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RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
bostonfred
Footballguy
Sort of. He's about the easiest player to watch highlights of and see what you're getting. He's a banger, he runs with good power and ok burst but he has no long speed. Good size. Breaks tackles. Can catch well on running back routes but doesn't run receiver routes and wouldn't be any good at it. Was a linebacker for a bit and when he blocks he tends to hit guys, but doesn't sustain blocks. That's not terrible for fantasy - he can chip block and go out for a dump off.JohnnyU said:
There's a vacancy for the 138 rushes and 58 targets Mike Davis had last year. There's also room for him to pick up some of Cordarelle's 153 rushes and 69 targets if he plays well enough. I don't think Atlanta wanted to have Patterson lead the team in rushes, and he is probably best suited as a receiver and third down back, especially at 31 years old.
Atlanta was 29th in the league in rushing attempts with 393 and 31st in rushing yards with 1451. 17th in each would be 446 for 1930. I don't expect Allgeier to make then above average, but making them slightly below average instead of way below average seems possible, especially with a mobile qb stretching defenses laterally and pitts/ london stretching them vertically. If they switch to Ridder at any point, I'd expect them to protect the rookie with a running game. So there's a good opportunity for him to earn 200 plus carries and some receiving.
What I was saying earlier about Smith setting things up outside and all...today I saw "Derick Henry's longest runs" video come across my timeline on two platforms. If ya see that and have some time, watch it and pause to look at who is in front of him and around him when he catches the screen or when he breaks to the outside.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
What changed for you?
I have read a lot of different opinions on him and feel like there are four camps
1) people who started paying attention to him in college or before the draft, thought he was one of the top backs in the class and were disappointed by his 40 time and draft slide
2) people who started paying attention after his 4.6 at the combine and said wow this kid's pretty good, he might be a 2nd round dynasty steal
3) people who didn't know him before the NFL draft and saw he had one of the better landing spots, so they're interested
4) people who think draft capital is more important than landing spot and say things like JAG or "even if he's good they'll draft someone next year"
I'm a little bit of categories 2 and 3. Before the draft i was acquiring seconds and thirds because i thought there were a ton of good backs in this draft. I wouldn't have been shocked to see allgeier go in the second or third round. I wasn't shocked to see him go in the fifth. All of those guys are good but not great prospects who have some warts.
The thing that makes him good is that he's got good size and a good all around skillset. He can run inside, outside, catch, score and pass block. The thing that holds him back is that he's not particularly great at any of those things. He's powerful, but not explosive. He can catch but he's not running receiver routes. He can pass block but he doesn't sustain blocks.
I see that as a perfect fit for Atlanta, who has a guy who is explosive and can run receiver routes but can't handle the huge workload. I don't see wiliams as much different from Patterson - older back with some juice but not a 200 carry guy - which leaves Allgeier as the goal line back and a steady helping of touches. What do you see?
rockaction
Footballguy
This was me, though I wasn't sure he was "one of the top backs in the class." I passed on him for Pierre Strong Jr. at 3.02. I think I had a cramp in my brain when I did that, and I may very well regret that decision, but I went with the better athlete. It was Allgeier, Keontay Ingram, and Strong at that point. Rachaad White went just in front of me. I got sniped and didn't react so well.
But that's neither here nor there. After seeing his testing and reading the scouting reports (including Matt Waldman), I just decided to pass. His draft "slide" really wasn't a slide, per se. He'd been penciled in the fourth or fifth by draft day, so it was no surprise he went where he did.
You could be right about the guy. Perhaps he finds a home in Atlanta's offense for the year (I doubt he lasts longer than that with the 2023 class and free agents to come), but I thought going with Strong for the upside play was warranted, even in a Bill Belichick offense with a crowded backfield. Frankly, I hope Strong gets cut from NE and latches on somewhere that they need a back. We shall see. I liked Allgeier, but that was provided he was about a 4.5 guy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What’s over-drafting him. He was going in the late second in all of my rookie drafts. Seems worth the risk there.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
The first part, yes. The bolded part, no. I thought he'd be an effective committee back as an amateur. Given the situation he was drafted into I think he has a clear path to be an effective committee back in the pros. That can be playable in our game, but it's not ideal and even if injury thrusts him into a bigger role he's not likely to elevate beyond a lot end #2 in any given week.
Never say never with development as a passing downs option, but it's not a bet I'd make with him which is why I've trended towards other committee backs when the value was right.
The system he is in might be in a RBBC but I'm not sure there was a RB in this draft class more suited to be a bell cow.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I never got the impression he had bell cow ability as an amateur, especially in the passing game. Short injury forced stints? Sure, but ideally with someone else to handle obvious passing downs.
zamboni
Footballguy
I was thinking more later on during camp, which is when I draft. I can see the hype building - maybe valid, maybe not.
bostonfred
Footballguy
He catches the ball pretty well on dump offs and screens. That's all they really did in his offense so there's no reason to think he can't do it. If there are concerns with him It's whether he'll have the speed to get to the corner and enough burst to get through NFL holes.
You make me think we are not talking about the same guy, that's exactly what he was, a three down bell cow RB and not because of injuries.
I was feeling like leader of the bandwagon. I've been reading a lot of Falcons stuff (with so many Titans there) and everyone has been saying he reminds them of Falcons great TJ Duckett.
That was a worm in my brain and annoying (hello he wasn't great at all. He had no vision) and Im still thinking this is guy, skip what everyone says.
I had some downtime and messaged a scout friend and he said Twin. Watch the tape. They're identical.
This started a discussion of how I'm not privileged to have what he has and....he shared some videos of them side by side.
I just feel like oof that makes him fine but unspecial and I've been there many years ago so....nope
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think a full time job in college necessarily means one should be a full timer in the pros. He was the best option available for BYU and was deployed accordingly. He does just about everything one would want as a runner, but lacks home run hitting ability and as Fred said his speed to the edge may be a problem. Where we seem to lack alignment is the passing game. Everything I saw left me thinking he's very limited. Not saying development can't happen, but it isn't a bet I'd take.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Very true but I thought you were saying he was not that in college and he clearly was his final year.
Again agreed but to me that discussion is if he's any good or not which to me is a different subject then if he has 3 down skills.
Maybe and everyone has opinions but here is one man's take with that man being Dane Brugler who is with The Athletic now. I mentioned earlier in this thread that Dane had him as his 4th ranked RB in his draft guide. I never agreed with that, to high for my taste by a handful at least. I personally have some concerns about his explosive ability and quickness. But after seeing that from Dane I went on a deep dive and watched a few of his games and tended to agree with everything Dane wrote in his writeup, just had a different conclusion then him though I thought his Conner comp was spot on. That info is behind a paywall(The Athletic) and I respect that but it's also a few months old now, plus I'm giving them some free advertisement, so I'm going to go ahead and take the liberty of posting some of his writeup and I'll highlight some of the key area's regarding passing game. Again this is just one person's opinion so if you don't agree it's all cool.
STRENGTHS: Big-boned frame with a solid build … runs with athletic steps/moves, and his eyes and feet are tied together with strings … quick to read his blocks, press the hole and make timely cuts … patient but decisive runner with minimal wasted motion (and won’t run up the back of his blockers) … has the contact balance and heavy pads to squeeze through slivers of daylight between the tackles … picks up steam once he gets going with better-than-expected second-level speed … 33.8% of his carries in 2021 resulted in a first down or touchdown … reliable screen/check-down option with excellent focus and body control as a pass catcher … effective lead blocker on quarterback runs and stayed alert in pass protection to locate and put his shoulder in the blitzer’s belly … humble by nature and earned his success by outworking everyone with his “nothing is given” attitude … didn’t complain when the coaches moved him to linebacker for most of the 2019 season (26 tackles) … durable and handled a full workload in 2021 while avoiding injury … highly productive 2021 season and finished tied for No. 1 nationally in rushing touchdowns (23) and was one of only four players to reach 1,600 rushing yards to set a BYU single-season record … needed only two seasons to rank top-five in school history in several career categories, including rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
WEAKNESSES: Not a burst runner, with only average perimeter speed … his ordinary wiggle is a result of his tight hips and inconsistent pad level … his broken tackles are usually because of force rather than avoiding defenders … runs physical but would benefit from exploding into contact more … can get caught leaning in pass protection, giving rushers a chance to make a move … fumbled six times in college, including four times in 2021 … found himself contained against the top two rundefending teams on the 2021 schedule, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (42/135/1) vs. Baylor and Utah … only one season (2019) of special teams experience.
SUMMARY: A two-year starter at BYU, Allgeier grew into a bell-cow role in first-year offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick’s balanced attack. Over the past two seasons (24 games), he averaged 113.8 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game (best in the nation over that span) and finished his career with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average (BYU record). A decisive ball carrier, Allgeier shows a lot of the ancillary traits necessary to be productive at the next level and competes with the attitude and determination of a former walk-on (see his chase-down forced fumble on 2021 Arizona State tape). Although he isn’t overly elusive, he runs through arm tackles with his body strength and contact balance (70.9% of his yardage in 2021 came after initial contact). Overall, Allgeier isn’t an explosive runner, but he runs with an instinctive feel and quick feet for a bigger ball carrier and shows the passing game potential to be an every-down NFL back. He reminds me of Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner
bostonfred
Footballguy
For sure, but one positive sign is that they cut Mike Davis about 4 minutes after drafting Allgeier, and he was picked up pretty quickly by the Ravens. So it seems like
1) they kept Davis through free agency despite having Cordarelle, Ollison and Williams
2) after drafting Allgeier they felt comfortable enough to cut Davis without needing to see Allgeier play a snap, and
3) at least one other team thought Davis was the best guy left on the market
You're right that his value - and price - will rise if they don't sign anyone, and maybe there's another veteran waiting in the wings who they like almost as much as Davis or a veteran they can get at the last minute Fournette. But at least for now it seems like Allgeier will get a chance to prove himself. And honestly I would be shocked to see them pay up for a running back in trade while they're starting mariotta and a third round rookie.
We're trying to be ahead of the curve here. In some leagues you can wait until August to decide so this is moot. In some you draft early, and you have to make smart contrarian plays to get an edge against tough league mates.
To me, Allgeier is more valuable than a lot of backs that got drafted earlier than him.
For example, you can make the case that Rachaad White is a better player, but we don't know if he will ever get a chance to prove himself. For every argument that the Falcons might draft someone next year, there's an equal argument that the bucs will draft someone before White gets a chance to start or even play meaningful snaps. See also: Bernard, Gio and Vaughn, Keyshawn. There's guys currently on the team who are probably ahead of him in line for backup touches. All things being equal, white would have to be a much better player - and with much higher draft capital - to justify taking him ahead of a guy with more certain opportunity.
Zamir White might get a chance in 2023. He might not. I'm not confident that he's better that Allgeier in the first place, but if i have to wait a year to even find out what they do with Jacobs... then sweat out the draft because they'd definitely need someone on the depth chart if Jacobs walks... how is that any more certain than Allgeier?
What about the dudes behind ekeler or in a committee with gibson/mckissic or in the whirlwind in San Francisco or...
Really all of these guys are pretty good backs and most of them are in bad situations. Most of them need an injury or offseason move to get a serious opportunity. Situation matters for running backs, even in dynasty.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Someone did a study that 5th round running backs only produce a rb2 season or better 20% of the time. That sounds terrible, until you remove the survivorship bias. Cameron Artis-payne was drafted in the 5th. He never got a chance. He wasn't drafted to be a starter he was drafted as depth.
Very few 5th round picks are drafted to start or even compete for a job. If you cross out the ones who never had a chance, and leave yourself with guys like Paul perkins and Aaron Jones, the numbers aren't nearly as daunting.
It's easy to objectively isolate draft capital. It's difficult to objectively isolate situation. Was Brian Robinson drafted to compete for a starting job right away? Was Elijah Mitchell last year? Or Aaron Jones when he was drafted after Jamaal Williams by the Packers?
Yet we intuitively know that certain players have a path and others don't. Just like as fantasy players, we know that the last guy selected in a tier often ends up better than the first guy selected in a tier.
To me, Allgeier was part of a big second tier that started with the third rb selected. Other people had cook, robinson or others a tier higher. No argument from me, and in fact i like cook more than Allgeier because Cook's draft capital, team and opportunity are all better.
To other people, Rachaad White might be a tier two talent and Allgeier a tier 4, so it's well worth the wait. Can't argue with that either.
But if you see them in the same tier - or close enough where they're all pretty good and they all have some warts - then I can't see an objective reason to take Rachaad over Allgeier because the fit is good, and the opportunity does matter, and even if I'm wrong, I'd rather find out right away that my guy sucks than hold my 2022 draft pick through 2024 because maybe this is the year.
Just my .02 when i happen to be feeling argumentative lol
Very few 5th round picks are drafted to start or even compete for a job. If you cross out the ones who never had a chance, and leave yourself with guys like Paul perkins and Aaron Jones, the numbers aren't nearly as daunting.
It's easy to objectively isolate draft capital. It's difficult to objectively isolate situation. Was Brian Robinson drafted to compete for a starting job right away? Was Elijah Mitchell last year? Or Aaron Jones when he was drafted after Jamaal Williams by the Packers?
Yet we intuitively know that certain players have a path and others don't. Just like as fantasy players, we know that the last guy selected in a tier often ends up better than the first guy selected in a tier.
To me, Allgeier was part of a big second tier that started with the third rb selected. Other people had cook, robinson or others a tier higher. No argument from me, and in fact i like cook more than Allgeier because Cook's draft capital, team and opportunity are all better.
To other people, Rachaad White might be a tier two talent and Allgeier a tier 4, so it's well worth the wait. Can't argue with that either.
But if you see them in the same tier - or close enough where they're all pretty good and they all have some warts - then I can't see an objective reason to take Rachaad over Allgeier because the fit is good, and the opportunity does matter, and even if I'm wrong, I'd rather find out right away that my guy sucks than hold my 2022 draft pick through 2024 because maybe this is the year.
Just my .02 when i happen to be feeling argumentative lol
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Very good post and I agree with all of it with a couple small caveats.
One, 20% is a giant number. I am in Vegas at the WSOP right now and if the price is right, 20% is a winner. Mid 2nd for Allgeier is fairly cheap.
Two, it is definitely easier to objectively look at draft capital than situation. But I wouldn't call it easy. IMO most analyses are flawed when it comes to DC. How deep is a given class with regard to OL, DL, QB, DB, etc before even thinking about RB or WR? IMO a 4th round pick is closer to a 3rd than a 5th. The day 2/day 3 split is considered industry standard, and it isn't terrible, but it doesn't yield as much objectivity as people think.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I believe certain analysts are making a big mistake putting too much stock in RB draft capital. The historical trends do not apply.
I believe we will see more and more 4th and 5th round RBs have fantasy success as the NFL evolves. In this instance, buying RBs like White and Allgeier low is the shark move. The guppy move will prove to be writing them off because they were drafted in a certain round IMHO.
It will be exciting to see it play out over the next few years.
Food for Thought
Elija Mitchell - 2021 6th Round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 2021 4th Round
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zamboni
Footballguy
I think this is a good point given how much later RBs are being drafted for the most part as the NFL devalues the position. Past history may not be all that relevant when it comes to RB draft capital.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
In the past few years most of the studs have been 1st and 2nd round picks. You could make the argument the NFL has learned to value the position less. In the meantime Barkley was top 5, Gurley top 10, McCafferty top 10 also I think. Last year had 2 first rounders.
While I don't think we will see a repeat of Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson in the top 10, this is not the same as saying they would be 4th or 5th rounders nowadays. They're pushed back by a 1/2 round or a full round at most. Draft capital still has significance but I can see an argument the cutoffs have changed a little bit. Tho, not enough to put Algireir in the stud category.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I agree, and I have not put him in the stud category. I do think it is plausible he is fantasy relevant and the broader sharp fantasy community also believes that based on best ball ADP and consensus rankings.
TripItUp
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
And going further back, guys like Stepehen Davis, Alfred Morris, and Michael Turner had several highly productive years being drafted in the 4th-6th rounds.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I agree with your overall sentiment, but short of having a uniquely favorable assessment of a player I'd rather throw my darts at the bottom of the tier. Let the board decide where I throw my dart rather than going to get them.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He looks pretty stiff to me and doesn't have good pad level. I see him using his off hand to balance himself which shows me he doesn't have very good footwork or change of direction ability.
While Damien Williams is kind of tight in the hips as well I think he is a better runner, receiver and blocker than Allgeier so I would guess that he will win the starting job here as the better more well rounded player.
While Damien Williams is kind of tight in the hips as well I think he is a better runner, receiver and blocker than Allgeier so I would guess that he will win the starting job here as the better more well rounded player.
joey
Footballguy
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'd be surprised if he weren't their 2-down back fairly quickly. Probably won't be that valuable for fantasy given role and a likely terrible team.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if his numbers were only slightly better than 2021 Mike Davis.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I would but I also wouldn't feel bad if I was wrong. Been getting him in the double digit rounds. Mike Davis was going in the 4th and 5th last year. I did not take him once.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm all for dart throws on RBs in the later rounds, but I could see them drafting someone like Robinson, Gibbs, or Evans next year that would kill Allgeier's value.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think that's part of what makes it a "dart throw". If he was a guaranteed feature back for the next 4 years he wouldn't be on the board at 2.07, would he?
bostonfred
Footballguy
Name the teams that wouldn't take Bijan.
Indy and Pittsburgh. The Jets and Broncos probably. After that, it gets murky fast.
The Titans absolutely would. Chargers? Of course. This sounds like the most Jerry Jones draft pick ever. Kansas City?
What about a team like the Falcons with a zillion team needs including a questionable quarterback, a total black at wr2, and a defense that fantasy owners highlight green in their schedules? Would they spend an early pick on a running back? Sure, maybe. But it isn't a foregone conclusion any more than any other team.
In fact, I'd argue that if Allgeier is good this year, he's pretty unlikely to get replaced. If he sucks, maybe they prioritize rb in the draft, maybe not. But if he's any good, they're more likely to use early round draft picks on their many other needs and see what he can do in year two. They're more likely to replace Cordarelle as the lightning in the backfield than to go after a bell cow.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Good point. I've seen him go as high as 2.05, which I think is a little high, but you're right, he's going around where you said in most leagues.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JT was taken in the 2nd round and so were other highly thought of RBs, so It's not out of a realm of possibility the Falcons could get one of Robinson, Gibbs, or Evans. Any one of which would tank Allgeier.
bostonfred
Footballguy
You're responding to the exact wrong part of that post. There are 28 teams that might take Robinson Gibbs or Evans next year. It's not out of the realm of possibility for any of them to draft someone. The Colts drafted JT when they had a perfectly good Marlon Mack. The Titans drafted Henry then started DeMarco Murray all year. The Seahawks drafted Penny when they had Carson. The rams drafted Henderson then traded for Michel and drafted Akers. The Broncos spent big money on Gordon and drafted Javonte. It's not just jags who get screwed in the draft, everyone is at risk, even guys who play pretty well.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
All true, but I suspect the Falcons will be just as much in the hunt for a stud RB as anyone in either the first or second round. Most likely the second round if they target one of those three. I could see Robinson going in the first to someone.
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