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RB Latavius Murray, BUF (1 Viewer)

People are funny.  Of course the Raiders drafted another, hopefully, capable RB. They had nothing behind Murray and teams need at least two capable RBs on the roster.

It's not a referendum on Murray all it means is they choose to strengthen the roster.

The off season is incredibly reactionary.

 
I take it these are fantasty points, though not sure what scoring system/parameters are at use. 

Taken at face value, if we (admittedly arbitrarily) call a 10 point fantasy game a solid RB1 performance, Murray had 8 games over that threshold, which is at the bottom tier of the Top 10, but not that far off traditional starters like Doug Martin and Todd Gurley (with 10 over 10 points).

Murray also has the lowest STDV in points with 5 compared to Freeman (11.8), Peterson (8.3), Gurley (9.1) and Martin (8.8).

So while Murray isn't as pure of an RB1 as ADP et al, and had lower average FPs/game (which I think is obvious as he's ranked lower overall), his performance last year was arguably as dependable and less volatile than others in the Top 10.

Add to that fact that in the Top 10, there are 3 backs that I wouldn't call starting backs (Woodhead, DWill, Johnson got their role via injury or used situationally), I think it makes Murray that much more dependable as a guy you know is (and will be) the starter heading into the season.

Definitely eyes open that situation can change over the course of the year, but all of this downtalk on Murray and hype on Washington is fine by me -- just adds to Murray's potential draft value.

 
DeAndre Washington - RB - Raiders

Fifth-round pick DeAndre Washington mixed in with the Raiders' first-team offense at minicamp.

"We're putting him in different situations to get a feel for his strengths and how we can tailor plays, tailor situations so he can really flash for us," said OC Bill Musgrave. "He's going to be good in first, second, or third down." Immediately after the draft, GM Reggie McKenzie called Washington a "complete back" with the ability to contribute in all phases. The Raiders were not satisfied with Latavius Murray last year, particularly in the second half of the season. A 5-foot-8, 204-pound prospect with 4.49 speed and 124 receptions on his college resume, Washington is a candidate for a significant rookie-year role.

 
LawFitz, until you want to take what I say in its actual context that may help.

I said value is irrelevant unless you are trading, points matter more. Does it matter the value of a player if you are not moving him? Does it matter the value of Bell if you are not moving him? Does it matter the value of Golden Tate if you own him and are not moving him? Value is determined by many factors, what team someone is on may increase their perceived value, but not their actual value in the end game. See DeMarco Murray.

You cant and shouldnt judge a 5th round rookie as a starting RB when there is a 1000 yard rusher and starter in front of him and when he has never stepped on the NFL field. That is completely irrational and unreasonable, therefore defeats any real discussion here. If you can say 1000 yards dont matter, I sure can say a 5th round rookie doesnt matter in normal regards.

My week 16 comment was tongue in cheek and was more a smart remark, but as you are clearly taking things out of context this is not a surprise you missed that. My argument is just a football fan who sees people reacting to every news bite as if it is a fact.

I know you are a Washington owner, it screams it. And some have said he is going to be a starter, please read before commenting.

 
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I dont apologize for this snark but I have changed my mind. Murray is worth nothing and has no value and and Washington is the next ProBowl stud because there are stories about how he caught passes in shorts. Ok, I do apologize for that snark.

Perceived value is all that matters.

 
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Being completely unreasonable and irrational about a 5th round rookie taking the world by storm before training camp doesnt either. I even made reference to my snark, calm down and stop acting like you have not been snarky either.

 
LawFitz, until you want to take what I say in its actual context that may help.

I said value is irrelevant unless you are trading, points matter more. Does it matter the value of a player if you are not moving him? Does it matter the value of Bell if you are not moving him? Does it matter the value of Golden Tate if you own him and are not moving him? Value is determined by many factors, what team someone is on may increase their perceived value, but not their actual value in the end game. See DeMarco Murray.

You cant and shouldnt judge a 5th round rookie as a starting RB when there is a 1000 yard rusher and starter in front of him and when he has never stepped on the NFL field. That is completely irrational and unreasonable, therefore defeats any real discussion here. If you can say 1000 yards dont matter, I sure can say a 5th round rookie doesnt matter in normal regards.

My week 16 comment was tongue in cheek and was more a smart remark, but as you are clearly taking things out of context this is not a surprise you missed that. My argument is just a football fan who sees people reacting to every news bite as if it is a fact.
Value has multiple contexts.  People aren't necessarily talking about financial or trade value, but about the value of the guy in their lineup.  Sure, Murray can get 1000 yards, but if he gets 1300 yards he's much more valuable to your lineup.  AP is a more valuable RB than Murray is even if the owner isn't trading either one.  So a rookie coming in that can cut a guy's touches by 20% or more certainly affects the value Murray represents to his owners' lineups.

 
^^^Not a DWash owner. I don't play dynasty. But I formulate my redraft plans early. Hence why value matters. It actually always matters because even after the season starts, as there are trade considerations. Your stance on that front is full of context and it's completely wrong. 

As is your stance about not being able to assess the talents and skills of incoming rookies.

Lat will get a chance to do great things in this offense this year, given the OL, QB and defense. But from everything I've analyzed as a Raiders homer, I predict Washington will steal a great deal of Lat's PPR value early and that Lat won't keep it up even if he starts hot out of the gate (which I think he will do, actually) because of his running style and historical propensity for injury.

Most of the posters here questioning Lat's value are projecting Washington as a threat to Lat's 3rd down touches, not his role as a starter, at least not to start this season. You're reaching for more strawmen. 

 
I'll go with what I know, you can go with the unknown. You just said it, "he can", no guarantee, so the value loss in Murray are by those who are gullible to the fact that every thing they read is true. So you just admitted that you take what you read on the internet as fact. Because there is nothing that has been proven that says he even makes the roster.

Law, its best you ignore my posts since nothing you say change my mind at this point. Your opinion does not sway my own, so if my unwillingness to listen to your opinion upsets you, sorry. I will take bird in hand over random peoples opinions. If you want to buy a player based of reporter hype, your opinion can not be valuable to me.

I apologize for this long back and forth, not to my liking as these never end well.

 
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slow day at work for me, keep checking the SP for new topics or new content.... Nope, same ole Lat Murray thread thats been at the top for 2 days

 
Being completely unreasonable and irrational about a 5th round rookie taking the world by storm before training camp doesnt either. I even made reference to my snark, calm down and stop acting like you have not been snarky either.
Please quote me stating Washington would take the world by storm.  Please quote anyone doing so for that matter.

 
I'll go with what I know, you can go with the unknown. You just said it, "he can", no guarantee, so the value loss in Murray are by those who are gullible to the fact that every thing they read is true. So you just admitted that you take what you read on the internet as fact. Because there is nothing that has been proven that says he even makes the roster.

Law, its best you ignore my posts since nothing you say change my mind at this point. Your opinion does not sway my own, so if my unwillingness to listen to your opinion upsets you, sorry. I will take bird in hand over random peoples opinions. If you want to buy a player based of reporter hype, your opinion can not be valuable to me.

I apologize for this long back and forth, not to my liking as these never end well.
Dude, we're having a discussion about Latavius Murray's prospects this year. I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with me, nor does it upset me when they don't. Not trying to change your mind, just discussing my views on the matter, which happen to mostly contrast yours. You've made a lot of polarizing comments. You should expect responses, especially after you call posters gullible and not to be taken serious.

 
I'll go with what I know, you can go with the unknown. You just said it, "he can", no guarantee, so the value loss in Murray are by those who are gullible to the fact that every thing they read is true. So you just admitted that you take what you read on the internet as fact. Because there is nothing that has been proven that says he even makes the roster.
You don't win leagues based on "what you know". That's what guppies do when they draft players based on last year's production.

You've got to take a risk or two or else you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunity. Last year's points and touches don't carry over to this year.

Do yourself a favor, watch this video and just consider there's a chance this guy can steal significant carries. His coaches are raving about him, that's typically prerequisite to a breakout.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DP5b5AuDyBI

 
The reason why I have many shares of Washington is because I was not impressed by Murray last year, and I think Washington has a good opportunity to get significant touches this year.

FO's stats have Murray at below replacement level. He didn't pass my eyeball test, either. He did get 1,000 yards rushing and caught some passes, but there was really no one else OAK had in the backfield.

I much prefer the cost of Washington (late 2nd or 3rd round rookie), or at 170 in the only start up I did right after the Draft.

Maybe Murray can be the grinder/GL? Nothing wrong with that. But I don't see him catching 40 passes this year, and that will hurt his value A LOT.

 
http://www.silverandblackpride.com/2016/6/22/12007564/2016-oakland-raiders-depth-chart-roster-breakdown-position-battles-running

Position battle:


Latavius Murray vs DeAndre Washington

Murray may be penciled in as the starter, but Washington is nearly 1a. There will be plenty of carries to go around for these two, but make no mistake, this will also be a competition for who sees the field the most. Murray established himself last season as a workhorse back, but faded down the stretch. Washington will take some of the load off of him, but due to Washington's abilities as a receiver, it's possible it ends up being Murray who is the relief instead.

Murray was inherited by Jack Del Rio while Washington perfectly fits the mold of the type of back Del Rio loves. The compact scat back has been compared to Maurice Jones-Drew who was drafted by the Jaguars under Del Rio and played most of his career for him, making three Pro Bowls and being named All Pro once. This battle could get interesting right away.

 
You don't win leagues based on "what you know". That's what guppies do when they draft players based on last year's production.

You've got to take a risk or two or else you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunity. Last year's points and touches don't carry over to this year.

Do yourself a favor, watch this video and just consider there's a chance this guy can steal significant carries. His coaches are raving about him, that's typically prerequisite to a breakout.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DP5b5AuDyBI
Thanks for the video, good data to have. 

What I saw was good breakaway speed, and the success he has mostly on off-tackle sweep plays to get around the outside tackle and get upfield. Solid stutter, but not an ankle-breaker. Mostly what I saw was some pretty terrible tackling.One thing I really liked was his churning forward -- it's a highlight film to be sure, but from the plays here liked the way that stayed balanced and moving forward on contact -- good thing to have if he's used in 3rd downs.

As a Raider fan, would be thrilled if Washington panned out to be incredible, and it's no skin off my nose if he takes the job from Murray by earning it with what he does with his touches. If they both excel, bully.

That said, I think Murray is a longer way from getting significant carries stolen than many here think, and despite the talk even before camps begin, I can see the Raiders giving Murray the chance to carry the main portion of the load that he's earned from last year.

 
I think it is more likely that Washington eats significantly into the 67 carries and 55 receptions tallied by Reece, Helu, Jones and Olawale and takes away maybe a smattering from Latavius.  It is also possible that the Raiders put a better offense on the field this year and offset that loss with more overall plays.

And the whole offense fell off in the second half of last season averaging 375 yards and 25 points through the first eight games and 305 yards and 18 points in games 8-16.

Carr averaged 270 yards in weeks 1-8 and 215 yards in 8-16 but no one is down on him.  Heck, and people around here know I put a lot of stock in this stat (to their annoyance and chagrin), over the last five games of the season Carr put up 5.9, 4.66, 5.87, 5.37 & 5.88 yards per attempt.  Historically that is a dismal performance level.  He had 5.9 in week four and 5.08 in week one.  He had three other games with sub 7 y/a, which is what you would expect from an average QB.  

But people are in love with Carr and Lat can't buy a break.

ETA: Oh and the Raiders drafted a pretty highly regarded QB in the fourth round too.

 
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Is there anything in that position battle post Fitz that isnt rhetoric or conjecture? Just a guy saying his thoughts and opinions? Is that another piece you got online that you deemed a fact? Want me to post all the stuff you find online from people writing things that are untrue?

 
Is it football season yet? This Murray thread needs a break so we can discuss real football.
Given your stance that only actual production matters and offseason speculation is meaningless or worse, I have to ask:

why are you even ON a fantasy football message board before mid-August?  What do you hope to find in June in these threads?

 
Man Wheels you just keep going. It's the off season, it is literally all speculation unless it's an injury or straight from a coach's mouth. And you can only trust coach speak about a quarter of the time. Dynasty players still make trades in the off season and if you're making those trades based solely on last year's performance, you're going to have a bad time. Maybe you should go get some Mcfadden shares. 1k rusher last year, only has a rookie incumbent to compete with and since real football hasn't been played, I should assume Mcfadden is still starting. I mean, first rounders don't always start right?

I was the one who bumped up this thread to begin with because I'm trying to get an idea of the picture fantasy owners are seeing when they think of Murray and Washinton. I'm a Washington owner and was considering trading for Murray but obviously don't want to overpay for a guy who had a mostly lackluster season.

Nobody in this thread is taking the rumors and conjecture as fact but we have to make predictions and know what other are valuing a player before we can move forward and make educated decisions. Thus we defer to the information put out by those with better connections than us (those who get the information) and those making predictions who may know better than us (those who are paid to talk fantasy). Then we use that information and those impressions to make our own decisions about how we feel about a player.

Most of us have settled on the impression that Murray is not a starter level talent. We might be wrong, you might be right. But at the end of the day, you are doing the same thing as us. You just value different pieces of information differently. That would be totally fine and wouldn't bother anyone if you weren't so flagrant about telling everyone their wrong.

 
Interesting. I have not even spoken to you or quoted you. I'm discussing a player and my opinion doesnt jive with yours. Must I not make comments because you disagree with them. Just like I ignore some opinions, you can ignore mine. But in typical fashion people continue to get upset cause I dont care about their opinion in this regard, especially when it is based off internet rumors. To be completely honest you should be ashamed to value a player so much or devalue him because of internet rhetoric and conjecture. Have people not learned? It happens EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. Curious, If I visit this site, must I have to like your opinion Arodin? Can I only visit this site if I support your opinion? Also, most people settled that based off value Martin wasnt a starter and Randle was last year. Now, people dont like to talk about how the fantasy world got that wrong.

I hate when people say "nobody" said this or that in response to comments in an attempt to mislead. Clearly someone said that Washington will be the starter. Run It Up said those exact words virtually verbatim and Law insinuated it that he would get lion share.

LawFitz:
Washington has a much more well-rounded skillset. He will make this a full blown RBBC by midseason, stealing the lion's share of the receiving stats IMO. Lat buyers beware.

Run It Up:
Pile my biased opinion on top of all these others, but I think Washington will push Murray for his job, not a role.
Helu is a capable third down back, and Washington is a complete back, he brings more to the table than Murray if he can pick up the big game. If not they will use Murray and look for a replacement yet again next year.

If people are saying a 5th round rookie is going to come in and start before training camp over a guy who performed well enough ona bad team, YES they are taking the internet, conjecture and rhetoric as fact. No reasonable person could name that guy a starter without buying the hype like the people I shown have.

 
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Most of us have settled on the impression that Murray is not a starter level talent.
I don't think that is true.  Some of you have, many perhaps but most?  Maybe most who Wheels is disagreeing with, and arguing his point poorly I might add.

Last year Murray was the very definition of starter level, I think the problem is that many (most?) had the expectation that he was going to be elite and that didn't pan out.  What surprises me most is how quickly people turn on a player.  If you are a Washington owner it would be a good idea to go after Murray while he is relatively inexpensive.  Because, while Murray may flounder this year, the pieces are in place for him to have a very good year and keep Washington in the relief role where he will most definitely be starting the season.

I don't want to dig up the thread from last off season but this conversation of the last few days really reminds me of the Lamar Miller/Jay Ajayi thread from last year.

 
I don't think that is true.  Some of you have, many perhaps but most?  Maybe most who Wheels is disagreeing with, and arguing his point poorly I might add.

Last year Murray was the very definition of starter level, I think the problem is that many (most?) had the expectation that he was going to be elite and that didn't pan out.  What surprises me most is how quickly people turn on a player.  If you are a Washington owner it would be a good idea to go after Murray while he is relatively inexpensive.  Because, while Murray may flounder this year, the pieces are in place for him to have a very good year and keep Washington in the relief role where he will most definitely be starting the season.

I don't want to dig up the thread from last off season but this conversation of the last few days really reminds me of the Lamar Miller/Jay Ajayi thread from last year.
Fair enough. I should not have said most. Many who are piping in feel that way but the community as a whole seems to rank him as if he will keep his job, something I would agree with barring an injury because that line will make him look good. I think he loses work in the passing game but if Mcfadden can keep his job behind a baller O-line, Murray should be able to as well.

I'll stop trying to feed the troll.

 
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WheelsUp said:
Law insinuated it that he would get lion share.

LawFitz:
Washington has a much more well-rounded skillset. He will make this a full blown RBBC by midseason, stealing the lion's share of the receiving stats IMO. Lat buyers beware.
You have a reading comprehension issue, dude.

 
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Being completely unreasonable and irrational about a 5th round rookie taking the world by storm before training camp doesnt either. I even made reference to my snark, calm down and stop acting like you have not been snarky either.
Well, sure - but I've only really read that in your rants. Most people have only said Washington is a threat. Zach Stacy had a nice rookie season and was subsequently replaced by Tre Mason who was....

having a decent season doesn't guaranty you anything the next year. Is it likely that Murray gets to toil away for another season? Yeah, probably but to borrow from your hyperbole lets not act like he's Adrian Peterson and is locked in for 1,600 yards.

 
I have a big swing in opinion between Latavius in redraft, and Latavius in dynasty.  

I feel pretty good about his 2016, but wouldn't offer much in dynasty.  Even if Washington carves out a role, Latavius should get plenty of work.  

Latavius has 41 catches last year.  That goes down, I think.  Cooper and Walford both increase their totals, maybe Crabs goes down a little bit.  Roberts probably goes up, Rivera down.  Offense should improve, overall, but I there are young lions at WR and TE that will demand more targets.  

If Helu doesn't make the team, that's a really good sign for Washington, I think.  But he still has Reece to overcome, who gets his targets.  

Latavius should be the lead back, 15-20 touches a game, and goalline back.  Solid RB2 I think.  

 
People disagree with you, get upset, call them troll. Standard.
I am not trolling, infact I rarely post, and when I do I get more likes than you in fewer posts Gabes.

I do not like how people are turning on Murray, so I will share my opinion on it like many here. I am not making a poor arguments, they are just simple. I'm not discounting Murray because of rhetoric, hyperbole, conjecture or internet story lines. I have learned my lesson from years past, if that isnt a good argument, you guys clearly have not learned from years past. I'm just not agreeing with the ridiculousness that Washington will unseat Murray before training camp and even insinuating as much, like many have suggested. Could he? Sure. But I'm not going to just assume it when he could suck it up in camp. When you say he will get more touches or more by midseason, that means you are saying he will unseat him. This is ridiculous how people act when they are disagreed with. The whining, crying and name calling as well as links is unbecoming.

 
Massraider: You seem to have a handle on the Raiders from your remarks, do you believe Washington will take more of Murrays work or that of other players like Reece and Helu? When you say offer much in dynasty, he could be on the Eagles next year for all we know.

Octopus: I'm not even a Murray fan, I'm more about the logic that a guy will push for all this work and set Murray aside when Murray is a pretty decent runner.

 
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I'm more about the logic that a guy will push for all this work and set Murray aside when Murray is a pretty decent runner.


I'm just not agreeing with the ridiculousness that Washington will unseat Murray before training camp and even insinuating as much, like many have suggested...When you say he will get more touches or more by midseason, that means you are saying he will unseat him.
 
I really don't see where anyone has said any of these things.  When I read what you are writing I feel that you are grossly misrepresenting other people's statements.

 
I think I have no idea what Washington can do.  It's possible he's just a kickoff returner.  

I'm also ready and willing to believe that he's a very good runner, and this 5'8'' lightning bug can hide behind our monster line, and do better than Latavius.  That's all just hope.  I never heard of this kid till we drafted him.  

In the abstract, in a vacuum, I acknowledge that it's difficult for a 5th round RB to take the job outright of a young starter in his prime.  The Raiders have playoff aspirations.  Handing the keys to the youngster seems a lot less feasible than letting Latavius do what he did last year.  

As I said before, no one LOVES Latavius, but at this point, he's probably underrated.  

It bears mention that the Raiders offense as a whole hit some rough patches the 2nd half of the year.  Injuries to Cooper really hurt the passing game, they lost their RT before the season, the center missed games, and Ja'Marcus Webb started all year long.  The defense really played better than the offense as the year wore on, which is really shocking.  

But the narrative from the fantasy world regarding Latavius has been set for a while, so you never heard about that.  

 
Scott Barrett @DudeFantasyBro

Since 2001, of the 92 cases of a RB amassing 260 carries and 35 receptions in a season, Latavius Murray's 2015 ranks dead last in FP scored.
 
Scott Barrett @DudeFantasyBro

Since 2001, of the 92 cases of a RB amassing 260 carries and 35 receptions in a season, Latavius Murray's 2015 ranks dead last in FP scored.
I was just going to post this stat. Pretty crazy. Even if the line wasn't that good last year, you can't blame it all on them. The Raiders had a pretty decent pass game to help the RBs out and the result was disappointing.

 
Lat ran for 630 yards on 133 carries in weeks 1-8 (4.7) & 436 on 134 carries in weeks 9-17 (3.3).  But I say "meh" to that.  The whole team had a huge offensive drop-off in the second half of the season.  If you believe the Raiders will be better on offense this season then you should expect Latavius to also improve.

 
He may improve, but he also may not get the workload he did last season.
He may not.  Then again, he may.  Then again his workload may increase.  Then again the Raiders may be better on both sides of the ball and run a lot more plays keeping his workload stable.  He may see a reduced workload and an increase in his efficiency.  He may see a reduced workload and score more TDs.

Lots of things can happen.  All we know for sure is that today he is the presumptive starting RB on a team that pretty much everyone thinks is going to improve.

 
In 0.5 ppr he finished 11th.

5 of 16 weeks he scored more than 15 pts, including two weeks with over 20. The rest of the time he was a middling RB2/3. 

The main reason he finished so high in the final rankings is because of the historically high amount of injuries to RBs last year. 

 
Because you rather have a guy coming off an Achilles as a shark move? Even if he signs with a team, he will come in and make the current RB irrelevant? My point is people are being irrational when it comes to Murray, the above post proves that.

Also, does everyone realize not everyone is a RB1, sometimes you have to have a RB2.

 
Wait you're asking if I'd rather have a guy who has had 4 seasons over 1k rushing, 3 seasons of double digit TDs, and a history of being an elite RB1 behind that offensive line? Unequivocally yes. But of course, it was ####### joke. An attempt to lighten the content of the thread. I guess that was a tactical error on my part

On your other point, RB2's are all well and nice but RB2's shouldn't sit behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. Some of us don't believe in his talent based on past performance and watching his play. That's why we want Washington to get a crack at it and believe he has a good chance to succeed.

 

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