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RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe T
- Start date
packersfan
Footballguy
It's amazing what a mediocre RB McGahee has become in such a short period of time.
The Bills offensive line is not awesome
packersfan
Footballguy
True, but plenty of other top-flight RBs have been able to do well despite offensive line and/or QB issues. It's not like the Bills' line or their passing game were great last season but McGahee still generated quality rushing production. But he's in a massive slump now and he's not looking good at all. He looks like Eddie George -- during his Cowboy days.From a fantasy perspective, it's hard to justify ranking McGahee inside the Top 25 at RB right now. Gado is outperforming him again today and even guys like Kevan Barlow and Patrick Pass are doing more.
Unless he turns his season around starting next week he will join Kevin Jones as one of the biggest busts in fantasy this season. I'm a McGahee fan, but there's no ignoring the lack of production. He's killing his fantasy owners and he's not exactly helping the Bills much lately either.
The Chargers had the #1 rushing defense in the league, and the Panthers I believe were ranked #4.I agree he's not looking that good lately, but he's also not getting any room to run. He deserves some of the blame, but I think the offensive line and coaching staff deserve more.
packersfan
Footballguy
Portis went for 87 yards today against the Chargers (albeit on 29 carries but he still got the production) and Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson both ran well against the Bears last week. When Adrian Peterson looks better than you do, it's time to wonder how good you really are. I realize things could be better for McGahee, but he's not helping the situation. I haven't seen him run with authority in a very long time. And from a fantasy perspective, there's no question he's turning into a gigantic bust. Even if he finishes well that won't change the fact he has been absolutely brutal for weeks and having only 4 TDs through 11 games is nothing short of pathetic. Gado has done better than that and he hasn't started anywhere near the number of games that McGahee has started this season either (and the Packers' line problems in terms of the running game have been well documented).
the Bears offensive line is MUCH better than this Bills offensive line.Mike Williams is a bust, Bennie Anderson is turning out to be one of the worst free agent signings in the league this year, and guys like Mike Gandy, Jason Peters and Trey Teague are all below average linemen. I expected the offensive line to be a solid run blocking unit this year and I think they have been a much bigger disappointment then McGahee so far.But, I agree McGahee is not delivering for fantasy owners as he should be over the past month or so. Very disappointing.
packersfan
Footballguy
He's not helping the Bills much either.
that's a given.but, he's far from the biggest problem on that team right now.
bottom line is that the Bills aren't going to beat a team like the Colts, Broncos, Chargers, or Steelers in the playoffs so they are better off building for next year anyway. Fortunately, it looks like they found their QB as Losman looks pretty good to me. With Losman, McGahee, Evans in place...they really need to work on upgrading the offensive line this year, along with patching up the defense and hopefully bringing back Nate Clements.
packersfan
Footballguy
One would think if the Bills have found their QB in Losman and with quality WRs in place like Moulds and Evans, McGahee would be able to muster up more than 50 yards rushing or so a game if he was the elite RB many folks (myself included) once believed him to be.
wilked
Footballguy
Thanks again for the heads up on this preseason Joe-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I've got him 16th.Welcome aboard!
I'm predicting many other riders on this train in the coming months.
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan
# Running Back NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts
--- -------------------- --- -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- ----- -----
1 Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 11 47 4 3 3 0 1086 236 17 1 315 37 2 268.5
2 Alexander,Shaun SEA 11 0 0 0 0 0 1339 263 20 0 52 10 0 259.1
3 James,Edgerrin IND 11 0 0 0 0 0 1240 276 11 1 225 28 1 218.5
4 Jordan,Lamont OAK 11 0 0 0 0 0 789 218 9 0 483 59 2 193.2
5 Barber,Tiki NYG 11 0 0 0 0 0 1118 222 6 1 312 31 1 185.0
6 Johnson,Larry KC 11 0 0 0 0 0 968 191 9 3 220 20 0 172.8
7 Jackson,Steven STL 11 0 0 0 0 0 845 192 7 3 281 36 2 166.6
8 Westbrook,Brian PHI 11 0 0 0 0 0 597 148 3 0 578 56 4 159.5
9 Dunn,Warrick ATL 11 0 0 0 0 0 1094 212 3 1 151 22 1 148.5
10 Johnson,Rudi CIN 11 0 0 0 0 0 968 234 7 0 53 15 0 144.1
11 Portis,Clinton WAS 11 0 0 0 0 0 943 222 5 2 180 23 0 142.3
12 Anderson,Mike DEN 11 0 0 0 0 0 813 187 8 2 122 14 0 141.5
13 Jones,Thomas CHI 10 0 0 0 0 0 912 217 6 2 116 20 0 138.8
14 Brown,Chris TEN 11 0 0 0 0 0 692 170 5 3 272 21 2 138.4
15 Droughns,Reuben CLE 11 0 0 0 0 0 941 211 2 1 300 31 0 136.1
16 McGahee,Willis BUF 11 0 0 0 0 0 948 236 4 1 119 17 0 130.7
wilked
Footballguy
Bump for the weekend crowd.It seems a lot of people were more than willing to chastise Joe when he went against the eggspurts and sheep out there. He has taken a lot of abuse, only right that some apologies are issued.Also, prob best to combine this newest thread with this one
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=3947510When grown men resort to a 'group hug' for a player, you know things have gotten bad :rofl:
ren hoek
Footballguy
ehhhhhh.McGahee would be doing fine right now if Holcomb were still in there (as if I can't see some rere giving me the point-at-the-shirt smiley). I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, so it's really no sweat off my sack.Wrong on both counts it looks like.Eat up GB.Willis McGahee = complete and total pwnership of anyone who ranked him outside of the top 10
I look forward to 10 more weeks of backpedaling by Joe T. I like how he said 'where did i say i wasn't wrong?' and then edited in 'nobody is right or wrong yet'.
edit: changed ###### to rere, as I didn't know that ###### was censored.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Does that qualify as backpedaling?ehhhhhh.McGahee would be doing fine right now if Holcomb were still in there (as if I can't see some rere giving me the point-at-the-shirt smiley). I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, so it's really no sweat off my sack.Wrong on both counts it looks like.Eat up GB.Willis McGahee = complete and total pwnership of anyone who ranked him outside of the top 10
I look forward to 10 more weeks of backpedaling by Joe T. I like how he said 'where did i say i wasn't wrong?' and then edited in 'nobody is right or wrong yet'.
edit: changed ###### to rere, as I didn't know that ###### was censored.
ren hoek
Footballguy
I'd call it speculation. It's a pretty well-established fact that J.P. Losman sucks. At least Holcomb could get the ball to Moulds once in a while.Does that qualify as backpedaling?ehhhhhh.McGahee would be doing fine right now if Holcomb were still in there (as if I can't see some rere giving me the point-at-the-shirt smiley). I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, so it's really no sweat off my sack.Wrong on both counts it looks like.Eat up GB.Willis McGahee = complete and total pwnership of anyone who ranked him outside of the top 10
I look forward to 10 more weeks of backpedaling by Joe T. I like how he said 'where did i say i wasn't wrong?' and then edited in 'nobody is right or wrong yet'.
edit: changed ###### to rere, as I didn't know that ###### was censored.
It isn't. What is established is he needs to develop.
packersfan
Footballguy
As a McGahee owner who believed he was easily a Top 10 RB this season I have no problem admitting I was wrong. No doubt about it. He'll need the finish to beat all finishes to erase the disappointment of the last several weeks which --- coincidentally --- coincides with his crowning himself the best RB in the league. There's something wrong with the guy and it goes far beyond Losman, the line, playcalling etc. There's something wrong with McGahee and that's been a huge factor in his poor production of late.So yeah, I'll admit I was wrong and I definitely over-rated him. A great RB makes everyone around him better and overcomes obstacles. McGahee has yet to show he can do either one of those things.
godeepthreatz1
Footballguy
Honestly I'm tired of the kid. Watching his games are brutal. He's always rolling on the turf hurt, he's indecisive, and all his best runs are called back on holding calls. He's riding my bench from here on out.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Where's jurb at? He was killing me for ranking Tiki Barber ahead of McGahee. Like I said before, I'd rather take the RB that racks up the total yardage and doesn't need to rely on the TDs before I take the guy who NEEDS to score 14+ TDs to make the top 5. That way at least your first round pick will finish in the top 10. It would suck to pick a RB with a 5th-8th pick and have the guy finish 15th.
GoBills02
Footballguy
Kelly Holcomb? JP has been the only bright spot for this team in the last 2-3 weeks.Or did you just watch the Sportscenter highlights of the SD game and assume Losman sucked? He was the best player out there, and with out OL copying an Arena league OL, JP made plays that would have put Holcomb on his back.JP is the future, and has been steadily improving.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Do you have a spreadsheet that tracks all the Shark Pool predictions made by various members?
f'in McGaheelooks like a good call by the h8ers at this point. I still don't think people who drafted Deuce McAllister, Kevin Jones, or Julius Jones ahead of him would be too pleased with those picks right now. Tiki Barber was clearly underrated AGAIN this year and belonged up there ahead of Willis.
packersfan
Footballguy
Probably not but those people who picked any of these RBs after McGahee have to be thrilled:Barber
Jordan
Westbrook
Jackson
Rudi Johnson
Thomas Jones
Chris Brown
I'd include Domanick Davis in that group as well since he's missed two games and still ranks ahead of McGahee in a lot of leagues and is a proven second-half finisher who looks poised to have a third straight strong second half.
And that's not including guys like Warrick Dunn, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns and Stephen Davis who all went much later than McGahee and are performing better or at the same level.
There's only one word to describe McGahee through 12 weeks and that's Bust. Whether that changes in the last five weeks remains to be seen. He certainly has a great matchup this week but are there any McGahee owners feeling real confident he'll take advantage of it? I'm more hopeful at this point than confident because I've seen nothing from McGahee for the better part of a month that inspires any confidence.
he really faded in the past month or so, ever since opening his mouth and claiming to be the best RB in the league. Rather than getting better, the offensive line has also gotten progressively worse.a big game this week against Miami would certainly help, but even my confidence in Willis has been shaken. He doesn't look like the same player he was last year or early this year.
packersfan
Footballguy
Not even close. That's why I think there's something going on with him and the blame can't be all on Losman, the line or the playcalling. Mularkey has strongly hinted that McGahee's effort needs to improve and based on how he's running I would agree with that. This is a guy who excelled last season despite a suspect offensive line and one of the worst passing games in the league so the line/Losman argument isn't going to cut it with me. As I said before, a great RB makes everyone around him better and McGahee isn't doing that. He's failing and he's a big part of the problem right now.He definitely has the talent to do well and this is clearly a good matchup for him against the Dolphins. But Kevin Jones has had great matchups this season and flopped. Last season, Kevan Barlow had great matchups and flopped. McGahee isn't a Bust on those levels -- not yet anyway -- but just like those two RBs when you start him now you do so hoping he'll do well rather than believing he'll do well.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
He looks like EXACTLY the same player to me. As I said in the thread I started last December when the hype machine started seriously cranking for this kid, he's simply not as "talented" as everyone thought he was. Maybe it was the horrific injury. I don't know, but even when he was "lighting it up" fantasy-wise, I wasn't all that impressed. He's a GOOD back, not a GREAT back. When things are going well (and he's getting oodles of carries on the goal-line like he was back then), he is perfectly capable of getting you some points. But he's not the kind of back that'll generate a lot on his own, and as far as I can tell he really hasn't been that kind of back since the injury. He's not particularly hard to bring down, he doesn't have particularly great speed (anymore) and isn't particularly elusive. He's not BAD at any of those things, but he's not great at any of them either.At the end of last year people kept talking about how he was still recovering from the injury and would be getting "better" this year. I just didn't think then and don't think now that ANY injury is going to get significantly better more than 2 years after it happened. Dude had the injury in January of 2003, so December 2004 was two years (and it's now been three). I know that bad injuries take a while to get better, but my feeling was that after two years, it's more than likely as good as it's going to get.
But at least a few of us saw EXACTLY what is happening right now coming. He's still not heavily involved in the passing game, his average is still mediocre, he still doesn't break a lot of big runs, and now he's not getting all the goal-line love he was getting when the team was better (and was going against really poor defenses).
What I'm saying is that McGahee hasn't changed at all - he just doesn't look as great when things aren't perfectly lined up for him.
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McGahee was very hard to bring down last year. He used to move piles for 2 or 3 yards even when there were 2 or 3 guys trying to bring him down. He also showed unbelievable vision and patience and could turn a run that most RBs would lose yardage on into a gain of a couple yards. He's not running with the same power or patience he used to, and there are no holes for him to run through anyway, so the problem is magnified.
BigJim®
Footballguy
*Very*Does that qualify as backpedaling?ehhhhhh.McGahee would be doing fine right now if Holcomb were still in there (as if I can't see some rere giving me the point-at-the-shirt smiley). I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, so it's really no sweat off my sack.Wrong on both counts it looks like.Eat up GB.Willis McGahee = complete and total pwnership of anyone who ranked him outside of the top 10
I look forward to 10 more weeks of backpedaling by Joe T. I like how he said 'where did i say i wasn't wrong?' and then edited in 'nobody is right or wrong yet'.
edit: changed ###### to rere, as I didn't know that ###### was censored.
I guess some people get to be right whether they are right or wrong based on his [quite pathetic] response to this question. It was widely known that Losman would be a starter this year and dantheman called people out for having McGahee anywhere outside the top 10 despite that fact. But Losman stinks and he still gets to be right and his ridicule of Joe T stands? Please.
Joe T
Footballguy
I like this post.*Very*Does that qualify as backpedaling?ehhhhhh.McGahee would be doing fine right now if Holcomb were still in there (as if I can't see some rere giving me the point-at-the-shirt smiley). I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, so it's really no sweat off my sack.Wrong on both counts it looks like.Eat up GB.Willis McGahee = complete and total pwnership of anyone who ranked him outside of the top 10
I look forward to 10 more weeks of backpedaling by Joe T. I like how he said 'where did i say i wasn't wrong?' and then edited in 'nobody is right or wrong yet'.
edit: changed ###### to rere, as I didn't know that ###### was censored.
drdgreenlove
Footballguy
I dont have the patience to read all 20 pages.. I am a former ownerhere is what is comes down to:Tomlinson produced even with a crap QB2002 Brees's rating was 76.92003 Brees's rating was 67.52002 LT2- 372-1683-14 TD rushing plus 489 receiving with 1 TD2003-LT2- 313-1645-13 TD rushing plus 725 receiving with 4 TD2005- Losman;s rating 65.3 (and holcomb was 91.2 in 5 starts)2005- Mcgahee (so far) 948 yards with 4 TD... on pace for 1378 yards and 6 TD.1378 yards isnt horrible but it pales in comparison to Tomlinson and is over 100 fantasy points lessTomlinson produced with a bad QB... There was no Gates then. There was no McCardell... I'm sure teams stacked the line against LT2 just as they are doing against Willis yet somehow LT2 averaged 4.5-5 ypc...Nw LT2 is a great RB. Willis is likely a good RB but he needs a complete team to be productive whereas all LT2 needs is the ball to be productive. Willis is a bust this year and in retrospect was overrated... in part because he cant carry the team on his shoulders....Plus Willis has put up many stinkers...he has 5 games with 7 or less points so far... (on pace for 7)LT2 had 3 in 2003 and had 2 in 2002.... much more consistent
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Agree 100% that Willis is running more tentatively and falling down after the first hit more often than ever, frustrating to watch. Also, call me crazy, but even his face looks more passive, careless, more of a "whatever" expression even when he gets stuffed for a loss of three...pisses me off.BUT, let's not forget that over the past several weeks he's played against two of the top 3 rush D's (SD, CAR), plus the Chiefs whose run-stopping has improved greatly, and the Raiders back when they were tougher against the run. He's got MIA today (who is bad against the run, #24), NE in Week 14 (the #21 Pats D isn't what it once was, run-wise), and CIN in Week 16 (#25). Only top-rated DEN in Week 15 scares McGahee owners.So, while he is indeed a huuuue first round bust, he could put up some nicer numbers down the stretch...and once again tempt poor b@stards into drafting him too high next season, too. 
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I think it needs to be clarified whether this is Dynasty or redraft. In a redraft I would agree that top 5 would be a little aggressive. In a Dynasty league I could see McGahee going in the top 3 in non PPR leagues. Clarification is needed.It is tough to predict the offense around a player, but when you play in Buffalo, you will need to run the ball and anyone that has any scouting ability at all can see that Mcgahee is clearly a top 5 talent in running the ball.BTW, Edge is on a pace for 400 carries this year. Edge has an interesting running style, but if he were in Buffalo, his YPC would be worse than McGahee's. Running into dime defenses all day long makes life MUCH easier.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yeah but you knew Losman was going to have growing pains...or at least you should have suspected it. But the common response from McGahee supporters was that Losman couldn't be any worse than Bledsoe. There were questions about the loss at OL and how that would effect them...but still McGahee supporters failed to recognize the warning signs. Then they were pointed to the incredible year the defense and special teams had, giving McGahee some nice starting field positions. But not only did they lose players on the defense, a reasonable person could assume that they wouldn't be as effective. Still the McGahee supporters turned a blind eye.Then there was the easy schedule McGahee faced and how he ran up TDs and yardage against some of the weakest rush defenses in the league, but was mediocre at best against any defense that was half decent against the run. Still McGahee supporters tried to explain it away.Then there was the outrageous amounts of goalline carries he recieved last year and the strong possibility that he wouldn't even come close to matching that amount this year. When you consider that he doesn't rack up a ton of total yardage and needs those TDs to be a top back, you had to be concerned. Still McGahee supporters ignored what was in front of them.Then there is his injury, and the possibility that maybe, just maybe he will never fully recover and be the back he was in college. That still remains to be seen, but you have to figure its been 3 years since the injury. At some point in time you gotta just say this is as healthy as he's gonna get.All the signs were there that McGahee was a bust at 5 (where he was originally ranked), and was a stretch at 8. It's impossible for anyone who read this thread in the offseason not to recognize that.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I agree Willis has been a bust based on where everyone drafted him this year :X
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
let's clarify something here....JoeT and I were NOT haters. We just weren't homers, and when we crunched the numbers, and looked at the personnel, we couldn't see McGahee in the top 5. JoeT was more right than I was...I had him top 10.
packersfan
Footballguy
Did you start Hicks? Turned out to be pretty much a wash in many leagues -- and Hicks stunk up the joint. Tells you how bad McGahee is.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I figured this would get bumped, so I'll do it myself.
I will now concede that Willis McGahee was indeed overrated this year.good call by JoeT and others.
packersfan
Footballguy
The bigger question now is did the Bills over-rate McGahee and do they need to be worried about their RB situation?
I still think he's a talented player who will do much better with improved blocking up front. The offensive line play of the Bills this year has probably been in the bottom 5 of the league.I still feel pretty good about having him as the Bills RB for the future. If they make a coaching change this offseason, I hope whoever they brings in rides him a lot more than Mularkey has been willing to do lately. He's still a workhorse who you can rely on for 20-25 carries every week.
packersfan
Footballguy
For about 50 yards.
I think 90+% of NFL RBs would struggle behind the Bills offensive line of this year. He was often hit in the backfield and was rarely able to run downhill.For about 50 yards.
Pat Patriot
Footballguy
Did it really take until today for anyone to admit that McGahee is a bust? (McGahee owner
). I didnt draft him but even worse traded for him after week 5.
