Think Sonny's touch share pretty much the same although Devlin now can't vulture him.
Rex grabs White's touches and D. Harris probably active for a few carries.
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RB Sony Michel (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Rex grabs White's touches and D. Harris probably active for a few carries.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Never again. Banished to the bench.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It makes perfect sense. If you’ve watched the NE games it’s pretty clear it’s not his fault. He gets hit some plays one step after getting the handoff. Last year, NE used Gronk and Allen as jumbo TE’s and Devlin as a FB. That’s 8 guys blocking.
They have no healthy TE’s, Devlin has been hurt, and the OL is a patchwork quilt at the moment. That’s 5 guys blocking. Until those three things change, Michel is going to go nowhere fast.
irish eyes
Footballguy
He is droppable at this point. I cant even find anyone who wants him.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Off season knee scope has to be affecting him more than Pats let on.
shadyridr
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
This was my 2.11 over a few names I don't even want to type.
Oof. Needless to say, I'm 1-2 and will be looking at 1-3 next week.
Bad draft, bad idea.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I started him yesterday because theory’s that he has a shot at 2 TDS and maybe 3 in any Pats blowout. Brady did throw to him at the goal line but it was knocked down. BB yanked him next play and Rex went in instead.
I do think Devlin is a damn good FB and his loss clips the run game in general.
I do think Devlin is a damn good FB and his loss clips the run game in general.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As already discussed, NE OL has injury issues, they have no TEs, and their FB is on IR.
With Michel in the game, teams have been run blitzing a lot since he does not catch the ball. The Pats have used Michel as a sacrificial lamb, as they have continued to run him with little payoff RUNNING the ball. HOWEVER, they have dropped his run rate from 85% to 60% when he is in the game. Instead, they have been running play action which has been LETHAL.
They reviewed some of the big plays NE has had and Dorsett is the primary beneficiary. When Michel is in the game, Dorsett has been getting a free run off the line and very weak coverage.
If we have learned anything over the years, it’s that BB doesn’t care about your fantasy team. So while we think OMG what’s wrong with Michel!, BB is thinking the offense has been racking a ton of big plays on offense.
As for the question on why Burkhead is doing so much better, he is getting carries against nickel coverage with only 5 or 6 guys in the box. He also is a chess piece that has lined up out wide, in the slot, in the backfield, and has gone in motion. He poses matchup problems for defenses as they can’t key in on the play call before the ball is snapped. His runs typically go much better because there are fewer defenders, there are smaller players supporting the line, and when the ball is snapped they are initially dropping into coverage and start going backwards. With Michel, the defense is all surging forward as soon as the ball is snapped.
That’s the X’s and O’s explanation of what is going on. If you believe Michel actually worked a lot in training camp on receiving, NE will start using him more as a receiver. But BB has excelled at adding new looks as the season goes on. If they are winning by 20 points a game, I would expect he won’t make a ton of changes to the offense until opponents start scheming to stop what has been effective so far.
shadyridr
Footballguy
So youre saying one guys causes matchup problems and the other guy doesn't. Isnt that an indictment on Michel even moreso?
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Damien Harris seems like the perfect solution. He has rushing and receiving skills. Burkhead isn't a lead back. Belichick has given both Burkhead and Bolden games as lead back. It's probably a reward for hard work. But it never lasts.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You are thinking like a fantasy football owner not an NFL coach. If NE gets 1 yard rushing, 2 yards rushing, and then a 40 yard passing TD, that is way better than three 5 yard runs. Plays don't always have to do much to set up other plays. That's what they have been doing (and winning their games going away).
I switched over to the other sports talk radio station and they posed the same question . . . what's wrong with the Patriots running game? To layer on to what I just posted, NE's offensive tackles last year were oversized and athletic. They also had Gronk and Allen and often faced smaller defenders. So at the end of the season last year, they basically decided to just push people around to get to the SB. They don't have the personnel to do that this year.
This time around, their two replacement tackles are smaller and slower. They have been using Izzo at TE, who has shown he is too small and not strong enough to move people around. Gronk was essentially an All Pro blocker last year. Also, their 3 replacement lineman are not strong enough, big enough, or fast enough to run the same running plays they ran last year. So they are having to figure out what running plays they can use in running situation that will work on the schemes I already mentioned. The running game will improve some with Cannon getting healthier, Watson coming back in another week, and when Wynn gets back on the field in November.
In the meantime, McDaniels keeps trying different things to figure out what works and what does, and to scheme what this version of the team is best at. Remember that most years the Patriots typically get off to slow starts and the running attack falls into that category of a work in progress.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Harris was also brought up, and the narrative that he is a do it all back was partly overstated. He had 52 receptions in 54 games at Alabama. In the discussion on the radio, while he showed some signs of being able to catch the ball in the preseason, they mentioned it was against defenders that aren't even in the league and were training camp bodies.
He hasn't played offensively so far, and who knows why. They speculated that it had to do with Michel / Burkhead / White / Bolden being active so they don't need him. But it could be he hasn't been great at blitz pick up or grasping the system / playbook. To be clear, no one is saying he has those issues, but those are things that could be contributing factors. For now, it seems like he is little more than a depth piece that they have around in case they need him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Burkhead has had 10 or more carries 7 times in 26 games played with NE. I don't see a situation in NE short of multiple injuries to other backs where Burkhead becomes their primary runner. He has had 4 games in that time with 5 receptions. So he probably won't be a target monster as a receiver either. And IMO he carries a higher injury risk than most backs. IMO, NE likes him as a jack of all trades back with limited usage. Certainly they could change how they use him, but they haven't given him a much bigger workload up until this point. He may have more value as a receiving back if Edelman / Gordon / Dorsett / White were out. His fantasy value has been pretty TD dependent (13 TD's in those 27 games). Certainly if he keeps getting a dozen touches and gets in the end zone he would make for a decent fantasy flex play, maybe even a RB2 play.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Burkhead and Bolden are important special teams players. White is the passing back. They aren't going to have 5 running backs active to it's either Harris or Michel. If Harris overtakes Michel, Michel will not be active.
College running backs aren't usually used much as receivers. This is especially true in big time programs where teams can run the ball dominantly. Why pass the ball when you can hand it off and your running back will get 5-7 yards. Only 1 Alabama running back has had 30 receptions in the last 20 years. Mark Ingram had 32 receptions in 2009. Ingram also had 271 carries. Since Harris only had 150 carries last year, his 22 receptions would actually be higher usage as a receiver than Ingram on a per snap basis.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As a comparison, Michel had 64 catches in his time at Georgia and the Pats appear frightened to try to throw him the ball. Unless Michel gets hurt, I doubt they would have Harris active over Michel.IMO, if Harris were killing it in practice he would have been active each week and contributing on offense. With White out this past week, Harris was active for the first time and only played special teams. Remember, Michel missed a lot of time after his surgery, so Harris had even more opportunity to shine with Michel on the sidelines. I wouldn't say that NE is totally pot committed on Michel but I think it's probably close. If Michel were out, I think it would be a full bore RBBC with White, Burkhead, Harris, and Bolden all in the mix.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Belichick is never pot committed. Belichick generally hasn't used a RBBC. Harris could become lead back at any time and there will likely be no forewarning. Burkhead and Bolden are not lead back material and Sony will not be lead back much longer if he continues to average 2.4 ypc.
I remember Michel being a very effective receiver at Georgia. Belichick does him a great injustice by never using him in the passing game. "#26 is in. It's a run. ". No wonder his ypc is low.
ahartig
Footballguy
This times 1,000. I owned Sony last year too and watching the games was very frustrating at times. I was pretty high in Sony again this year due to the hype that he was gonna start catching balls, so far only one target through three games. Ridiculous.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
maybe it's not sony michel as much as it is a poor run blocking offensive line,or, more than likely , McDaniels making opposing teams see their new look pass attack on film, so defenses over-commit to stopping it, and the Michel runs wild in later weeks.seems to be that they've obnoxiously tried to show the NFL that 'reports of our pass attack demise without Gronk are greatly exaggerated'. and if the first 4 weeks of any Pats season going back the past 10 years or so, they seem to get things figured out by week 5. they now have the pass game sorted it, I would expect to start seeing heavy doses of Michel within a couple weeks.
rockaction
Footballguy
I can't believe I signed up for this rotating committee in Rd. Two. The situation, as always, remains the same. NE feature backs are high risk/low reward guys, and that's not a good combination.
They're more predictable than people think, but they're very difficult to start on a FF team. Shanahan is a dirty term in the fantasy community, Belicheck should be akin to Yahweh.
They're more predictable than people think, but they're very difficult to start on a FF team. Shanahan is a dirty term in the fantasy community, Belicheck should be akin to Yahweh.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB doesn’t care about your fantasy team. And shame on you for not understanding what you were getting Into. At best Michel was a TD dependent two down back that doesn’t catch passes. We knew they had a lot of RBs and no TEs. None of that suggests Michel should have been a fantasy second round pick. That’s on on. Yes, given all that, Michel has been a disappointment but he still has competition for touches and won’t catch passes.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hey now, I went by consensus rankings and BPA at the back end of the second. Okay, I bypassed a few -- let's not lie. He was RB15 about everywhere. But I was also relying on reports from within the organization that this year would see a heavy reliance on Michel. And those weren't wrong. He's gotten his work but to no avail, and BB is gonna run the plays that work. As for the line -- the line was fine going into the year -- we knew Watson was suspended, but didn't know about Develin, Winn, Andrews, and Cannon. We drafted before that. Shame on me? Shame on injuries and the lack of even a backup TE that can block (which I just assumed could be found on a lot of D-1 collegiate practice fields), I say.
And as for the aside, I fully know Belichick doesn't care about our fantasy teams. He cares about Ws. I respect that. I know what's what in the world. These are all individualized prop bets aggregated and summed, really. I'm well aware.
Just would be nice to be able to start this guy, and I think I would, but for his ineffectiveness, really.
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oddsbodkins
Footballguy
6th round keeper for me and I still feel bamboozled.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I think we've seen a pretty effective demonstration of how much Michel depended on Develin. Maybe Scar can work wonders, but I'm not counting on much from Sony until and unless the fullback promoted from practice squad demonstrates an ability to do his job.
rockaction
Footballguy
He was RB15 in the rankings for my league when we drafted per FBG customized cheat sheet. 4for4 and others like PFF had him around that range for RBs. I drafted him about 12th or 13th. I go RB heavy in this league, as my cheat sheet would have you know, because it's important. This is not a 3WR league nor PPR.
AND THE WEBSITE HERE STILL HAS HIM AT RB14 overall at 29th overall in the top 300, non-PPR, according to Dodds.
Did I reach? Yes, but not really.
Edit: The last time that was updated was September 1, which is especially important -- you get the picture -- because he was going that high around the time of our draft.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Wow, everyone is scraping the bottom with those guys, huh? Corey Davis is good, he's just in a terrible situtation.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Agreed. Most sites still have him in the RB 15-20 range ROS... closer to 15 in standard, closer to 20 in PPR. He has simply under-performed so far and looked bad doing it.
Those that say this is BB being BB based on his history w/ RBs are just full of it. As soon as Michel was healthy last season he started carrying the load on a weekly basis. He got nicked up up mid season and dropped off, but came back down the stretch and got right back to that 15-20 carries/game range. Strong play-off performance as well. Started out the same in 2019 as far as touches, but looks like a totally different back this season.
Now if some were expecting 20-30 carries/game based on script... then I would agree expectations were too high.
Let's see how it all unfolds when the bullets start flying. The Pats have yet to be challenged... just playing out scrimmages so far in 2019.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Michel averaged 16 carries and less than half a reception a game last year, when he ranked 23rd in ppg among RB's. NE really didn't make up for the loss of Gronk, Allen, and OT Brown in the off season. They had Wynn coming off a season long injury to take over at LT. Maybe people's eyes lit up after seeing Michel score 6 TD's in 3 playoff games. But NE still had White (who ranked higher than Michel last year in any format), Burkhead, and they drafted another RB.
If I still worked at FBG, Michel would have been way down in my preseason rankings compared to others. I provided that opinion in the Shark Pool, but I guess that apparently was a minority opinion. I think I projected him at 250 carries and around a 4.0 ypc for 1000/8 with no real receiving numbers to speak of. I didn't really pay attention . . . what were people expecting / projecting him at to be ranked as the 15th RB?
If I still worked at FBG, Michel would have been way down in my preseason rankings compared to others. I provided that opinion in the Shark Pool, but I guess that apparently was a minority opinion. I think I projected him at 250 carries and around a 4.0 ypc for 1000/8 with no real receiving numbers to speak of. I didn't really pay attention . . . what were people expecting / projecting him at to be ranked as the 15th RB?
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Blount only had so many carries that season because Lewis got hurt. And the crazy number of TD's Blount scored that year was just that . . . a crazy number. This season, NE already had Michel, White, and Burkhead and then brought back Bolden and drafted Harris. Michel had knee problems in college, knee problems in the preseason last year, and knee problems in camp this year. That should have been enough for people to take pause . . . but apparently not.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Not sure what "people" were expecting, but I was expecting 17-18 touches/game and a better than average shot at scoring every week. I didn't feel like averaging a TD/game would be out of the question. IMO his TD potential is what drove his ranking (still does).
It's all fine. We have this under/over performance across the board most every year. Long way to go yet.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
He’s riding the pine for me until further notice. Feel comfortable starting him in your lineups as he will invariably punch two in this weekend.
rockaction
Footballguy
Heh. I don't want to make this too much about my team or anything. I did have pause, just decided the risk was worth it. I could have risked Henry's usage and effectiveness in that range, or Tevin Coleman's inevitable RBBC with Breida (which I knew from experience), or Fournette, and I went with Michel. I'm not really lamenting too greatly. I knew the risk. I know the players and their drawbacks. It was a mere vent up there. But que sera sera. He might make a nice little comeback and rush for significant yards and be a wonderfully TD-dependent RB2 like at the end of the year and the playoffs last year. Who knows?
Back to Michel.
shadrap
Footballguy
Based on the playoffs & Super Bowl it appeared that NE was going to be a running team & play defense. That's why Tom Brady was about the 16th ranked QB-maybe worse- in preseason ratings. So far Brady is what, top 3?? Anyway I've got Michel in one league(PPR) and so far has not worked out at all. We miss in fantasy more than we hit-this appears to be a pretty big miss. You were right on this one, the vast majority was wrong. [shrug]
rockaction
Footballguy
I can honestly and non-obsequieously say that if I'd have read that, I probably would have been given a whole lot of pause. You do indeed know the Pats. I do too, to an extent, and I had visions of Dillon (well, Dillon-lite).
