RB Situations by team (1 Viewer)

[Long Ball Larry]

Trying to make sense of some of these teams that seem unsettled in the backfield.

Will start with 2 that are not that unsettled and the starter is clear, but I do wonder how the carries will shake out:

MIN - Cook/Murray

CAR - CMac/CJA

Moving on to situations where the backs are likely going to be fairly complementary and I think a little hard to get a read on any individual's total season value at this point:

SF - McKinnon/Breida

CHI - Howard/Cohen

ATL - Freeman/Coleman

CIN - Mixon/Bernard

PHI - Ajayi/Sproles/Clement etc.

NE - Michel/Burkhead/Hill etc.

The last 2 are probably situations that I would avoid unless really stuck on who to pick.  The first 4 are situations where the first guy is probably safe pick as a fantasy starter, but they probably all have somewhat limited upside barring an injury to the other guy.  

That leads us to other situations where things are far less clear and I think that there are 14 situations like that, which I break up into 2 categories: those with rookies in the mix and those with existing or FA vets.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I look at rookies separately because I think that these are often some of the highest-value plays.  Strong rookies can jump in and play right away at RB and often come at a discount due to the uncertainty (Saquon excluded).  Tracking these rookies through the pre-season should be a key.

CLE - They didn't pay Hyde for nothing, but Chubb is clearly a factor.  I could see him being the starter at some point.  Duke is always going to be there, possibly chipping away at the value.

IND - Mack is the incumbent, but Hines and Wilkins have gotten some buzz and Mack is far from a sure thing.  New coaching staff and a healthy Luck could make this an interesting situation.

DEN - Booker is ok, Freeman has some people interested.  Not sure about this situation overall, though.

WAS - It seems like Guice is the front-runner so far and I like this value as RB16-20.

DET - Can Kerryon leapfrog the multiple vets?  Riddick will likely get his one way or the other, but this is a team screaming for a lead back.  Of course, JBC hasn't done much for the running game.

SEA - One of the hardest for me to discern.  Carson vs. Penny will be one of the biggest battles to watch, though they will need O Line improvement.

TB - Ronald Jones seems easily the most talented of their backs. 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Other battle situations:

TEN - Will Henry be the bellcow or will Lewis get a lot of touches?  Have to assume that Lewis is a big part of their plan after bringing him in as a FA.  May be a situation where you have to wait for an injury to get a true fantasy starter.

BAL - Collins vs. Dixon.  Will anyone win it outright (assuming Collins job to lose) or will they look for more of a committee approach?

The next 4 are ones that I don't have much of a handle on at all:

MIA - Gore/Drake/Ballage.  I guess Ballage could be part of the rookie section, but I see less opportunity here as of now.  Though as a late-round flyer, he certainly has a chance to jump Gore on his last legs and an inconsistent Drake.

GB - Williams/Montgomery/Jones.  I have no idea what to make of this.  Will they return to the Montgomery experiment or did Williams show enough?  Or more of a committee?

NYJ - Crowell/McGuire/Powell/Rawls.  Interested in opinions, but generally avoiding.

OAK - Lynch/Martin/Richard/Washington.  Interested in opinions, but generally avoiding.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not listed, though I guess up in the air:

BUF - McCoy's legal issues add risk to this and certainly this offense could be pretty terrible.

NO - Kamara should be locked and loaded, but in theory when Ingram comes back he could eat into AK's production

HOU - I feel like Miller is just going to get this by default and get 75% of the touches.  Foreman's injury was pretty bad, though I guess the reports are that he is looking ok.

 

[msudaisy26]

Last year we had the same discussion about Cook vs. Murray and McKinnon. We even said they didn't pay Murray for nothing, but until Cook got hurt that is exactly what they did. 

The Detroit situation is going to stink all year unless there is some injuries. I wouldn't be surprised to see if there was an Abdullah game or some other rb. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

NYJ - Crowell/McGuire/Powell/Rawls.  Interested in opinions, but generally avoiding.

McGuire is hurt but may be back by early season. The coaching staff has never really like Powell, and Crowell has been getting raves from Bowles. Beat guys says he’s even catching a lot of balls in practice - could have some value. Rawls may not even make the team or may now that McGuire is hurt.

they also drafted a scat back type in Trenton Cannon but haven’t heard much on him.

 

[az_prof]

Last year we had the same discussion about Cook vs. Murray and McKinnon. We even said they didn't pay Murray for nothing, but until Cook got hurt that is exactly what they did. 

The Detroit situation is going to stink all year unless there is some injuries. I wouldn't be surprised to see if there was an Abdullah game or some other rb. 

Right on. If a rookie like Cook or this year Chubb are good enough to really stand our from the veteran, they will be given opportunity to take that job.  Generally, I haven't seen average starting RBs like Hyde go someone where else and become better. Despite being a high draft pick and given every opportunity in SF, Hyde in four years had one good year, 2016 and even that was not a great year in terms of total production although he did have a good ypc that year. To me, he looks like a guy who could be relegated to the bench if Chubb is really great.  

 

[Elevencents]

I have started to come around on Crowell and Lynch. I initially didn’t want anything to do with them, and they were never talked about, but now I’m thinking they are simply discounted starters because of the unsexiness of the team. I think the Jets offense hurts Crowell the most but the Jets backs in the recent years have at least been serviceable. Not expecting them to light it up but I’m actually planning on drafting both if they fall to where i think they will. 

 

[bostonfred]

MIN - Cook/Murray

Cook looked really good for a few games, and his workload looked down right sexy. But he didn't last long with that workload, and they have a decent rb2.  I think cook fans may be disappointed by the split. But not enough to even consider Murray as anything but injury insurance/ lottery ticket.

CAR - CMac/CJA

I am a cj Anderson believer, but this is a terrible spot for him.  The two most valuable kinds of touches are receptions and touchdowns, and he's not there first option for either.  It also sounds like they want to increase Mccaffrey's rushing attempts. I don't believe the 25 touches a game nonsense, but it sounds like he's running better and may earn more rushing attempts.  That gives him true stud potential, while his receiving gives him a solid floor.  Coming around on him as a low end rb1.

SF - McKinnon/Breida

McKinnon was a huge bargain at the start of the off season.  He's hugely overrated now.  You have to pay full price for his upside now - if he's anything but the second coming of freeman he will be a bust. That's not good.  There's been some suggestion that breida has outplayed McKinnon so far.  I still think McKinnon is the lead back but breida will get enough touches to be fantasy relevant.  Shanahan has praised his work ethic as much as his performance, and that's big with him.  Expect him to have a real role. 

CHI - Howard/Cohen

Howard in standard, Cohen in ppr, don't bother with the other way around at their adps.

ATL - Freeman/Coleman

Freeman was a perfect back for Shanahan and dropped off when Shanahan left. There are other explanations for the drop off but I'm definitely not as confident in him as I was before.  I have seen nothing to make me believe Coleman will increase his role though. I feel like freeman's adp is a referendum on Sarkisian. 

CIN - Mixon/Bernard

Mixon is the clear starter and they want him to be their feature back. They love gio, I just don't think they trust him to stay healthy with a heavier workload. Should be 65/35 split. Offensive line seems improved.  What remains to be seen is how much Mixon improves over year one.  

PHI - Ajayi/Sproles/Clement etc.

Ajayi should lead the backfield in carries but Clement looks like he'll get a good share plus goal line work.  Sproles is still the and supposedly will have a "real role" on offense.  I could see the eagles being a top 5 rushing team and ajayi still being a fantasy rb2.  

NE - Michel/Burkhead/Hill etc. - looking more like burkhead will start the season as the lead guy. He's got the versatility they want.  Michel can become that, but between the injury, recent fumble, and just not impressing that much, I don't think it will be immediate. 

 

[msudaisy26]

MIN - Cook/Murray

Cook looked really good for a few games, and his workload looked down right sexy. But he didn't last long with that workload, and they have a decent rb2.  I think cook fans may be disappointed by the split. But not enough to even consider Murray as anything but injury insurance/ lottery ticket.

CAR - CMac/CJA

I am a cj Anderson believer, but this is a terrible spot for him.  The two most valuable kinds of touches are receptions and touchdowns, and he's not there first option for either.  It also sounds like they want to increase Mccaffrey's rushing attempts. I don't believe the 25 touches a game nonsense, but it sounds like he's running better and may earn more rushing attempts.  That gives him true stud potential, while his receiving gives him a solid floor.  Coming around on him as a low end rb1.

SF - McKinnon/Breida

McKinnon was a huge bargain at the start of the off season.  He's hugely overrated now.  You have to pay full price for his upside now - if he's anything but the second coming of freeman he will be a bust. That's not good.  There's been some suggestion that breida has outplayed McKinnon so far.  I still think McKinnon is the lead back but breida will get enough touches to be fantasy relevant.  Shanahan has praised his work ethic as much as his performance, and that's big with him.  Expect him to have a real role. 

CHI - Howard/Cohen

Howard in standard, Cohen in ppr, don't bother with the other way around at their adps.

ATL - Freeman/Coleman

Freeman was a perfect back for Shanahan and dropped off when Shanahan left. There are other explanations for the drop off but I'm definitely not as confident in him as I was before.  I have seen nothing to make me believe Coleman will increase his role though. I feel like freeman's adp is a referendum on Sarkisian. 

CIN - Mixon/Bernard

Mixon is the clear starter and they want him to be their feature back. They love gio, I just don't think they trust him to stay healthy with a heavier workload. Should be 65/35 split. Offensive line seems improved.  What remains to be seen is how much Mixon improves over year one.  

PHI - Ajayi/Sproles/Clement etc.

Ajayi should lead the backfield in carries but Clement looks like he'll get a good share plus goal line work.  Sproles is still the and supposedly will have a "real role" on offense.  I could see the eagles being a top 5 rushing team and ajayi still being a fantasy rb2.  

NE - Michel/Burkhead/Hill etc. - looking more like burkhead will start the season as the lead guy. He's got the versatility they want.  Michel can become that, but between the injury, recent fumble, and just not impressing that much, I don't think it will be immediate. 

I don't think it was the workload that hurt Cook. The game he got hurt was against the Lions and I seen that game. It looked like just bad luck, a non contact injury that has happened to a lot of players over the years. Other than this is a really great write up.

 

[bostonfred]

CLE - Hyde/Chubb/Duke 

This is not a three headed backfield.  This is Hyde and Chubb. Duke may play some out of the backfield but he's their slot receiver and he's said that's what he wants.  The real question is what kind of split will hyde and chubb have.  I love chubb long term and he's flashed but he's still making some rookie mistakes. I'll take Chubb as a cheap bench player in ready and hope he pans out. Hyde could be a nice fill in for Ingram owners.  

IND - there's not a single player in this backfield I'd be comfortable starting week one, but they are all decent lottery tickets. If anyone takes the lead role with a healthy luck, they could be that guy that's on 60% of league champions at the end of the year. 

DEN - just listened to an interview with byron Lambert of roster watch and he was at camp.  He believes Booker will get the most touches because he'll be sharing time on all downs while Freeman will only be sharing time on first and second. That's possible. Booker is supposedly looking good again.  And freeman was a third round pick. I'm not going out of my way to get any of them but I am always happy to buy cheap shares of a starting rb and booker is understandably very cheap.  I think i'll pass on freeman at his current redraft price but for dynasty I like him in the mid first.

WAS - Guice is the lead dog here. Can't picture him sharing too much work with perine and fat rob. He will be sharing receiving work which caps his upside a little, but he's ready to start from week 1.

DET - I love Kerryon a lot, I just don't trust them not to use blount and Riddick. For the right price I'm always interested, and he's definitely the cheapest of the big 8 rookies right now, but I'm leery of any back that is going to lose goal line and receiving. 

SEA - Penny is still going to be the guy, but Carson isn't making it easy.  A lot will change in the pre season.  I expect Carson to get first team snaps with Wilson at the start of pre season ecause he can pass block. If penny is pass blocking well he could overtake Carson by week one, otherwise I expect Carson to open the season as starter and then who knows how long it will take. For now, penny's available at an understandable discount and Carson is still fairly cheap insurance. I think the demise of the Seahawks is overstated - teams with elite quarterbacks don't completely suck even when they're rebuilding, and their o line is significantly improved over the start of last year. 

TB - Ronald Jones should be the guy eventually, but I'm starting to believe the barber talk a little. It really comes down to how the bucs view Jones - if they see him as a workhorse, or a change of pace type.  The bucs were really bad at running the ball just year but barber finished a little.  I'm not enamored with the situation nor the uncertainty so I'm more apt to take Barber late than Jones right now.  

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Abstract from a single practice:

Anthony Rodriguez @AnthonyRod33

Royce Freeman gets the first carry of 11-on-11’s, and with the 1’s. #Broncos #TrainingCamp @OrangeBlue760

9:12 AM - Aug 3, 2018

 

[bostonfred]

TEN - I think people are really going to regret misreading this one.  Henry is a budding superstar. He's a workhorse and Lewis is a perfect change of pace. This is the running scheme where Henry excelled in college.  He's going to bre an outside runner not a grind it out inside runner.  He catches the ball very well and they're using him a lot as a receiver in practice. He's going to get a lot more work than people realize. Lewis will have good games, but he's not the guy they're building their running game around.  Everyone's enamored with his two partial seasons in new England where he looked really good - and they should be.  He's a guy who should get the ball.  Just not as much as Henry will. I think people look at this and say big guy needs touchdowns, little guy will get receptions.  And then Lewis fans say, but wait, Lewis was more than just a little guy he carried the load last year. So they feel justified in thinking Lewis is like a better b version of the little guy in the committee cliche sense seem a million times before.  But this is different.  Henry is like a tight end and he's a monster when he gets the ball in space.  And Lewis doesn't have as many receptions as people seem to imagine.  They aren't the normal committee we're all used to. I'd almost prefer Lewis running inside with his elusiveness and Henry running the outside zone stuff.  But when the team is trying to wear defenses down they will use Henry, and he will deliver in this system, and he will get the volume.  Trust me.  Take Henry, pass on Dion. 

BAL - I've been as big a dixon believer as anyone, but the latest injury is just a killer. He's back at practice as of today, but he already had an uphill climb to relevance. That said, I'm still not sold on Collins as a talented running back. I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him as my starter without taking another rb soon thereafter. Just when I was starting to consider him at his old price, it's gone up, so i'll likely own zero shares and be fine with that. 

MIA - drake looked like a stud when he was getting volume.  The problem is he might not get that volume this year. I'm not really looking to own any dolphins - that's traditionally been a good thing not to do. I'm not getting enough of a discount on him to make me draft him.  I've got zero interest in gore and ballage is only a very large flyer in deep leagues - I don't see him having standalone value and I'm not sure he'd take over even if drake got hurt so he's basically worthless unless there are two injuries or he just totally blows everyone away. I'll pass on the whole backfield thanks 

GB - Williams looked good as the guy for 8 games.  He runs pretty well, pass blocks pretty well and catches pretty well. He's not elite, but green bay already has an elite guy in the backfield named Rodgers. They need someone who can keep him upright and do everything pretty well. He's also the unquestioned week one and two starter with Montgomery basically moving into the gadget role.  I don't think Williams gives up that job.  Yes I get it Jones is a better runner. The packers don't need a better runner. They create offense in the passing game.  When they need a spark they might use the better runner. That's the definition of a change of pace back, and that's all Jones is right now. 

NYJ - 

Crowell is the only guy I see emerging as a rb1 here.  I'm not confident he will but if he does he could be valuable. The jets have had surprisingly good rb performances at times and the browns have misused talent plenty of times so I'm buying at a discount if his price stays low. 

OAK - gruden is talking about changing the lead back week to week. Sounds terrible for redraft but could be perfect for best ball.  I'm slightly more interested in Doug martin because gruden backs used to catch a lot of balls, and martin is well suited for that. But I'd never feel confident starting him week 1, so he's like a rb4 at best 

 

[Snorkelson]

My takes- 

Det- I’ll start here as a lions fan. Read that as I probably am overly optimistic but also well informed. Improved line, so there will be a run game this year, mark my words. Kerryon will get the most work. JBC hasn’t called run plays because he wants plays that work. For years I watched us pound the ball into a pile knowing full well we couldn’t run but the coaches felt you had to at least have the threat of the run. It’s been predictable recently, and Kerryon brings versatility to the table. Blount will get some tds and riddick will get some rec (although less than recent years as KJ will take some of that role). KJ will finish as a rb2, bold prediction. 

Min- Cooks is better, but a team with super bowl hopes may use a bit of a comittee approach to keep guys fresh and available. Murray maybe has earned some extra work as well.

Car- I like CJA but CMC is the guy to own. I can’t see CJ not having a role but how much and where? Tough to take CMC in rd 2 for me at this point. 

BAL- Collins. Dixon owner that has held out hope but I think the writing is on the wall. 

GB- Montgomery will be a steal for ppr. Williams will be a steal in both ppr and standard. Jones will have to earn his way out of cop duties or hope for a williams fumble/injury. 

Indy- Seems pretty wide open and the buzz seems to be about a different guy every day. Probably some sort of comittee. 

Cleveland- If you’re going to draft a back here, just take both Chubb and hyde at like the 7/8/9 turn depending on where you draft. Or avoid altogether. 

Sea- Both backs will have some value but siphon from each other. 2 man comittee.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Last year we had the same discussion about Cook vs. Murray and McKinnon. We even said they didn't pay Murray for nothing, but until Cook got hurt that is exactly what they did. 

Right on. If a rookie like Cook or this year Chubb are good enough to really stand our from the veteran, they will be given opportunity to take that job.  Generally, I haven't seen average starting RBs like Hyde go someone where else and become better. Despite being a high draft pick and given every opportunity in SF, Hyde in four years had one good year, 2016 and even that was not a great year in terms of total production although he did have a good ypc that year. To me, he looks like a guy who could be relegated to the bench if Chubb is really great.  

I agree and looking at Hyde's contract, it's not nearly as much as I had thought.  It's actually quite similar to Murray's last year.  And I'm also not sure whether the Browns really intended to draft an RB high.  They had so many picks that they were just looking for whatever value they could get.  So even if they did anticipate Hyde being the main ball carrier when they signed him, it seems like Chubb is the clear value play here.  I like his ceiling better than Hyde.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

ATL - Freeman/Coleman

Freeman was a perfect back for Shanahan and dropped off when Shanahan left. There are other explanations for the drop off but I'm definitely not as confident in him as I was before.  I have seen nothing to make me believe Coleman will increase his role though. I feel like freeman's adp is a referendum on Sarkisian. 

CIN - Mixon/Bernard

Mixon is the clear starter and they want him to be their feature back. They love gio, I just don't think they trust him to stay healthy with a heavier workload. Should be 65/35 split. Offensive line seems improved.  What remains to be seen is how much Mixon improves over year one.  

Re: ATL

Coleman's touches have increased each year from 2015-2017.  Freeman's have decreased each year.  In Coleman's rookie, he kind of seemed like the preference before he got hurt.  Then of course Freeman took off.  I feel like Coleman at RB28 makes a lot more sense as a value play than Freeman at RB11.

Re: CIN

You may be right, though in the last 5 games, Bernard played a big role.  Even in games that Mixon was not hurt.  Or was Mixon nursing an injury for a couple games before sitting out?  Either way, Mixon is probably about properly valued around RB15, but I feel like Bernard is a guy I would like on my roster as RB47.

 

[bostonfred]

Re: ATL

Coleman's touches have increased each year from 2015-2017.  Freeman's have decreased each year.  In Coleman's rookie, he kind of seemed like the preference before he got hurt.  Then of course Freeman took off.  I feel like Coleman at RB28 makes a lot more sense as a value play than Freeman at RB11.

See I'm the opposite.  I want nothing to do with guys like Coleman. He might be a "value" compared with his adp, but in most leagues you don't get points for value.  You want guys you're excited to start each week.  Coleman might be startable but you won't win your league because you had him in your lineup every week unless freeman gets hurt.  

I guess it depends on format though. In daily or best bal Coleman is a lot more useful. Or if you have a deep starting roster.  If you have to start 2 backs and 3 receivers with a couple flex spots a guy like Coleman would be a lot more valuable. Most of my long standing leagues have shorter lineups like 2/3 with a single flex or something so maybe I'm biased towards those.

Otherwise to me Coleman is too expensive to be a handcuff for the Freeman owner, and not quite good enough to be anything more than a bye week starter or maybe depth in case you get a lot of injuries.  He's just a dead spot in the draft 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

See I'm the opposite.  I want nothing to do with guys like Coleman. He might be a "value" compared with his adp, but in most leagues you don't get points for value.  You want guys you're excited to start each week.  Coleman might be startable but you won't win your league because you had him in your lineup every week unless freeman gets hurt.  

I guess it depends on format though. In daily or best bal Coleman is a lot more useful. Or if you have a deep starting roster.  If you have to start 2 backs and 3 receivers with a couple flex spots a guy like Coleman would be a lot more valuable. Most of my long standing leagues have shorter lineups like 2/3 with a single flex or something so maybe I'm biased towards those.

Otherwise to me Coleman is too expensive to be a handcuff for the Freeman owner, and not quite good enough to be anything more than a bye week starter or maybe depth in case you get a lot of injuries.  He's just a dead spot in the draft 

i guess it depends on what you are trying to get.  I am definitely not looking at Coleman as some kind of every week starter.

I look at Freeman at RB11 and think that's his pretty much his ceiling.  I'm not sure how much higher he could go at this point, even with an injury to Coleman.  As you mentioned, the scheme change from Shanahan doesn't seem as good for him.

OTOH, RB28 seems about Coleman's floor barring injury.  It seems clear that ATL wants to use him no matter what.  Then there is the chance that Freeman gets injured and Coleman is getting the lion's share of the work or that his usage pattern is actually a trend and he gets more work.  So I see him as a guy that you could plug in for a week if necessary and be ok with it and have a possibility of rising higher at some point in the season.  I wouldn't suggest handcuffing or thinking of him like a starter, closer to a lottery ticket with a high floor.

I guess if you are looking at RBs going around him and would rather someone like Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson or even Marshawn Lynch because they have a clearer path to being the lead back, then I would listen.  Also, if someone who watches a lot of Falcons believes that his usage last year was more of an aberration, I would also listen to that.

 

[need2know]

TEN - I think people are really going to regret misreading this one.  Henry is a budding superstar. He's a workhorse and Lewis is a perfect change of pace. This is the running scheme where Henry excelled in college.  He's going to bre an outside runner not a grind it out inside runner.  He catches the ball very well and they're using him a lot as a receiver in practice. He's going to get a lot more work than people realize. Lewis will have good games, but he's not the guy they're building their running game around.  Everyone's enamored with his two partial seasons in new England where he looked really good - and they should be.  He's a guy who should get the ball.  Just not as much as Henry will. I think people look at this and say big guy needs touchdowns, little guy will get receptions.  And then Lewis fans say, but wait, Lewis was more than just a little guy he carried the load last year. So they feel justified in thinking Lewis is like a better b version of the little guy in the committee cliche sense seem a million times before.  But this is different.  Henry is like a tight end and he's a monster when he gets the ball in space.  And Lewis doesn't have as many receptions as people seem to imagine.  They aren't the normal committee we're all used to. I'd almost prefer Lewis running inside with his elusiveness and Henry running the outside zone stuff.  But when the team is trying to wear defenses down they will use Henry, and he will deliver in this system, and he will get the volume.  Trust me.  Take Henry, pass on Dion. 

BAL - I've been as big a dixon believer as anyone, but the latest injury is just a killer. He's back at practice as of today, but he already had an uphill climb to relevance. That said, I'm still not sold on Collins as a talented running back. I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him as my starter without taking another rb soon thereafter. Just when I was starting to consider him at his old price, it's gone up, so i'll likely own zero shares and be fine with that. 

MIA - drake looked like a stud when he was getting volume.  The problem is he might not get that volume this year. I'm not really looking to own any dolphins - that's traditionally been a good thing not to do. I'm not getting enough of a discount on him to make me draft him.  I've got zero interest in gore and ballage is only a very large flyer in deep leagues - I don't see him having standalone value and I'm not sure he'd take over even if drake got hurt so he's basically worthless unless there are two injuries or he just totally blows everyone away. I'll pass on the whole backfield thanks 

GB - Williams looked good as the guy for 8 games.  He runs pretty well, pass blocks pretty well and catches pretty well. He's not elite, but green bay already has an elite guy in the backfield named Rodgers. They need someone who can keep him upright and do everything pretty well. He's also the unquestioned week one and two starter with Montgomery basically moving into the gadget role.  I don't think Williams gives up that job.  Yes I get it Jones is a better runner. The packers don't need a better runner. They create offense in the passing game.  When they need a spark they might use the better runner. That's the definition of a change of pace back, and that's all Jones is right now. 

NYJ - 

Crowell is the only guy I see emerging as a rb1 here.  I'm not confident he will but if he does he could be valuable. The jets have had surprisingly good rb performances at times and the browns have misused talent plenty of times so I'm buying at a discount if his price stays low. 

OAK - gruden is talking about changing the lead back week to week. Sounds terrible for redraft but could be perfect for best ball.  I'm slightly more interested in Doug martin because gruden backs used to catch a lot of balls, and martin is well suited for that. But I'd never feel confident starting him week 1, so he's like a rb4 at best 

Where do you think Henry should go in a 12 team ppr redraft?  Second round?

 

[TripItUp]

MIN - Cook is the obvious starter

CAR -  this will be a classic one two punch.

Moving on to situations where the backs are likely going to be fairly complementary and I think a little hard to get a read on any individual's total season value at this point:

SF - McKinnon is overrated and you can expect Breida/Williams to get a health portion of the snaps by midseason.

CHI - classic one two punch

ATL - like last year

CIN - classic one two punch

PHI - committee

NE - committee with some late season breakout appeal for Michel

what else do you got?

 

[bostonfred]

i guess it depends on what you are trying to get.  I am definitely not looking at Coleman as some kind of every week starter.

I look at Freeman at RB11 and think that's his pretty much his ceiling.  I'm not sure how much higher he could go at this point, even with an injury to Coleman.  As you mentioned, the scheme change from Shanahan doesn't seem as good for him.

OTOH, RB28 seems about Coleman's floor barring injury.  It seems clear that ATL wants to use him no matter what.  Then there is the chance that Freeman gets injured and Coleman is getting the lion's share of the work or that his usage pattern is actually a trend and he gets more work.  So I see him as a guy that you could plug in for a week if necessary and be ok with it and have a possibility of rising higher at some point in the season.  I wouldn't suggest handcuffing or thinking of him like a starter, closer to a lottery ticket with a high floor.

I guess if you are looking at RBs going around him and would rather someone like Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson or even Marshawn Lynch because they have a clearer path to being the lead back, then I would listen.  Also, if someone who watches a lot of Falcons believes that his usage last year was more of an aberration, I would also listen to that.

That's mostly how I see it.  I think your first paragraph is good for comparing him with pure handcuffs like spencer ware or bo Scarborough. If you think all 3 would immediately be solid starters if the main guy got hurt, and the main guys are equally likely to get hurt. 

The first obvious tie breaker is how much they score. Coleman is clearly the favorite to score on the top 30 RBs, shi he's the most valuable guy 

The second tire breaker you plugged was their chance of being a quality starter without injury.  You mentioned Ronald Jones as a comparison to Coleman.  Jones could break out this year without a barber injury.  Coleman really can't. 

Which tie breaker is more valuable?   If you pass on Coleman for Jones, you get a chance at elite scoring.  If you take Coleman, you get a slightly higher floor.  I don't think that's a particularly close decision. 

Don't forget that if you take Jones and Coleman,  you might end up starting Jones over Coleman during that bye week.  If you take a bunch of guys like barber, mack, Wilkins, ballage,breida, Clement, Carson, Doug martin and so on, you've got a good chance one of them unexpectedly wins their job.  Coleman is less likely to.  And those guesses can be dropped if they don't work out. You'll never drop Coleman. 

So unless there's a scenario where you'd want to start Coleman - a two flex league or best ball or something similar - Coleman is near the bottom of the list of backup rbs, even though I expect him to outscore 20 guys I'd take ahead of him. 

 

[NYRAGE]

McGuire is hurt but may be back by early season. The coaching staff has never really like Powell, and Crowell has been getting raves from Bowles. Beat guys says he’s even catching a lot of balls in practice - could have some value. Rawls may not even make the team or may now that McGuire is hurt.

they also drafted a scat back type in Trenton Cannon but haven’t heard much on him.

Powell is in his last year of his contract and the coaching staff doesn't appear to be high on him which is a bit odd since he has always performed well when given the opportunity. I heard someone on the radio today say that he asked someone from the coaching staff at the Combine if Powell was going to be the lead back this year and the coach laughed and said no, we'll bring someone in.

Crowell has gotten a ton of praise in camp so far. So has Cannon, but it seems like it will only be certain types of plays where he can get in space. Third and long?

The coaching staff loves McGuire, but he's hurt for a while.

Last year's coaching staff was intent on using a RBBC, so temper any expectations a bit. Crowell should be a decent RB3-4 imo.

 

[bostonfred]

Where do you think Henry should go in a 12 team ppr redraft?  Second round?

No, that's a little high.  I think he could be worth that but you don't want to pay full price for a guy's upside. 

But give me an idea how many rushing attempts you think he'll get. Does 200 sound like a lot?  It's not. If he averages 11 rushes a game plus has two games  of 20 carries in blowouts, that's 194. I think 11 is low, but it's 10-12 carries a game - I don't see the titans having many games where they give Henry 5 carries.  His bad games might be more like 10 carries for 25 yards and no touchdowns.  I think 225 is fairly likely.  That's about 1000 rushing yards.

How many receptions? In two seasons as a backup to Murray he's had 17 and 18. In three starts he had 6 catches.  They've been working on his receiving this off season.  25 to 30 catches is totally reasonable, and i think he could get more. 

Receiving yards?  Henry averages over 10 yards a catch in virtually any sample size. Over 10 in year 1, over 10 in year 2, over 10 in the playoffs, etc.  If he gets 25-30 catches that's around 300 yards.  

How about touchdowns?  Even his detractors think he's good for 8.

Put that together and that's 1250 yards, 25 receptions, 8 touchdowns.  That's better than what Dion Lewis did last year - 1110 yards, 32 receptions,  9 touchdowns. It's low end rb1 numbers and I don't even think that's his ceiling. 

If he's a little lower - 194 carries for 825, 25 catches for 275, 8 touchdowns - those are still rb2 numbers. 

So i think he's a great pick in the 4th, and a good pick in the third, and he can earn back a second round pick.  It would take an injury or an absolute lock on the job by Lewis that doesn't seem to have occurred for him to really bust.

 

[need2know]

No, that's a little high.  I think he could be worth that but you don't want to pay full price for a guy's upside. 

But give me an idea how many rushing attempts you think he'll get. Does 200 sound like a lot?  It's not. If he averages 11 rushes a game plus has two games  of 20 carries in blowouts, that's 194. I think 11 is low, but it's 10-12 carries a game - I don't see the titans having many games where they give Henry 5 carries.  His bad games might be more like 10 carries for 25 yards and no touchdowns.  I think 225 is fairly likely.  That's about 1000 rushing yards.

How many receptions? In two seasons as a backup to Murray he's had 17 and 18. In three starts he had 6 catches.  They've been working on his receiving this off season.  25 to 30 catches is totally reasonable, and i think he could get more. 

Receiving yards?  Henry averages over 10 yards a catch in virtually any sample size. Over 10 in year 1, over 10 in year 2, over 10 in the playoffs, etc.  If he gets 25-30 catches that's around 300 yards.  

How about touchdowns?  Even his detractors think he's good for 8.

Put that together and that's 1250 yards, 25 receptions, 8 touchdowns.  That's better than what Dion Lewis did last year - 1110 yards, 32 receptions,  9 touchdowns. It's low end rb1 numbers and I don't even think that's his ceiling. 

If he's a little lower - 194 carries for 825, 25 catches for 275, 8 touchdowns - those are still rb2 numbers. 

So i think he's a great pick in the 4th, and a good pick in the third, and he can earn back a second round pick.  It would take an injury or an absolute lock on the job by Lewis that doesn't seem to have occurred for him to really bust.

I may be wrong but Lewis has never had a huge amount of touches in a season for various reasons.  I agree with you that Henry is a great value and an ideal rb2 with rb1 upside

 

[bostonfred]

I may be wrong but Lewis has never had a huge amount of touches in a season for various reasons.  I agree with you that Henry is a great value and an ideal rb2 with rb1 upside

You're correct about dion.

Last year he had 180 rushes. His previous high water mark was 64. In fact his previous career total was 149. 

Last year he had 32 receptions.  His previous high was 36. 

The idea that dion is some 60 catch receiving back is wayoverstated. So is the idea that he'll somehow command 200 rushes when he's never done it before.  

The titans had 443 rushing attempts as a team last year, and 476 the year before.  There's room for Henry to get 225 plus carries and Dion, Mariota and the other backs  to still get some. Dion could get 150 carries and 35 receptions - both nearly career highs - and still have room for Henry to be a stud rb1. 

 

[Conan Troutman]

I have started to come around on Crowell and Lynch. I initially didn’t want anything to do with them, and they were never talked about, but now I’m thinking they are simply discounted starters because of the unsexiness of the team. I think the Jets offense hurts Crowell the most but the Jets backs in the recent years have at least been serviceable. Not expecting them to light it up but I’m actually planning on drafting both if they fall to where i think they will. 

Problem is their lack of upside, both season long and weekly. I think both should get around 800-900 yards on the ground and a little bit in the passing game to go along with half a dozen TDs or so. Pretty steady RB3s, but the same arguments against Coleman apply - they're just not very exciting weekly options, more reliable, high end backups that will have a couple of nice games mostly on your bench. They're great if you need that kind of player after a receiver heavy start for instance, but generally I'm more interested in upside after filling my starter spots.