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RB Kerryon Johnson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

This is just my opinion based on what I've watched of him as preparation for rookie drafts as well as being a Lions fan:

He's a rocked up 6' 215

He has great combine measurables (40 inch vertical, 126 inch broad jump, 7.07 3 cone, 4.29 20 yd shuttle) and ran a 4.5 at his pro day.

He has exceptional vision and patience that really stands out when you watch him.

He runs through arm tackles and is constantly getting extra yardage.

He makes great cuts, is a decisive runner, has a decent spin move and a great stiff arm. 

He's got decent pass catching skills as a running back and offers the versatility of a 3 down back.

I was worried about his 4.9 ypc in college but when I watch tape on him he was run out of the wildcat formation a lot and I'm curious what his ypc comparisons would be when in wildcat vs traditional formations.

Saquon is the gold standard as far as running backs in this class;  but of all the other running backs from this class you could argue ranking Kerryon above them at this point in time and yet he is being drafted 1.07 - 1.08 in a lot of rookie drafts behind Jones, Michel, Guice, Penny, Freeman.

 
This is just my opinion based on what I've watched of him as preparation for rookie drafts as well as being a Lions fan:

He's a rocked up 6' 215
Rotoworld has mentioned his weight at 206 a couple of times, which I thought was a little light for a 3 down back, especially considering how physical his style has been described. After reading your post they actually show his college weight at 212, Is it possible he slimmed down for the combine testing and just added the weight back on? I feel much better about his size at around 215

 
I like this guy MUCH better if he’s, indeed, 213. Guessing weight from what a player looks like on film (or TV) can be deceiving.

Every pound matters. Unlike what some people believe, there’s an astronomical difference between a RB that’s 200 & one that’s 215 in today’s NFL.

It’s one reason I’m leery of Ronald Jones’ ability to be a long-term feature back even though I like many of his attributes.

 
Interesting factoid from Jaime Eisenberg of CBS who is trumpeting Kerryon. The last 4RBs that teams traded up for to get in the draft have been Kamara, Hunt, Gorden, and now KJ. Does make you go hmmmm....even though the Lions (different regimes) have traded up for RBs in the past.

 
Back when he was at #10 in the FBG rookie rankings, I had a little hope that a couple guys ahead of me in my rookie draft would reach for QBs, and he might slip to me at 12.  Seems less likely now though, as he's creeping up the rankings  :kicksrock:    

 
Interesting factoid from Jaime Eisenberg of CBS who is trumpeting Kerryon. The last 4RBs that teams traded up for to get in the draft have been Kamara, Hunt, Gorden, and now KJ. Does make you go hmmmm....even though the Lions (different regimes) have traded up for RBs in the past.
And at least with Kamara and Hunt, they were technically buried behind AP, Ingram and Ware respectively - Johnson seems to be a larger part of the initial game plan. Still, much like Kamara and Hunt, Johnson may need to stumble into more opportunity via something like an injury to Blount/Riddick to make a big fantasy impact this year. 

 
Futz said:
Interesting factoid from Jaime Eisenberg of CBS who is trumpeting Kerryon. The last 4RBs that teams traded up for to get in the draft have been Kamara, Hunt, Gorden, and now KJ. Does make you go hmmmm....even though the Lions (different regimes) have traded up for RBs in the past.
Not the last 4, when you include:

MIN traded up to get Cook

SF traded up to get Joe Williams

Still good trade ups so far.

Before Gordon (looks like they cherry picked who the cut off was):

SF traded up to get Hyde

CLE traded up for Terrence West

GB Traded up for Johnathan Franklin

TB traded up for Mike James

TB Traded up for Doug Martin

DEN traded up for Ronnie Hillman

MIA traded up for Lamar Miller

DET traded up for Mikel Leshoure

MIA traded up for Daniel Thomas

WAS traded up for Roy Helu

ATL traded up for Jacquizz Rodgers

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/

 
im not willing to pay his adp right now even though he seems to be clearly their best rb.

agree with futz' thoughts. theyll use a bunch of rbs and frustrate the #### out of owners from week to week.  i imagine he'll be the most efficient (probably by a lot) at the end of the season but wont end up having been a reliable week-to-week start.

 
I think now is the time to get kj. A talented rb getting the majority of Carries and catching the ball in Detroit is going to rack up some stats. The rb skills on his college tape were evident even though they had that wild cat crap going on. Now he has showed it will translate to the NFL. If he was the 3rd down back ahead of abdullah already what do you guys thinks going to happen over the next week or two when he overtakes an aging blount? The only thing I'm wondering right now is how or if theo fits into the equation.  

 
A talented rb getting the majority of Carries and catching the ball in Detroit is going to rack up some stats.
well sure.  but will it happen?  hes gone at 6.1, 6.1, 5.12, 5.10, 5.3! in the last five 12 teamers ive done.  thats a pretty steep price imo.  id rather have ingram, r freeman or l miller at a similar cost i think.

 
I've got a cross-sport comp for him and its going to sound weird. 

He's like the Paul Pierce of running backs.  Watching that slow @$$ spin move come off like he's in an anti-gravity chamber and then start sucking wind 30 yards from the goalline finally helped me make the connection.  Pretty soon he'll be stringing together pump fakes.

If these are his fresh legs, it's a problem.  Not to mention its a Swiss army type backfield.  And this was the 3rd quarter of the first preseason game against the Raiders D.  Come on.

Pierce had a garbage game, but was somehow an all-time great despite it.  If KJ succeeds it will require the same amount of wtf factor.

Hard pass.

 
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Where is KJ in rookie drafts at this point?
Went 1.9 in my May draft and 1.10 in my draft that happened within the last 2 weeks. I like KJ a lot, and feel like he's going to be a lot like Hunt- taken late in the draft but having the some of most immediate upside. 

Surprisingly he hasn't risen at all... even with Penny having a ho hum camp (and now hurt), Michel getting hurt (although Michel's injury happened the day after he was taken in my slow draft), and with RoJo having a poor showing so far. 

 
I dont know how he could go at 9 or 10 right now.  Every other RB except Barkely looks terribly flawed.  I did not expect this to be the case a few months ago.  He has talent, opportunity, and 3 down skill set.  Obviously he could bust, but to me, every RB in this class not named Barkley has a greater than 50% chance to bust.

I think picks 2-10 will be wildly different from league to league from now until drafts are over.

 
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I dont know how he could go at 9 or 10 right now.  Every other RB except Barkely looks terribly flawed.  I did not expect this to be the case a few months ago.  He has talent, opportunity, and 3 down skill set.  Obviously he could bust, but to me, every RB in this class not named Barkley has a greater than 50% chance to bust.

I think picks 2-10 will be wildly different from league to league from now until drafts are over.
I agree. I've seen Chubb go all over. Penny went 1.2 in one of my leagues. 

With all of the injuries, by the time we get to September I could see the draft order turned upside down. I definitely see Freeman and Kerryon offering the most upside for 2018 aside from Barkley (or even Michel if he can come back, but I'm not confident about his knee). Kerryon seems to be one of the most complete backs in this draft, for sure. I am just not sure I trust the Lions to figure their RB situation out. 

You've got Blount, who could take a big role away from Kerryon for the Red Zone duties. Riddick is still handling passing downs. So the question is, is Detroit just getting Abdullah 2.0? Granted I like Kerryon way better than Abdullah, but is he going to be used the same way; just between the 20s? That can cap his upside. He has 3 down ability I just don't expect Detroit to use it. However Blount and Riddick don't offer much of a road block long term for Kerryon so I see that as a major positive. 

I've said this many times, but I feel like many people are drafting this year expecting the same results 2017 gave us with the rookie RBs, and unfortunately most of these RBs are likely to not show much 2018 value.

If we are talking 2019 and beyond value, there's a lot to like for all of them, aside from a couple I don't really care for at all.

 
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I really don't get the hype on Johnson.  Is it purposeful disinformation?  Johnson clearly ran third team in the first preseason game behind Blount and Ameer.  I know its preseason and it doesn't mean a whole lot, but I personally wasn't a fan to begin with.  I still think Ameer is a better prospect.  Having Blount and Riddick makes his path to playing time difficult.  He fell to 2.2 in one of my leagues and I passed even though I had 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12.

 
I really don't get the hype on Johnson.  Is it purposeful disinformation?  Johnson clearly ran third team in the first preseason game behind Blount and Ameer.  I know its preseason and it doesn't mean a whole lot, but I personally wasn't a fan to begin with.  I still think Ameer is a better prospect.  Having Blount and Riddick makes his path to playing time difficult.  He fell to 2.2 in one of my leagues and I passed even though I had 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12.
I dont get the hype on any of the RBs other than Barkley.  

 
You've got Blount, who could take a big role away from Kerryon for the Red Zone duties. Riddick is still handling passing downs. So the question is, is Detroit just getting Abdullah 2.0? Granted I like Kerryon way better than Abdullah, but is he going to be used the same way; just between the 20s? That can cap his upside. He has 3 down ability I just don't expect Detroit to use it. However Blount and Riddick don't offer much of a road block long term for Kerryon so I see that as a major positive. 

I've said this many times, but I feel like many people are drafting this year expecting the same results 2017 gave us with the rookie RBs, and unfortunately most of these RBs are likely to not show much 2018 value.

If we are talking 2019 and beyond value, there's a lot to like for all of them, aside from a couple I don't really care for at all.
Couldn't  agree more...riddick 3rd down back...blount goalline

abdullah was a 2nd round pick as well who looked AMAZING in preseason....agree this is version 2

 
People saying Blount on the goal line.. he had one of the worst goal line scoring  petecentages in the league last year on one of the top olines...

 
People saying Blount on the goal line.. he had one of the worst goal line scoring  petecentages in the league last year on one of the top olines...
does this really mean much? You dont have 18 tds in a season by being bad at the goalline. Phi could have just been a bad fit.

 
I agree. I've seen Chubb go all over. Penny went 1.2 in one of my leagues. 

With all of the injuries, by the time we get to September I could see the draft order turned upside down. I definitely see Freeman and Kerryon offering the most upside for 2018 aside from Barkley (or even Michel if he can come back, but I'm not confident about his knee). Kerryon seems to be one of the most complete backs in this draft, for sure. I am just not sure I trust the Lions to figure their RB situation out. 

You've got Blount, who could take a big role away from Kerryon for the Red Zone duties. Riddick is still handling passing downs. So the question is, is Detroit just getting Abdullah 2.0? Granted I like Kerryon way better than Abdullah, but is he going to be used the same way; just between the 20s? That can cap his upside. He has 3 down ability I just don't expect Detroit to use it. However Blount and Riddick don't offer much of a road block long term for Kerryon so I see that as a major positive. 

I've said this many times, but I feel like many people are drafting this year expecting the same results 2017 gave us with the rookie RBs, and unfortunately most of these RBs are likely to not show much 2018 value.

If we are talking 2019 and beyond value, there's a lot to like for all of them, aside from a couple I don't really care for at all.
Please post this or a close variant every second or third day until August 27th. TIA

 
well sure.  but will it happen?  hes gone at 6.1, 6.1, 5.12, 5.10, 5.3! in the last five 12 teamers ive done.  thats a pretty steep price imo.  id rather have ingram, r freeman or l miller at a similar cost i think.
Wow hes moved into the 5th round in redraft! That's surprising to me. I actually dont play any redraft league so my perspective is from a dynasty standpoint. I believe it will happen with kj in Detroit but that's jmo. I wouldnt fault anyone for taking kj above those guys in redraft or vice versa. If ingram didn't have the suspension I'd definitely take him first. Heck, even with the suspension I might take ingram first in a redraft. FWIW I've never been a big Miller fan but I'm hearing hes looking great this offseason.

 
does this really mean much? You dont have 18 tds in a season by being bad at the goalline. Phi could have just been a bad fit.
Brady and gronk made all the difference there imo. Blount isnt the same runner he was then any how. I just dont see him getting all the goalline carries.  I view blount as more of a vet leader at this point , someone with knowledge of how Patricia works. With blount in on the goalline everyone is playing the run. Kj can offer both and is a good gl back himself. I'm excited for this weeks game. Well see if he moves into the first or second team and that will be telling seeing him up against them defenses. Even though he already showed us a little last against the first team def. 

 
Wasn't Blount the "goal line back" last year as well?  Dude had one rushing TD of less than 10 yards.  ONE.

 
Wow hes moved into the 5th round in redraft! That's surprising to me. I actually dont play any redraft league so my perspective is from a dynasty standpoint. I believe it will happen with kj in Detroit but that's jmo. I wouldnt fault anyone for taking kj above those guys in redraft or vice versa. If ingram didn't have the suspension I'd definitely take him first. Heck, even with the suspension I might take ingram first in a redraft. FWIW I've never been a big Miller fan but I'm hearing hes looking great this offseason.
Can we please give him a different nickname than KJ?  ?. When I hear KJ and Lions in the same sentence the first person I think about is Kevin Jones.  We don’t think we want him following in those footsteps!

 
Got him last night in the 7th round of a full point ppr money draft as my rb4.  At that price I'm happy to take the gamble.  He might start slow but I think as the year goes along he'll get the majority of the work.  I view Riddick and Blount as specialists at this point.

 
Got him last night in the 7th round of a full point ppr money draft as my rb4.  At that price I'm happy to take the gamble.  He might start slow but I think as the year goes along he'll get the majority of the work.  I view Riddick and Blount as specialists at this point.
Yep, love him in the 7th.

Wow hes moved into the 5th round in redraft! That's surprising to me. I actually dont play any redraft league so my perspective is from a dynasty standpoint. I believe it will happen with kj in Detroit but that's jmo. I wouldnt fault anyone for taking kj above those guys in redraft or vice versa. If ingram didn't have the suspension I'd definitely take him first. Heck, even with the suspension I might take ingram first in a redraft. FWIW I've never been a big Miller fan but I'm hearing hes looking great this offseason.
Agree 100%. I would take Ingram and Miller ahead of KJ as well. I really like the kid but I think his ceiling is similar to Miller's and Ingram's but floor is fairly lower.

 
Just my opinion but I'd be careful with both Lamar Miller and Ingram.

The fact the coaching staff gave Alfred Blue a lot of carries down the stretch last year, while Lamar Miller was healthy and active, is a pretty big alarm bell to me.  Blue is still there and it sounds like Foreman is going to avoid the PUP list.  I think Miller's shelf life is short (assuming Foreman does start slow) and his upside is SEVERELY capped.

As for Ingram, his splits once Kamara got going last year suggest he's going to regress.  If he was going for a cheaper price I could get on board with it but in the real money draft I did last night he went in the 5th round....and to me that's WAYYY too high given his situation.

 
Just my opinion but I'd be careful with both Lamar Miller and Ingram.

The fact the coaching staff gave Alfred Blue a lot of carries down the stretch last year, while Lamar Miller was healthy and active, is a pretty big alarm bell to me.  Blue is still there and it sounds like Foreman is going to avoid the PUP list.  I think Miller's shelf life is short (assuming Foreman does start slow) and his upside is SEVERELY capped.

As for Ingram, his splits once Kamara got going last year suggest he's going to regress.  If he was going for a cheaper price I could get on board with it but in the real money draft I did last night he went in the 5th round....and to me that's WAYYY too high given his situation.
The reason I like Ingram is for trading. He is one of the few players almost guaranteed to increase in value. There is almost no way he can lose value over the first few weeks and once you've taken the cost of holding him, he can be traded to a team desperate for RB help around week 4. You are almost sure to get back better value than what you paid for him. 

 
The reason I like Ingram is for trading. He is one of the few players almost guaranteed to increase in value. There is almost no way he can lose value over the first few weeks and once you've taken the cost of holding him, he can be traded to a team desperate for RB help around week 4. You are almost sure to get back better value than what you paid for him. 
That's a good point.  From that standpoint I get it.

That being said I still think he's being drafted a round too high.

 
Just my opinion but I'd be careful with both Lamar Miller and Ingram.

The fact the coaching staff gave Alfred Blue a lot of carries down the stretch last year, while Lamar Miller was healthy and active, is a pretty big alarm bell to me.  Blue is still there and it sounds like Foreman is going to avoid the PUP list.  I think Miller's shelf life is short (assuming Foreman does start slow) and his upside is SEVERELY capped.

As for Ingram, his splits once Kamara got going last year suggest he's going to regress.  If he was going for a cheaper price I could get on board with it but in the real money draft I did last night he went in the 5th round....and to me that's WAYYY too high given his situation.
You really think Blue could eat into his carries? Foreman I think could be less than 100% and never really hit his stride. So I’m basing a lot of my stock in Miller getting a ton of touches. Appreciate the input - second guessing my choices forces me to reevaluate. 

Would you go with maybe like a Royce Freeman ahead of them? Higher ceiling but more uncertainty. That might be high for him - not sure where he’s going these days. 

 
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You really think Blue could eat into his carries? Foreman I think could be less than 100% and never really hit his stride. So I’m basing a lot of my stock in Miller getting a ton of touches. Appreciate the input - second guessing my choices forces me to reevaluate. 

Would you go with maybe like a Royce Freeman ahead of them? Higher ceiling but more uncertainty. That might be high for him - not sure where he’s going these days. 
Blue will get some work but ofcourse he will, there are only 5 or 6 RBs that are really going to control all of the RB opportunity. Miller definitely isn't good enough to be one of those guys. 

 
You really think Blue could eat into his carries? Foreman I think could be less than 100% and never really hit his stride. So I’m basing a lot of my stock in Miller getting a ton of touches. Appreciate the input - second guessing my choices forces me to reevaluate. 

Would you go with maybe like a Royce Freeman ahead of them? Higher ceiling but more uncertainty. That might be high for him - not sure where he’s going these days. 
Well as for Blue, it's not about why I think or what you think...the Houston coaching staff thinks it since they did it last year.  Foreman was hurt and they had full access to Miller and Blue and chose to give Blue most of the carries.  Say whatever you want but to me...that's telling.  I'm of the opinion Miller is going to be a huge bust relative to where he's being drafted right now.  He's basically off my board.

Absolutely on Freeman.  I have him rated right after Collins and Ajayi.....to me Freeman is a tier head of either of the guys you mentioned.

Just my 2 cents.

 
KJO is one of my favorites to get for his upside along with Freeman on the Broncos.  Kind of like a Kareem Hunt type of rookie upside.

 
Wasn't Blount the "goal line back" last year as well?  Dude had one rushing TD of less than 10 yards.  ONE.
That's how Philly used him or didn't if you will. He's also a year removed from scoring 18 in New England. Guess where our coach is from? Guess where our GM is from?

He's a proven short yardage guy in this league and TDs are always situationally dependent. The Super Bowl champs only scored nice 9 regular season TDs as a team.

The Lion's have been struggling with short yardage conversion for years. I can absolutely guarantee you that is why they brought him in on a 1 year deal. They figured he would bridge the gap until whatever rookie they were eventually going to draft (Kerryon) could prove worthy.

This will be a RBBC until next year unless someone gets hurt.

 
Blount has consistently gotten the goal-line and short yardage carries, and consistently been below average at them. Coach after coach sees his huge size but apparently doesn't see his running style.

On 42 career carries from the opponent's 1-yard-line Blount has scored a TD on 21 of them; an average success rate (53.8%) would've resulted in 22.6 TDs.
On 10 career carries from the opponent's 2-yard-line Blount has scored a TD on 1 of them; an average success rate (39.0%) would've resulted in 3.9 TDs.
On 40 career carries on 3rd or 4th & 1 outside the red zone Blount has a first down on 23 of them; an average success rate (70.8%) would've resulted in 28.3 first downs.
On 8 career carries on 3rd or 4th & 2 outside the red zone Blount has a first down on 2 of them; an average success rate (61.1%) would've resulted in 4.9 first downs.

In total Blount had 47 successes on these 100 plays when an average runner would've had 59.7 successes.

 
Blount has consistently gotten the goal-line and short yardage carries, and consistently been below average at them. Coach after coach sees his huge size but apparently doesn't see his running style.

On 42 career carries from the opponent's 1-yard-line Blount has scored a TD on 21 of them; an average success rate (53.8%) would've resulted in 22.6 TDs.
On 10 career carries from the opponent's 2-yard-line Blount has scored a TD on 1 of them; an average success rate (39.0%) would've resulted in 3.9 TDs.
On 40 career carries on 3rd or 4th & 1 outside the red zone Blount has a first down on 23 of them; an average success rate (70.8%) would've resulted in 28.3 first downs.
On 8 career carries on 3rd or 4th & 2 outside the red zone Blount has a first down on 2 of them; an average success rate (61.1%) would've resulted in 4.9 first downs.

In total Blount had 47 successes on these 100 plays when an average runner would've had 59.7 successes.
:nerd: sounds good to me

 
Wasn't a big fan of his around draft time, but I think he showed some flashes in the first preseason game. Looked a bit like DJ with his running style and body type. Not the same athlete in terms of raw explosiveness though. I'm more optimistic than I was a few months ago, yet not breaking out the anointing oils just yet.

 
Wasn't a big fan of his around draft time, but I think he showed some flashes in the first preseason game. Looked a bit like DJ with his running style and body type. Not the same athlete in terms of raw explosiveness though. I'm more optimistic than I was a few months ago, yet not breaking out the anointing oils just yet.
Recalling watching him last year in the SEC and he just keeps coming. He sustains production despite the work load. He has a great opportunity.

 
Can we please give him a different nickname than KJ?  ?. When I hear KJ and Lions in the same sentence the first person I think about is Kevin Jones.  We don’t think we want him following in those footsteps!
Wayward Son? (yeah, I'm old. Get off my lawn.)

 
Kerryon Johnson spanned nine yards on four carries while securing his only target for a gain of 10 yards Friday in the Lions’ second preseason game against the Giants.

Johnson was also active on special teams, compiling 19 yards on his lone kick return. The rookie was the second Lions running back to enter the game after Ameer Abdullah, though obviously he wasn’t much of a factor. Johnson is probably the best bet for fantasy success of the Lions’ backfield options, though veteran bruiser LeGarrette Blount and pass-catcher Theo Riddick are both threats to his workload.

Aug 17 - 10:10 PM

 

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