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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well crap I'll eat my crow here. I did get the 1.03 back in return and some QB depth that I needed inseason. I'd rather have Taylor, though. But, I need another stud WR more than I need another stud RB and I'll likely come out ahead from a roster POV, even though I'm acknowledging I sold early. If I wasn't already stacked at RB I wouldn't have even considered it.
I'm also publicly changing my call from the "Would you rather" post that @socrates had on Robinson vs Taylor. I *do* think Robinson is special and that it is close to a coinflip, but no I would go Taylor here. Even though I said otherwise before. Also said that I like a Trevor Lawrence JAX offense better than a post-Rivers IND offense, and I probably stand by that but I can't deny Taylor looks awesome. If there was a corner turned, he turned it.
I'm also publicly changing my call from the "Would you rather" post that @socrates had on Robinson vs Taylor. I *do* think Robinson is special and that it is close to a coinflip, but no I would go Taylor here. Even though I said otherwise before. Also said that I like a Trevor Lawrence JAX offense better than a post-Rivers IND offense, and I probably stand by that but I can't deny Taylor looks awesome. If there was a corner turned, he turned it.
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socrates
Footballguy
We have certainly all eaten crow many times lol. I actually included that specific comparison (Robinson vs. Taylor) in part because back in November, I traded away Robinson to acquire Taylor in my dynasty league. I had about an equal number of those supporting the move as opposing it. In fairness, for those who play in redraft leagues, player values are different; trends are more significant. I would suppose some of those who were offering their opinions at the time were being influenced by redraft valuation. Even now, while I would undoubtedly favor Taylor, the gap is not really so wide. Robinson has significant value of his own. As you say, a Trevor Lawrence-led offense has some nice potential, and it is uncertain who will be leading the Indy offense.
Part of the goal with the "Would you Rather" polls is to look back next season, and even beyond, and re-evaluate. The point of the exercise isn't to point out anyone's failed predictions or take a victory lap for any correct predictions, but I am always looking for trends we can learn from. Sometimes, the things which we feel quite certain about one season (or even one week), become much less certain in short order, and, as a dynasty manager, I am always seeking to gain any advantage.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would think so since the coaches were giving him the ball and more offensive snaps towards the end of the season, which is something I think they should have been doing from jump street.
Here is a split to consider. Prior to the game Taylor missed due to Covid he averaged 45% of the offensive snaps. After that missed game Taylor played on 62% of the snaps.
Ergo if Taylor plays 62% of the snaps or more per game for the 2021 season he should get the ball more and produce more points for fantasy and it looks like he will.
The author does make a fair point about Rivers throwing it to RB more than most QB but that is not the way that Taylor produced most of his points anyways as he only averaged 2 targets per game. Regardless of the QB I would hope that increases at least a little bit. Taylor had a 92% catch rate on his opportunities, so why not more of them?
Of course Wentz might just bring the whole team down and that would not be good for Taylor.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Fitzpatrick goes to Washington and everyone is excited. Hurts starting for the eagles behind the same crappy offensive line and he’s projected in the top 10 by some. Wentz goes to a loaded Colts team and he could bring them all down. I don’t get it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not very optimistic about Hurts or the Eagles either.
Fitzmagic is always exciting for fantasy.
Wentz was terrible last season. What is so hard to understand about that? Maybe he plays better for Reich maybe he just isn't good. I am not sure which is the case but I am leaning toward him not being good.
eta - When I say Wentz was terrible I mean that he completed less than 60% of his passes he threw almost as many interceptions as TD and his QBR was very bad. Basically any metric you might look at shows he played bad and much worse than he had played since his rookie season.
Now perhaps the offensive line play had an effect on Wentz last year. He was sacked 50 trimes which is 10 more than he had been sacked in previous seasons. The Colts have a good offensive line so maybe that helps him play like his former self again?
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
The eagles couldn’t block a high school D-line last year. He was under a ton of pressure all the time. The colts are much better, and I think Reich is a great coach. He has a better line, netter run game, and better wrs. He was a MVP candidate before his injury, playing for frank reich. He could stink, but I’m not going to ignore how bad the line was last year or discount his previous success.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well we will see.
What I saw from Wentz last year was a guy with crappy mechanics he throws from too wide of a platform and it makes him very inaccurate. He also holds the ball too long, I think he has always done that. He needs a clean pocket. He isn't a anticipation thrower.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
He plays hero ball, possibly attributed in part to his insecurities as a result of Foles’ success. Last year was hero ball, with terrible mechanics behind a terrible line with terrible WRs resulting in a disaster. Maybe Reich can coach the hero ball thing out of him.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep, he definitely has gotten into a bad habit of treating every play like it's 4th and 10, down 7 with a minute left.
It's interesting to me that the narrative around David Montgomery is that he took advantage of poor defenses in the second half of the season and we should be skeptical as a result (FYI, I own zero shares of Montgomery) but we don't hear anything similar about Taylor. He put up 30/250/2 in a week 17 home game against the Jaguars where the Colts had a ton at stake (a playoff spot, to be exact) and the Jaguars had absolutely nothing to play for. I know Taylor carried many owners to championships in the fantasy playoffs. This is who he played in the last 5 weeks, along with their rank against the run (average rushing yards allowed per game) --
HOU #32 13/91/0, 3/44/1
LVR #24 20/150/2, 2/15/0
HOU #32 16/83/1, 4/12/0
PIT #11 18/74/2, 0/0/0
JAX #30 30/253/2, 1/1/0
On the season, he went over 100 yards 3 times - against the Vikings (#27 against the run), Raiders, and the aforementioned game against the Jaguars. He had 8 games under 70 yards rushing.
Fortunately for Taylor, the AFC South is light against the run, and he gets the Jaguars and Texans twice each again. But he also gets the Rams, Bucs, 49ers, and Seahawks, among others.
It's not say that Taylor isn't very talented or that he won't continue to rack of touchdowns in bunches but I don't see him as having the upside of other backs taken in the middle to end of the first. I don't necessarily think that Marlon Mack will steal meaningful carries from him, which I've heard here and there, although Reich will sometimes ride the hot hand at RB. But I do have real concerns about how prolific of a pass catcher he'll be. Rivers has always been excellent at dumping off to his backs, partially because he was a statue. That's not Wentz's game, however. For better or worse, he tends to look for the intermediate to deep routes. Unless Reich can rewire him, I don't think he'll check down to his backs nearly as often as Rivers did. And, when he does, I think they'll likely be in situations where Hines is on the field.
Again, Taylor is very talented and he's running behind an excellent line. I think he's a solid bet for double digit TD's, despite the fact that Wentz will likely steal 3-5 TD's this year. But I'm surprised to see him going as early as 6 or 7 and rarely after #10. I can't see taking him in front of someone like Nick Chubb.
HOU #32 13/91/0, 3/44/1
LVR #24 20/150/2, 2/15/0
HOU #32 16/83/1, 4/12/0
PIT #11 18/74/2, 0/0/0
JAX #30 30/253/2, 1/1/0
On the season, he went over 100 yards 3 times - against the Vikings (#27 against the run), Raiders, and the aforementioned game against the Jaguars. He had 8 games under 70 yards rushing.
Fortunately for Taylor, the AFC South is light against the run, and he gets the Jaguars and Texans twice each again. But he also gets the Rams, Bucs, 49ers, and Seahawks, among others.
It's not say that Taylor isn't very talented or that he won't continue to rack of touchdowns in bunches but I don't see him as having the upside of other backs taken in the middle to end of the first. I don't necessarily think that Marlon Mack will steal meaningful carries from him, which I've heard here and there, although Reich will sometimes ride the hot hand at RB. But I do have real concerns about how prolific of a pass catcher he'll be. Rivers has always been excellent at dumping off to his backs, partially because he was a statue. That's not Wentz's game, however. For better or worse, he tends to look for the intermediate to deep routes. Unless Reich can rewire him, I don't think he'll check down to his backs nearly as often as Rivers did. And, when he does, I think they'll likely be in situations where Hines is on the field.
Again, Taylor is very talented and he's running behind an excellent line. I think he's a solid bet for double digit TD's, despite the fact that Wentz will likely steal 3-5 TD's this year. But I'm surprised to see him going as early as 6 or 7 and rarely after #10. I can't see taking him in front of someone like Nick Chubb.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I dunno I think its somewhat apples to oranges as far as Taylor vs Montgomery goes.
For one Montgomery had a not so great rookie season, in comparison to Taylor.
Montgomerys value last season was in large part because of how he was used as a receiver, which is something the Bears were not doing with him in his rookie year, and they might not do as much with him this year, because of Tarik Cohen being back healthy, meanwhile Taylors role in the offense looks to be expanding based on the coach saying he has earned the right to be their feature RB based on his play last season.
As far as the SOS Im not concerned about that. The game vs the Steelers, one of the better defenses in the league was difficult but he still scored 2 TD.
No QB throws to their RBs as much as Rivers has been. Hard to say how Wentz may affect Taylors opportunity by comparison. Even though RIvers was washed up, I don't know that Wentz will be better than Rivers was.
For one Montgomery had a not so great rookie season, in comparison to Taylor.
Montgomerys value last season was in large part because of how he was used as a receiver, which is something the Bears were not doing with him in his rookie year, and they might not do as much with him this year, because of Tarik Cohen being back healthy, meanwhile Taylors role in the offense looks to be expanding based on the coach saying he has earned the right to be their feature RB based on his play last season.
As far as the SOS Im not concerned about that. The game vs the Steelers, one of the better defenses in the league was difficult but he still scored 2 TD.
No QB throws to their RBs as much as Rivers has been. Hard to say how Wentz may affect Taylors opportunity by comparison. Even though RIvers was washed up, I don't know that Wentz will be better than Rivers was.
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Colts: Should Jonathan Taylor’s struggles against top defenses be a concern? (FanSided article with autoplay video)
-jb-
Footballguy
I’ve seen this argued both ways. I personally don’t see it helping Taylor as they’re just gonna dare Eason to throw it by stacking the box. I’d say slight downgrade to Taylor. But I’m a moron, so
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I stopped reading when they informed me Marlon Mack is coming back from season ending ACL surgery.
Or maybe the staff realized Taylor deserved it and good things happened when he got the ball more. Would go along with them saying this off season who has earned it and will see the bulk of the carries. Perhaps WHO he played was just coincidence. ??
jm192
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
No, the owners will hold out. Nelson may even be ready by week 1. Dynasty owners shouldn't discount him at all.
In redraft, I think he would drop a few slots, but not much.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Can someone help me unpack this nugget from the following ESPN article today?
"What to know for fantasy: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has a touchdown -- or the fantasy equivalent of a touchdown (six points) -- as a pass-catcher in each of his past seven games."
Shocked me. Didn't realize he had been that involved as a receiver, so I took a quick look.
"What to know for fantasy: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has a touchdown -- or the fantasy equivalent of a touchdown (six points) -- as a pass-catcher in each of his past seven games."
Shocked me. Didn't realize he had been that involved as a receiver, so I took a quick look.
- 2021 (Week 1) -- 6 catches for 60 yards, 0 TDs (check, that's six points standard or 12 points in ppr)
- 2021 (Wildcard game) -- 2 catches for 6 yards, 0 TDs (2.6 < 6...one nope)
- 2021 (Week 17) -- 1 catch for 1 yard, 0 TDs (pretty sure 1.1 points is a second nope)
- 2021 (Week 16) -- 0 catches for 0 yards (quite a bit less than 6 points, so there's a third nope)
- 2021 (Week 15) -- 4 catches for 12 yards, 0 TDs (5.2! close! but make that four consecutive nopes)
- 2021 (Week 14) -- 2 catches for 14 yards, 0 TDs (Nope City for five straight)
Chaka
Footballguy
I think it is just bad writing. He had TDs in each of his last 5 games in 2020 (only one was a receiving TD) and 6 catches last week.
I am not sure why the article was worded that way other than the fact that ESPN is the McDonald's of sports analysis, lots of people served but very little substance to each serving.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Is he not good? They got away from him again, this time nothing in the receiving department. He got stuffed so many times at the goal line but don’t think it was his fault,
either way, for a top dynasty asset today’s Performance was upsetting
either way, for a top dynasty asset today’s Performance was upsetting
floods
Footballguy
Not sure why you run three dives on the goal line against that Rams DL when the Indy OL wasn't getting any push.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I saw a headline, paraphrasing, that he leads the league in touches inside the 20.
It's been two weeks - bad luck so far. Totally different conversation if he has 2 TDs, isn't it?
It's been two weeks - bad luck so far. Totally different conversation if he has 2 TDs, isn't it?
