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RB Kerryon Johnson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Sometimes it means something, sometimes not. Figuring out what it means, that's the hard part.
As I previosly pointed out, the Lions have voiced intent to split up the running back touches. The SP has abandoned this possibility, along with the rest of FF. Im sure there are a lot of good reasons why. Nevertheless, the preseason usage, if you wanted to read it that way, could be seen as a confirmation the Lions will keep to their word.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Right, I get what you're saying. Not sure everybody else has such reasonable expectations being his ADP has climbed to the middle 3rd.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’re not understanding- I’m not saying Kerryon will get 90% of the snaps. I’m saying I don’t think he’ll get pulled on every third down for someone like CJ Anderson. I don’t think we can draw any conclusions on that based on Week 2 of preseason.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Being a "3-down back" is almost irrelevant. 3rd downs produce few statistics for running backs. 3rd and short often nets a running back a yard or two and a pile of dust. And it causes a lot of wear and tear on the running back. 3rd and long produces a lot of pass blocking which creates no stats but also puts wear and tear on the running back. In today's NFL, running backs get by far most of their receptions on 1st and 2nd downs. With Kerryon's delicate body, he is better off not playing rough and tumble 3rd downs. And it's completely possible to get workhorse numbers playing solely on early downs.
The biggest obstacle to Kerryon getting workhorse numbers isn't if he plays 3rd downs but if CJ Anderson gets a lot of the early down snaps. Fantasy owners might think that CJ Anderson is junk but he's not. He is a very effective power runner. Matt Patricia learned under Belichick who loves early down pounders. Power runners force defenses to play 8-man fronts and they dish out punishment on defenders softening them up. These are benefits that don't show up in the running back's stats. Last year the Lions signed Blount and this year they signed Anderson. They may very well be intending on giving CJ Anderson 40% of snaps.
There is little reason to have confidence that Kerryon will be a workhorse. But fantasy footballers love to believe that a running back who had a high ypc one season will automatically get their role greatly expanded the next season. There are a lot of factors other than ypc that goes into a coach deciding how many snaps a running back will receive. This is something that fantasy owners are horrible at understanding. If CJ does get a lot of snaps, we're going to have to listen to all the Kerryon owners cry and whine about how Patricia is an idiot and Kerryon is getting the shaft. Some fantasy owners never learn to accept that real football is different than fantasy football.
The one thing working in Kerryon's favor is that Patricia could potentially get fired after just 2 years. This means that he will be willing to risk injury to Kerryon if he believes it gives them the best chance of winning in the short term.
The biggest obstacle to Kerryon getting workhorse numbers isn't if he plays 3rd downs but if CJ Anderson gets a lot of the early down snaps. Fantasy owners might think that CJ Anderson is junk but he's not. He is a very effective power runner. Matt Patricia learned under Belichick who loves early down pounders. Power runners force defenses to play 8-man fronts and they dish out punishment on defenders softening them up. These are benefits that don't show up in the running back's stats. Last year the Lions signed Blount and this year they signed Anderson. They may very well be intending on giving CJ Anderson 40% of snaps.
There is little reason to have confidence that Kerryon will be a workhorse. But fantasy footballers love to believe that a running back who had a high ypc one season will automatically get their role greatly expanded the next season. There are a lot of factors other than ypc that goes into a coach deciding how many snaps a running back will receive. This is something that fantasy owners are horrible at understanding. If CJ does get a lot of snaps, we're going to have to listen to all the Kerryon owners cry and whine about how Patricia is an idiot and Kerryon is getting the shaft. Some fantasy owners never learn to accept that real football is different than fantasy football.
The one thing working in Kerryon's favor is that Patricia could potentially get fired after just 2 years. This means that he will be willing to risk injury to Kerryon if he believes it gives them the best chance of winning in the short term.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
So 3 down backs scoring way more points is coincidence? You have Gurley ranked higher this year than last year?
If Johnson plays better than the other backs he’ll play more and I don’t think the hoodie gets a vote. Guess what, every coach in the league has seen lots of rbbc. Just because a rookie didn’t play 90% of the time in his first half a season doesn’t prove much. As for Anderson, he was left for dead and cut by multiple teams until having some good games for the rams. I forget which but some stat sites had the rams run blocking as the best they ever charted. They made him look good. He’s not a serious threat, he’s a backup.
I'm not sure if Johnson can handle a huge workload but he looked good last year and the guys behind him are amongst the weakest backups in the league. I see a lot of upside and not much downside other than injury, which is always a risk.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
If they abandoned any risk he’d be an early second round pick. Kamara had about 5 touches the other day. That’s the most I’ve seen for a 3 down back so far. None of the preseason usage means anything as far as predicting 300 plus touches. They’re just sorting out the backup rbs.
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Penguin
Footballguy
Context Matters @dwainmcfarland
#Lions Preseason Week 2 Offense Report (1/5)
Stafford and receivers did not play, but starting offensive line played four drives.
Kerryon Johnson never saw a third down.
1st Drive 3rd & 12 - C.J. Anderson (max pro situation)
2nd Drive 3rd & 4 - C.J. Anderson
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (2/5)
3rd Drive All C.J. Anderson including 3rd & 4 4th Drive
Kerryon took all downs except 3rd & 11 - Ty Johnson FWIW
Matt Patricia has stated his number one goal for his backs is keeping them all healthy THROUGH the season.
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (3/5)
With a heavy Kerryon Johnson heart I have to say this might really be something.
1) Fits Patricia MO - rotated lesser backs last season & has exposure to specialized roles from NE days
2) Specialization trends tend to hold more value in preseason
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (4/5)
We very well could be dealing with Kerryon as a 1st & 2nd down back with C.J. Anderson and Ty Johnson getting much of 3rd down passing looks.
C.J. Anderson could also be working in about every third drive or so to keep Kerryon fresh.
#Lions Preseason Week 2 Offense Report (1/5)
Stafford and receivers did not play, but starting offensive line played four drives.
Kerryon Johnson never saw a third down.
1st Drive 3rd & 12 - C.J. Anderson (max pro situation)
2nd Drive 3rd & 4 - C.J. Anderson
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (2/5)
3rd Drive All C.J. Anderson including 3rd & 4 4th Drive
Kerryon took all downs except 3rd & 11 - Ty Johnson FWIW
Matt Patricia has stated his number one goal for his backs is keeping them all healthy THROUGH the season.
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (3/5)
With a heavy Kerryon Johnson heart I have to say this might really be something.
1) Fits Patricia MO - rotated lesser backs last season & has exposure to specialized roles from NE days
2) Specialization trends tend to hold more value in preseason
#Lions Preseason Week 2 (4/5)
We very well could be dealing with Kerryon as a 1st & 2nd down back with C.J. Anderson and Ty Johnson getting much of 3rd down passing looks.
C.J. Anderson could also be working in about every third drive or so to keep Kerryon fresh.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Running backs get few stats on 3rd down. 3-down backs get the most points because they get all of the 1st and 2nd down snaps. Gurley had 321 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs last year. He had 34 fantasy points on 3rd downs. Gurley only had 4 receptions for 20 yards on 3rd downs.
CJ is a good power rusher and a bad receiver. PFF gave him the 7th highest overall grade for a running back in 2017. Last year, he was a very effective rusher for the Rams with a PFF run grade of 78.1. Most coaches want their lead back to have receiving abilities so Anderson hasn't garnered much interest from teams to be a lead back. But some, like Belichick, don't care. Nobody knows what Patricia wants but the fact that they signed Blount last year and CJ this year might indicate that he believes in Belichick's method of a running back division of labor. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Fantasy owners' belief that Kerryon will be a workhorse is based on virtually nothing.
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ZWK
Footballguy
Last year, Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey, Zeke, and Kamara combined to score
But really when people talk about "3 down backs" they mean guys who are on the field regardless of situation. That includes pass heavy situations like 2 minute drills or when down by multiple scores in the 2nd half, as well as 3rd & long. It also includes short yardage situations like 1st & goal from the 1 along with 3rd & short. The highest fantasy value RB touches are on the goal line and in the passing game, so there is a lot of fantasy value at stake in having a RB involved in these sorts of situations (see: MJD vs. Fred Taylor).
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
McCaffrey had 58 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 323.3 points on 1st and 2nd downs.
Barkley had 50.7 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 323 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs.
Zeke had 68.4 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 261.9 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs.
Gurley had 34 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 321 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs.
Kamara had 68 fantasy points on 3rd downs 233.1 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs.
Collectively that's 279.1 fantasy points on 3rd downs of a total of 1741.5 fantasy points. So that is 16% of their fantasy points coming on 3rd downs. And the 16% figure is a little skewed because Kamara's stats were slanted the most toward 3rd down points but he wasn't a 3-down back. He played 62% of snaps and Mark Ingram had a total of 12.7 fantasy points on 3rd downs. Kamara was the 3rd down back but lost a lot of early snaps to Ingram (Ingram had 33% of total offensive snaps). And Kerryon not being a "3-down back" wouldn't mean that he never played on 3rd downs. So at most, he would probably lose about 10% of his fantasy points by losing snaps to a 3rd down specialist. Not a big deal. Losing 40% of total snaps to CJ Anderson would have a much greater impact on Kerryon's fantasy points. But maybe he'll lose 40% of total snaps to CJ and 10% of snaps to a 3rd down specialist. Kerryon getting 50% or less of offensive snaps is a definite possibility.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
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Kerryon was getting hit in the backfield the entire game.
If it wasn't for his consistent tackle breaking his YPC may have been negative.
It felt like every time he was met in the backfield he would spin out of the first tackle.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
A lot of worry in the early season that Kerryon would not get the full complement of carries as the team didn't see him as a workhorse back.
This game was decidedly all Kerryon. In terms of attempts by backs, Kerryon's share has gone from 55% to 50% to 80% this past weekend
Do we think that share load is a trend that will continue going forward? Or will the carries still be somewhat distributed, with Ty seeing additional work, and McKissic seeing some passing downs?
Skoo
Footballguy
TartanLion
Footballguy
He’ll be okay, we’ve faced two pretty decent fronts last two weeks. He got all the goal line looks and got the touches. There will be better weeks to come. We also haven’t been running him on some outside stuff so far where he excels - think there will be more of that as we go forward.
Hes sat one bench behind Bell, Cook, Ingram so far ( went RB nuts in draft ), but I’ll be starting him against the Chiefs - we may be behind a lot but he’ll get receptions and any stuff near the line
Hes sat one bench behind Bell, Cook, Ingram so far ( went RB nuts in draft ), but I’ll be starting him against the Chiefs - we may be behind a lot but he’ll get receptions and any stuff near the line
Football Jones
Footballguy
Kerryon is one of those RBs who's on the fringe as far as being a safe feature back. He's got redeeming qualities, but his overall lack of upside (from an NFL standpoint) could be his downfall. KJ's most immediate threat is Ty Johnson, a more dynamic player as a runner/receiver. McKissic is a gadget guy (his long run was a reverse).
Redraft-wise, KJ has a decent chance to remain the starter & get a quality number of touches, but I'm not nearly as confident past 2019. The best bet is stashing TJ as opposed to paying for KJ if that makes sense.
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Let's slow the Ty Johnson hype and let things play out before we start throwing out definitive terms regarding Ty being a more 'dynamic runner and receiver'.
Timed speed faster? Yes.
Long speed faster? Possibly.
More 'Dynamic runner and receiver'? Mmm. Not yet.
Football Jones
Footballguy
It’s really not about hype. While I’ve said TJ makes a great stash, he’s far from a sure thing.
This is really more about KJ being a fringe long-term asset. It could go either way with him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I definitely agree that KJ could go either way, but I don't get the notion that he has limited upside in terms of how dynamic he is.
He was extremely dynamic last year when he had some room to run. I went out and bought shares of Kerryon and Cook this offseason because I thought they looked similarly dynamic last year and were underrated based on their situations. Granted he lacks the long speed of Cook, but he is surprisingly dynamic making cuts.
My biggest concern with him is that he picks up another nagging injury and just kind of ends up with a label of not being able to ever be a lead back. But his ability/upside if he gets lead work on a decent team is not a concern for me.
formerfourdigit
Footballguy
I feel like it's a good time to buy. They stuck with the run even though it was tough sledding all day. KJ looks to be the feature back. Stafford was good enough to keep drives alive this year with more weapons in the passing game. Philly run D is stout, it's not just Detroit that has struggled against them. I am going to be making some offers this week I think. KJ was making guys miss yesterday, he looks fine to me.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I get it. I mean, he definitely has some things going for him.
For me, KJ doesn't have the overall skill set that makes you feel like he's a safe long-term bet. KJ is just below that (or on the fringe), IMO.
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This week will be telling.
At home. Against KC's offense.
This is where Patricia has got to slow the tempo and pound K. Johnson. And afte what Ingram did on the ground in KC, if KJ does squat...not good.
And it will be interesting to see what KJ does if (or maybe it's when) DET falls behind Mahommes.
At home. Against KC's offense.
This is where Patricia has got to slow the tempo and pound K. Johnson. And afte what Ingram did on the ground in KC, if KJ does squat...not good.
And it will be interesting to see what KJ does if (or maybe it's when) DET falls behind Mahommes.
Why sell low? At least wait for a big game. You won't get his actual value at this point. His usage is going up and he won't be facing the eagles run defense every week.
mozzy84
Footballguy
I sold yesterday for calvin ridley. Didn't work out too well yesterday anyways but I think long run it should be good. His schedule does look pretty rough and I don't think he's looked great either.
https://twitter.com/erikschlitt/status/1176185370196807681
KJ faced 8+ in the box on 60% of the snaps. Highest in the league.
KJ faced 8+ in the box on 60% of the snaps. Highest in the league.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Headed to IR. Other Johnson or McKissic or avoid like the plague?
RealReactions
Footballguy
Just got put on IR. Everyone is going to blow their FAAB for ty. Pretty pissed at myself for cutting him this week for byes.
He has to miss 8 games. So I guess he'd be available for week 16, so pretty much droppable unless you would want to start him in the championship in his first week back (or if you're afraid someone else will).
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