tangfoot said:
Yes, let's talk about points. Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.
All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority. I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad.
To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:
Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5
Week 17 - RB31
Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games. The rest of his season was literally a #### show. ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)
He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3. These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.
Great post, tangfoot, super data breakdown.
Makes me also wonder how the weekly split distribution looks for other backs in the Top 10 from last year. While it may not be as pronounced as Murray's, would imagine that for many other T10 backs, you will see a few single games over the course of the year that really pump up end of year totals, with a few stinkers thrown in as well.
The salient thing tangfoot points out is that Murray may not be as dependable of an option as other Top 10 backs were last season. That may be. But looking forward, I think the changes this team has made, and the continued improvement, will only help Murray, not hamper him. I can't see Murray regressing hard coming into this season, and while it may be presumptuous to call last season's stats his floor, I don't see any reason why Murray can't perform at that level or better this year.
In 2014, despite drafting Mack, Raiders allowed the most points in the league, having by far the worst D -- I don't think we won a game until WK12, and were eliminated from playoff contention a week or so beforehand. We were behind a lot, and threw a lot, essentially forced into a one-dimensional game.
IN 2015, Del Rio came aboard, but still we more pass-focused leveraging Amari Cooper. Cooper had three 100 yard games in the first 6. Carr threw 19 TDs through the first 8 games, with 5 games with 3+ TDs through WK13 -- he ended up being 3 or so TDs away from the franchise record. Our D still struggled to hold the line, letting opponents run over them -- during just three games, they allowed opposing backs to average 189 ypg. And we lost more than a few games letting teams come back on us in the 4th Q.
The point? Our running game was far from the focus of the offense, which was highly off-balanced towards the pass. And still Murray racked up 1K.
We should be much more improved on D this year with a shored up secondary. Better still, the addition of Osemele gives us a top Oline that will help give much more balance to our attack and improve our running game.
I see continued upward trajectory and no sign why Murray can't also have the same improvement going into this year. The addition of a guy like DWash only helps the offense. Won't deny that there is a chance DWash eats into touches if he also starts flashing (which I'd love as a Raider fan) -- the tide raises all boats. But we still have to see how he does on game day.
Until then, Murray is a solid, effective, and successful back who should only get better along with the team. I'm buying not expecting solid RB1 numbers every week, but as an RB2 with very tangible RB1 upside any given week. Will also be looking at Washington as cuff, and his value could become even more solid in PPRs -- but again, we will need to see how the team utilizes him and how he performs into the season. I don't think he pushes Murray for the job as soon as others seem to expect.