Zyphros
Footballguy
I think he would have initially been considered near the Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Kerryon Johnson group yeah, but after the combine, he'd clearly be behind them.
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RB Josh Jacobs, GB (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
I think I posted this earlier and just one person's opinion but I posed this question to Dane Brugler in a chat a few weeks ago and he said second to Barkley. He'd have been third for me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have pre NFL draft rankings from 2018 and 2017 where I ranked players in 5 different tiers. I am very close to done with ranking players for 2019 (because I am out of time).
For RB this looks like this:
Tier 11
Sanquon Barkley
Tier one
Dalvin Cook
Christian McCaffrey
Leonard Fournette
Derrius Guice
Darrell Henderson
Tier 2a (player could rise to tier one with high draft position)
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Rashaad Penny
Royce Freeman
Ronald Jones
Sony Michel
Josh Jacobs
Rodney Anderson
Tier 2b (Player stays tier two regardless of draft)
Alvin Kamara
Kareem Hunt
Damien Harris
Miles Sanders
Samaje Perine
D'Onta Foreman
Marlon Mack
Justice Hill
Bryce Love
Obviously I was wrong on Kamara and Hunt under estimating their upside. I made some adjustment on this post draft because of their good situations, but not enough (tier two) which didn't last long as both started producing like tier one RB almost right away.
I do have rankings from prior to this, but I wasn't doing the 2a and 2b tiers before then.
eta - I didn't have Nick Chubb on my pre NFL draft list for some reason. But he was tier 2a always had him ranked ahead of Freeman.
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I think that Jacobs ends up in GB (12), Buffalo (13), or Atlanta (14).
Call me crazy but I could see any of those teams pulling the trigger or having another squad trade into that slot. Jacobs is rising that fast. I don't think he gets past the 14th pick.
JJ could even go to TB at #6. Arians loves backs that fit JJ's skill set...don't rule that totally out even though TB needs defense.
Call me crazy but I could see any of those teams pulling the trigger or having another squad trade into that slot. Jacobs is rising that fast. I don't think he gets past the 14th pick.
JJ could even go to TB at #6. Arians loves backs that fit JJ's skill set...don't rule that totally out even though TB needs defense.
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Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Bills have pick 9. Although I don’t think I would mind Jacobs at pick 40, I highly doubt the Bills take him at 9. Way too many needs at other positions.
I also know this doesn’t mean much, but Bills also just signed Yeldon. So it puts taking a RB at 9 even more unlikely.
If Jacobs lands at #40 to Buffalo, you should be the happiest guy in western New York. That would be an absolute steal.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
No way. Name the last RB with such limited production who went in the top 15 of the NFL draft.
Jacobs will be lucky to get drafted in round 1. OAK who is ran by dumb and dumber might do it, but highly doubt any other teams will take him day 1.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTRxD8YU8AEpqlN.jpg
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
GB- They have more needs than RB. Gute flat out said he wants Jones on the field more. I actually dont think they go rb at all unless its round 5 or later
Buffalo- they just signed Yeldon. Why sign him a few days before the draft just to draft over him?
Atlanta- I dont see it happening the first round. If Jacobs falls to round 2 I could see ATL taking him.
TB- possible, but again I dont see them reaching round 1 when there is a decent chance he is there round 2
I do think he goes round 1, but you named the 3 teams that are on my absolutely not list.
I absolutely disagree about him going top 15. I think the highest he goes is to Baltimore at 22. 22-27 is where I see him going
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I remember Buffalo drafting Donte Whitner #7 overall when no mock had him going earlier than 30 or so. And GB's front office is new so they are a wildcard.
Not saying it's likely, but an outside possibility. Every year the draft has a few crazy picks relative to what everyone was projecting.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why sign Carlos Hyde to a contract much larger than Yeldon's just to draft Nick Chubb over him? Why sign Mike Glennon to a really big contract just to trade up to #2 to draft another QB over him?
LaGarrette Blount, Latavius Murray, and DeMarco Murray are just a few guys that signed deals that were probably larger than Yeldon's within the last few years and then saw a RB taken early by their team regardless.
I doubt very much that Buffalo takes Jacobs, but TJ Yeldon won't have anything to do with it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I just figured Buffalo has 3 RBs and likely isn't in the market for a fourth. Gore and Yeldon arent super stars, but drafting a fourth rb likely pushes one of them off. which sure its happened I guess.
I could absolutely be wrong (hardly the first, and certainly not the last, time) but am standing by my prediction.
Jacobs is electric, could have a Kamara-like impact on the right team. Don't be fooled by the lack of usage, this guy is the real deal. Somebody will jump to draft this guy.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
How about lack of athleticism, durability, 100 yd games, 1000 yd seasons, ability to be judged by Nick mf’n Saban as the #1 RB?
Alvin Kamara had a 14% target share his final season... more than most any two backs in this class combined. Jacobs: 4%
Ludicrous comparison. If you said slower Chris Carson with hands... I’d say ok, that’s fair for upside.
College production, in and of itself, is not an essential determinant of NFL production. Alabama has plenty of NFL caliber RB talent, so I'm not worried about splitting time, nor about a lack of putting up significant statistical accomplishments. He pops out on tape for me, plays fast, and has a skill set that translates well. I think he will have an excellent career and think he starts on day #1 and puts up really good numbers.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
People did the same thing with Kamara. "Never got x carries; couldn't start ahead of Hurd; split carries with Kelly; poor SPARQ; 40 time..."
It's about identifying traits and projecting how they'll translate to the next level. The rest is noise.
Do you question his receiving ability? If not, why bring up target share? Do you really question whether he could have put up 1,000 yards in a less crowded backfield? Or 100 yards on more carries?
His athletic profile is a valid concern, but it doesn't sound like it scared teams off. We'll find out in a couple days.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Kamara got drafted in the 3rd round. His limited production added risk and it was reflected in his draft position.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
But none of the arbitrary benchmarks prevented him from doing what he has. Teams missed on Kamara, and pehaps in correcting for that they'll take a longer look at Jacobs.
I just don't see value in the arbitrary benchmarks. Jacobs played in the same backfield as Damien Harris, arguably the 2nd best back in the class, and Najee Harris, a 5 star recruit and likely day 2 draft pick. His production totals make sense in that context.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Jacobs might end up great like Kamara. All i'm saying is that he carries a high risk and isn't worth a 1st round NFL draft pick.
I looked back at drafts. No RB's with such limited production in college get drafted in the 1st round.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My point is that had he gone to Florida, to pick another SEC school, he'd have met all of these benchmarks; yet he'd be the same guy.ILUVBEER99 said:
If the scouts have enough to make a solid projection, what else matters? Based on the information we have, it sounds like they do. We'll see.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
we have no idea what he would have done if he went to another college. All we know is that he was sparingly used.
what scouts? The media "scouts"? The only team who might take him in the 1st round are the Raiders...who are now ran by a media scout.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Your argument is that he won't get drafted in the first round (unless the Raiders reach). We'll see soon enough (unless the Raiders draft him).
My argument is that the arbitrary benchmarks don't matter. There's enough there to make a projection.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Jacobs has nowhere near the talent to go in the early first. It would take a serious incompetence for one of those teams to pick an RB from this class that early. Looking at those teams... Can't rule that out for Buffalo or Green Bay I suppose...
If he did have this sort of early first round interest before, his pro day surely should have removed that shine.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The NFL is an ever evolving league, and when someone comes into the NFL and bucks a trend other teams tend to try and copy it.ILUVBEER99 said:
You could once say the same thing about WRs under a certain size, QBs under a certain height, RBs under a certain weight, running QBs under a certain completion percentage, etc. Then someone came in and excelled in spite of those things and all of the sudden those things were no longer a dealbreaker against being drafted early.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
maybe this will start a trend of college teams not playing their best players. I guess if it helps their draft position to not play much in college it could become the new trend.
Usually elite talents dominate college as their coaches want to play their best players and win.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good NFL players aren't always the best on their own team in college, or aren't always discovered as such. It's fairly rare, but not exactly new. Chad Johnson could barely crack the starting lineup in college and it's not like he on a team full of 5 star recruits like Jacobs.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Exactly. i won't be shocked if Jacobs ends up good, but the risks of drafting a guy with such limited production are high. Guys like Chad Johnson went much later in the draft. His risks were baked into his draft position.
Betting on what could be an exception in the 1st round is suicide long term.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
But is anybody doing that? Most rookie drafts aren't until after the NFL draft. I mean I'm not putting any chips down yet. If he falls in the draft, that will greatly influence my betting action.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Chad Johnson was an early 2nd round pick (4th pick in the 2nd round) despite having only 37 career college receptions. Not at all far off from where Jacobs is being projected.
I believe he's talking about NFL teams using a 1st round pick on him, not fantasy owners.
ZWK
Footballguy
Chad Johnson started at a junior college, and then had 1 year at Oregon State where he was the team's leading receiver (37/806/8, 29% market share of rec yards, 40% market share of rec TDs). So it was more like a Kevin White or Cordarrelle Patterson career path than a Josh Jacobs career path.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
College production is the essential determinant to predictive analysis. Just because the same thing was said about Alvin Kamara doesn’t make him Alvin Kamara. Nor does it make him Preist Holmes, Arian Foster, Chris Carson, Willie Parker or any other outlier RB that has had success in the NFL. I can just as easily compare him to the thousands upon thousands of undrafted, statistical low quality and production low quality backs that have entered the NFL. From a pure profile view he isn’t that much different to a Jarvion Franklin. Do I go and make outlandish statements comparing him as such though? He is what he is: an outlier with a rubbish profile that’s going to go to high for what he’s accomplished and his success will be tied to his draft capital (high investment, means many, many more chances than any UDFA to succeed), his OLine, his QB and his health. Nothing more or less. Even Kamara is amplified by having Drew Brees in Sean Payton’s offense with an emphasis on great OLine play.Ack88 said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
College production is the essential determinant to predictive analysis according to who? Plenty of extremely productive college players go late or undrafted.
Nobody said Jacobs is going to be Alvin Kamara because Kamara had a similar production profile.
We get that you don’t like him - that’s cool. But there’s a reason he’s the consensus top back in the class, ahead of others who started and saw more touches and production.
Agreed. If production was THE essential determinant not sure what scouting departments are doing all year when they could just go grab the Donnell Pumphrey's of the world in round one.
I actually applaud people for thinking for themselves and not buying into the Jacobs hype. I just wish those people would say it's because he sucks and not throw out disclaimers like "he could be good" or if he's good it's essentially the supporting cast. If you want to take a stance and go against the grain I'm all for it, but hot takes with conditional outs are not so hot to me.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
There really isn’t a reason. I’ve yet to hear of one. Ambiguous terms like vision and power. Graham Barfield is the closest to come up with legitimate and quantifiable reasons he thinks Josh Jacobs is the top back. I find myself scrutinizing those reasons as his high success percentage is amplified by his limited usage which happened for a reason that people have no answer for.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
So you expect people to paint themselves into a corner? Who is to say I wouldn’t take Jacobs at the right price? Do you think I don’t value the RB situation in KC, TB, HOU regardless of which back is there? Do you think a back with no production all throughout college and the pros, like Damien Williams, can’t produce in those offenses?
I don’t understand what I’m saying that turns people up. I didn’t whoafully underproduce in college behind two backs, he did. I didn’t amp him up amongst top NFL backs like Nick Chubb, NFL talking heads like Daniel Jeremiah did. I don’t hate the guy because I view him more appropriately as a situation dependent, high risk back. I hate his perceived value.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
You hate how Jeremiah values him.
Seems to me folks around here are pretty clear/level headed about who he is as a prospect. I think you're arguing with straw men in this thread.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
That may be a fair statement. I definitely do not like the Jeremiah/Bruglar hype train.
Don’t you believe he goes top six in dynasty though? If so I really don’t like him there. The only good thing I’d have to say about it is he may be the only back that also finds himself in a situation worth a damn to walk right into a starting job.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Of course. Because in the 2019 talent pool there probably aren't six other guys that much better than he is.
As an owner of two different #1 picks, I wish it was 2018. But it's not, so I have to select from the players available to me and Jacobs seems like one of them.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
"Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs said he only visited the Ravens, Eagles, and Colts ahead of the 2019 NFL Draft"
Any sense from anyone here on whether other prospects have had more visits than that? Thinking Montgomery, Henderson and Sanders more specifically. And does it matter? Does more visits with more teams equal higher chance of being drafted earlier than not? I'd sort of assume so, but I am admittedly not a draft guru of any kind. I'm sure I could go to these other guys pages and find this out but I am asking here instead.
Any sense from anyone here on whether other prospects have had more visits than that? Thinking Montgomery, Henderson and Sanders more specifically. And does it matter? Does more visits with more teams equal higher chance of being drafted earlier than not? I'd sort of assume so, but I am admittedly not a draft guru of any kind. I'm sure I could go to these other guys pages and find this out but I am asking here instead.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well it's a good thing you don't have to imagine it.
I can certainly understand if someone says they don't want to use a high pick on someone with a poor athletic profiler because it makes them more risky. But to say you can't imagine someone with a poor athletic profiler being a successful running in the NFL is silly when it has been done plenty of times before.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm too lazy to do it for all of the backs, but this shows that Jacobs had 3 official visits and Henderson had 5.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
According to that list...
Montgomery - 1 (and it was the Jets
)Singletary - 3
Sanders - 5
Harris - 3
Also fwiw, that link lists Jacobs with 4 (the Bears being the extra team he didn't mention).
We will agree to disagree on the value of college production as a correlative to professional success. He is not Alvin Kamara, either. NFL GMs, despite making mistakes, are generally very smart people. No "outlier with a rubbish profile" gets drafted at all, let alone on day #1. College accomplishments are one of many components used to evaluate a player; the metric that matters most is how a player's game translates to the NFL level. When you say his success is tied to his o-line, qb, and health- that is also true for any other RB drafted.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
No, it isn’t. Saquan Barkley was damn near the top back in the league despite inferior play all around him. I won’t keep beating the dead horse. Andy is right to call me out. Guys like Daniel Jeremiah are treating Jacobs like Saquon and that, not really you all here looking for a fantasy asset, is what I’m bothered about.
