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RB Kareem Hunt, KC (2 Viewers)

Yup, feeling more comfortable with him as my #2, and #3 once Zeke returns.  Good (not great) run based offense.  Very solid defense.  Coach that likes to use one primary back, the team traded up to get him, and now limited competition.  What's not to like?

 
Someone took him middle of 3rd round in my draft yesterday which I thought was far too early.   I know he will not be on any of my teams this year at that price.  

 
rickyg said:
Hunt went 1.2 in my dynasty rookie draft his morning. 
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Might be time to trade Kareem Hunt then. I'm a Hunt owner in one league and I don't believe he's a great talent. On the other hand, with the way people value young RBs, he'll be a top 30 startup pick next year if he rushes for 1k+ this season on 3.8+ YPC, which is very doable.

 
Got him at the following positions: 
Aug 6th (12T PPR) : Pick 13.07 (Drafted as Handcuff to Ware to go with Elliott, Gore, West, and Riddick) 
Aug 26th (12T PPR) : Pick 07.03 (To someone else. I was going to take at 7.09 early draft before Ware news fully hit) 
Aug 27th (10T PPR) : Pick 7.01 (My RB3 behind D Johnson and McCoy (Keeper)... no idea how he fell so far) 
 

 
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Some people are just willing to dismiss Reid's history of taking RBs who have similar traits and abilities to Hunt and turn them into FF gold.  I won't. I don't believe the success of Westbrook, McCoy, and Charles was completely divorced from Reid.  He knows what he likes in a RB and selects those that fit his system.  I also see Hunt very comparable to Westbrook, who also wasn't nearly as fast as McCoy or Charles but still thrived because of his diversity.

So I'll bet on Reid in that he just found his next star RB.  It may not shake out that way in the end, but seems like a risk worth taking to me.  If you dismiss Reid's history then you probably don't believe.  That's cool.  We'll all see now that opportunity had opened the door for Hunt.

.

 
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I can see Hunt thriving, but style-wise I don't see a comparison between him and Westbrook/McCoy/Charles. He doesn't have the elusiveness of the first two or the speed of the latter. If we're talking Reid backs, he's more like Correll Buckhalter.

 
EBF said:
I can see Hunt thriving, but style-wise I don't see a comparison between him and Westbrook/McCoy/Charles. He doesn't have the elusiveness of the first two or the speed of the latter. If we're talking Reid backs, he's more like Correll Buckhalter.
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What do you base his lack of elusiveness on?

According to PFF Hunt was the second most elusive RB in college in 2016

Hunt’s 98 total missed tackles forced were second-most in the nation in 2016.
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A RBs ability to make defenders miss and create on their own is something I value very highly and what I look for in a college prospect. Hunt certainly shows that at the college level, being able to string multiple moves together and navigate traffic. It is not the only way he wins, but it is certainly one of the traits he has that I would describe as a strength.

Westbrook, McCoy and Charles are proven NFL players, Hunt is not, so I would pause before comparing his elusiveness to these players at the NFL level, but if you are looking at this from a wide spectrum of of relative ability I think Hunt is closer to Westbrook or McCoy than Buchhalter.

With Hunt I do question somewhat if some of the moves he uses in college will translate to the speed of the NFL and that concern is mostly based on Hunts measured athleticism at the combine and his pro day. However Westbrook and McCoy did not perform much better than Hunt by the same criteria and Buckhalter was better than I thought in terms of short shuttle and 3 cone drills.

Hunt

Westbrook

McCoy

Buckhalter

Based on the criteria of speed, short shuttle and 3 cone drill Hunt is the worst performer of these four in these metrics.

In comparing Hunts elusiveness to other top 2017 rookie RBs such as Dalvin Cook, I think Hunts moves are more exaggerated than Cook who runs more under control. I think part of this is the difference in speed between the two players. A slower player like Hunt has to contort and make more extreme cuts to make defenders miss than Cook does. So when watching the players, Hunt seems a bit more exciting with some of his extreme changes of direction he makes out of necessity, while Cook is able to use a more subtle change of direction effectively because of his speed to create bad angles. Those more extreme changes of direction do force a RB to lose their momentum and need to accelerate from zero again after the move, while a more subtle cut will not. Cook doesn't waste a lot of motion in the way he runs, which to me is a good thing, just not as visually obvious what he is doing as it is with Hunt.

Anyhow if you could expand on why you think he is less elusive than Westbrook much appreciated. I am not really seeing Hunt that way. Hunt seems very elusive to me. One of the reasons he was one of my favorite RB to watch from the 2017 draft.

 
EBF said:
I can see Hunt thriving, but style-wise I don't see a comparison between him and Westbrook/McCoy/Charles. He doesn't have the elusiveness of the first two or the speed of the latter. If we're talking Reid backs, he's more like Correll Buckhalter.
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All those guys were seen as having flaws as RBs.  None of them were 1st rounders, and all 3 were selected after the 1st in a time when multiple RBs were selected in the 1st round as a matter of course.  It's easy in hindsight after having a record of their performance to make them seem better prospects than they were considered to be when they were drafted and into their first preseasons.

.

 
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Waldman on Hunt.

Skimmer Alert: Hunt's pass protection is unproven and the regular season could present more complex problems than he can handle. If he doesn't adjust fast, he could wind up in a committee. Don't count on him as one of your first RBs during a draft unless you have a couple of mid-round starters in your back pocket that you are certain will compensate for him underwhelming in this area to the point that it hurts his workload.
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Ware is just as talented as Hunt. Ware proved himself capable in the passing game/pass protection yet West still saw the field. West will again see the field, probably more than Hunt owners would like.

If you drafted Hunt in the late rounds as a lottery ticket, you got great value. If you're drafting Hunt in the 3rd round you're reaching IMO. But I look at the field and I can't really blame anyone considering how scarce the position is.

 
Biabreakable said:
Anyhow if you could expand on why you think he is less elusive than Westbrook much appreciated. I am not really seeing Hunt that way. Hunt seems very elusive to me. One of the reasons he was one of my favorite RB to watch from the 2017 draft.
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If broken tackles (i.e. running through defenders/arm tackles/etc) also count towards elusiveness stats then I don't think those stats reflect actual elusiveness, which to me means the ability to make sharp cuts and avoid contact, not the ability to shed/run through contact. The latter is what I would call power, not elusiveness.

I know Hunt well. Not that it really matters much, but I was the first person to mention him on these message boards, as far as I know. I watched a lot of college players from 2014-2015 and he came onto my radar because of his production at Toledo. Here is what I said about him back then:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/666153-dynasty-non-draft-eligible-college-prospects/?page=29#comment-17766414

RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo - I'm surprised he isn't higher on most devy boards by virtue of his metrics alone. He's a big back at approximately 5'11" 220. He ran an automatic 10.8 in the 100m as a high schooler. He also high jumped 6'8". So he's an explosive athlete for his size. On the field, he ranked third in the country in rushing yards per game behind Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman and topped 100+ in every game. He also had an obscene long run percentage, busting 20 plays of 20+ yards on just 205 carries. I was strongly tempted to draft him and he was probably the next guy up on my board after the two that I took in this draft. What ultimately dissuaded me from making the pick was his clips. I felt like he lacked good east-west plant-and-drive quickness. He was more of a musclebound straight-line runner sort of in the mold of Rashard Mendenhall. Practically looks like a Mendy clone on this run, spin move and all. When running through the line of scrimmage, he seemed to struggle to make hard lateral cuts and instead would sort of jump or shuffle to the side. It's hard to explain, but it ended up getting him tackled in weird and stressful ways. Beyond that, the MAC is a creampuff conference and Toledo has a friendly system that inflates RB production (look at David Fluellen's numbers from the last few years). Hunt is a better prospect than Fluellen and I could see him going in the 2nd-4th round of the draft next year, but ultimately I did not see the crisp movement of a first round back.
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I've watched a lot of RBs over the years and I would not compare Hunt to McCoy or Westbrook. He's significantly bigger than McCoy. Westbrook had a similar BMI, but was almost 15 pounds lighter by virtue of being two inches shorter. Hunt is not as big or heavy as he looks on the field, but physically he doesn't really fit the scatback type of mold like the other two. Style-wise it's the same story. You talked about Hunt's elusiveness, but from my perspective that has always been the biggest weakness in his game.

When I think of McCoy, I think of crazy jump cuts and jukes. That's pretty much McCoy's entire game. He's fast, but he's light and weak. The reason he thrives is because he can make instant, violent lateral cuts without losing speed. You can't tackle a back if you can't hit him. Westbrook was more of a straight line player, but he also had the ability to break people down in the open field and to string together multiple moves without losing much speed.

That's not really Kareem Hunt's style. He can make one move early in the play, but he can't usually string together multiple moves or shake people at full speed. Here's a good recent example. Hunt gets the ball with a nice lane in front of him, but even with 8 yards of separation between him and the defender, he is unable to redirect his momentum and avoid the tackle in the 1v1 situation. All he can do is awkwardly prepare for the hit. When I watched Hunt at Toledo, I saw this type of thing again and again.

Here he gets the ball down the sideline. He sees the tackler coming, but decides to lower his shoulder instead of making a sharp and sudden cut. Same game, a short while later. Hunt gets the ball and makes a nice initial move. When he gets to the second level, he is unable to make a decisive cut and instead is left to barrel into the defender. You see this more than a few times with Hunt. He has very nice elusiveness early in the play, but he struggles to cut at top speed. Once again, he gets into the second level and can't make the tackler miss. To be fair to Hunt, he definitely has some elusiveness. Here's a nice run where he makes a crisp move to beat the defender. Here's another really good move.

Hunt isn't completely linear as a runner, but he doesn't compare to the most elusive backs either. Watch his clips and then watch a back like Joe Mixon, who is constantly running with loose hips and instant redirection. Even when he gets momentum behind him and gets into the second level, he's still able to find another move and avoid contact instead of being forced to lower his shoulder and take a hit. That might be the difference between a good back and a great one. Hunt is a lot bigger than McCoy/Westbrook and runs with good determination and balance. He gets a lot of second effort yards because he's hard to bring down and he always keeps churning. I can see him having some success for KC, but I'm not convinced he's worthy of comparison to people like McCoy and Westbrook.

 
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I saw another thread that he was taken at 1.02 in rookie drafts.   :shock:  are you kidding me?  Sell HIGH NOW!!!!

 
EBF said:
If broken tackles (i.e. running through defenders/arm tackles/etc) also count towards elusiveness stats then I don't think those stats reflect actual elusiveness, which to me means the ability to make sharp cuts and avoid contact, not the ability to shed/run through contact. The latter is what I would call power, not elusiveness.

I know Hunt well. Not that it really matters much, but I was the first person to mention him on these message boards, as far as I know. I watched a lot of college players from 2014-2015 and he came onto my radar because of his production at Toledo. Here is what I said about him back then:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/666153-dynasty-non-draft-eligible-college-prospects/?page=29#comment-17766414

I've watched a lot of RBs over the years and I would not compare Hunt to McCoy or Westbrook. He's significantly bigger than McCoy. Westbrook had a similar BMI, but was almost 15 pounds lighter by virtue of being two inches shorter. Hunt is not as big or heavy as he looks on the field, but physically he doesn't really fit the scatback type of mold like the other two. Style-wise it's the same story. You talked about Hunt's elusiveness, but from my perspective that has always been the biggest weakness in his game.

When I think of McCoy, I think of crazy jump cuts and jukes. That's pretty much McCoy's entire game. He's fast, but he's light and weak. The reason he thrives is because he can make instant, violent lateral cuts without losing speed. You can't tackle a back if you can't hit him. Westbrook was more of a straight line player, but he also had the ability to break people down in the open field and to string together multiple moves without losing much speed.

That's not really Kareem Hunt's style. He can make one move early in the play, but he can't usually string together multiple moves or shake people at full speed. Here's a good recent example. Hunt gets the ball with a nice lane in front of him, but even with 8 yards of separation between him and the defender, he is unable to redirect his momentum and avoid the tackle in the 1v1 situation. All he can do is awkwardly prepare for the hit. When I watched Hunt at Toledo, I saw this type of thing again and again.

Here he gets the ball down the sideline. He sees the tackler coming, but decides to lower his shoulder instead of making a sharp and sudden cut. Same game, a short while later. Hunt gets the ball and makes a nice initial move. When he gets to the second level, he is unable to make a decisive cut and instead is left to barrel into the defender. You see this more than a few times with Hunt. He has very nice elusiveness early in the play, but he struggles to cut at top speed. Once again, he gets into the second level and can't make the tackler miss. To be fair to Hunt, he definitely has some elusiveness. Here's a nice run where he makes a crisp move to beat the defender. Here's another really good move.

Hunt isn't completely linear as a runner, but he doesn't compare to the most elusive backs either. Watch his clips and then watch a back like Joe Mixon, who is constantly running with loose hips and instant redirection. Even when he gets momentum behind him and gets into the second level, he's still able to find another move and avoid contact instead of being forced to lower his shoulder and take a hit. That might be the difference between a good back and a great one. Hunt is a lot bigger than McCoy/Westbrook and runs with good determination and balance. He gets a lot of second effort yards because he's hard to bring down and he always keeps churning. I can see him having some success for KC, but I'm not convinced he's worthy of comparison to people like McCoy and Westbrook.
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Lol. Great examples. This makes me want to draft Mixon not Hunt.

 
I picked up Kelce in the 4th and Hunt in the 5th. Didn't think about it too much at the time but they should both be able to produce and put up solid numbers.

Depending on how Denver does, thats the only time I would consider not playing both. I would definitely play Kelce but may sit Hunt.

 
EBF said:
If broken tackles (i.e. running through defenders/arm tackles/etc) also count towards elusiveness stats then I don't think those stats reflect actual elusiveness, which to me means the ability to make sharp cuts and avoid contact, not the ability to shed/run through contact. The latter is what I would call power, not elusiveness.

I know Hunt well. Not that it really matters much, but I was the first person to mention him on these message boards, as far as I know. I watched a lot of college players from 2014-2015 and he came onto my radar because of his production at Toledo. Here is what I said about him back then:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/666153-dynasty-non-draft-eligible-college-prospects/?page=29#comment-17766414

I've watched a lot of RBs over the years and I would not compare Hunt to McCoy or Westbrook. He's significantly bigger than McCoy. Westbrook had a similar BMI, but was almost 15 pounds lighter by virtue of being two inches shorter. Hunt is not as big or heavy as he looks on the field, but physically he doesn't really fit the scatback type of mold like the other two. Style-wise it's the same story. You talked about Hunt's elusiveness, but from my perspective that has always been the biggest weakness in his game.

When I think of McCoy, I think of crazy jump cuts and jukes. That's pretty much McCoy's entire game. He's fast, but he's light and weak. The reason he thrives is because he can make instant, violent lateral cuts without losing speed. You can't tackle a back if you can't hit him. Westbrook was more of a straight line player, but he also had the ability to break people down in the open field and to string together multiple moves without losing much speed.

That's not really Kareem Hunt's style. He can make one move early in the play, but he can't usually string together multiple moves or shake people at full speed. Here's a good recent example. Hunt gets the ball with a nice lane in front of him, but even with 8 yards of separation between him and the defender, he is unable to redirect his momentum and avoid the tackle in the 1v1 situation. All he can do is awkwardly prepare for the hit. When I watched Hunt at Toledo, I saw this type of thing again and again.

Here he gets the ball down the sideline. He sees the tackler coming, but decides to lower his shoulder instead of making a sharp and sudden cut. Same game, a short while later. Hunt gets the ball and makes a nice initial move. When he gets to the second level, he is unable to make a decisive cut and instead is left to barrel into the defender. You see this more than a few times with Hunt. He has very nice elusiveness early in the play, but he struggles to cut at top speed. Once again, he gets into the second level and can't make the tackler miss. To be fair to Hunt, he definitely has some elusiveness. Here's a nice run where he makes a crisp move to beat the defender. Here's another really good move.

Hunt isn't completely linear as a runner, but he doesn't compare to the most elusive backs either. Watch his clips and then watch a back like Joe Mixon, who is constantly running with loose hips and instant redirection. Even when he gets momentum behind him and gets into the second level, he's still able to find another move and avoid contact instead of being forced to lower his shoulder and take a hit. That might be the difference between a good back and a great one. Hunt is a lot bigger than McCoy/Westbrook and runs with good determination and balance. He gets a lot of second effort yards because he's hard to bring down and he always keeps churning. I can see him having some success for KC, but I'm not convinced he's worthy of comparison to people like McCoy and Westbrook.
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Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I can see what you are saying and some good examples to illustrate your perspective. There are a couple examples that didn't really ring true for me but some of them do.

I just watched him again looking for the play that I described earlier on in the thread but I don't remember which game this was in right now.

The thing that I like about him is his vision and ability to create opportunities for himself when not much is there. He has several different moves to make defenders miss or get a bad angle on their tackle attempt. On one of his runs he combines a jump cut to make one defender miss, then takes a hop step backwards to make a second defender miss before proceeding with the play. That is a result of good balance as well, but the spatial awareness combined with this creativity is what makes him fun to watch.
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I can remember the play in my mind and an example of him stringing multiple moves together to make defenders miss. I just can't find the play right now.

There are other examples of him using multiple jump cuts to evade defenders. These are highlights so certainly not examples of typical play style of Hunt. But there are some examples of his elusiveness shown here for sake of brevity.

The first play you see him make a nice cut inside his block to a clear lane, then use multiple changes of direction while not losing speed to help him beat the safety one on one. Certainly not face melting cuts, but effective. NFL defenders likely better than this and I do think the moves slow him down a bit, NFL defenders generally much faster in pursuit and risk of him being caught from behind if he slows down too much trying to make the defender miss.

The second play of this clip against Western Michigan you see him use multiple changes of direction to cut back against the grain of the play. He does run into his lineman briefly before cutting left the second time or this would look smoother. But I would call this multiple jump cuts/evasive moves to exploit the pursuit of the defense and get to daylight.

While this is a highlight, he has a similar play in 2014 near the end of the game against Arkansas at the 7:30 mark of these clips I think this is very much like the play from above against Western Michigan, showing that this is a part of his skill set.

There was an even more extreme example of this I was talking about in the quote above. I just could find it.

I agree with you though that this isn't something he does a lot of, and there are plenty of times that he fails to make defenders miss when he does. He doesn't do that as much as McCoy and it isn't his best trait. He can do it though..

There are some more examples of this in the highlight reel. The 5th play for example he does cut back inside from the sideline and makes the last guy miss/using his blocking to finish with the TD. Perhaps what you were looking for from him on the other sideline example.

 
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 Just finished a 12 teamer, start 3WR league (no flex).

 Hunt went off the board at 4.6

 I was sitting there at 4.10 waiting, but my buddy nabbed him before me. I was absolutely going to get him at 4.10.

 These bastards I play with are getting smarter.      :wall:

 TZM

 
Ketamine Dreams said:
He went for $30 in our 10 team ppr $200 auction on Saturday, just as an FYI.
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Fwiw, he went pick #108 in my 10 team league but that was August 10th, dynasty, 2qb. Right before I took tevin Coleman and I would have taken hunt. 

 
Took him at 5.1 In a 12 teamer. All the horses were gone except Gore. I like Frank Gore but I think hunts ceiling is much higher. I grabbed Doug Martin at 7.1 and I already had David Johnson. 

 
Bigboy10182000 said:
Anyone get him and Hill? If so, how do you feel about that? 
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I have them both on one team. We drafted on the 18th. It's a keeper league and we do a 1-round rookie draft before the actual draft. I had 1.05 and took Hunt with that pick. Then took Hill in the 3rd. Earlier than most leagues, but keep in mind the 3rd in that draft was more like the 5th in normal drafts with all the keepers factored in.

 
Our local league is 90% KC homers, so I'm sitting here with picks 2, 4 and 5 with Hunt firmly as my #6 guy and I'm wondering if he will make it past pick #3...I bet he wont!

 
ESPN just moved Hunt up in their default rankings to mid 30s. He was at 57 yesterday.

No chance he's around in my draft tonight since so many just lean on the defaults and don't do their homework.

 
zoonation said:
easy top 10 ppr finish if he stays healthy.  he is going to get fed.
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Yeah I'm upset I missed out on him in my leagues.

However, the person who drafted him pre-ware injury drafted him at his current value, so I didnt miss out, just wouldnt have paid 5th round value at the time. 

 
zoonation said:
easy top 10 ppr finish if he stays healthy.  he is going to get fed.
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Overall or among RBs?

I don't think 300 touches is within reach. I think a baseline of 250 touches is a good starting point for projections but no matter how I try to slice it I can't see him beyond 280 touches max.  That may be enough for a top 10 finish...maybe.

 
Hunt will have a defined role on a team that is going to feed him the ball often. Andy Reed typically doesn't go with RBBC so his popularity is warranted.

 
Hunt is my #1 rookie for this year in redraft leagues for me. I'd take him over Cook now because Cook will have TD's vultured. 

 
The last 2 years, the Chiefs have averaged 1943 yards and 13 TDs from the RB position. Last year Ware's per game stats (he missed 2 games) put him at pace for 1564 yards and 5 TDs. Ware accounted for 80% of the yards and 55% of the RB TDs. 

 
RalphMouth said:
Hunt will have a defined role on a team that is going to feed him the ball often. Andy Reed typically doesn't go with RBBC so his popularity is warranted.
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He'll have a defined role and it will be as the lead back but I am not sure he will match even Ware's per game touches+targets from last season.  Ware's pace was 288 touches, I don't think Hunt gets that much.

 
Chaka said:
He'll have a defined role and it will be as the lead back but I am not sure he will match even Ware's per game touches+targets from last season.  Ware's pace was 288 touches, I don't think Hunt gets that much.
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Why not? 

 
Chaka said:
He'll have a defined role and it will be as the lead back but I am not sure he will match even Ware's per game touches+targets from last season.  Ware's pace was 288 touches, I don't think Hunt gets that much.
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Even if you're right, Ware was 10th among RBs last year in yards from scrimmage despite missing 2 3/4 games. 

If Hunt is more talented than Ware, it's possible he produces very similar numbers with 250 touches. 

And with Tyreek Hill running more downfield routes, there's a hole to fill in the short passing game (Ware's targets went  down slightly when Hill emerged in the second half). 

Ware also had some big games when left guard Parker Ehinger (torn ACL after 5 games) played, running off the left side. Chiefs activated him off PUP last week so that's possibly a big boost for Hunt. 

 
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