wgoldsph
Footballguy
He got the opportunity all last year and was terrible. Has the knees of a 90 year old.
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RB Sony Michel (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
How many 90 year olds average 3.7 ypc?
also 7 TDs. Had a 3 TD game. Not a lot of 90 year olds have 3-TD games.
Look, I get it. we’ve been at the point where the negative hype outpaces reality by a significant margin. A lot of folks have likely been burned by Sony. The preseason love he was getting was off the charts & everyone praised how *amazing* he looked coming off 2018 when he averaged 4.5 YPC & appeared to be ascending to a semi-feature role.
then everyone got Belichick‘d. It happens.
I'm just saying if you can get him on the cheap there’s a chance that he gives you better than average return on the investment.
Or hey, I dunno, maybe we should all always underrate the players people don’t like and overrate the players that people like so no one ever gets a value on anyone. I guess that’s an option too. Not necessarily a winning option, but an option.
I’m hardly being a Pollyanna about the dude with the stated expectations above. If I didn’t have him, I’d maybe see about getting him on the cheap as a depth player.
And who knows - if White goes down, or Harris or both, maybe you get a bargain.
hard to say how NE is gonna play this year but it’s probably safe to say they’ll be running a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep! That’s likely the case. Don’t see anyone arguing otherwise for 7,362 pages. Safe money bets that way.
I'm a gambler. I like getting 3:1 on an underdog bet. And if (a huge if) their QB surprises, and IF a RB not named Michele goes down, he could be worth more than you pay for him.
I'm not even saying he’ll be a stud if given the opportunity. I’m saying he could be consistently average. Which is better than nothing on a BYE week, at what’s likely a rock bottom price.
whats his likely ADP I’m redraft, 14th round or later?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - in dynasty you could probably get him for a half of a ham sandwich. Not even with fancy mustard, just that yellow crap.
Redraft I take him after the 11th-12th if he’s sitting there. Dynasty I’m a hold since I got him for free & he’s not gonna be worth anything in trade.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Every player has a value.
i never said he’d be “valuable”. I said folks might get more return on their investment.
It baffles me why THIS running back elicits such strong emotion in FF managers.
anyone says anything positive & you’re characterized as a gushing fanboy.
I never said to take him in 2018 or 2019 & similarly was never burned by him.
To me he’s got 2 legs & something resembling a job. He has value.
it just seems like a reasonably cheap gamble to find out what that value is.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
lol - it was right after his 3 TD game that he was a toss-in on a trade. So even his “sell-high” was trash. Maybe he had big time value right before the start of last season when everyone was raving about his preseason usage/performance.
yep. He’s not a drop.
but I do think you could get him on the super cheap as part of a package deal, or maybe for a draft pick
For me he’s just a lottery ticket in the event of
1. a breakout
2. injury-forced volume play
the latter more likely than the former. He’s still young enough, he could refine his style, learn where his blocks are, get more familiar with the offense.
more likely someone gets hurt & he gets to that 12-15 carry / 2-3 reception range that would make him interesting as a flex or BYE week starter.
but the most likely scenario is that he’s as you described: a hold your nose play who might help you but probably won’t.
i’ve had a couple minor inquiries but as you said - I’d rather hold & see if he can string together a couple decent games so I can turn a profit on him.
jm192
Footballguy
I agree with @Hot Sauce Guy that everyone has a value.
I was sky high on Michel last year and thought he'd be a league winner. Obviously took some of those picks on the chin. I don't have any dynasty shares, and I'm not terribly eager to buy.
In redraft though...
In general, if everyone agrees they should avoid him--he starts to become a value play. Last year he had 259 touches and 1,006 total yards. In the 9th or 10th round, I like the volume. Is he going to finish as an RB1? Absolutely not. RB2? I doubt it, but it's in the realm of possibilities. Can he outproduce an ADP of 9th or 10th round with 250 touches? Sure.
I was sky high on Michel last year and thought he'd be a league winner. Obviously took some of those picks on the chin. I don't have any dynasty shares, and I'm not terribly eager to buy.
In redraft though...
In general, if everyone agrees they should avoid him--he starts to become a value play. Last year he had 259 touches and 1,006 total yards. In the 9th or 10th round, I like the volume. Is he going to finish as an RB1? Absolutely not. RB2? I doubt it, but it's in the realm of possibilities. Can he outproduce an ADP of 9th or 10th round with 250 touches? Sure.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly this. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter what any of us thinks of Michele.
the only thing that matters is what Bill Belichick thinks of Michele. And if he believes he can run him out there with 250+ touches and get results, then he has a job.
and any running back with a job has fantasy value.
headed into 2020 dynasty I’ve got 1 lock & loaded RB, and studs everywhere else. I need to find a RB2 starter week to week among a group of Singletary, RoJo, Michele, Ingram & Duke.
”plug & pray”.
Michele fits that mold. Mostly I’m just holding to see if his valued bumps from a good stretch so I can sell.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Michel pretty much is what he is at this point . . . an early down back that doesn't really catch passes playing in an offense that has had limited goal line opportunities. Fantasy wise, he's a depth guy that could help, but thankfully people have come to realize his performance in the last deep NE playoff run was the aberration and not the norm. Combining all regular season and playoff games, he's averaged 16.4 carries, 67.9 rushing yards. 4.14 ypc, 0.58 TD, 0.67 receptions, 4.9 receiving yards, and 0 receiving TD per game. Over a full 16 game season, that would project to 262-1086-9 rushing and 11-78-0 receiving.
Given the new reality in New England, the question becomes how that line will hold up given the QB change and the perceived atrociousness of the Patriots offense. The more someone believes in the offense, the more someone should believe in Michel being at least palatable. I happen to think the NE offense will end up being slightly better than last year for a number of reasons:
- Stidham gives the Pats a more mobile running back and opens up plays in the playbook that they couldn't run with Brady. Stidham perhaps could allow them to run some routes a little deeper than the ones they ran with Brady.
- The OL (at this point) is healthier and they have better depth than last year (albeit without their savior OL coach anymore). And they should be able to use a fullback again this year (although not Develin who had to retire).
- Their TEs have to be better than last year. Anything would be better than last year.
- Receiver wise, a healthier Edelman, a healthier Sanu, more experience for Harry and Meyers, and a sleeper in Lee isn't god awful. They aren't fantastic, but IMO Stidham will put in work with everyone (something Brady was reluctant to do last year).
- At least for a little while, NE will have the element of surprise, as no one has any idea what plays NE will run sans Brady. Also, I expect Stidham will distribute the ball across all players instead of Brady focusing almost exclusively on Edelman.
- The defense should still be one of the better units in the league (as will special teams), and that could help NE get some drives in decent scoring position
All those move the needle slightly in the right direction as far as I am concerned. Overall, I think the NE offensive totals will end up being middle of the road (and not quite as bad as people are projected them). I am guessing the NE team offensive totals would fall near league average (maybe slightly below). Go back and look at the rosters, the skill position players, and the offensive numbers of the first three NE SB winning teams. There wasn't much to write home about with those teams either.
The problem for anyone considering Michel is if the offense really does struggle, Michel may not be in the game as much if they are constantly behind (since at least for now they haven't thrown to him very much and he has been yanked for White in passing situations). The other wildcard is Damien Harris, who some feel may get a chance to play more. I don't really have a feel for how NE might use Harris, and I would guess he might start out being a special teams guy and given some scraps on offense to see how he does. If Michel has some games of 15 carries for 32 yards and Harris breaks off a 20 yard run, the door could be open for Harris to get more carries (especially if they feel he can pass protect).
The Brady era Pats offense thrived on a successful play action game. Literally at this point it is impossible to know how well that would work with Stidham (and if they would be able to use it much if they end up playing from behind). One of the biggest issues for the offense the last couple of years has been that when Michel is in the game, they run and when White is in the game they pass. The Pats need to figure out ways to mix things up and become less predictable.
I doubt NE will suddenly start using Michel as a receiver, but they may have him run a few more routes and give him a few more targets to keep defenses honest. So people looking for more of a breakout for Michel are counting on 1) he stays healthy (his knees have been a problem), 2) he gets more work with the offense trying to go ball control (meaning they have to be winning), 3) the offense or defense is good enough to get more goal line looks), or 4) he evolves and catches more passes.
I doubt Michel suddenly makes a huge leap in production, but his acquisition costs / draft position bakes in that he is not expected to be a star quality back. The FBG staffers that make projections all have Michel projected at quite a bit less than his 1164 YFS / 9 TD line I posted earlier (as a prorated amount based on all his body of work in NE). Part of that is they predict Michel to miss some time (which is not a crazy thought). With his ADP is RB 36 or 37 in redraft leagues, people taking him there have to believe that the NE offense won't be horrible and that Michel can keep a large majority share of the team's carries.
Given the new reality in New England, the question becomes how that line will hold up given the QB change and the perceived atrociousness of the Patriots offense. The more someone believes in the offense, the more someone should believe in Michel being at least palatable. I happen to think the NE offense will end up being slightly better than last year for a number of reasons:
- Stidham gives the Pats a more mobile running back and opens up plays in the playbook that they couldn't run with Brady. Stidham perhaps could allow them to run some routes a little deeper than the ones they ran with Brady.
- The OL (at this point) is healthier and they have better depth than last year (albeit without their savior OL coach anymore). And they should be able to use a fullback again this year (although not Develin who had to retire).
- Their TEs have to be better than last year. Anything would be better than last year.
- Receiver wise, a healthier Edelman, a healthier Sanu, more experience for Harry and Meyers, and a sleeper in Lee isn't god awful. They aren't fantastic, but IMO Stidham will put in work with everyone (something Brady was reluctant to do last year).
- At least for a little while, NE will have the element of surprise, as no one has any idea what plays NE will run sans Brady. Also, I expect Stidham will distribute the ball across all players instead of Brady focusing almost exclusively on Edelman.
- The defense should still be one of the better units in the league (as will special teams), and that could help NE get some drives in decent scoring position
All those move the needle slightly in the right direction as far as I am concerned. Overall, I think the NE offensive totals will end up being middle of the road (and not quite as bad as people are projected them). I am guessing the NE team offensive totals would fall near league average (maybe slightly below). Go back and look at the rosters, the skill position players, and the offensive numbers of the first three NE SB winning teams. There wasn't much to write home about with those teams either.
The problem for anyone considering Michel is if the offense really does struggle, Michel may not be in the game as much if they are constantly behind (since at least for now they haven't thrown to him very much and he has been yanked for White in passing situations). The other wildcard is Damien Harris, who some feel may get a chance to play more. I don't really have a feel for how NE might use Harris, and I would guess he might start out being a special teams guy and given some scraps on offense to see how he does. If Michel has some games of 15 carries for 32 yards and Harris breaks off a 20 yard run, the door could be open for Harris to get more carries (especially if they feel he can pass protect).
The Brady era Pats offense thrived on a successful play action game. Literally at this point it is impossible to know how well that would work with Stidham (and if they would be able to use it much if they end up playing from behind). One of the biggest issues for the offense the last couple of years has been that when Michel is in the game, they run and when White is in the game they pass. The Pats need to figure out ways to mix things up and become less predictable.
I doubt NE will suddenly start using Michel as a receiver, but they may have him run a few more routes and give him a few more targets to keep defenses honest. So people looking for more of a breakout for Michel are counting on 1) he stays healthy (his knees have been a problem), 2) he gets more work with the offense trying to go ball control (meaning they have to be winning), 3) the offense or defense is good enough to get more goal line looks), or 4) he evolves and catches more passes.
I doubt Michel suddenly makes a huge leap in production, but his acquisition costs / draft position bakes in that he is not expected to be a star quality back. The FBG staffers that make projections all have Michel projected at quite a bit less than his 1164 YFS / 9 TD line I posted earlier (as a prorated amount based on all his body of work in NE). Part of that is they predict Michel to miss some time (which is not a crazy thought). With his ADP is RB 36 or 37 in redraft leagues, people taking him there have to believe that the NE offense won't be horrible and that Michel can keep a large majority share of the team's carries.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Now that I’m Michel free my nightmares have subsided and I no longer go to MA meetings.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Personally I think you just need to weigh his value (9th round in redraft people are saying in this thread) vs other ne backs. If you can snag Harris in the last two rounds that's better odds in my book.
Personally I sold him for Godwin before the season last year and will never miss an opportunity to bring that up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I got him for free in a Mike Evans deal, so I’m on the opposite side of the equation.
if he has a couple of decent games out of the gate & I can get anything resembling value for him, it’s a win for me.
because more than nothing is something.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
What are you guys considering value in a dynasty? I’ve seen pretty bad offers so far.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
What could possibly be a bad offer at this point? Perhaps $2 blind bidding bucks.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Was offered a 4.08 and turned it down.
Worth much more to wait & see. I’d give it even odds he hits on a couple games in a row & gets me back something in-season. I’d rather flip that coin than sell at basement value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As compared to the gamble that he has a good game or two, creating a window of opportunity in-season? Lots of offers are bad.
When I buy dirt cheap, I don’t tend to sell dirt cheap. “Buy low sell low” isn’t a great strategy. I’d rather hold and see what happens.
Streetduck
Footballguy
Traded Michel today for what is most likely a late second and Benny Snell, I own Conner.
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Damn, I'd be happily buying Michel at anything close to those prices. The Patriots are a defense and running game team at this point, and I think its very likely that James White's usage shrinks a ton with Brady gone. I'd put Michel's value at about 2.3 or so in a rookie draft. Just think much like there was an overreaction to Michel's 2019 playoff run, there is an overreaction to his poor 2020. I think the truth is somewhere in between the two. Also, I might be lower on this draft class than most, I think it drops off quite a bit in round 2.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I have tried to talk myself into buying. Hard pass. His floor in PPR is scary.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A solid take. I’ll add only that NE should once again have a better than average OL, and may even improve from 2019 as I recall they took some hits with injury last year.
it’s hard to reconcile the hate For Michele in here for with the 4+ YPC average and the fact that he’s likely to see a 1000+ yard / ~9 TD season. In the age of the “zero RB” strategy, Michele should be exactly the kind of RB to target in the later rounds. It’s gotta he the fact that so many got burned by him. No other explanation.
one other aspect of the NE game that could change is their RZ philosophy. They were one of the most “pass on 1st & goal at the 1” teams in the league the last decade or so. And with Brady to White or Brady to Gronk, I totally get that.
No Brady, no Gronk - that could conceivably change. This is speculation of course. Not saying it’s a fact by any stretch, but it seems logical.
I wonder....would people feel the same about Michele if he the exact same stat line, but had 15 TD upside?
Because he might. And it’s really not that far-fetched considering. I agree the Pats will be a bit better than many are predicting.
again - I paid virtually nothing for him. Rooting for him since I’ve got him on a dynasty squad, but I don’t let my rooting interest drive evaluation. just like I don’t let the hurt I might feel over a player that burned me once drive my evaluations either.
all of this said, there’s also a legit possibility that Stidham sucks, and Belichick has his eye on one of the QBs coming out in 2021. I find that hard to believe, but we’ll see.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s not a bad deal. Good handcuff & a 2nd? I would do that if I owned Conner.
And the Snell owner gets a lottery/depth player. Win-win.
I'd go so far as to say its entirely possible(like a 50% chance) that Michel is the centerpiece of the offense.A solid take. I’ll add only that NE should once again have a better than average OL, and may even improve from 2019 as I recall they took some hits with injury last year.
it’s hard to reconcile the hate For Michele in here for with the 4+ YPC average and the fact that he’s likely to see a 1000+ yard / ~9 TD season. In the age of the “zero RB” strategy, Michele should be exactly the kind of RB to target in the later rounds. It’s gotta he the fact that so many got burned by him. No other explanation.
one other aspect of the NE game that could change is their RZ philosophy. They were one of the most “pass on 1st & goal at the 1” teams in the league the last decade or so. And with Brady to White or Brady to Gronk, I totally get that.
No Brady, no Gronk - that could conceivably change. This is speculation of course. Not saying it’s a fact by any stretch, but it seems logical.
I wonder....would people feel the same about Michele if he the exact same stat line, but had 15 TD upside?
Because he might. And it’s really not that far-fetched considering. I agree the Pats will be a bit better than many are predicting.
again - I paid virtually nothing for him. Rooting for him since I’ve got him on a dynasty squad, but I don’t let my rooting interest drive evaluation. just like I don’t let the hurt I might feel over a player that burned me once drive my evaluations either.
all of this said, there’s also a legit possibility that Stidham sucks, and Belichick has his eye on one of the QBs coming out in 2021. I find that hard to believe, but we’ll see.
100% agree that NE will be more run heavy inside the 10, and that Michel is the perfect zero RB guy to go after in redraft, as he has a pretty high floor(for a guy going 30+ RB's deep) in my opinion.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
True. Never said he wasn’t
But he is the presumed handcuff, making him At least a little valuable to the Connor owner.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure he is. Samuels is still there and they drafted McFarland relatively high. McFarland adds a lot of speed to that backfield while Snell adds a lot of slow.
I'm not even a huge Michel fan and own him nowhere, but these trade values are ridiculously low - so maybe I should look into him where I need some RB depth.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s how I got him for basically free last season. People hate his guts. They were seemingly wooed by the playoff run, followed by an exceptional showing in the preseason, only to get Belichick’d, and Michele became the target of their hatred.
Then there was the report about his knees (which gets parroted so often as to be absurd, even as recently as this topic this week) where from FF owners you’d think the dude was in a wheelchair when he comes off the field.
granted, if Snell isn’t the handcuff, then I like that deal a lot less for the Connor owner. But I do see Michele as a buy-low candidate. Can’t really buy much lower considering he’ll get carries.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As always, good stuff here Faust. Seems very in-line with what some of us have been projecting (~1000/9) but the 2nd article is much more interesting. If Michele gets up towards even 30-40 receptions, his value spikes in PPR.
Barring injury to James White I'm skeptical that will happen.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I wouldn't have given my last fourth, 4.07, Tyler Johsnon, for this guy. Maybe I'm just mistaken, but you can't start this fellow unless you're in a league where you start a lot of guys. His yards and points accumulated on the bench are worthless.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think we have seen what Michel is and it isn’t all that magical. Maybe 1000 YFS on an offense that won’t score many points. I doubt he will improve given his bum knees and limited usage as a receiver. And now there is Harris added to the mix. Plus Sony is always an injury risk. I guess that isn’t terrible but it probably isn’t game changing in fantasy either.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Rotoworld may be off-base in thinking that Harris would open the year as the starter given his lack of experience and plenty of other established RB options in NE. I still don't think NE fully trusts Harris and based on his status as the forgotten man on the depth chart last year, I don't think he would leap to the head of the RB class. If Michel were to miss time (which no one really knows if that is a concern at this point), I think it would be a full blown RBBC to start the season. I saw the surgery described as a clean up to alleviate on-going pain . . . so the spin was that it was no big deal. Who knows if it was more major than that, but we are still 3 months away from the start of the season (if it starts on time).
This all makes sense but I still want to believe it’s HARRIS SZN. Who would be his competition for the early down role in the committee if Michel were to miss time?
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I'm all for HARRIS SZN over here. Gimme them rb2/flex numbers and I'll be a happy fantasy owner.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If Michel can't go (which I don't think is going to be an issue . . . 3 months is a long time to recover from what is being dubbed as minor foot surgery). As I said, I would guess Burkhead / White / Bolden would be in the mix along with Harris. NE felt all those other guys were more important week to week than Harris. Maybe that would change this year, but given no teams are practicing, I am not sure how Harris somehow got better by not playing. Based on how they brought along White and Vereen in the past, I don't see Harris going from inactive every game to getting the ball a ton overnight.
Maybe Harris became a workout warrior and will come to camp breaking ankles and plowing through people, but something would have had to change to get him a ton of touches almost overnight. If BB sees Harris as a huge upgrade over the other guys and Michel can't go, I could see Harris coming on. We'll have to see how things play out, but I think NE is relishing opponents having no idea what the offense is going to look like and who will be doing what in the post-Brady era. I would expect them to delve into different segments of their playbook to run things that either Brady didn't want to run, wasn't suited to run, or better fits Stidham than Brady.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on here. Last year, here were the weeks when a NE RB ranked in the Top 36 RB's on a weekly basis in PPR leagues . . .
Player, Games Played, Number of Weeks in the Top 36, Actual Ranking in Those Weeks
James White, 15 games, 13 weeks (19, 23, 20, 22, 19, 14, 22, 13, 30, 1, 21, 19, 31)
Sony Michel, 16 games, 8 weeks (22, 9, 22, 6, 24, 27, 29, 23)
Rex Burkhead, 13 games, 5 weeks (17, 35, 8, 21, 14)
Brandon Bolden, 15 games (30, 25, 25)
Bottom line, White was the only one that was a decent and consistent fantasy option. Michel had 2 good weeks. Burkhead made a splash once in awhile (but is usually banged up). I am not sure that there is a great fantasy option to pull from NE. White is usually drafted in the RB20 range, and he had one season where he shot up the rankings when he scored 12 TD (every other season he has had 6 or fewer TD's).
IMO, Harris would need to displace Michel but also take a chunk of receptions away from White to really be a fantasy asset as a RB2 or Flex.
brewer
Footballguy
I think the Patriot's have proven that they are hard to predict year to year. There will be no Tom Brady obviously, so I feel safe saying that the offense will change. They are a team that is only a few years removed from LeGarrette Blount rushing for 1200 yards and scoring 18 TDs.
If Harris is the #1 guy(which as you say is a huge if), I'm buying.
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