Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
L he apparently beat hill in a foot race and is one of the fastest, if not the fastest player on the team. Your post is factually incorrect.
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RB Kareem Hunt, KC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
who would have thought Kamara such a stud at this point in the season and Hunt falling so far down after the first 3-4 weeks of the season started
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Shaved that a little at his Pro Day. Hill ran a 4.24 at his Pro Day. HSG said Hunt beat him in a foot race. I remember he was caught from behind on opening night v. the Patriots, but he seems to have decent football speed with pads on & in game - his true speed is somewhere between too slow & elite.
He crashed into the league with three elite games, followed by four solid RB1 games, followed by low end RB2/Flex production, and a WTHWT game. It’s been a linear progression downward, presumably this week was rock bottom. He’s somewhere between LT2 and Steve Slayton.
Chris Harris (Harris Football Podcast) has said all year he’s a good but by no means great RB. Cleary an RB1 but not matchup proof elite. He watches more tape than 99% of FF prognosticators and I trust him. He has also said all year Mixon has RB1 talent but is constantly met in the backfield. Finally broke out yesterday against a good run D - he’s still the same guy, but finally had good blocking.
Will be interesting to see where Hunt gets drafted. I don’t think he’s a top 5 RB but pretty sure that will be the redraft price in 2018.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
KuttaStealthycat said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Good post - man, Steve Slayton to LT2 is quite a range.BobbyLayne said:
he was caught from behind once, and took another ball 50+ for a TD on a ball Smith hit him in stride on a shallow crossing route.
A play mind you that the Chiefs haven’t called since, presumably because it worked too well, and dammit, that’s not Chiefs football.
Cant be scoring TDs. That’s crazy talk.
the “beat Hill in a race” was something someone posted way back in this topic. There was a link, but no video IIRC.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not one of the dynasty guys, but consider this:
• Hunt will likely cost them a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick.
• Ware was losing his job to Hunt already. Him coming back next year (assuming he makes a full recovery) should be little impact on Hunt’s touches.
• Hunt’s declining production has been a byproduct of a decline in the overall production of the Chiefs this year. Looking forward as most dynasty guys tend to do, the Chiefs have an exciting young QB with a big arm who should help the offense in general. And the OL that’s been decimated by injury will no doubt be improved next year through the draft or FA.
• Chiefs are likely to draft or sign a complimentary WR - maybe the Steelers trade Bryant, or the Raiders shop Crabtree. Lots of possibilities there.
So looking ahead I’d say Hunt is a relative bargain as a dynasty hold.
But i’d welcome a counter to that since you clearly see things differently?
kutta
Footballguy
I think the point he’s making is that early in the season people were trading DJ, Bell, Zeke, and Gurley for Hunt. That’s not happening any more. So selling then was probably the best thing to do.
I’m not one of the dynasty guys, but consider this:
• Hunt will likely cost them a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick.
• Ware was losing his job to Hunt already. Him coming back next year (assuming he makes a full recovery) should be little impact on Hunt’s touches.
• Hunt’s declining production has been a byproduct of a decline in the overall production of the Chiefs this year. Looking forward as most dynasty guys tend to do, the Chiefs have an exciting young QB with a big arm who should help the offense in general. And the OL that’s been decimated by injury will no doubt be improved next year through the draft or FA.
• Chiefs are likely to draft or sign a complimentary WR - maybe the Steelers trade Bryant, or the Raiders shop Crabtree. Lots of possibilities there.
So looking ahead I’d say Hunt is a relative bargain as a dynasty hold.
But i’d welcome a counter to that since you clearly see things differently?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
You didn’t even have to jump that quickly. He gave plenty of opportunity to exit. Know my league mates were still valuing him as a top asset right through week 7 when he was riding seven 100 yard games in a row.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If that was his point, then it's not a very constructive one. In fact, it would be a completely worthless "I told you so" bit of snark that this board could completely do without.
And again - if you read my post, selling then probably wasn't the best thing to do. Very few people were getting DJ, Bell, Zeke or Gurley. Some were saying they wouldn't deal him for those players, but I don't remember any trade going through for them that was posted here at the time.
There were true believers and skeptics and not a lot in between. But for his price, and his ability and situation, he's a strong hold.
If someone's point is to be a condescending tool. they should probably find a new hobby. I'm just sayin.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And for Dynasty I don't see why one crap game playing behind his QB's worst game of the year (and arguably one of the worst of his career) would crater his value for 2018 and beyond. That's just ridiculous. He didn't tear both ACLs and suffer a cerebral hemorrhage. He had a bad game. Even the best RBs in the league have bad games. And it's not even like HE had a bad game. The Chiefs offense as a whole was putrid.
Hardly logical to take that to mean they WILL CONTINUE TO BE putrid forever forward.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I'll take the under on him rushing for 172+ or getting 250+ total yards in a game again.
He came out of the blocks on fire, but teams have adjusted. His season stats look impressive as a whole, but it's all front-loaded. Since the first month of the season, he has 116 carries for 388 yards (3.3 YPC). And some of the big plays in the early weeks were just fluky WFO plays against busted defenses.
He came out of the blocks on fire, but teams have adjusted. His season stats look impressive as a whole, but it's all front-loaded. Since the first month of the season, he has 116 carries for 388 yards (3.3 YPC). And some of the big plays in the early weeks were just fluky WFO plays against busted defenses.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Hunt hit the rookie wall in Week 5?
Ignoring that there's no such thing as "the rookie wall" I don't think even the most determined mythologist would suggest it starts in Week 5.
Ignoring that there's no such thing as "the rookie wall" I don't think even the most determined mythologist would suggest it starts in Week 5.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This has been the case all year. I suppose KC has been losing more recently, but Hunts offensive snaps haven't really fallen.needanap said:
Hunts lowest offensive snaps was week 9 against the Cowboys 54% West had 40% of the snaps in that game.
Since then against the Giants Hunt had 67% to Wests 27% then this week against the Bills Hunt had 66% to Wests 28%
Hunts 12 opportunities against the Bills was a new low. The previous low was 14 against Dallas.
saintfool
Dead sexy
this is pretty much my thinking. the whole offense will get overhauled in all likelihood and that should help everyone.
I’m not one of the dynasty guys, but consider this:
• Hunt will likely cost them a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick.
• Ware was losing his job to Hunt already. Him coming back next year (assuming he makes a full recovery) should be little impact on Hunt’s touches.
• Hunt’s declining production has been a byproduct of a decline in the overall production of the Chiefs this year. Looking forward as most dynasty guys tend to do, the Chiefs have an exciting young QB with a big arm who should help the offense in general. And the OL that’s been decimated by injury will no doubt be improved next year through the draft or FA.
• Chiefs are likely to draft or sign a complimentary WR - maybe the Steelers trade Bryant, or the Raiders shop Crabtree. Lots of possibilities there.
So looking ahead I’d say Hunt is a relative bargain as a dynasty hold.
But i’d welcome a counter to that since you clearly see things differently?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I agree with most of this, but as strictly a dynasty player there is no way Hunt will last until the 5th. You will be lucky if he is there in the mid to late 3rd round.
I’m not one of the dynasty guys, but consider this:
• Hunt will likely cost them a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick.
• Ware was losing his job to Hunt already. Him coming back next year (assuming he makes a full recovery) should be little impact on Hunt’s touches.
• Hunt’s declining production has been a byproduct of a decline in the overall production of the Chiefs this year. Looking forward as most dynasty guys tend to do, the Chiefs have an exciting young QB with a big arm who should help the offense in general. And the OL that’s been decimated by injury will no doubt be improved next year through the draft or FA.
• Chiefs are likely to draft or sign a complimentary WR - maybe the Steelers trade Bryant, or the Raiders shop Crabtree. Lots of possibilities there.
So looking ahead I’d say Hunt is a relative bargain as a dynasty hold.
But i’d welcome a counter to that since you clearly see things differently?
Young 8
Footballguy
Maybe you shoud all calm down and just check this article on PFF
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-whats-wrong-with-the-kansas-city-chiefs-offense
While Hunt is still doing all he can, the running lanes just aren’t there. Even since Week 6, Hunt leads the league in broken tackles with 33, and is averaging 2.81 yards per carry after contact, which ranks 10th. Hunt could probably stand to receive a higher workload, but the issue there isn’t that he is hitting a rookie wall, it’s that he is hitting an actual wall of bodies at the line of scrimmage.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-whats-wrong-with-the-kansas-city-chiefs-offense
While Hunt is still doing all he can, the running lanes just aren’t there. Even since Week 6, Hunt leads the league in broken tackles with 33, and is averaging 2.81 yards per carry after contact, which ranks 10th. Hunt could probably stand to receive a higher workload, but the issue there isn’t that he is hitting a rookie wall, it’s that he is hitting an actual wall of bodies at the line of scrimmage.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think you misunderstood. I was referring to teams that had him this year and can retain him for a 5-6-7.
I was responding in that context.
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from Hribar's rotoworld worksheet:
Kareem Hunt has just five touches inside of the 10-yard line since Week 2 and the Chiefs have run just 18 total plays from that area of the field over that span, 30th in the league.
The Chiefs rank 32nd in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (39.8 percent), rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (16.8 percent), rate of runs that result in a first down (27.6 percent) and 29th in rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (18.6 percent).
Kareem Hunt has just five touches inside of the 10-yard line since Week 2 and the Chiefs have run just 18 total plays from that area of the field over that span, 30th in the league.
The Chiefs rank 32nd in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (39.8 percent), rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (16.8 percent), rate of runs that result in a first down (27.6 percent) and 29th in rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (18.6 percent).
Dizzy
Footballguy
Oof! That is #### poor.
Aren't O-lines supposed to get BETTER as the season wears on... that whole "gelling" thing and "cohesive unit" blah blah blah?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Holy crap. Things are dynamic in FF? Thanks, Captain Obvious. So I guess you just have to grandstand and thump your chest in front of everyone because eventually the numbers finally shook out in your direction.
Well, here’s your big pat on the back and acknowledgement that you just seem to need so badly. Will that make you finally stop? I’m doubting it.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I’m hoping this is trolling? You do understand how dynasty leagues work, right? Or do you think that Hunt just isn’t talented enough to be a RB1 in dynasty?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
This is the difference in judging a RB on his talent/ability and judging him on his FF production. Some people here can’t seem to understand that the two are not equivalent measures. I’ve said it before - if you actually watch Hunt and not just look at FF box scores, you see a RB who is special. It’s really difficult to deny that, and these kinds of stats just bear that out.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's not exactly a dynasty format which is probably why he misinterpreted. Most dynasty leagues just auto-keep their players with no draft cost. After the initial season the draft is generally rookies only with a few leagues including waiver wire guys. So when you say "cost you a _____ round" most dynasty guys equate that to startup draft value. I know I did and I thought you were nuts too
What you're describing here is a common option in keeper leagues that a guy may cost you a pick (or earlier) where you originally drafted the guy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ok, cool. So keeper value.That's not exactly a dynasty format which is probably why he misinterpreted. Most dynasty leagues just auto-keep their players with no draft cost. After the initial season the draft is generally rookies only with a few leagues including waiver wire guys. So when you say "cost you a _____ round" most dynasty guys equate that to startup draft value. I know I did and I thought you were nuts too
What you're describing here is a common option in keeper leagues that a guy may cost you a pick (or earlier) where you originally drafted the guy.
But (and this is important) in the context of the discussion I was responding to, where someone said “I bet you dynasty guys wish you’d sold after week 1”, it would seem the implication was that they’d already drafted him.
and nothing whatever to do with the 2018 draft.
Sometimes following a discussion helps to participate in it. Also helps to avoid confusion or thinking people are nuts when in fact you don’t understand the context.
in context my post made perfect sense, regardless of hair splitting over keeper vs dynasty.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Right, but the statement was more about the potential price Hunt would have drawn at that time. Dynasty is all about growing value. There's some hyperbole in his comment obviously, but talk at the time is that people were being offered EZE for him. That's patently absurd. Here are trades that were made during that time:
DJ (after IR)
Bell in a multi-player
EZE PLUS a pick!
Both ATL RB's plus a 1st
Haul in a superflex including Darnold and a 1st
I have Hunt in two leagues. Yes, I wish I was able to get that kind of value after week 1.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Probably would have been a good idea.
but that said, I still believe he’s a good hold.
Time will tell.
I do think it’s important to keep focused on Hunt’s actual value vs what naysayers perceived value is.
Comments like “hunt’s already played the best game of his career” and “hitting the rookie wall” are patently ridiculous and not based on his on-field play.
Focusing instead on his on-field performance - like the stats posted above about yards after contact & broken tackle rate - that’s what will help to determine his 2018 value & beyond, not hyperbole from people who hated on Hunt before he ever took a snap saying “I toldja so”.
As for start up dynasty value, this bad stretch might even be beneficial to owners wanting Hunt next season. He might slide to early or even late 2nd round if this keeps up. Personally if I were starting a Dynasty team next year I’d feel pretty good about taking Hunt in the 2nd, with the belief that the Chiefs will be better next year than this year.
Maybe im crazy - still seems like an excellent prospect to me.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I agree he's a "good hold". I just think he would have been a better "sell high" in September
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right - which has nothing to do with start-up dynasty drafts in 2018.I agree he's a "good hold". I just think he would have been a better "sell high" in September
The jury is still out though - and really, those 5 posts you refer to seem to be the exceptions rather than the rule. Most folks weren't trading DJ, Zeke, or any of those other packages. And most folks with Hunt didn't seem too inclined to deal him. Pulling 5 examples from hundreds of posts doesn't mean someone in your leagues was going to give you that for him.
Do tell - what were you specifically offered for Hunt when he was hot? That's the value you passed up. Not "zomg I coulda had Zeke!
" Amused to Death
Footballguy
Meh, Andy Reid will get this all straightened out. He's a brilliant HC. I'm sure he just needs to put the players in better position.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I laughed because I couldn’t tell if this was sarcasm or legitimate - I lean towards sarcasm, but man it’s so deadpan.
kutta
Footballguy
I'm really trying to stay cool here. But why do you say:
"but talk at the time is that people were being offered EZE for him. That's patently absurd"
And then link to a trade with Zeke plus a pick, where the pick is a third round rookie pick? You play dynasty enough to know that third round rookie picks are not very valuable at all. I think most people would consider that such a minor throw-in, that it isn't "patently absurd" to say that people were trading Zeke for Hunt.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While this could be true, unless you sold Hunt for Gurley or Bell you would still have a issue with your line up right now.Hankmoody said:I agree he's a "good hold". I just think he would have been a better "sell high" in September
I think it is too soon to evaluate if he would have been a better sell high in the long term as Hunt may start producing again this season, and might perform better next season than this year.
If he doesn't then sure he would have been a better sell high, assuming you actually got something more valuable in return. Hunt was a valuable player to have in your lineup until Halloween when KCs offense turned into a pumpkin.
Its 4 weeks now of below 100 combined yards. If that continues for the rest of the year and next year, then sure, but if Hunt rebounds then keeping him wont be that bad. The first seven weeks of this season were good production for fantasy and that was until mid October.
I would have sold Hunt for Elliot if given the opportunity, but Hunt is more valuable than Elliot suspended right now, even with him not doing well.
David Johnson will likely be better than Hunt next year, but if you sold Hunt early for DJ you missed out on those good games in the first seven weeks and maybe some more good games ahead this year. While in a vacuum it makes sense to prefer DJ, but for a team contending right now makes more sense to hang on to Hunt who was producing until recently.
Hindsights always 20/20
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Eagles fan. Definitely sarcasm.Hot Sauce Guy said:I laughed because I couldn’t tell if this was sarcasm or legitimate - I lean towards sarcasm, but man it’s so deadpan.
DropKick
Footballguy
I was in negotiations of a 5 player deal (3 for 2), that fell though, that would have included Kamara for Hunt around week 3 or 4. I would have given Kamara. Some of the best trades are those I've never made.Hot Sauce Guy said:Right - which has nothing to do with start-up dynasty drafts in 2018.
The jury is still out though - and really, those 5 posts you refer to seem to be the exceptions rather than the rule. Most folks weren't trading DJ, Zeke, or any of those other packages. And most folks with Hunt didn't seem too inclined to deal him. Pulling 5 examples from hundreds of posts doesn't mean someone in your leagues was going to give you that for him.
Do tell - what were you specifically offered for Hunt when he was hot? That's the value you passed up. Not "zomg I coulda had Zeke!
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It was perfectly reasonable to go all in after Hunt's ridiculous start (the kid looked great). It was also perfectly reasonable to want to see a bigger sample size. If you bought high - he's young and has a lot of promise. If you sold high - enjoy the profit. This hobby humbles all of us.
DropKick
Footballguy
I probably had excessive man love given that I had him targeted (and likely could have landed) for mid-late first round and the Ware injury vaulted him into the top 5 - earlier than my picks...
Felt I had missed out and could remedy the miss via trade.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You could be catching a falling dagger here but yeah right now seems like as good as any buy low window.
If you believe in Hunt makes sense. Not sure the situation around him is going to improve or not though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pretty good takes from Geoff Schwartz here on how the chiefs can get back to their winning ways. It kinda comes down to 1. Better OL play, 2. Better game plan/don’t abandon the run & 3. Better QB play.
https://www.sbnation.com/2017/11/27/16706030/kansas-city-chiefs-offense-alex-smith-pat-mahomes-kareem-hunt
Amused to Death
Footballguy
This has always been a downfall of an Andy Reid offense. Too quick to pull the plug on the run game if things aren’t going well.
Andy Reid will always attempt to pass his way out of a slump. No one tells AR to run more.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It is, and your post also relies on it. That's all we have today, is to base them on the current state.
Hindsight isn't even relevant to my point. I am not saying I would have loved those offers be made to me in September because they would have turned out well, I'm saying it because I would have loved them and accepted them at that moment. If Hunt were averaging 29.2 PPG right now I would still be saying I would have taken EZE for him in September because I would have with the information we had at that time. And I would have had no regrets either way if I make a decision that just didn't work out. That happens.
Not all trades are done with this year or now in mind. It's a dynasty league and I'm managing for the next 3-4 years. I'd trade Hunt for EZE or DJ right now, today, even in the league I'm a contender in. If that left me with a starter problem I'm make another trade to fill that. Trading for a fill-in like Fitzgerald or Stills is a lot easier than getting a shot at Ezekiel Elliott.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Actually every Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware, and now Kareem Hunt owner ever has told The Large Cherry to run more, he just never listens.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I should have been more clear. You can tell him, but that will only motivate him to pass more.
