RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

Ya'll talking as though Bledsoe is a superb QB.  Go back read the stats from last year...when your QB throws for 100-150+ yds and your team still scores high, you know its your RB carrying your team.  JP or Kelly is an improvement over Beldsoe, IMO.

I would argue that the Bills defense carried the team.

The D was clearly playing very well. But you can't argue the fact that Buf's O was playing better too. 1st 4 games: 12.75 points per game and 268.5 yds per game, last 12 games: 28.66 points per game and 301 yds per game. Thats more than 30 yds per game more and more tha double the points! It wasn't just the D.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The D was clearly playing very well. But you can't argue the fact that Buf's O was playing better too. 1st 4 games: 12.75 points per game and 268.5 yds per game, last 12 games: 28.66 points per game and 301 yds per game. Thats more than 30 yds per game more and more tha double the points! It wasn't just the D

You're right...it was the schedule.

 

[David Yudkin]

Ya'll talking as though Bledsoe is a superb QB.  Go back read the stats from last year...when your QB throws for 100-150+ yds and your team still scores high, you know its your RB carrying your team.  JP or Kelly is an improvement over Beldsoe, IMO.

I would argue that the Bills defense carried the team.

The D was clearly playing very well. But you can't argue the fact that Buf's O was playing better too. 1st 4 games: 12.75 points per game and 268.5 yds per game, last 12 games: 28.66 points per game and 301 yds per game. Thats more than 30 yds per game more and more tha double the points! It wasn't just the D.

I agree that the Bills offense did do better later in the season, but it's a lot easier to do better when you start at your opponent's 30 yard line or mid field than when you start pinned at your own goal line.If you look at the Bills drive logs over the course of the season (and I did), you will notice that for the most part when they were pinned in their own end they had a very high percentage of drives that went nowhere or were 3 and outs.

However, the defense or special teams would hit a dominant stretch and the Bills would go from having the ball 4 drives and doing nothing to scoring points on 4 or 5 possessions in a row--mostly precipitated by turnovers or great punt returns.

IMO, it's a lot easier to pile on the yards and the points when you just scored twice in three minutes and got the ball back again with only 38 yards to go for another score. Momentum swings and frustration can be hige factors to a team's success.

So you have to ask yourself, how likely are the Bills to produce at a level leaps and bounds above other team's defenses on almost a weekly basis? In one of my leagues, the Bills were the #1 scoring/ranked player in the entire league they were so dominating. How often will a defense be that good?

 

[Footballhead]

Ya'll talking as though Bledsoe is a superb QB.  Go back read the stats from last year...when your QB throws for 100-150+ yds and your team still scores high, you know its your RB carrying your team.  JP or Kelly is an improvement over Beldsoe, IMO.

I would argue that the Bills defense carried the team.

The D was clearly playing very well. But you can't argue the fact that Buf's O was playing better too. 1st 4 games: 12.75 points per game and 268.5 yds per game, last 12 games: 28.66 points per game and 301 yds per game. Thats more than 30 yds per game more and more tha double the points! It wasn't just the D.

I agree that the Bills offense did do better later in the season, but it's a lot easier to do better when you start at your opponent's 30 yard line or mid field than when you start pinned at your own goal line.If you look at the Bills drive logs over the course of the season (and I did), you will notice that for the most part when they were pinned in their own end they had a very high percentage of drives that went nowhere or were 3 and outs.

However, the defense or special teams would hit a dominant stretch and the Bills would go from having the ball 4 drives and doing nothing to scoring points on 4 or 5 possessions in a row--mostly precipitated by turnovers or great punt returns.

IMO, it's a lot easier to pile on the yards and the points when you just scored twice in three minutes and got the ball back again with only 38 yards to go for another score. Momentum swings and frustration can be hige factors to a team's success.

So you have to ask yourself, how likely are the Bills to produce at a level leaps and bounds above other team's defenses on almost a weekly basis? In one of my leagues, the Bills were the #1 scoring/ranked player in the entire league they were so dominating. How often will a defense be that good?

David, you're right on that...but the O- has to execute. The D don't score the points. When Chi or Tampa Bay were great defensive teams, were they an offensive powerhouse? If Bill's D goes on a slight decline, wouldn't that cause the Bills want to control the clock more? What I was trying to say is that McGahee already did had the line stacked against him, Bledsoe did not take any pressure away from him.

 

[jurb26]

I agree that the Bills offense did do better later in the season, but it's a lot easier to do better when you start at your opponent's 30 yard line or mid field than when you start pinned at your own goal line.

If you look at the Bills drive logs over the course of the season (and I did), you will notice that for the most part when they were pinned in their own end they had a very high percentage of drives that went nowhere or were 3 and outs.

However, the defense or special teams would hit a dominant stretch and the Bills would go from having the ball 4 drives and doing nothing to scoring points on 4 or 5 possessions in a row--mostly precipitated by turnovers or great punt returns.

IMO, it's a lot easier to pile on the yards and the points when you just scored twice in three minutes and got the ball back again with only 38 yards to go for another score. Momentum swings and frustration can be hige factors to a team's success.

So you have to ask yourself, how likely are the Bills to produce at a level leaps and bounds above other team's defenses on almost a weekly basis? In one of my leagues, the Bills were the #1 scoring/ranked player in the entire league they were so dominating. How often will a defense be that good?

No kidding, everything you said here can be applied to every NFL team though, not just Buf. Of course good or bad field position makes a difference. You do realize how much lower the scoring percentages are when team start from their own 20 or worse I hope. More yards to cover means more that can go wrong for an O. Teams starting in very bad postion are also going to be more carefull and try not to make a mistake... as it would lead to a surefire redzone opp for the other team and points.To take the points and yds a step further. here is how the Buf O did scoring if you take away all the opints scored by D/ST:

1st 4 games: 11 points per game

last 14 games: 20 points per game

I broke this down again becasue the Buf D scored an amazing 64 points in the final 14 games and 7 in the 1st 4. Whcih lead more to the other, we can't be sure. Either way it was clear that when Willis got involved in the O, it performed much better and so did Buf as a team. They amasses more yds, scored more pints, and won more games.

 

[David Yudkin]

1st 4 games: 11 points per gamelast 14 games: 20 points per game

I don't have the drive data at my finger tips, but you would see that the average field position had in those first few games was awful while the starting field position in the latter games was phenomenal.IMO, that alone could have been the biggest reason why the Bills scored a lot more points in those games.The Bills are porbably not going to have the same success in the turnover and points scored department next year--it's extremely hard to replicate such top tier numbers in those areas. They may be able to emulate their points allowed and yardage allowed numbers--which could still help out the offense by keeping the ball out of the opponent's hands.However, as you just mentioned, it's a lot easier to score when you start 20 yards out than 80 yards out, and if the Bills go back to a more "normal" starting field position, they would have a very high probability of scoring fewer points.This is not knocking either the offense or the defense in Buffalo, just a pointing out that the way things played out over the last half of last season are unlikely to happen again this season.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Ya'll talking as though Bledsoe is a superb QB. Go back read the stats from last year...when your QB throws for 100-150+ yds and your team still scores high, you know its your RB carrying your team. JP or Kelly is an improvement over Beldsoe, IMO.

I would argue that the Bills defense carried the team.

And special teams. Tops in both last year.

 

[wilked]

Good postings by Yudkin

jurb, you are ignoring every fact put in front of you. At some point you should be saying, Interesting analysis, I may have to lower my ranking of McGahee after learning that

 

[slowerde]

OK, we got it. The defense/special teams set him up, his QB sucks, and they lost the starting offensive tackle.We also know that he is tremendously talented, and will arguably be at 100% this year, how great he will be at 100% may be remarkable. It's also been said that Losman may not be that big a drop off from Bledsoe, and teams HAVE stacked the line last year, to no avail.Now, after taking both of those into account, who else would you take AHEAD of him???OK, I'll give you LT, Alexander, Holmes. Proven year after year (even though Priest has a prety big durability in his own right)But then you hit that 2nd tier, with McGahee, McAllister, K Jones, Portis, Tiki, etc.Don't ALL of them have JUST as many questions marks? We could get a 12 page thread on any of them. Thats what every player is faced with, questions, and we try to gather as much information about those questions as we can to determine an answer. Many of these questions don't have "absolute" answers, it varies on the interuption of the information.Joe, wilked, others, seem to believe there are too many unanswerable questions to feel confident in drafting him.I, as well as many others seem to think that all of the other potential players in his tier have just as many questions as McGahee, but we care to side with the guy who produced 1475 yds and 13 TD's last year, who may actually have the potential to repeat if not better those numbers, if healthy.To each their own.

 

[ko-jack]

Getting back on topic, here is more fuel that McGahee is overated.

The Buffalo defense was so good that it gave the team exceptional field position on a regular basis. In the 12 games McGahee started, their average field position was their own 40 yard line. 34 times the Bills took possession of the ball in opponent's territory. 22 other drives started with less than 60 yards to go to the end zone.

And for those that don't thins strength of schedule matters, McGahee played all teams that were ranked 10th or better against the run or 20th or worse against the run.

In his 8 games against 20th or worse rush defenses, he averaged 18.7 fantasy ppg. In his 4 games against 10th or better run defenses, he averaged 12.7 fantasy ppg--basically 50% lower.

Add all this together, and I don't see the Bills defense being able to repeat their turnover magic and continue to shorten the field for the offense. And I also don't see McGahee getting a slate of cake walk run defenses.

And please, no Yudkin = McGahee hater comments . . .

plus, with losman's mobility, he could steal some tds.

 

[jurb26]

OK, we got it. The defense/special teams set him up, his QB sucks, and they lost the starting offensive tackle.

We also know that he is tremendously talented, and will arguably be at 100% this year, how great he will be at 100% may be remarkable. It's also been said that Losman may not be that big a drop off from Bledsoe, and teams HAVE stacked the line last year, to no avail.

Now, after taking both of those into account, who else would you take AHEAD of him???

OK, I'll give you LT, Alexander, Holmes. Proven year after year (even though Priest has a prety big durability in his own right)

But then you hit that 2nd tier, with McGahee, McAllister, K Jones, Portis, Tiki, etc.

Don't ALL of them have JUST as many questions marks? We could get a 12 page thread on any of them. Thats what every player is faced with, questions, and we try to gather as much information about those questions as we can to determine an answer. Many of these questions don't have "absolute" answers, it varies on the interuption of the information.

Joe, wilked, others, seem to believe there are too many unanswerable questions to feel confident in drafting him.

I, as well as many others seem to think that all of the other potential players in his tier have just as many questions as McGahee, but we care to side with the guy who produced 1475 yds and 13 TD's last year, who may actually have the potential to repeat if not better those numbers, if healthy.

To each their own.

It really doesn't get any more simple than that.

 

[The (Grid)Iron Giant]

I personally think the Bills won't hesitate to go with Kelly Holcomb is Losman is ineffective. It's not as though they're going to run with Losman for the entire season regardless of his level of play. Why does everyone take that as an absolute? There are very few, if any, QBs that are above benching at a certain level of play.

Okay, sure, but did Houston bench Carr? Did Detroit bench Harrington (enough)? Did the Giants bench Eli once they went to him? When a team commits to a young QB, they usually stick it out for a year. Heck, Harrington's one of the worst statistical QBs ever and yet he's still got his job. And you can say the Bills are a more complete, ready to compete team than most teams running young QBs out there, but I seem to recall the Giants being perfectly willing to tank the season just to get Baby Manning a little PT.

So yeah, Losman's a factor, and he isn't likely to disappear. Then again, Tiki put up fine numbers with awful little Eli at the helm. And 'round and 'round the merry go round we go...

 

[Z-Dog]

The Bills were a mediocre team last season. They beat only one team all season that ended with a winning record (NYJ, whom they also lost to). The rest of their victories came against teams with .500 records or lower, and most of their victories came against some of the top league patsies - Miami twice, Cleveland, San Fran and Arizona. It's just unlikely that all of the thing which made McGahee succesful will repeat.Bledose took pretty good care of the ball, outside of two game (7 of his INTs in two game, meaning that over 14 games he threw 20 TDs and 9 INTs. He didn't throw a pick in seven of 16 games). Losman won't take as good care of the ball, and it woudl eb shocking if they didn't stick with Losman as a starter even if he has an awful season - a 1st-round QB usually gets that kind of treatment in his first year as a starter.The defense and ST shortened the field significantly. It porbably will not repeat this feat to the same level.It's hard to imagine how the schedule isn't going to get tougher. Even for peoplw like me, who are wary of SOS thinking, it's obvious that Buffalo had a really easy schedule last year, and will likely face a somewhat more difficult schedule this year.Take all these things together, and unless you believe that McGahee is Barry-Sanders talented, it adds up to worse numbers for him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Take all these things together, and unless you believe that McGahee is Barry-Sanders talented, it adds up to worse numbers for him.

his numbers may be worse on a per game basis, but he could also get 4 additional starts compared to last season.

 

[Joe T]

OK, we got it. The defense/special teams set him up, his QB sucks, and they lost the starting offensive tackle.

We also know that he is tremendously talented, and will arguably be at 100% this year, how great he will be at 100% may be remarkable. It's also been said that Losman may not be that big a drop off from Bledsoe, and teams HAVE stacked the line last year, to no avail.

Now, after taking both of those into account, who else would you take AHEAD of him???

OK, I'll give you LT, Alexander, Holmes. Proven year after year (even though Priest has a prety big durability in his own right)

But then you hit that 2nd tier, with McGahee, McAllister, K Jones, Portis, Tiki, etc.

Don't ALL of them have JUST as many questions marks? We could get a 12 page thread on any of them. Thats what every player is faced with, questions, and we try to gather as much information about those questions as we can to determine an answer. Many of these questions don't have "absolute" answers, it varies on the interuption of the information.

Joe, wilked, others, seem to believe there are too many unanswerable questions to feel confident in drafting him.

I, as well as many others seem to think that all of the other potential players in his tier have just as many questions as McGahee, but we care to side with the guy who produced 1475 yds and 13 TD's last year, who may actually have the potential to repeat if not better those numbers, if healthy.

To each their own.

It really doesn't get any more simple than that.

Actually, I think the questions have been answered. That's why I have him rated so low. His quarterback has a greater than 50% chance of being a downgrade from last year simply because it is Losman's first year as a starter. His offensive line is worse. His YPR is nothing to write home about and he doesn't catch the ball out of the backfield. And he has a major injury in his history. He has to produce a TD per game to produce to the level he is being drafted at. AND when you add in Yudkin's analysis on field position you have the fact that....McGahee stinks of 'Please move my ### down the draft board.'

This board is notorious for hyping someone unworthy. This year it is McGahee and it is my job to point out the flaws.

 

[jurb26]

This board is notorious for hyping someone unworthy. This year it is McGahee and it is my job to point out the flaws.

....and all of the points you just brought up have been addressed too. This is just going in circles. Either way, all of you guys said that McGahee was all "hype" last year too. Turns out he was more than just hype. Maybe you will learn after this year... but I have my doubts.

 

[Snotbubbles]

....and all of the points you just brought up have been addressed too. This is just going in circles. Either way, all of you guys said that McGahee was all "hype" last year too. Turns out he was more than just hype. Maybe you will learn after this year... but I have my doubts.

The argument here isn't that McGahee won't do well this season. He's the starter on his team with relatively no competition. Barring injury he should see 300+ carries. But in order to be in the top 5 he's gonna have to do a better job on a per game average than he did in 2004. There are too many other backs who put up yardage that make it tough for a guy who relies heavily on TDs to break the top 5.

his numbers may be worse on a per game basis, but he could also get 4 additional starts compared to last season.

I'm sure he would have racked up a ton of yards in the NE game he missed. Jacksonville would have been a walk in the park as well. And unless they were gonna hand him the ball another 37 times I don't think he'd have done as well vs. the Jets. So he would probably had to put up like 150 yds and 3 TDs against OAK to get his per game average in those first 4 games.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'm sure he would have racked up a ton of yards in the NE game he missed. Jacksonville would have been a walk in the park as well. And unless they were gonna hand him the ball another 37 times I don't think he'd have done as well vs. the Jets. So he would probably had to put up like 150 yds and 3 TDs against OAK to get his per game average in those first 4 games.

what does that have to do with 2005? I said he'll likely average fewer points/game in 2005 than he did in 2004, but he'll also get 4 additional starts.BTW, McGahee is #6 in our consensus rankings and has been for a couple weeks now. Why all the top-5 obsession?RBs ranked just behind him include:Clinton PortisKevin JonesTiki BarberJamal LewisAhman Greeninstead of just pointing out all the question marks with McGahee, which we've heard over and over again in this thread and others, I'd really love to hear some arguments about why these RBs are so clearly worthy of being ranked ahead of him? Apparently, at least 1 or 2 of them are better bets to finish in the top-5 at the end of the season. I'm willing to be convinced by all the evidence that is out there. Hopefully, you guys can educate all of us misguided fools.

 

[David Yudkin]

Take all these things together, and unless you believe that McGahee is Barry-Sanders talented, it adds up to worse numbers for him.

his numbers may be worse on a per game basis, but he could also get 4 additional starts compared to last season.

Thank you Aaron, you have essentially uncovered what I have been saying all along. Many guys have great stretches over PART of a season, but they rarely maintain that level of production excellence on a weekly basis over a full season. So when players like Clinton Portis or Jamal Lewis come along, everyone ups the ante for the next year, but they rarely do as well PER GAME and their numbers may stay close to the same or slightly better or worse.Willis would have needed another 50 fantasy points to crack the Top 5 last season, but it was a down year for elite RB scoring. Based on other seasons and the banner crop of running backs this year, he might need 75 more to make the Top 5.

McGahee averaged 16.7 fantasy ppg from Week 6 on. He averaged 101 yards and 1.1 TD per start last year. If we dropped his yardage to 90 TD rate to 0.8 per game and said played all 16 games, that would give him 222 fantasy points (he had 208 last year). That would still give him almost 14 fantasy ppg. Last year, he would have still ranked as the #9 RB had he scored that total.

 

[Snotbubbles]

instead of just pointing out all the question marks with McGahee, which we've heard over and over again in this thread and others, I'd really love to hear some arguments about why these RBs are so clearly worthy of being ranked ahead of him? Apparently, at least 1 or 2 of them are better bets to finish in the top-5 at the end of the season. I'm willing to be convinced by all the evidence that is out there. Hopefully, you guys can educate all of us misguided fools.

I've already posted why I believe Tiki Barber will finish ahead of McGahee. For those who don't want to fish through this thread. TOTAL YARDS WILL DETERMINE WHO IS IN THE TOP 5. I see McGahee around 10th.

 

[jurb26]

....and all of the points you just brought up have been addressed too. This is just going in circles.

Either way, all of you guys said that McGahee was all "hype" last year too. Turns out he was more than just hype. Maybe you will learn after this year... but I have my doubts.

The argument here isn't that McGahee won't do well this season. He's the starter on his team with relatively no competition. Barring injury he should see 300+ carries. But in order to be in the top 5 he's gonna have to do a better job on a per game average than he did in 2004. There are too many other backs who put up yardage that make it tough for a guy who relies heavily on TDs to break the top 5.

We've been through this already, but every RB that ends up in the top 5 is going to have to score a high amount of TDs. This is not exclusive to Willis. Look at Barber for a prime example. Yds have never been a problem for Tiki, but still his only year in the top 5 was last year. The year he finally hit the 15 TDs mark and only his 2nd time over 10 TDs in his career. The seperation in RB5 and RB10 or RB15 is so small its almost comical to get this much debate over it. Some have more confidence in Willis than rest of the field, others don't. The bottom line is that you can't find a single RB in that group that doesn't have major questions though.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I don't necessarily think McGahee is a safe bet to finish in the top-5, but he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10.Is Kevin Jones any more likely to match his 2nd half production? Julius Jones? Is Clinton Portis capable of a top-10 season outside of Denver? Was Tiki Barber's TD production a fluke or will he get double digit TDs again to go with his great yardage totals? Jamal Lewis is coming off a trip to prison and a season in which he couldn't stay healthy and finished as the #25 ranked RB.I just don't see a slam dunk player in this group that should overtake McGahee. That's my problem with saying he's overrated. Pretty much anybody in that spot is going to be overrated.

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't necessarily think McGahee is a safe bet to finish in the top-5, but he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10.

Is Kevin Jones any more likely to match his 2nd half production? Julius Jones? Is Clinton Portis capable of a top-10 season outside of Denver? Was Tiki Barber's TD production a fluke or will he get double digit TDs again to go with his great yardage totals? Jamal Lewis is coming off a trip to prison and a season in which he couldn't stay healthy and finished as the #25 ranked RB.

I just don't see a slam dunk player in this group that should overtake McGahee. That's my problem with saying he's overrated. Pretty much anybody in that spot is going to be overrated.

The thing is that other players in that group have better ypc and better receiving numbers along with the chance for lots of TDs. McGahee just has the TDs. That implies that McGahee is not as talented as his TD totals make people think he is.

 

[jurb26]

I don't necessarily think McGahee is a safe bet to finish in the top-5, but he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10.

Is Kevin Jones any more likely to match his 2nd half production? Julius Jones? Is Clinton Portis capable of a top-10 season outside of Denver? Was Tiki Barber's TD production a fluke or will he get double digit TDs again to go with his great yardage totals? Jamal Lewis is coming off a trip to prison and a season in which he couldn't stay healthy and finished as the #25 ranked RB.

I just don't see a slam dunk player in this group that should overtake McGahee. That's my problem with saying he's overrated. Pretty much anybody in that spot is going to be overrated.

The thing is that other players in that group have better ypc and better receiving numbers along with the chance for lots of TDs. McGahee just has the TDs. That implies that McGahee is not as talented as his TD totals make people think he is.

Then what does that imply about LT and his 3.6 PYA his 1st year and his 3.9 YPA last year?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I don't necessarily think McGahee is a safe bet to finish in the top-5, but he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10.

Is Kevin Jones any more likely to match his 2nd half production? Julius Jones? Is Clinton Portis capable of a top-10 season outside of Denver? Was Tiki Barber's TD production a fluke or will he get double digit TDs again to go with his great yardage totals? Jamal Lewis is coming off a trip to prison and a season in which he couldn't stay healthy and finished as the #25 ranked RB.

I just don't see a slam dunk player in this group that should overtake McGahee. That's my problem with saying he's overrated. Pretty much anybody in that spot is going to be overrated.

The thing is that other players in that group have better ypc and better receiving numbers along with the chance for lots of TDs. McGahee just has the TDs. That implies that McGahee is not as talented as his TD totals make people think he is.

Once again, just b/c McGahee didn't catch many balls last year doesn't mean that he won't catch many balls this year. New QB and playing from behind should lead to a significant improvement in that area. I also think you'll see him break off more longer runs this year as he regains some of the speed that he lost due to injury. That should help improve his YPC, along with the fact that he's still a young player who is improving. By comparison, Portis averaged 3.8 YPC and only managed 7 TDs last year. He also plays in what could be one of the worst offenses in the league, IMO. Yet, many people look at what he did in Denver and think he's destined to reach top-5 stud status again. If he took McGahee's spot, would you agree that he was overrated?

I've yet to see anyone dispute McGahee's talent level. If that's where you're going with this, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. I can see arguing the QB situation and the surrounding talent and the strength of schedule, etc. but I'm not sure I can understand why someone would believe this guy doesn't have the talent to be a very special RB.

 

[Snotbubbles]

We've been through this already, but every RB that ends up in the top 5 is going to have to score a high amount of TDs. This is not exclusive to Willis. Look at Barber for a prime example. Yds have never been a problem for Tiki, but still his only year in the top 5 was last year. The year he finally hit the 15 TDs mark and only his 2nd time over 10 TDs in his career. The seperation in RB5 and RB10 or RB15 is so small its almost comical to get this much debate over it. Some have more confidence in Willis than rest of the field, others don't. The bottom line is that you can't find a single RB in that group that doesn't have major questions though.

Jurb,AGAIN YOU'RE IGNORING INFORMATION. Because McGahee won't get as many total yards as other RBs, he has to score MORE TDs than other backs to break the top 5. In fact, here are Edge's numbers and he finished at #6 (334-1548-9 | 51-483-0). When you look at McGahees yards per game over the last 12 games (109.5), he would have to get 1.) maintain his total yards per game (he missed games vs. JAX, NE, NYJ and OAK) and 2.) he has to score 14 TDs to score more points than Edge for the #6 spot. Then when you consider that Holmes should break into the top 5 assuming he can play 12 games, McGahee would have had to do all that to get to the #7 spot. So he's gonna have to either 1.) score more TDs to move up in the rankings; or 2.) he's gonna have to get more yards per game vs. a tougher schedule. It is very reasonable to believe that his yard per game will go down a bit this year, his field position will be worse, and he won't see as many touches inside the 10 as last year.

 

[jurb26]

Jurb,

AGAIN YOU'RE IGNORING INFORMATION. Because McGahee won't get as many total yards as other RBs, he has to score MORE TDs than other backs to break the top 5. In fact, here are Edge's numbers and he finished at #6 (334-1548-9 | 51-483-0). When you look at McGahees yards per game over the last 12 games (109.5), he would have to get 1.) maintain his total yards per game (he missed games vs. JAX, NE, NYJ and OAK) and 2.) he has to score 14 TDs to score more points than Edge for the #6 spot.

Then when you consider that Holmes should break into the top 5 assuming he can play 12 games, McGahee would have had to do all that to get to the #7 spot. So he's gonna have to either 1.) score more TDs to move up in the rankings; or 2.) he's gonna have to get more yards per game vs. a tougher schedule.

It is very reasonable to believe that his yard per game will go down a bit this year, his field position will be worse, and he won't see as many touches inside the 10 as last year.

Ignoring what information? You are taking last years numbers and trying to present them as FACT for what will happen this year. It is rather obvious that those who are high on Willis for next year do not agree with any of this.... they expect that he will get BETTER. This is something that you and all of the other Willis bashers ignore every time. I don't believe that Willis was playing at full speed last year. I watched this guy very carefully and in detail in college and what we saw last year was only a fraction on that RB (I would guesstimate around 80%). I expect that this year he will become much closer to that player again. I also expect that Losman will be an upgrade in the QB position for Buf. I can see a decrease per game for touches and redzone ops for Willis, but I also envision more games to ballance it out. I also think that Willis will become more involved in the passing game this year with a young QB behind center. He has always had the ability to catch the ball, just not the oportunity last year. You happen to disagree with all of this... big deal these are opinions, not facts. What I find comical is that people think they can simply peghole Willis' entire career based off of 1 incomplete season in which he was recovering from one of the worst injuries and RB can have. Do you not expect a player in Willis' situation to improve after a year in the league? If not, so be it. This however seems to be the flux of the debate to me. Either you think Willis will improve as a player from last year or you think he will stay the same. When the debate starts geting to the point that we are talking about schedule difficulty, I think its time to let it go. Nobody knows if Buf will have a tougher or easier run schedule next year. Teams change and it would just be guessing at this point in time.If you don't think or feel that Willis will improve next year, thats fine by me. We all have our own views on players. You have to understand though that a lot of people do think he will improve. So simply basing your arguement on last years numbers has little effect. The people ranking him in the top 5 see him BETTERING those numbers and performances!

 

[ko-jack]

I don't necessarily think McGahee is a safe bet to finish in the top-5, but he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10.

Is Kevin Jones any more likely to match his 2nd half production? Julius Jones? Is Clinton Portis capable of a top-10 season outside of Denver? Was Tiki Barber's TD production a fluke or will he get double digit TDs again to go with his great yardage totals? Jamal Lewis is coming off a trip to prison and a season in which he couldn't stay healthy and finished as the #25 ranked RB.

I just don't see a slam dunk player in this group that should overtake McGahee. That's my problem with saying he's overrated. Pretty much anybody in that spot is going to be overrated.

The thing is that other players in that group have better ypc and better receiving numbers along with the chance for lots of TDs. McGahee just has the TDs. That implies that McGahee is not as talented as his TD totals make people think he is.

Once again, just b/c McGahee didn't catch many balls last year doesn't mean that he won't catch many balls this year.

yea but how does it mean he will? if the new qb and team is playing from behind, you cant just keep the rush yds and tds the same and conclude he will catch more balls. wont he lose opportunites to kill clock and run over tired defenses late in games?

willis isnt in the same mold as a.green, barber, holmes, james, deuce, and other pass catcihng backs

lastly, 525 yards and 10 tds came vs the nfc west and cle, whom the bills dont play this year

 

[Snotbubbles]

lastly, 525 yards and 10 tds came vs the nfc west and cle, whom the bills dont play this year

The McGahee camp doesn't really want to look at this factor. Vs. the NFC West he amassed 496 total yards and 8 TDs (teams ranked 12th, 22d, 25th and 32d). I seriously doubt he'll get 496 total yards and 8 TDs vs. the NFC South this year with teams that were ranked (9th, 14th, 15th and 27th).Division games he amassed 429 total yards and 1 TD. Of course he wasn't starting in games vs. the Jets and Patriots so he can really pad his stats in those two extra division game he'll get. The way I see it, his only hope is to put up monster games vs. the AFC West. Of course in H2H leagues you'll get crushed, but if you're lucky enough to make the playoffs look at his playoff schedule:Week 14: New England (he had 49 total yds, 0 TDs) Week 15: Denver (10th ranked scoring D in 2004)Week 16: @Cincinnati (he had 26 total yds, 0 TDs)

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

lastly, 525 yards and 10 tds came vs the nfc west and cle, whom the bills dont play this year

The McGahee camp doesn't really want to look at this factor. Vs. the NFC West he amassed 496 total yards and 8 TDs (teams ranked 12th, 22d, 25th and 32d). I seriously doubt he'll get 496 total yards and 8 TDs vs. the NFC South this year with teams that were ranked (9th, 14th, 15th and 27th).Division games he amassed 429 total yards and 1 TD. Of course he wasn't starting in games vs. the Jets and Patriots so he can really pad his stats in those two extra division game he'll get.

The way I see it, his only hope is to put up monster games vs. the AFC West. Of course in H2H leagues you'll get crushed, but if you're lucky enough to make the playoffs look at his playoff schedule:

Week 14: New England (he had 49 total yds, 0 TDs)

Week 15: Denver (10th ranked scoring D in 2004)

Week 16: @Cincinnati (he had 26 total yds, 0 TDs)

Good luck against the AFC West run defense,2004 Final Rankings:

SD - #3

Den - #4

KC - #12

Oak - #22

 

[ko-jack]

lastly, 525 yards and 10 tds came vs the nfc west and cle, whom the bills dont play this year

The McGahee camp doesn't really want to look at this factor. Vs. the NFC West he amassed 496 total yards and 8 TDs (teams ranked 12th, 22d, 25th and 32d). I seriously doubt he'll get 496 total yards and 8 TDs vs. the NFC South this year with teams that were ranked (9th, 14th, 15th and 27th).Division games he amassed 429 total yards and 1 TD. Of course he wasn't starting in games vs. the Jets and Patriots so he can really pad his stats in those two extra division game he'll get.

The way I see it, his only hope is to put up monster games vs. the AFC West. Of course in H2H leagues you'll get crushed, but if you're lucky enough to make the playoffs look at his playoff schedule:

Week 14: New England (he had 49 total yds, 0 TDs)

Week 15: Denver (10th ranked scoring D in 2004)

Week 16: @Cincinnati (he had 26 total yds, 0 TDs)

i agree with your point, but those games/#s are out of context. willis didnt start/play in 1 NE game (henry 90+ yards), got hurt in the cinn game, in which b-lo beat up on cinn, and they play denver at home

 

[Snotbubbles]

agree with your point, but those games/#s are out of context. willis didnt start/play in 1 NE game (henry 90+ yards), got hurt in the cinn game, in which b-lo beat up on cinn, and they play denver at home

Are you trying to say the Willis McGahee can't hold up for a 12 game...err...16 game season.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

yea but how does it mean he will? if the new qb and team is playing from behind, you cant just keep the rush yds and tds the same and conclude he will catch more balls. wont he lose opportunites to kill clock and run over tired defenses late in games?

based solely on what he did last year, people have been saying that Willis won't get the receiving yards to make him an elite fantasy RB. I'm saying the QB change provides plenty of reason for optimism. I also think he'll break more big runs and get more work catching the ball when the team is playing from behind than he did last year. Getting all those carries while playing with a lead and from within the 10 yard line were also likely a huge factor in his low YPC that people are holding against him.Bottom line, he could see fewer carries but be more effective with them and also supplement those totals with receiving yardage.Hard as it is to believe for some, his performance last year is not as good as it gets for McGahee. As good as he was, there is plenty of room for improvement. I wish I could draft him as the #10 RB or later, but fact is that you just aren't going to be able to do that this year.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

LOFL We started this thread because several of the staff had McGahee as high as #3, and Rudnicki was defending his top 5 status.I love it...he's moving down the boards, just like we said he should. I don't find it too surprising that his consensus ranking is inline with ADPs out there, though.Lots of upside, lots of risk. Sounds like a late first rounder to me.

 

[Jason Wood]

LOFL

We started this thread because several of the staff had McGahee as high as #3, and Rudnicki was defending his top 5 status.

I love it...he's moving down the boards, just like we said he should. I don't find it too surprising that his consensus ranking is inline with ADPs out there, though.

Lots of upside, lots of risk. Sounds like a late first rounder to me.

Melly = Joe T Last time I checked, Joe T started this thread and you, as well as quite a few other people (myself included) chimed in saying we agreed, others came forth and disagreed.

The thread has turned out to be a good one, but there's no "WE" in Joe T.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

LOFL

We started this thread because several of the staff had McGahee as high as #3, and Rudnicki was defending his top 5 status.

I love it...he's moving down the boards, just like we said he should.  I don't find it too surprising that his consensus ranking is inline with ADPs out there, though.

Lots of upside, lots of risk.  Sounds like a late first rounder to me.

Melly = Joe T Last time I checked, Joe T started this thread and you, as well as quite a few other people (myself included) chimed in saying we agreed, others came forth and disagreed.

The thread has turned out to be a good one, but there's no "WE" in Joe T.

That's what YOU think. I was on the phone with my good iFriend™ JoeT laughing about the #3 ranking, and we decided to make an issue of it.Looks like it's working.

 

[Jason Wood]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

Edit:

Moving Down.

Concensus number 6 running back as of June 15, 2005.

LOFL

We started this thread because several of the staff had McGahee as high as #3, and Rudnicki was defending his top 5 status.

I love it...he's moving down the boards, just like we said he should.  I don't find it too surprising that his consensus ranking is inline with ADPs out there, though.

Lots of upside, lots of risk.  Sounds like a late first rounder to me.

Melly = Joe T Last time I checked, Joe T started this thread and you, as well as quite a few other people (myself included) chimed in saying we agreed, others came forth and disagreed.

The thread has turned out to be a good one, but there's no "WE" in Joe T.

That's what YOU think. I was on the phone with my good iFriend™ JoeT laughing about the #3 ranking, and we decided to make an issue of it.Looks like it's working.

Hmmm, well you need to chat with your GB iFriend HoeT b/c he certainly didn't give you any credit in the initial post.

 

[Joe T]

Hmmm, well you need to chat with your GB iFriend HoeT b/c he certainly didn't give you any credit in the initial post.

Actually I did give him credit... but since ARud combined all the McGahee threads into one it is probably buried somewhere in the middle of this thread.I'll do a quick search, but this is actually the second McGahee thread I started and the first one I started actually gave credit where it was due™.

 

[Joe T]

Wood>

here you go.

Link

Looks like Arud missed a thread when he combined them all.

 

[Jason Wood]

Hmmm, well you need to chat with your GB iFriend HoeT b/c he certainly didn't give you any credit in the initial post. 

Actually I did give him credit... but since ARud combined all the McGahee threads into one it is probably buried somewhere in the middle of this thread.I'll do a quick search, but this is actually the second McGahee thread I started and the first one I started actually gave credit where it was due™.

Hmmm, don't recall you giving me any credit? I've had McGahee out of my top 10 from jump street. I'm sure it was just an oversight GB.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Hmmm, well you need to chat with your GB iFriend HoeT b/c he certainly didn't give you any credit in the initial post. 

Actually I did give him credit... but since ARud combined all the McGahee threads into one it is probably buried somewhere in the middle of this thread.I'll do a quick search, but this is actually the second McGahee thread I started and the first one I started actually gave credit where it was due™.

Hmmm, don't recall you giving me any credit? I've had McGahee out of my top 10 from jump street. I'm sure it was just an oversight GB.

WE appreciated your support of our position.

 

[Jason Wood]

Hmmm, well you need to chat with your GB iFriend HoeT b/c he certainly didn't give you any credit in the initial post. 

Actually I did give him credit... but since ARud combined all the McGahee threads into one it is probably buried somewhere in the middle of this thread.I'll do a quick search, but this is actually the second McGahee thread I started and the first one I started actually gave credit where it was due™.

Hmmm, don't recall you giving me any credit? I've had McGahee out of my top 10 from jump street. I'm sure it was just an oversight GB.

WE appreciated your support of our position.

Thanks

 

[Joe T]

holy schnikes... did you guys look back at the other thread linked above?He was actually concensus #4 RB on May 5th, when Melly T. gave me the iphone call™. I've updated the trend on the first post of this thread....moving down.

 

[jurb26]

moving down.

Which is all the better for those of us who like him.

 

[wilked]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Edit:

Conscensus #4 RB as of May 5, 2005

Edit:

Moving down.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

Edit:

Moving Down.

Concensus number 6 running back as of June 15, 2005.

No surprises thus far, as predicted he is droppingGraphing it up, it is fairly linear. Looks like around draft time he will be close to where I would consider drafting him

http://img64.echo.cx/img64/9387/mcgahee1yr.jpg

 

[Stinger Ray]

so, Deuce's numbers were hurt significantly by a minor injury in 2004, yet he's less of an injury risk than McGahee?

i don't understand it either

 

[Stinger Ray]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

Wilked, who will finish ahead of him?

Shaun AlexanderTiki Barber

Ahman Green

Priest Holmes

Edgerrin James

Julius Jones

Kevin Jones

Jamal Lewis

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

[Stinger Ray]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

not as much as mcallister

 

[Noahs Troopers]

McGahee is currently 8th in my league for RBS.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

After week 5, Willis is ranked #8 in YTD points among RBs, and #13 in fantasy points/game.Other comparable RBsillon: #6 YTD; #10 PPGJ.Jones: #10 YTD; #15 PPGDeuce: #12 YTD; #16 PPGTiki: #11 YTD; #5 PPGPriest: #16 YTD; #12 PPGD.Davis: #19 YTD; #17 PPGPortis: #24 YTD; #19 PPGJ.Lewis: #28 YTD; #22 PPGK.Jones: #29 YTD; #24 PPGA.Green: #35 YTD; #31 PPGedit: JoeT> hi!