RB Match ups to exploit/avoid week 2 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I know with just one week under our belts, analysis is difficult, but I was hoping to see more on the Dallas situation than "see Clinton Portis". Not carping, but that game is pivotal in my RB choices this week. Any further thoughts? I don't think that MB3 has yet turned out to be any kind of threat to JJ and the dreaded RBBC failed to appear for DAL against JAX, but who has some futher insight into Washington's run or overall defense?

Sagan, fair enough.Washington allowed something like 88 yds on 31 carries to Taylor...TDs are very hard to gauge.JJ started off hot and had a nice 22 yard TD gash thru jax early in the game. He finishes with somewhere around 70 something yds rushing and Dallas was in the game most of the way if not ahead...what does that tell you about the OL? Do you think that gets easier this week with Adam Archulets and Sean Taylor at Safety for the Skins?I'd like to hear what you have to say about this situation too, thanks.

 

[The Jacket]

There are two things I look at with Larry Johnson this week: (1) whether the likely increased workload will help him or hurt him; and (2) how good is Denver's defense.

(1.) Johnson needs more than 17 carries; that's a fact. So I think that getting back to grassroots football will help him in that respect. But I'm just not a believer in Damon Huard and I think the Broncos are really, really going to key on him. I'm talking 8 in the box on every play where there's only 2 receivers, and even then I suspect the "deep" safety will be nosing around in case Johnson breaks the first line of defense.

My hope, as a Chiefs fan, is that Solari tests the Broncos defense a little: go 3- or 4-wide and have Gonzalez at tight end, and then run Johnson up the gut behind what is still arguably the best guard-center-guard combination in football.

(2.) I think the Broncos defense is pretty darn good. Johnson had some success against it last year, but that was at home, and that was with Willie Roaf at tackle and Trent Green at quarterback. At this point, you almost have to write off what Johnson did last year because the circumstances are so different this season.

All-in-all, it depends who you've got at the position. I wouldn't sit him for a very borderline guy like Marion Barber or Cedric Benson, for example. But if you've got the luxury of bringing a guy like, say, Warrick Dunn off the bench to replace him, i'd seriously think about it.

You'd think that Johnson is good for around 25-30 carries, and he's not going to average much less than 3.5 yards per carry, if at all. While extremely tentative, that's 88-105 yards. I also think he's good for some yards in the receiving game because Huard is not going to have the time to find receivers down field. The question, as always, will be with the touchdowns. Can the Chiefs move the ball inside the 20's? Will Denver's defensive focus on Johnson allow him to take the glory?

 

[HoTnickZ]

I see this as a great feature, which could go horribly wrong if people begin to misconstrue it as a WDIS extravaganza (and I try to say this without coming off as the forum police)... I think thoughts, differing opinions, analysis etc could add to the value of the thread, but there's a fine line when it comes to player A vs player B, IMO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1 thing I'd like to add. There are some posts about how many I am getting right/wrong, folks it's not a prediction thread like the Oddsmaker. It's an anlysis thread based on personal views and some raw stats early in the season. I hope you do what FBG encourages you to do as well...and think for yourself. Just because 4 websites say that Chester Taylor is going to run for 100 yds and a TD...doesn't make it true. You look at all the info you can gather then you use that ole noggin on top and make an educated guess for the weekend.

The more banter, analysis, and info you can read up on the better. This isn't a science and it never will be.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There are two things I look at with Larry Johnson this week: (1) whether the likely increased workload will help him or hurt him; and (2) how good is Denver's defense.

(1.) Johnson needs more than 17 carries; that's a fact. So I think that getting back to grassroots football will help him in that respect. But I'm just not a believer in Damon Huard and I think the Broncos are really, really going to key on him. I'm talking 8 in the box on every play where there's only 2 receivers, and even then I suspect the "deep" safety will be nosing around in case Johnson breaks the first line of defense.

My hope, as a Chiefs fan, is that Solari tests the Broncos defense a little: go 3- or 4-wide and have Gonzalez at tight end, and then run Johnson up the gut behind what is still arguably the best guard-center-guard combination in football.

(2.) I think the Broncos defense is pretty darn good. Johnson had some success against it last year, but that was at home, and that was with Willie Roaf at tackle and Trent Green at quarterback. At this point, you almost have to write off what Johnson did last year because the circumstances are so different this season.

All-in-all, it depends who you've got at the position. I wouldn't sit him for a very borderline guy like Marion Barber or Cedric Benson, for example. But if you've got the luxury of bringing a guy like, say, Warrick Dunn off the bench to replace him, i'd seriously think about it.

You'd think that Johnson is good for around 25-30 carries, and he's not going to average much less than 3.5 yards per carry, if at all. While extremely tentative, that's 88-105 yards. I also think he's good for some yards in the receiving game because Huard is not going to have the time to find receivers down field. The question, as always, will be with the touchdowns. Can the Chiefs move the ball inside the 20's? Will Denver's defensive focus on Johnson allow him to take the glory?

Excellent. But i won't be sitting LJ for Dunn any time soon...no way. But that's a nice post.

 

[bumpman]

Only debate I would take on is McCallister. Bush is not eh goalline guy in NO... its McCalister. I am not saying downgrade or upgrade either, I am just stating that McCalister is a solid RB2 unless Bush gets the calls on the goalline.

Bush got one out of the three GL carries in the last game.

 

[Sagan]

I know with just one week under our belts, analysis is difficult, but I was hoping to see more on the Dallas situation than "see Clinton Portis". Not carping, but that game is pivotal in my RB choices this week. Any further thoughts? I don't think that MB3 has yet turned out to be any kind of threat to JJ and the dreaded RBBC failed to appear for DAL against JAX, but who has some futher insight into Washington's run or overall defense?

Sagan, fair enough.Washington allowed something like 88 yds on 31 carries to Taylor...TDs are very hard to gauge.JJ started off hot and had a nice 22 yard TD gash thru jax early in the game. He finishes with somewhere around 70 something yds rushing and Dallas was in the game most of the way if not ahead...what does that tell you about the OL? Do you think that gets easier this week with Adam Archulets and Sean Taylor at Safety for the Skins?I'd like to hear what you have to say about this situation too, thanks.

By the way, I agree with you that this exercise is a good one for just swapping perspectives and shouldn't be any kind of prediction thread. In the words of Gene Wilder's Willy Wonka: "No, no... of course I won't hold you responsible.".. Anyway, to me, as I said, the big story here was that there was no JJ/MB3 RBBC. The Cowboys' use of JJ seems to be fairly well established by last week's game. I think it will stay that way precisely because of the big run JJ had for the TD as well has being generally fairly effective vs. a really really good JAX front 7.I hear what you're saying about the WAS safeties, but I have to think that these guys are going to have their hands full with TO, Glenn and Witten, at least if Parcells gameplans things properly AND if Bledsoe gets time to throw. I guess that's a pretty standard assessment, but that's what I got.

 

[(HULK)]

Let me add my thoughts on 4 RBs. All 4 are on my main league team, and I figure I've spent more time thinking about these 4 RBs than the others, so I'll limit my comments to just these 4 RBs.

Willis McGahee - I drafted this guy as my RB1. He is on the bench this week. I think he's in for an average day. Something between 70 and 90 yards rushing. Its 50/50 he gets 1 td, and he's got an outside chance for two. Ultimately, I think Buffalo will move the ball through the air this game. Evans shredded Miami's secondary last year, and Miami's secondary is dinged up right now. So, unless they get up a lot of points (which I don't consider likely), I'm just seeing an average, solid weekend from McGahee.

Reggie Bush - I drafted this guy as my RB2. He is starting this week. It is only a matter of time before this guy breaks a dump off screen or a cutback run for a long touchdown. Given GB's crummy D, I think this is the week it happens. I see Bush having a great combo yardage week, roughly 150 yards combined. And I think that there is an 80% chance he sees the endzone once, and 20% chance he sees it twice.

Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.

Frank Gore - I drafted this guy as my RB4. He is starting this week. Whats not to love about this guy? I was insanely lucky he fell far enough to be my RB4. He has talent, and now he's got opportunity. I don't think the Rams D is any more formidible than the Cards. Actually, the Cards and Rams are very similar teams, with very stong offenses and middle of the pack defenses. I see a similar week for Frank. He'll lower his head and pick up the rushing yards early in the game, and if they fall behind, he'll be the recepient of the Norv Turner dump off pass we all know and love. I see another 150 combo yards for Gore this weekend, and he is an 80% bet to score 1 TD, and I'd say 20% chance to score a second.

So, this week its Gore and Bush starting, McGahee and Taylor benched.

Last week I started Gore and McGahee. I didn't have the balls to start Bush until I'd seen some more of him. I was very enthused by what I saw.

Feel free to comment.

 

[Ears]

There are two things I look at with Larry Johnson this week: (1) whether the likely increased workload will help him or hurt him; and (2) how good is Denver's defense.(2.) I think the Broncos defense is pretty darn good. Johnson had some success against it last year, but that was at home, and that was with Willie Roaf at tackle and Trent Green at quarterback. At this point, you almost have to write off what Johnson did last year because the circumstances are so different this season.

Re: (2) - Was at STL-DEN game last week and Broncos did an excellent job against SJax. The 121 yards are deceiving - he had 2 long runs as the Rams were running out the clock. 13 of his 22 carries were 3 yards or less. The STL passing game was misfiring - as I'd expect KC's to this week. Denver will be able to commit to the run until the Chiefs prove they can move through the air. Its a tough matchup for LJ.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me add my thoughts on 4 RBs. All 4 are on my main league team, and I figure I've spent more time thinking about these 4 RBs than the others, so I'll limit my comments to just these 4 RBs.Willis McGahee - I drafted this guy as my RB1. He is on the bench this week. I think he's in for an average day. Something between 70 and 90 yards rushing. Its 50/50 he gets 1 td, and he's got an outside chance for two. Ultimately, I think Buffalo will move the ball through the air this game. Evans shredded Miami's secondary last year, and Miami's secondary is dinged up right now. So, unless they get up a lot of points (which I don't consider likely), I'm just seeing an average, solid weekend from McGahee.Reggie Bush - I drafted this guy as my RB2. He is starting this week. It is only a matter of time before this guy breaks a dump off screen or a cutback run for a long touchdown. Given GB's crummy D, I think this is the week it happens. I see Bush having a great combo yardage week, roughly 150 yards combined. And I think that there is an 80% chance he sees the endzone once, and 20% chance he sees it twice.Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.Frank Gore - I drafted this guy as my RB4. He is starting this week. Whats not to love about this guy? I was insanely lucky he fell far enough to be my RB4. He has talent, and now he's got opportunity. I don't think the Rams D is any more formidible than the Cards. Actually, the Cards and Rams are very similar teams, with very stong offenses and middle of the pack defenses. I see a similar week for Frank. He'll lower his head and pick up the rushing yards early in the game, and if they fall behind, he'll be the recepient of the Norv Turner dump off pass we all know and love. I see another 150 combo yards for Gore this weekend, and he is an 80% bet to score 1 TD, and I'd say 20% chance to score a second.So, this week its Gore and Bush starting, McGahee and Taylor benched.Last week I started Gore and McGahee. I didn't have the balls to start Bush until I'd seen some more of him. I was very enthused by what I saw.Feel free to comment.

Uuughhhh. I couldn't sit McGahee but you make a compelling arguement. I think NO will be a letdown this week. They are on the road again this week to start the season...GB is a wounded dog right now and i hate that...they still get NFL gamechecks to show up every week...I think people will be shocked what happens in GB this weekend. I don't like the Saints this week...and they will be thinking about getting home to their Superdoeme to play a meaningful game in almost 2 years.Gore looks like a nice play this week again. You had a nice draft.

 

[Rounders]

Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.

So with D.Morgan out this week, does that change your thoughts about Talyor?http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2586244

I have Taylor this week as well and I'm trying to decide between him and Dillon. Right now I'm leaning towards Taylor only because I'm afraid of Maroney stealing touches from Dillon.

 

[(HULK)]

Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.

So with D.Morgan out this week, does that change your thoughts about Talyor?http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2586244

I have Taylor this week as well and I'm trying to decide between him and Dillon. Right now I'm leaning towards Taylor only because I'm afraid of Maroney stealing touches from Dillon.

I actually have that same decision in my work league (my less important league).I'm going with Taylor right now. If Morgan's out, I think that will give him a little more room to run at the second level... maybe he'll break one.

As much as I like Dillon's matchup this week, we know Chester is going to touch the ball a lot more than Dillon will.

 

[(HULK)]

Let me add my thoughts on 4 RBs. All 4 are on my main league team, and I figure I've spent more time thinking about these 4 RBs than the others, so I'll limit my comments to just these 4 RBs.Willis McGahee - I drafted this guy as my RB1. He is on the bench this week. I think he's in for an average day. Something between 70 and 90 yards rushing. Its 50/50 he gets 1 td, and he's got an outside chance for two. Ultimately, I think Buffalo will move the ball through the air this game. Evans shredded Miami's secondary last year, and Miami's secondary is dinged up right now. So, unless they get up a lot of points (which I don't consider likely), I'm just seeing an average, solid weekend from McGahee.Reggie Bush - I drafted this guy as my RB2. He is starting this week. It is only a matter of time before this guy breaks a dump off screen or a cutback run for a long touchdown. Given GB's crummy D, I think this is the week it happens. I see Bush having a great combo yardage week, roughly 150 yards combined. And I think that there is an 80% chance he sees the endzone once, and 20% chance he sees it twice.Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.Frank Gore - I drafted this guy as my RB4. He is starting this week. Whats not to love about this guy? I was insanely lucky he fell far enough to be my RB4. He has talent, and now he's got opportunity. I don't think the Rams D is any more formidible than the Cards. Actually, the Cards and Rams are very similar teams, with very stong offenses and middle of the pack defenses. I see a similar week for Frank. He'll lower his head and pick up the rushing yards early in the game, and if they fall behind, he'll be the recepient of the Norv Turner dump off pass we all know and love. I see another 150 combo yards for Gore this weekend, and he is an 80% bet to score 1 TD, and I'd say 20% chance to score a second.So, this week its Gore and Bush starting, McGahee and Taylor benched.Last week I started Gore and McGahee. I didn't have the balls to start Bush until I'd seen some more of him. I was very enthused by what I saw.Feel free to comment.

Uuughhhh. I couldn't sit McGahee but you make a compelling arguement. I think NO will be a letdown this week. They are on the road again this week to start the season...GB is a wounded dog right now and i hate that...they still get NFL gamechecks to show up every week...I think people will be shocked what happens in GB this weekend. I don't like the Saints this week...and they will be thinking about getting home to their Superdoeme to play a meaningful game in almost 2 years.Gore looks like a nice play this week again. You had a nice draft.

Well, I've been going back and forth on this a lot. Part of me just wants to get Reggie into my lineup... its like playing with a new toy christmas morning. My gut says Gore and Bush over McGahee and Taylor though. I gotta go with the gut, not the head.

 

[Rounders]

Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.

So with D.Morgan out this week, does that change your thoughts about Talyor?http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2586244

I have Taylor this week as well and I'm trying to decide between him and Dillon. Right now I'm leaning towards Taylor only because I'm afraid of Maroney stealing touches from Dillon.

I actually have that same decision in my work league (my less important league).I'm going with Taylor right now. If Morgan's out, I think that will give him a little more room to run at the second level... maybe he'll break one.

As much as I like Dillon's matchup this week, we know Chester is going to touch the ball a lot more than Dillon will.

My thoughts exactly.....I just know that who ever I leave on my bench is going to have a better week. It always happens. And for those that say start both, I can't because I already have Barber, and I'm not sitting him.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Thanks for the work. And appreciate it over the last 2 weeks. It is always a huge interest to see others opioions and ideas about given circumstances. Appreciate your insight even though I disagree with a few; if you continute to do it weekly then good on you.

Thanks.

 

[JuniorNB]

There are two things I look at with Larry Johnson this week: (1) whether the likely increased workload will help him or hurt him; and (2) how good is Denver's defense.(2.) I think the Broncos defense is pretty darn good. Johnson had some success against it last year, but that was at home, and that was with Willie Roaf at tackle and Trent Green at quarterback. At this point, you almost have to write off what Johnson did last year because the circumstances are so different this season.

Re: (2) - Was at STL-DEN game last week and Broncos did an excellent job against SJax. The 121 yards are deceiving - he had 2 long runs as the Rams were running out the clock. 13 of his 22 carries were 3 yards or less. The STL passing game was misfiring - as I'd expect KC's to this week. Denver will be able to commit to the run until the Chiefs prove they can move through the air. Its a tough matchup for LJ.

I watched Jackson closely last week and was very impressed. Sure, he had quite a few runs for losses, but he's always been a league leader in that category.Jackson looked very good on a bunch of carries. I saw about four or five where he stiff armed a linebacker and blew right by him.Long runs are deceiving when a team is trailing, not winning. He got those long runs when Denver knew they'd be running.Larry Johnson had an 18 yard run when the Cheifs were down 20-3. THAT'S deceiving. Cinncy could have cared less if Kansas City wanted to keep running tha ball at that point. When a team's winning, and your back can still bust off nice runs, when everyone in the stadium knows you're running, now that's impressive.

 

[broncofan13000]

Let me add my thoughts on 4 RBs. All 4 are on my main league team, and I figure I've spent more time thinking about these 4 RBs than the others, so I'll limit my comments to just these 4 RBs.Willis McGahee - I drafted this guy as my RB1. He is on the bench this week. I think he's in for an average day. Something between 70 and 90 yards rushing. Its 50/50 he gets 1 td, and he's got an outside chance for two. Ultimately, I think Buffalo will move the ball through the air this game. Evans shredded Miami's secondary last year, and Miami's secondary is dinged up right now. So, unless they get up a lot of points (which I don't consider likely), I'm just seeing an average, solid weekend from McGahee.Reggie Bush - I drafted this guy as my RB2. He is starting this week. It is only a matter of time before this guy breaks a dump off screen or a cutback run for a long touchdown. Given GB's crummy D, I think this is the week it happens. I see Bush having a great combo yardage week, roughly 150 yards combined. And I think that there is an 80% chance he sees the endzone once, and 20% chance he sees it twice.Chester Taylor - I drafted this guy as my RB3. He is on the bench this week. I like Taylor. He's gonna see the ball a lot. However, I want to see better production from him on a per carry basis. If Minnesota falls behind at some point, I wonder how involved he'll be. He's clearly going to catch some passes in a Brad Childress offense, but I don't think we've seen how Minnesota will react if they're being blown out yet. I think Chester will put up 100 combo yards this week, with a 40% chance of finding the endzone.Frank Gore - I drafted this guy as my RB4. He is starting this week. Whats not to love about this guy? I was insanely lucky he fell far enough to be my RB4. He has talent, and now he's got opportunity. I don't think the Rams D is any more formidible than the Cards. Actually, the Cards and Rams are very similar teams, with very stong offenses and middle of the pack defenses. I see a similar week for Frank. He'll lower his head and pick up the rushing yards early in the game, and if they fall behind, he'll be the recepient of the Norv Turner dump off pass we all know and love. I see another 150 combo yards for Gore this weekend, and he is an 80% bet to score 1 TD, and I'd say 20% chance to score a second.So, this week its Gore and Bush starting, McGahee and Taylor benched.Last week I started Gore and McGahee. I didn't have the balls to start Bush until I'd seen some more of him. I was very enthused by what I saw.Feel free to comment.

I would feel safer starting your 3rd and 4th RB over your RB#1 (you have nice depth at RB by the way)

 

[msommer]

1 thing I'd like to add. There are some posts about how many I am getting right/wrong, folks it's not a prediction thread like the Oddsmaker. It's an anlysis thread based on personal views and some raw stats early in the season. I hope you do what FBG encourages you to do as well...and think for yourself. Just because 4 websites say that Chester Taylor is going to run for 100 yds and a TD...doesn't make it true. You look at all the info you can gather then you use that ole noggin on top and make an educated guess for the weekend.The more banter, analysis, and info you can read up on the better. This isn't a science and it never will be.

And thanks for sticking your neck out

 

[Ears]

I watched Jackson closely last week and was very impressed. Sure, he had quite a few runs for losses, but he's always been a league leader in that category.

Jackson looked very good on a bunch of carries. I saw about four or five where he stiff armed a linebacker and blew right by him.

Long runs are deceiving when a team is trailing, not winning. He got those long runs when Denver knew they'd be running.

Larry Johnson had an 18 yard run when the Cheifs were down 20-3. THAT'S deceiving. Cinncy could have cared less if Kansas City wanted to keep running tha ball at that point. When a team's winning, and your back can still bust off nice runs, when everyone in the stadium knows you're running, now that's impressive.

JrNB, you make a good point about rushing when you're ahead. When SJax breaks into the secondary he's a beast. When a back can do that with everybody looking run, it is impressive. My point was that up until that last series he had 20 carries for 70 yards - a fairly modest afternoon. The Rams' offense never looked like they could take control of the game, even with 5 turnovers and good field position. Denver's D had a lot to do with that, and I'd look for them to be a tough test for KC's offense this weekend.

 

[notoriousbob]

I would be wary of J Lewis against Oakland. Minus his one 50 yard run, LT's rushing numbers were not fantastic. Oakland's DL looked tough. The only bright spot I see is that the Oakland offense will be putting upa bunch of 3 and outs, so Jamal will be on the field all day.

Did I just talk in a complete circle? Sorry.

 

[nygiants56]

great job!

as for LJ, wouldn't the Chiefs being forced to use a backup QB like Huard , actually mean more touches for LJ?

I understand the Broncos will likely load the box, but LJ got hardly any carries at all last week, and still did well,considering the injury to Green..I think Herm might feed LJ the ball 30-35 times this weekend..

 

[Jazzman]

Great read. TYVM

 

[Ministry of Pain]

great job! as for LJ, wouldn't the Chiefs being forced to use a backup QB like Huard , actually mean more touches for LJ?I understand the Broncos will likely load the box, but LJ got hardly any carries at all last week, and still did well,considering the injury to Green..I think Herm might feed LJ the ball 30-35 times this weekend..

What if the Chiefs handed the ball off to me 50 times this weekend? What would MoP's stats be? Not very good I assure you as I do the Texas Two Step trying to get out of the backfield. Johnny Lynch meet Larry Johnson....Larry Johnson meet Mr. Lynch.

 

[FBGirl79]

Great stuff....I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

I agree...great article. I have the same "problem" of choosing 2RBs between R. Johnson, S.Jax, Gore, & FWP...I'm not complaining though! I'm definitely starting Johnson, I think the Browns will force the Bengals to run the ball all day but I started FWP last week instead of S.Jax and after the fantasy points Gore put up last week, I'm torn between S. Jax & Gore thinking he might put up similar numbers this week.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Great stuff....

I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

Frank Gore: Don’t trip over yourself inserting him into the starting line up this week. Rams gave up almost 6.5 ypc last week…how the heck did they beat Denver? Larry Allen is lost for about a month but the Niners actually have a decent OL as we have talked about and I see them running well again on Sunday. They might actually win this week. Gore should rack up 100+ on the ground and another score this week. We called for 100 yds and a score last week for Gore…boy were we wrong…he almost doubled the anticipated outputWho`s'' WE''????Is this a cut and paste????c`mon tell the truth

 

[BustedKnuckles]

I would be wary of J Lewis against Oakland. Minus his one 50 yard run, LT's rushing numbers were not fantastic. Oakland's DL looked tough. The only bright spot I see is that the Oakland offense will be putting upa bunch of 3 and outs, so Jamal will be on the field all day.Did I just talk in a complete circle? Sorry.

Rivers aint no Mcnair....if oakland pays to much attention to lewis they will pay dearly for it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great stuff....

I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

Frank Gore: Don’t trip over yourself inserting him into the starting line up this week. Rams gave up almost 6.5 ypc last week…how the heck did they beat Denver? Larry Allen is lost for about a month but the Niners actually have a decent OL as we have talked about and I see them running well again on Sunday. They might actually win this week. Gore should rack up 100+ on the ground and another score this week. We called for 100 yds and a score last week for Gore…boy were we wrong…he almost doubled the anticipated outputWho`s'' WE''????Is this a cut and paste????c`mon tell the truth

If you can find it any where on the web other than the site I submit this to simultaneously when I put up the thread in here...I'll change my avatar and anything you desire in my sig for a month! I write "we" at times simply because of the fact this does go up somewhere else...and I consider that everyone on these boards is a part of it with the input I gather thru the week on the boards.

Wouldn't you like to discuss Wimer's RB match ups...I would but "we" can't so I do this instead. I don't think you can post subscriber info over here on the boards last time I checked.

 

[AbidingDude]

its great that so many are contributing their thoughts and insights, but others still need to catch on

Some of the backs that I have and have been thinking about:

Jama Lewis - I think he will be in for a decent game against the Raiders. Some have pointed out that the Raiders actually did a pretty decent job of shutting down the run in the second half. But this is also when the Chargers started playing pretty conservatively. I think they made it a little easier for the Raiders to stop the run, especially when they were not passing. The announcers also said that the Raiders had started the game in a defense with a passing defense of something like 7 defensive backs in the game. If that is how they plan on shutting down a passing team, then running backs will be able to rip off the 50 yarders against them. The announcers also said that the Raiders had finally switched out of that defensive set in the second half - or maybe it was late in the second quarter. Anyway, it was well after LT2 had his 100 yards. Of course the fact that the Ravens are pretty balanced will lead to an early lead and lots of runs for Lewis. A solid play IMO. On the other side, Lamont Jordan is not a good play.

Steven Jackson - The 9ers didn't look particularly strong stopping the run, and that was against a pretty weak offensive line. They are still playing around with their defensive alignment and personel. I think the Rams offense will be too much for them to handle. I expect Jackson to have his 24 - 28 touches with 150 combined yards and a touchdown. On the other side, I expect Gore to get plenty of touches, but his yards will be down a little as I think the 9ers will be playing from behind more.

Deshaun Foster - I am worried with SSmith out, but I expect the offense to rebound a little against the Vikings. Vikings do look pretty decent on both sides of the ball, so Carolina better show up. This match up looks okay but not great. So I am not excited about it, but he could be serviceable. I know Atlanta talked a lot about being reinforced agains the run with some of the offseason aquisitions... so maybe they have improved. Or maybe I am tryin to justify Carolina's poor performance, and a rebound this week. On the other side I think Taylor is going to be similar to Westbrook this year in that even when the line doesn't open holes, he will still pile up yards in the passing game. I think this means he will probably have a decent game against the Panthers.

Rhodes - The Giants are going to be very good on defense. That being said, Rhodes did not look to have any quickness or burst to hit the hole well enough. So eventhough he is getting more of the carries and looks like he could add up enough yardage to have around 80 yards and a touchdown this week, I think Addai could get more looks sooner rather then later. This week might indeed be a good week for him to break out.

Lundy - need to see the running game get better then 2 ypc before he is a start.

Maroney - definitely a spot starter already. He looks like the real deal and will be ripping off enough long runs to get him more then 50 yards each week. And with those long runs will come some TDs. Already receiving more carries then Dillon is a good sign as well. Fortunately I dont have to depend on him yet, but will be anxiously watching the games to see if he has become the main guy yet. On the other side I have no idea if Barlow will get enough carries to be playable or not.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Good read, MOP. I like your analysis. I am still starting Jamal over Caddy this week, though

 

[Keys Myaths]

If you don't mind, MoP, I'm going to go through and interject my thoughts. Kudos on doing this every week.

Buffalo at Miami

Willis McGahee: Miami gave up 143 yards on the ground last week and a decent 3.8 ypc. Pittsburgh’s OL is far better than Buffalo. McGahee posted about 90 yds on the ground last week. I look for Miami to come out and really try and pounce on the Bills. McGahee might be looking at around 70-80 on the ground but unlike last week should find the end zone once this week. Not a horrible match up for him.

I agree. Miami's run defense is a little overrated, and McGahee should break out this week. He's not a horrible option at all, and I don't see 12-13 backs with more potential, either. He's not a fantastic option, but he's solid.

Ronnie Brown: Brown owners thought last week was OK with 2 rushing TDs…wait till they see what the boy does this week to a Bills team that allowed 183/4.5 ypc on the ground last week against the Patrioits which had virtually no WR threats. With Chambers occupying the secondary I look for brown to get loose this week at home. 20-24 carries, at least 100+ rushing yds and TD.

I disagree with this. Maybe I'm still down on Ronnie Brown, but he really didn't show me much at all last week. In PPR leagues, he's a MUST start, because Miami is including him in their passing offense, which is a very good sign. However, in non-PPR, he seems like a 70-80 yard back that'll score a few touchdowns. I just don't see him as a consistent threat for 100+ yet.

Carolina at Minnesota

Chester Taylor: Made for a good week for his owners with the TD…but struggled unnign with 31 carries and not reaching the century mark. Carolina allowed 250+ yds on the ground last week. 5.4 ypc and 3 runs of 20+ yds…yikes! Dan morgan went down in that game but he isn’t the whole defense. I look for Carolina to bite back this week as they were humiliated at home against the Falcons last week. Tayloe owners will expect for him to duplicate Dunn’s numbers form last week…I don’t see it.

I do, but in a different way. Taylor is becoming the centerpiece of that offense behind that OL, and could be the surprise of the week. He's not going to gain 150 yards on the ground, but should have a solid, solid game.

DeShaun Foster: Disappointing. No other way to describe it last week. With Steve Smith out this offense changes drastically. Foster owners better hope Smith can make a go of it this week. Vikes gave up 103, a rushing TD, and 4.1 on the ground last week. Hard to gauge how good or bad they are…I would say they are middle of the road.

Sit him if you can. Foster's time is running out in Carolina...and the wear and tear on him is showing. I thought this last year, and I was wrong, but I haven't stopped believing it yet.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Reuben Droughns: It wasn’t supposed to get much easier than a home opener vs the Saints…but Droughns was held in check. Under 30 yds rushing. He actually has a good match up this week. The Bengals kept LJ in check last week but gave up 4.5 ypc. Look for Droughns to get back on track this week. Something in the vicinity of 75-100 yds and maybe a TD as well.

Not a chance. Droughns isn't for real. He had a good year last year, but it was just that...it was above average. However, he slipped toward the end of last year, and Cleveland just isn't good enough to support a consistent 1100+ yard back. Cincy's defense is for real. I'd sit Droughns if you can.

Rudi Johnson: Stud…no need to worry about match up with him right now. Cleveland allowed 150 yards but 3.8 ypc. RJ will be fine.

Yep. Must start.

Detroit at Chicago

Kevin Jones: Chicago did give up 4.5 ypc last week. What was encouraging about KJ last week were his 8 targets in the Mike Martz pass attack. Jones will have his work cut out on the ground but he might catch enough balls to make due as a decent RB2 again this week. Smart owners will trade for him before he actually has a big game and the price shoots up.

I like the last line, because it's very true. I wouldn't start Jones this week unless you have better options, but he's very good trade material after this week.

Thomas Jones: Still the starter. Nothing special last week. Detroit was though and held Seattle to just 3.5 ypc…will be interesting to see how Chicago does against a semi decent defense this week. I look for Jones to have a decent day but this is not a slam dunk match up by any stretch.

He'll be fine. Everyone has a bad day, and last week, it was Jones. Chicago's line is fine, and they run the ball a lot, especially when they're ahead. Jones will put up good stats this week.

Houston at Indy

Wali Lundy: Till Houston can get their running game together I would steer clear. The Giants are a good run blocking team so don’t be lured into thinking Houston will be able to do the same to Indy.

Perfect. Lundy is a must-sit if you have better options.

Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai: Rhodes is starting for the moment. He and Addai will have good days for the Colts as they will be ahead and have the luxury of running the ball more. Houston gave up 130 yds and 4.3 ypc to an Eagles team that is not a power running team…Rhodes should have the better of it.

Start Rhodes if you have him. He's going to have a monster game, and there will be whispers of Addai sitting for a while longer. Houston's defense is awful.

New Orleans at Green Bay

Reggie Bush: Just start him…especially in the flex. 10 targets in the passing game and you aint seen nuthin yet!

Deuce McAllister: I have owners in several leagues that are starting him as a RB2…He will not be getting much other than his rushing yds. If he gets 15 carries a week on average..that will amount to roughly 60-80 yds…I think he is a distant 2nd on this team.

Exactly my thoughts here. In PPR leagues, Bush is a top 8 back this week.

Ahman Green: Start him if you must. I want to evaluate him 1 more week. NO gave up only 85 yds last week but almost 4 ypc..so maybe Cleveland just didn’t try hard enough. Saints are on the road again this week, I see them as a big letdown this week and probably will resemble the Saints we are more accustomed to. Green has a chance to supplicate his numbers of a week ago.

I think Green is a decent start this week. GB seems to want to run the ball, and I don't think they're going to give up on that concept after just one game.

NY Giants at Philly

Tiki Barber: Not an easy match up but there is no question you will play him.

Correct, plus, with his involvement in the passing game, there are no real bad matchups for him.

Brian Westbrok: Don’t look for him to have as big a day rushing the ball…his yards are gonna come thru the air. NY held Indy to 2.4 ypc last week…WOW!

Correct again. You don't sit Westbrook for the same reasons you don't sit Tiki (except the stud part.)

Oakland at Baltimore

Lamont Jordan: I said Jordan owners would be singing the blues early in the season. That will continue this week. I would seriously consider benching him if you have some other options.

Yep. HOWEVER--if the LaMont owner panics and trades him for peanuts after this week, I'd seriously consider it.

Jamal Lewis: As bad as Oakland was in giving up 194 yds on the ground it was only at a clip of 4 ypc. That isn’t horrible. Lewis owners need not expect LT type numbers this week.

Yes, but at the same time, he's not going to rush for 40 yards. I expect a 90/0.8 TD out of him this week.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

“Cadillac”: Looked more like a Plymouth last week…bad joke I know. The Falcons numbers are deceiving. 61 yds but over 4 ypc last week. I look for the Bucs to actually have some success running the football this week. Cadillac will get lose and also find pay dirt this week…mark it down.

I don't agree. Cadillac is ONLY good when TB is ahead. His yards last year came from when TB was running against a tired defense late in the game to sustain a lead. Atlanta wins this game, so I don't expect big things from Caddy.

Warrick Dunn: OK, he looked great last week. But the Bucs only allowed 3.0 ypc last week in a 27-0 BLOWOUT!!! Dunn will have a very mediocre day against his old team. He has a couple of nice match ups after this week…look for a quiet day from Dunn.

I agree. I think Vick is the smart play this week, but Dunn is the weak play. Start him if you have to, but don't expect huge things.

Arizona at Seattle

Edge: AZ still sucks running the football. The Niners…THE FLIPPIN SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS held them to 2.9 ypc last week. Edge owners should shop him to death this week…as his stats were actually pretty good. There are a bunch of RBs you could likely acquire for him right now. He will have rough sledding in Seattle this weekend. I talked about the trio of LBs that Seattle has and they looked terrific on Sunday. I expect them to be very stingy on rush defense most of the season.

Arizona's running game still sucks. Edge owners, repeat that to yourself at least ten times. Then, repeat it again, and get whatever value you can for him.

Shaun Alexander: Easily had one of the worst games of the season last week. He’ll be fine and he gets back on track with the Cardinals this week. Arizona gave up a whopping 6 ypc last week…6! Shaun will score a ton on Sunday.

Yep. Shaun owners, stop panicking now.

St.Louis at San Francisco

Steven Jackson: The Niners did a good job of stopping the run last week. Andy McCollum was lost for the season and will not be replaced easily. I have not liked what I have seen form St Louis so far…just the fact that SJax is getting a full load is not reason enough to be happy. The pass attack looks terrible right now and if that continues then defenses will wise up. Gone are the 3 and 4WR sets so SJax will see more and more 7 and even yes 8 man fronts. He will be fine this week in SF but I see trouble brewing on the horizon.

I don't agree. St. Louis's passing game is still strong, even though they won't do it as often, so opponents will have to respect the pass. I think this is Jackson's year. I expect him to break the top 3 before the end of the year. He's a must start.

Frank Gore: Don’t trip over yourself inserting him into the starting line up this week. Rams gave up almost 6.5 ypc last week…how the heck did they beat Denver? Larry Allen is lost for about a month but the Niners actually have a decent OL as we have talked about and I see them running well again on Sunday. They might actually win this week. Gore should rack up 100+ on the ground and another score this week. We called for 100 yds and a score last week for Gore…boy were we wrong…he almost doubled the anticipated output.

Start him unless you have a much better option. The Rams' defense sucks. Again, repeat that to yourself. Denver just played horribly, as they tend to do occassionally.

Kansas City at Denver

Larry Johnson: FF owners had the worst scenario on Sunday…Trent Green is gone for at least the next couple of games. LJ will get a full workload and Denver was gashed for 4.5 ypc on Sunday. I temper my enthusiasm for LJ with Damon Huard under center right now.

Bah. I would agree, except Huard will look for those short passes to LJ all day long. He gets 150 total yards and a touchdown this week, possibly two.

Tatum Bell: He has been named the starter but Shanny insists Mike Bell will get worked into the line up and whoever has the hot hand will see the most carries. Chefs held the Bengals to 3.4 ypc on Sunday. Maybe Herm can rally the troops but Denver can run on anyone they want to. Either Bell might be a decent play till we see which one can maintain the job. Tatum did have over 100 yds last week.

Tatum is a must-start this week. Denver always beats up on KC, and Tatum will break one.

New England at NY Jets

Corey Dillon: Everyone seemed enamored with Maroney but they seem to have glossed over the fact that Dillon had a very nice game on Sunday. He ran well and as long as he is healthy this is a workload that will be pretty evenly split. This is not so great for FF owners but I think Dillon is the safer start right now as he will get most of the goal line work for the time being.

Laurence Maroney: Could be starting at some point down the road. For right now FF owners should simply enjoy his preogression. At some point soon he may be a decent spot start.

I'm staying away from NE running backs right now unless I can help it. It's a scary proposition to be starting them.

Derrick Blaylock: The Jets did not run the ball well. Blaylock had around 18 carries for less than 40 yards rushing…not good. At some point Barlow will be taking over the starting duties.

Kevan Barlow: Did not have a spectacular day stats wise but he scored a TD and if the Jets can muster a passing game…something they missed last season…then you might see some holes open up for the RBs. Their OL has a couple of rookies…good rookies though…look for them to get better and better every week. Ferguson and Mangold will make a major difference in their OL as the season progresses. Barlow to me is the safer start right now if you are in a pinch.

If you're in a pinch, well, pray that the Jets pull a miracle. I just don't see Blaylock OR Barlow doing much this week.

Tennessee at San Diego

Travis Henry: Fact is he is getting the goal line carries so that makes him a better play to me. However I wouldn’t start him against San Diego right now. The Chargers have picked right up where they left off last season. They stifled the Raiders to less than 50 yds rushing last week. Lamont Jordan looked helpless on the field. Let the Titans ride your bench this week if you can help it. Travis Henry may be available on your WW…if that is the case you should grab him.

Henry is the start, because of Brown's injury problems. However, he has problems of his owns, so keep your eye on him.

LaDainian Tomlinson: May have a slightly tougher go of it this week. He is fun to watch run the football. Looks like he was the best of the early 3 drafted in leagues this season. Will it keep up?

No, he won't. He's the #1 RB in FF, and will actually have a better week than he did Week 1. Oakland's defense actually played fairly well against him last week.

Washington at Dallas

Clinton Portis: Check the injury report but he had 39 yds and a TD last week…one would think he will get a bigger load this week as Washingotn is desperate for a win. SO id Dallas. One of these preseason playoff pimped teams is going to go 0-2. Ouch! If Portis is even probable I would probably play him this week. I don’t expect him or Julius Jones for that matter to have big days rushing the football on these defenses.

Julius Jones: See Portis.

I don't like starting either one this week. However, if Portis is declared to be 100% this week, HE'S a must start.

Pittsburgh at Jax

FWP: Start him every week. He is the focal point of the offense right now. It won’t be easy to run on Jax but the Pittsburgh OL is really good and will open plenty of holes for FWP. Remember the Jags suffered a major blow on their OL with Hayward going down for the season.

Fred Taylor: Only way he puts up good stats this week is if he can find pay dirt. Otherwise I expect him to have a low output this week.

Agree on both counts.

Time for you all to chime in. Last week's thread was awesome and I wanted to thank all that participated, we turned that into over 3 pages.

If you have a question about your line up, you should use the ACF, there are quality FBGs that will help you there. However if you can provide some analysis, or state why you are leaning one way or the other...then please post away and we'll try and help. Just try to lay off the "pick 2" form these 4...at least give us an idea or something to work with.

Cheers!

Hope that helps give another perspective.

 

[stevegamer]

Guys I have on my dynasty roter and my thoughts:

Parker:

Simply a must start every week unless 2 other guys are jumping out at me. Even facing Jax, he's one of my top 2. Steeler style football is good for RB value!

KJones:

Happy to see the work in the passing game, not happy to see him facing Chicago.

TJones:

Had an off week last week, and the Detroit D looked nice against Seattle. I think the Lions D is going to be the surprise D of the year.

Rhodes:

Houston D is not good. rhodes is the starter, but Addai is threatening. The Giants stoned these guys last week, but NYG>>>HOU. Playing the matchup here, and hoping it allows Rhodes to cement the job.

Blaylock:

I actually needed to do an edit to remember to include him. He didn't play well, and may still be the nominal starter. I don't think he holds off Barlow for much longer, and is an emergency-only option at this point.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

its great that so many are contributing their thoughts and insights, but others still need to catch on

Some of the backs that I have and have been thinking about:

Jama Lewis - I think he will be in for a decent game against the Raiders. Some have pointed out that the Raiders actually did a pretty decent job of shutting down the run in the second half. But this is also when the Chargers started playing pretty conservatively. I think they made it a little easier for the Raiders to stop the run, especially when they were not passing. The announcers also said that the Raiders had started the game in a defense with a passing defense of something like 7 defensive backs in the game. If that is how they plan on shutting down a passing team, then running backs will be able to rip off the 50 yarders against them. The announcers also said that the Raiders had finally switched out of that defensive set in the second half - or maybe it was late in the second quarter. Anyway, it was well after LT2 had his 100 yards. Of course the fact that the Ravens are pretty balanced will lead to an early lead and lots of runs for Lewis. A solid play IMO. On the other side, Lamont Jordan is not a good play.

Excellent point!!!

Steven Jackson - The 9ers didn't look particularly strong stopping the run, and that was against a pretty weak offensive line. They are still playing around with their defensive alignment and personel. I think the Rams offense will be too much for them to handle. I expect Jackson to have his 24 - 28 touches with 150 combined yards and a touchdown. On the other side, I expect Gore to get plenty of touches, but his yards will be down a little as I think the 9ers will be playing from behind more.

Deshaun Foster - I am worried with SSmith out, but I expect the offense to rebound a little against the Vikings. Vikings do look pretty decent on both sides of the ball, so Carolina better show up. This match up looks okay but not great. So I am not excited about it, but he could be serviceable. I know Atlanta talked a lot about being reinforced agains the run with some of the offseason aquisitions... so maybe they have improved. Or maybe I am tryin to justify Carolina's poor performance, and a rebound this week. On the other side I think Taylor is going to be similar to Westbrook this year in that even when the line doesn't open holes, he will still pile up yards in the passing game. I think this means he will probably have a decent game against the Panthers.

Rhodes - The Giants are going to be very good on defense. That being said, Rhodes did not look to have any quickness or burst to hit the hole well enough. So eventhough he is getting more of the carries and looks like he could add up enough yardage to have around 80 yards and a touchdown this week, I think Addai could get more looks sooner rather then later. This week might indeed be a good week for him to break out.

Lundy - need to see the running game get better then 2 ypc before he is a start.

Maroney - definitely a spot starter already. He looks like the real deal and will be ripping off enough long runs to get him more then 50 yards each week. And with those long runs will come some TDs. Already receiving more carries then Dillon is a good sign as well. Fortunately I dont have to depend on him yet, but will be anxiously watching the games to see if he has become the main guy yet. On the other side I have no idea if Barlow will get enough carries to be playable or not.

Liked a lot of your points and bolded the ones I felt were exceptional

 

[Kleck]

Nice thread. Love the disagreements and discussion in here.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you don't mind, MoP, I'm going to go through and interject my thoughts. Kudos on doing this every week.Hope that helps give another perspective.

Awesome Keys, I didn't want to requote it all to save a little space but I read every word...really good stuff.

 

[KCC]

Yet another great thread, MoP.

I noticed the Philly DEF didn't scare you off of Tiki and was wondering what you thought about Jacobs. I own him in a TD-heavy-scoring league and was considering giving him the nod over Droughns (who was pulled at the goalline last week) and Mike Bell. If it were performance scoring league, I'd obviously go with a different RB, but I liked how Jacobs looked against the Indy DEF.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Yet another great thread, MoP. I noticed the Philly DEF didn't scare you off of Tiki and was wondering what you thought about Jacobs. I own him in a TD-heavy-scoring league and was considering giving him the nod over Droughns (who was pulled at the goalline last week) and Mike Bell. If it were performance scoring league, I'd obviously go with a different RB, but I liked how Jacobs looked against the Indy DEF.

Considering Droughns had all of 2 TDs last year...Jacobs 7 with a lot less carries...yeah I might lean Jacobs too.

 

[LordHusker]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

Hey Dr Who, who are you talking to, me?

 

[Keys Myaths]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

Are you including me in this "both", or someone else?I don't "hate" Edge. I hate his situation. I think he scores about 8-10 TDs, but his rushing totals will be pretty disappointing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

Are you including me in this "both", or someone else?I don't "hate" Edge. I hate his situation. I think he scores about 8-10 TDs, but his rushing totals will be pretty disappointing.

His OL is not good, they're not gonna be good. SF had one of the worst defenses heading into the season. Go down their roster and find me the best player at each position on defense...I bet most people have never heard of any of them. They got rid of Carter and Peterson...just ridiculous. If they couldn't run on them especially keeping them loose with a lead and Warner throwing for over 300 yards...They could improve this week I guess but there seems to be a long pattern now with their OL...if Edge can't make it happen...it's only going to get worse when they face better teams IMO. They have spent a fortune on that OL and thru the draft and have little to show for it.Sell him while you can get good value for him...it's not like he didn't produce last week...we're just saying from our observations it might not be abd time to shop him...now if in 4-5 weeks his stock goes south Lord husker...don't come cryin to us... I know you'll take it like a man if that were to happen and Lord knows we could be way off here...but it looks like the Cards are trying to replicate the Colts from 2004...throw throw and throw some more.

 

[(HULK)]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

Sometimes, not always but sometimes, footballguys is slow to adjust. I think they have too strong of a bias towards history and not enough towards things that have changed. I was way down on Edge and Lamont this season, to the point that I did not consider them 1st rounders at all. I felt like the writing was on the wall for both of these guys. Footballguys will come around, but only after there is some evidence to support it. At this point, all we have are guesses, and in the business of prediction the future, MOST of the time it pays to be a little conservative, which is why they temper the impact of new situations.

 

[einstein2u]

Edge will get at 25 carries.....some around the goalline....easily a top 15 back....but not top 5 anymore.

 

[cgcloutier]

Great stuff....I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

I agree...great article. I have the same "problem" of choosing 2RBs between R. Johnson, S.Jax, Gore, & FWP...I'm not complaining though! I'm definitely starting Johnson, I think the Browns will force the Bengals to run the ball all day but I started FWP last week instead of S.Jax and after the fantasy points Gore put up last week, I'm torn between S. Jax & Gore thinking he might put up similar numbers this week.

Well change of plan in my line-up...This is tough to do, but I am going to go with Gore & Westbrook. Westbrook is a much better reciever than Parker, and he put up some pretty good numbers against the Giants last year. My league scores 2pts for every 10 receiving yards. Gore also had a decent game against STL late in the season last year with 2tds. Parker had sub par totals against Jacksonville on 21 carries for 55 yards. Also Westbrook & Gore are at home.Westbrook: 16/66 and 4/57 against GiantsGore: 10/68 w/ 2td's against STL

 

[LordHusker]

You guys both hate Edge, don't you? It's weird how FBG's are sticking by him to a degree. Do you guys both not think he'll get quite a bit of goal-line work with that passing offense getting near the end zone?

Are you including me in this "both", or someone else?I don't "hate" Edge. I hate his situation. I think he scores about 8-10 TDs, but his rushing totals will be pretty disappointing.

His OL is not good, they're not gonna be good. SF had one of the worst defenses heading into the season. Go down their roster and find me the best player at each position on defense...I bet most people have never heard of any of them. They got rid of Carter and Peterson...just ridiculous. If they couldn't run on them especially keeping them loose with a lead and Warner throwing for over 300 yards...They could improve this week I guess but there seems to be a long pattern now with their OL...if Edge can't make it happen...it's only going to get worse when they face better teams IMO. They have spent a fortune on that OL and thru the draft and have little to show for it.Sell him while you can get good value for him...it's not like he didn't produce last week...we're just saying from our observations it might not be abd time to shop him...now if in 4-5 weeks his stock goes south Lord husker...don't come cryin to us... I know you'll take it like a man if that were to happen and Lord knows we could be way off here...but it looks like the Cards are trying to replicate the Colts from 2004...throw throw and throw some more.

Look, I'm smart enough to know that subconsiously, I want my idiotic 7th pick in the draft to not be a huge disappointment. But because it's a fairly TD-heavy league, I'm actually more concerned whether Edge gets chances to score than racks up huge amounts of rushing yardage. That said, everything you say makes sense. Never bench your studs, they say, but I'm benching Edge this week and starting Julius and Tatum.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Comments on a few players I like from your list:

FWP: Explosive player. You can't sit him because he handles the rock a lot and when he hits the second level no one is going to catch him from behind. A threat to score a 50 yard TD any week. Might lose goal-line carries to Poop, which is of course, a minus. With Big Ben back, he should get some room to run from a D that must respect Miller and Ward.

C. Taylor: He's going to handle the rock a TON. His line appeared to get better as the game went on. Once they "gel" as a unit (yes, I believe in this phenomena) this guy will be a beast at the goal line. He's a huge part of the passing game. Steal of the draft if you got him in the 3rd or 4th round. Should do basically what Jordan did last year, if not better. (Yes, I own this guy in every single money league I am in)

Westbrook: Wonder about the division of workload between he and C-Buck. Still, Westy is so explosive you can't possibly sit him unless you want to cry in your beer as he takes a screen pass 50 yards to the house.

Ronnie Brown: Stud. Stud. Stud. I don't care that he didn't find room against Pit (who really does?). Hudson Houck will whip that line into shape as he did last season with similar talent. What is encouraging his his involvement in every facet of the game and his strong nose for the endzone.

Maroney: It's too late to buy this guy, but boy, would I. He looks like Edge pre knee surgery. If anything happens to Dillon... the sky is the limit. He could win championships singlehandedly (a la LJ last year) if the wheels fall off the Dillon train.

MoP - nice post. Keep up the good work.

 

[blenderfrog]

Good insight MOP - I'm hoping you're wrong on Dunn though, I sat him last week because of his match-up. I'm most likely going with him against Tampon Bay.

 

[redsoxfan]

Let’s assume you actually have some options at RB this week. Let’s take a peek at the games and breakdown the match ups.

Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai: Rhodes is starting for the moment. He and Addai will have good days for the Colts as they will be ahead and have the luxury of running the ball more. Houston gave up 130 yds and 4.3 ypc to an Eagles team that is not a power running team…Rhodes should have the better of it.

I agree with everyone that this is some good analysis and opens the door for some nice discussion. My thought/question on the Indy situation - I would expect Indy to jump out quickly on the Texans (not a bold prediction there). If they have a comfortable lead at the half, wouldn't it make sense for Dungy to give Addai a heavy workload in the 2nd half to further evaluate his talent? I think that makes him a decent RB3 option this week, but that could just be me justifying a possible start? Thanks for the nice work.

I was thinking the same thing. Although Rhodes had the better fantasy game last week I actually thought in watching the game that Addai looked like the better back. Quicker, faster, more explosive. Rhodes didn't show anything special at all IMO.It seems to me that Indy is going to want to work on some of the problems they had last week with their running game. Best way for them to do that is use their passing game to build up a quick early lead and then see if they can use their running game to hold on to the lead. From my perspective it seems like they have more to gain in the long run by giving those reps to Addai.

Last week I started Barlow as my RB3 but this week I've got Addai penciled into that spot. The only thing that will likely change my mind is if there's some announcement out of NY that says Barlow will get a lot more of the work than Blaylock.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Good insight MOP - I'm hoping you're wrong on Dunn though, I sat him last week because of his match-up. I'm most likely going with him against Tampon Bay.

don't worry, he'll keep rolling... if the big yardage isn't there, the endzone will be.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Great stuff....I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

I wouldn't begin to sit and tell you to bench Westy or Parker but I have a feeling Gore will outpace at least 1 of those 2.

i have the same trio and same plans. gore could outscore (oops, sorry for the rhyme), but too hard to predict. may also depend on league scoring, since westbrook can contribute more receptions and return yards than the others. i think he's returning punts with sheppard (sp?) out.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Reuben Droughns: It wasn’t supposed to get much easier than a home opener vs the Saints…but Droughns was held in check. Under 30 yds rushing. He actually has a good match up this week. The Bengals kept LJ in check last week but gave up 4.5 ypc. Look for Droughns to get back on track this week. Something in the vicinity of 75-100 yds and maybe a TD as well.

Rudi Johnson: Stud…no need to worry about match up with him right now. Cleveland allowed 150 yards but 3.8 ypc. RJ will be fine.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

“Cadillac”: Looked more like a Plymouth last week…bad joke I know. The Falcons numbers are deceiving. 61 yds but over 4 ypc last week. I look for the Bucs to actually have some success running the football this week. Cadillac will get lose and also find pay dirt this week…mark it down.

Warrick Dunn: OK, he looked great last week. But the Bucs only allowed 3.0 ypc last week in a 27-0 BLOWOUT!!! Dunn will have a very mediocre day against his old team. He has a couple of nice match ups after this week…look for a quiet day from Dunn.

Frank Gore: Don’t trip over yourself inserting him into the starting line up this week. Rams gave up almost 6.5 ypc last week…how the heck did they beat Denver? Larry Allen is lost for about a month but the Niners actually have a decent OL as we have talked about and I see them running well again on Sunday. They might actually win this week. Gore should rack up 100+ on the ground and another score this week. We called for 100 yds and a score last week for Gore…boy were we wrong…he almost doubled the anticipated output.

Great post! Love the replies. A few disagreements.Droughns. Not sure what you see here. Cincy held LJ in check on the road in KC. The ypc are a little misleading. They held LJ to 4.0 ypc. That number was skewed by 2 late 4th Q runs totaling 19 yards with 6 minutes left and the score 20-3. I'm sure Cincy would gladly give up as many runs as KC wanted at that point. Until then, LJ was 15-49, around 3.3 ypc. I can't think of any offensive position where Cleveland has an advantage over KC. Plus, Cincy is at home. Droughns may pick up a TD - (no way to count on that) - but it wouldn't surprise me if Harrison outproduced his yardage total.

Cadillac. This is similar to the Droughns analysis. The 4 ypc were skewed by a late 4th Q reverse by Carter with Carolina down 20-6. Atlanta held Foster to under 4 ypc and dominated Carolina's offense on the road. He may have a better game tahan last week, but I don't see anything that would indicate he'll have a good week.

Gore. I check my lineup 3 times a day to make sure I have him listed as a starter.