RB touches - how many before they are considered bellcows? (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

Jim Brown was the first RB to have 300+ touches, when he had 314 in 1959. That was during a 12-game season, so he averaged 26.2 touches. In today's 17-game season, that would be 445 touches. Brown remained the touch king for the early 1960's, when the league increased to 14 games. He had a high of 351 touches in 1961, which extrapolates to 426 touches for a 17-game season. The league remained a 14-game season until 1978, when they added 2 more games. But, from 1970 thru 1977, every season saw a 300+ RB. Lydell Mitchell's 372 would become 452 over 17 games. In the 2nd year of the 16-game season, Walter Payton finally hit the 400-touch mark. Five years later, James Wilder set the record with 492, which will never be beaten (unless the season is 20 games). For the next 30 years after Wilder's wild season (1985 thru 2014), the average high was 411 touches, which figures out to 437 touches in a 17-game season.

Looking at the numbers above, the top RB's pretty much stayed the same from the late 1950's thru the early 2010's. Sure, there were outliers like James Wilder, but for the most part, the top RB's were getting 25-26 touches per game. Since DeMarco Murray's 449 touches in 2014, only 2 RB's managed 400+ touches, with CMC being the most recent in 2019. We switched to 17 games in 2021, and the 25-touch season went out the window. Over the last 3 seasons, the highest we've hit was 23.1 touches per game when Josh Jacobs had 393 touches in 2022. Last year top dog Christian McCaffrey had only 339 touches. Sure, he only played in 16 games, but that's still only 21.2 touches per game.

It's obvious the top workhorses are getting less touches, but at what number (touches per game) would you draw your line in the sand to be considered a bellcow?

 

[eighsse2]

Jim Brown was the first RB to have 300+ touches, when he had 314 in 1959. That was during a 12-game season, so he averaged 26.2 touches. In today's 17-game season, that would be 445 touches. Brown remained the touch king for the early 1960's, when the league increased to 14 games. He had a high of 351 touches in 1961, which extrapolates to 426 touches for a 17-game season. The league remained a 14-game season until 1978, when they added 2 more games. But, from 1970 thru 1977, every season saw a 300+ RB. Lydell Mitchell's 372 would become 452 over 17 games. In the 2nd year of the 16-game season, Walter Payton finally hit the 400-touch mark. Five years later, James Wilder set the record with 492, which will never be beaten (unless the season is 20 games). For the next 30 years after Wilder's wild season (1985 thru 2014), the average high was 411 touches, which figures out to 437 touches in a 17-game season.

Looking at the numbers above, the top RB's pretty much stayed the same from the late 1950's thru the early 2010's. Sure, there were outliers like James Wilder, but for the most part, the top RB's were getting 25-26 touches per game. Since DeMarco Murray's 449 touches in 2014, only 2 RB's managed 400+ touches, with CMC being the most recent in 2019. We switched to 17 games in 2021, and the 25-touch season went out the window. Over the last 3 seasons, the highest we've hit was 23.1 touches per game when Josh Jacobs had 393 touches in 2022. Last year top dog Christian McCaffrey had only 339 touches. Sure, he only played in 16 games, but that's still only 21.2 touches per game.

It's obvious the top workhorses are getting less touches, but at what number (touches per game) would you draw your line in the sand to be considered a bellcow?

18 touches per game seems like a good threshold to me. But yeah it depends just how seriously someone wants to use the term "bellcow" I guess. If you're getting 70% of the RB touches, or really close to it, you could probably be called a bellcow.

 

[TheWinz]

18 touches per game seems like a good threshold to me. But yeah it depends just how seriously someone wants to use the term "bellcow" I guess. If you're getting 70% of the RB touches, or really close to it, you could probably be called a bellcow.

Your wording made me think of Jeff Foxworthy - You might be a bellcow if...

 

[menobrown]

View it more as a percentage of touches then total touches and generally would have that around 70%.

 

[eighsse2]

18 touches per game seems like a good threshold to me. But yeah it depends just how seriously someone wants to use the term "bellcow" I guess. If you're getting 70% of the RB touches, or really close to it, you could probably be called a bellcow.

Your wording made me think of Jeff Foxworthy - You might be a bellcow if...

"If your jersey is green, but you don't play for the Jets or Packers ... you might be a bellcow."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I always looked at it more as “situational” than # of touches.

• gets between the tackles touches.
• gets the touches between the 20s
• stays on the field at GL/short yardage
• stays on the field for receiving downs
• rarely comes off except for a breather

Whether that’s 15 touches or 25, that’s a feature back.

 

[SoBeDad]

I always looked at it more as “situational” than # of touches.

• gets between the tackles touches.
• gets the touches between the 20s
• stays on the field at GL/short yardage
• stays on the field for receiving downs
• rarely comes off except for a breather

Whether that’s 15 touches or 25, that’s a feature back.

If a RB scores a lot of TDs, like Mostert, Achane, Montgomery, Gibbs, Edward's, 15 touches or less might be enought to be a top RB in fantasy.

A side track ... I'd be optimistic about Tua reaching 30+ TDs (he had 29 in 2023), since I doubt Miami has 27 rushing TDs in 2024 and they had 0 passing TDs to TEs in 2023.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A side track ... I'd be optimistic about Tua reaching 30+ TDs (he had 29 in 2023), since I doubt Miami has 27 rushing TDs in 2024 and they had 0 passing TDs to TEs in 2023.

And went out and added Jonnu & Fortson - both of whom could be good RZ threats with their size.

MIA was definitely lacking that last season.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I always looked at it more as “situational” than # of touches.

• gets between the tackles touches.
• gets the touches between the 20s
• stays on the field at GL/short yardage
• stays on the field for receiving downs
• rarely comes off except for a breather

Whether that’s 15 touches or 25, that’s a feature back.

This is a good way to think about it though I would not get too hung up on 2 and 5. I think that 1, 3 and 4 are probably the most important for stud fantasy RBs these days. If you want all 5, you probably are talking about less than 5 guys each year now. CMac and … I’m not even totally sure who else. Henry maybe though probably not anymore. Jacobs and ekeler might have qualified for a time. Saquon maybe. Kamara maybe. But I wouldn’t bank on any of them going forward.

The larger point being that volume of touches for backs is probably not nearly as important as it used to be

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Top 10 in touches last year

1.    Christian McCaffrey • SFO    339
2.    Rachaad White • TAM    336
3.    Travis Etienne • JAX    325
4.    Joe Mixon • CIN    309
5.    Derrick Henry • TEN    308
6.    Tony Pollard • DAL    307
7.    Breece Hall • NYJ    299
8.    Saquon Barkley • NYG    288
9.    Najee Harris • PIT    284
10.    James Cook • BUF    281

 

[TheWinz]

View it more as a percentage of touches then total touches and generally would have that around 70%.

Here are the percentages for the RB's who played at least 12 games in 2023 and had at least 70% of the team RB/FB touches in which they played:

1 - Saquon Barkley - 288 out of 342 = 84.2%
2 - Josh Jacobs - 270 out of 321 = 84.1%
3 - Joe Mixon - 309 out of 392 = 78.8%
4 - Kyren Williams - 260 out of 336 = 77.4%
5 - Travis Etienne - 325 out of 427 = 76.1%
6 - Rachaad White - 336 out of 442 = 76.0%
7 - Isiah Pacheco - 249 out of 336 = 74.1%
8 - James Conner - 235 out of 322 = 73.0%
9 - Christian McCaffrey - 339 out of 465 = 72.9%
10 - Alvin Kamara - 255 out of 364 = 70.1%

I like the list, and yes, would consider all 10 of these RB's as workhorses.

 

[markrc99]

Here are the percentages for the RB's who played at least 12 games in 2023 and had at least 70% of the team RB/FB touches in which they played:

1 - Saquon Barkley - 288 out of 342 = 84.2%
2 - Josh Jacobs - 270 out of 321 = 84.1%
3 - Joe Mixon - 309 out of 392 = 78.8%
4 - Kyren Williams - 260 out of 336 = 77.4%
5 - Travis Etienne - 325 out of 427 = 76.1%
6 - Rachaad White - 336 out of 442 = 76.0%
7 - Isiah Pacheco - 249 out of 336 = 74.1%
8 - James Conner - 235 out of 322 = 73.0%
9 - Christian McCaffrey - 339 out of 465 = 72.9%
10 - Alvin Kamara - 255 out of 364 = 70.1%

The level of confidence in CMC is in a place of its own. The others are all rather conservative picks off the top, but which of them are we less sure about? Henry didn't make that list, but love where he landed. Of the three there that changed teams, they all landed in a good spot. To me, it's Kyren Williams, ETN & Connor. James Cook isn't up there either, another sub-200lb RB who assumed the volume. Buffalo drafted Ray Davis for that reason but also to address the drop off. Could be wrong, but to me Williams is the same & won't be as high on that list next year. Love ETN but you have to wonder whether his left foot is junk. Perhaps it's just coincidence but he keeps sustaining injury to it.

James Connor, about where he's being drafted I'd take Brian Robinson jr. or even Zamir White. If back there & fortunate enough to be in a two-way go, I'd opt for Jayden Reed over him as well. I think Trey Benson represents the greatest threat Connor has faced to his control over the volume. With the Cardinals, not unlike the others, the volatility of the position & the drop off. Tyrone Tracy jr. in New York is interesting, converted WR with the gait of a rec'r & too high. But in unfavorable down & distance I think he'll have an excellent chance to get on the field, as opposed to Devin Singletary. He might also factor in the return game.

Given De'von Achane's breakout & the investment to get him, he's almost assuredly a late listing by someone in all three of my leagues. Had his believers right from the start & racked up nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards on just 130 touches. Accordingly, has an ADP of 19 in .5ppr. Quick, shifty & fast, his circus tape is a series of home runs or high off the wall stuff. However, very well schemed, a lot of misdirection & trickery that was also very well blocked. Averaged nearly 5 yards before contact, an outlier apart from only one other exception, Keaton Mitchell (5.2ybc). The drafting of Jaylen Wright, a complete non-factor. A potential league-winner in my leagues because of where team owners will be listing him. In redraft @19adp, hard to gauge.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Love ETN but you have to wonder whether his left foot is junk. Perhaps it's just coincidence but he keeps sustaining injury to it.

He does?

When did he hurt his foot since the Lisfranc?

 

[Biabreakable]

Travis Etienne Injury History & Updates

Travis Etienne Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

 

[Biabreakable]

That isn't complete as ETN did have a rib injury from game vs Texans. While he missed some time the rest of that game I believe he played through it, although perhaps not at the same level.

 

[markrc99]

He does? When did he hurt his foot since the Lisfranc?

The 1st source lists the initial injury, Aug. of '21 & then the surgery. But it mentions that he re-injured the same foot in Nov. '22. The 2nd source confirms that injury & notes that he didn't return to that game. The 3rd source mentions an ankle injury vs Pittsburgh ('23), we don't know which one. He exits the game but returns shortly thereafter. I've seen every run & catch from that game, the play I think he gets hurt on is one where he gets hit from the right side & rolled over another defender coming in from his left side. That last one is Doug Peterson recently saying they want to lean on him less. Now, some of this is due to watching De'Von Achane yesterday & then this guy. With Achane, the twitchy suddenness, the change of direction & speed, it's like night & day! Accordingly, .5ppr, ETDone is coming off boards in the back of 2nd? Often wrong, but I can't see it.

Travis Etienne Injury History & Updates- Latest News

Explore Travis Etienne’s injury history, including details on past injuries and how they've impacted his NFL career. Stay informed about his health status.

www.thefantasydoctors.com

Florida Times-Union: Local News, Politics & Sports in Jacksonville, FL

Get the latest breaking news, sports, entertainment and obituaries in ~city~, ~state~ from ~sitename~.

www.jacksonville.com

2022/11/27/jaguars-rb-travis-etienne-feels-fine-after-suffering-foot-injury/10787785002/

"The Jacksonville Jaguars offense took a blow against the Pittsburgh Steelers as running back Travis Etienne left early in the second half with an ankle injury."

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Suffers Ankle Injury vs. Steelers

The Jacksonville Jaguars lost a key piece to their offense against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

www.si.com

"Doug Pederson said during OTAs that the Jaguars want to lean on Etienne less during the 2024 campaign in order to keep him healthy, Michael DiRocco of ESPN reports."

Travis Etienne Jr. Inefficient after injury scare - Fantasy Football News

Etienne rushed 20 times for 56 yards while catching four of six targets for 30 yards in Sunday's 24-21 win over the Texans.

www.thefantasyfootballers.com

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Etienne left early in the second half with an ankle injury."

Ankles =/= feet

 

[TheWinz]

For all the talk of ETN's ankles/feet/ribs/etc. ETN was 2nd in total snaps only to Rachaad White in 2023. He played at least 60% of the offensive snaps in every Jags game. You know what other RB's did that last year? Once again, only Rachaad White. As far as that clip from 2 posts above by @markrc99 that talks about ETN leaving early in the 2nd half vs PIT with an ankle injury, it's completely bogus. The clip fails to mention ETN returned shortly thereafter and finished the game with 27 touches for 149 yards and a TD. Tank and D'Ernest combined for 9 snaps/5 carries/17 yards and no targets, while ETN played 63 snaps. That clip is clickbait, and makes it sound like ETN didn't return to the game. He did return, and JAX won. The clip just above it that talks about ETN feeling fine after suffering a foot injury. First, I don't know about others, but I get a page not found error message when I click on it. Second, obviously he did feel fine after his foot injury, played in all 17 games, and was 11th in RB snaps in 2022.

Why are we even talking about a guys lingering issues when he's played EVERY game for the last 2 seasons? Below are the only other RB's in the NFL that have played the last 2 full seasons with at least 600 snaps each season:

 

[markrc99]

For all the talk of ETN's ankles/feet/ribs/etc. ETN was 2nd in total snaps only to Rachaad White in 2023. He played at least 60% of the offensive snaps in every Jags game. You know what other RB's did that last year? Once again, only Rachaad White. As far as that clip from 2 posts above by @markrc99 that talks about ETN leaving early in the 2nd half vs PIT with an ankle injury, it's completely bogus. The clip fails to mention ETN returned shortly thereafter and finished the game with 27 touches for 149 yards and a TD.... That clip is clickbait, and makes it sound like ETN didn't return to the game. He did return, and JAX won. The clip just above it that talks about ETN feeling fine after suffering a foot injury. First, I don't know about others, but I get a page not found error message when I click on it. Second, obviously he did feel fine after his foot injury, played in all 17 games, and was 11th in RB snaps in 2022.

Why are we even talking about a guys lingering issues when he's played EVERY game for the last 2 seasons? Below are the only other RB's in the NFL that have played the last 2 full seasons with at least 600 snaps each season:

I in fact did say that after Etienne exited from the game he returned shortly thereafter. The other link I added messed up when I tried to highlight the date of the article. You see the front side of the url loaded but the latter portion is there below it. Here it is: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/...fine-after-suffering-foot-injury/10787785002/

Point being, the counter I interpreted to suggest that ETN sustained the injury, had the surgery, but it hasn't been an issue since. But we see evidence to the contrary. That initial source I cited mentioned concussion, here's what I found related to that:

"Clemson [RB] Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report. Etienne... returned to the game in the third quarter. ESPN reported during the television broadcast that Etienne was staggering and struggling to walk in a straight line after a play in the first half."

Clemson running back Travis Etienne returns to game after brief exit

Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report.

www.usatoday.com

That last part that I bolded, is that true? That initial source I cited noted that he had sustained a concussion. Under "Details" it says "Traumatic brain injury". That he went back into the game, howTF did that even happen? In the game vs Pittsburgh he had a 56 yd TD reception. They lined him up out wide, somewhere he has no business being. The CB accountable for him just cuts him loose. The safety rolling over in support takes an angle you wouldn't otherwise see. Telling, to me, is that when the CB realizes Lawrence is looking for ETN, he does turn & gets on his horse then. No, too late, he doesn't get there in time but what you can see is how easily that DB ran him down!

That this player has successfully carried the load the last two years doesn't mean the wear & tear hasn't taken a toll or even what the team intended. In fact, we know it wasn't their plan, nor is it what they want to do this year.

 

[TheWinz]

For all the talk of ETN's ankles/feet/ribs/etc. ETN was 2nd in total snaps only to Rachaad White in 2023. He played at least 60% of the offensive snaps in every Jags game. You know what other RB's did that last year? Once again, only Rachaad White. As far as that clip from 2 posts above by @markrc99 that talks about ETN leaving early in the 2nd half vs PIT with an ankle injury, it's completely bogus. The clip fails to mention ETN returned shortly thereafter and finished the game with 27 touches for 149 yards and a TD.... That clip is clickbait, and makes it sound like ETN didn't return to the game. He did return, and JAX won. The clip just above it that talks about ETN feeling fine after suffering a foot injury. First, I don't know about others, but I get a page not found error message when I click on it. Second, obviously he did feel fine after his foot injury, played in all 17 games, and was 11th in RB snaps in 2022.

Why are we even talking about a guys lingering issues when he's played EVERY game for the last 2 seasons? Below are the only other RB's in the NFL that have played the last 2 full seasons with at least 600 snaps each season:

I in fact did say that after Etienne exited from the game he returned shortly thereafter. The other link I added messed up when I tried to highlight the date of the article. You see the front side of the url loaded but the latter portion is there below it. Here it is: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/...fine-after-suffering-foot-injury/10787785002/

Point being, the counter I interpreted to suggest that ETN sustained the injury, had the surgery, but it hasn't been an issue since. But we see evidence to the contrary. That initial source I cited mentioned concussion, here's what I found related to that:

"Clemson [RB] Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report. Etienne... returned to the game in the third quarter. ESPN reported during the television broadcast that Etienne was staggering and struggling to walk in a straight line after a play in the first half."

Clemson running back Travis Etienne returns to game after brief exit

Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report.

www.usatoday.com

That last part that I bolded, is that true? That initial source I cited noted that he had sustained a concussion. Under "Details" it says "Traumatic brain injury". That he went back into the game, howTF did that even happen? In the game vs Pittsburgh he had a 56 yd TD reception. They lined him up out wide, somewhere he has no business being. The CB accountable for him just cuts him loose. The safety rolling over in support takes an angle you wouldn't otherwise see. Telling, to me, is that when the CB realizes Lawrence is looking for ETN, he does turn & gets on his horse then. No, too late, he doesn't get there in time but what you can see is how easily that DB ran him down!

That this player has successfully carried the load the last two years doesn't mean the wear & tear hasn't taken a toll or even what the team intended. In fact, we know it wasn't their plan, nor is it what they want to do this year.

I'm just saying mentioning any injury history for a RB who has played in 34 straight games is comical. As for his 56-yard TD catch, you say he has no business lining up out wide? He is a good receiving RB, and was 6th among RB's in catches last year. Would you also say every RB has no business lining up out wide, or just ETN? Then you say a DB easily ran him down, but: First - ETN did score, and slowed down to hold the ball with 2 hands at around the 2-yard line. Second - ETN is 5'10" and 215 pounds. The guy chasing him was Joey Porter, who is 6'2" and 195 pounds. Joey is also 2 years younger. Third - and most important - when Joey realized he was screwed, he got on his horse and was already running at full speed when ETN caught the ball. Here is the video of the TD, if you want to look again - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCiRdfQ0CsY

As for your last 2 sentences, every team says they want to limit their workhorses, but that is just coachspeak. It happens every year. Heck, it happens every game. Have you ever heard a coach say they wanted to run their stud into the ground? As far as carrying the load successfully the last 2 years, you say it like it's a bad thing. Would you rather have him carry the load unsuccessfully? Every snap is wear and tear. If I asked you to pick your RB1 for 2024, it's very likely you would choose a player who is 2.5 years older, and who has 3 times the NFL touches that ETN has.

Last year, ETN was a workhorse with backups Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson as the only other RB's who had carries. They combined for 91/240, which was more than a full yard lower than ETN. Also, they combined for only 11 catches. The only other RB on the roster was JaMycal Hasty, and he only played 6 snaps with no touches. After having to rely so heavily on ETN in 2023, and knowing it's not their plan to do so again in 2024, how did they shake up their RB corps? Very little. They still have Bigsby & Johnson, and drafted a 190-lb RB after 13 other teams took a RB. They also added 2 undrafted free agents - Lorenzo Lingard, a 25-year old rookie who spent 5 years in college and had only 46 touches in his first 4 years, then transferred to crappy Akron in the crappy Mid-American Conference in 2023 so he could get some touches, and Jalen Jackson, who is listed as last on the depth chart and will likely be cut. Who on this list is a threat to do anything except give ETN a breather?

 

[Biabreakable]

For all the talk of ETN's ankles/feet/ribs/etc. ETN was 2nd in total snaps only to Rachaad White in 2023. He played at least 60% of the offensive snaps in every Jags game. You know what other RB's did that last year? Once again, only Rachaad White. As far as that clip from 2 posts above by @markrc99 that talks about ETN leaving early in the 2nd half vs PIT with an ankle injury, it's completely bogus. The clip fails to mention ETN returned shortly thereafter and finished the game with 27 touches for 149 yards and a TD.... That clip is clickbait, and makes it sound like ETN didn't return to the game. He did return, and JAX won. The clip just above it that talks about ETN feeling fine after suffering a foot injury. First, I don't know about others, but I get a page not found error message when I click on it. Second, obviously he did feel fine after his foot injury, played in all 17 games, and was 11th in RB snaps in 2022.

Why are we even talking about a guys lingering issues when he's played EVERY game for the last 2 seasons? Below are the only other RB's in the NFL that have played the last 2 full seasons with at least 600 snaps each season:

I in fact did say that after Etienne exited from the game he returned shortly thereafter. The other link I added messed up when I tried to highlight the date of the article. You see the front side of the url loaded but the latter portion is there below it. Here it is: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/...fine-after-suffering-foot-injury/10787785002/

Point being, the counter I interpreted to suggest that ETN sustained the injury, had the surgery, but it hasn't been an issue since. But we see evidence to the contrary. That initial source I cited mentioned concussion, here's what I found related to that:

"Clemson [RB] Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report. Etienne... returned to the game in the third quarter. ESPN reported during the television broadcast that Etienne was staggering and struggling to walk in a straight line after a play in the first half."

Clemson running back Travis Etienne returns to game after brief exit

Travis Etienne briefly left Monday night's Sugar Bowl against Alabama in the second quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion, according to an ESPN report.

www.usatoday.com

That last part that I bolded, is that true? That initial source I cited noted that he had sustained a concussion. Under "Details" it says "Traumatic brain injury". That he went back into the game, howTF did that even happen? In the game vs Pittsburgh he had a 56 yd TD reception. They lined him up out wide, somewhere he has no business being. The CB accountable for him just cuts him loose. The safety rolling over in support takes an angle you wouldn't otherwise see. Telling, to me, is that when the CB realizes Lawrence is looking for ETN, he does turn & gets on his horse then. No, too late, he doesn't get there in time but what you can see is how easily that DB ran him down!

That this player has successfully carried the load the last two years doesn't mean the wear & tear hasn't taken a toll or even what the team intended. In fact, we know it wasn't their plan, nor is it what they want to do this year.

This all sounds a bit chicken little to me.

RBs get hurt.

 

[Biabreakable]

In regards to the OP I would be looking for RB who get 250 touches in 17 games or about 15 per game.

Some other good ideas presented here as far as snap counts and percentage of RB touches.

For fantasy if 15 per game is the average at 5 yards per touch that's 75 yards per game or about 1300 over the course of 17 games.

Given the interesting fact that only 2 RB have had 1400 yards in a season recently it seems like what you are looking for although some RB could be an exception to that such as Achane.

5 yards per touch isn't very much and plenty of RB exceed that.

 

[Skipdog77]

I'd like to petition to ban the use of the term "bellcow" when describing a RB.

'Bellcow' and 'dumpster fire' need to be removed from the FF lexicon.

 

[markrc99]

Perhaps better an opinion for ETN dynasty owners. With a player's performance comes any number of explanations. No need to overthink it dude, a broken forearm, a hamstring... a massive crack to the skull causing obvious brain trauma, hey, guys get hurt. You can substitute traumatic brain injury with grade-3 LisFranc injury & still be talking about the same player. I have it that how a player is hurt & the type of injury are definite factors.

"... His streak [10 or more carries] ended during Week 12 where the Jaguars cautiously ended his day after he suffered a left foot sprain. ... The typical cause of foot sprains or Lisfranc injuries are contact injuries where the foot experiences a loaded force with the foot pointed downward and slightly rotated. This is what happened to Etienne during Week 12 and occurred earlier in the season against the Colts in Week 6. Late in the Week 6 matchup, Etienne was tackled and subtly limped off the field. He finished the game and has had no apparent issues since..." https://www.the33rdteam.com/is-travis-etiennes-foot-injury-a-long-term-concern/

The article above, that same instance in late November of '22 has been discussed several times. This source notes that ETN was cleared to return but the coaching staff "cautiously ended his day". Also cited is yet another instance, six weeks before that, where he limps off the field only to return w/o any apparent issue. What is happening exactly? I'm not an expert on the subject but my understanding is that even when the surgery & rehab go smoothly, long term effects are common. Not unusual for the bone to pop out of joint. Could be, then he goes off the field, the trainer(s) pop it back into joint & back out he goes.

I've read that a player's movement can change, his natural gait, altered. Etienne is the subject of his fair share of sell high advice. Way too many red flags to consider in the mid-to-late 2nd rd.

"LisFranc injuries can have long term effects on your foot. ... it is common to have some persistent pain, stiffness, and weakness. This can happen even after a surgery and healing period that goes perfectly."

LisFranc Injury

Physical Therapy Videos - Foot & Ankle Basic Anatomy A "LisFranc" injury is an injury to the joint between the long bones in the foot (metatarsals) and the bones they connect to (tarsal bones). This injury can affect the ligaments (soft tissue that connects bone to bone) of these bones and/or...

ota.org

“Overall, NFL players started fewer games two and three seasons following surgery and showed a significant decline in performance one season after return compared with pre-injury levels,” the report stated. “Offensive players had a significantly greater decline in statistical performance..."

How Jaguars’ Travis Etienne rediscovered his love for football following lost rookie season

Jacksonville Jaguars Travis Etienne is fit and ready for a breakout season after missing his entire rookie year with a significant foot injury.

www.profootballnetwork.com

 

[Biabreakable]

Perhaps better an opinion for ETN dynasty owners. With a player's performance comes any number of explanations. No need to overthink it dude, a broken forearm, a hamstring... a massive crack to the skull causing obvious brain trauma, hey, guys get hurt. You can substitute traumatic brain injury with grade-3 LisFranc injury & still be talking about the same player. I have it that how a player is hurt & the type of injury are definite factors.

"... His streak [10 or more carries] ended during Week 12 where the Jaguars cautiously ended his day after he suffered a left foot sprain. ... The typical cause of foot sprains or Lisfranc injuries are contact injuries where the foot experiences a loaded force with the foot pointed downward and slightly rotated. This is what happened to Etienne during Week 12 and occurred earlier in the season against the Colts in Week 6. Late in the Week 6 matchup, Etienne was tackled and subtly limped off the field. He finished the game and has had no apparent issues since..." https://www.the33rdteam.com/is-travis-etiennes-foot-injury-a-long-term-concern/

The article above, that same instance in late November of '22 has been discussed several times. This source notes that ETN was cleared to return but the coaching staff "cautiously ended his day". Also cited is yet another instance, six weeks before that, where he limps off the field only to return w/o any apparent issue. What is happening exactly? I'm not an expert on the subject but my understanding is that even when the surgery & rehab go smoothly, long term effects are common. Not unusual for the bone to pop out of joint. Could be, then he goes off the field, the trainer(s) pop it back into joint & back out he goes.

I've read that a player's movement can change, his natural gait, altered. Etienne is the subject of his fair share of sell high advice. Way too many red flags to consider in the mid-to-late 2nd rd.

"LisFranc injuries can have long term effects on your foot. ... it is common to have some persistent pain, stiffness, and weakness. This can happen even after a surgery and healing period that goes perfectly."

LisFranc Injury

Physical Therapy Videos - Foot & Ankle Basic Anatomy A "LisFranc" injury is an injury to the joint between the long bones in the foot (metatarsals) and the bones they connect to (tarsal bones). This injury can affect the ligaments (soft tissue that connects bone to bone) of these bones and/or...

ota.org

“Overall, NFL players started fewer games two and three seasons following surgery and showed a significant decline in performance one season after return compared with pre-injury levels,” the report stated. “Offensive players had a significantly greater decline in statistical performance..."

How Jaguars’ Travis Etienne rediscovered his love for football following lost rookie season

Jacksonville Jaguars Travis Etienne is fit and ready for a breakout season after missing his entire rookie year with a significant foot injury.

www.profootballnetwork.com

Ok. The article you are citing from September 2022

The cautions here are that ETN (or any player with this injury might play fewer games than previous season and may not perform as high as previous level the year following the injury.

Well ETN didn't have a year of previous performance to measure this by.

He did play in 17 games so that rules out that concern.

He touched the ball 255 times in 2022 for over 1400 combined yards and 5 yards per carry.

I don't see anything talking about this as an issue in 2023 and based on his performance in 2022 I would think he is fully recovered from it.

 

[markrc99]

Ok. The article you are citing from September 2022. The cautions here are that ETN (or any player with this injury might play fewer games than previous season and may not perform as high as previous level the year following the injury. Well ETN didn't have a year of previous performance to measure this by. He did play in 17 games so that rules out that concern. He touched the ball 255 times in 2022 for over 1400 combined yards and 5 yards per carry. I don't see anything talking about this as an issue in 2023 and based on his performance in 2022 I would think he is fully recovered from it.

The article you mention emphasizes two & three years out. Then it says a decline in performance the season after returning, meaning year two. As you say, there isn't any pre-injury comparable. For Etienne year two was last year & it can be argued that his performance did decline compared to '22. He went from 5.1ypc down to 3.8. Accordingly, his avg. number of defenders in the box of 6.5 ranked 56th. His light-front-carry-rate of 59.2% was the 5th highest, so a lot of looks vs light fronts. Injury along the OL was mentioned. Citing fantasylife.com, his yards before contact (ybc) was 2.3 this past year. Which was 21st among the 25 RBs who had at least 180 carries. But in 2022, his 3.4ybc ranked 1st in the league!

Owners can tell themselves ETN's '23 performance was more about the OL & '22 all about him, but it's not particularly convincing. To me, those targeting him in the 2nd rd may want to consider adding Bigsby late.

"... [Bigsby] played 12 percent of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offensive snaps. Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor doesn’t think that was enough, and he’s not blaming Bigsby for his lack of playing time in 2023. Taylor said he had regrets over how Jacksonville used Bigsby during his rookie season. ... I think Tank’s in a great head space in terms of where he goes into Year 2, and we’re looking to get the most out of him as well.”

Tank Bigsby should have played more in 2023, Jaguars OC says

Jacksonville is “looking to get the most out of” the former Auburn running back after he had 50 rushing attempts last season.

www.al.com

 

[zamboni]

There's another separate thread for ETN.

As for the OP, I agree it's probably more of a % of RB touches that dictates a "bellcow" - the absolute number is irrelevant nowadays with the overall shift on offense to the passing game. Not sure what % applies, but around 75% seems reasonable as a barometer given the rampant use of some form of RBBC these days.

 

[TheWinz]

There's another separate thread for ETN.

As for the OP, I agree it's probably more of a % of RB touches that dictates a "bellcow" - the absolute number is irrelevant nowadays with the overall shift on offense to the passing game. Not sure what % applies, but around 75% seems reasonable as a barometer given the rampant use of some form of RBBC these days.

Agreed. I think it's about % as well. I started the thread by asking for a number of touches, but really, the % of the team touches is a much better measuring stick. My threshold is closer to 70% than 75%. Fun fact - in 1978, Walter Payton had 383 touches, but that was only 56.99% of the Bears RB touches. His backup, Roland Harper had 283 touches, good enough for 42.11%, but would have been top 10 in touches for 2023. How times have changed.

 

[zamboni]

Fun fact - in 1978, Walter Payton had 383 touches, but that was only 56.99% of the Bears RB touches. His backup, Roland Harper had 283 touches, good enough for 42.11%, but would have been top 10 in touches for 2023.

That's a wild stat, but probably not that uncommon back in those days. As a brief aside, that explains in some part why the Bears have never had a 4000 yard passing season by a QB. Their QB history obviously isn't strong, but they have always been a very run heavy team. We'll see if Caleb changes that narrative.

Back to the discussion though...

 

[miqws]

Bellcow to me is that you pick your guy and then you can defer getting a RB2. For a different angle, here is a look at the difference of RB redraft rankings within a team. The theory here is that a bell cow will have a high ranking and the next guy up has a low ranking. The top differences via fantasypros are below - I stopped at RB24. I like Jacobs, Stevenson, and Harris at their values. Hull looks very interesting to me as a cheap handcuff.

77 Taylor (4) Hull (81)
64 Hall (2) Allen (66)
63 Etienne (8) Bigsby (71)
58 Pacheco (10) Edwards-Helaire (68)
56 Barkley (6) Gainwell (62)
53 McCaffrey (1) Mitchell (54)
51 R. White (12) Irving (63)
48 Henry (9) Mitchell (57)
45 Mixon (14) Pierce (59)
44 Robinson (3) Allgeier (47)
43 Jacobs (11) Lloyd (53)
40 Cook (15) Davis (55)
36 Williams (7) Corum (43)
36 Z. White (22) Mattison (58)
31 Kamara (17) Miller (48)
27 Jones (18) Chandler (45)
26 Swift (23) Herbert (49)
24 Walker III (16) Charbonnet (40)
24 Stevenson (20) Gibson (44)
18 Conner (21) Benson (39)
14 Gibbs (5) Montgomery (19)
13 Achane (13) Mostert (26)
4 Harris (24) Warren (28)

 

[Biabreakable]

Ok. The article you are citing from September 2022. The cautions here are that ETN (or any player with this injury might play fewer games than previous season and may not perform as high as previous level the year following the injury. Well ETN didn't have a year of previous performance to measure this by. He did play in 17 games so that rules out that concern. He touched the ball 255 times in 2022 for over 1400 combined yards and 5 yards per carry. I don't see anything talking about this as an issue in 2023 and based on his performance in 2022 I would think he is fully recovered from it.

The article you mention emphasizes two & three years out. Then it says a decline in performance the season after returning, meaning year two. As you say, there isn't any pre-injury comparable. For Etienne year two was last year & it can be argued that his performance did decline compared to '22. He went from 5.1ypc down to 3.8. Accordingly, his avg. number of defenders in the box of 6.5 ranked 56th. His light-front-carry-rate of 59.2% was the 5th highest, so a lot of looks vs light fronts. Injury along the OL was mentioned. Citing fantasylife.com, his yards before contact (ybc) was 2.3 this past year. Which was 21st among the 25 RBs who had at least 180 carries. But in 2022, his 3.4ybc ranked 1st in the league!

Owners can tell themselves ETN's '23 performance was more about the OL & '22 all about him, but it's not particularly convincing. To me, those targeting him in the 2nd rd may want to consider adding Bigsby late.

"... [Bigsby] played 12 percent of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offensive snaps. Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor doesn’t think that was enough, and he’s not blaming Bigsby for his lack of playing time in 2023. Taylor said he had regrets over how Jacksonville used Bigsby during his rookie season. ... I think Tank’s in a great head space in terms of where he goes into Year 2, and we’re looking to get the most out of him as well.”

Tank Bigsby should have played more in 2023, Jaguars OC says

Jacksonville is “looking to get the most out of” the former Auburn running back after he had 50 rushing attempts last season.

www.al.com

This isn't the way I interpreted what they were saying and it makes zero sense to say it had an effect 2 and 3 years after the injury but not the 1st year back. Does it?

Yes some of these injuries are life changing and the players will be dealing with that for the rest of their lives, but I don't see a reason to say ETN was fine in 2022 but that it affected him in 2023.

Also in the article you cite a different study was done that found no statistical significance at all.

So yes I think you are barking up the wrong tree here.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Interesting article on RB usage:

Fantasy Football: Examining team running back usage and tendencies for 2024

Jon Macri examines team running back usage and tendencies for 2024.

www.pff.com

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Given the interesting fact that only 2 RB have had 1400 yards in a season recently it seems like what you are looking for although some RB could be an exception to that such as Achane.

.

seems like you are talking about rushing yards only?

If so, shouldn’t totally yards be the key metric.

As an aside, Looking at the numbers, breece hall was number 2 in total yards among rbs last year

 

[TheWinz]

Given the interesting fact that only 2 RB have had 1400 yards in a season recently it seems like what you are looking for although some RB could be an exception to that such as Achane.

.

seems like you are talking about rushing yards only?

If so, shouldn’t totally yards be the key metric.

As an aside, Looking at the numbers, breece hall was number 2 in total yards among rbs last year

Honestly, I don't know what @Biabreakable is referring to when he mentions 1400 yards. If he is just talking about rushing, 1 did it last year (CMC), and 3 did it in 2022 (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb). Perhaps he is saying only CMC and ETN have 1400 total yards in each of the last 2 seasons? That is a true statement.

 

[markrc99]

This isn't the way I interpreted what they were saying and it makes zero sense to say it had an effect 2 and 3 years after the injury but not the 1st year back. Does it? Yes some of these injuries are life changing and the players will be dealing with that for the rest of their lives, but I don't see a reason to say ETN was fine in 2022 but that it affected him in 2023. Also in the article you cite a different study was done that found no statistical significance at all. So yes I think you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I'm not a medical expert, I'm just referencing medical literature. That which has me questioning whether ETN sees 300+ touches & if drafting his ceiling in the 2nd round is a good idea. I understand the points you make about the study, but if they meant there's a decline in performance the same year a player returns, it should've just said as much. That is not what it says! You also didn't consider the consistency there in the initial part of the sentence. It's says: "NFL players started fewer games two and three seasons following surgery..." Everyone agrees, Etienne didn't miss two seasons, he returned one season after surgery!

The literature does suggest a degenerative aspect. No matter how well the surgery & rehab, the player can still experience all sorts of problems. Not unusual that he may require a subsequent procedure. I did read the part about the other study that yielded less than concerning results. But it was conducted by the same organization & no explanation presented for the conflicting outcome. Thus, my thought at the time was, given that there are three grades of severity pertaining to this injury, that is likely the difference between the two studies. Other material was sourced corroborating that a grade three Lisfranc injury, that which requires surgery, is a serious injury.

"His rookie year was cut short... with Etienne sustaining a season-ending Lisfranc injury against the New Orlean Saints on a non-contact play." https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news...s-his-recovery-status-entering-2022-offseason

Oh my, more yum. He sustained this injury vs air, not some freak thing where a big honker landed on him. Accordingly, what happens is the player plants on the ball of his foot, likely attempting to redirect because the foot is also rotating at the same time. Just so happens that Etienne is severely duck-footed. Which has meant what to this point, oh, nothing is all. Just speculating, but if the natural tendency is to plant the foot outwardly but you need to pivot in the opposite direction, it would seem to greater necessitate the rotation that exacerbates the stress placed upon the bridge of the foot.

 

[Biabreakable]

Given the interesting fact that only 2 RB have had 1400 yards in a season recently it seems like what you are looking for although some RB could be an exception to that such as Achane.

.

seems like you are talking about rushing yards only?

If so, shouldn’t totally yards be the key metric.

As an aside, Looking at the numbers, breece hall was number 2 in total yards among rbs last year

I was talking about total yards and yards per touch not just rushing yards.

I usually consider TD separately for projections yes. They are less sticky than yards.

This topic of RB touches is about opportunity and TD opportunity/effectiveness is a part of that, but for my general statement my focus was just on touches and yards.

For projections I would then look at the team and player history to find a baseline for the TD after touches.

The article posted by Leroy Hoard is an interesting one to consider as far as figuring out expected pie for RB for each team.

 

[Biabreakable]

Given the interesting fact that only 2 RB have had 1400 yards in a season recently it seems like what you are looking for although some RB could be an exception to that such as Achane.

.

seems like you are talking about rushing yards only?

If so, shouldn’t totally yards be the key metric.

As an aside, Looking at the numbers, breece hall was number 2 in total yards among rbs last year

Honestly, I don't know what @Biabreakable is referring to when he mentions 1400 yards. If he is just talking about rushing, 1 did it last year (CMC), and 3 did it in 2022 (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb). Perhaps he is saying only CMC and ETN have 1400 total yards in each of the last 2 seasons? That is a true statement.

Yeah sorry just something I read upthread or somewhere else but didn't look up.

There were 10 RB in 2023 who had over 1300 combined yards. 13 in 2022.

2023 NFL Scrimmage Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2023 NFL Scrimmage Stats Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[Biabreakable]

This isn't the way I interpreted what they were saying and it makes zero sense to say it had an effect 2 and 3 years after the injury but not the 1st year back. Does it? Yes some of these injuries are life changing and the players will be dealing with that for the rest of their lives, but I don't see a reason to say ETN was fine in 2022 but that it affected him in 2023. Also in the article you cite a different study was done that found no statistical significance at all. So yes I think you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I'm not a medical expert, I'm just referencing medical literature. That which has me questioning whether ETN sees 300+ touches & if drafting his ceiling in the 2nd round is a good idea. I understand the points you make about the study, but if they meant there's a decline in performance the same year a player returns, it should've just said as much. That is not what it says! You also didn't consider the consistency there in the initial part of the sentence. It's says: "NFL players started fewer games two and three seasons following surgery..." Everyone agrees, Etienne didn't miss two seasons, he returned one season after surgery!

The literature does suggest a degenerative aspect. No matter how well the surgery & rehab, the player can still experience all sorts of problems. Not unusual that he may require a subsequent procedure. I did read the part about the other study that yielded less than concerning results. But it was conducted by the same organization & no explanation presented for the conflicting outcome. Thus, my thought at the time was, given that there are three grades of severity pertaining to this injury, that is likely the difference between the two studies. Other material was sourced corroborating that a grade three Lisfranc injury, that which requires surgery, is a serious injury.

"His rookie year was cut short... with Etienne sustaining a season-ending Lisfranc injury against the New Orlean Saints on a non-contact play." https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news...s-his-recovery-status-entering-2022-offseason

Oh my, more yum. He sustained this injury vs air, not some freak thing where a big honker landed on him. Accordingly, what happens is the player plants on the ball of his foot, likely attempting to redirect because the foot is also rotating at the same time. Just so happens that Etienne is severely duck-footed. Which has meant what to this point, oh, nothing is all. Just speculating, but if the natural tendency is to plant the foot outwardly but you need to pivot in the opposite direction, it would seem to greater necessitate the rotation that exacerbates the stress placed upon the bridge of the foot.

I am not a medical expert either but I do know some things about statistical analysis and the article is citing they found a small number of players in the NFL who had the injury and they don't provide the full list of these players for us to cross check the results with, but I am guessing many of these players were at later stages of their careers than ETN as a rookie.

We know that younger players tend to recover better from injuries than older ones do. When the measurement is number of games played by the player, these older players may have played fewer games for other reasons than just the injury.

It seems somewhat anomalous for players to have fewer number of games 2 and 3 seasons removed from the injury than the 1st season. This is unlike recovery information for ACL and other injuries where the 1st year back from the injury the player may not be as fully healthy as they are 2 years after it.

It's just common sense that the 1st year after recovery should be the most difficult, not the 2nd and 3rd year.

Regardless ETN has not missed any games. So he passed the year 2 test.

 

[markrc99]

"... the article is citing they found a small number of players in the NFL who had the injury and they don't provide the full list of these players for us to cross check the results with, but I am guessing many of these players were at later stages of their careers than ETN as a rookie."

Accordingly, OL made up the larger percentage, then RB. Offensive players experienced greater decline than defensive players. Currently, one guy who was a high draft pick & hasn't found his game is Rashod Bateman. ETN is a younger player but one with a lot of mileage. There's no doubt he remains the lead 'back, I'm not as sure as others that he's that high on the volume list next year. I also mentioned Kyren Williams & James Connor, same thing, I don't think either of them hogs it all again either.

Below is every touch Etienne had week one vs the Colts last year. If I were an owner I'd try to move this player, or at the very least, attain Tank Bigsby. I'm seeing a ball-carrier that'll get you what's there. Again, one of the highest carry rates vs lighter fronts, yet, managed only 3.8yds per.

Travis Etienne Every Run and Catch @ Indianapolis Colts | 2023 Week 1 | Fantasy Football Film

Travis Etienne RB Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 1 @ Indianapolis ColtsRushing: 18 carries, 77 yards, 1 touchdownReceiving: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 27 yards0...

www.youtube.com

 

[Biabreakable]

"... the article is citing they found a small number of players in the NFL who had the injury and they don't provide the full list of these players for us to cross check the results with, but I am guessing many of these players were at later stages of their careers than ETN as a rookie."

Accordingly, OL made up the larger percentage, then RB. Offensive players experienced greater decline than defensive players. Currently, one guy who was a high draft pick & hasn't found his game is Rashod Bateman. ETN is a younger player but one with a lot of mileage. There's no doubt he remains the lead 'back, I'm not as sure as others that he's that high on the volume list next year. I also mentioned Kyren Williams & James Connor, same thing, I don't think either of them hogs it all again either.

Below is every touch Etienne had week one vs the Colts last year. If I were an owner I'd try to move this player, or at the very least, attain Tank Bigsby. I'm seeing a ball-carrier that'll get you what's there. Again, one of the highest carry rates vs lighter fronts, yet, managed only 3.8yds per.

Travis Etienne Every Run and Catch @ Indianapolis Colts | 2023 Week 1 | Fantasy Football Film

Travis Etienne RB Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 1 @ Indianapolis ColtsRushing: 18 carries, 77 yards, 1 touchdownReceiving: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 27 yards0...

www.youtube.com

Yards per carry over a small sample size isn't very meaningful. Using ETNs career ypc is a better sample.

Bigsby sucks.

 

[TheWinz]

"... the article is citing they found a small number of players in the NFL who had the injury and they don't provide the full list of these players for us to cross check the results with, but I am guessing many of these players were at later stages of their careers than ETN as a rookie."

Accordingly, OL made up the larger percentage, then RB. Offensive players experienced greater decline than defensive players. Currently, one guy who was a high draft pick & hasn't found his game is Rashod Bateman. ETN is a younger player but one with a lot of mileage. There's no doubt he remains the lead 'back, I'm not as sure as others that he's that high on the volume list next year. I also mentioned Kyren Williams & James Connor, same thing, I don't think either of them hogs it all again either.

Below is every touch Etienne had week one vs the Colts last year. If I were an owner I'd try to move this player, or at the very least, attain Tank Bigsby. I'm seeing a ball-carrier that'll get you what's there. Again, one of the highest carry rates vs lighter fronts, yet, managed only 3.8yds per.

Travis Etienne Every Run and Catch @ Indianapolis Colts | 2023 Week 1 | Fantasy Football Film

Travis Etienne RB Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 1 @ Indianapolis ColtsRushing: 18 carries, 77 yards, 1 touchdownReceiving: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 27 yards0...

www.youtube.com

A few things...

First, you say ETN has alot of mileage. When did he get this mileage? Last year? Sure, he had 325 touches, and I will say that's alot for a single season. He ranked 3rd among RB's. The year before? He had 255 touches, and ranked 16th, making him a middle-of-the-pack starting RB. The year before that he was injured in preseason and missed the whole year. Again, I ask, when did he get this mileage?

Second, you said you don't think he'll be that high on the volume list in 2024? Well, considering he was 3rd overall, that's not a bold prediction. Actually, he was only 7th in terms of touches per game, but you can't fault him for staying healthy enough to play in all 17 games, can you?

Third, you mentioned handcuffing ETN by going after Bigsby. Many owners already do this, if there are adequate bench spots in your league. But if there are not, why would anyone waste a roster spot on Bigsby? You call out ETN's 3.8 YPC and say it sucks, but I see you conveniently left off Bigsby's number. It was 2.6 YPC. Of all 67 RB's in the league last year with at least 50 carries, Bigsby was dead last. Before you call out ETN's YPC, you may want to compare it with the other JAX RB's last year. 3.8 looks pretty good when the other 2 backups both had 2.6.

Fourth, ETN finished that IND game with 23 touches for 104 yards and a TD, making him RB6 for week 1. ETN ran 18 times for 77 yards, while Bigsby ran 7 times for 13 yards. If ETN is only "getting what's there" as you said, what is Bigsby getting? Less than what's there?

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I have no idea why D'Ernest Johnson isn't a hotter commodity. He's not some uber talent but .. Bigsby stinks. So if anything happens to Etienne (per discussion above slightly above average odds), Bigsby might be given a chance but Johnson will end up with the job. He excelled in his opportunity two years ago in Cleveland. My son rostered him and kicked my butt that week.

Back to bellcow usage discussion I guess.

2024 Bellcows/ Anticipated: CMC, Breece, JT, Bijan, Barkley

Maybe/ Probably: Henry, Mixon, Pacheco, Rachaad White

 

[markrc99]

A few things...

First, you say ETN has alot of mileage. When did he get this mileage? Last year? Sure, he had 325 touches, and I will say that's alot for a single season. He ranked 3rd among RB's. The year before? He had 255 touches, and ranked 16th, making him a middle-of-the-pack starting RB. The year before that he was injured in preseason and missed the whole year. Again, I ask, when did he get this mileage?

Second, you said you don't think he'll be that high on the volume list in 2024? Well, considering he was 3rd overall, that's not a bold prediction. Actually, he was only 7th in terms of touches per game, but you can't fault him for staying healthy enough to play in all 17 games, can you?

Third, you mentioned handcuffing ETN by going after Bigsby. Many owners already do this, if there are adequate bench spots in your league. But if there are not, why would anyone waste a roster spot on Bigsby? You call out ETN's 3.8 YPC and say it sucks, but I see you conveniently left off Bigsby's number. It was 2.6 YPC. Of all 67 RB's in the league last year with at least 50 carries, Bigsby was dead last. Before you call out ETN's YPC, you may want to compare it with the other JAX RB's last year. 3.8 looks pretty good when the other 2 backups both had 2.6.

Fourth, ETN finished that IND game with 23 touches for 104 yards and a TD, making him RB6 for week 1. ETN ran 18 times for 77 yards, while Bigsby ran 7 times for 13 yards. If ETN is only "getting what's there" as you said, what is Bigsby getting? Less than what's there?

1.) At the collegiate level, including ETN's production in the return game, he had over 800 touches. That's a lot, even though many of those were also against lighter fronts.
2.) Not a bold take, I said I didn't think he'd be on that list at all. Meaning, along with Kyren Williams & James Connor, he drops out of the top 10. Now, I was citing the carry-% list. We can all agree that both lists change every year. Jonathan Taylor has been on both & barring injury, I think he's a strong return candidate.
3.) No one is rostering Tank Bigsby... although he was a popular sleeper candidate last year. I see & have read greenmountaingo's comment about Johnson, who has done some things. It's just that both Peterson & the OC have spoken about getting Bigsby more involved. I know he didn't do well, but I'm under the impression they didn't have to stick with him, but have for a reason.

4.) I'm more critical of Etienne only because he's ranked as a mid-2nd rd value, Bigsby's a wire guy. You mention Etienne's rushing numbers vs the Colts, but his last run of the game was a 26-yd TD. According to what you have there, that would mean he was 17 for 51 prior to that play, which is 3yds per. That's a lot of what I saw. A versatile player who runs behind his pads & knows when to finish. There's one, or at least one (49sec into the video), where he gets into the 2nd tier but he's upright & pays for it. Didn't or couldn't finish runs with any pop or authority, went down easy and/or lost his balance several times. Change of direction & the suddenness not what we see from some of the others, not in this game. On several other plays the vision isn't there, seemingly.

One of them is that TD run. He runs up the back of his own OL, very fortunate a DL doesn't get a hand on him. Seems like the 2nd tier defenders lose track of him, there's some lateral flow, he comes out of it & has step on them. Speed looks good on this play. Once he squares up he's just running in a straight line and nobody gets a good piece of him. Had a decent spin move when he came out, contact balance, the physical mentality, just not the same. Looks like a guy that's played a lot of football.

If you're in dynasty & you won out, you could go back or you're close, stick it out. But if you're middle of the pack or struggling, I'm sure he'd be very enticing to a league-mate that's close & looking to add another piece. That TD, they include the replay that really zooms in. I recommend kicking up the quality and knock down the playback speed. When he separates from the pile, there's a good look at his footwork. Now, the way he tore up his left foot, he's doing the same thing, but it's with his right foot. Right when he's looking to square & get north/south you can see he's on the ball of his foot & the extent of rotation, easily noticeable. With the left, a number of steps involve the heel, but not all of them. The one of interest to me is the 1st step inside the 15yd line. It gets dragged & is literally parallel to the yard line.

Recall, he injured his foot in a non-contact situation. He's running the same way as before, what got him in trouble. Or, post-surgery, it doesn't appear to have altered the way he runs.