Milkman]

Mixon is one of my biggest targets this year. Lots of things to like. He seems undervalued to me. Liked his tape last year saw flashes. The offense was in a total funk but they've made improvements. 

I expect Mixon to be a top 10 dynasty asset at the end of the upcoming season. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is the game against Ohio State of Barkley as a freshman. You see him running inside a bit more in this game that you don't see as much in the more recent games.

The issue of Barleys vision was discussed at length for a few pages of Barkleys thread back in early February if anyone wants to catch up on that I guess start here

I talk about the vision in this post mostly comparing Barkley and Guice, but also Chubb.

Guice has the best vision from my charting with 92 Barkley had 69 and Chubb 51

 

[32 Counter Pass]

2017

Giovanni Bernard 16 games 105 rushing attempts 458 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 60 targets 43 receptions 389 yards 2 TD 847 yards 5.7 yards per touch 4 TD 

Joe Mixon 14 games 178 rushing attempts 626 yards (3.5 ypc) 4 TD 34 targets 30 receptions 287 yards 0 TD 913 total yards 4.4 yards per touch 4 TD 

And this is why I am having a tough time buying into Mixon at his current ADP. I liked what I saw from Mixon in college, and lots of folks who are more inknowledgable than I are pumping him up this coming season. The general narrative seems to be that Mixon's poor production was due to the Bengals oline. If so, how do people explain that Gio averaged nearly 1 ypc more than Mixon behind the same line?

 

[Biabreakable]

And this is why I am having a tough time buying into Mixon at his current ADP. I liked what I saw from Mixon in college, and lots of folks who are more inknowledgable than I are pumping him up this coming season. The general narrative seems to be that Mixon's poor production was due to the Bengals oline. If so, how do people explain that Gio averaged nearly 1 ypc more than Mixon behind the same line?

Well part of that is how they are being used. YPC for Bernard will be higher when a larger number of his carries are on longer down and distance situations as is true with all players.

So that would need to be broken down. Looking at success rate between the two would be something to consider from football outsiders for example. Or just looking at the splits.

Beyond that Bernard is very good. Honestly I think the Bengals haven't had as much confidence in him as I think they should. They should have been using him more. However Marvin Lewis is not going to change what he thinks about this, so I do not expect that to change.

Joe Mixon has trouble reading blocks and he didn't have to run inside much with Oklahoma. The Bengals are asking him to do that now and as you see the results were not that great. 

He was a rookie so I would expect some improvement. However I have some doubts about if his vision can improve. Something that has been glossed over by folks in regards to Mixon the whole time. He did have some really good plays as a rookie as well, but not very many of them, and a lot of dead plays.

Improved blocking should help, but there are still flaws in Mixon's game that I think people need to consider but mostly haven't.

 

[cloppbeast]

Well part of that is how they are being used. YPC for Bernard will be higher when a larger number of his carries are on longer down and distance situations as is true with all players.

So that would need to be broken down. Looking at success rate between the two would be something to consider from football outsiders for example. Or just looking at the splits.

Beyond that Bernard is very good. Honestly I think the Bengals haven't had as much confidence in him as I think they should. They should have been using him more. However Marvin Lewis is not going to change what he thinks about this, so I do not expect that to change.

Joe Mixon has trouble reading blocks and he didn't have to run inside much with Oklahoma. The Bengals are asking him to do that now and as you see the results were not that great. 

He was a rookie so I would expect some improvement. However I have some doubts about if his vision can improve. Something that has been glossed over by folks in regards to Mixon the whole time. He did have some really good plays as a rookie as well, but not very many of them, and a lot of dead plays.

Improved blocking should help, but there are still flaws in Mixon's game that I think people need to consider but mostly haven't.

I'm confused as to why the Lewis doesn't like Bernard. They spent a high pick on him and then gave him a pretty decent contract. Since the Bengals picked him, they've made similar draft investments in 2 more. Bernard definitely deserves more respect. As to why he out performed Mixon, the situational considerations are overblown. Bernard does much better running between the tackles no matter the down and distance. Ironically, I think Mixon offers more as a receiver because of his open field prowess and speed. But he's a confused rabbit in trenches. Mixon reminds me of Theo Riddick, although more of a man.

 

[Casting Couch]

Mixon is one of my biggest targets this year. Lots of things to like. He seems undervalued to me. Liked his tape last year saw flashes. The offense was in a total funk but they've made improvements. 

I expect Mixon to be a top 10 dynasty asset at the end of the upcoming season. 

Mixon is a top 10 dynasty RB right now, I think the value is gone. I think he's a great SELL now. He is overvalued in dynasty circles, in my opinion.

 

[menobrown]

Mixon is a top 10 dynasty RB right now, I think the value is gone. I think he's a great SELL now. He is overvalued in dynasty circles, in my opinion.

I'd bet he is outside the top 10 dynasty RB's for at least half of dynasty players and he absolutely has room to grow. I've been trying to BUY him all off-season because grow I think he will.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Now if only you guys were in the same league together.

 

[Hankmoody]

I'd bet he is outside the top 10 dynasty RB's for at least half of dynasty players and he absolutely has room to grow. I've been trying to BUY him all off-season because grow I think he will.

The problem is that he's likely already in the hands of the half who believe in him so I get the point CC is making.  His price to us would be far higher than justified by what he's accomplished thus far - he's a mini-Barkley in that regard.  Where I disagree with CC is that he's a sell, because those that already believe in him aren't taking what market value should be for a 2nd year 2nd round draft pick that rushed for what 500 yards?.  We're letting our narrative, right wrong or indifferent, that he's an elite talent prop up our value.  The only way someone is going to pry him from us is if they are also believers and are willing to pay the projected value we have on him - again, much like Barkley owners.

 

[menobrown]

I'm confused as to why the Lewis doesn't like Bernard.

I've read a few Bengals beat writers which say he does in fact not like Gio, he loves him. He's a highly valued member of the team and one of the leaders of the team.

But the Browns like Duke and Patriots liked Dion but liking a smaller back and believing he can be a bell cow are not the same. It just seems Cincy believes the best use of Gio is not overuse.

Gio was better than Mixon last year but I'm not sweating that for Mixon at all. I think he had a lot of issues that made him press early, ranging from sporadic playing time, poor OL and not having enough patience which to me is not always vision related but a byproduct of poor OL play-something I was seeing in Gurley before McVay rescued him. Also he was probably not in optimal shape.

I'll just add that last year I ranked him as my #4 player in rookie drafts, #3 RB. My first draft of the year I took him at 4 and then proceeded to tell anyone who would listen to me that he should be avoided in 2017. I felt strongly he'd have a poor rookie year and I'm a huge rookie RB redraft investor and was heavily investing in rookie RB's last year in redraft, just not him. But just as surely as I felt he'd have a poor rookie year I think he rebounds this year.

But because of Gio, even though I think he has a skillset of a DJ/Bell type, he won't hit that kind of upside as a Bengal.

 

[menobrown]

The problem is that he's likely already in the hands of the half who believe in him so I get the point CC is making.  His price to us would be far higher than justified by what he's accomplished thus far - he's a mini-Barkley in that regard.  Where I disagree with CC is that he's a sell, because those that already believe in him aren't taking what market value should be for a 2nd year 2nd round draft pick that rushed for what 500 yards?.  We're letting our narrative, right wrong or indifferent, that he's an elite talent prop up our value.  The only way someone is going to pry him from us is if they are also believers and are willing to pay the projected value we have on him - again, much like Barkley owners.

I think you could say that about any player and when I've referenced trying to buy him I'm not talking about trying to buy him at some lowball price and the offers I get for him are usually strong as well. As examples I both offered and refused pick 1.2, both offered and refused McCaffrey for him and in both leagues CMC was picked before Mixon in previous years rookie draft.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Mixon is a top 10 dynasty RB right now, I think the value is gone. I think he's a great SELL now. He is overvalued in dynasty circles, in my opinion.

You stating he is top 10 so conclusively made me think about my top 10. I think I would take these 7 over him, in really no order

1. Zeke
   
2. Gurley
   
3. Barkley
   
4. Kamara
   
5. DJ
   
6. Fournette
   
7. Hunt
   

Then you have some "older" guys such as Bell and Freeman and maybe even Gordon who might seem like better values and have already produced at a top level. If people are valuing him over these players, he's certainly looking overvalued to me

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm confused as to why the Lewis doesn't like Bernard. They spent a high pick on him and then gave him a pretty decent contract. Since the Bengals picked him, they've made similar draft investments in 2 more. Bernard definitely deserves more respect. As to why he out performed Mixon, the situational considerations are overblown. Bernard does much better running between the tackles no matter the down and distance. Ironically, I think Mixon offers more as a receiver because of his open field prowess and speed. But he's a confused rabbit in trenches. Mixon reminds me of Theo Riddick, although more of a man.

I haven't looked at the splits or success rate for the two RB on the Bengals last year. I was just speculating that these are contributing factors and hinting at those are things someone could look up and share, as I didn't have time to at that moment.

Here is the success rate. 41% for Mixon 40% for Bernard. Pretty even. I was actually expecting Bernard to be better than Mixon here. He wasn't.

Bernard had 15% of his runs on 3rd or 4th down. 68.6% of his runs were when the Bengals needed 10 or more yards for a 1st down. He averaged 5.1 ypc on first and 10 to go and 60.1% of his total yardage was gained on 1st and 10 situations. 12.5% of his yards were gained on 3rd downs. Bernard struggled on the 12 carries he had when the Bengals needed 3 yards or less to get a 1st down only having 1.8 ypc on these runs.

Mixon had 3% of his runs on 3rd or 4th down. 70.2% of his runs were when the Bengals needed 10 or more yards for a 1st down. He averaged 3.3 ypc on first and 10 to go and 52.4% of his total yardage was gained on 1st and 10 situations. 5.5% of his yards were gained on 3rd downs. Mixon struggled on the 20 carries he had when the Bengals needed 3 yards or less to get a 1st down only having 2.6 ypc on these runs.

Somewhat strange that Mixon had his best ypc on downs where the Bengals needed 4-6 yards for a first down. He was below average otherwise.

All of that adds up to the not very good success rate from FBO. Which may point more towards the offensive line than anything else. Bernard had 49% success rate in 2015 which is pretty good.

The splits actually show that Bernard was a more effective RB on 1st and 10 situations than Mixon or on just 1st downs in general. 5.1 ypc on 55 1st down runs for Bernard 3,3 ypc for Mixon on his 107 attempts. It seems like the Bengals would have been better off having Bernard handle 1st downs and get the volume Mixon had instead of the other way around.

I agree with you that Bernard can run inside or outside. In my view he is a complete RB. However Marvin Lewis does not seem to see it this way as evidenced by the picks of Hill and MIxon despite already having Bernard.

At least Hill had a better success rate than Mixon did, which again may point towards the offensive line being better when Hill was playing for them.

 

[Biabreakable]

You stating he is top 10 so conclusively made me think about my top 10. I think I would take these 7 over him, in really no order

1. Zeke
   
2. Gurley
   
3. Barkley
   
4. Kamara
   
5. DJ
   
6. Fournette
   
7. Hunt
   

Then you have some "older" guys such as Bell and Freeman and maybe even Gordon who might seem like better values and have already produced at a top level. If people are valuing him over these players, he's certainly looking overvalued to me

You forgot Dalvin Cook.

Mixon is being drafted 12th overall according to this ADP he is being drafted ahead of Freeman.

Mike Clay has Mixon ranked as the 13th RB.

This seems about right to me although I don't really like the price point of 22nd overall.

 

[cloppbeast]

This seems about right to me although I don't really like the price point of 22nd overall.

This price is incredibly high for a guy who has played poorly in the NFL so far. We've seen players with a massive hype trains who hadn't done much yet: Cordarrelle Patterson, Christine Michael, Saquon Barkley to name a few. I can't remember a guy with this much coal on the fire when he's already played poorly. I understand some of the excuses on this thread, but a guy with excuses should have a lower price. 

 

[voiceofunreason]

This price is incredibly high for a guy who has played poorly in the NFL so far. We've seen players with a massive hype trains who hadn't done much yet: Cordarrelle Patterson, Christine Michael, Saquon Barkley to name a few. I can't remember a guy with this much coal on the fire when he's already played poorly. I understand some of the excuses on this thread, but a guy with excuses should have a lower price. 

I'd certainly sell at that price but nobody has even made an offer. It would seem very unlikely in the leagues I'm in.

 

[Slider]

I think coaching is holding him back. What O are they even running? AJ had had a host of bad games the last 3 years and Dalton is everyone's whipping boy. Almost like they look for one mismatch and go to it exclusively. Zone kills that and they fold.

Shocked Lewis is still there.

 

[Biabreakable]

This price is incredibly high for a guy who has played poorly in the NFL so far. We've seen players with a massive hype trains who hadn't done much yet: Cordarrelle Patterson, Christine Michael, Saquon Barkley to name a few. I can't remember a guy with this much coal on the fire when he's already played poorly. I understand some of the excuses on this thread, but a guy with excuses should have a lower price. 

If he busts then sure.

I am not ready to write him off just yet. He does have some very good elusiveness and is great at catching the ball as well. Of course they already had a RB who could do that, so it seems a bit redundant. RIght now they are trying to fit a square peg in a round hole by asking him to handle the power RB role in their offense like they had Hill doing, but that isn't really what he is good at. I agree with you it is baffling.

However who do you think should be drafted over him?

Jordan Howard?

Jay Ajayi?

I maybe could agree with those two although I wouldn't want to pay a high draft pick on them either. Who else is proven that you think should be taken ahead of him?

For the rookies I would take Guice ahead of him. Likely Jones and Penny as well, but its not like those guys are more proven at the NFL level.

 

[cloppbeast]

Jordan Howard?

Jay Ajayi?

I agree with you about Mixon's potential because we all saw what he did in college. But what he didn't do in collage matters too. His glaring weaknesses should factor into a lower price than a top 25 dynasty player.

I'd put him right around Ajayi, Drake, or Jones II, lower than Howard. 

 

[Milkman]

Mixon is a top 10 dynasty RB right now, I think the value is gone. I think he's a great SELL now. He is overvalued in dynasty circles, in my opinion.

Yeah I didn't say top 10 dynasty RB. I said top ten dynasty asset. Meaning overall. He looked great at times to me. I wouldn't sell him but if you think he's overvalued by all means sell away. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Mixon is a top 10 dynasty RB right now, I think the value is gone. I think he's a great SELL now. He is overvalued in dynasty circles, in my opinion.

Yeah I didn't say top 10 dynasty RB. I said top ten dynasty asset. Meaning overall. He looked great at times to me. I wouldn't sell him but if you think he's overvalued by all means sell away. 

Wouldn't that be worse than saying he's a top 10 dynasty RB? Saying he's a top 10 dynasty player means you have him top 10 among all positions? That's pretty bold. Not sure I'd agree there. I don't see Mixon as a top 10 pick in a dynasty re-draft. Especially when I can name 10 RBs I'd rather have over Mixon in dynasty. 

That being said, I do like Mixon. I don't think last year comes as a surprise. He was in a crowded backfield. Many of his critics were right. I forget who it was earlier in this thread (probably bia or chaka or freebagel... on of those people that always offers awesome insight), but they said that when you saw how Mixon ran when he did get the ball- bounce to the outside etc, that he didn't feel it would be a good translation into his NFL game. And I think that showed to some degree. But it's too early to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Mixon is only 21 years old. People are falling over themselves inthe Chubb thread and he's a whole 18 months older than Mixon. Mixon has 2 more years, IMO, to figure out his game

Mixon needs time and still may end up being a very very good RB. He could still be the best from this class, however early indications are pointing toward Hunt and possibly Cook depending how he comes back. Maybe even Kamara. (FTR I do not think Fournette holds up long term. Ankles are a concern for me). 

I think Mixon is a decent buy just as much as he is a sell. Many people are still really excited about him and may pay more than his 2017 stats should bring. Likewise, he may not get better. Jury is still out. I see Chubb's 2018 outlook similar to Mixon. I think next year this time Chubb would be a very good buy. 
FWIW I am trying to buy Mixon in my league but I can't seem to get his owner to respond, or he's not interested. 

 

[Casting Couch]

Yeah I didn't say top 10 dynasty RB. I said top ten dynasty asset. Meaning overall. He looked great at times to me. I wouldn't sell him but if you think he's overvalued by all means sell away. 

Top 10 overall ?  No thank you, he just doesn't pass the eye test for me to put him that high. 

 

[Tau837]

Well part of that is how they are being used. YPC for Bernard will be higher when a larger number of his carries are on longer down and distance situations as is true with all players.

Well, it's easy enough to check. Per DD, here are their splits from last season:

• 1-3 yards to go:
  
  Mixon: 20/52/1 (2.6 ypc) with 12 first downs (including TD)
  
• Bernard: 12/21/1 (1.8 ypc) with 6 first downs (including TD)
  

[*]4+ yards to go:

• 
  Mixon: 157/572/3 (3.6 ypc) with 23 first downs (including TDs)
  
• Bernard: 94/438/1 (4.7 ypc) with 14 first downs (including TD)
  

OK, doesn't look like it relates much to distance. Was Bernard cleaning up on passing situation carries? Per ESPN splits, which is easier to aggregate the following splits: 2nd and 8+ plus 3rd and 6+ plus 4th and 4+:

• Mixon: 32/118/0 (3.7 ypc)
  
• Bernard: 27/118/1 (4.4 ypc)
  

I'm not seeing a lot of correlation to down and distance here. I could be missing it or misinterpreting this data, though.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well, it's easy enough to check. Per DD, here are their splits from last season:

• 1-3 yards to go:
  
  Mixon: 20/52/1 (2.6 ypc) with 12 first downs (including TD)
  
• Bernard: 12/21/1 (1.8 ypc) with 6 first downs (including TD)
  

[*]4+ yards to go:

• 
  Mixon: 157/572/3 (3.6 ypc) with 23 first downs (including TDs)
  
• Bernard: 94/438/1 (4.7 ypc) with 14 first downs (including TD)
  

OK, doesn't look like it relates much to distance. Was Bernard cleaning up on passing situation carries? Per ESPN splits, which is easier to aggregate the following splits: 2nd and 8+ plus 3rd and 6+ plus 4th and 4+:

• Mixon: 32/118/0 (3.7 ypc)
  
• Bernard: 27/118/1 (4.4 ypc)
  

I'm not seeing a lot of correlation to down and distance here. I could be missing it or misinterpreting this data, though.

I didn't really find much of a difference except that Bernard was better than Mixon on 1st and 10 where Bernard was much better.

YPC with splits is kind of silly anyways though.

 

[barackdhouse]

Last year around this time I heard a lot of people say that we shouldn't expect much out of Mixon his rookie season because of how bad the Bengals OL was going to be.

I get the idea that Gio may have done a little better job, but is it really fair to now punish Mixon, in terms of value, for performing basically as predicted? I feel like OL play is so much more important than we already think it is. I don't own him anywhere. 

 

[Dan Hindery]

I'm confused as to why the Lewis doesn't like Bernard. They spent a high pick on him and then gave him a pretty decent contract. Since the Bengals picked him, they've made similar draft investments in 2 more. Bernard definitely deserves more respect. As to why he out performed Mixon, the situational considerations are overblown. Bernard does much better running between the tackles no matter the down and distance. Ironically, I think Mixon offers more as a receiver because of his open field prowess and speed. But he's a confused rabbit in trenches. Mixon reminds me of Theo Riddick, although more of a man.

I think Marvin and the Bengals really like Bernard as a person and player. However, they have always felt he isn't big enough to stand up to a full-time load and is more of a change-of-pace guy.

Marvin was an assistant with Pitt for a while with Bettis and in Baltimore with Jamal Lewis. He has always seemed to buy into the idea that you need a big, powerful back to compete in the AFC North. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I haven't looked at the splits or success rate for the two RB on the Bengals last year. I was just speculating that these are contributing factors and hinting at those are things someone could look up and share, as I didn't have time to at that moment.

Here is the success rate. 41% for Mixon 40% for Bernard. Pretty even. I was actually expecting Bernard to be better than Mixon here. He wasn't.

Bernard had 15% of his runs on 3rd or 4th down. 68.6% of his runs were when the Bengals needed 10 or more yards for a 1st down. He averaged 5.1 ypc on first and 10 to go and 60.1% of his total yardage was gained on 1st and 10 situations. 12.5% of his yards were gained on 3rd downs. Bernard struggled on the 12 carries he had when the Bengals needed 3 yards or less to get a 1st down only having 1.8 ypc on these runs.

Mixon had 3% of his runs on 3rd or 4th down. 70.2% of his runs were when the Bengals needed 10 or more yards for a 1st down. He averaged 3.3 ypc on first and 10 to go and 52.4% of his total yardage was gained on 1st and 10 situations. 5.5% of his yards were gained on 3rd downs. Mixon struggled on the 20 carries he had when the Bengals needed 3 yards or less to get a 1st down only having 2.6 ypc on these runs.

Somewhat strange that Mixon had his best ypc on downs where the Bengals needed 4-6 yards for a first down. He was below average otherwise.

All of that adds up to the not very good success rate from FBO. Which may point more towards the offensive line than anything else. Bernard had 49% success rate in 2015 which is pretty good.

The splits actually show that Bernard was a more effective RB on 1st and 10 situations than Mixon or on just 1st downs in general. 5.1 ypc on 55 1st down runs for Bernard 3,3 ypc for Mixon on his 107 attempts. It seems like the Bengals would have been better off having Bernard handle 1st downs and get the volume Mixon had instead of the other way around.

I agree with you that Bernard can run inside or outside. In my view he is a complete RB. However Marvin Lewis does not seem to see it this way as evidenced by the picks of Hill and MIxon despite already having Bernard.

At least Hill had a better success rate than Mixon did, which again may point towards the offensive line being better when Hill was playing for them.

Outstanding

 

[King of the Jungle]

When David Johnson came out the big negative was his inside running and vision. Not saying Mixon is DJ, but they do share some of the same physical capalibilties and strengths. If the oline can improve along with offensive efficiency, I believe Mixon has a chance to be very productive with a good amount of upside.

 

[Milkman]

Wouldn't that be worse than saying he's a top 10 dynasty RB? Saying he's a top 10 dynasty player means you have him top 10 among all positions? That's pretty bold. Not sure I'd agree there. I don't see Mixon as a top 10 pick in a dynasty re-draft. Especially when I can name 10 RBs I'd rather have over Mixon in dynasty. 

That being said, I do like Mixon. I don't think last year comes as a surprise. He was in a crowded backfield. Many of his critics were right. I forget who it was earlier in this thread (probably bia or chaka or freebagel... on of those people that always offers awesome insight), but they said that when you saw how Mixon ran when he did get the ball- bounce to the outside etc, that he didn't feel it would be a good translation into his NFL game. And I think that showed to some degree. But it's too early to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Mixon is only 21 years old. People are falling over themselves inthe Chubb thread and he's a whole 18 months older than Mixon. Mixon has 2 more years, IMO, to figure out his game

Mixon needs time and still may end up being a very very good RB. He could still be the best from this class, however early indications are pointing toward Hunt and possibly Cook depending how he comes back. Maybe even Kamara. (FTR I do not think Fournette holds up long term. Ankles are a concern for me). 

I think Mixon is a decent buy just as much as he is a sell. Many people are still really excited about him and may pay more than his 2017 stats should bring. Likewise, he may not get better. Jury is still out. I see Chubb's 2018 outlook similar to Mixon. I think next year this time Chubb would be a very good buy. 
FWIW I am trying to buy Mixon in my league but I can't seem to get his owner to respond, or he's not interested. 

I like to share who I'm high on that I think is undervalued before they hit. Mixon is one of those guys for me this year. 

 

[electric Ape]

I agree with lots of the takes in this thread, particularly that Mixon is not a flawless talent and that Gio is an underrated and underused player. On the flipside though, a lot of the analysis in here strikes me as more end of season stats-based than tape-based and I think that might be causing some flawed conclusions.

The reality of watching the Bengals running game last year was that it was a tale of 3 seasons. With each third of the season the o line got better and Mixon got better and more decisive.  The first third of the season other than the GB game was a complete grease fire. You had unblocked defenders deep in the backfield and you had Mixon looking overwhelmed and hesitant. But game by game things got better and Mixon got better particularly in terms of reading plays and pivoting between physical running and a more patient style. By the final third of the season the Bengals run blocking actually looked average which is a quantum leap from how it looked when the season started.

I see pretty much everyone in this thread saying that Gio outperformed Mixon last season. I’m not so sure that’s an accurate take. He did week 1 for sure where Mixon looked like a lost rookie but if I have to choose one player’s tape for the whole season it’s close but I think I’m taking Mixon’s. Gio’s stats are better but he got 70% of his carries in the last 5 games when the offense was playing much better whereas Mixon missed a lot of time in those game due to a concussion then ankle injury. I don’t know, maybe I’m projecting too much but like Milkman said, Mixon put a few plays on tape last year that looked rare and special to me and his best game is just on a different level than Gio’s to my eye.

To me Mixon is the kind of RB you target.  Young and rapidly improving?  Check.  Offensive line improving?  Check.  Can play in any game script?  Check.  Elite physical talent?  Check.  Left a bad taste in owners mouths last season? Check.

Even though he’s not a perfect prospect and he has a ways to go I’m willing to gamble on him.

 

[Interseptopus]

I like to share who I'm high on that I think is undervalued before they hit. Mixon is one of those guys for me this year. 

I would agree. I think this may be a year he shines. 

interestingly, if he were to fail this year and next year, hes still hitting FA at the age of 23... same age that some rookies are entering today. if Cincinnati kills his value due to surrounding talent issues, play calling, OL, whatever and he is able to latch on somewhere else that is able to use him better... hes still very young. 

lots to like about him in dynasty even worst case scenario. but I do agree... I think he comes into his own this year

 

[Tau837]

The reality of watching the Bengals running game last year was that it was a tale of 3 seasons

Weeks 11-17:

Mixon (5 games):

• 71/306/1 (4.3 ypc) and 13 first downs (including TD) rushing
  
• 9/80/0 (8.9 ypr) and 2 first downs receiving on 11 targets
  

Bernard (7 games):

• 77/345/2 (4.5 ypc) and 16 first downs (including TDs) rushing
  
• 26/192/0 (7.4 ypr) and 9 first downs receiving on 35 targets
  

Hard to draw a lot of conclusions here. Mixon was featured in 3 games (18+ carries) in weeks 11, 12, and 17. He had 7 carries in week 13, missed weeks 14-15, and had 3 carries in week 16.

So there is no doubt that Bernard got most of his work on the season in that 4 game stretch when Mixon wasn't healthy (61/105 carries and 23/60 targets)... but there is also no doubt that he performed well during that stretch... and that was despite playing @MIN in 1 of the 2 games Mixon missed.

 

[Milkman]

I would agree. I think this may be a year he shines. 

interestingly, if he were to fail this year and next year, hes still hitting FA at the age of 23... same age that some rookies are entering today. if Cincinnati kills his value due to surrounding talent issues, play calling, OL, whatever and he is able to latch on somewhere else that is able to use him better... hes still very young. 

lots to like about him in dynasty even worst case scenario. but I do agree... I think he comes into his own this year

He flashes in his tape last year for me. I can't get him in either of my dynasty leagues (I tried) so I'm happy to share the knowledge here now. Hopefully some people in here jump on him and I end up being right so it pays off for them.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

He doesn't dominate touches and play at a high level, I'm jumping ship. You got one year, Mixon.

 

[cloppbeast]

I like to share who I'm high on that I think is undervalued before they hit. Mixon is one of those guys for me this year. 

Do you often buy on guys with tons of hype who haven't done much, paying late 2nd round start up prices for them?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Mixon is apparently looking great in first day of camp.  Looks like they will be using him as a receiving back a lot as well.  I'm not a dynasty guy so I can't comment on much there---but I'm really liking his outlook in ppr redraft more and more.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonSaho/status/1006655328337973248?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

[jvdesigns2002]

More positive outlook for Mixon. Sounds like Lazor is going to give him every opportunity to show off his talents.  God--I'm starting to feel like I am to Mixon what Soulfly is to J. Gordon--but I assure you that this is not the case. 

https://stripehype.com/2018/06/15/joe-mixon-will-everything-bengals-2018/