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RB Sony Michel (3 Viewers)

Anarchy99 said:
I have never figured out why people get agita over the NE backfield. It hardly ever is a mystery. One guy is an early down ball carrier. One guy is a third down COP receiver. And one guy gets a series once or twice a game. Once in a while they go pass happy and once in a while they have to go off game script. But people should already know all this. 
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It's not that one doesn't know, it's that one has to set the lineups beforehand; therefore, if the script gets flipped, your week gets ripped to shreds. Sony was averaging nineteen carries or touches a game the last five games. This one was difficult to predict in all senses because you didn't know if Baltimore would be any different than NE's past opponent.

It's not agita. Most projections had Sony as at least FLEX if not RB2 this week based on his workload and touchdowns. They were completely wrong, and they weren't wrong because of any misjudging of talent endemic to team or oppositional response. It was pure gameflow and usage. It's of a different variety than another team selling out to stop the run or rolling coverage than because of gameplanning. At least talent has a chance in that case. He wasn't even on the field.

 
rockaction said:
It's not that one doesn't know, it's that one has to set the lineups beforehand; therefore, if the script gets flipped, your week gets ripped to shreds. Sony was averaging nineteen carries or touches a game the last five games. This one was difficult to predict in all senses because you didn't know if Baltimore would be any different than NE's past opponent.

It's not agita. Most projections had Sony as at least FLEX if not RB2 this week based on his workload and touchdowns. They were completely wrong, and they weren't wrong because of any misjudging of talent endemic to team or oppositional response. It was pure gameflow and usage. It's of a different variety than another team selling out to stop the run or rolling coverage than because of gameplanning. At least talent has a chance in that case. He wasn't even on the field.
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I also think Bill and Brady are fickle.  When Sony ran what appeared to be the wrong route, Brady was visibly annoyed.  I said to myself, "that's the last time I'm going to see his number called tonight".  And it effectively was.  You can't project that kind of ####, but it seems to happen often.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
Michel is ranked RB18 in 0 PPR leagues and RB26 in PPR leagues. People that took him PPR leagues after having a season with only 7 receptions could not have expected the universe, no matter where they drafted him. In MFL 0 ppr leagues, Michel had an ADP of RB21. Sure, he hasn't been great and hasn't looked great, but there are other players people should be griping over besides Michel.
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He had a three touchdown game (congrats if you survived the 7 point games prior and even had him in your lineup for that one).   He was fortunate enough to get the ball three times by the goal line in a game that he averaged 2.2 yards per carry.  Of course that's going to skew the numbers and make him RB18. He's more like RB35 without that outlier game.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Michel has played 25 games for NE and had double digit carries in 22 of them and 15 or more in 18 of them.
Burkhead has played 29 games for NE and had double digit carries in 7 of them and 15 or more in one of them (a game where Michel was out).

The games Michel doesn't get the ball are when the Pats go pass crazy or get way behind. How often is NE going to get behind 17-0?
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Burkhead doesn't have to get 15+ carries to impact Michel.  Michel's value is so tenuous and tied to touches that even a small impact on touches really hurts him.

Besides that, what happened a year ago may as well be a decade ago in fantasy football, especially when we factor Sony's knee into things.  Obviously we could post stats about Todd Gurley's workload in his time with the Rams, but it wouldn't have much impact on a discussion of what his workload is right now with the Rams.

So Sony has only had single digit carries 3 times in 25 games with NE.  Surely it is worth noting that 2 of those 3 times were this year and occurred within his last 3 games played with Burkhead.

Sony has averaged 6.8 fantasy PPG this year in games where Burkhead has played, which is RB49 in those games.

Sony was already susceptible to complete duds on weeks where NE decided to go pass happy or where the game script was not ideal.  Now he is equally susceptible to putting up a dud even when the game script is perfect and NE wants to run the ball, as he did in week 3 even in a blowout win against the Jets where Burkhead still outtouched him 2-1.

I'm sure he will still have his games where he gets a ton of touches and scores a few TDs, but the percentage of those games is even lower now, and as someone above mentioned most of his owners will probably have him on their bench when those games happen, only to chase those points into a total dud the following week.

 
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Stick a fork in him.... NE O-Line looks nothing like last years when it came to run blocking.. hes not creative to make his own yards without huge holes being open for him

 
Sony Michel totaled 33 yards on 10 carries while absorbing two catches for 11 yards on four targets Sunday in the Patriots’ Week 11 win over the Eagles.

It wasn't a banner afternoon for Michel nor were we expecting it to be. The Eagles have been among the toughest teams to run on this year (they entered Sunday averaging the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game) and that held true once again as Philadelphia's potent front stymied the second-year back at every turn. A one-dimensional plodder who rarely factors in the passing game, Michel has now gone three games without a touchdown. He'll look to get back on track when the Cowboys visit in Week 12.

Nov 17, 2019, 8:10 PM ET
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After today, Michel has had games with 14, 11, 34, 30, and 44 YFS.  Three more "just ok" days of 83, 63 and 74 yards.  Over 100 yards twice.

Curious what tune "it's just one game" guy is whistling now.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Burkhead doesn't have to get 15+ carries to impact Michel.  Michel's value is so tenuous and tied to touches that even a small impact on touches really hurts him.

Besides that, what happened a year ago may as well be a decade ago in fantasy football, especially when we factor Sony's knee into things.  Obviously we could post stats about Todd Gurley's workload in his time with the Rams, but it wouldn't have much impact on a discussion of what his workload is right now with the Rams.

So Sony has only had single digit carries 3 times in 25 games with NE.  Surely it is worth noting that 2 of those 3 times were this year and occurred within his last 3 games played with Burkhead.

Sony has averaged 6.8 fantasy PPG this year in games where Burkhead has played, which is RB49 in those games.

Sony was already susceptible to complete duds on weeks where NE decided to go pass happy or where the game script was not ideal.  Now he is equally susceptible to putting up a dud even when the game script is perfect and NE wants to run the ball, as he did in week 3 even in a blowout win against the Jets where Burkhead still outtouched him 2-1.

I'm sure he will still have his games where he gets a ton of touches and scores a few TDs, but the percentage of those games is even lower now, and as someone above mentioned most of his owners will probably have him on their bench when those games happen, only to chase those points into a total dud the following week.
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Now down to 6.4 fantasy PPG in games where Burkhead plays.

He'll likely have another big game this year, but most won't have him in their lineups anymore when it happens.

 
I don't know why Harris keeps being inactive - definitely not a good look.  But I think his day has got to be coming before the season is out

 
Only 2 of his games were over 15 fantasy points this season. 

It seems the outlier isnt 1 bad game, rather 2 good games. 

He is currently rb32 in the realm of backup rb Jamal Williams, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Duke Johnson

 
Sony Michel rushed 20 times for 85 yards in the Patriots' Week 12 win over the Cowboys.

Michel was rolling early, actually breaking tackles and doing more than just falling forward after picking up whatever was blocked for him. Still, the Patriots didn’t consistently commit to #Establish It, and Michel continued to lose plenty of snaps to James White and Rex Burkhead alike. Michel has multi-touchdown upside whenever the Patriots find themselves as massive home favorites, but he’s otherwise turned into a boom-or-bust RB3 in this bottom-10 offense in yards per play. He’s a risky play in Week 13 against the Texans.
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Sony Michel rushed 10 times for 45 yards in Week 13 against the Texans.

Michel got off to a fast start but faded with the Patriots playing behind in the second half. His 4.5 YPC was good to see after averaging under 4.0 YPC through the first 12 games. Michel has been highly inconsistent this year and hasn’t scored since his three touchdown blowup in Week 7. He’ll be a gameflow-dependent RB2 for a potential shootout with the Chiefs in Week 14.
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RushHour said:
Gotta wonder why they bothered drafting him with a first round pick
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It may have been a luxury pick at the time. Considering he was a big part of their Super Bowl run last year, I doubt the team sees it as a wasted pick.

A year later, it may be very well the case that he hasn't been the well-rounded RB they expected, much like the 1st round pick they used on Laurence Maroney several years back. 

 
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zamboni said:
It may have been a luxury pick at the time. Considering he was a big part of their Super Bowl run last year, I doubt the team sees it as a wasted pick.

A year later, it may be very well the case that he hasn't been the well-rounded RB they expected, much like the 1st round pick they used on Laurence Maroney several years back. 
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Yeah, maybe things would be different if he hadn't crashed and burned so bad in the passing game.

 
zed2283 said:
Yeah, maybe things would be different if he hadn't crashed and burned so bad in the passing game.
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It looked like he was ready to take that "next step" at the end of last year, but in my brief exposure to him this season he's had some ugly drops.

He's had 9 receptions in 12 games.  In this offense.  Nobody thought he was going to be James White, but I don't think anyone saw those numbers coming.

 
Victim of game scripts....the Pats are struggling on offense....if they were getting up by comfortable margins like they used to, Sony would be getting much more love.

 
Manster said:
Victim of game scripts....the Pats are struggling on offense....if they were getting up by comfortable margins like they used to, Sony would be getting much more love.
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Agreed, but that tendency graphic they threw up on the screen last night regarding percent passing when White's in the game vs Michel has to bother BB. Nobody wants to be any kind of predictable from a personnel standpoint.

Right now the Patriots are looking about as easy to defend as I can remember... double Edelman, spy White, and patiently sack the Brady. That Bills game could be very interesting. Hard to see their offense clicking to the point where Michel plays a huge role like he did in 2018.

 
FGITLOTR said:
Harris is going to get his shot to be the guy in 2020. 
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zamboni said:
I think so, too. It’s hardly all on Sony, but have to think that Belichick will want to shake up the offense with Brady yet another year older.
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There's always the chance the pats draft a rb in the first three rounds.  Lots of good ones coming out and nobody knows how to pick up more picks like BB.

I'd love Harris to be the guy though as I got him in the 2nd this offseason.

 
Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  

 
unckeyherb said:
Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  
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He's probably bound to have one of those games at some point, but we've been waiting all year for it and can't imagine risking it one more week in the playoffs. As above, I would prefer James White because his touches can be more predictable.

 
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unckeyherb said:
Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  
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I'm starting him because I have no other choice (David Johnson, Burkhead, and T.Mongomery are the only others I have left).

 
Feels like he's gonna get fed, but the damn pats are so hard to predict.....between him and Matttison for me.  Leaning Mattison, but I'm coming around on Michel with this matchup

 
Sony Michel cashed in his chips with eight yards on five carries to go with one catch for one yard on one target Sunday in New England’s Week 14 loss to the Chiefs.

The one-dimensional Michel has turned into something of a weekly punch line here at Rotoworld and Sunday's clunker against Kansas City, who he dominated in last year's playoffs, did little to change the narrative. With New England playing from behind most of the afternoon, Michel spent much of Week 14 as a spectator while receiving back James White drove the ship, just as he did under similar circumstances a week ago in Houston. The 2018 first-rounder has managed to stay healthy, something he couldn't do last year, though his early-season relevance has largely faded as the goal-line touchdowns he was consuming for breakfast, lunch and dinner have suddenly disappeared from his diet. As ugly as it's been for Michel recently, the slumping sophomore should have a good chance of finding the end zone, a patch of gridiron real estate he hasn't visited since Week 7, next week when the Pats roll into Cincinnati.

Dec 8, 2019, 8:12 PM ET
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Looks horrendous. A situation to 100% avoid. Was probably at his sell high point prior to the regular season 

I wonder if hot sauce guy has changed his tune on michel

 
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RBM said:
Man how bad must Damien Harris look in practice...
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Maybe or perhaps it’s just Bill’s reluctance to play rookies much. Michel himself only started getting playing time last year when he was the last man standing.

 
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Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.

 
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Don Hutson said:
Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.
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I wish I hadn't invested in him as much as I did.  I've sold him for a pretty good return in a couple of leagues and look to dump him in the off-season, even for a 2nd rd rookie pick if I can't do any better.  Taking a loss be damned.  At least this draft is deep.

 
Don Hutson said:
Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.
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Last week was against the second worst run defense in the league and an offense that can kill you.  Michel ate a bag of #####.  He is unstartable.

 
unckeyherb said:
Last week was against the second worst run defense in the league and an offense that can kill you.  Michel ate a bag of #####.  He is unstartable.
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I'm starting to get to the point where I think it's a bad idea starting any RB consistently from certain teams, under their current coaches.   Obviously that can change in the future.

 
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