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RB Kareem Hunt, KC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
joey
Footballguy
12 team, Keep 12 league, 18 man rosters, 2 IR slots.
I own Hunt and I was carrying Ware on IR all year but needed room for Rodgers. I dropped Ware 1.5 weeks ago and he's still sitting on the free agent wire.
Ymmv
Truebluey
Footballguy
Ugh, my head hurts from reading 2 pages of a thread with two guys arguing over whether Hunt is really great, or really, really great.
Give it a rest fellas, you're both in agreement that Hunt is a terrific start in any lineup every week, and WE ALL KNOW THAT!
What we're looking for is more insight into his future development, and things that might hold him back (like rookies lacking conditioning for a long 17-week season).
How do folks think he'll do against Denver on MNF this week?
Give it a rest fellas, you're both in agreement that Hunt is a terrific start in any lineup every week, and WE ALL KNOW THAT!
What we're looking for is more insight into his future development, and things that might hold him back (like rookies lacking conditioning for a long 17-week season).
How do folks think he'll do against Denver on MNF this week?
Dizzy
Footballguy
Hoping for a score. Seems to be due, no?
Chark West's availability/usage may be key this week... anxious to see if the last two weeks has earned Hunt any 3rd down touches.
Anything can happen... expecting 12-15 pts (which includes a TD). Big game would not shock me.
Truebluey
Footballguy
Scoring less and less each game and hasn't sniffed the end zone in 5 games. Has a coach who doesn't know how to use him and an offensive line that can't run block anymore. Wish I would have taken AB for him two games ago when I had a chance. We're a long way removed from his three powerhouse games. Yea, he has a 15 pt floor most games but that's been his ceiling as well the last four games. Would take Gordon or Gurley for him in a heart beat now.
Assumed this would happen but not to this extent. Would think he'll bounce back a bit and land somewhere in between the first few weeks and how he's been lately. But the TD thing is concerning. Next Sunday morning will be 42 days since his last TD.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Keep that phone near your lay-z-boy recliner each Sunday afternoon for the rest of the season, KC might be ringing you up for play calls.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Terrible matchup last night but, yeah, I'm worried about the ever-present decline in production. He was in on a few 3rd downs though but the league has definitely adjusted to him.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Dizzy
Footballguy
The yardage I'm sure is in the range of what most were expecting. I was hoping for a TD. For those that didn't see the game Hunt was wide open on a wheel route and would have walked in for a TD but Alex Smith was looking downfield. Gruden saw it right away and yelled "HE'S OPEN!".oddsbodkins said:
Smith had Hunt wide open on anther scramble in the 4th QTR close to the red zone with room to run but opted to throw the ball away??? Hunt's "oh man" reaction was immediate.
Solid game was there for the taking... just didn't happen for whatever reason.
Tau837
Footballguy
How reasonable is 20 TDs looking now? Some of the predictions that were thrown around after his first few games were ridiculous, as has proven out.He's on pace for way more than 20. So i agree - he won't have 32 scores.
but 20 seems downright reasonable at this point. He hasn't even had as many RZ opportunities as I'd expect him to. 3 of his scores were from midfield or further.
zoonation
Footballguy
he'll be fine. will likely end up with close to 1800 total yards and 10-12 TD's. Those are stud FF numbers. the early season pace was always unsustainable. the fact is the Chief's oline is hurt and can't run block. Also, the D stinks, so the offense is out these much less than it was early season.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
4 games without a TD. I watched all 4. Good defenses, deep scoring, few RZ oppportunities.
I’m a believer in market corrections. And i believe a glut of TDs is coming. But I’m not psychic so I don’t know for sure.
Whats ridiculous is you believing you know what’s coming to such a degree that you’d go back and dig up a month-old post.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly. SInce my late September post, the chief’s OL has been decimated.
I love when people quote old posts as though everything is static and it somehow proves a point.
Might as well go into the D.Adams, Nelson & Cobb topics and say, “see, Jordy Nelson sucks - I told you Jordy Nelson would score less than 10 TDs this year!”
kutta
Footballguy
Well, there were a lot of us who said he couldn’t sustain his early pace and we’d like to see him do it over a longer period of time. And then there were those who said he was worth DJ or Bell in dynasty and he would score 20 TD’s.Exactly. SInce my late September post, the chief’s OL has been decimated.
I love when people quote old posts as though everything is static and it somehow proves a point.
Might as well go into the D.Adams, Nelson & Cobb topics and say, “see, Jordy Nelson sucks - I told you Jordy Nelson would score less than 10 TDs this year!”
So you can make any excuse you want, but he’s been just been pretty OK the last 5 weeks, and we are just waiting for some of the “Hunt is DJ/Bell” folks to at least admit that maybe they jumped the gun in crowning him.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If that was after DJ got injured it might not be that far off the mark. I'd still take DJ but Hunt is younger and has current production so maybe.
But then you have people who actually traded Zeke for him in dynasty. Zeke obviously has some issues but still, that's nuts imo.
kutta
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Nothing is ever static, and that is exactly part of the point. Players get injured, suspended, and/or traded on every team. Small sample size matters, especially as relates to schedule - as it turns out, Hunt had the good fortune to open with 2 of his 3 games against terrible run defenses (NE, LAC). To his credit, he took advantage and dominated them, but over the rest of his games he has been a low end RB1 at best. Still great value for where many got him, no doubt, but a far cry from Zeke/Bell, as many were claiming 5 weeks ago.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fair to say he's not like DJ/Bell were last year, but who is? Even DJ/Bell (and Zeke) aren't this year.
He's still outscoring Bell/Zeke on PPG this year (we'll have to see what DJ looks like next year with his team likely much worse than the last time we saw him play) and they both had one major outlier game to boost their averages just like Hunt did. They've all done it with similar consistency.
35+ point games
Hunt: 1
Bell: 1
Zeke: 1
20-30 point games
Hunt: 2
Bell: 3
Zeke: 2
10-20 point games:
Hunt: 4
Bell: 3
Zeke: 3
Sub 10 point games:
Hunt: 1
Bell: 1
Zeke: 1
After getting banged up the Chiefs' line has gone from a major advantage to a major disadvantage, yet Hunt has still been solid despite being held out of the endzone. We saw Zeke struggle somewhat early this year when his line was banged up as well.
The TDs are flukey. As I posted earlier the Chiefs' receivers have been crazy efficient at finishing their medium/long plays with touchdowns instead of getting tackled inside the 10. That's the kind of thing that will balance out in time and Hunt will get some of those cheapy TDs where a receiver draws pass interference in the end zone or gets tackled inside the 5. Remember a couple of weeks ago the Chiefs had zero plays inside the 10 despite scoring 30+ points. That kind of thing will balance out.
It's not ideal, but I'm not ready to say he can't finish the year in the top tier. Maybe less likely than it was before but he's still on pace overall, and those guys had just as many "OK" games and just as many "down" games as Hunt. Still putting up "OK" weeks with a decimated O-line and no TD opportunities is what top RBs do alongside the yuge weeks where everything breaks right.
All that said, I made the point even after a few weeks that even if he was merely a low RB1 the rest of the year he had such a nice headstart that it would leave him with enough points to finish as a top 3-5 RB at which point his value would be high as a 22 year old RB coming off a RB3-RB5 finish, which is basically what Zeke was last year. He's still on pace to finish with more points than Zeke did last year to give an estimate of what a 22 year old guy with that kind of finish is worth in the offseason.
He's still outscoring Bell/Zeke on PPG this year (we'll have to see what DJ looks like next year with his team likely much worse than the last time we saw him play) and they both had one major outlier game to boost their averages just like Hunt did. They've all done it with similar consistency.
35+ point games
Hunt: 1
Bell: 1
Zeke: 1
20-30 point games
Hunt: 2
Bell: 3
Zeke: 2
10-20 point games:
Hunt: 4
Bell: 3
Zeke: 3
Sub 10 point games:
Hunt: 1
Bell: 1
Zeke: 1
After getting banged up the Chiefs' line has gone from a major advantage to a major disadvantage, yet Hunt has still been solid despite being held out of the endzone. We saw Zeke struggle somewhat early this year when his line was banged up as well.
The TDs are flukey. As I posted earlier the Chiefs' receivers have been crazy efficient at finishing their medium/long plays with touchdowns instead of getting tackled inside the 10. That's the kind of thing that will balance out in time and Hunt will get some of those cheapy TDs where a receiver draws pass interference in the end zone or gets tackled inside the 5. Remember a couple of weeks ago the Chiefs had zero plays inside the 10 despite scoring 30+ points. That kind of thing will balance out.
It's not ideal, but I'm not ready to say he can't finish the year in the top tier. Maybe less likely than it was before but he's still on pace overall, and those guys had just as many "OK" games and just as many "down" games as Hunt. Still putting up "OK" weeks with a decimated O-line and no TD opportunities is what top RBs do alongside the yuge weeks where everything breaks right.
All that said, I made the point even after a few weeks that even if he was merely a low RB1 the rest of the year he had such a nice headstart that it would leave him with enough points to finish as a top 3-5 RB at which point his value would be high as a 22 year old RB coming off a RB3-RB5 finish, which is basically what Zeke was last year. He's still on pace to finish with more points than Zeke did last year to give an estimate of what a 22 year old guy with that kind of finish is worth in the offseason.
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Tau837
Footballguy
He is not outscoring Zeke in PPG in any of my leagues, so not sure where you are getting that. Hunt is #5 in ppg in both of my dynasty leagues, behind Gurley, Elliott, Fournette, and Yeldon. Obviously, Yeldon is a 1 game wonder who will drop off. But Bell is #6 in both of my leagues, and IMO it is reasonable to expect him to surpass Hunt before the season is over - he missed training camp and his worst game was game 1, and Bell's average from week 2 on is higher than Hunt's full season average.
Zeke has had his bye, which Bell and Hunt have not, so citing number of games is not an ideal way to compare. You also ignored Gurley and Fournette, both of whom have been better than Hunt on PPG basis and are contenders for top 5 RB status in both dynasty and redraft.
I don't think anyone else has said that either.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The spread so far is so similar that it doesn't really matter what Zeke does in that extra game. Even if he goes for another 40+ it's still a pretty similar spread between the 3 in terms of how they got their points.
I brought up Bell/Zeke specifically because those were the guys that were mentioned that Hunt was not. But the reality is that if you put their fantasy lines up next to each other they are basically indistinguishable. Basically the same PPG, with basically the same consistency week to week.
You're right though that there is a clear group of 5 at the top this year. A rare deep year a the top for good young RBs, though other guys doing well isn't necessarily a negative for Hunt. His PPG right now this year would have been basically tied for RB3 last year and would have been RB1 in 2015.
I don't value him as highly as I did 3 weeks ago but the difference isn't huge.
flapgreen
Footballguy
#1 in my standard ppg league. Not sure what you're talking about. Just hadn't had a bye yet
Tau837
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I wouldn't put too much stock into that. That move was done by a guy that's pretty sure this is his last year playing FFB, was assuming a Zeke suspension, and wanted to make it happen this year if possible.kutta said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I doubt you'd find many, if any, posts that argued against that.kutta said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I posted some projections based off of the first week or two, but it was meant as a joke.
8 games is a decent sample for projecting his end of season stats from. He currently has 146 rushing attempts 763 rushing yards 4 TD 28 receptions 307 yards 2 TD x 2 =
292 rushing attempts 1526 yards 8 TD 56 repetitions 614 yards 4 TD.
I am guessing that the receiving yards will be more like 400 yards though as one third of his sample size came off of one big reception in he first game. Not neccessarily though as he did have 89 receiving yards against the Steelers as well.
In any case he looks like he will be have around 2k combined yards and 12 TD with over 50 receptions for those in PPR leagues where that matters. 270 points in standard leagues and 310 points in PPR leagues which would be a RB 3 finish last season.
Hunt is still the top scoring RB in standard and PPR formats right now. In PPG he is 5th overall in both formats.
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kutta
Footballguy
When people were saying they wouldnt trade him for DJ pre-injury or Bell, that’s pretty much assuming he’s going to keep up the early pace.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Is it? There is a big difference between a 22 year old RB and a 25/26 year old running back.
Zeke scored fewer ppg last year than hunt is averaging this year and a full 5+ ppg fewer than Bell/DJ but he still went ahead of them in startup drafts this year. It's a point I've been making all along.
kutta
Footballguy
If you throw a 50 point game on to any RB’s total they are going to have a huge average for awhile. He has been pretty pedestrian the last 5 weeks. Those taking Hunt over DJ and Bell are making a big mistake.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Your kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth here in regards to what Hunt has done. 3 of his 6 total TD were in the first game. But he has been consistently productive in every game since then, he just hasn't scored many TD.
I'm not arguing that he should be valued more than David Johnson or LeVeon Bell, but your argument could be very easily applied to them as well. I don't think it is very likely that Johnson scores 20 TD every year or has 80 receptions again in a season. The receptions seem more likely to be something he repeats than the TD in my view because he is such a great receiver.
Still what Johnson did in 2016 is not what I would consider normal or easy for him or any player to repeat, and likely a career year for him.
As for Bell his highest combined TD in a season is 11 in 2014. He has an 83 reception season and a 75 reception season where he only played 12 games. So those high reception numbers have shown themselves to be repeatable with him. Looking at Bells performance from a points per game perspective it is amazing for fantasy football, but he has missed a lot of games.
Do I value these guys over Hunt right now in dynasty formats even though Hunt is younger than them? Yes. But I can see the other perspective as well and I don't think it would be a big mistake for someone to prefer Hunt over them. I do think it could be a mistake, mainly because I want to see more games from Hunt than I have at this point, but I can't even argue that Johnson has more good seasons on his track record than Hunt does, as long as Hunt stays on pace for the rest of this season and has around 2k combined yards by the end of the year. His track record will be similar to Johnson at that point if this happens, although the upside may be a bit lower than Johnsons is.
WIth Bell I can say he has put up great numbers like this in more than one season, although there are a lot of missed games in there that muddies this somewhat as well.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not really, that's you extrapolating. Plus as far as DJ goes that thought was put out there after DJ gets hurt which makes it a huge factor in the analysis.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yep and anything you factor into DJ has to be based on next season since it’s highly unlikely he plays another down this. Next season there’s no guarantee Palmers back and during the season he turns 27 years old. No way I’m taking a 27 year old RB over a lot of guys in a start up.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's absurd logic. That's like saying since I won't sell my house for $250k I think it's worth $800k. It's far more likely I believe it's worth $400k, where the rest of the neighborhood is valued, and prefer it over the house next door since mine was built more recently.
kutta
Footballguy
When I get some more time I will happily go back through this thread to remind you of what some people were saying about Hunt - the guy who is RB 13 in PPG over the last five games.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Sure, be sure to highlight the parts that indicated they were expecting 32 PPG for the rest of the season.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I just can’t help but wonder if you’ve actually seen him play at all or if you just base your judgment on FF pts.
kutta
Footballguy
I think people have a misunderstanding of my position on him. I argued 2 weeks ago with the phrase that he was a “plug and play matchup proof RB1.” I agreed he was very good and a must start every week, but that phrase over stated his value. But even after six weeks of just decent performance, people still value him like a super elite RB. My contention from the beginning was that he was good, but not super elite. Do you disagree?
kutta
Footballguy
How about I highlight the part where people said they would pick him over Zeke, Bell, and DJ in dynasty?
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Sighhhhhhhhhhhhh. Bloom is definitely off the rose here. I doubt the bye week solves anything either. Probably a case of not being able to adjust once the league adjusted to him... which falls on multiple shoulders and not just Hunt's.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
That makes no sense. He's not a QB, he's a RB. They adjusted by learning how to tackle him in the open field, how to penetrate the OL, what? You can adjust to a young QB because usually, they succeed early due to simplified schemes and easy reads. You can figure that out if the QB doesn't develop quickly and allow the OC to open up the offense. That doesn't apply to Hunt, or the RB position really at all.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
At halftime...
Hunt: 3.8 Points
Elliott: 3.9 Points
Hunt: 3.8 Points
Elliott: 3.9 Points
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
How to scheme knowing how the offense goes through him. I don't have the answer, all ll I know is he has absolutely no room to run nor is he as involved in the passing game.
