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RB Omarion Hampton, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
eighsse2
Footballguy
Who went 2/3? Hunter+McMillan?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep in that order. Funny part is I was considering some deals to actually move up to 2 to get Hampton.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If I have pick 2 and plan to NOT take Hampton......I would obviously do whatever I could to trade down, even 1 spot
Reel Analytics
“We go through all of the guys and it was unanimous…” - Chargers GM Joe Ortiz on drafting Omarion Hampton.
Explosive movement verified both by game film and elite testing numbers.
IGA Score®: 98.2 (top 2%)
RAS: 9.70 (top 3%)
I think he will be and no shame in that. Najee was actually pretty good last year even though I don't think the offense or system did him any favors. Was more explosive then he's ever been.
A lot of really good RB's share the role in year one, even high draft picks.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
My big fear is that he’s Javonte Williams 2.0
I would not be surprised at all if he does not start out fast. The stuff I’ve read mentions protection issues, and if he doesn’t fix that he is not likely to see a lot of the obvious pass situations.
He’ll also have Harris and potentially Dobbins to contend with as well. Dobbins was tendered so if no one signs him by 7/22 he’ll be back. Probably won’t happen but still possible. Harbaugh would love to have a 3 headed backfield.
Long term the job is his and I expect him to be a workhorse, but for year 1 I could definitely see a scenario where he underwhelms. Maybe he can be a rookie that starts off slow but finishes strong. I would probably see that as best case scenario.
This is probably not a playoff based idea. Wont make the playoffs relying on Najee. The6 need Hampton abilities from the start to even stand a chance. Takes 10-7 minimum to get to playoffs. Starting 1-4 with giving Harris 75% won’t help that cause. Maybe 55-45 Hampton to start and than 75 bt playoofs.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Is anyone saying that will happen?
warpig33
Footballguy
There's people out there saying "this team should sign Dobbins" but no traction yet. LAC signed him to his URFA tender so they get first refusal. Other teams have until July 22 I believe, to make a move. If not, LAC keep Dobbins at the URFA tender.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
thx i wasnt aware of that - while i doubt LAC would match if its a low offer who knows- that would be a disaster.There's people out there saying "this team should sign Dobbins" but no traction yet. LAC signed him to his URFA tender so they get first refusal. Other teams have until July 22 I believe, to make a move. If not, LAC keep Dobbins at the URFA tender.
Seemed to work for getting the Steeler to the playoffs.
TripItUp
Footballguy
completely disagree
The chargers are already a playoff team even without Hampton on the roster.
Do you think forgone conclusion they make playoffs not playing their best RB. Seems a little short sighted. What happened to 2023 participants Miami and Cleveland. Teams miss playoffs each and every year. Dobbins more talented than Harris.
Not like teams not nipping at their heels to make playoffs in AFC. You put out your best team week to week. Hampton brings way more dynamics than Harris. Harris just more experience but probanly slower than he was as a rookie.
Chargers will use both. I think 55-45 to start and will ramp up to more Hampton as season progresses. Chargers are still a run first team.
Did Pittsburgh make playoffs because of Harris. They probably make without him last year.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I do not think it's a forgone conclusion but I think they would be favored to make the playoffs. RBs typically don't move pointspreads or win totals...this is well known.
I don't think we're too far off...I'd put it at 40/60 in favor of Najee to start the season for the reasons previously stated.
People aren't giving Najee enough credit. Sure, he's slow as molasses, but the dude is a mack truck who hasn't missed a game in his pro career, and has only 5 fumbles in 1097 carries. And his hands are pretty good, averaging 45 catches per season. He's a healthier Joe Mixon. The Chargers were smart to bring him in.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Dobbins signing in Denver is big. I know the Harris thread is all over the place on what people are expecting. I just feel that when I watch clips of Hampton he just looks different. Harris is a good rb, but I think Hampton is gonna be an elite rb. I think as we get closer to the season it's gonna be obvious that he is just a significantly better rb and will get the lead dog treatment. I project Chargers to hit the 500 rushing attempts mark. That defense is good. Herbert is good. Coach wants to run. 250 plus rushing attempts for Hampton. Maybe 150 for Harris. Imo
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed.
The pie maybe a bit bigger than that for both RB.
I could see 250 and 200 for example if they exceed 500 total.
In redraft, I'd argue Hampton right there with guys like James Cook, Chase Brown, or Breece Hall, and I think he's more talented than any of those guys.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yep. I may be one of the few that think Hampton will be a better rb then Jeanty. My gut says 2 years from now most will agree. His tape just jumps out at you. Imo
He certainly landed in a better spot. I think they are both elite talents, but I'd certainly prefer Jeanty. No reason they can't both be top-5 guys going forward though.
What I never have gotten is the Hampton vs Henderson/Judkins arguments. I think he's light years ahead of those guys, especially Judkins who might not even be the best rookie RB on his own team.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
The Dobbins signing is likely a signal for those other two backs in Denver not RJ, the new coaching staff got their guy in RJ and all reports are they love what they see. Dobbins might get some goal line work but RJ will do what he do best.
Carry on,
Tex
FarFromHome
Footballguy
OC Greg Roman on RB Omarion Hampton:
"He's the total package. … You don't see a lot of guys find a hole like he's doing right now."
"He's the total package. … You don't see a lot of guys find a hole like he's doing right now."
Going to be tough, total team RB touches last year was just 416.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Last season JK Dobbins averaged 15 rushing attempts per game in 13 games which is on pace for 255.
Gus Edwards averaged 9 carries per game over 11 games. On pace for 153.
Some other RB had carries because these 2 missed games. I think there is a pretty clear 2 different RB roles in the offense.
Herbert 17 game average is 63 rushing attempts.
I see Hampton as a upgrade to Dobbins and Harris as an upgrade to Edwards. Which if so should mean improvement of the running game.
They would need to run the ball 50 more total than they did in 2024. I think the upgrades mean it's possible.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
This seems like a situation that we've seen many times. The box score at the beginning of the season is going to be very different from the box score at the end of the season- assuming full health which almost never happens. So have fun trying to predict that. I really like looking at the fbg snap count page and clicking through the snap counts, game logs and team target pages:
2024 team total rush att = 459 (pass attempts 509)
RB 373 (22/game)
QB 71 (4.2/game)
WR 15 (0.9/game)
However, I'm guessing that they tilt slightly more toward more like 24+ RB rush attempts per game because that seems like the coaches preferences.
OH will open up the season as a 8-15 carry back with Najee more like 12-17. They'll sprinkle in either Vidal or Haskins depending on what they think they need or whoever is injured. Haskins as the hammer and Vidal as the pass pro/ Swiss Army knife.
As the season progresses, and OH gets more experience picking up blitzes and reading coverages etc, he'll siphon off those carries from Najee and the numbers will flip to regular 15 carries per game for OH with Najee taking on a more complementary role as the B back. Once OH is up to speed, you would think that the team prioritizes getting him those targets too.
RB Targets in 2024 on the LAC (3.17 per game)
38 Dobbins
9 Vidal
4 Edwards
2 Haskins
I would predict that the RB targets with Najee and OH healthy are sort of split to start the year but tilting toward OH later in the year.
FWIW, Waldman does not bat "a thousand" on his evals but when he's really gun shy about someone that everyone else is in love with I do tend to avoid them. Last year that "saved me" from Jayden Daniels and turned me on to Jermain Burton (yikes). However it did turn me on to McConkey and Flowers and save me from QJ two years ago.
With OH, he's worried that the "build up speed" is more like Allgeier. There are limitations to his game in his "initial acceleration" and ball security as well as some learning in pass pro ahead of him. He credits him as having good footwork, makes good decisions and is generally an asset as a receiver.
I haven't done any redraft or best ball yet this year but will be keeping an eye out as I think he's going to be a good bet to be a good guy to have in the lineup late season. If he's going as a round 6 guy, he's a profile I like to have in that range. If he's going in the third or fourth round, he'll be a hard pass for me.
2024 team total rush att = 459 (pass attempts 509)
RB 373 (22/game)
QB 71 (4.2/game)
WR 15 (0.9/game)
However, I'm guessing that they tilt slightly more toward more like 24+ RB rush attempts per game because that seems like the coaches preferences.
OH will open up the season as a 8-15 carry back with Najee more like 12-17. They'll sprinkle in either Vidal or Haskins depending on what they think they need or whoever is injured. Haskins as the hammer and Vidal as the pass pro/ Swiss Army knife.
As the season progresses, and OH gets more experience picking up blitzes and reading coverages etc, he'll siphon off those carries from Najee and the numbers will flip to regular 15 carries per game for OH with Najee taking on a more complementary role as the B back. Once OH is up to speed, you would think that the team prioritizes getting him those targets too.
RB Targets in 2024 on the LAC (3.17 per game)
38 Dobbins
9 Vidal
4 Edwards
2 Haskins
I would predict that the RB targets with Najee and OH healthy are sort of split to start the year but tilting toward OH later in the year.
FWIW, Waldman does not bat "a thousand" on his evals but when he's really gun shy about someone that everyone else is in love with I do tend to avoid them. Last year that "saved me" from Jayden Daniels and turned me on to Jermain Burton (yikes). However it did turn me on to McConkey and Flowers and save me from QJ two years ago.
With OH, he's worried that the "build up speed" is more like Allgeier. There are limitations to his game in his "initial acceleration" and ball security as well as some learning in pass pro ahead of him. He credits him as having good footwork, makes good decisions and is generally an asset as a receiver.
I haven't done any redraft or best ball yet this year but will be keeping an eye out as I think he's going to be a good bet to be a good guy to have in the lineup late season. If he's going as a round 6 guy, he's a profile I like to have in that range. If he's going in the third or fourth round, he'll be a hard pass for me.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Waldman has his hits and misses, but ai love his process which is not impacted by outside rankings and preferences. Has helped me add quite a few good players that I would not have without his insight. He cannot determine landing spot/fit or how the player mentally approaches the game at the next level (although he has post draft rankings that landing spot influences). Hampton has some good traits and is in a good system for a RB, it will be interesting to see if some of those flags that Waldman saw show up even in an optimal situation.This seems like a situation that we've seen many times. The box score at the beginning of the season is going to be very different from the box score at the end of the season- assuming full health which almost never happens. So have fun trying to predict that. I really like looking at the fbg snap count page and clicking through the snap counts, game logs and team target pages:
2024 team total rush att = 459 (pass attempts 509)
RB 373 (22/game)
QB 71 (4.2/game)
WR 15 (0.9/game)
However, I'm guessing that they tilt slightly more toward more like 24+ RB rush attempts per game because that seems like the coaches preferences.
OH will open up the season as a 8-15 carry back with Najee more like 12-17. They'll sprinkle in either Vidal or Haskins depending on what they think they need or whoever is injured. Haskins as the hammer and Vidal as the pass pro/ Swiss Army knife.
As the season progresses, and OH gets more experience picking up blitzes and reading coverages etc, he'll siphon off those carries from Najee and the numbers will flip to regular 15 carries per game for OH with Najee taking on a more complementary role as the B back. Once OH is up to speed, you would think that the team prioritizes getting him those targets too.
RB Targets in 2024 on the LAC (3.17 per game)
38 Dobbins
9 Vidal
4 Edwards
2 Haskins
I would predict that the RB targets with Najee and OH healthy are sort of split to start the year but tilting toward OH later in the year.
FWIW, Waldman does not bat "a thousand" on his evals but when he's really gun shy about someone that everyone else is in love with I do tend to avoid them. Last year that "saved me" from Jayden Daniels and turned me on to Jermain Burton (yikes). However it did turn me on to McConkey and Flowers and save me from QJ two years ago.
With OH, he's worried that the "build up speed" is more like Allgeier. There are limitations to his game in his "initial acceleration" and ball security as well as some learning in pass pro ahead of him. He credits him as having good footwork, makes good decisions and is generally an asset as a receiver.
I haven't done any redraft or best ball yet this year but will be keeping an eye out as I think he's going to be a good bet to be a good guy to have in the lineup late season. If he's going as a round 6 guy, he's a profile I like to have in that range. If he's going in the third or fourth round, he'll be a hard pass for me.
Tau837
Footballguy
These facts suggest more RB touches this season:
- Dobbins was on IR amd missed weeks 13-16 last season. Per PFF:
- During those games, Chargers RBs averaged 14.75 rushing attempts and 2.25 targets = 17.0 opportunities per game.
- During the other 13 regular season games with Dobbins, Chargers RBs averaged 24.2 rushing attempts and 3.2 targets = 27.4 opportunities per game.
- Top free agent signing RG Becton is known as a great run blocker. He should be a significant upgrade over last year's RG Pipkins.
- Top offensive skill position free agent signing was RB Harris, known as a workhorse RB. He should be an upgrade over RB Edwards.
- Top draft pick Hampton is (a) a potentially great RB1 and (b) a significant commitment to the RB position, using a first round pick in such a deep RB draft. He should be an upgrade over RB Dobbins.
I could see them not getting quite to that level given that their schedule is quite a bit harder this season than in 2024, which might imply more playing from behind, and thus more passing. (Then again, that could also mean an uptick in RB targets.)
And obviously injuries could be a factor, though with both Harris and Hampton, they should be a bit better protected from that going forward.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Good post
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Only thing I took from this is that it cannot be a coincidence I read this on the same day I start my 7lb bag of pea protein. The exact same day. I'll obviously overdraft with this new development. Smh
One thing I don't understand is how low BOTH ADP's are for Hampton and Harris. FBG has them at RB22 & RB38. Fantasypros consensus has them RB21 & RB34.
Last year, Dobbins missed 4 games and finished RB24, while Edwards missed 6 games and finished RB46. The only way Hampton & Harris BOTH finish that low is if they BOTH miss multiple games. Also, I will say this - if either of them gets injured, the other will be a RB1 as long as the other isn't playing.
Last year, Dobbins missed 4 games and finished RB24, while Edwards missed 6 games and finished RB46. The only way Hampton & Harris BOTH finish that low is if they BOTH miss multiple games. Also, I will say this - if either of them gets injured, the other will be a RB1 as long as the other isn't playing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
No idea what that means and Harbaugh is not someone I think we can draw too much from. He says weird stuff and it's hard to read into it.
I take it as meaning they are on equal footing right now, which is probably excellent news for Hampton, that he's already even with a 5-year vet.No idea what that means and Harbaugh is not someone I think we can draw too much from. He says weird stuff and it's hard to read into it.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Vegas line has him at 1050 and 7 tds. Vegas is smart. That line gives me some peace in my heart for his first year outcome. The betting line puts him at rb3 right out of the gate. Upside is off the charts.
What website did you go to to see those numbers?
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Only thing I can find a tweet citing Caesars Sportsbook
Seems to read as total yards not rushing yards
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Damn. Total yards puts a little water on it. Smh
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I had a friend mention it to me in conversation. After some searching I could only find what Lansdowne posted. Seems a little early for Vegas lines honestly. Posted it to start conversation. This thread just doesn't interest people much.
Marauder
Footballguy
What you have to remember is the Vegas numbers are not projections, they're over/under numbers, which is very different. They have to be conservative by their nature, especially for RB's because so many RB's miss time with injuries. If they were to project players for 17 games and use those numbers to set their lines, the sharp bettors would pound the under across the board. Saquan's over/under for total yards is only 1450.
Edited to add: Correction. The 1450 yards o/u for Saquan is rushing yards. I don't know where that guy got that 1,050 number for Omarion. As far as I can tell neither Caesars or DraftKings has posted total yards from scrimmage numbers for RB's yet. Hampton's rushing o/u is 750. My point still stands though.
BTW, as an aside, I'm pretty sure (but I don't know for certain) that DraftKings is the main market maker for player props. Caesars and the other books typically follow them.
Last edited:
One good thing you can do with that link is compare the RB's. Does Jeanty having 300 more total yards and 2 more TD's than Hampton sound about right?
