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RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 10 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hey everyone, I know last week we didn't have a QB thread, likely to not happen again this week...if you ever go in the FFA most of you know I have moved to Miami and am starting a new job with pretty crazy hours...never a set timetable every week, so the threads are going to be spaced out a bit more. Sorry for the delays but sometimes "reality" has to take over at a point.

Let's jump into Week 10

St Louis at New Orleans

Steven Jackson: On Thursday he practiced fully so all signs look for him to start this weekend. New Orleans however is back to respectability and has everything to play for on Sunday. They are yielding less than 100 yards a game on the ground, and the Rams simply don’t have much an OL to inflict any damage on defenses. I don’t expect Jackson to have anything close to Superstar numbers for probably the remainder of the season. I was never high on him preseason, I was worried about his running style and potential injuries…even when he was setting the world on fire last season.

Reggie Bush: You can’t look at the fact that NO really isn’t a great running team, because he gets so many chances with catches OOTB…in PPR leagues you would be a fool to sit him even if he had a tough match up which he doesn’t. Should have a productive day…slight injury concern but they Saints are saying he will start.

Buffalo at Miami

Marshawn Lynch: Zach Thomas is still ailing, and the Phins allow a lot of yds and TD on the ground week in and week out. Lynch is a rookie so nothing is ever a sure thing but he has a great match up this week…Top10 potential.

Jesse Chatman: The Bills do give up 115 a game on the ground. Chatman ran fairly effective against the Ginats…2 weeks to prepare for this game and get ready for a bigger load, I would consider starting Chatman if you have him this week.

Denver at Kansas City

Travis Henry: The Chiefs are not that bad against the run but it seems traditionally the Broncos are able to put up good numbers in these AFC West showdowns. Henry has been pretty average to below average, he doesn’t get in the end zone with any regularity and his last 3 outings he has 65, 51, and 31 yds rushing…that’s terrible. Might be time to consider benching this guy…maybe he snaps out of it this week.

Larry Johnson: Makes owners sick to their stomachs..just when he was getting things turned around. I am sure there were a lot of teams in that .500 rnage that could see the light at the end of the tunnel with LJ and his production the past 2-3 weeks. They are saying that LJ might not be gone as long as first anticipated…the Chiefs winning and staying in the hunt could only make things better, so root for KC this weekend all you LJ owners.

Priest Holmes: I would not start him…he has like 5 carries over the last 2 seasons, no way he totes the rock 25 times this weekend. I don’t even think he will get 15 carries, really. Let owners trip all over themselves to grab him, you don’t really want this 34 year old RB on your team IMO.

Kolby Smith: I understand he had a bad preseason and he was sort of a hybrid FB in college some of the way…he still has fresh legs, is young, and I think this is the guy that owners need to consider putting on their team. I am not expecting huge things form him this weekend because the OL is pretty iffy, however Denver allowsa lot of yds and FF points to opposing RB so he could potentially put up decent numbers…be ahead of next week’s WW and if you have a free spot, you might add him. I think LJ will be back in about 3 weeks.

Minnesota at Green Bay

Adrian Peterson: What a game last week, about 300 yards and 3 TD, just insane and he probably could have had more. The Chargers were not terrible against the run going into that game either. He’s the #1 RB in FF right now, he should do OK this weekend but I would temper too much expectation…this is the NFL and Green Bay is going to be jacked up to try and stop him. Their DBs can handle the Vikes passing game in 1 on 1 match ups all day so look for 8 and 9 in the box all game. Might not matter but the Pack are having a pretty good season.

Ryan Grant: I advised against him last week…he did an admirable job for the Pack…19/55 but he also had 4 catches for 37 yds and that helped make a pretty crummy day into at least an average day in PPR leagues. The Vikes are awesome at stopping the run, they were able to slow down LT last week, add in the fact the Packers are not a good running team and I think you can guess that Grant will not be getting my stamp of approval for the 2nd week in a row…bench him!!!

Atlanta at Carolina

Warrick Dunn: Has a decent run schedule down the stretch and at this point I don’t think we are going to see Jerious Norwood ever take over this season as the starter. And Dunn had a great game last week. Norwood might be gimpy this week as well so Dunn will see plenty of action.

DeShaun Foster: Still the starter, the Falcons are not very good aginast the run allowing 116 yds a game plus a TD to boot…Foster has the match up and should be in most starting line ups this weekend. Which means he will likely lay an egg on Sunday…let’s hope not though.

DeAngelo Williams: Can’t trust him to get enough touches…keep him on your bench.

Philly at Washington

Brian Westbrook: Must start just about every week

Clinton Portis: Both teams are pretty decent at stopping the run but Portis is coming off his biggest rushing total in quite awhile…196 this past weekend…the first time he has rushed for over 100 yards since…are you ready for this? Week 4 of the 2006 season…his only 100 yard game last year. Last time he rushed for back to back 100 yard games was in 2005…I am betting he doesn’t crack 100 yards rushing this weekend.

Jacksonville at Tennessee…this ought to be a bloodbath, if you like hitting on defense, watch this game.

MJD: Just doesn’t get enough touches and Tennessee is really tough against the run, not a good match up no matter how you slice it.

Fred Taylor: No way.

LenDale White: Another 25+ touches on the ground last week…4 weeks in a row IIRC. I’d play him although I don’t think he will have loads of success this week…sort of a fringe top20 play IMO. They keep feeding him the ball though so ride him as long as you can.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Jamal Lewis: I said there were going to be some big games for this guy…4 TD last week despite a pretty average day rushing the ball. Lewis will have his work cut out against Pittsburgh and I think the Browns are smart enough to probably turn Derek Anderson loose and abandon the running game if need be. A lot of people are predicting a Steeler Blowout this weekend…I don’t see it quite that way.

FWP: Great match up but we have said that so many times this season with Parker that you really don’t know how he might respond. On paper it looks like a good match up for him.

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Rudi Johnson/Kenny Watson: Neither of them is a good play against Baltimore this week. The Ravens only allow 2.8 ypc, and Cinci only musters about 3.7 ypc rushing…not a good mix here folks. Especially with the DBs for Baltimore being out, you would think Palmer would just sit back and chuck it to whomever he feels like throwing it to. I would bench both of them.

Willis McGahee: Juicy match up for him, no reason to bench him unless something were to pop up on the injury report over the weekend.

Dallas at NY Giants

Marion Barber III: Should be plenty of fireworks in this game. Odds are good that MB III will get in on that action this Sunday.

Julius Jones: Most of the season he was pretty quiet, don’t let 1 game suddenly make you want to thrust this guy out in your starting line up. Let’s see him do something positive 2 games in a row.

Brandon Jacobs: Should get a lot of touches but Dallas is pretty good against the run. They held Adrian Peterson to 70 yds a few weeks back. I don’t see the top10 numbers that so many sites are posting him in this week. The Cowboys give up 84 a game and 3.6 ypc…nothing to get overly excited about.

Detroit at Arizona

Kevin Jones: Just keep the foot on the pedal with him right now. On one hand it was disappointing that he only had 70 yards and the team scored 44 points last week…but on the other hand if the game were close he likely would have had more carries. 70/TD, 100/TD, 70 last week, he is going to be RB you almost must start the rest of the way. Doesn’t hurt that the Lions are actually gunning for the playoffs right now.

Edge: The Lions are pretty good against the run…3.8 ypc. I think Edge doesn’t really have a lot of upside this week but at the same time I would expect him to crack the top 20.

Chicago at Oakland

Cedric Benson/Adrian Peterson: Another great match up and another Sunday we watch Cedric Benson slowly flush his career down the drain. The guy should tear the Raiders up this weekend…but he likely won’t. I would tell you to be on the hunt for Peterson but I am not sure they will bench Benson, likely let him run his course for the season, bears year is pretty much over at this point anyways.

Justin Fargas: I know he had a nice game last week, but I am not high on Fargas. He might be OK for this game but I don’t expect him to really light it up the 2nd half of the season. He is an average RB in my eyes and I am surprised he has surpassed LaMont Jordan who played very well early in the season before his injury.

Indy at San Diego…I wonder if we should play either of these RBs…

Joseph Addai: Yep

LaDainian Tomlinson: Uh huh

San Fran at Seattle

Frank Gore: Might not play but the SF rush attack has been pretty meh for most o f the season. I wouldn’t get excited about wheeling anyone out there right now. Gore has been a major disappointment this season.

Shaun Alexander: I look for Seattle to start throwing the ball a lot more, especially when DJ Hackett and Deion Branch coming back to shore up their WR that already were doing OK with Engram and Burleson out there. Maybe if their passing game started to dominate, more holes might open for Shaun. On a sidenote, I always was sort of 50/50on whether Walter Jones was really that great of a run blocking Left Tackle…and then Hutch left and when he went to MN, suddenly the underachieving Bryant mcKinnie became a Pro Bowler at LT…Jones used to be talked about as a potential HoF candidate…I hope not because hutch made him look really good.

One more RB I want to mention is Ron Dayne. This week, Ahman Green was quoted as saying…"I hurt my knee against Kansas City, and it hasn't been right since," said Green, who left midway through the second quarter. "I feel like I've been playing with a flat tire all season. A car doesn't run right with a flat tire. Eventually, I'll get it fixed, but I don't think it'll be until after the season."

People are looking for potential RB on the WW…I would look at Dayne who had a nice game last week but also finished strong last year…look at his final 3-4 games for Houston last season. 21/87/2 TD, 18/94/TD, 32/153/2TD…just to jog your memory and then last week he had 21/122/TD…you would have a hard time finding that kind of production on guys like Clinton Portis in the last 2 seasons. I would find room for him as I think Green is just a waste of time at this point…he can’t finish games.

Good luck this weekend.

 
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:goodposting: Thanks. Good luck in Miami. To bad they don't have a pro football team there. :mellow:
Boy did I get screwed last weekend. Made what I thought was an awesome trade, LT and Steve Smith for LJ and Randy Moss.Of course LJ gets hurt towards the end of the game, and I'm screwed at RB. I needed another running back though, so I traded Randy Moss and Selvin Young for FWP and Chatman. I think I pulled a muscle from reaching so far. But I really like FWP and REALLY REALLY like Chatman. Hopefully they will carry me down the stretch! :unsure: I'm NEVER trading my players away EVER EVER again! :lol:
 
On a sidenote, I always was sort of 50/50on whether Walter Jones was really that great of a run blocking Left Tackle…and then Hutch left and when he went to MN, suddenly the underachieving Bryant mcKinnie became a Pro Bowler at LT…Jones used to be talked about as a potential HoF candidate…I hope not because hutch made him look really good.
for a sidenote, that's an interesting point, MoP. i know everyone thinks hutch is a great player, but the seahawks have tried to fill in with drafted OL. i wouldn't have thought they would drop off so much from hutch-tobeck to sims-spencer. i was looking at FO's OL stats, and they have seattle pretty average at running to the left and bottom of the league to the right.direction: adjusted line yards rankrunning to LE: 3.9 20th/32running to LT: 4.6 14th/32running to CG: 3.8 26th/32running to RT: 3.3 29th/32running to RE: 2.1 32nd/32minnesota, fwiw, actually ranks worse than seattle running to LT, but better to LE, and 2nd in the league in running to middle (CG).
 
On a sidenote, I always was sort of 50/50 on whether Walter Jones was really that great of a run blocking Left Tackle…and then Hutch left and when he went to MN, suddenly the underachieving Bryant mcKinnie became a Pro Bowler at LT…Jones used to be talked about as a potential HoF candidate…I hope not because hutch made him look really good.
It wasn't just that Hutch left - the whole line fell apart last year becasue of injuries and age. I agree that Hutch was a big loss but you can't look at the SEA line play and ONLY consider the Hutchinson loss when evaluating the 2005 Seahawks and the 2006 Seahawks. Oh - and Jones played 4 or 5 seasons before Hutch came along. He was generally regarded as one of the best at that time.BTW - Jones is not a potential HoF candidate - he's a first ballot HoF candidate...

Good work as always...

 
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On a sidenote, I always was sort of 50/50on whether Walter Jones was really that great of a run blocking Left Tackle…and then Hutch left and when he went to MN, suddenly the underachieving Bryant mcKinnie became a Pro Bowler at LT…Jones used to be talked about as a potential HoF candidate…I hope not because hutch made him look really good.
for a sidenote, that's an interesting point, MoP. i know everyone thinks hutch is a great player, but the seahawks have tried to fill in with drafted OL. i wouldn't have thought they would drop off so much from hutch-tobeck to sims-spencer. i was looking at FO's OL stats, and they have seattle pretty average at running to the left and bottom of the league to the right.direction: adjusted line yards rankrunning to LE: 3.9 20th/32running to LT: 4.6 14th/32running to CG: 3.8 26th/32running to RT: 3.3 29th/32running to RE: 2.1 32nd/32minnesota, fwiw, actually ranks worse than seattle running to LT, but better to LE, and 2nd in the league in running to middle (CG).
Well the Vikings are averaging 5.8 ypc...that's just plain sick.
 
On a sidenote, I always was sort of 50/50 on whether Walter Jones was really that great of a run blocking Left Tackle…and then Hutch left and when he went to MN, suddenly the underachieving Bryant mcKinnie became a Pro Bowler at LT…Jones used to be talked about as a potential HoF candidate…I hope not because hutch made him look really good.
It wasn't just that Hutch left - the whole line fell apart last year becasue of injuries and age. I agree that Hutch was a big loss but you can't look at the SEA line play and ONLY consider the Hutchinson loss when evaluating the 2005 Seahawks and the 2006 Seahawks. Oh - and Jones played 4 or 5 seasons before Hutch came along. He was generally regarded as one of the best at that time.BTW - Jones is not a potential HoF candidate - he's a first ballot HoF candidate...

Good work as always...
Walter Jones didn't make it to the Pro Bowl until Hutch's rookie year...look it up. Jones was a Pro Bowler in 2001-2006...and I think it was a stretch last season, he certainly shouldn't this year. A lot of HoF Tackles go to maybe 9-10 Pro Bowls...Jones is running out of time and I think with Hutch proving that how valuable he is now in MN...i just don't think Walter Jones is a shoe in...plus he plays for Seattle, not exactly a mecca for HoF inductees either.
 
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nice job.I like the insight on Dayne.
Dayne is a guy that I see in a lot of redrafts sitting on the WW
Dayne is out there in one of my league's WW as well. I have had my eye on him for the past two weeks and wondering why no one in my league has moved on him. This particular league does not allow for much roster room and I believe the uncertaintly of his role vs. Green is what is keeping him from being picked up. In my case, I have to either let go of someone like DeAngelo Williams or Jason Campbell to make room for Dayne. However, if Dayne projects to finish as strong as he did last season, then I would work at making this adjustment. While I mirror some of your sentiments regarding Ahman Green, I just am not as confident in Dayne's role for the remainder of the season. Sure, if Green is injured, it becomes a no-brainer situation. His injury history of late does warrant a good look at Ron Dayne though.I second your insight on Dayne. :goodposting:
 
Philly at Washington

Clinton Portis: Both teams are pretty decent at stopping the run but Portis is coming off his biggest rushing total in quite awhile…196 this past weekend…the first time he has rushed for over 100 yards since…are you ready for this? Week 4 of the 2006 season…his only 100 yard game last year. Last time he rushed for back to back 100 yard games was in 2005…I am betting he doesn’t crack 100 yards rushing this weekend.
How does what he did last week have anything to do with this week?
 
MOP, perhaps this is wishful thinking :goodposting: However, I'm going against the grain of what is supposed to happen to S JAX. Everything points to disaster - Poor O-Line, behind in games (even though he does catch passes), injury, team going nowhere........

Even with all of this. I'm thinking S JAX kicks it in and awards his fantasy owners from here on out averaging 1 TD and 125 yards of total production each game.

Steven, keep on being the monster running and scoring machine I know you to be!

 
Philly at Washington

Clinton Portis: Both teams are pretty decent at stopping the run but Portis is coming off his biggest rushing total in quite awhile…196 this past weekend…the first time he has rushed for over 100 yards since…are you ready for this? Week 4 of the 2006 season…his only 100 yard game last year. Last time he rushed for back to back 100 yard games was in 2005…I am betting he doesn’t crack 100 yards rushing this weekend.
How does what he did last week have anything to do with this week?
I'm pointing out a trend Joffer, for those of us that believe in Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, and random numbers...it's kinda fun.
 

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