jeaton6
Footballguy
Your leagues must have funky scoring rules then. He was QB8-11 in all 15 of my leagues in PPG. Those leagues range from 4-6 points per pass TD and 1 per 20-25 yards passing.
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RB Tevin Coleman, SF (1 Viewer)
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah there is some major fluctuation if it is 4 or 6 per passing TD and point per 20 or 25 yards, -0 or -1 or -2 for interceptions. I guess that is still part of my point, he's not out there pushing the elite status. He is still in the pile of QBs that are all scoring similarly between QB 9-14. I found settings where Carr finished QB9 and he averaged <1 ppg more than QB14. So far he has been a totally replaceable QB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would they trade a valuable weapon/security on a cheap rookie contract? This almost never happens.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I agree with that. That's the rub for anyone not in the top 5 or so QBs. Not difficult to find replaceable production.
-OZ-
Footballguy
thanks, I was about to ask when the last time was this happened with a key cog of a team. The Falcons should be pushing to the playoffs the next couple years, maybe with a SB return trip. Virtually no chance of TC getting traded.
-OZ-
Footballguy
the group from QB6 (Cousins) to QB15 (Cam) was about 3ppg. So agreed with your point, even if it's more than one ppg.
Slider
Footballguy
So he doesn't walk the next year for nothing? He's clearly almost or as good as Freeman. How often does that happen?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If they are still contenders he is still valuable to them in many ways - what would they get in a trade that would be more valuable to them. Bear in mind they'd be in line for a compensatory pick if he walks away "for nothing".
I guess we never know what will happen but imo it's far less likely he gets traded than plays out his contract in Atlanta.
BigSteelThrill said:
You seem caught up in this idea that Coleman needs time or something to happen to have value. He was a 14+PPG RB last year in PPR leagues.
I mainly play in FFPC leauges and last I checked Colemans ADP was about 59 and Carr's is 105. Now that's redraft but to your point about Coleman being bogged down by Freeman and needing him to wait to have value this illustrates that in the here and now Coleman is a better asset to most people. Now you seem to think that Coleman will do better without Freeman so if anything it sounds to me like you are saying Coleman has a lot more upside and he's already a more coveted asset for 2017.
League formats can for sure make a difference in QB value but in typical 12 team, one start QB leagues I just don't put a big value on QB's unless you hit a Rodgers type level. Which is why Carr's ADP is 105.
Slider
Footballguy
I agree it makes little sense for them but he may start wanting out if they extend Freeman. That could push things towards a trade.
I think he's the best backup in the league. He probably thinks so too
Hankmoody
Footballguy
What he wants is irrelevant. He's got two years cheap left on the rookie deal. If he's a key piece to a SB contending team they aren't going to trade him. This is how FF owners work, not NFL GM's. Unlike fantasy, there's no way for them to replenish the production they would lose. I can easily just play a WR flex or trade a future 9th for Forte but the Falcons aren't getting squat if they lose Coleman.
Slider
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You have to really really believe in Coleman's talent to be a buyer, as he has almost no easily visible path to production in the near term.
Both his YPR and his TD total were due for a regression even before the OC change. It's unlikely that he will be such a solid RB play this year unless his touches increase fairly substantially, which doesn't appear likely to happen especially with Freeman looking like almost a lock to be extended.
The idea that he'll get traded before his rookie contract ends seems like wishful thinking at best. RBs just aren't worth much in the NFL, and we never really see these backup RBs who look like they could be starters get moved for anything.
If you believe in his talent then by all means, but it seems like there's a pretty likely path of natural regression plus Atlanta offense regression that leaves him as a middling fantasy option stuck behind a top end starter who's value will be lower at this time next year than it is right now.
Both his YPR and his TD total were due for a regression even before the OC change. It's unlikely that he will be such a solid RB play this year unless his touches increase fairly substantially, which doesn't appear likely to happen especially with Freeman looking like almost a lock to be extended.
The idea that he'll get traded before his rookie contract ends seems like wishful thinking at best. RBs just aren't worth much in the NFL, and we never really see these backup RBs who look like they could be starters get moved for anything.
If you believe in his talent then by all means, but it seems like there's a pretty likely path of natural regression plus Atlanta offense regression that leaves him as a middling fantasy option stuck behind a top end starter who's value will be lower at this time next year than it is right now.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Clearly? As a runner? He averaged half a yard less per carry than Freeman despite generally getting to play in better situations with fresher legs against tired defenses. The second half of a RBBC, especially the lightning half, is supposed to have a much higher YPC than the early down banger that starts the games. Not only was Coleman's not much higher, it was actually quite a bit lower.
The NFL does not really do diva RB's these days so I don't think it matters either but I also don't think he's the least bit disgruntled if they extend Freeman or not.
If he's got any kind of brain he would have no reason to be. As many have pointed out he's on a cheap rookie deal. His best possible payday is that second contract and playing less reduces your injury risk and leads to less wear and tear which only helps him get this second contract and extend his career.
He split time last year and put him over 14 fantasy points a game so as I keep saying you don't need to wait on him, you don't need him traded or something to have value. Again in the here and now he's going in 5th-6th rounds of redraft leagues.
As for regression his TD pace is not easy to keep up so it likely falls but I don't see his YPR declining. OC change is unknown but I don't assume it will regress him either, it might in fact lead to more of a 50/50 split and increase him, we just don't know. I don't think if they resign Freeman or not it has one bit of bearing on his playing time.
I got him down as basically a high upside league altering type of backup who doubles as a low end RB2 instead of high end RB2 he was last season. That's right now in his current situation, not hoping something happens to change it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think expecting the same per touch efficiency as last year even if Shanahan were still there would be a huge mistake. Expecting it with the OC change is an even bigger one.
The TD totals are unlikely to be repeated unless touches go way up. I'm not sure why you're so sure of the YPR remaining the same. His YPR was one of the highest of all time for a RB last year. Not just higher, but WAY higher than career best for Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, Reggie Bush, Ladainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, etc. It's just not going to happen again.
Yes, there will be waiting. The Atlanta offense is likely to regress. Coleman's TD and YPR are likely to regress. He was starting as a RB2 before any of that regression. We've seen this many times before. He's not going to be a top 15 RB on 100 carries and 31 catches again, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even get that much work with Atlanta's offense likely not on the field as long.
Like I said, you have to REALLY believe in his talent, to the point where you think his borderline all-time great TD efficiency and borderline all-time great YPR last year are just a product of him being a borderline all-time great running back and not just a couple of things that will ultimately be a statistical outlier based on a relatively small sample size in his career even if he's merely "really good".
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The Atlanta offense was so efficient last year it's hard to keep up with but I think you are over estimating the OC change and assuming it's a major negative.
My mistake on YPR, I was running with yards per carry which is all on me. Yes I think his drops a little but if his YPR drops 30% based on last years reception load he's lose exactly one fantasy point per game.
He was RB13 last year in PPG so as high end of a RB2 as it gets in 12 teams leagues. I got him down as suffering a 15-20% drop in PPG production or 1.5-2 fantasy points per week due to lower TD totals and lower YPR which would move him to lowest end RB2 territory but again with upside to be a league altering winner if Freeman went down and upside if more if this turns into a true 50/50 situation. So we'll have to agree to disagree that there will be waiting and even if you don't agree with me as I keep saying he's going in 5th-6th round of redrafts. This to me is less a case of needing to wait, as it's a case of you simply don't like Coleman's current situation as much as other people. That is not the same thing to me.
Wow, I didn't expect to start such a debate but I'm glad it turned out to be worth the discussion.zed2283 said:
I neglected to mention that my league is non-PPR. Carr ranked as QB8 and Coleman as RB14. My other QBs are Ben, Dak, Tannehill, and Bridgwater. My other noteworthy RBs are D.Johnson, Blount, L.Miller, Prosise.
My thought was the same as others here, that Coleman would be unable to keep up the TD pace that made him relevant. Both because it was an improbable year and due to the OC change. I've watched the Falcons a lot and I just don't think Coleman is very athletic and certainly not as good as Freeman. I also figured that Ben will be retiring soon and Tannehill and Bridgwater are wildcards, so I jumped at the opportunity to lock up my QB situation with Derek & Dak for the foreseeable future. And I definitely feel that Carr can make the jump into the elite tier.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Not really knocking anyone for wanting the Coleman side in a dynasty/keeper format.
However, the redraft #s dont belong in the discussion. Irrelevant.
I will say that Coleman doesnt have anymore upside then Carr, respectively. But the position is more valuable, admittedly. Obviously Carr has a decade of value ahead of him and I'm not even sure if Coleman has a single year ahead of him as a bellcow RB.
Disagree. It is strongly relevant when assessing his current value. People are not drafting him that high in redraft hoping he leaves Freeman's shadow someday.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Let's just talk dynasty ADP. Coleman is 56 (RB19) and Carr is 65 (QB6). Close to a toss up.
Seems reasonable but not really anything to do with context of why I introduced ADP of redrafts into the discussion.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Redraft numbers were relevant to the point being discussed, which was whether a dynasty owner needs to wait on Coleman or not. It was a simple argument and probaby doesn't need elaborated on anymore. Yes Coleman has ~RB2 value today. As an owner I will take that kind of production and hold until I feel I can get great value for him or until he blows up. Unless my roster is so loaded that I don't want an RB2 with really good upside. But if it's loaded then I'm not too worried. As for the specific Tevin vs Carr debate, I'm good either way depending on one's needs.
Context means everything. Redraft ADP was brought into the conversation by me in response to the opinion that those who are investing in him or paying a decent price for him are doing so in hopes that one day down the road if/when he gets out of Freeman's shadow he'll have been worth it. That implies he's not worth that price for the upcoming season. I introduced redraft ADP to debunk the notion he needs to separate from Freeman to retain 2017 value, that people are paying more for him for the 2017 season then they are paying for Carr. That investing in Freeman should not be looked as a future move.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Coleman scored RB2 numbers last year alongside some all-time outliers in efficiency in the two categories that made him a RB2.
I don't think that means he's likely to score RB2 numbers this year, though I agree with the statement that he has "RB2 value today". I just think the people valuing him that way are probably going to end up being wrong. To each their own, of course.
Wish I'd have read that before wasting time responding. Thank you for getting the context.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Like I said, I agree that he has RB2 value, but I don't agree that he should. The point I made to start all this you have to really really believe in his talent to value him that way. Either you think he's the best TD scoring back of all-time and the best receiving back of all-time and he's going to repeat his all-time great efficiency in those metrics, or he's probably not going to finish as a RB2 (short of a Freeman injury).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Here's another way of looking at it. If you give Coleman the same amount of touches next year and give him the TD efficiency of Ladainian Tomlinson and the yards per reception of Darren Sproles that would leave him with 5 touchdowns 269 receiving yards. Assuming all his other numbers stay the same that would leave him with 140 points which would have been good for RB34 last year.
Remember, that's assuming he locks in the TD efficiency of one of the best TD scorers all-time and the YPR of one of the best receiving backs of all-time.
So if you think Tevin Coleman is going to be a RB2 next year you either think he's going to get a LOT more touches next year or you think he's going to be a significantly better TD scorer than Ladainian Tomlinson and a significantly better receiver than Darren Sproles.
Like I said, you have to have a LOT of faith in his talent to be valuing him that way.
Remember, that's assuming he locks in the TD efficiency of one of the best TD scorers all-time and the YPR of one of the best receiving backs of all-time.
So if you think Tevin Coleman is going to be a RB2 next year you either think he's going to get a LOT more touches next year or you think he's going to be a significantly better TD scorer than Ladainian Tomlinson and a significantly better receiver than Darren Sproles.
Like I said, you have to have a LOT of faith in his talent to be valuing him that way.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sounds fair. I'm not too concerned with this offense taking a step back. I think they're too good and will be in enough shootouts that there will be RZ and goal line opportunities for all to prosper. I would bet on Coleman finishing as an RB2 again this year. If he slips into RB3 territory I still like rostering him. I think this is arguably the most talented and potent 1-2 backfield punch in the NFL. If Freeman ever did get hurt or Coleman does go FA in a couple years I'd be glad to hold him for such an occasion. And if he remains a fringe RB2 guy I won't lose sleep over it. But I did originally buy low so I'm not too bent over it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Much like Coleman, Atlanta's regression seems almost telegraphed.
We see this every year. The Seahawks after 2015. The Panthers after 2016. QBs that have a pretty established baseline that have a major outlier season and then head right back to where they were before.
Matt Ryan is not suddenly Aaron Rodgers. He's not one of the top 5 all-time greatest NFL QBs who is going to set NFL records for efficiency every year for the rest of his career. It was likely a one or two time deal.
Prior to last year Ryan had never broken 8 ypa. Last year he threw for an NFL RECORD 9.3 ypa.
Prior to last year Ryan had never broken 100 as a passer rating. Last year he threw for the 5th highest in NFL HISTORY of 117.1
Prior to last year Ryan had never thrown for 30 TDs. Last year he threw for 38.
It's not like he has better weapons than usual now. He's always had great weapons (in many years, better ones). It was just everything breaking right for one of those magical seasons that they regress from after. We've seen it so many times before I think he'll basically wind up like a better Matt Stafford. The occasional massive season with a whole lot of his career averages mixed in between. It's just that his career averages are a lot better than Stafford's (though still far from what he did last year).
Unless you believe Ryan is in the same class as Rodgers/Brady/Peyton then you can't expect him to keep playing like this. If he does, he's as good as those guys. Realistically, that's probably not the case.
So yes, as long as we work under the assumption that Matt Ryan is better than Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady and under the assumption that Tevin Coleman is better at scoring TDs than Ladainian Tomlinson and under the assumption that Coleman is a better receiver than Darren Sproles, he should be a lock for RB2 production again next year. Realistically, there's a miniscule chance of any of those three things being true, much less all of them.
And who says fringe RB3 is the regression? As I mentioned even if he matches Tomlinson's TD efficiency and Sproles' receiving efficiency alongside an offense that remains the greatest of all-time in efficiency his numbers from last year would equal out to a fringe RB4, not fringe RB3. And again, the reality is that he's probably nowhere near as good a TD scorer as Tomlinson, nowhere near as good a receiver as Sproles, and that Ryan is nowhere near the best QB in NFL history.
There are just so many things that seem like obvious outliers that had to line up last season. Of course a Freeman injury would be a great equalizer in the short term, but that's not something I want to rely on.
ETA: And all of that is even BEFORE we consider the OC change.
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ZWK
Footballguy
It looks like you might be leaving out his receiving TDs, and not adjusting for the fact that he only played 13 games. I'm getting 188 fpts in 16 games, if he maintains last year's pace of carries, yards per carry, and receptions, with Tomlinson's TD per carry rate and Sproles's YPR and TD per reception rate. (145/640/6.6 rushing and 38/333/2.2 receiving.) Still just low-end RB2 numbers, but a lot more useful than RB34.
I do agree with the broader point that he's due for significant regression in his efficiency numbers.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You're right, I forgot to account for him playing for only 13 games last year. At those numbers you listed that leaves him RB21 overall, RB28 PPG.
Again though, we're talking about the assumption that he's on par with one of the best TD scorers of all-time and one of the best receiving RBs of all-time alongside a QB playing with the best efficiency of all-time. I think it's likely his regression will be to a fair bit more than simply down to a mold of Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well I'm one that definitely believes in the talent of the Falcons now, particularly the emergence of Freeman, and the continued uber crazy dominance of Julio and what that brings to their offense. Freeman gives them an explosive element that Ryan hasn't had out of the backfield before. They miss Gonzalez but Hooper was a homerun so far. I'd take Julio and any two competent journeymen receivers over almost any WR corps. Almost. And Coleman is an explosive two punch. So even though I have to agree that regression seems most likely, I can't see him falling too far. I don't have the biggest of hopes for Coleman but unless he is part of some bigger deal I have to hold. People don't seem too interested in buying him, though.
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need2know
Footballguy
I just keep thinking about the recent bad history of Superbowl losers. The next year is always horrific
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Probably overdrafted as his efficiency- especially as a receiver was historic. Still possess RB1 potential if Freeman is hurt though.
need2know
Footballguy
He's kinda like Derrick Henry but with a more defined role in the offense. He doesn't need Freeman to get hurt to produce. Not sure I really want him on my roster though unless he falls
Ilov80s
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
You would think he would. Prob better for the Henry or Murray thread, but the Titans would be dumb to not give Henry more run
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah it's got to happen. I think Murray takes a step back from last year but he's worst case scenario Mark Ingram and best case scenario Devonte Freeman.
