Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Jax at Carolina (-3.5) (42.5)
So far it looks like Jax is trying to set the stage for Blaine Gabbert to start very soon. I don’t believe Garrard was worse than Luke McCown and also there seems to be no ability to throw the ball down the field. I don’t know what Gabbert will do when he is given controls but I am not anticipating a Cam Newton breakout and that’s no slight on Gabbert but the Jaguars have nothing like Steve Smith or an OC like Chudzinski so I am anti-Jax coaching at this point too.
MJD is the main cog in the offense but he is not getting the ball out of the backfield via screens and short passes and that’s the troubling part. He had a rough game last week against the Jets but certainly that is no reason to abandon ship. He is avg 92 yds rush so far, has a TD in 2 games, those are solid numbers over the season but an injection in the passing offense and an effort to get him the ball in some space would be much appreciated by owners. This week he faces Carolina who is allowing 4.8 ypc and if I’m Jax I hand the ball off to him at least 20+ times. Carolina’s defense is weak especially against the run and they have lost 2 starting LBs in the last 2 weeks, no reason to sit MJD despite not being a top10 guy right now. Forget Karim right now, 20/48 on the season, MJD is head and shoulders above him right now.
I said DeAngelo was an avoid last week and I want to believe he can get on track but I don’t find the numbers to support it. The Jags are only allowing 3.3 ypc right now and while I wouldn’t describe their front 7 as elite they did manage to keep the vaunted Jets OL at bay most of the game last week and not allow too many big runs. You ahve to scrap and earn every inch on these guys and Carolina right now does not have the patience to run and is all too eager to play with their new toy at QB. I don’t blame them but at some point they have to get the running game going. I am not going to debate Williams and Stewart, you guys can go round and round. Stewart had a much better game last week because he caught a career high in receptions. Is that going to continue? Maybe so but I am going to need some consistency before I would recommend starting him as a solid flex play.
Williams has the ability to break a run at any time and because of the 32-3 loss last week a lot of owners might feel that Jax can be beaten but I don’t see where this is a great match up for DeAngelo. Keep an eye on this though because at some point you might think a QB throwing it for 400 yards a week would open up the running lanes but to this point defenses are selling out to stop the run. One other thing is that Cam has 2 rushing TDs already and is probably on his way to maybe 7-8 or more on the season. how many rushing TDs is Carolina going to score? Maybe 15-20 for the season so that leaves perhaps 10-12 for Stewart and DeAngelo to split up. I could see both of them staying below the double digit mark and maybe not even clearing 7-8 TD each which put a lot of pressure on owners trying to spot start them.
Final Score: Jacksonville 21...Carolina 20
Miami at Cleveland (-3) (41)
The Dolphins are 6 for 26 on 3rd down conversions. That is not going to win a lot of games and it shows their inability to make plays. Chad Henne after a major game 1 came crashing back to Earth last week completing less than 50% of his passes in the Houston game. Daniel Thomas burst on the scene last week gaining 107 yards on 18 carries. The downside was Reggie Bush became almost an afterthought and while it was rumored he was battling some injuries he also came back into the game so it feels like a mystery if coaches were holding him back or if this is going to be an even split.
Miami is allowing 4.2 ypc which is pretty avg so Cleveland will try and run the ball as much as they can. Peyton Hillis is #9 at RB in my PPR leagues. The inability at WR right now is allowing him to catch a lot of balls. They have not equated into a ton of yards but Colt McCoy is dumping it off to him as the check down so owners are profiting. Hillis is only avg 3.4 ypc but he also is avg 22 carries a game. I was reading some Hardesty hype but right now I just don’t see that happening. Montario has not burst for chunks of yards when he is in the game and quite frankly if they wanted to give him the ball some to keep Hillis in the 20 range for carries as an owner I wouldn’t mind. He had a beautiful TD run last week where he bounced it out to the left and streaked into the end zone. he has been a perfect RB2 that is producing low end RB1 numbers right now, can’t imagine owners are complaining or losing sleep. Hardesty has a long run of 7 and a 2.4 ypc avg, nothing to discuss right now.
Cleveland has hit their TEs for 3 TDs so far and Miami has allowed at least 3-4 TD to the TEs so far with the likes of Gronk, Hernandez, and Owen Daniels. They have issues in the secondary and I like both Watson and Moore to find some opps to cash in. The browns went form 11 penalties against Cinci to 3 last week in Indy, that’s a better recipe for success.
Hillis is an obvious remain in your line up but the real question will be Daniel Thomas. I think it’s a role of the dice as Bush might see more action this week but if you like to live on the edge you could do worse than Thomas this week. if you happened to own him on the same team where you drafted Jamaal Charles or SJax, maybe you want to roll with him, otherwise I would try and watch him for another week to get a better feel for him. Big battle brewing between Joe Haden and Brandon Marshall this weekend.
Final Score: Miami 23...Cleveland 17
Denver at Tennessee (-7) (42)
Rich line in this game that is a little reactionary to the Baltimore game last week. The Titans are only allowing 3.3 ypc but they are only gaining 2.8, not very good. Denver on the other hand is giving up about 4.4 ypc. Denver lost 23-20, then won 24-22 last week. What can you take out of the Oakland and Cincinnati games? Dalton was a rookie and they barely won, the defense didn’t make a lot of plays but Champ Bailey was inactive so that certainly doesn’t help them. Denver opponents are converting under 25% of their 3rd down conversions and that stat will be a ringing theme today. Why you ask? Because if teams can’t convert on 3rd down they punt and I don’t know about you but watching my skill guys sitting on the bench most of the afternoon is infuriating. The Titans are allowing closer to 50% of their opponent’s 3rd down conversions so I think this game could be closer than many think.
Willis McGahee didn’t come close to the reception number he had in week 1 but he did bail his owners out by grinding out 90+ on the ground and a TD. I went back and looked at the film on NFLGR and I was impressed with how decisive he was hitting the hole. He got some great blocks from his FB including the 1st run he had and also the interior for the Broncos were getting a nice push even though Cinci most of the time early in the game were stacking it with 8 and 9 in the box, in fact with the CBs they had most of their team within 5 yards of the ball much of the 1st half. That didn’t stop Willis form running straight up the gut. In fact as much as I was down on him I am convinced he si a much better fit for John Fox and Knownone Moreno owners better seek other plans because unless McGahee goes down with an injury I don’t see how they can make him ride the bench. Now I don’t believe McGahee makes a strong play every week but he was consistent and he rarely was hit behind the LOS or brought down for a loss this past week. Can he carry it 20+ times a game the rest of the year...well I doubt he would hold up but he should be given every opp to see about 60-65% of the carries. Also Lance Ball was impressive when he was on the field. Honestly the Broncos might be better off with McGahee/Ball and rotate Moreno in for 3rd down or passing situations...I know owners don’t want to hear that and I really wanted to slide McGahee back but if you watch the game tape it looks obvious to me and should to you too.
Chris Johnson is off to a slow start but he’s a perfect buy low. Denver couldn’t stop Darren McFadden, the Raiders OL is playing better than the Titans but I expect them to do much better than their avg so Johnson owners should finally see themselves in the top12 this week. I like the fact Hass is getting it done at QB because Johnson can easily catch 4-5 balls a game in this offense when they need to pass the ball. Javon Ringer is pretty worthless in redraft but I do think in dynasty that you might wait till he has a string of no production because of a lack of touches for 2-3 weeks and then just scoop him up. he is going to be on another team eventually and at MSU he carried the rock about 500 times his Senior Year.
Final Score: Tennessee 23...Denver 17
NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants OL gets a big giant “F” in my book right now. 3.3 ypc and allowing 3.5 sacks per game ranks them near the bottom when you combine those two factors. These guys were touted as being a premier OL and to this point I’m not seeing that. Bradshaw is not running that well, Jacobs has been solid in short yardage but this team needs to get their running game going to take some of the pressure off Eli. Maybe Eli holds the ball too long at times but they are not keeping the pressure off him right now.
3rd down conversion for NY? Less than 25% so again they are one of those teams that is punting the ball too much for owners to be happy. The defense however is holding the opposition to less than 30% in 3rd down conversions so that is about the only thing they can hang their hat on is solid defense despite being ravaged by injuries to this point.
The only thing to prevent Philly from winning on paper is the health status of Michael Vick. Shady McCoy is on pace for over 250+ carries this season which I don’t think most expected but he also is doing serious damage with his catches as well. Not many RBs right now you would rather have in PPR formats or really any format as he has 4 TDs already. Philly’s weakness to this point is a 5.3 ypc on rush defense which is pretty bad and maybe this is the week the Giants get their running game on track, it certainly ha to be the battle plan to keep the ball out of Vick’s hands. The Giants are going to have to convert on their 3rd and <5 yds or else they might as well just stay home. The Giants defense will be jacked for this game as they want some revenge for what the Eagles did to them last year and has DeSean Jackson show boating over and over and over and over again.
Final Score: Philadelphia 31...NY Giants 21
Houston at New Orleans (-4) (53)
I don’t think Ben Tate is on the same level as Foster and let me explain before this turns into a Miller Lite spot from the 70s and 80s. Foster was explosive and he also added a lot in the passing game so I think no matter what Tate does the next few weeks that whenever Foster comes back he will likely take the controls back over...the problem is when will that be? That said, Tate is doing a good job on the ground and finding the holes that his OL provides. What we have not seen is the explosiveness that we saw in Arian Foster in 2010. Also I would like to point out that Foster was the lead back on the 1st drive which was long and certainly had Tate come in on the 2nd drive to start I doubt anyone would have batted an eye but the Texans wanted to ride Foster as long as he could handle the load...that tells you something right there. Don’t get into “i-Fights” with folks who own one or the other because ultimately they want “their guy” to be “the guy” and I just don’t see where Tate is going to be the RB1 once Foster gets his hammy healed and I hope they let him fully heal before they rush him back again. Also, Ward was inactive and might be out this week again so suddenly we are down to Tate and Steve Slaton...I’m not saying to rush out and grab Slaton but we are basically a Ben Tate muscle strain from being down to the RB4 on the depth charts and we are only entering week 3.
Tate came into the game on the 3rd drive and Foster had already carried it about 8 times so we don’t really know how Kubiak was going to rotate them in and out of the line up. I’m saying keep an open mind and don’t assume anything. If you can get a nice return on Tate in a trade right now as he could be your flyer or RB4/5 and you want to get better at QB or WR, I say go for it. I don’t see anyway that he would shove a healthy Foster to the side. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, I’m not hating on the guy but Foster looked really good early in last week’s game. I tried to see if I could find the play where Foster hurt himself and the last play I see him on the field he is taking a pretty nice shot by Karlos Dansby on a little out o the left, maybe the hit knocked him at an angle but it’s tough to really say. This week I would start Tate for sure as no one is a threat to really steal any touches from him. The play calling in the 2nd half by the Texans was pretty questionable last week as they should have pounded the ball more with the lead. I hope they have a game plan to control the clock this week or they will be in trouble down in the Bayou.
Let’s discuss New Orleans and if you remember I said last week that Sproles was a guy you wanted to get into your line up for flex spots. Here is what is bugging me about Mark Ingram right now, he doesn’t convert the 3rd and short situations and if he can’t do that then what is his outlook the rest of the year? I realize the Bears are pretty tough run stoppers and the Texans are giving up 4.9 ypc on defense so this is the week for Ingram to make a statement. Pierre Thomas and Ingram split it about 65/35 on the 1st and 2nd down running plays except Thomas is actually targeted out of the backfield and to this point Ingram is nonexistent in the passing game but his pass protection is getting better and that was evident this past week. That should earn him more playing time. One of the two be it Ingram or Pierre Thomas is going to rip off some chunks on the Texans, maybe both but you have to give a slight nod to Ingram in the anticipation of his 1st career rushing TD. I still like Darren Sproles in the flex until the Saints can get healthy in their WRs but I would not bank on double digits every week from Sproles. Majority of his receptions are short passes and other than the review booth taking a nap when he stepped out of bounds on his way to the end zone, most were very short check downs by brees because he simply doesn’t have WRs that are gaining a lot of separation outside of the one time he hit Henderson up top and that was actually covered OK but the Bears failed to bring him down after the catch. The Saints are converting an outstanding 55%+ on 3rd downs but mostly thru the air.
Final Score: New Orleans 30...Houston 24
Detroit at Minnesota (+3.5)(44.5)
The Vikings are ripping off 5.8 ypc right now and the one weakness the Detroit Lions are showing is possibly the rush defense. They looked great against the Bucs but Blount only had 5 carries in that game. KC before Jamaal Charles went down was gashing the Lions but the game got out of hand and KC had to abandon the run for the most part. I expect the Viking to test the front 7 of Detroit and dare them to stop the run.
The Lions are giving up 4.6 ypc and the league avg usually hovers around 4.1/4.2 over the season so the are not terrible and i think one they get their rookie DT back form injury to pair with King Kong inside they are going to be mighty tough to do a lot against. Detroit is doing all the right things including putting their QB in a winning position. Early on in the game and I wrote about this is the KC-Det game recap, Stafford was hitting a lot of short passes to guys like Nate Burleson and also Jahvid Best and allowing these gys to make plays. I don’t think he went down the field much until he hit Titus Young on a beautiful catch down the middle of the field and that happened once the Lions were up 14-3. So the coaches play it close to the vest and then after things get rolling they open up the playbook more for him. Best is benefiting from this a lot right now. Stafford has taken zero sacks to this point. Also Detroit is winning the TOP battle with 34:25 vs 25:35 for their opponents. That’s a lot of extra plays their offense gets to run during the games.
Still this week I think the Vikings will try and pound the ball on Detroit as much as possible. They have perhaps the best RB in the league and while I could look up the past games for ADP and what he has done at home against the Lions, the fact is Detroit is a different team and correct me if I am wrong but they have now won 6 games in a row. They go on the road to Minnesota and then Dallas next week. The Lions are the better team on paper because they have a better QB, a much better set of WRs in Calvin, Nate, and Titus Young who is coming on. Still I have this feeling that Minnesota is going to make it close and perhaps Detroit is a little full of themselves right now...that or Detroit is just going to keep on winning and ignoring all the press right now about how good they are. DT, Kevin Williams returns for Minnesota and he will be a force inside which should settle that DL down and get them set to slow down the Lions.
The last time Detroit beat the Minnesota Vikings in the Metrodome was when President Bill Clinton was serving is 2nd term in office in 1997. In the last 19 years the Lions are 2-17 in the Metrodome. The last time they spanked the Vikings on the road was 1991, 20 years ago when they beat the Vikes 34-14. Revenge is going to be sweet and I’m not about to bet against the Lions just for the sake of it. I expect it to be close for a while but the Lions are going to start a New Order in the NFC North and folks that haven’t been paying attention are going to start paying attention. They remind me of Clubber Lang in Rocky III, they’re hungry, they want the title, and they want it now except this time there is no Sylvester Stallone to stand up to them. I still question their OL and the running game is not great but they will take to the air and win this game on the arm of Matt Stafford. ADP will have another strong outing but in the end it won’t be enough for the Vikings who sooner or later are going to play Christian Ponder.
Final Score: Detroit 24...Minnesota 16
San Fran at Cinci (-2.5) (41)
A re-match of Super Bowl XVI with Alex Smith and Andy Dalton playing the roles of Joe Montana and Kenny Anderson. The Niners are simply a fantasy wasteland right now. They are looking good on rush defense but that was against both the Seadogs and the Cowgirls who both have very shaky OLines right now. I expect Cinci to run the ball early in the game much as they have done both weeks so far and not ask too much of their young rookie QB. Here are a few stats you need to know. San Fran is allowing only 2.5 ypc but against vastly inferior running teams. Cinci is avg 4 ypc on offense and Benson actually looked good taking hand offs in the shotgun formation last week. I wish Jay Gruden(OC) would run more from that formation instead of running him up the gut all the time. Benson is not flashy but put him in some space and he can create yards. It won’t be easy for him this week so if you do have slightly better options you might consider them. Feel free to post up your options and what your thoughts are and I’m sure some of the posters will chime in.
Andy Dalton is completing 66% of his passes right now. A.J. green looks great for a rookie and while he won’t be a fantasy stud every week he does seem to have a good chance to score most weeks as he is tough to defend one on one. Not sure who San Fran will stick on him but I can see him catching a long ball and perhaps giving Benson a couple of attempts inside the 5 yard line. A.J. green is going to mean good things for everyone in Cinci. Dalton has not had a real stinker yet but be prepared for him to have some long days during the year. All rookies have them and he will not be immune to it either.
I didn’t mention Gore but McGahee sure found room to roam on their front 7 last week; many times with the Bengals committing 8-10 in the box so I wouldn’t assume Gore has an awful week even with the long drive to Cinci. Look for Gore to have his best game of the year so far.
Final Score: San Fran 17..Cincinnati 16
New England at Buffalo (+9) (52)
You would think that with the amazing offense New England has that their defense would be solid but believe it or not they have 55 first downs on offense and have allowed 54 on defense. The Pats are 62.5% on 3rd conversions but they are almost 50% on the same stat line for the defense. The Pats are giving up 4.5 ypc to boot on defense as well.
BJGE has 2 TD in 2 games so if you play in TD heavy leagues he is a pretty solid choice week in and week out. Last week Danny Woodhead was pretty much a non factor but he could easily pop up again this week. His production is going got be up and down. Wes Welker has 15-240-2TD but Deion Branch also has 15-222 but no touchdowns yet. Hernandez might be out a couple weeks and the Pats offense should be interesting to watch with him out to see who picks up the slack.
The Bills are allowing 5 ypc on defense but gaining 5.9 ypc on offense. The Bills are goin to have to throw to stay in the game but I also expect them to try and control the clock with plenty of Fred Jackson early and often. Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 63% of his passes and that has to help the OL and open some of these big holes for Jackson. The good thing about Freddie is he also breaks tackles and can turn a loss into a gain. The Bills are very balanced with 72 pass plays vs 64 runs. They are winning the TOP with almost a 34 to 26 minute advantage. Their offense is on the field a lot so I don’t really understand national critics saying they are a bad team masquerading as a good team. The numbers don’t lie, they are playing at a high level right now. David Nelson is supposed to take the slot but I will refer to Bills fans who have been awesome on the boards with info. I will say I would like to see CJ Spiller get more action especially in the passing game but I don’t think he is very good at pass protection which might be the problem. IMO, this game is gonna be closer than some think.
Final Score: New England 34...Buffalo 31
Baltimore at St Louis (-4) (42)
This line is whacked. I know Baltimore laid an egg last week but St Louis is not in the same class at all with the Ravens right now. The Rams are under 25% on 3rd down conversions, losing the battle of TOP, have allowed 8 FIRST DOWN VIA PENALTIES, nursing injuries, and I think if the Ravens won last week this line would be more like 8 or 9. Maybe playing in the dome is not good for Baltimore traditionally but I can’t find a reason to not like Baltimore by a lot this weekend. The one thing the Rams have been doing well is holding opposing QBs to about 50% completion rates including Eli and Vick.
The Rams are giving up 5.1 ypc so you can bet the Ravens will find a lot of touches for Ray Rice and that running game. I wouldn’t touch any of the Rams RBs right now, SJax is nursing his injury, Cadillac went down on Monday Night, maybe both can go this weekend but the Rams are going got try and pass as much as they can. Running at Ngata just seems like a plan to fail.
Final Score: Baltimore 27...St Louis 9
NY Jets at Oakland (+3.5) (41)
The Jets are only gaining 3 ypc, they are having problems running the ball and neither Greene nor LT look good. Compound that with Nick Mangold OUT this weekend and you have a recipe for disaster this weekend. Their defense is the backbone and they will once again be called upon to carry them this weekend in what should be a jacked up Black Hole in Oakland. Fans should be pretty happy with what they have seen despite Buffalo scoring 35 in the 2nd half last week.
DMC has a tough match up but I don’t see how you can sit him. I think Oakland has a chance to pull this one out with a couple of timely interceptions of Mark Sanchez. The defense has only allowed 6.17 per pass attempt despite what you saw last weekend. I don’t like Michael Bush much this weekend. If you haven’t seen Denarius Moore, you really need to watch him, he’s everything the Raider Nation was pimping. It’s going to be a big test for this young OL but the Raiders will stay in this game and they will be able to make a game of this. DMC might not hit top 10 this week but no way you sit him either. Jason Campbell is going to be key in this game. (Muffled voice)...Oak is giving up 6.7 ypc.
Final Score: Oakland 18...NY Jets 15
Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5) (45)..line started at -13
The Chiefs are so bad right now, suffered so many key injuries including their best defender and best offensive weapon, the stats show that and I just cannot come up with a reason why they should be competitive this weekend. You factor in a San Diego team that is fresh off a loss to the Pats and you have a recipe for another blowout this weekend. What is weird is they have had decent OL play in the run game with a 5.5 avg. Dexter McCluster is going to get 10-15 touches be it runs, receptions, but he is only 175 pounds so unless he dodges a lot of tackles he won’t last long. Owners wanting him to get 20 touches are begging for this guy to follow Charles to the IR.
The Bolts are giving up 5 ypc on defense and opponents are converting 50% on 3rd down. Those are not good numbers and KC will surely try and run the ball to control the clock if they can. I love Ryan Mathews this week. I have him in my top5 and I see another someone has the same feelings. I also like Mike Tolbert to be top25 this week as well but Ryan Mathews is on the verge of having some big weeks. He has 24/109 on the ground but he also has 10/135 catching the ball and does a lot once he is moving. Tolbert has similar yardage in the passing game but he has 17 receptions to get there.
Final Score: San Diego 38...Kansas City 17
Arizona at Seattle (+3) (42)
Keep an eye on Beanie as he is dealing with a hammy issue. He hasn’t been ruled out but this guy seems to have a lot of injuries so far in the NFL. Seattle is yielding 5.2 ypc on defense but I don’t particular like Wells if he is not close to 100%. Both of these teams reek of bottom barrel and I point to my favorite stat that shows terrible mental toughness and also poor coaching and that’s 3rd downs converted via penalties and AZ has given 7 of them out, Seattle 6 so far this season. That is just awful and you are giving games away by doing that. Arizona is lucky they aren’t 0-2.
Both team are losing the TOP battle at abut 25 minutes vs 35 minutes. The one big difference that stands out is Kolb and Fitzgerald. Kolb has a QB rating of 110 and Fitz really sprang to life on a long pass play for a TD last week. Seattle can be a terrible place to play and it is the season opener for Seahawks fans but they are a bad team with a bad OL, Gallery is out for the next month or two, their WR1 is nursing injuries, their starting QB is TJax, no way Lynch is a good option and the Cards are decent in rush defense to this point so don’t go searching for points that aren’t there.
Final Score Arizona 24...Seattle 14
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Falcons have an interesting 5.8 ypc on offense but when you look at it Turner has had 2 big rips and the rest of the time he hasn’t done a lot. That is leading to inconsistency on the offense and they have 28 first downs via pass to only 8 first down running the football. So if that 5.8 were really accurate they would be converting more first downs on the ground. The OL has also allowed 9 sacks so far. I don’t think their OL is playing at a high level right now, not even close.
The Bucs are losing the TOP battle 25 minutes to 35 minutes They are 50% on 3rd down conversions which is pretty good and they are gaining 4.6 yp on offense but they also are giving up 4.6 ypc. If Atlanta is smart they will see the opp to run the ball on Sunday and Michael Turner should be a good option. The Falcons are better than avg in rush defense so I think Blount will be pretty pedestrian on Sunday.
Final Score: Atlanta 24...Tampa Bay 20
Green Bay at Chicago (+3.5)
The Packers are quickly becoming a dream for FF owners as they are scoring a lot of points, racking up a lot of yards but their defense is allowing 475 yards a game!!! 400 of it thru the air. it seems clear that they are leaning on James Starks at this point and the split has been about 60/40 but the problem is they are using Kuhn when they get inside the 5 or 10 yard line which really hampers the upside of any RB in Green Bay right now. Ryan Grant is almost an afterthought and unless an injury hits he isn’t likely to be worth starting most weeks. I hesitate to recommend you cut him but it’s not a bad options right now. The vaunted Bears defense is allowing 5.3 ypc on defense, that’s not good but I haven’t seen anyone sustain drives on them running the ball so it’s a pretty misleading stat right now.
Last week the Bears on offense looked like one of the worst 5 offenses in the league. Their OL sustained a couple injuries and come the 4th quarter they allowed 5 sacks and Mike Martz only called 2 running plays the entire second half. Talk about putting too much pressure on Cutler, that was ridiculous. They have few weapons in the passing game but throw it almost every down. Matt Forte is their best option throwing the ball. I would assume top10 numbers for Forte this week agianst the Packers shaky defense.
Final Score: Green Bay 27...Chicago 21
Pittsburgh at Indy (+10.5)
This must have looked like a dream for NBC a few months back. There isn’t much to discuss in this game so I’m going to be brief. Bench all Indy players on offense outside of maybe Reggie Wayne. I expect Indy to get clobbered by the Steelers who looked more like the Aluminums after Week 1. Steelers won 24-0 last week, similar outcome anticipated this week. I see nothing for Indy to rally behind at this point and when you can’t beat Cleveland at home then you are a pretty bad team right now.
Mendenhall all day as teams have been rushing the football 37 times a game. Indy controls the ball less than 25 minutes a game so Pittsburgh and their offense will be on the field all night. Pittsburgh in a pretty lopsided affair.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 33...Indy 3
Washington at Dallas (-5.5)
The Skins on 3rd down have only allowed teams to convert a total of 4 times so far this season. They are having some success running the football and their weakness has been run defense allowing close to 5 yds a carry but the good news for them is Dallas and their young inexperienced OL is only gaining 2.3 ypc which is why I think Washington has a good chance to march in and steal a game here. I am disturbed by the line as Vegas is begging us to take the Skins and the 5.5 but there is plenty to be leery of Dallas with.
The Cowboys have a lot of injuries and even though they are deep meaning they have weapons at other slots, they simply have too many IMO to keep up. Romo has cracked rib/ribs, Austin is OUT, their other WR1 is coming back from an injury that made him miss last week, Felix has a bum shoulder, Witten reportedly suffered an injury but is expected to start. They are a walking ER right now. You can’t start Felix and I’m not sure that Choice or the rookie is a better option either. The OL is not opening holes and Romo has seen a lot of pressure too.
Tim Hightower is starting to lose a little steam and we saw Roy Helu burst out last week looking very sharp in their win over Arizona. I’m not saying Helu will take over anytime soon but this is going to be more of a split then what we saw in week 1. Dallas is very good against the run, in fact near the top of the league right now but they will be tested as Washington is committed to running the ball. Also look for Washington to find holes in the secondary with Santana Moss, Fred Davis, and Jabar Gaffney. I like the Skins this week and I understand why Dallas fans will say otherwise.
Final Score: Washington 20...Dallas 17
Enjoy the weekend folks.
So far it looks like Jax is trying to set the stage for Blaine Gabbert to start very soon. I don’t believe Garrard was worse than Luke McCown and also there seems to be no ability to throw the ball down the field. I don’t know what Gabbert will do when he is given controls but I am not anticipating a Cam Newton breakout and that’s no slight on Gabbert but the Jaguars have nothing like Steve Smith or an OC like Chudzinski so I am anti-Jax coaching at this point too.
MJD is the main cog in the offense but he is not getting the ball out of the backfield via screens and short passes and that’s the troubling part. He had a rough game last week against the Jets but certainly that is no reason to abandon ship. He is avg 92 yds rush so far, has a TD in 2 games, those are solid numbers over the season but an injection in the passing offense and an effort to get him the ball in some space would be much appreciated by owners. This week he faces Carolina who is allowing 4.8 ypc and if I’m Jax I hand the ball off to him at least 20+ times. Carolina’s defense is weak especially against the run and they have lost 2 starting LBs in the last 2 weeks, no reason to sit MJD despite not being a top10 guy right now. Forget Karim right now, 20/48 on the season, MJD is head and shoulders above him right now.
I said DeAngelo was an avoid last week and I want to believe he can get on track but I don’t find the numbers to support it. The Jags are only allowing 3.3 ypc right now and while I wouldn’t describe their front 7 as elite they did manage to keep the vaunted Jets OL at bay most of the game last week and not allow too many big runs. You ahve to scrap and earn every inch on these guys and Carolina right now does not have the patience to run and is all too eager to play with their new toy at QB. I don’t blame them but at some point they have to get the running game going. I am not going to debate Williams and Stewart, you guys can go round and round. Stewart had a much better game last week because he caught a career high in receptions. Is that going to continue? Maybe so but I am going to need some consistency before I would recommend starting him as a solid flex play.
Williams has the ability to break a run at any time and because of the 32-3 loss last week a lot of owners might feel that Jax can be beaten but I don’t see where this is a great match up for DeAngelo. Keep an eye on this though because at some point you might think a QB throwing it for 400 yards a week would open up the running lanes but to this point defenses are selling out to stop the run. One other thing is that Cam has 2 rushing TDs already and is probably on his way to maybe 7-8 or more on the season. how many rushing TDs is Carolina going to score? Maybe 15-20 for the season so that leaves perhaps 10-12 for Stewart and DeAngelo to split up. I could see both of them staying below the double digit mark and maybe not even clearing 7-8 TD each which put a lot of pressure on owners trying to spot start them.
Final Score: Jacksonville 21...Carolina 20
Miami at Cleveland (-3) (41)
The Dolphins are 6 for 26 on 3rd down conversions. That is not going to win a lot of games and it shows their inability to make plays. Chad Henne after a major game 1 came crashing back to Earth last week completing less than 50% of his passes in the Houston game. Daniel Thomas burst on the scene last week gaining 107 yards on 18 carries. The downside was Reggie Bush became almost an afterthought and while it was rumored he was battling some injuries he also came back into the game so it feels like a mystery if coaches were holding him back or if this is going to be an even split.
Miami is allowing 4.2 ypc which is pretty avg so Cleveland will try and run the ball as much as they can. Peyton Hillis is #9 at RB in my PPR leagues. The inability at WR right now is allowing him to catch a lot of balls. They have not equated into a ton of yards but Colt McCoy is dumping it off to him as the check down so owners are profiting. Hillis is only avg 3.4 ypc but he also is avg 22 carries a game. I was reading some Hardesty hype but right now I just don’t see that happening. Montario has not burst for chunks of yards when he is in the game and quite frankly if they wanted to give him the ball some to keep Hillis in the 20 range for carries as an owner I wouldn’t mind. He had a beautiful TD run last week where he bounced it out to the left and streaked into the end zone. he has been a perfect RB2 that is producing low end RB1 numbers right now, can’t imagine owners are complaining or losing sleep. Hardesty has a long run of 7 and a 2.4 ypc avg, nothing to discuss right now.
Cleveland has hit their TEs for 3 TDs so far and Miami has allowed at least 3-4 TD to the TEs so far with the likes of Gronk, Hernandez, and Owen Daniels. They have issues in the secondary and I like both Watson and Moore to find some opps to cash in. The browns went form 11 penalties against Cinci to 3 last week in Indy, that’s a better recipe for success.
Hillis is an obvious remain in your line up but the real question will be Daniel Thomas. I think it’s a role of the dice as Bush might see more action this week but if you like to live on the edge you could do worse than Thomas this week. if you happened to own him on the same team where you drafted Jamaal Charles or SJax, maybe you want to roll with him, otherwise I would try and watch him for another week to get a better feel for him. Big battle brewing between Joe Haden and Brandon Marshall this weekend.
Final Score: Miami 23...Cleveland 17
Denver at Tennessee (-7) (42)
Rich line in this game that is a little reactionary to the Baltimore game last week. The Titans are only allowing 3.3 ypc but they are only gaining 2.8, not very good. Denver on the other hand is giving up about 4.4 ypc. Denver lost 23-20, then won 24-22 last week. What can you take out of the Oakland and Cincinnati games? Dalton was a rookie and they barely won, the defense didn’t make a lot of plays but Champ Bailey was inactive so that certainly doesn’t help them. Denver opponents are converting under 25% of their 3rd down conversions and that stat will be a ringing theme today. Why you ask? Because if teams can’t convert on 3rd down they punt and I don’t know about you but watching my skill guys sitting on the bench most of the afternoon is infuriating. The Titans are allowing closer to 50% of their opponent’s 3rd down conversions so I think this game could be closer than many think.
Willis McGahee didn’t come close to the reception number he had in week 1 but he did bail his owners out by grinding out 90+ on the ground and a TD. I went back and looked at the film on NFLGR and I was impressed with how decisive he was hitting the hole. He got some great blocks from his FB including the 1st run he had and also the interior for the Broncos were getting a nice push even though Cinci most of the time early in the game were stacking it with 8 and 9 in the box, in fact with the CBs they had most of their team within 5 yards of the ball much of the 1st half. That didn’t stop Willis form running straight up the gut. In fact as much as I was down on him I am convinced he si a much better fit for John Fox and Knownone Moreno owners better seek other plans because unless McGahee goes down with an injury I don’t see how they can make him ride the bench. Now I don’t believe McGahee makes a strong play every week but he was consistent and he rarely was hit behind the LOS or brought down for a loss this past week. Can he carry it 20+ times a game the rest of the year...well I doubt he would hold up but he should be given every opp to see about 60-65% of the carries. Also Lance Ball was impressive when he was on the field. Honestly the Broncos might be better off with McGahee/Ball and rotate Moreno in for 3rd down or passing situations...I know owners don’t want to hear that and I really wanted to slide McGahee back but if you watch the game tape it looks obvious to me and should to you too.
Chris Johnson is off to a slow start but he’s a perfect buy low. Denver couldn’t stop Darren McFadden, the Raiders OL is playing better than the Titans but I expect them to do much better than their avg so Johnson owners should finally see themselves in the top12 this week. I like the fact Hass is getting it done at QB because Johnson can easily catch 4-5 balls a game in this offense when they need to pass the ball. Javon Ringer is pretty worthless in redraft but I do think in dynasty that you might wait till he has a string of no production because of a lack of touches for 2-3 weeks and then just scoop him up. he is going to be on another team eventually and at MSU he carried the rock about 500 times his Senior Year.
Final Score: Tennessee 23...Denver 17
NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants OL gets a big giant “F” in my book right now. 3.3 ypc and allowing 3.5 sacks per game ranks them near the bottom when you combine those two factors. These guys were touted as being a premier OL and to this point I’m not seeing that. Bradshaw is not running that well, Jacobs has been solid in short yardage but this team needs to get their running game going to take some of the pressure off Eli. Maybe Eli holds the ball too long at times but they are not keeping the pressure off him right now.
3rd down conversion for NY? Less than 25% so again they are one of those teams that is punting the ball too much for owners to be happy. The defense however is holding the opposition to less than 30% in 3rd down conversions so that is about the only thing they can hang their hat on is solid defense despite being ravaged by injuries to this point.
The only thing to prevent Philly from winning on paper is the health status of Michael Vick. Shady McCoy is on pace for over 250+ carries this season which I don’t think most expected but he also is doing serious damage with his catches as well. Not many RBs right now you would rather have in PPR formats or really any format as he has 4 TDs already. Philly’s weakness to this point is a 5.3 ypc on rush defense which is pretty bad and maybe this is the week the Giants get their running game on track, it certainly ha to be the battle plan to keep the ball out of Vick’s hands. The Giants are going to have to convert on their 3rd and <5 yds or else they might as well just stay home. The Giants defense will be jacked for this game as they want some revenge for what the Eagles did to them last year and has DeSean Jackson show boating over and over and over and over again.
Final Score: Philadelphia 31...NY Giants 21
Houston at New Orleans (-4) (53)
I don’t think Ben Tate is on the same level as Foster and let me explain before this turns into a Miller Lite spot from the 70s and 80s. Foster was explosive and he also added a lot in the passing game so I think no matter what Tate does the next few weeks that whenever Foster comes back he will likely take the controls back over...the problem is when will that be? That said, Tate is doing a good job on the ground and finding the holes that his OL provides. What we have not seen is the explosiveness that we saw in Arian Foster in 2010. Also I would like to point out that Foster was the lead back on the 1st drive which was long and certainly had Tate come in on the 2nd drive to start I doubt anyone would have batted an eye but the Texans wanted to ride Foster as long as he could handle the load...that tells you something right there. Don’t get into “i-Fights” with folks who own one or the other because ultimately they want “their guy” to be “the guy” and I just don’t see where Tate is going to be the RB1 once Foster gets his hammy healed and I hope they let him fully heal before they rush him back again. Also, Ward was inactive and might be out this week again so suddenly we are down to Tate and Steve Slaton...I’m not saying to rush out and grab Slaton but we are basically a Ben Tate muscle strain from being down to the RB4 on the depth charts and we are only entering week 3.
Tate came into the game on the 3rd drive and Foster had already carried it about 8 times so we don’t really know how Kubiak was going to rotate them in and out of the line up. I’m saying keep an open mind and don’t assume anything. If you can get a nice return on Tate in a trade right now as he could be your flyer or RB4/5 and you want to get better at QB or WR, I say go for it. I don’t see anyway that he would shove a healthy Foster to the side. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, I’m not hating on the guy but Foster looked really good early in last week’s game. I tried to see if I could find the play where Foster hurt himself and the last play I see him on the field he is taking a pretty nice shot by Karlos Dansby on a little out o the left, maybe the hit knocked him at an angle but it’s tough to really say. This week I would start Tate for sure as no one is a threat to really steal any touches from him. The play calling in the 2nd half by the Texans was pretty questionable last week as they should have pounded the ball more with the lead. I hope they have a game plan to control the clock this week or they will be in trouble down in the Bayou.
Let’s discuss New Orleans and if you remember I said last week that Sproles was a guy you wanted to get into your line up for flex spots. Here is what is bugging me about Mark Ingram right now, he doesn’t convert the 3rd and short situations and if he can’t do that then what is his outlook the rest of the year? I realize the Bears are pretty tough run stoppers and the Texans are giving up 4.9 ypc on defense so this is the week for Ingram to make a statement. Pierre Thomas and Ingram split it about 65/35 on the 1st and 2nd down running plays except Thomas is actually targeted out of the backfield and to this point Ingram is nonexistent in the passing game but his pass protection is getting better and that was evident this past week. That should earn him more playing time. One of the two be it Ingram or Pierre Thomas is going to rip off some chunks on the Texans, maybe both but you have to give a slight nod to Ingram in the anticipation of his 1st career rushing TD. I still like Darren Sproles in the flex until the Saints can get healthy in their WRs but I would not bank on double digits every week from Sproles. Majority of his receptions are short passes and other than the review booth taking a nap when he stepped out of bounds on his way to the end zone, most were very short check downs by brees because he simply doesn’t have WRs that are gaining a lot of separation outside of the one time he hit Henderson up top and that was actually covered OK but the Bears failed to bring him down after the catch. The Saints are converting an outstanding 55%+ on 3rd downs but mostly thru the air.
Final Score: New Orleans 30...Houston 24
Detroit at Minnesota (+3.5)(44.5)
The Vikings are ripping off 5.8 ypc right now and the one weakness the Detroit Lions are showing is possibly the rush defense. They looked great against the Bucs but Blount only had 5 carries in that game. KC before Jamaal Charles went down was gashing the Lions but the game got out of hand and KC had to abandon the run for the most part. I expect the Viking to test the front 7 of Detroit and dare them to stop the run.
The Lions are giving up 4.6 ypc and the league avg usually hovers around 4.1/4.2 over the season so the are not terrible and i think one they get their rookie DT back form injury to pair with King Kong inside they are going to be mighty tough to do a lot against. Detroit is doing all the right things including putting their QB in a winning position. Early on in the game and I wrote about this is the KC-Det game recap, Stafford was hitting a lot of short passes to guys like Nate Burleson and also Jahvid Best and allowing these gys to make plays. I don’t think he went down the field much until he hit Titus Young on a beautiful catch down the middle of the field and that happened once the Lions were up 14-3. So the coaches play it close to the vest and then after things get rolling they open up the playbook more for him. Best is benefiting from this a lot right now. Stafford has taken zero sacks to this point. Also Detroit is winning the TOP battle with 34:25 vs 25:35 for their opponents. That’s a lot of extra plays their offense gets to run during the games.
Still this week I think the Vikings will try and pound the ball on Detroit as much as possible. They have perhaps the best RB in the league and while I could look up the past games for ADP and what he has done at home against the Lions, the fact is Detroit is a different team and correct me if I am wrong but they have now won 6 games in a row. They go on the road to Minnesota and then Dallas next week. The Lions are the better team on paper because they have a better QB, a much better set of WRs in Calvin, Nate, and Titus Young who is coming on. Still I have this feeling that Minnesota is going to make it close and perhaps Detroit is a little full of themselves right now...that or Detroit is just going to keep on winning and ignoring all the press right now about how good they are. DT, Kevin Williams returns for Minnesota and he will be a force inside which should settle that DL down and get them set to slow down the Lions.
The last time Detroit beat the Minnesota Vikings in the Metrodome was when President Bill Clinton was serving is 2nd term in office in 1997. In the last 19 years the Lions are 2-17 in the Metrodome. The last time they spanked the Vikings on the road was 1991, 20 years ago when they beat the Vikes 34-14. Revenge is going to be sweet and I’m not about to bet against the Lions just for the sake of it. I expect it to be close for a while but the Lions are going to start a New Order in the NFC North and folks that haven’t been paying attention are going to start paying attention. They remind me of Clubber Lang in Rocky III, they’re hungry, they want the title, and they want it now except this time there is no Sylvester Stallone to stand up to them. I still question their OL and the running game is not great but they will take to the air and win this game on the arm of Matt Stafford. ADP will have another strong outing but in the end it won’t be enough for the Vikings who sooner or later are going to play Christian Ponder.
Final Score: Detroit 24...Minnesota 16
San Fran at Cinci (-2.5) (41)
A re-match of Super Bowl XVI with Alex Smith and Andy Dalton playing the roles of Joe Montana and Kenny Anderson. The Niners are simply a fantasy wasteland right now. They are looking good on rush defense but that was against both the Seadogs and the Cowgirls who both have very shaky OLines right now. I expect Cinci to run the ball early in the game much as they have done both weeks so far and not ask too much of their young rookie QB. Here are a few stats you need to know. San Fran is allowing only 2.5 ypc but against vastly inferior running teams. Cinci is avg 4 ypc on offense and Benson actually looked good taking hand offs in the shotgun formation last week. I wish Jay Gruden(OC) would run more from that formation instead of running him up the gut all the time. Benson is not flashy but put him in some space and he can create yards. It won’t be easy for him this week so if you do have slightly better options you might consider them. Feel free to post up your options and what your thoughts are and I’m sure some of the posters will chime in.
Andy Dalton is completing 66% of his passes right now. A.J. green looks great for a rookie and while he won’t be a fantasy stud every week he does seem to have a good chance to score most weeks as he is tough to defend one on one. Not sure who San Fran will stick on him but I can see him catching a long ball and perhaps giving Benson a couple of attempts inside the 5 yard line. A.J. green is going to mean good things for everyone in Cinci. Dalton has not had a real stinker yet but be prepared for him to have some long days during the year. All rookies have them and he will not be immune to it either.
I didn’t mention Gore but McGahee sure found room to roam on their front 7 last week; many times with the Bengals committing 8-10 in the box so I wouldn’t assume Gore has an awful week even with the long drive to Cinci. Look for Gore to have his best game of the year so far.
Final Score: San Fran 17..Cincinnati 16
New England at Buffalo (+9) (52)
You would think that with the amazing offense New England has that their defense would be solid but believe it or not they have 55 first downs on offense and have allowed 54 on defense. The Pats are 62.5% on 3rd conversions but they are almost 50% on the same stat line for the defense. The Pats are giving up 4.5 ypc to boot on defense as well.
BJGE has 2 TD in 2 games so if you play in TD heavy leagues he is a pretty solid choice week in and week out. Last week Danny Woodhead was pretty much a non factor but he could easily pop up again this week. His production is going got be up and down. Wes Welker has 15-240-2TD but Deion Branch also has 15-222 but no touchdowns yet. Hernandez might be out a couple weeks and the Pats offense should be interesting to watch with him out to see who picks up the slack.
The Bills are allowing 5 ypc on defense but gaining 5.9 ypc on offense. The Bills are goin to have to throw to stay in the game but I also expect them to try and control the clock with plenty of Fred Jackson early and often. Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 63% of his passes and that has to help the OL and open some of these big holes for Jackson. The good thing about Freddie is he also breaks tackles and can turn a loss into a gain. The Bills are very balanced with 72 pass plays vs 64 runs. They are winning the TOP with almost a 34 to 26 minute advantage. Their offense is on the field a lot so I don’t really understand national critics saying they are a bad team masquerading as a good team. The numbers don’t lie, they are playing at a high level right now. David Nelson is supposed to take the slot but I will refer to Bills fans who have been awesome on the boards with info. I will say I would like to see CJ Spiller get more action especially in the passing game but I don’t think he is very good at pass protection which might be the problem. IMO, this game is gonna be closer than some think.
Final Score: New England 34...Buffalo 31
Baltimore at St Louis (-4) (42)
This line is whacked. I know Baltimore laid an egg last week but St Louis is not in the same class at all with the Ravens right now. The Rams are under 25% on 3rd down conversions, losing the battle of TOP, have allowed 8 FIRST DOWN VIA PENALTIES, nursing injuries, and I think if the Ravens won last week this line would be more like 8 or 9. Maybe playing in the dome is not good for Baltimore traditionally but I can’t find a reason to not like Baltimore by a lot this weekend. The one thing the Rams have been doing well is holding opposing QBs to about 50% completion rates including Eli and Vick.
The Rams are giving up 5.1 ypc so you can bet the Ravens will find a lot of touches for Ray Rice and that running game. I wouldn’t touch any of the Rams RBs right now, SJax is nursing his injury, Cadillac went down on Monday Night, maybe both can go this weekend but the Rams are going got try and pass as much as they can. Running at Ngata just seems like a plan to fail.
Final Score: Baltimore 27...St Louis 9
NY Jets at Oakland (+3.5) (41)
The Jets are only gaining 3 ypc, they are having problems running the ball and neither Greene nor LT look good. Compound that with Nick Mangold OUT this weekend and you have a recipe for disaster this weekend. Their defense is the backbone and they will once again be called upon to carry them this weekend in what should be a jacked up Black Hole in Oakland. Fans should be pretty happy with what they have seen despite Buffalo scoring 35 in the 2nd half last week.
DMC has a tough match up but I don’t see how you can sit him. I think Oakland has a chance to pull this one out with a couple of timely interceptions of Mark Sanchez. The defense has only allowed 6.17 per pass attempt despite what you saw last weekend. I don’t like Michael Bush much this weekend. If you haven’t seen Denarius Moore, you really need to watch him, he’s everything the Raider Nation was pimping. It’s going to be a big test for this young OL but the Raiders will stay in this game and they will be able to make a game of this. DMC might not hit top 10 this week but no way you sit him either. Jason Campbell is going to be key in this game. (Muffled voice)...Oak is giving up 6.7 ypc.
Final Score: Oakland 18...NY Jets 15
Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5) (45)..line started at -13
The Chiefs are so bad right now, suffered so many key injuries including their best defender and best offensive weapon, the stats show that and I just cannot come up with a reason why they should be competitive this weekend. You factor in a San Diego team that is fresh off a loss to the Pats and you have a recipe for another blowout this weekend. What is weird is they have had decent OL play in the run game with a 5.5 avg. Dexter McCluster is going to get 10-15 touches be it runs, receptions, but he is only 175 pounds so unless he dodges a lot of tackles he won’t last long. Owners wanting him to get 20 touches are begging for this guy to follow Charles to the IR.
The Bolts are giving up 5 ypc on defense and opponents are converting 50% on 3rd down. Those are not good numbers and KC will surely try and run the ball to control the clock if they can. I love Ryan Mathews this week. I have him in my top5 and I see another someone has the same feelings. I also like Mike Tolbert to be top25 this week as well but Ryan Mathews is on the verge of having some big weeks. He has 24/109 on the ground but he also has 10/135 catching the ball and does a lot once he is moving. Tolbert has similar yardage in the passing game but he has 17 receptions to get there.
Final Score: San Diego 38...Kansas City 17
Arizona at Seattle (+3) (42)
Keep an eye on Beanie as he is dealing with a hammy issue. He hasn’t been ruled out but this guy seems to have a lot of injuries so far in the NFL. Seattle is yielding 5.2 ypc on defense but I don’t particular like Wells if he is not close to 100%. Both of these teams reek of bottom barrel and I point to my favorite stat that shows terrible mental toughness and also poor coaching and that’s 3rd downs converted via penalties and AZ has given 7 of them out, Seattle 6 so far this season. That is just awful and you are giving games away by doing that. Arizona is lucky they aren’t 0-2.
Both team are losing the TOP battle at abut 25 minutes vs 35 minutes. The one big difference that stands out is Kolb and Fitzgerald. Kolb has a QB rating of 110 and Fitz really sprang to life on a long pass play for a TD last week. Seattle can be a terrible place to play and it is the season opener for Seahawks fans but they are a bad team with a bad OL, Gallery is out for the next month or two, their WR1 is nursing injuries, their starting QB is TJax, no way Lynch is a good option and the Cards are decent in rush defense to this point so don’t go searching for points that aren’t there.
Final Score Arizona 24...Seattle 14
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Falcons have an interesting 5.8 ypc on offense but when you look at it Turner has had 2 big rips and the rest of the time he hasn’t done a lot. That is leading to inconsistency on the offense and they have 28 first downs via pass to only 8 first down running the football. So if that 5.8 were really accurate they would be converting more first downs on the ground. The OL has also allowed 9 sacks so far. I don’t think their OL is playing at a high level right now, not even close.
The Bucs are losing the TOP battle 25 minutes to 35 minutes They are 50% on 3rd down conversions which is pretty good and they are gaining 4.6 yp on offense but they also are giving up 4.6 ypc. If Atlanta is smart they will see the opp to run the ball on Sunday and Michael Turner should be a good option. The Falcons are better than avg in rush defense so I think Blount will be pretty pedestrian on Sunday.
Final Score: Atlanta 24...Tampa Bay 20
Green Bay at Chicago (+3.5)
The Packers are quickly becoming a dream for FF owners as they are scoring a lot of points, racking up a lot of yards but their defense is allowing 475 yards a game!!! 400 of it thru the air. it seems clear that they are leaning on James Starks at this point and the split has been about 60/40 but the problem is they are using Kuhn when they get inside the 5 or 10 yard line which really hampers the upside of any RB in Green Bay right now. Ryan Grant is almost an afterthought and unless an injury hits he isn’t likely to be worth starting most weeks. I hesitate to recommend you cut him but it’s not a bad options right now. The vaunted Bears defense is allowing 5.3 ypc on defense, that’s not good but I haven’t seen anyone sustain drives on them running the ball so it’s a pretty misleading stat right now.
Last week the Bears on offense looked like one of the worst 5 offenses in the league. Their OL sustained a couple injuries and come the 4th quarter they allowed 5 sacks and Mike Martz only called 2 running plays the entire second half. Talk about putting too much pressure on Cutler, that was ridiculous. They have few weapons in the passing game but throw it almost every down. Matt Forte is their best option throwing the ball. I would assume top10 numbers for Forte this week agianst the Packers shaky defense.
Final Score: Green Bay 27...Chicago 21
Pittsburgh at Indy (+10.5)
This must have looked like a dream for NBC a few months back. There isn’t much to discuss in this game so I’m going to be brief. Bench all Indy players on offense outside of maybe Reggie Wayne. I expect Indy to get clobbered by the Steelers who looked more like the Aluminums after Week 1. Steelers won 24-0 last week, similar outcome anticipated this week. I see nothing for Indy to rally behind at this point and when you can’t beat Cleveland at home then you are a pretty bad team right now.
Mendenhall all day as teams have been rushing the football 37 times a game. Indy controls the ball less than 25 minutes a game so Pittsburgh and their offense will be on the field all night. Pittsburgh in a pretty lopsided affair.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 33...Indy 3
Washington at Dallas (-5.5)
The Skins on 3rd down have only allowed teams to convert a total of 4 times so far this season. They are having some success running the football and their weakness has been run defense allowing close to 5 yds a carry but the good news for them is Dallas and their young inexperienced OL is only gaining 2.3 ypc which is why I think Washington has a good chance to march in and steal a game here. I am disturbed by the line as Vegas is begging us to take the Skins and the 5.5 but there is plenty to be leery of Dallas with.
The Cowboys have a lot of injuries and even though they are deep meaning they have weapons at other slots, they simply have too many IMO to keep up. Romo has cracked rib/ribs, Austin is OUT, their other WR1 is coming back from an injury that made him miss last week, Felix has a bum shoulder, Witten reportedly suffered an injury but is expected to start. They are a walking ER right now. You can’t start Felix and I’m not sure that Choice or the rookie is a better option either. The OL is not opening holes and Romo has seen a lot of pressure too.
Tim Hightower is starting to lose a little steam and we saw Roy Helu burst out last week looking very sharp in their win over Arizona. I’m not saying Helu will take over anytime soon but this is going to be more of a split then what we saw in week 1. Dallas is very good against the run, in fact near the top of the league right now but they will be tested as Washington is committed to running the ball. Also look for Washington to find holes in the secondary with Santana Moss, Fred Davis, and Jabar Gaffney. I like the Skins this week and I understand why Dallas fans will say otherwise.
Final Score: Washington 20...Dallas 17
Enjoy the weekend folks.
) thinking we see a big day from the RBs, with a bit still sprinkled to the WRs, but more like a 250-300yds passing. 
Woodhead this week.
