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There are few RB I like more this year.
Funny, I was in love with him early in the offseason and that cooled to being in like with him. From what I am seeing, they are really trying to off load a lot of his receiving duties and have a true receiving / 3rd down back, whether that be Montgomery, Strong, or Robinson. Sounds like they prefer RS to be an early down back. I have also seen reports that they will try to limit his workload to keep him fresh throughout the season so he doesn't run out of gas in December again. I have seen projections with him seeing 1100-1200 rushing yards but only 200-250 receiving yards. Roughly the same total yardage but a lot fewer receptions. Who knows what they will actually do, but those are the reports I am seeing.
I’m skeptical since he was a very effective receiver.
I pretty much explained why already. They felt he played way too many snaps and wore down as the season progressed. He played on 700 snaps last year, and I think they want to reduce that load. So they would try to give him third downs off. He got the workload he did last year because DHarris was constantly injured. Over the past 15 years, BB's plan has been to use multiple backs and NOT have a workhorse back. A couple times he ended up with a guy with a big workload, but that was due to injuries to the rest of the backfield (not by design).
I guess I’ll have to keep hope alive that those rumors prove to be unfounded & that RS has a larger role this year.
He cost me a 5th round pick - not exactly free.
Agree. I’m seeing top 5.
Feel free to think what you want, but I am pretty confident that NE would pick to have RS get 15-17 carries and 3-4 receptions per game on average with the JAGs getting the rest of the touches. If we allocate Stevenson to play 14.5 games with a 5.0 ypc and 6.0 ypr, that would work out to about 1160 rushing yards, 50 receptions, and 300 receiving yards. That would probably rank him in the RB10-12 range this year.
Wouldn’t TDs give him room to move up? I could see double digit rushing TDs and 3-4 receiving TDs.
Sure . . . but TDs are highly variable. NE RB leader in total TD the past 10 years: 6, 15, 6, 7, 12, 9, 18, 7, 5, 7. Stevenson has scored 11 times in 30 games for NE.
Faulty logic. Stevenson has not shown he can play every game. He's played in 29 regular season games in two years = 14.5 games/yr. As you said, he averaged a little over 12 carries per game, and he was banged up and not quite as effective later in the season. They didn't give him the same workload by the end of the year (10 or fewer carries in 5 of his last 7 games). Like I said, here's hoping RS get 350 touches and plays in every game . . . cause if that happens NE should be a playoff team.
RS has averaged 11.8 attempts and 2.9 receptions a game over his career. What workload do you think he will get? How many games do you think he will play?
And once again, I’ll point out that it was a backfield consisting of BenJarvis Green-Ellis & a host of other forgettable RBs
I’m pretty close to your projections.
Over the past 10 seasons, the only true workhorse back in NE (for one season) was LaGarrette Blount when every other back on the roster was banged up. Sony Michel had one season when he averaged 16 carries . . . NE just does not give guys a ton of carries. It's not how BB operates. In 30 games in NE, RS has had more than 16 carries 6 times. Damien Harris was hurt or very limited in 5 of them.
RS had 3 times the snaps and 2.25 the touches. Pretty sure that wasn't the plan when the season started. But it was pretty predictable that RS would get more work than anticipated (he was better and injured less). But it took Harris getting banged up for him to get more touches.
Did not read thru all the posts, seems like the discussion centers around RS being mid rd rb1 or late rd rb1? I think he is terrific, but would probably go with the latter projection. As for who is the 2nd NE rb to own, I agree and I am all in on Strong.
True. I drafted him with that expectation.
It's all good. I trust try to provide my best guess (whether that aligns with other opinions or not).
It is funny how just 1 carry & 1 reception per game can mean the difference between say, top 12, and top 6.
The other thing about RS . . . he wasn't really a heavy carry back at Oklahoma. He averaged 5 carries his first year and 16 carries his second year. Not saying he couldn't handle a consistently bigger workload, but we haven't really seen him do it yet.
Every season is different. Things are different in NE without Damien Harris in town. However, in 30 games in NE, RS has had 15 carries 9 times and 5 targets 12 times. He's had 15 carries AND 5 targets 5 times. Of those 5 games, Harris was out for 3 of them, one was a game Harris got hurt early in the game, and the other was his first game back coming off an injury. IMO, Stevenson's floor workload wise is lower than 15 carries and 5 targets. How much lower is a point of inflection . . . and where people set that could determine if people value him as a Top 5 back, a Top 10 back, or a borderline fantasy RB1.
Sure, TDs are variable but still need to be factored in if we're talking the difference between a RB2 and a RB1, for fantasy. Stevenson seems primed to be one of the top TD scorers among RBs this upcoming season. He's the by far the Patriots most powerful runner and the Pats seem to prefer to be conservative in the red-zone.
I will answer your question as best I can, but IMO it's also pretty reasonable to predict that RS DOESN'T get 11 TD for all the reasons I have already mentioned. Last season, he had 279 touches and scored 6 times. It's not like Damien Harris was a huge TD vulture . . . he only scored 3 TD. Sure, ditching Patricia should help the offense . . . but who knows if Stevenson will be the one that gets a bigger piece of the TD pie.
He saw his touches taper off from an average of 22 per game over a 2-month stretch to about half that the last few weeks of the season. He also saw a lot fewer receptions. Sure, his touches were productive, but his workload was reduced quite a bit.
yes, of course.
Over the course of the season he averaged 11.6 rpg and 4.8 tpg. The last four weeks he averaged 11.5 rpg and 4.5 tpg. I'm not trying to attack you here, just pointing out a lot of your posts seem like real speculation (or unlinked twitter commentary) or just not based on the real numbers of what actually happened. Really the only arguments I've seen you made based on facts are all around Patriots/BB historical usage of RB. Which I kind of equate to the people who say "Don't draft an Ohio state QB, they never work out". Just seems like faulty logic as there is so much more that goes into what will actually play out (as well as why things played out the way they have in the past). Basically correlation does not equal causation. And things change for many reasons. It's not like me or others are even predicting a change. That happened last year already. We are saying there doesn't seem to be any real evidence of it changing back this upcoming season.
You foresee them increasing the amount of 12 personnel sets (I feel like I've read that a few times now, especially after adding Gesicki)? What are the chances that if Montgomery lives up to coaching staffs high expectations of last year before getting injured, he and Rhamondre spend some time on the field together with Montgomery put in motion/split out due to the lack of receiving weapons?
They already have plenty of receiving weapons, only more so if they sign Hopkins. JuJu, Parker, Bourne, and Thornton are all good but not great. Henry and Gesicki are both receiving threats. The offense should look like an improved version of the 2021 team. Everyone has more experience, BOB is a legit offensive coordinator, and the reports out of camp are all positive: the players are happy, Mac has been sharp and engaged, everyone is on the same page, and no one is griping that the coaching staff has no idea what they are doing.
