What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Latavius Murray, BUF (1 Viewer)

I have to chime in and say love when people come to say that a guy who never played a professional down has a much more well rounded skill set. (sarcasm) Opinion or not, that isnt even really able to be judged at this point. One day people will realize pro is different from college ball and that the two cant even really be compared.

 
I have to chime in and say love when people come to say that a guy who never played a professional down has a much more well rounded skill set. (sarcasm) Opinion or not, that isnt even really able to be judged at this point. One day people will realize pro is different from college ball and that the two cant even really be compared.
I was thinking the same thing.  I know Murray is not great but he is good.  It seems a little early to worry about Washington stealing a lion's share of receptions or even a bunch of carries.  Let's wait until we see what Washington can do on Sundays.   

 
What did you sell him for?  Looks like the window to buy low has closed, I probably should have been a little more aggressive in leagues I have a shot in.  Maybe Washington will get hot in camp and people will be looking for exit value on Murray.
Julius Thomas, but needed a TE and have bunch of RB options. I think it was a good deal in the long run, but you never know how these trades end up. 

 
I have to chime in and say love when people come to say that a guy who never played a professional down has a much more well rounded skill set. (sarcasm) Opinion or not, that isnt even really able to be judged at this point. One day people will realize pro is different from college ball and that the two cant even really be compared.
Not sure I agree with this. I mean using this logic we can never compare rookies to anyone because they haven't played yet, so you can't discuss their chances of unseating a vet. I enjoy hearing what people think rooks will do in the pros, and think it's an important part of scouting while looking for 2nd/3rd/4th round dynasty picks. Obviously it's all opinion, but to not be able to discuss the merits of a rookies skills takes away from the discussion immensely IMO. 

BTW, I'm a Washington fan, don't know if he'll beat out Murray but I do think he has what it takes to be successful at the next level. 

 
I have to chime in and say love when people come to say that a guy who never played a professional down has a much more well rounded skill set. (sarcasm) Opinion or not, that isnt even really able to be judged at this point. One day people will realize pro is different from college ball and that the two cant even really be compared.
I was thinking the same thing.  I know Murray is not great but he is good.  It seems a little early to worry about Washington stealing a lion's share of receptions or even a bunch of carries.  Let's wait until we see what Washington can do on Sundays.   
He doesn't have to steal a lion's share and a bunch to ruin Murray's value though, he just needs to take 5 carries a game from him and that's 80 fewer carries and say 20 catches - how valuable can Murray be losing 100 touches?

 
Why do people worry about the value of a player? Unless you are trading him, what does value matter? Does their value now mean what points they will score this season? What was Hills value going into last year? What was Ivorys? Seems to be a tradition of sorts for people to over react to a lot this time of year. If you dont value a good RB because of story lines you heard and what ifs, tell me about the Doug Martin story line.

 
Why do people worry about the value of a player? Unless you are trading him, what does value matter? Does their value now mean what points they will score this season? What was Hills value going into last year? What was Ivorys? Seems to be a tradition of sorts for people to over react to a lot this time of year. If you dont value a good RB because of story lines you heard and what ifs, tell me about the Doug Martin story line.
Of course people care about value. Everyone wants to know if they should buy/sell a player or not. I was curious about his value for the exact reason that there aren't very many story lines around him other than the familiar one of "Oakland wants to attract a big name back for the second year straight and failed". The overall silence coupled with their O-line being newly minted as the gold standard makes me wonder if he is a value that is being over looked right now because he's not a in the spotlight.

As dynasty players who are essentially trying to predict the future, you have to react to any news that comes out as well as any lack of news. Yes people overreact, I thought HIll was a complete rising star and that Ivory would be a dud despite offseason rumblings of him being good. On the flip side, I chose to take Martin's news to the bank and picked him in my drafts expecting the reborn player I got. The point is, talking value helps us quantify how we should react to the news surrounding a player.

On topic, I think owning both Murray and Washington is the way to go this year but unless one of them busts a serious move, I'm thinking they draft a new guy to take over next year

 
Drafting a guy in the 5th and not doing anything else to address the RB position when looked at in a vacuum isn't exactly a clear indication they are unhappy with Murray.

 
Drafting a guy in the 5th and not doing anything else to address the RB position when looked at in a vacuum isn't exactly a clear indication they are unhappy with Murray.
No it doesn't but when you factor in that they've tried to upgrade from him 2 years straight in free agency and struck out, it paints a slightly different picture. I think drafting Washington in the 5th indicates that they intend to let Murray be in the driver's seat again this year. They drafted someone to compliment him on 3rd down and to spell him in Washington. However, Washington is also a high scoring player in terms of his SPARQ score so they obviously likely picked him for his upside. The plan isn't for him to take the job but I'm sure it's an option down the road if he shows up and Murray doesn't. Murray got the vote of confidence in the draft but it probably comes with a short leash

 
I think at this point he's a value.  There's a lot to like. He's a 1,000 yard rusher,  in a contract year, on an ascending team, with an improved line. 

Consider: Washington may be able to help,  may be really good, but it's doubtful he takes the job in camp.  So what if things go well for Oakland, as everyone predicts? What if that line is so good,  it makes Latavius look better then he is? 

The Raiders are unlikely to rock the boat.  He's a veteran, if he's holding it down, he'll get most of the work.

Can Washington block?? Does anyone really love him,  or do we want to,  because we don't love Latavius? What if Washington isn't good?? Well,  then Latavius will get all the work he can handle. 

I think it's an attractive handcuff situation. A 4th or 5th and a 12th or 13th for Raiders backfield sounds good to me.  

 
5th round pick in a weak overall class for RB's and people are claiming he can easily beat out Murray who has proved to be decent?  Yeah I'll take the bird in the hand please.  

 
^^^He's a Reggie McKenzie 5th rounder, who was considered a head scratcher because he was taken ahead of Alex Collins and Paul Perkins, and a round or two ahead of where he was being projected by the media. That elevates him in my eyes. Reggie Mac was clearly targeting him, probably in this exact round. 

And let's not get into lazy round pedigree analysis. Reggie's been finding gems in the later rounds every year... He took Lat in the 6th round!

But don't get me wrong. Lat could very well burst out of the fantasy gates to start the season, given the OL and defense, but DWash has juice. He's likely to have a significant role, even early on, and Lat is an above avg injury risk for the full season, given his running style (upright, laterally stiff) and history.

I like the idea of getting Lat in the mid rounds as long as you handcuff him with DWash and temper your expectations, especially in ppr. I just don't think he'll be there in rd 5/6, which is when I'd be most comfortable taking him.

 
WheelsUp said:
Why do people worry about the value of a player? Unless you are trading him, what does value matter? Does their value now mean what points they will score this season? What was Hills value going into last year? What was Ivorys? Seems to be a tradition of sorts for people to over react to a lot this time of year. If you dont value a good RB because of story lines you heard and what ifs, tell me about the Doug Martin story line.
So you'd like a message board left completely blank during the offseason - and then we can just fill in with game recaps for each player after each week is played?

 
LawFitz said:
^^^He's a Reggie McKenzie 5th rounder, who was considered a head scratcher because he was taken ahead of Alex Collins and Paul Perkins, and a round or two ahead of where he was being projected by the media. That elevates him in my eyes. Reggie Mac was clearly targeting him, probably in this exact round. 

And let's not get into lazy round pedigree analysis. Reggie's been finding gems in the later rounds every year... He took Lat in the 6th round!

But don't get me wrong. Lat could very well burst out of the fantasy gates to start the season, given the OL and defense, but DWash has juice. He's likely to have a significant role, even early on, and Lat is an above avg injury risk for the full season, given his running style (upright, laterally stiff) and history.

I like the idea of getting Lat in the mid rounds as long as you handcuff him with DWash and temper your expectations, especially in ppr. I just don't think he'll be there in rd 5/6, which is when I'd be most comfortable taking him.
You can say this about almost all GM's... They find later round steals at X position.  It's a useless measuring stick, because there is no such thing as a 100% success rate.  The fact is he was a 5th round pick by the ENTIRE NFL, not just 1 GM.  It's not lazy, it's a fact.  Every Gm has a good find in the later rounds, that doesn't make them gods among picking them.  

I honestly know very little about Washington but there is a good incumbent starter on that team with a good o-line so I find it very hard to believe he'll be anything more than a role player.  

 
^^^ I agree that DWash will be a role player. His role will take away a good deal of Lat's ppr value early in the year and possibly a lot more if (when?) Lat gets dinged up.

 
gabes1919 said:
No it doesn't but when you factor in that they've tried to upgrade from him 2 years straight in free agency and struck out, it paints a slightly different picture. I think drafting Washington in the 5th indicates that they intend to let Murray be in the driver's seat again this year. They drafted someone to compliment him on 3rd down and to spell him in Washington. However, Washington is also a high scoring player in terms of his SPARQ score so they obviously likely picked him for his upside. The plan isn't for him to take the job but I'm sure it's an option down the road if he shows up and Murray doesn't. Murray got the vote of confidence in the draft but it probably comes with a short leash
I know they pursued DeMarco last year (more like DeMarco's agent used Oakland to land a bigger contract with Philly) but who was the big name FA they pursued this offseason?  The big names were Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Matt Forte & Chris Ivory.  Did Oakland make a run at any of those guys?

 
I know they pursued DeMarco last year (more like DeMarco's agent used Oakland to land a bigger contract with Philly) but who was the big name FA they pursued this offseason?  The big names were Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Matt Forte & Chris Ivory.  Did Oakland make a run at any of those guys?
I'm not 100% on who it was but I seem to recall they were hard after Martin and had some interest in Ivory too. And yeah, they were all over Demarco last year

 
I'm not 100% on who it was but I seem to recall they were hard after Martin and had some interest in Ivory too. And yeah, they were all over Demarco last year
From what I can find there was one rumor coming from Rand Getlin (should I know who that is?) suggesting that the Raiders were interested in Martin, that hot take was picked up by multiple outlets, one of which speculated the interest in Ivory as well.  But I can't find anything else substantive about talks about contracts or suggestions that Martin (or Ivory) even visited the Raiders.  I would think there would be more to be found if they went "hard after Martin" (or Ivory).  I didn't look all that hard to find more though so there might be more out there.

‏@Rand_Getlin

Thought Oakland was done? I'm told they are now entering the Doug Martin sweepstakes. He could be scary behind that upgraded offensive line.

— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Adam Caplan suggested Oakland was "1 of a bunch of teams interested in Ivory" but that is the only place I found the rumor and considering the Raiders had so much cap space it seemed like idle speculation trying to link the Raiders (or the Jags) with every free agent.

 
What was Jamaal Charles value heading into the season?
What was it after week 8?

You discuss value, I'll discuss points and what really helps win fantasy matches. Does starting a guy just because he has high value assure I get high points?
Murray may not have high value, but he was Top 10 in points, which mattered more?

Edit: To bang home that hype and value are more a product of story lines... Remember when Sims was going to take Martins job last year?

They are at it again, this must hurt Martins value.

Pewter Report's Mark Cook "really believe(s)" Charles Sims will see an increase in carries in 2016.
At the Combine, coach Dirk Koetter called Sims "an every-down back, if need be." Although he benefited from facing softer sub-package fronts while Doug Martin tangled more with base defenses, Sims made the most of his 2015 rushing chances by averaging 4.94 YPC. Cook expects Sims' increased role to "cut into Martin's total yardage." Cook still anticipates Martin being a "focal point of the offense," of course. Sims is an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick. He offers standalone flex value and could explode if Martin goes down.
Source: Pewter Report Jun 22 - 1:20 PM

Martins value just took a hit, I mean this is the same rhetoric that is making Murray lose value.

I hate defending players I do not own or on teams I dislike, but this is the same story just different year and different player.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You discuss value, I'll discuss points and what really helps win fantasy matches. Does starting a guy just because he has high value assure I get high points?
Murray may not have high value, but he was Top 10 in points, which mattered more?
Yes, let's talk about points.  Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.

All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority.  I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad. 

To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:

Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5

Week 17 - RB31

Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games.  The rest of his season was literally a #### show.  ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)

He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3.  These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yes, let's talk about points.  Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.

All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority.  I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad. 

To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:

Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5

Week 17 - RB31

Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games.  The rest of his season was literally a #### show.  ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)

He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3.  These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.
Man, great post.  

I thought he did better than that.  

 
Yes, let's talk about points.  Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.

All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority.  I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad. 

To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:

Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5

Week 17 - RB31

Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games.  The rest of his season was literally a #### show.  ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)

He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3.  These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.
Latavius was the 8th best RB in our league, but if you look at avg.  points he was 17th. It pretty much sums up why we sold him. I really like him and thought he could do better, but I have to admit that I was disappointed. Not because he sucked, but because I didn't see ANYTHING that would make feel like he's going to be there for a long time. They might run with him this year, but the next years rookie RB group is so good, that I really doubt he will be the lead back after this year (and no, I shouldn't think that far). And I don't like one bit coaches comments about who they don't want him to be three down back. It's not like he will do better will less opportunities, right? I still like him this year as re-draft player and I like Washinton too. If I had to choose one RB from this team in dynasty it would not be Latavius. 

 
What was Jamaal Charles value heading into the season?
What was it after week 8?

You discuss value, I'll discuss points and what really helps win fantasy matches. Does starting a guy just because he has high value assure I get high points?
Murray may not have high value, but he was Top 10 in points, which mattered more?

Edit: To bang home that hype and value are more a product of story lines... Remember when Sims was going to take Martins job last year?

They are at it again, this must hurt Martins value.

Pewter Report's Mark Cook "really believe(s)" Charles Sims will see an increase in carries in 2016.
At the Combine, coach Dirk Koetter called Sims "an every-down back, if need be." Although he benefited from facing softer sub-package fronts while Doug Martin tangled more with base defenses, Sims made the most of his 2015 rushing chances by averaging 4.94 YPC. Cook expects Sims' increased role to "cut into Martin's total yardage." Cook still anticipates Martin being a "focal point of the offense," of course. Sims is an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick. He offers standalone flex value and could explode if Martin goes down.
Source: Pewter Report Jun 22 - 1:20 PM

Martins value just took a hit, I mean this is the same rhetoric that is making Murray lose value.

I hate defending players I do not own or on teams I dislike, but this is the same story just different year and different player.
What you aren't grasping is that this is off season dynasty talk. There are no points, it's all story line and value. How does the consensus view a guy because I want to use that to my advantage to either trade him, trade for him, or hold him. Devonta Freeman lost a ton of value in the offseason last year because of Tevin Coleman being drafted. As a result, believers in Freeman got to buy him at a massive discount and reaped the benefits. Murray's value and how we expect Murray to do next year are 2 correlated but ultimately separate things. I think the problem is that you don't get that this is a dynasty discussion.

As an example, Adrian Peterson finished top 3 last year. Todd Gurley finished as an RB1 but near the back end, not the top like Peterson. By your logic, I should have traded away any and all Gurley shares for Peterson because he was scoring more points.

We understand your dig with this value talk, much of it is rumor and hearsay that may or may not actually have an effect on the football field. But at this point in the off season, that is all dynasty owners have to try and gauge where they can get a guy for a cheap, where they should sell high, and where they should be holding. And I know it was confirmed before my post but yeah, I wouldn't have wanted Murray all year. He hit RB1 status the same way Gore did last year, not by being outstanding, but simply by being one of the last men standing. He was not a weekly RB1

 
And week 16, he won someone a title.
You know who else could've done that in week 16? Brandon Weedon, Mike Gillislee, and Dontrelle Inman. They were all 1s at their position in week 16. I'd be absolutely shocked if more than 1% of leagues even had Weedon rostered let alone starting.

 
Yes, let's talk about points.  Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.

All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority.  I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad. 

To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:

Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5

Week 17 - RB31

Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games.  The rest of his season was literally a #### show.  ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)

He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3.  These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.
:thumbup:

 
^^^ I agree that DWash will be a role player. His role will take away a good deal of Lat's ppr value early in the year and possibly a lot more if (when?) Lat gets dinged up.
Or maybe a much bigger role?

DeAndre Washington mixed in with Raiders 1s

 
Fifth-round pick DeAndre Washington mixed in with the Raiders' first-team offense at minicamp.
"We're putting him in different situations to get a feel for his strengths and how we can tailor plays, tailor situations so he can really flash for us," said OC Bill Musgrave. "He's going to be good in first, second, or third down." Immediately after the draft, GM Reggie McKenzie called Washington a "complete back" with the ability to contribute in all phases. The Raiders were not pleased with Latavius Murray last year, particularly in the second half of the season. A 5-foot-8, 204-pound prospect with 4.49 speed and 124 receptions on his college resume, Washington is a candidate for a significant rookie-year role. Jun 22 - 11:04 PM
 
 
He's the #2 tailback (unless you are a Reece truther-which is adorable).

He was bound to get some work with the 1's.   :shrug:
True, but I think the detail that is significant is that they are labeling Washington a 3 down back while going out of their way to not label Murray as a "complete back."

 
What was Joe Randle's value this time last year, and Doug Martin's? Asking for a friend.
Murray may not be the best RB, but giving up on a 1000 yard back because of a 5th rounder and June hype is the exact thing that has you buying on Randle and passing on Martin than looking like you never played this game before come week 9.

 
Looks like cracked top 10 due to being one of the few backs to play the whole season.


What was Joe Randle's value this time last year, and Doug Martin's? Asking for a friend.
Murray may not be the best RB, but giving up on a 1000 yard back because of a 5th rounder and June hype is the exact thing that has you buying on Randle and passing on Martin than looking like you never played this game before come week 9.
I think both of these are true

 
Who isn't calling Murray a complete back?  
McKenzie for one. The best I quote I can find is Reggie remarking on his size and speed. Mularkey insinuated, about a month ago that he misused Murray. Murray was a 3 down back last year. I am not hearing him labeled as a 3 down back or complete back, while both labels have been placed on Washington.

 
McKenzie for one. The best I quote I can find is Reggie remarking on his size and speed. Mularkey insinuated, about a month ago that he misused Murray. Murray was a 3 down back last year. I am not hearing him labeled as a 3 down back or complete back, while both labels have been placed on Washington.
Does it help that Murray has actually performed as a 3 down back?  

 
massraider said:
Does it help that Murray has actually performed as a 3 down back?  
So have other backs that shouldn't be considered 3 down backs. Maybe I am imagining it, but they don't seem happy using him as a 3 down back.

 
So have other backs that shouldn't be considered 3 down backs. Maybe I am imagining it, but they don't seem happy using him as a 3 down back.
I don't think that the team thinks he's Walter Payton.  Going back to his rookie year, they have been pretty public about challenging him.  

But until Washington proves anything at all, we should assume Murray is getting most of the work.  McKenzie saying pleasant things after the draft is nice, but after the draft, everyone sounds like a player.  

As I said above, the odds are stacked, pretty high, against a 5th round RB beating out a starter in his prime. 

I'm ready to love Washington.  Hope he's MJD.  Hope he's Marshall Faulk.  Heck, or Sproles.  But I believe Murray is good enough to look good behind that line, and I think it takes an injury for Washington to steal a lot of snaps.  

The Raiders also have Reece and Helu competing for those 3rd down snaps, so Washington has obstacles in front of him for even that work.  

 
Pile my biased opinion on top of all these others, but I think Washington will push Murray for his job, not a role. 

Helu is a capable third down back, and Washington is a complete back, he brings more to the table than Murray if he can pick up the big game. If not they will use Murray and look for a replacement yet again next year.

 
WheelsUp said:
What was Joe Randle's value this time last year, and Doug Martin's? Asking for a friend.
Murray may not be the best RB, but giving up on a 1000 yard back because of a 5th rounder and June hype is the exact thing that has you buying on Randle and passing on Martin than looking like you never played this game before come week 9.
How about giving up on a 1000 yard back because the only way his value goes up more than it is now is if he surpasses that and there is evidence that suggest he might not? That evidence being that they now have 2 3rd down backs on their roster who will at least take some of that work from him if not some of his early down work too. You seem to forget that Martin had 2 bad years straight prior to this one whereas Randle was averaging 6 ypc. Maybe you bought on Randle and not Martin but that is not the case for everyone. Smart people sold Randle (or at least didn't buy more when his value skyrocketed) and even smarter people got on Martin when he was cheap or just after there was rumbling of him being in great form (when he was still cheap).

 
I apologize for my snark in advance. But those are beautiful excuses for someone trying to rationalize why a backup who has never played should start. I am not even a Murray fan or owner and I am not a Raiders fan in the least (Go J-E-T-S!), but the Washington love caught my eye and thats strange because its nothing unusual, people always love the backup until the backup plays and sucks. Then they make excuses about smart people sold, instead of just saying they made a terrible lapse in judgement and their opinion was as always in what the majority says instead of what could really play out. Same story, different year and different player. The majority is reality, until the season starts.

While there are anomaly, being drafted in the 5th doesnt guarantee you a roster spot let alone a starting gig. I would love to continue the discussion seriously, but until this inflated life of Washington is back on Earth, we really cant.

Washington is sooo good, teams passed on him multiple times and now he is a starting RB without ever playing a down? I am supposed to take that talk seriously in a community full of football guys? I know Murray was drafted late, but no one was naming him starter before training camp.

I wish Washington the best of luck and if Murray stumbles I can see him getting some PT, why not? But this is getting out of control.

 
tangfoot said:
Yes, let's talk about points.  Specifically, let's talk about how Murray's points stacked up against the rest of the players at his position.

All off-season I've been hearing about how Murray finished as a top 10 RB, as if that is some magical threshold which determines fantasy superiority.  I have had to look a few different times to verify that it was true, because my memory of 2015 was that he was really, really bad. 

To verify this, I did the legwork and found the following week by week splits:

Week 1 - RB11
Week 2 - RB6
Week 3 - RB9
Week 4 - RB32
Week 5 - RB36
Week 7 - RB16
Week 8 - RB14
Week 9 - RB28
Week 10 - RB20
Week 11 - RB32
Week 12 - RB31
Week 13 - RB15
Week 14 - RB67
Week 15 - RB31
Week 16 - RB5

Week 17 - RB31

Murray stated out GREAT, notching up RB1 weeks in each of his first three games.  The rest of his season was literally a #### show.  ONE RB1 week from Week 4 - 16 (and while his blowup performance in what equates to the fantasy football superbowl is awesome, who the hell risked starting him unless they were literally down to zero other options?)

He finished the season as an RB3, low RB2, low RB3, low RB3, high RB2, RB ####### 6, and a low RB3.  These are TERRIBLE performances and tell the story of a fantasy afterthought, or emergency WTF fill-in.
Great post, tangfoot, super data breakdown.

Makes me also wonder how the weekly split distribution looks for other backs in the Top 10 from last year. While it may not be as pronounced as Murray's, would imagine that for many other T10 backs, you will see a few single games over the course of the year that really pump up end of year totals, with a few stinkers thrown in as well.

The salient thing tangfoot points out is that Murray may not be as dependable of an option as other Top 10 backs were last season. That may be. But looking forward, I think the changes this team has made, and the continued improvement, will only help Murray, not hamper him. I can't see Murray regressing hard coming into this season, and while it may be presumptuous to call last season's stats his floor, I don't see any reason why Murray can't perform at that level or better this year.

In 2014, despite drafting Mack, Raiders allowed the most points in the league, having by far the worst D -- I don't think we won a game until WK12, and were eliminated from playoff contention a week or so beforehand. We were behind a lot, and threw a lot, essentially forced into a one-dimensional game.

IN 2015, Del Rio came aboard, but still we more pass-focused leveraging Amari Cooper. Cooper had three 100 yard games in the first 6. Carr threw 19 TDs through the first 8 games, with 5 games with 3+ TDs through WK13 -- he ended up being 3 or so TDs away from the franchise record. Our D still struggled to hold the line, letting opponents run over them -- during just three games, they allowed opposing backs to average 189 ypg. And we lost more than a few games letting teams come back on us in the 4th Q.

The point? Our running game was far from the focus of the offense, which was highly off-balanced towards the pass. And still Murray racked up 1K.

We should be much more improved on D this year with a shored up secondary. Better still, the addition of Osemele gives us a top Oline that will help give much more balance to our attack and improve our running game.

I see continued upward trajectory and no sign why Murray can't also have the same improvement going into this year. The addition of a guy like DWash only helps the offense. Won't deny that there is a chance DWash eats into touches if he also starts flashing (which I'd love as a Raider fan) -- the tide raises all boats. But we still have to see how he does on game day.

Until then, Murray is a solid, effective, and successful back who should only get better along with the team. I'm buying not expecting solid RB1 numbers every week, but as an RB2 with very tangible RB1 upside any given week. Will also be looking at Washington as cuff, and his value could become even more solid in PPRs -- but again, we will need to see how the team utilizes him and how he performs into the season. I don't think he pushes Murray for the job as soon as others seem to expect.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
WheelsUp said:
What was Joe Randle's value this time last year, and Doug Martin's? Asking for a friend.
Murray may not be the best RB, but giving up on a 1000 yard back because of a 5th rounder and June hype is the exact thing that has you buying on Randle and passing on Martin than looking like you never played this game before come week 9.
Maybe your friend is asking because he's lamenting not knowing their values a year ago.  Or he's realizing that had he known their values he could have traded Randle for Martin.

P.S. That's why dynasty players care about value.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Great post, tangfoot, super data breakdown.

Makes me also wonder how the weekly split distribution looks for other backs in the Top 10 from last year. While it may not be as pronounced as Murray's, would imagine that for many other T10 backs, you will see a few single games over the course of the year that really pump up end of year totals, with a few stinkers thrown in as well.

The salient thing tangfoot points out is that Murray may not be as dependable of an option as other Top 10 backs were last season. That may be. But looking forward, I think the changes this team has made, and the continued improvement, will only help Murray, not hamper him. I can't see Murray regressing hard coming into this season, and while it may be presumptuous to call last season's stats his floor, I don't see any reason why Murray can't perform at that level or better this year.

In 2014, despite drafting Mack, Raiders allowed the most points in the league, having by far the worst D -- I don't think we won a game until WK12, and were eliminated from playoff contention a week or so beforehand. We were behind a lot, and threw a lot, essentially forced into a one-dimensional game.

IN 2015, Del Rio came aboard, but still we more pass-focused leveraging Amari Cooper. Cooper had three 100 yard games in the first 6. Carr threw 19 TDs through the first 8 games, with 5 games with 3+ TDs through WK13 -- he ended up being 3 or so TDs away from the franchise record. Our D still struggled to hold the line, letting opponents run over them -- during just three games, they allowed opposing backs to average 189 ypg. And we lost more than a few games letting teams come back on us in the 4th Q.

The point? Our running game was far from the focus of the offense, which was highly off-balanced towards the pass. And still Murray racked up 1K.

We should be much more improved on D this year with a shored up secondary. Better still, the addition of Osemele gives us a top Oline that will help give much more balance to our attack and improve our running game.

I see continued upward trajectory and no sign why Murray can't also have the same improvement going into this year. The addition of a guy like DWash only helps the offense. Won't deny that there is a chance DWash eats into touches if he also starts flashing (which I'd love as a Raider fan) -- the tide raises all boats. But we still have to see how he does on game day.

Until then, Murray is a solid, effective, and successful back who should only get better along with the team. I'm buying not expecting solid RB1 numbers every week, but as an RB2 with very tangible RB1 upside any given week. Will also be looking at Washington as cuff, and his value could become even more solid in PPRs -- but again, we will need to see how the team utilizes him and how he performs into the season. I don't think he pushes Murray for the job as soon as others seem to expect.
 

OVR


PLAYER


PTS


AVG


1


2


3


4


5


6


7


8


9


10


11


12


13


14


15


16


STATUS


BYE


1.


18.


Freeman, Devonta ATL RB


301.0


21.50


7.7


15.9


42.3


37.9


32.7


35.6


15.0


19.1


21.9


B


4.3


 


20.3


7.2


23.1


18.0


James W


10


2.


33.


Peterson, Adrian MIN RB


246.9


16.46


8.2


19.2


24.6


19.4


B


6.7


14.0


12.9


22.3


29.6


12.1


32.7


6.4


13.6


6.3


18.9


G Money


5


3.


41.


Woodhead, Danny SDC RB


229.9


15.33


22.2


16.4


7.3


17.8


12.6


12.1


33.1


6.5


23.1


B


2.6


10.7


6.4


4.3


36.0


18.8


Paul C


10


4.


43.


Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB


227.3


15.15


14.2


31.2


0.2


0.5


2.0


-0.1


2.7


15.0


38.5


7.9


B


24.7


19.5


23.1


16.6


31.3


Daniel P


11


5.


45.


Miller, Lamar MIA RB


224.6


14.97


8.5


9.2


9.5


4.6


B


19.8


38.6


14.4


33.1


21.3


7.5


4.3


10.8


20.9


4.4


17.7


Daniel P


5


6.


51.


Martin, Doug TBB RB


214.5


14.30


6.4


9.8


4.6


25.3


36.8


B


20.1


8.8


4.3


14.3


23.5


10.8


15.0


15.6


10.7


8.5


@marvinhward84


6


7.


55.


Gurley, Todd STL RB (R)


208.4


16.03


 


 


2.4


18.1


15.9


B


32.3


23.6


19.9


17.9


10.6


4.0


4.1


27.7


15.9


16.0


Jason W


6


8.


57.


Ingram, Mark NOS RB


203.4


16.95


20.2


12.8


20.9


18.8


9.4


20.6


22.8


15.9


13.6


12.8


B


15.7


19.9


 


 


 


Four Flushers


11


9.


59.


Johnson, David ARI RB (R)


202.9


13.53


12.5


11.5


7.1


18.1


12.6


2.7


4.4


6.8


B


1.8


10.6


10.9


20.0


17.3


44.9


21.7


John C


9


10.


64.


Murray, Latavius OAK RB


195.2


13.01


15.0


17.7


21.9


9.1


8.7


B


15.6


12.9


9.5


12.7


8.8


9.2


19.7


2.7


9.0


22.7


zrbtt


6


11.


65.


Forte, Matt 


 
Wheelsup,

You're making a number of odd arguments in this thread. 

- We can't/shouldn't judge incoming rookies' skills/talents

- Value is unimportant

- A decent week 16 trumps a season of mostly inconsistent RB2/RB3 level production

And now you're ranting about how Washington won't/can't become the starter. Who said he would??? He doesn't have to in order to severely limit Lat's stats, especially if you account for Lat's injury risk/history. Look up the definition of a strawman argument because that's all you're doing with your last post.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top