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RB Kerryon Johnson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

barackdhouse said:
I need a WR pretty bad in one redraft league so I am in negotiations to snag Woods for him.  I believe in KJ but have him in a number of other spots and am (currently) strong at RB in this one.  I also have an offer on my table of Calloway straight up, which I am considering if the Woods deal doesn't go through.  Not looking for advice here, just showing a rough estimate of where KJ trade value might sit today.  
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I know you didn’t want advice  :P but I would hold if Callaway were the offer

 
Hilts said:
Neither of those offers would have done it for me as a Kerryon owner. 

Right now you could argue Collins and Kerryon are roughly equal value, but Kerryon I think has a clearly brighter ros outlook. 
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It also depends if it’s PPR or not.  I own him in a PPR dynasty league and I wouldn’t take Lyndsay or Collins either.  

I’d need a bit of an overpay at this point and honestly, as someone mentioned earlier, which RBs are in his tier when you consider age, potential as a 3-down back (catches passes), and he currently doesn’t have any negatives associated with him.... again assuming dynasty.

If you are trying to trade for him you might be better off trying to offer a young WR or RB+WR for him. 

 
Is he a start this week? Looked good last week but still in a committee. Dallas is decent vs. the run but maybe Lee being out changes that a bit. Unsure. It's between him and J. White for me.

 
cjack said:
I own Kerryon as well and wouldn't have accepted either of your offers either.  I think for me, in terms of just RB's, you'd have to offer me someone who sees the majority of their teams' reps, and who is trending upward, not a guy on the downside of his career (redraft by the way).  The problem is, there aren't that many guys who fit that bill that aren't already classified as RB1 or RB2 material.  I'd rather hold on to Kerryon based on potential opportunity than trade him for another part timer or aging back on the downside of his career.  Let's assume the following are off the table:  Gurley, Elliott, D. Johnson, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, McCaffrey

Then you have guys who are currently dealing with injuries like Cook, D. Freeman, Mixon, McCoy, Ajayi.  I'd have to evaluate their estimated return dates before I'd consider one.

Then you have guys like Bell (is he going to play at all this year), Conner (dependent upon Bell), Ingram (I personally don't like the shared backfield), Peterson (doing well, but can he sustain) Howard and Hyde.

Without having to really consider injuries, holdouts, suspensions, etc., the only RBs I'd likely consider beyond the untouchables are guys like Howard or Hyde.  But, I'm stubborn and will hold someone with the promise of future potential rather than trade for somebody else's also-ran (e.g., I'm still holding out hope for Josh Gordon).
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I traded Kerryon in a package for some WRs in one league, and have him in another.  To me you're crazy if you wouldn't swap him for Mixon of the above (I have Mixon in the same league I have Kerryon so this is not an issue for me).  I think Cook or Freeman are pretty tough to turn down too.  

 
ericttspikes said:
Is he a start this week? Looked good last week but still in a committee. Dallas is decent vs. the run but maybe Lee being out changes that a bit. Unsure. It's between him and J. White for me.
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I am starting him over Drake. I hope I'm wrong because that will mean Drake finally put up good numbers. 

 
ericttspikes said:
Is he a start this week? Looked good last week but still in a committee. Dallas is decent vs. the run but maybe Lee being out changes that a bit. Unsure. It's between him and J. White for me.
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He's in this week and every week for me. Not that I have a ton of options in my 2R2F full PPR dynasty. So he's in over Henry.

 
ty247 said:
I don't think an owner is going to give up Kerryon for anything that wouldn't be perceived as an overpay at this point.

snip

Everyone that drafted him knew there would be at least some RBBC to start; 
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cjack said:
Let's assume the following are off the table:  Gurley, Elliott, D. Johnson, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, McCaffrey

Then you have guys who are currently dealing with injuries like Cook, D. Freeman, Mixon, McCoy, Ajayi.  I'd have to evaluate their estimated return dates before I'd consider one.

Then you have guys like Bell (is he going to play at all this year), Conner (dependent upon Bell), Ingram (I personally don't like the shared backfield), Peterson (doing well, but can he sustain) Howard and Hyde.
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PPR, Dynasty. These snips are pretty much where I am.

It would take a lower end rb1 to get my interest. Let's say Hunt, Fournette, Mixon, Freeman, Cook. Or a strong wr2 if I had wr needs. 

In redraft I would lower my sights a little depending upon my rb strength vs weakness at other positions.

 
When judging a trade you have to also consider KJs age along with everthing else he is clearly excelling at right now. Not as much for redraft (although evidence also shows age helps with initial returns), but for Keeper/dynasty he has extra value from his age. I always value 21 and under backs much higher than 22+ aged backs and Kerryon checks this box as well. Barkley and Jones are the only other 21 year olds in the top tier groupings of RBs this year and evidence shows younger backs produce much better initially and for longer periods of time so should be valued higher in any keeper type format. Of RBs, only Ronald Jones is younger (by about a month) than Johnson this year but his situation is obviously not nearly as good right now, nor are near term prospects. Barkley had a huge price at the draft, but of the other rookie backs left on the board, KJ has the best opp/talent/situation to start producing at or near Barkley's level, and at a much lower price in all formats.

 
Kerry on my wayward son, there'll be peace when you are done 

Top 5 pick next year.  

He is a better Bell.  Faster, stronger, better looking, less drugs and less holding out.

I'm all in in all leagues.  don't miss the rocket ship, limited seats available..........

 
Made an offer of Evan Engram for Kerryon/1st in FFPC, guy declined just not looking to move either piece.  He could use a TE but not in dyer need.  Thought it was fair.  Just posting as a data point.  

 
Zyphros said:
Made an offer of Evan Engram for Kerryon/1st in FFPC, guy declined just not looking to move either piece.  He could use a TE but not in dyer need.  Thought it was fair.  Just posting as a data point.  
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FFPC is like 8 keepers, right?  It already looks like Engram is 3rd in target share, I wouldn't trade Kerryon for him straight up right now.  Certainly wouldn't add a high pick.

 
cjack said:
Then you have guys who are currently dealing with injuries like Cook, D. Freeman, Mixon, McCoy, Ajayi.  I'd have to evaluate their estimated return dates before I'd consider one.
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I guess I'm not getting him then, although I'd gladly give up McCoy for him.

Or if I'm rebuilding, maybe I would accept Freeman or Ajayi. But in no way would I ever offer either.

I'm thinking anybody who drafted Kerryon will give him up for anything remotely fair right now.

 
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cloppbeast said:
I guess I'm not getting him then, although I'd gladly give up McCoy for him.

Or if I'm rebuilding, maybe I would accept Freeman or Ajayi. But in no way would I ever offer either.

I'm thinking anybody who drafted Kerryon will give him up for anything remotely fair right now.
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Well, that's the real sticking point, isn't it?

His dynasty owners see a guy who could be drafted as a RB1 next year.  Redraft owners won't be pushed off of their RB3 who has an arrow that's pointing up.

Potential buyers see what he went for in rookie drafts or redrafts and think they can buy him by offering about 10% more than that price or an aging veteran who isn't playing well right now.

 
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tangfoot said:
Well, that's the real sticking point, isn't it?

His dynasty owners see a guy who could be drafted as a RB1 next year.  Redraft owners won't be pushed off of their RB3 who has an arrow that's pointing up.

Potential buyers see what he went for in rookie drafts or redrafts and think they can buy him by offering about 10% more than that price or an aging veteran who isn't playing well right now.
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Yeah I get it. I didn't offer an aging veteran. I offered Alex Collins, who's really almost the same position - except a couple years older and not quite the pass catching chops. But still a little more of a resume. Like I said, I didn't expect an accept but hoped he would offer a counter letting me know what it would take. But whatever.

 
People who drafted a guy like Johnson late did so with the hope he could become a #1 RB. Now that he has shown that there is a possibility that he may be that, of course most aren't going to trade him straight up for a RB that will almost certainly be a #2 RB. There may be some guys out there who don't believe in Johnson a bit and are just hoping to cash in on his good game, but my experience is that most people value players on their own team highly (which is why they drafted them), especially when those players are rookies or 2nd year guys with breakout potential.

You're much more likely to be able to get Johnson offering a decent WR or top 10 QB to a guy who desperately needs one of those. Trying to trade a RB straight up for him at this point will probably be a week too late and pretty difficult.

 
GroveDiesel said:
People who drafted a guy like Johnson late did so with the hope he could become a #1 RB. Now that he has shown that there is a possibility that he may be that, of course most aren't going to trade him straight up for a RB that will almost certainly be a #2 RB. There may be some guys out there who don't believe in Johnson a bit and are just hoping to cash in on his good game, but my experience is that most people value players on their own team highly (which is why they drafted them), especially when those players are rookies or 2nd year guys with breakout potential.

You're much more likely to be able to get Johnson offering a decent WR or top 10 QB to a guy who desperately needs one of those. Trying to trade a RB straight up for him at this point will probably be a week too late and pretty difficult.
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That's my thought as well. Been trying to move him for a good WR in one redraft, but good RBs are hard to come by. In dynasty I'm simply not moving him unless some crazy offer comes in.

 
Crazy thought - instead of moving him, just enjoy the ride.

PFF rates the Lions O-line the 5th best in the NFL rn. Stafford has been sacked 3 times, which is the fewest in the league for QBs with 3 starts. They've invested a lot into that line - two first rounders, two somewhat pricey FAs, and the 5th guy was a 3rd rounder. Good unit.

Only caveat is he's unlikely to score a lot of TDs. Those are always variable but I just don't see any possibility of him hitting double digits.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Crazy thought - instead of moving him, just enjoy the ride.

PFF rates the Lions O-line the 5th best in the NFL rn. Stafford has been sacked 3 times, which is the fewest in the league for QBs with 3 starts. They've invested a lot into that line - two first rounders, two somewhat pricey FAs, and the 5th guy was a 3rd rounder. Good unit.

Only caveat is he's unlikely to score a lot of TDs. Those are always variable but I just don't see any possibility of him hitting double digits.
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It's all team dependent.  I had Mixon, Conner, D Johnson, White and Breida in a PPR redraft.  I felt comfortable trading Kerryon + some other pieces to bolster my WRs.  It absolutely could blow up in my face if he ends up being an RB1 this year-- but that's why I got some nice WRs back.  I still have Kerryon in another league so I'm rooting for him, but right now he's a rookie that had one decent game in the NFL, on a team that got smoked by the Jets, lost to a mediocre 49rs and just turned in one stalwart game.  We don't really know what the Lions are this year, and we don't know what Kerryon is which gives us a wide range of outcomes.  If you can package that risk and sell to someone who is assuming his upper range of outcomes, I think that's a good move. 

 
I was able to trade for him this week for Kenny Golladay to a team with RB depth and no receivers, I like Golladay as well but I needed help at RB and had the depth at WR.

 
ericttspikes said:
Is he a start this week? Looked good last week but still in a committee. Dallas is decent vs. the run but maybe Lee being out changes that a bit. Unsure. It's between him and J. White for me.
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Their defense has been gutted by the run in years past whenever lee misses time.   I am starting with confidence 

 
Blount had 7 carries for 12 yards. 

Kerryon had 9 carries for 55 yards. Even if you remove his 32 yard run to start the game, he was still outperforming Blount. 

I know Dallas was stopping the run, but this split doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

 
Hilts said:
Blount had 7 carries for 12 yards. 

Kerryon had 9 carries for 55 yards. Even if you remove his 32 yard run to start the game, he was still outperforming Blount. 

I know Dallas was stopping the run, but this split doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.
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The NFL is littered with terrible coaches.

 
Kerryon Johnson delivered 55 yards and a touchdown on nine carries while converting his lone target for a one-yard gain Sunday in Detroit’s Week 4 loss to the Lions.

Coming off a 100-yard breakout in Week 3, Johnson got off to a booming start in this one, shredding the Cowboys for 32 yards on the first play from scrimmage. Unfortunately his involvement dwindled after that, particularly after halftime as the rookie was limited to just three second-half touches. The Auburn alum salvaged the day for fantasy owners by punching in an eight-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Despite soundly outperforming LeGarrette Blount for the second straight week, Johnson out-touched the veteran by a slim 10-7 margin while only seeing six more snaps. With Blount continuing to eat into Johnson's workload, the 21-year-old will just be a back-end RB2 for next week's home game against the Packers.

Sep 30 - 4:13 PM
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I started him this week because my main guy, McCaffrey, was a bye. But I don’t see Johnson as an every week starter unless he gets more touches, and that doesn’t appear to be happening. 

 
timschochet said:
I started him this week because my main guy, McCaffrey, was a bye. But I don’t see Johnson as an every week starter unless he gets more touches, and that doesn’t appear to be happening. 
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Lions are 4-0, can’t argue when they are so good. Gotta keep those legs fresh for their super bowl run.

 
Somebody needs to be fired if this keeps up. He is so much better than Blount. Are they saving him?? And for what? A playoff run? No. For the next OC?? Hopefully.

 
# of touches are puzzling given his breakout game last week however the positive is the TD run where he pretty much ran over the defender.  He's showing things every game that should help his status in the eyes of the coaching staff, so hopefully the things he's doing start to force more carries and maybe even goal line work, which would be a big boost.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Saw this in another thread.

Kerryon: 37 carries for 210 yards
Blount: 34 carries for 97 yards
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Its amazing how much the Lions and Packers backfields are the same. 1 guy who lights it every time he gets the ball, 1 guy who runs into brick walls(but is a coaches pet for some reason) and a pass catcher. 

Hopefully for fantasy owners, and fans of those teams, the coaches start using the best player more often. 

 
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:tfp: Criminally under used at this point. I could say the same for Golliday in the RZ where the Lions are dead last. This coaching staff doesn't seem to understand their personnel at all.

Jim Bob is going to be MattyPatty's scapegoat for this year. 

 
Not what I want to read from my head coach. If they were 4-0 or even 3-1, I would be ok with his statement. 

But they are 1-3. Give the kid the ball!

 
mnmplayer said:
That's a funny article. Patricia talks about how Studies have shown that a committee is better for running back but has he done any studies about winning games? Maybe he should study those teams that played their best players more than 30% of the snaps and gave them more than 9 carries and won championships.
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Thing these guys don't get coming from the Patriots is that they don't have Brady at QB. You have to adapt to your talent. Riddick shouldnt be getting do many snaps. Third and long only. They have to make it easy for the qb and provide a threat if running it.

 
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