What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
What a week we just wrapped up. A slew of injuries to get into and now we have bye weeks thrown in on top of all of that. I will try and highlight some potential WW pick ups along the way too. Some of you are suffering out there, wallowing at 1-2 or 0-3, but maybe there is a silver lining on your team if it is still in tact. How would you like ot be 2-1 but have just lost Deuce for the season, or SJax for awhile as your RB1…FF life can always get a little worse folks.

I want to thank everyone for an awful lot of sincere PMs over the past several weeks. I have gotten stories from people that are brand new to FF, some folks that are running different sites out there, a couple people that live in the far reaches of the world. I had some suggestions for fonts and color…I’ll do my best but it just adds more time to an already long process.

Special reminder that we try and stay away from WDIS posts. Now you can list 3 players you have, give a brief synopsis of what you feel is going to happen and who you are leaning towards playing, nothing wrong with that. Hell, I have almost all 32 starters on at least one of the teams in all the different leagues I play in so I’m basically doing the same thing in the OP sort of speak. But we really want to stay away from “ADP or Jordan”, I’ll hang up and listen. The whole point of these posts are to really equip you with some info that will aid you in making the decision on your own.

Also I posted some basic rules in week 1 and I am simply going to highlight one of them, and that is “Be nice to each other”. I am not going to waste time arguing with anyone that wants to post inflammatory remarks in the thread, it’s childish, and you’re not going to get a reaction from me, just a PM from the mods.

Let’s jump to week 4!

Baltimore at Cleveland:

Willis McGahee: FWP, Rudi, Lamont Jordan, they all have had good to great days against the very giving Cleveland Browns’ rush defense which is allowing 4.9 ypc and 176 yds a game on the ground. Owners have to think McGahee will produce RB1 type stats this week.

Jamal Lewis: The Ravens are giving up only 2.9 ypc on the ground. They have one of the stiffest rush defenses in the league and almost all RB have to be potential bench players when facing the Ravens. Last week, Lewis ran for 56 yds on 15 carries and had 2 catches for 22 yds…nothing like what he did to Cinci…people were chasing those stats and came up short. Lewis is not a great play this week although I will say that there are no absolutes and for several people with bye week issues, Lewis may be all they have to go to.

Chicago at Detroit:

Cedric Benson: The Bears are reeling after the Sunday Night debacle at the hands of the Cowboys. Benson had about 50 yds and a score. The best news for owners is that no one behind him is really getting any work either. Benson should have a huge week if you off the stats. Now I have some concerns but on paper Cedric should shine against the Lions and that very iffy rush defense…they just didn’t even show up against Philly last week. The Lions are giving up 4.3 ypc.

Tatum Bell: Had 5 receptions for 25 yds and another 5 carries for 20 yds, he is completely useless to owners right now…in PPR leagues he still didn’t make it to 10 points last week. And now Kevin Jones is in the mix. Forget what the Bears did against the Cowboys defensively last week, Detroit is not nearly as effective at running the ball.

Kevin Jones: Had a TD last week. I wouldn’t say he’s all the way back but for owners with bye week issues, you might look here. I know Chicago let MB III get a lot of points against them but this week will be different. They have a lot of pride and I don’t ecpect any of the Lions’ RB to have great days on Sunday.

Green Bay at Minnesota:

Green Bay RB: Bench them ALL! The Vikes give up 2.5 ypc anyways but no one on GB is worth a start at the moment. If they knew they couldn’t run the ball on SD, I am sure they must know how lethal the Vikes rush defense and their 2.5 ypc are. Stay away if you can help it.

Adrian Peterson: The pack have not let a RB run wild on them yet but the Vikes main offense is running the ball. They let a game slip away form them last week yet again. This team could easily be 3-0 right now, sort of depressing for Vikings fans. I want to see the injury report on Chester Taylor but even if he is going to play, I expect ADP to get the bulk of the carries. He looks pretty good and I suspect one of these weeks he is going to have a true monster game. Right now he is pushing about 100/1 per week and owners have to be happy with that so far.

Chester Taylor: See the injury report but I would think he will be limited to 8-10 touches in the game.

Houston at Atlanta:

Ahman Green/Ron Dayne/Samkon Gado: Again, we will need to see the IR. I was quite frankly depressed about Green’s injury last week during the game, definitely cost me points in several leagues I was in. Dayne was inactive last week and the Texans didn’t mount much rush offense on the Colts. If Green is absolutely going to play, I might roll the dice on him but wouldn’t gamble on any of the other backs for the moment. This might change later in the week as we get more info.

Warrick Dunn: Norwood owners think he should not be starting, I don’t think it matters one way or the other. Dunn had 55 yds rushing but 4 receptions which helped in PPR leagues, almost as good as a TD. The Texans are only giving up 3.6 ypc and 72 yds a game. Dunn is not a great play this week really.

Jerious Norwood: Until he actually starts or can get 15+ touches a game he must stay on your bench.

NY Jets at Buffalo:

Thomas Jones: He had 110 last week but no TD and I think owners were wanting a little more form him. He is once again a pretty nice play this week. The Bills are giving up 5.2 ypc and 177 yds a game, and their starting MLB is OUT, Jones should be a starter for you this week.

Leon Washington: Had a nice return for a TD last week but aside form that he did very little.

Marshawn Lynch: I have been dogging this guy since preseason but he is performing OK so far. Running hard and form an NFL perspective he looks solid. This is a week to exploit with him. Whether it’s Trent Edwards or not under Center, the only thing the Bills seem to be able to do right now is run the football and the Jets defense is terrible. Ronnie Brown racked up about 200 yds and 3 scores last week…what else do you need to know?

Oakland at Miami: I have very mixed feelings on this game. On paper it screams great match ups for both sides, but when you look a little closer you see two offenses that struggle at times, and in the very muggy Miami, we might see a defensive struggle break out for awhile on Sunday. Just when you think you have a beat on teams…I call it the NFL or “No Freaking Logic” League for a reason.

LaMont Jordan: Miami has a terrible defense right now, plain and simple. Zach Thomas should be back in there on Sunday, but Portis, MB III, and Thomas Jones have all enjoyed success on Miami thus far. Playing the percentages, Jordan looks like another great start this weekend.

Ronnie Brown: Will not come close to what he did last week. I still think his OL is terrible in the middle. Oakland is surrendering 4.8 ypc however on the ground. The Phins are near the bottom of the league however in rushing offense despite what they managed in the Meadowlands last weekend.

St Louis at Dallas:

SJax: OUT with a groin tear…not a pull but a partial tear. Shark Pool resident Keys Myaths posted last night about the extent of this injury, anywhere from 2-8 weeks…you have been warned.

Brian Leonard: If he is available on your WW pick him up, but the Rams OL has been hit hard with injuries so I am not optimistic he will come in and produce at a high level. Dallas is a mixed bag on defense but not having to gameplan for SJax, and Bulger has a broken rib…this game screams BLOWOUT and I can’t imagine Leonard will have great stats on Sunday.

Travis Minor: One Leonard injury from seeing the field. Might get some looks to relieve Leonard as well. I also look for St Louis to possibly sign someone this week to shore up their backfield.

Marion Barber III: Just continues to knock in points for his owners. Had a great game against the vaunted Bears defense on Sunday Night…no reason to sit him right now, he is a must start almost every week. The Rams are giving up 4.7 ypc and 152 yds to boot, plus 5 rushing TD izncluding 3 last week on the road to the Bucs!

Julius Jones: I expect a blowout so we might see a little more of JJ this week. Certainly running far behind MB III right now but I expect him to have a lot more touches on Sunday as the Cowboys should manhandle the Rams.

Seattle at San Fran:

Shaun Alexander: He has a broken bone in his wrist and will run with a cast…I don’t doubt he can still do some things but it has to be painful to play with this injury. I have no confidence in his back up, Maurice Morris. Shaun has had some really impressive games against the 49ers over the years and he should see the bulk of the work, but make sure and check the IR later in the week.

Frank Gore: Should fare much better this week. Seattle is actually allowing a decent 3.9 ypc but San Fran will be excited to see someone else other than Pittsburgh this week. I expect Gore to bounce back strong. Gore racked up 212 yds rushing in one game against Seattle last year, and 180 total yds and a TD in the other. Should be a great week for Gore owners.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game of two teams that are 2-1 but still have some real questions.

Cadillac: His ribs seem to be a problem. He did rush for a TD but had to leave the game, his back ups then proceed to rip off a lot of yards and a couple of TD as well. If he can play, he will. He seems very determined but durability is becoming an issue for him, not sure what else I can say. Jeff Tefertiller, FBG, has been on top of this since last season and when I spoke to him earlier today he only confirmed that he doesn’t think Caddy would flourish with 12-15 carries a game like a Westbrook, but he doesn’t seem to be able to take the pounding week in and week out either.

Michael Pittman: If Cadillac cannot go then Pittman is the better of the two backups in PPR leagues for sure. He can ctach the ball out of the backfield but I think he would likely split carries with Graham.

Earnest Graham: Looked tremendous running against the tired Rams defense at the end of the game on Sunday but he did put it away for the Bucs. A WW pick up at the least right now.

DeShaun Foster: Had 2 TD and over 100 yds last week. I can’t imagine he will be able to do the same against Tampa Bay this week. The Bucs are giving up 4.0 ypc but they tighten up when you get on their side of the field. They have allowed only 2 rushing TD on the season. Foster and the Panthers rushing offense are avg 4.6 ypc right now. That’s awful good. Against the Bucs…22/56, 16/23, 14/46, 20/82, 13/48, and never not one TD ever. He’s due?

DeAngelo Williams: Not enough touches to warrant a start.

Denver at Indy:

Travis Henry: Jax had some absurd drive for like 12 minutes in the 1st quarter going into the 2nd quarter…Henry just never got into the flow of the game. He did score a TD but he had low production. I expect a much better performance out of him this weekend. A must start in all leagues.

Joseph Addai: Who have the Broncos really shut down of the opposing RB they have faced? None really so I expect that 4.6 ypc they give up to be exploited, especially if John Lynch is out this week. Lynch ahd 2 TD last week but he didn’t do anything special, I promise. He still is likely a top3-5 finisher for the year based on his situation. I look for him to have a huge game this weekend.

Kansas City at San Diego: Remember when we might get excited about LT and LJ facing off?

Larry Johnson: San Diego is giving up 3.7 ypc which is good but it’s nothing like what LJ saw with the Vikes last weekend. I expect SD to game plan for LJ but he should see a little more success than what he had last week. It’s just a rough time for LJ owners, and even though he has a nice soft 2nd half of the season, I am worried his OL is so bad right now that he just won’t be able to be counted on by FF owners.

LT: Has been pretty average so far, and the Bolts are a shell of what they were last season. You are going to start him no doubt but I am not sure LT should be the automatic #1 on cheat sheets every week.

Pittsburgh at Arizona:

FWP: The Cards are not terrible against the run but not that great either with 4.0 ypc. FWP is a solid RB1 right now, and he is getting plenty of looks. I expect him to have another solid to great day on Sunday.

Edge: After looking at what the Steelers did to Gore last weekend…just for reference though, James had 57 yds on 10 carries against the Ravens…that wasn’t bad at all but they fell behind and had to throw throw throw with Warner. Because of bye weeks I am sure many will be forced to play Edge and he might surprise some owners on Sunday. The Steelers are yielding 4.0 ypc but only about 80 yds a game, maybe Whisenhunt will find something and try to pound it a little more.

Philly at NY Giants:

Westbrook: Must ply as long as he is healthy…not much else to say really.

Buckhalter: If he is available on your WW and you own Westy, time to go pick up C-Buck. I know they drafted Hunt but he is more for short yards, Bucky would be the guy to get a lot of the passes OOTB if Westbrook were to miss any real time.

Derrick Ward: I have not seen anything that says that Brandon Jacobs is going to play this week. Ward has performed outstanding for the Giants and I think he might see some real action even when Jacobs makes it back. Fact is he is avg 120 total yds a game right now. Winning cures a lot of problems and even though the Giants stink, they could get back to .500 this weekend and that makes a big difference. Ward will have a tough time keeping it going as Philly has a 3.5 ypc avg on rush defense…pretty stout really.

Brandon Jacobs: Will not be playing to my knowledge.

New England at Cincinnati:

Laurence Maroney: Seems like he will have to score from long range because Morris once again had a TD and Maroney didn’t score and had no catches again meaning he is one dimensional. Right now, we can only hope for about 75-100 yds from him and perhaps a breakaway TD.

Sammy Morris: Vulture of sorts. Cinci has a soft rush defense, we know that. Ranked dead last in the league with 5.4 ypc, I would start Morris in a flex if you have bye week issues, just don’t sit at the computer waiting to see how many touches he gets during the game, just read the box score at the end.

Rudi Johnson: Forget about Kenny Watson, his back up, forget about whether he will or won’t play…he says he is…I want to know how he ends up with 17 carries for 9 yds against the Seahawks who are not world beaters on rush defense…I think I can tell you. That OL has gotten a lot worse with the departure of Eric Steinbach and now they are extremely focused on protecting Carson Palmer over blowing open holes in the run game. I don’t think Rudi has looked all that good in any of his 3 games so far. He has some stats but he hasn’t had the holes to run through like in precious years and I am very concerned about him moving forward for the season. I don’t think he is a great play against New England but I expect most owners to play him anyways.

And I have to talk about some RB that are on bye weeks.

Deuce McAllister: Unfortunately he is lost for the season with a torn ACL, he might have played his last ball…was on the sidelines in street clothes last night which is never a good sign. I feel badly for Deuce, the NFL is a violent sport and this week many of us were reminded of that. I also think Deuce has very little value in Dynasty Leagues as well.

Reggie Bush: I know many Bush owners are jumping up and down thinking that the Deuce injury will help Bush. The reality though so far is that Bush is a very avg NFL RB. He needs to be in open space and he just isn’t finding that. He did have 2 TD last night but owner should be embarrassed in PPR leagues where he logged in 20+ points last night despite only racking up 30-40 yds on about 15+ touches…pathetic. He will see an increase in the workload but I don’t expect him to get 20 carries a game, he’ll have a short shelf life if they do that to him.

Aaron Stecker: I expect him to shoulder some of the load in NO although he has proven to be a very unreliable player. I wouldn’t be in hurry to pick him up.

Corey Dillon: He wants to play for a SB contender, and NO is not anywhere clse to that but Dillon could be brought in and probably used in the same manner as what McAllister was being used. Just a thought and I have nothing to back it with.

Good luck this week everybody! And take a walk thru the AC forums on Sat nights/Sun Mornings, it’s fun and you will likely find me in there.

 
Reggie Bush: I know many Bush owners are jumping up and down thinking that the Deuce injury will help Bush. The reality though so far is that Bush is a very avg NFL RB. He needs to be in open space and he just isn’t finding that. He did have 2 TD last night but owner should be embarrassed in PPR leagues where he logged in 20+ points last night despite only racking up 30-40 yds on about 15+ touches…pathetic. He will see an increase in the workload but I don’t expect him to get 20 carries a game, he’ll have a short shelf life if they do that to him.

why? 20 carries a game is not a lot - and he has proven he can take the pounding... he still got hit on those 80+ receptions last year. I'm a Bush owner and while I feel bad for McAllister (a true professional that handled the hype of Bush better than anyone could have expected last year) - I AM jumping up and down with the thought that Bush will get a chance to shoulder more of the load. I AM NOT jumping up and down at the thought of him running behind that O-line all year.

 
Reggie Bush: I know many Bush owners are jumping up and down thinking that the Deuce injury will help Bush. The reality though so far is that Bush is a very avg NFL RB. He needs to be in open space and he just isn’t finding that. He did have 2 TD last night but owner should be embarrassed in PPR leagues where he logged in 20+ points last night despite only racking up 30-40 yds on about 15+ touches…pathetic. He will see an increase in the workload but I don’t expect him to get 20 carries a game, he’ll have a short shelf life if they do that to him.

why? 20 carries a game is not a lot - and he has proven he can take the pounding... he still got hit on those 80+ receptions last year. I'm a Bush owner and while I feel bad for McAllister (a true professional that handled the hype of Bush better than anyone could have expected last year) - I AM jumping up and down with the thought that Bush will get a chance to shoulder more of the load. I AM NOT jumping up and down at the thought of him running behind that O-line all year.
20+ carries a game is 320 carries...we know he will catch about 80 balls...that is almost 400 touches, and about 100 too many IMO. You can be excited as a Bush owner but I don't think Reggie is a very good NFL RB right now. He doesn't hit the holes, he dances.I equate it to Tedd Ginn Jr, also a high draft pick and a guy he wishes he was more like and that is Devin Hester. Follow me for a minute here. Ginn is dancing all over the place before he ever gets to the hole...BAD BAD BAD...Hester on the other hand HITS the hole, then he makes someone miss with his excellent abilities and then he takes off leaving half the retun team with their jocks hanging down aroud their ankles...now if Reggie Bush would simply HIT the holes and then start making moves when he gets into the LB/Secondary...but he is running like he did in college where he could dance around and move people out of the way with blockers and whatnot...he simply can't do that in the NFL.

 
why? 20 carries a game is not a lot - and he has proven he can take the pounding... he still got hit on those 80+ receptions last year.
1. 20 carries IS a lot. Question: How many running backs averaged 20 carries/game and could play in 16 games? Answer: Six.2. No, he hasn't proven that. 89 receptions=5.5 per game--and he ran out of bounds on a few of them, or got hit by corners/safeties.
 
I just got this in my PM, poster's name is not important but this is a great question so I am going to post this in here...

"2 questions from your post.

Are you looking at him to under perform as a whole for the rest of the season?

If so, would you look to trade him to an owner who has LJ or Maroney type player (examples of players who owners may be frustrated with)?"

I am looking for Rudi to under perform the rest of the season. I think his OL is not good from a run blocking perspective, despite what Watson did in relief last week. I have always had a reserved opinion about RJ and was never truly impressed with his 1,200-1,300 yds and 12-13 TD every year...seems like a RB in that team with that talent around them should post those numbers if not better.

The 2nd part is even better.

Maroney had a shoulder injury and while I have been dogging him in the weekly write ups, I also think you should notice what JT pointed out earlier when I spoke with him, and that's the fact his workload is increasing. A shark should look at that and say "Hey, this situation could change"...maybe they will lean on Maroney more as the season moves along. He might be a great buy low candidate right now and I could see the upside of moving Rudi. Now people are going to bash this idea but you have to think ahead...if Maroney knocks in a TD every week for the next 3-4 weeks, this board will be kicking themselves that they didn't go lock up the RB1 on a team that has an outstanding OL and a terrific passing game to take all the pressure off the RB. Do you think DCs are game planning to stop Maroney? (Expletive) NO!!! They are trying to stop Moss and Brady and that passing game right now.

I will leave the LJ situation alone because we just have not seen anything to make us believe that even against the easy defenses that he will rack up big points.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not a good week for running backs.
You are correct Mr McGroin...in fact I was going to make light of that at the end...with the bye weeks and injuries, I would be looking for flex points from your WR this week. Even guys that maybe have been down a little bit. I think the Qbs and WRs are going to be doing a lot of the scoring this weekend.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
As a Ronnie Brown owner, I'm looking for a nice game from him this weekend. Oakland is right near the bottom in yards per carry allowed, rushing TD's allowed, total yards, and points allowed. This all coupled with the fact that they've played the Lions, Browns and Broncos. Cameron is actually starting to believe in Ronnie, plus he's been involved in the passing game. Obviously 200 yards and 3 TD's seems impossible again, but definitely 100+ total yards and 1-2 TD's seems very possible.

 
Thanks for the information on Caddy. I'm still hoping someone on my bench comes to life so I'm stable when I have to swap out. Meanwhile I'll ride FWP/Henry.

I feel bad for some of the folks who have to deal with injuries and unexpected sucky running back play. So far it's all about the QB and WR's. :goodposting:

 
The Deuce McAllister injury really submarined one of my teams, but since we was off anyway this week, I'm left with the "fun" decision of Sammy Morris over Kevin Jones to start alongside ADP. The choice would probably be reversed three weeks from now, but I don't think Kevin Jones is 100% ready to get a regular share of carries, not to mention the Lions playing a fired up Bears team in a must-win situation.

Morris is the kind of player you hope you never have to start while Maroney is healthy, but has a good matchup this week. I figure his floor is 40 yards with a strong possibility for a TD. I'll be more than happy with 8-10 points from Slammin' Sammy all things considered.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
By the way, it's a bye-week quandry, but I'm starting Kevin Jones this week.

The Bears defense is in bad, bad shape. Kevin looked fairly decent in limited time, and Tatum Bell is not the answer. The biggest part was that Jones didn't suffer any ill-effects from his injury. He should be fine this week, and is an incredibly sneaky play.

If you're in a PPR league and in a bind, I'm taking Jones over a LOT of other 3rd tier options.

 
I disagree with the Ronnie Brown statement in terms that Cameron is starting to believe in Brown. Going into Wk 3 there were sooooo many folks bashing Cameron and his utilization of Brown and the running game. Sorry Brown owners but Cameron went with what was working and the run FINALLY worked. Don't get ahead of yourselves. The Dolphin O is still and will continue to be a major work in progress.

 
Maroney had a shoulder injury and while I have been dogging him in the weekly write ups, I also think you should notice what JT pointed out earlier when I spoke with him, and that's the fact his workload is increasing. A shark should look at that and say "Hey, this situation could change"...maybe they will lean on Maroney more as the season moves along. He might be a great buy low candidate right now and I could see the upside of moving Rudi. Now people are going to bash this idea but you have to think ahead...if Maroney knocks in a TD every week for the next 3-4 weeks, this board will be kicking themselves that they didn't go lock up the RB1 on a team that has an outstanding OL and a terrific passing game to take all the pressure off the RB. Do you think DCs are game planning to stop Maroney? (Expletive) NO!!! They are trying to stop Moss and Brady and that passing game right now.
Great writeup again MOP :unsure: However, in response to the above, how is Maroney's workload increasing? In the first 3 weeks, he's gotten 20, 15 & 19 carries. Morris has gotten 11, 10 & 12. Maroney is getting roughly 2/3 of all carries right now, and BB is showing no signs of increasing his workload. Just curious, what makes you beleive Maroney will start getting more carries proportionate to Morris? Also, the chances of Maroney getting TD's the next 3-4 weeks without GL carries is very slim IMO. In fact, his TD outlook remains very bleak for this year.

I think moving Rudi for Maroney is a bit premature, especially with Cinci's playoff schedule, and the fact that Rudi will still have plenty of GL plunges this year.

 
Reggie Bush: I know many Bush owners are jumping up and down thinking that the Deuce injury will help Bush. The reality though so far is that Bush is a very avg NFL RB. He needs to be in open space and he just isn’t finding that. He did have 2 TD last night but owner should be embarrassed in PPR leagues where he logged in 20+ points last night despite only racking up 30-40 yds on about 15+ touches…pathetic. He will see an increase in the workload but I don’t expect him to get 20 carries a game, he’ll have a short shelf life if they do that to him.

why? 20 carries a game is not a lot - and he has proven he can take the pounding... he still got hit on those 80+ receptions last year. I'm a Bush owner and while I feel bad for McAllister (a true professional that handled the hype of Bush better than anyone could have expected last year) - I AM jumping up and down with the thought that Bush will get a chance to shoulder more of the load. I AM NOT jumping up and down at the thought of him running behind that O-line all year.
20+ carries a game is 320 carries...we know he will catch about 80 balls...that is almost 400 touches, and about 100 too many IMO. You can be excited as a Bush owner but I don't think Reggie is a very good NFL RB right now. He doesn't hit the holes, he dances.I equate it to Tedd Ginn Jr, also a high draft pick and a guy he wishes he was more like and that is Devin Hester. Follow me for a minute here. Ginn is dancing all over the place before he ever gets to the hole...BAD BAD BAD...Hester on the other hand HITS the hole, then he makes someone miss with his excellent abilities and then he takes off leaving half the retun team with their jocks hanging down aroud their ankles...now if Reggie Bush would simply HIT the holes and then start making moves when he gets into the LB/Secondary...but he is running like he did in college where he could dance around and move people out of the way with blockers and whatnot...he simply can't do that in the NFL.
He seems to hit the hole when there is a hole - i.e TD run #2. And he seems to be able to get around the corner when he needs to - i.e TD run #1. Like I said - I am excited that he will take on more carries but not excited that he will be running behind a seemingly terrible O-line. It's not as if McAllister was getting any yards and he does nothing but hit the holes. There are none to hit.c'mon - 20 carries a game is NOT a lot for a feature back - If Bush gets 20/game from here on out he's at ~290 for the year - big deal. If Warrick Dunn can average 277 over the last three years than Bush can push 290.

 
c'mon - 20 carries a game is NOT a lot for a feature back - If Bush gets 20/game from here on out he's at ~290 for the year - big deal. If Warrick Dunn can average 277 over the last three years than Bush can push 290.
I'll let you fill in the hole in your own logic here.
 
Chicago at Detroit:

Cedric Benson: The Bears are reeling after the Sunday Night debacle at the hands of the Cowboys. Benson had about 50 yds and a score. The best news for owners is that no one behind him is really getting any work either. Benson should have a huge week if you off the stats. Now I have some concerns but on paper Cedric should shine against the Lions and that very iffy rush defense…they just didn’t even show up against Philly last week. The Lions are giving up 4.3 ypc.

Tatum Bell: Had 5 receptions for 25 yds and another 5 carries for 20 yds, he is completely useless to owners right now…in PPR leagues he still didn’t make it to 10 points last week. And now Kevin Jones is in the mix. Forget what the Bears did against the Cowboys defensively last week, Detroit is not nearly as effective at running the ball.

Kevin Jones: Had a TD last week. I wouldn’t say he’s all the way back but for owners with bye week issues, you might look here. I know Chicago let MB III get a lot of points against them but this week will be different. They have a lot of pride and I don’t ecpect any of the Lions’ RB to have great days on Sunday.
By the way, it's a bye-week quandry, but I'm starting Kevin Jones this week.

The Bears defense is in bad, bad shape. Kevin looked fairly decent in limited time, and Tatum Bell is not the answer. The biggest part was that Jones didn't suffer any ill-effects from his injury. He should be fine this week, and is an incredibly sneaky play.

If you're in a PPR league and in a bind, I'm taking Jones over a LOT of other 3rd tier options.
Hell, even if you're not in a PPR league, I wouldn't dismiss the Lions running game out of hand. I was looking at the points allowed by position on my league site, and the Bears have been the 4th most generous to RBs (tied with BUF, with DET, STL and NYJ being more porous) through the first 3 weeks of the season (1 pt per 10 yards rush/receive; 6 points per TD). Granted, that's been to the likes of LT, LJ and MBIII, but outside of Barber, LT and LJ have been somewhat disappointing.

With the Lions at home, and their passing game clicking, that might open things up for the Detroit RB. A swing pass or screen for a TD (or 2) is certainly not out of the question as far as I'm concerned.

That said, I'm not playing any Lions RBs this week (going with Alexander and Ward). But the situation isn't all that bad.

 
Maroney had a shoulder injury and while I have been dogging him in the weekly write ups, I also think you should notice what JT pointed out earlier when I spoke with him, and that's the fact his workload is increasing. A shark should look at that and say "Hey, this situation could change"...maybe they will lean on Maroney more as the season moves along. He might be a great buy low candidate right now and I could see the upside of moving Rudi. Now people are going to bash this idea but you have to think ahead...if Maroney knocks in a TD every week for the next 3-4 weeks, this board will be kicking themselves that they didn't go lock up the RB1 on a team that has an outstanding OL and a terrific passing game to take all the pressure off the RB. Do you think DCs are game planning to stop Maroney? (Expletive) NO!!! They are trying to stop Moss and Brady and that passing game right now.
Great writeup again MOP :lmao: However, in response to the above, how is Maroney's workload increasing? In the first 3 weeks, he's gotten 20, 15 & 19 carries. Morris has gotten 11, 10 & 12. Maroney is getting roughly 2/3 of all carries right now, and BB is showing no signs of increasing his workload. Just curious, what makes you beleive Maroney will start getting more carries proportionate to Morris? Also, the chances of Maroney getting TD's the next 3-4 weeks without GL carries is very slim IMO. In fact, his TD outlook remains very bleak for this year.

I think moving Rudi for Maroney is a bit premature, especially with Cinci's playoff schedule, and the fact that Rudi will still have plenty of GL plunges this year.
Watch me slide out of this one... :) Week 1: Maroney 72...Morris 54

Week 2: Maroney 77...Morris 51

Week 3: Maroney 103..Morris 46

Maroney has had an increase in production in terms of yards each week while Morris has seen his production in rushing yards go down by about 15% from week 1...how's that for some serious spin?

It's by no means a slam dunk deal but it's a deal that probably could be worked between two owners. You gotta have a dance partner when you trade and this might be an idea for some owners.

 
Not a good week for running backs.
You are correct Mr McGroin...in fact I was going to make light of that at the end...with the bye weeks and injuries, I would be looking for flex points from your WR this week. Even guys that maybe have been down a little bit. I think the Qbs and WRs are going to be doing a lot of the scoring this weekend.
Starting WRs as a Flex is a great allyear play. RBs have traditionally been the go-to flex position. The tides may be turning on this. #3 wrs and low end #2 wrs have been playing well. Yardage safety blanket is there with the chance to be explosive. Per football guys stats RB #20-36. Usually where the Flex position starts and ends.

***Can someone please show how to align the grid? Much appreciated.

20 RB Benson,Cedric CHI 1 16 46 1 1 8 0 1 11.4

21 RB Jones,Thomas NYJ 1 25 110 0 2 1 0 0 11.1

22 RB Williams,Carnell TB 1 12 46 1 1 3 0 1 10.9

23 RB Alexander,Shaun SEA 1 21 100 0 2 8 0 0 10.8

24 RB Davenport,Najeh PIT 1 5 47 1 0 0 0 0 10.7

25 RB Morris,Sammy NE 1 12 46 1 0 0 0 0 10.6

26 RB Jackson,Brandon GB 1 6 22 1 3 22 0 0 10.4

27 RB Maroney,Laurence NE 1 19 103 0 0 0 0 0 10.3

28 RB Buckhalter,Correll PHI 1 7 43 1 0 0 0 0 10.3

29 RB Henry,Travis DEN 1 11 35 1 0 0 0 0 9.5

30 RB Pittman,Michael TB 1 7 56 0 3 35 0 0 9.1

31 RB Taylor,Fred JAX 1 17 84 0 0 0 0 0 8.4

32 RB Gado,Samkon HOU 1 6 12 1 3 9 0 0 8.1

33 RB Jones,Kevin DET 1 3 5 1 1 16 0 0 8.1

34 RB Lewis,Jamal CLE 1 15 56 0 2 22 0 0 7.8

35 RB Dunn,Warrick ATL 1 11 55 0 4 13 0 1 6.8

36 RB James,Edgerrin ARI 1 10 57 0 1 10 0 0 6.7

Per Footballguys stats WR #1-36. Using the entire list show how wr 3 & 4's have squeked into the top 20. Which doesn't happen as often for Rbs.

**1 WR Curtis,Kevin PHI 1 0 0 0 11 221 3 0 40.1

2 WR Boldin,Anquan ARI 1 0 0 0 14 181 2 0 30.1

3 WR Williams,Roy DET 1 0 0 0 9 204 1 0 26.4

4 WR Moss,Randy NE 1 0 0 0 5 115 2 0 23.5

5 WR Houshmandzadeh,T.J. CIN 1 1 3 0 12 141 1 1 20.4

**6 WR White,Roddy ATL 1 0 0 0 7 127 1 0 18.7

7 WR Driver,Donald GB 1 0 0 0 6 126 1 0 18.6

**8 WR Jackson,Vincent SD 1 0 0 0 6 98 1 0 15.8

9 WR Burress,Plaxico NYG 1 0 0 0 5 86 1 0 14.6

10 WR Owens,Terrell DAL 1 0 0 0 8 145 0 0 14.5

11 WR Edwards,Braylon CLE 1 0 0 0 4 83 1 0 14.3

**12 WR Jennings,Greg GB 1 0 0 0 4 82 1 0 14.2

**13 WR Mason,Derrick BAL 1 0 0 0 8 79 1 0 13.9

14 WR Johnson,Chad CIN 1 0 0 0 9 138 0 0 13.8

15 WR Branch,Deion SEA 1 0 0 0 6 77 1 0 13.7

**16 WR McDonald,Shaun DET 1 0 0 0 5 76 1 0 13.6

**17 WR Burleson,Nate SEA 1 0 0 0 6 76 1 0 13.6

**18 WR Marshall,Brandon DEN 1 0 0 0 7 133 0 0 13.3

**19 WR Jones,Brandon TEN 1 0 0 0 4 73 1 0 13.3

**20 WR Bowe,Dwayne KC 1 0 0 0 5 71 1 0 13.1

**21 WR Engram,Bobby SEA 1 0 0 0 5 62 1 0 12.2

**22 WR Curry,Ronald OAK 1 0 0 0 3 62 1 0 12.2

23 WR Chambers,Chris MIA 1 0 0 0 6 101 0 0 10.1

24 WR Davis,Craig SD 1 0 0 0 4 31 1 0 9.1

25 WR Coles,Laveranues NYJ 1 0 0 0 3 30 1 0 9.0

26 WR Jacobs,Taylor SF 1 0 0 0 2 26 1 0 8.6

27 WR Fitzgerald,Larry ARI 1 0 0 0 5 85 0 1 8.5

28 WR Wayne,Reggie IND 1 0 0 0 4 84 0 0 8.4

29 WR Moss,Santana WAS 1 1 2 0 3 82 0 0 8.4

30 WR Jones,James GB 1 0 0 0 6 79 0 0 7.9

31 WR Jenkins,Michael ATL 1 0 0 0 6 76 0 0 7.6

32 WR Gaffney,Jabar NE 1 0 0 0 2 15 1 0 7.5

33 WR Berrian,Bernard CHI 1 0 0 0 6 73 0 0 7.3

34 WR Williams,Reggie JAX 1 0 0 0 2 11 1 0 7.1

35 WR Davis,Andre' HOU 1 0 0 0 4 70 0 0 7.0

36 WR Welker,Wes NE 1 0 0 0 6 69 0 0 6.9

Yes WRs are inconsistent. For owners willing to roll the dice WRs will pay larger dividends than RB or be just as reliable in the flex.

13 #3-4 wrs that finished in the Top 22. Alot of Top WRs finished in the 20's

This topic could generate alot of discussion...and i don't want to hijack the thread completely.

 
Maroney had a shoulder injury and while I have been dogging him in the weekly write ups, I also think you should notice what JT pointed out earlier when I spoke with him, and that's the fact his workload is increasing. A shark should look at that and say "Hey, this situation could change"...maybe they will lean on Maroney more as the season moves along. He might be a great buy low candidate right now and I could see the upside of moving Rudi. Now people are going to bash this idea but you have to think ahead...if Maroney knocks in a TD every week for the next 3-4 weeks, this board will be kicking themselves that they didn't go lock up the RB1 on a team that has an outstanding OL and a terrific passing game to take all the pressure off the RB. Do you think DCs are game planning to stop Maroney? (Expletive) NO!!! They are trying to stop Moss and Brady and that passing game right now.
Great writeup again MOP :blackdot: However, in response to the above, how is Maroney's workload increasing? In the first 3 weeks, he's gotten 20, 15 & 19 carries. Morris has gotten 11, 10 & 12. Maroney is getting roughly 2/3 of all carries right now, and BB is showing no signs of increasing his workload. Just curious, what makes you beleive Maroney will start getting more carries proportionate to Morris? Also, the chances of Maroney getting TD's the next 3-4 weeks without GL carries is very slim IMO. In fact, his TD outlook remains very bleak for this year.

I think moving Rudi for Maroney is a bit premature, especially with Cinci's playoff schedule, and the fact that Rudi will still have plenty of GL plunges this year.
Watch me slide out of this one... :mellow: Week 1: Maroney 72...Morris 54

Week 2: Maroney 77...Morris 51

Week 3: Maroney 103..Morris 46

Maroney has had an increase in production in terms of yards each week while Morris has seen his production in rushing yards go down by about 15% from week 1...how's that for some serious spin?

It's by no means a slam dunk deal but it's a deal that probably could be worked between two owners. You gotta have a dance partner when you trade and this might be an idea for some owners.
I see how you can spin it that way for a trade, but that's different than saying his workload is increasing. Until Maroney starts getting more than 20 touches a game on a regular basis (which is unlikely IMO), he'll struggle to be an RB1 without the GL.
 
c'mon - 20 carries a game is NOT a lot for a feature back - If Bush gets 20/game from here on out he's at ~290 for the year - big deal. If Warrick Dunn can average 277 over the last three years than Bush can push 290.
I'll let you fill in the hole in your own logic here.
Pretend I'm obtuse. The point is that the guy is a 23 year old NFL running back - he will not break down by getting 290 carries.
 
c'mon - 20 carries a game is NOT a lot for a feature back - If Bush gets 20/game from here on out he's at ~290 for the year - big deal. If Warrick Dunn can average 277 over the last three years than Bush can push 290.
I'll let you fill in the hole in your own logic here.
Pretend I'm obtuse.
Pretend?
OK expound on why the difference of Dunn at 17 carries a game over a season and Bush at 18 carries a game will wear out Bush at 23 years old and allow Dunn to be a 1000 yard rusher at 30,31, and 32 years old...
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Corey Dillon: He wants to play for a SB contender, and NO is not anywhere clse to that but Dillon could be brought in and probably used in the same manner as what McAllister was being used. Just a thought and I have nothing to back it with.
Last I heard Dillon had grown fat and comfortable on his couch. I don't think there's any way he's a factor for anybody this week.
 
Helpful analysis, but presents a conundrum for me. I can start two from Peterson, McGahee, and Benson. I agree with you that Benson has a chance to break out this week. And I worry about Peterson losing touches to Taylor. But in the end, I think I am going with the safe choice and going with McGahee and Peterson. The pain is worse if I start Benson and the Chicago offense continues to sputter than if I start Peterson and I misread Childress' plans (who can blame someone for not understanding what he's doing?). So, not an insightful decision, but throwing it out there for others who may be facing similar decisions with Benson.

Thanks MOP.

 
Great work MOP - getting better every week! Especially loving the Addai call since I just traded for him - AND play that owner this week!

 
Helpful analysis, but presents a conundrum for me. I can start two from Peterson, McGahee, and Benson. I agree with you that Benson has a chance to break out this week. And I worry about Peterson losing touches to Taylor. But in the end, I think I am going with the safe choice and going with McGahee and Peterson. The pain is worse if I start Benson and the Chicago offense continues to sputter than if I start Peterson and I misread Childress' plans (who can blame someone for not understanding what he's doing?). So, not an insightful decision, but throwing it out there for others who may be facing similar decisions with Benson.Thanks MOP.
It always comes back to who is on your roster. LaMont Jordan is a nice play this week but would I start him over Joseph Addai? Of course not. Team rosters have everything to do with who owners can actually start on a weekly basis.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game of two teams that are 2-1 but still have some real questions.

Cadillac: His ribs seem to be a problem. He did rush for a TD but had to leave the game, his back ups then proceed to rip off a lot of yards and a couple of TD as well. If he can play, he will. He seems very determined but durability is becoming an issue for him, not sure what else I can say. Jeff Tefertiller, FBG, has been on top of this since last season and when I spoke to him earlier today he only confirmed that he doesn’t think Caddy would flourish with 12-15 carries a game like a Westbrook, but he doesn’t seem to be able to take the pounding week in and week out either.
I'm calling it now MOP, Cadillac will break the 100 yd mark this game and have 2 TDs. I know he's not been the model of consistency yet, but he is still grinding it out. He seems hungry and without Alstott he has to keep getting TDs imo.Carolina has been pretty tough v the run so far, but he Bucs seem pretty good at running the ball of late. At least with Garcia teams have to respect the pass. The Texans ripped the Panthers up a little giving up 130 or so yds, and I think the Bucs are the best rushing team the Panthers have faced yet including the Rams (they are terrible this year.).

So, I guess there is no solid evidence I can provide other than it's my opinion that if you leave Caddy on your bench this week you will regret it.

 
Chicago at Detroit:

Cedric Benson: The Bears are reeling after the Sunday Night debacle at the hands of the Cowboys. Benson had about 50 yds and a score. The best news for owners is that no one behind him is really getting any work either. Benson should have a huge week if you off the stats. Now I have some concerns but on paper Cedric should shine against the Lions and that very iffy rush defense…they just didn’t even show up against Philly last week. The Lions are giving up 4.3 ypc.

Tatum Bell: Had 5 receptions for 25 yds and another 5 carries for 20 yds, he is completely useless to owners right now…in PPR leagues he still didn’t make it to 10 points last week. And now Kevin Jones is in the mix. Forget what the Bears did against the Cowboys defensively last week, Detroit is not nearly as effective at running the ball.

Kevin Jones: Had a TD last week. I wouldn’t say he’s all the way back but for owners with bye week issues, you might look here. I know Chicago let MB III get a lot of points against them but this week will be different. They have a lot of pride and I don’t ecpect any of the Lions’ RB to have great days on Sunday.
By the way, it's a bye-week quandry, but I'm starting Kevin Jones this week.

The Bears defense is in bad, bad shape. Kevin looked fairly decent in limited time, and Tatum Bell is not the answer. The biggest part was that Jones didn't suffer any ill-effects from his injury. He should be fine this week, and is an incredibly sneaky play.

If you're in a PPR league and in a bind, I'm taking Jones over a LOT of other 3rd tier options.
Hell, even if you're not in a PPR league, I wouldn't dismiss the Lions running game out of hand. I was looking at the points allowed by position on my league site, and the Bears have been the 4th most generous to RBs (tied with BUF, with DET, STL and NYJ being more porous) through the first 3 weeks of the season (1 pt per 10 yards rush/receive; 6 points per TD). Granted, that's been to the likes of LT, LJ and MBIII, but outside of Barber, LT and LJ have been somewhat disappointing.

With the Lions at home, and their passing game clicking, that might open things up for the Detroit RB. A swing pass or screen for a TD (or 2) is certainly not out of the question as far as I'm concerned.

That said, I'm not playing any Lions RBs this week (going with Alexander and Ward). But the situation isn't all that bad.
Plus the Bears' D won't be at full strength if Harris, Briggs, and Vasher miss time, as it appears they might. And Archuleta is banged up as well. Jones might not be a terrible option this week.
 
Cheatsheet this week has Ward over Henry.

Henry listed as must start here, and Ward is a good start.

Somethings got to give.

 
:hijacked: You need to read what Cam said in press conference this week about Ronnie being a special back. It was a hundred and eighty degree turn from the way he spoke about him before. Now, we could be wrong and Cam could turn into an idiot again, but I think he got it. This week is a great matchup for any RB so hard not to like Ronnie week 4.
I disagree with the Ronnie Brown statement in terms that Cameron is starting to believe in Brown. Going into Wk 3 there were sooooo many folks bashing Cameron and his utilization of Brown and the running game. Sorry Brown owners but Cameron went with what was working and the run FINALLY worked. Don't get ahead of yourselves. The Dolphin O is still and will continue to be a major work in progress.
 
I like Dayne this week if Green sits out, which looks likely. He would have played last week but they didn't need him, according to Kubiac. Kubiac has faith in Dayne and Dayne is well suited to that offense. The matchup is a good one.

 
I like Dayne this week if Green sits out, which looks likely. He would have played last week but they didn't need him, according to Kubiac. Kubiac has faith in Dayne and Dayne is well suited to that offense. The matchup is a good one.
Except with Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones and Ahman Green out...who exactly is a threat to keep defenses honest and not stack the box to stop Dayne?
 
Keys Myaths said:
ScoobyDoo said:
Cheatsheet this week has Ward over Henry.Henry listed as must start here, and Ward is a good start.Somethings got to give.
Pretty sure MoP and David Dodds are two different people.This hasn't been confirmed, though. :goodposting:
Now that you mention it, I've never seen them together in the same room.:spooky:
 
Good work MoP... you may want to edit the OP to replace Lynch with Addai, where you say Lynch had 2 TDs last week but did nothing special.

As for me, I'm pretty forced into who I start: Addai, Ward, and Foster. I agree that Ward will see work, perhaps even the majority of it, even after Jacobs returns. He does everything well.

As for Foster, I'm pretty sure the Cats will run very well on TB. I expect another 100 yard day and at least one TD from Foster.

 
He seems to hit the hole when there is a hole - i.e TD run #2. And he seems to be able to get around the corner when he needs to - i.e TD run #1. Like I said - I am excited that he will take on more carries but not excited that he will be running behind a seemingly terrible O-line. It's not as if McAllister was getting any yards and he does nothing but hit the holes. There are none to hit.
The reason that D run worked is because it was the LAST place the D expected Bush to go. If he learns to run inside more, and defenses have to keep honest, Bush will be spectacular. I don't expect 25 carries a game, but I could see that many touches. 15-20 carries is about all he can handle, the rest made up for in catches. I actually think in the long run, the McAllister injury will be good for the Saints and Bush.It was telling the other night, when they ran the same play back to back... when Bush was in he got the end around, but when he was off the field, the hand off up the middle went to Deuce. Even though it was the same formation and everything, once the personnel changed, the defense knew what was going to happen. The Saints need to break out of their tendencies, and hopefully they now will.
 
Feel free to post any updates on injuries and I will also be on the lookout...this was put together Mon Night/Tue Morn so it's not very reflective of injury reports at the moment.

 
I like Dayne this week if Green sits out, which looks likely. He would have played last week but they didn't need him, according to Kubiac. Kubiac has faith in Dayne and Dayne is well suited to that offense. The matchup is a good one.
Except with Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones and Ahman Green out...who exactly is a threat to keep defenses honest and not stack the box to stop Dayne?
Owen Daniels?:crossesfingers:
 
I'll bump this for Sunday morning...injury reports should start to trickle in. Post anything you got. I will be in the AC Forum till about 11:3-12:00, I will have a WDIS thread going in there, it was started last night as well.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top