Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We have so little to cover and lots of time...wait reverse that. I know many of you have lots to think about this week. Weather is not a major factor but in a handful of games compared to last week. We should see an increase in QB and WR productivity this week FYI...
Let's ROLL!!!
Kansas City (8-5) at St Louis (6-7) Pk’em (43)
It really is hard to speculate because we don’t know if Cassel will play or not…folks let me tell you that come hell or high water Cassel will play this weekend even if he hands off 55 times because without him the Chiefs looked like Pop Warner scrubs. The Rams really need this game if they are going to close the deal. Seattle looks lost and while the Rams are not there yet they have the better player ultimately in Sam Bradford.
Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Assuming Cassel can go you gotta roll Charles out there inside the dome. Fast track and he has the jets to take it all the way. Rams are 5th in the NFL in defensive rushing TDs allowed so it’s not a terrific match up by any stretch but I’ll take the talent over the stats this week.
Steven Jackson – Jackson has had a pretty mediocre year. The last 2 weeks he has come up with 18 and 16 in PPR formats. KC is not amazing in most statistical defensive categories so there isn’t an overwhelming reason to not start SJax. He just hasn’t had a lot of big upside games this season.
Final Score: Kansas City 20…St Louis 17
Houston (5-8) at Tennessee (5-8) (-1) (47)
The Texans are now 1-6 their last 7 games. Gary Kubiak unfortunately will have to be let go after the season. 5 years and no playoff trips but the team is sure fun to watch. The MNF game was a heartbreaker and somewhere down the road the fans deserve a better outcome. Low and behold the one tem they did manage to beat along the way is the Tennessee Titans who they thumped 20-0 the week after Vince Young and Jeff Fisher had their meltdown.
Arian Foster – He’s the #1 back in fantasy football so I cannot imagine in a game that should see plenty of scoring why you would even think of leaving him off your starting roster. 15+ in PPR
Chris Johnson – Denver somehow is 6th in rushing yards allowed and 32nd in pass defense but Tennessee is not a great throwing team. I imagine Collins will find some holes and be able to give Johnson a few open running lanes. He started coming on last week and maybe the Titans can set some screens up here as well. Johnson is still a top7 back and no way you think about benching him but it could be a little tough for him to find running lanes early. 15-20+ in PPR this week.
Final Score: Houston 30…Tennessee 24
Jacksonville (8-5) at Indianapolis (7-6) (-5) (48)
One of the major games on the board this week in terms of playoff implications. I am certainly shocked that Jax is sitting in 1st place in week 15. Jaguars fans do too judging by empty seats I saw this past weekend on television and that was with parts of the stadium being tarped over. Indy should have won the 1st meeting but some good bounces went the right way for Jax. Sometimes teams are exposed during this time of year or in these types of games. Problem is the Colts are not healthy and Jax can run the ball. They’ll need to in order to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines.
MJD – He’s the #5 RB in FF over the past 4-5 weeks, #7 overall on the season so even with the fluky Jennings touches he is absolutely an auto start every week.
Rashard Jennings – Interesting stuff the last 3 weeks but he is simply a compliment to MJD, not a major cog in the wheel there. If Jennings didn’t touch the ball MJD would be in the 35 range for touches per game and that’s too many.
Donald Brown/Jav James – Brown has almost no upside. 12, 5, 13, 12, 1, and 9 the last 6 weeks. James has done OK the last couple weeks but the TDs make his numbers feel pretty fluky. Avoid if you can.
Final Score: Indy 28…Jacksonville 21
Arizona (4-9) at Carolina (1-12) (-2.5) (37.5)
Somehow by the grace of whatever, the Arizona Cardinals are still mathematically alive in the playoff race. And while they seem to win a new game every time they change QB for a week, typically the next team they face figures it out pretty quick. Carolina is in a race to get the #1 pick in the draft next season. Cinci is close in record but I think they will win this week in the next game I am going to review. So Carolina can win this week and likely still have the upper hand for worst record in the NFL. Buffalo and Detroit both went to 3-10 last week.
Tim Hightower – Last 6 weeks…13/39, 13/39/TD, 12/62, Nill(5/0), 15/81, 18/148/2TDs…honestly he has a couple mediocre games and then a couple where you could start him in the flex, and then last week he blew the doors off the place. Of course he had another fumble but how come QBs can avg an interception per week and nothing is said about it, RB has 4-5 fumbles in the season and they are looked upon as if they have leprosy. What the stats due show though is he really is the only RB you can look at here. Wells has become worthless and even in dynasty has taken a gigantic hit this season. Hightower will continue to produce and this is year 3 for him. At some point he will leave Arizona and go to another team IMO, and will do very well. I like him as an acquisition that won’t cost an arm and a leg in dynasty.
JStew(Hi SLBD) – Last 3 weeks…12/98/21/92/TD, 18/133…He is avg 12 ppg over that span and clearly he is who the panthers want to feed. Assuming he is healthy I would look to play him as a solid RB2 this week if you are in a pinch or rolling between him and another iffy RB2/3. I’m sure many have option to go with JStew if you made it this far so please post your options in the feedback section. I like him and Arizona can look OK one week and putrid the next. It’s an away game, the bookies are favoring the 1 and 12 Panthers so something is up.
Goodson – 21-22 points the last 2 weeks total. He is not the focus of the offense and I probably would lean away from him at this point although he looked very good about a month ago.
Final Score: Carolina 17…Arizona 13
Cleveland (5-8) at Cincinnati (2-11) (-2) (40)
The Browns could have really done themselves some good by winning last week and making a push to be .500 in the 2nd and 3rd week of December. That probably would have saved Mangini’s job. I will also say that so many head coaching vacancies are going to spring up...Cinci, TN, Hou, Oak, Den, SF, AZ, Car, Det, MN, Dal, Was, Mia…all those teams could possibly make a coaching change or in the case of Washington, Shanny might just walk away from it. I’ll get to the Skins in a little while and I’m not saying all those teams definitely make a change but most of them are unstable right now and I can give you a variety of reasons why for each. Back on topic…there is no topic here. A couple of lousy teams but there is FF gold at the RB spots here this weekend.
Peyton Hillis – A bad fumble here and for dynasty owners that have backed the truck up for this guy don’t forget they drafted a 2nd round RB this season in Hardesty who will be in the mix more next year. Hillis will likely see a split in touches so don’t get used to the 2010 season being the norm for him. I would go so far as to say it likely is his career year. Call me a hater I care not. He has a great season and for the last many weeks I not said an ill word but be honest and search your true feelings this off season. I warn you now. This week start him with confidence.
Cedric Benson – Very mediocre year but if he is in rotation at your RB2/3 spot you might want to roll the dice this week. Why??? Cleveland has allowed 160 yards on the ground for the past 5 weeks. Benson will likely hit the top20 if not top10 this week. 15-20 points well within reach for him. Yes I have him in about half green.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Cleveland 20
Buffalo (3-10) at Miami (7-6) (-5.5) (41)
Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller – Miami has been brutal against the run the past 3 weeks. Only allowing an avg of 50 yards on the ground. I know there are many Fred Jackson owners but I cannot in good faith make him an auto start or strong play this week. Most of you toggle him and someone else so again if you have better options I would look there. I love Freddie’s determination and drive but Miami is solid in rush defense under Nolan. Also Lee Evans is out and the defense can focus on Stevie Jackson, with little to stretch the defense I can’t see Jackson carving up the Miami rush defense. Miami has a real chance to get to 9-6 before facing New England. Sporano’s head is on the chop block and I think the team overall likes playing for him, look for them to respond this week.
Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – You are a gambling fool. Which one scores and which one has the big day? Ricky has had some big days against Buffalo so maybe the FF Gods are on his side but again there is never anything you can really hang your hat on here.
Final Score: Miami 17…Buffalo 14
Philly (9-4) at NY Giants (9-4) (-2.5) (46)
One of the many playoff games this weekend and that is essentially what you have with 3 weeks to go and the division on the line. This is going to be a heavyweight fight with both teams trying to exchange blows. Look for the Giants to establish the run. Nicks is still not 100% form what I could see and Steve Smith is on IR, Manningham is not responding either. Philly will counter with Michael Vick. I wonder what Dallas, New York, and Washington fans feel when they hear Vick say he wants to stay in Philly. Andy Reid has maximized what Vick can do as an NFL QB so I don’t blame him for wanting to stay with good coaching. If Vick stay you have to look at Philly as a title contender for the next 4-5 years as long as he is under center.
LeSean McCoy – Keep riding the gravy train. I know the Giants are a bit tougher than most of the defenses he faces but they will have their hands full trying to contain Michael Vick. I am open to suggestions but I can’t see sitting a top5 RB unless you have superior match ups with proven RBs.
Ahmad Bradshaw – I tried to tell you all last week not to bench this guy. He has a forearm injury but it’s not broken to my knowledge. He really makes the offense even without the starting WRs much more diverse. He can catch the ball even though he is typically not the focus. I would pay attention to the IR this week but you probably need him in your line up. This guy gets no respect but he is top10 on the season.
Brandon Jacobs – He really has come alive at the right time. Huge run last week that really took the wind out of Minnesota. I doubt you can rely on that each week and I still feel Bradshaw gets the larger part of the load week in and week out. Not sure you can count on Jacobs unless he is the only RB going in this game. He probably is the RB3 or RB4 on your roster going into week 10+ so you might have other options to discuss.
Final Score: Philly 24…NY Giants 21
Washington (5-8) at Dallas (4-9) (-6) (46)
The Skins for most of the season were win a game, lose a game, or lose a game, win a game, but they were 5-5 and then lost a close game, got blown out against the Giants and then lost a game they should have dominates last week against TB. So they really are not as horrid as their record however they also are not very good right now either. It’s hard to see where Shanny has put his stamp on the team and I believe there is a 50/50 chance he might walk away from this mess after year 1. I can’t see where things are going to get leaps and bounds better next year and he has to face Dallas, NY, and Philly twice a year, all of them have superior QBs IMO. This is a nightmare for him right now and he also has taken a lot of heat for the Haynesworth situation which is handicapping them going out and rebuilding the team. A lot of money flushed down the drain there. Meanwhile Jason Garrett is a Roy Williams fumble and perhaps another FG short of being 5-0 as head coach. He still needs to finish strong but clearly he is going to be in line to takeover or get a few interviews at several other clubs should he want to do that. So many good coaches and asst coaches plus guys walking the sidelines with rings around their fingers, that it’s going to be a wild off season for head coaching vacancies.
Ryan Torain – He was lighting it up last week. I don’t think we see a repeat this week but he probably can still be good for a solid 60-75 and a 50/50 shot at a TD this week in Big D.
Choice/Felix – Let me break this down as Dallas has had better stats in the rush dept the last 3-4 weeks but if you look closer the numbers are different. 134-DET…Kitna had 40, Jones 50…144-NO…Austin had 60 of it…217-Indy…Choice 100/TD, Jones 22/83…110-
Philly, FJ 40/TD, Kitna 27, Austin 26…point is the pie gets broken up amongst many. You can’t think more than a flex for any of these guys and they likely have not been carrying you the whole way anyways. The match up looks a little juicy on paper but think it through.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Washington 17
Detroit (3-10) at Tampa Bay (8-5) (-5.5) (43)
I went thru the Blount hype last week and I think we know who was right on that prediction so no reason to rub it in(didn’t you just do that MOP?). Seriously if you own Blount and you are still alive you probably like the match up this week and I think you will be happy come Sunday Night. Detroit is 22nd in yards allowed, 24th in yards per carry, and 29th in rushing TDs allowed.
Morris/Best – The rush defense for Tampa Bay is terrible. 27th in yds and 30th in yds per attempt, and McCoy their rookie DT who has been starting all year is out for this game and perhaps a little while longer. I hate to shoot for the moon but Best could get loose in this game. I kept thinking as I was doing the game recap for the Bucs last week that a guy with some real speed could have taken a couple of those runs to the house. I’m sure Detroit will be thinking the same thing so my wildcard pick this week will be Best although he is really only for owners that have their backs against the walls. Both of these RBs are limited in practice as I am writing this but I still see Best being the better option if he is active for Sunday. Can Detroit exploit a poor rush defense? Let’s discuss not cuss.
Blount – I think you know I am optimistic for him this week. He is not a 15-20 point guarantee but he does have enough in his favor to expect something in the 70-100 yard range and perhaps a 60% chance or higher of a TD. Some might be even more optimistic than I am.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19…Detroit 16
New Orleans (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4) (-2) (43.5)
I’m surprised Baltimore is favored. The weather is not going to be a huge factor. Yes, it will be cold but right now a majority of the games in the NFL are not going to be like they were last week. I am seeing low 30s and a light wind. New Orleans can operate in those conditions and I expect them to look like the Super Bowl Champs this weekend. Baltimore has just been OK lately. And while the NO rush defense is so so, their pass defense is pretty solid so Flacco owners beware.
Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Chris Ivory/MOP/DD – The reality here is that Ivory has a hamstring/muscle pull whatever and likely is not going to play. Thomas has been in the doghouse for a while but they need him and he is pretty healthy so look for him to carry the ball a good amount, maybe 15+ carries and a few receptions as he can do both. Reggie Bush??? He is close to 100% and I expect him to be a decent flex option this week. Look for New Orleans to take to the air and Bush to get more receptions than hand offs.
Ray Rice – You Ray Rice haters can go to (insert). Seriously this guy has 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 6 games and 20+ points in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s top10 in avg over the last 6 weeks, not sure what you are expecting but he surely is capable of going out and producing 15-20 this week because NO is good against the pass and his dump offs will be part of the game plan as Mason, Boldin, and the rest will be covered. You gotta play Rice IMO.
Final Score: New Orleans 30…Baltimore 20
Atlanta (11-2) at Seattle (6-7) (+6) (45)
The Falcons have allowed 154, 151, and 212 on the ground in 3 of their last 4 road games. Just putting that out there as most Lynch owners are not even thinking about it this week. Seattle at home the last 4 games have given up 113-AZ, 197-NYG, 270-KC, and even 131-CAR…yeah Turner following his 3 TD performance should be solid again this week.
Michael Turner – Just to give all of us night sweats and upset tummies thru Sunday I thought I would pull his big game box scores and then see what he does the next week…(WHY MOP WHY???) In 2008 he had a 3 TD performance against KC and then put up zero TDs the next week against Carolina. Later that same season he posted 4 TDs against Carolina and then posted zero TDs the following week. (MAKE HIM STOP PLEASE!!!) Then in 2009 he had a 3 TD performance that he followed up with 30/TD the next week so again low output for most owners. And in 2010 he posted 2 TD against the Bucs at home and then zero TD the next week. Is Turner a top 5 projection this week? Likely and signs point to a good game but there is a 60% chance of cold wet rain and Turner could be a gamble as he is more of a dome and warm weather type playing in San Diego and Atlanta over his career. It is a road game, there is a chance he does just OK. I own him too and probably have to play him so I am right there with you.
Marshawn Lynch – Could he really produce more than Turner this week at home? The Falcons need to play lights out to keep pace and stay ahead of NO plus lock up home field for the playoffs which would be a major advantage for them. But I think Lynch has a good chance for 75 yards and a TD this week.
Final Score: Atlanta 20…Seattle 17
New York Jets (9-4) at Pittsburgh (10-3) (-6) (36) 20% chance of rain and snow
LT/Greene – Bottom line is neither has scored many TDs rushing the ball this year and neither has scored since LT did it twice in week 6. The Steelers are #1 in rush defense in every major category so you cannot play either of these guys this week, simple cannot do it.
Rashard Mendenhall – He is only avg 10 ppg over the last 5 weeks. You want to say play him with confidence but that simply has not been the case as of late. He is pretty iffy RB1 right now. The Jets suddenly are in the tank in terms of wins and losses but they can still put together a decent defense. Held Miami to 30 yards passing last week…those are like David Woodley era numbers. He should find the end zone if Pittsburgh is to win this week but I wouldn’t expect huge numbers.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 16…NY Jets 9
Denver (3-10) at Oakland (6-7) (-6.5) (43.5) 50 degrees and a 70% chance of rain
This is the RB thread but I tell you now that if it rains as much as it says it will I would bench most WRs in this game because both teams can line up and run the ball if need be.
Knowshon Moreno – One of the hottest RBs in FF right now ranking #4 overall in the last 5 weeks. 22.4 per game and there is simply no way you cannot start him again this week. Footing could be slippery but I can envision that working for the RBs in this game which both have some speed and nifty moves. Moreno doesn’t have the track record of some other backs but he is red hot right now.
Darren McFadden – Speaking of red hot, McFadden is #1 with 25 points per game the last 3 weeks although the 41 against the Jags does skew the number a bit. He made a career out of the last game these two faced off. For those that drafted him in the 8th or higher back in August you really got your money’s worth out of this guy. I see a lot of rushing yards on both sides of the ball this week.
Final Score: Oakland 24…Denver 21
Green Bay (8-5) at New England (11-2)
Here is what I hate about this game. Owners that play New England are going to get a Defense that has no Aaron Rodgers and probably a nice mix of rain and snow to couple with a team that can’t run the ball worth a spit when Rodgers is not out there to keep the defenses on their heels. Some owners are going to get flushed form the playoffs this week because New England will rack up sacks, turnovers, and likely a defensive score or two again.
Green Bay – Bench them ALL!
New England – Woody in the flex, yes…BJGE if you have no other options. He really is a just an avg RB but he gets those short plunges when one of the WRs cannot quite finish getting into the end zone.
Final Score: New England 35…Green Bay 8
Chicago (9-4) at Minnesota (5-8) (NL) 17 degrees and a 60% chance of snow and ice.
I don’t know why Chicago is crying about having to play this game at the Univ of Minnesota. The Vikings can’t throw the ball right now and Chicago is usually pretty strong againt the run. Oh yeah and Adrian Peterson is likely a game time decision and might even be a scratch at this point in the season…no reason to risk injury. I think the Bears will bounce back from an awful putrid downright abysmal performance to the Pats and take one step closer to punching their ticket and being a 1st round casualty in the playoffs. It looks like Chicago and Seattle/St Louis will host a playoff game against either Philly/NY or NO…good luck.
Matt Forte – Only 23rd in points the last 3 weeks. Not huge upside but I think Chicago will play it close to the vest and look at what NY did a week ago and try to get Forte going. They need to run the ball this time of year. Not a huge game but Forte should find his way into the end zone.
Vikings – Watch the IR on Peterson but it doesn’t look good and I don’t like much of what is behind him against the Bears.
Final Score: Chicago 17…Minnesota 12
Good luck guys and gals. I hope you all take the next step towards your FF Bowls this week. Again, feel free to post up options but you need to show your work. List why you are leaning one way or another and then the SP can be a lot more open to feedback on your situation. I have already seen a lot of people twisting about different scenarios so rest assured you are not alone.
Let's ROLL!!!
Kansas City (8-5) at St Louis (6-7) Pk’em (43)
It really is hard to speculate because we don’t know if Cassel will play or not…folks let me tell you that come hell or high water Cassel will play this weekend even if he hands off 55 times because without him the Chiefs looked like Pop Warner scrubs. The Rams really need this game if they are going to close the deal. Seattle looks lost and while the Rams are not there yet they have the better player ultimately in Sam Bradford.
Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Assuming Cassel can go you gotta roll Charles out there inside the dome. Fast track and he has the jets to take it all the way. Rams are 5th in the NFL in defensive rushing TDs allowed so it’s not a terrific match up by any stretch but I’ll take the talent over the stats this week.
Steven Jackson – Jackson has had a pretty mediocre year. The last 2 weeks he has come up with 18 and 16 in PPR formats. KC is not amazing in most statistical defensive categories so there isn’t an overwhelming reason to not start SJax. He just hasn’t had a lot of big upside games this season.
Final Score: Kansas City 20…St Louis 17
Houston (5-8) at Tennessee (5-8) (-1) (47)
The Texans are now 1-6 their last 7 games. Gary Kubiak unfortunately will have to be let go after the season. 5 years and no playoff trips but the team is sure fun to watch. The MNF game was a heartbreaker and somewhere down the road the fans deserve a better outcome. Low and behold the one tem they did manage to beat along the way is the Tennessee Titans who they thumped 20-0 the week after Vince Young and Jeff Fisher had their meltdown.
Arian Foster – He’s the #1 back in fantasy football so I cannot imagine in a game that should see plenty of scoring why you would even think of leaving him off your starting roster. 15+ in PPR
Chris Johnson – Denver somehow is 6th in rushing yards allowed and 32nd in pass defense but Tennessee is not a great throwing team. I imagine Collins will find some holes and be able to give Johnson a few open running lanes. He started coming on last week and maybe the Titans can set some screens up here as well. Johnson is still a top7 back and no way you think about benching him but it could be a little tough for him to find running lanes early. 15-20+ in PPR this week.
Final Score: Houston 30…Tennessee 24
Jacksonville (8-5) at Indianapolis (7-6) (-5) (48)
One of the major games on the board this week in terms of playoff implications. I am certainly shocked that Jax is sitting in 1st place in week 15. Jaguars fans do too judging by empty seats I saw this past weekend on television and that was with parts of the stadium being tarped over. Indy should have won the 1st meeting but some good bounces went the right way for Jax. Sometimes teams are exposed during this time of year or in these types of games. Problem is the Colts are not healthy and Jax can run the ball. They’ll need to in order to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines.
MJD – He’s the #5 RB in FF over the past 4-5 weeks, #7 overall on the season so even with the fluky Jennings touches he is absolutely an auto start every week.
Rashard Jennings – Interesting stuff the last 3 weeks but he is simply a compliment to MJD, not a major cog in the wheel there. If Jennings didn’t touch the ball MJD would be in the 35 range for touches per game and that’s too many.
Donald Brown/Jav James – Brown has almost no upside. 12, 5, 13, 12, 1, and 9 the last 6 weeks. James has done OK the last couple weeks but the TDs make his numbers feel pretty fluky. Avoid if you can.
Final Score: Indy 28…Jacksonville 21
Arizona (4-9) at Carolina (1-12) (-2.5) (37.5)
Somehow by the grace of whatever, the Arizona Cardinals are still mathematically alive in the playoff race. And while they seem to win a new game every time they change QB for a week, typically the next team they face figures it out pretty quick. Carolina is in a race to get the #1 pick in the draft next season. Cinci is close in record but I think they will win this week in the next game I am going to review. So Carolina can win this week and likely still have the upper hand for worst record in the NFL. Buffalo and Detroit both went to 3-10 last week.
Tim Hightower – Last 6 weeks…13/39, 13/39/TD, 12/62, Nill(5/0), 15/81, 18/148/2TDs…honestly he has a couple mediocre games and then a couple where you could start him in the flex, and then last week he blew the doors off the place. Of course he had another fumble but how come QBs can avg an interception per week and nothing is said about it, RB has 4-5 fumbles in the season and they are looked upon as if they have leprosy. What the stats due show though is he really is the only RB you can look at here. Wells has become worthless and even in dynasty has taken a gigantic hit this season. Hightower will continue to produce and this is year 3 for him. At some point he will leave Arizona and go to another team IMO, and will do very well. I like him as an acquisition that won’t cost an arm and a leg in dynasty.
JStew(Hi SLBD) – Last 3 weeks…12/98/21/92/TD, 18/133…He is avg 12 ppg over that span and clearly he is who the panthers want to feed. Assuming he is healthy I would look to play him as a solid RB2 this week if you are in a pinch or rolling between him and another iffy RB2/3. I’m sure many have option to go with JStew if you made it this far so please post your options in the feedback section. I like him and Arizona can look OK one week and putrid the next. It’s an away game, the bookies are favoring the 1 and 12 Panthers so something is up.
Goodson – 21-22 points the last 2 weeks total. He is not the focus of the offense and I probably would lean away from him at this point although he looked very good about a month ago.
Final Score: Carolina 17…Arizona 13
Cleveland (5-8) at Cincinnati (2-11) (-2) (40)
The Browns could have really done themselves some good by winning last week and making a push to be .500 in the 2nd and 3rd week of December. That probably would have saved Mangini’s job. I will also say that so many head coaching vacancies are going to spring up...Cinci, TN, Hou, Oak, Den, SF, AZ, Car, Det, MN, Dal, Was, Mia…all those teams could possibly make a coaching change or in the case of Washington, Shanny might just walk away from it. I’ll get to the Skins in a little while and I’m not saying all those teams definitely make a change but most of them are unstable right now and I can give you a variety of reasons why for each. Back on topic…there is no topic here. A couple of lousy teams but there is FF gold at the RB spots here this weekend.
Peyton Hillis – A bad fumble here and for dynasty owners that have backed the truck up for this guy don’t forget they drafted a 2nd round RB this season in Hardesty who will be in the mix more next year. Hillis will likely see a split in touches so don’t get used to the 2010 season being the norm for him. I would go so far as to say it likely is his career year. Call me a hater I care not. He has a great season and for the last many weeks I not said an ill word but be honest and search your true feelings this off season. I warn you now. This week start him with confidence.
Cedric Benson – Very mediocre year but if he is in rotation at your RB2/3 spot you might want to roll the dice this week. Why??? Cleveland has allowed 160 yards on the ground for the past 5 weeks. Benson will likely hit the top20 if not top10 this week. 15-20 points well within reach for him. Yes I have him in about half green.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Cleveland 20
Buffalo (3-10) at Miami (7-6) (-5.5) (41)
Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller – Miami has been brutal against the run the past 3 weeks. Only allowing an avg of 50 yards on the ground. I know there are many Fred Jackson owners but I cannot in good faith make him an auto start or strong play this week. Most of you toggle him and someone else so again if you have better options I would look there. I love Freddie’s determination and drive but Miami is solid in rush defense under Nolan. Also Lee Evans is out and the defense can focus on Stevie Jackson, with little to stretch the defense I can’t see Jackson carving up the Miami rush defense. Miami has a real chance to get to 9-6 before facing New England. Sporano’s head is on the chop block and I think the team overall likes playing for him, look for them to respond this week.
Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – You are a gambling fool. Which one scores and which one has the big day? Ricky has had some big days against Buffalo so maybe the FF Gods are on his side but again there is never anything you can really hang your hat on here.
Final Score: Miami 17…Buffalo 14
Philly (9-4) at NY Giants (9-4) (-2.5) (46)
One of the many playoff games this weekend and that is essentially what you have with 3 weeks to go and the division on the line. This is going to be a heavyweight fight with both teams trying to exchange blows. Look for the Giants to establish the run. Nicks is still not 100% form what I could see and Steve Smith is on IR, Manningham is not responding either. Philly will counter with Michael Vick. I wonder what Dallas, New York, and Washington fans feel when they hear Vick say he wants to stay in Philly. Andy Reid has maximized what Vick can do as an NFL QB so I don’t blame him for wanting to stay with good coaching. If Vick stay you have to look at Philly as a title contender for the next 4-5 years as long as he is under center.
LeSean McCoy – Keep riding the gravy train. I know the Giants are a bit tougher than most of the defenses he faces but they will have their hands full trying to contain Michael Vick. I am open to suggestions but I can’t see sitting a top5 RB unless you have superior match ups with proven RBs.
Ahmad Bradshaw – I tried to tell you all last week not to bench this guy. He has a forearm injury but it’s not broken to my knowledge. He really makes the offense even without the starting WRs much more diverse. He can catch the ball even though he is typically not the focus. I would pay attention to the IR this week but you probably need him in your line up. This guy gets no respect but he is top10 on the season.
Brandon Jacobs – He really has come alive at the right time. Huge run last week that really took the wind out of Minnesota. I doubt you can rely on that each week and I still feel Bradshaw gets the larger part of the load week in and week out. Not sure you can count on Jacobs unless he is the only RB going in this game. He probably is the RB3 or RB4 on your roster going into week 10+ so you might have other options to discuss.
Final Score: Philly 24…NY Giants 21
Washington (5-8) at Dallas (4-9) (-6) (46)
The Skins for most of the season were win a game, lose a game, or lose a game, win a game, but they were 5-5 and then lost a close game, got blown out against the Giants and then lost a game they should have dominates last week against TB. So they really are not as horrid as their record however they also are not very good right now either. It’s hard to see where Shanny has put his stamp on the team and I believe there is a 50/50 chance he might walk away from this mess after year 1. I can’t see where things are going to get leaps and bounds better next year and he has to face Dallas, NY, and Philly twice a year, all of them have superior QBs IMO. This is a nightmare for him right now and he also has taken a lot of heat for the Haynesworth situation which is handicapping them going out and rebuilding the team. A lot of money flushed down the drain there. Meanwhile Jason Garrett is a Roy Williams fumble and perhaps another FG short of being 5-0 as head coach. He still needs to finish strong but clearly he is going to be in line to takeover or get a few interviews at several other clubs should he want to do that. So many good coaches and asst coaches plus guys walking the sidelines with rings around their fingers, that it’s going to be a wild off season for head coaching vacancies.
Ryan Torain – He was lighting it up last week. I don’t think we see a repeat this week but he probably can still be good for a solid 60-75 and a 50/50 shot at a TD this week in Big D.
Choice/Felix – Let me break this down as Dallas has had better stats in the rush dept the last 3-4 weeks but if you look closer the numbers are different. 134-DET…Kitna had 40, Jones 50…144-NO…Austin had 60 of it…217-Indy…Choice 100/TD, Jones 22/83…110-
Philly, FJ 40/TD, Kitna 27, Austin 26…point is the pie gets broken up amongst many. You can’t think more than a flex for any of these guys and they likely have not been carrying you the whole way anyways. The match up looks a little juicy on paper but think it through.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Washington 17
Detroit (3-10) at Tampa Bay (8-5) (-5.5) (43)
I went thru the Blount hype last week and I think we know who was right on that prediction so no reason to rub it in(didn’t you just do that MOP?). Seriously if you own Blount and you are still alive you probably like the match up this week and I think you will be happy come Sunday Night. Detroit is 22nd in yards allowed, 24th in yards per carry, and 29th in rushing TDs allowed.
Morris/Best – The rush defense for Tampa Bay is terrible. 27th in yds and 30th in yds per attempt, and McCoy their rookie DT who has been starting all year is out for this game and perhaps a little while longer. I hate to shoot for the moon but Best could get loose in this game. I kept thinking as I was doing the game recap for the Bucs last week that a guy with some real speed could have taken a couple of those runs to the house. I’m sure Detroit will be thinking the same thing so my wildcard pick this week will be Best although he is really only for owners that have their backs against the walls. Both of these RBs are limited in practice as I am writing this but I still see Best being the better option if he is active for Sunday. Can Detroit exploit a poor rush defense? Let’s discuss not cuss.
Blount – I think you know I am optimistic for him this week. He is not a 15-20 point guarantee but he does have enough in his favor to expect something in the 70-100 yard range and perhaps a 60% chance or higher of a TD. Some might be even more optimistic than I am.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19…Detroit 16
New Orleans (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4) (-2) (43.5)
I’m surprised Baltimore is favored. The weather is not going to be a huge factor. Yes, it will be cold but right now a majority of the games in the NFL are not going to be like they were last week. I am seeing low 30s and a light wind. New Orleans can operate in those conditions and I expect them to look like the Super Bowl Champs this weekend. Baltimore has just been OK lately. And while the NO rush defense is so so, their pass defense is pretty solid so Flacco owners beware.
Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Chris Ivory/MOP/DD – The reality here is that Ivory has a hamstring/muscle pull whatever and likely is not going to play. Thomas has been in the doghouse for a while but they need him and he is pretty healthy so look for him to carry the ball a good amount, maybe 15+ carries and a few receptions as he can do both. Reggie Bush??? He is close to 100% and I expect him to be a decent flex option this week. Look for New Orleans to take to the air and Bush to get more receptions than hand offs.
Ray Rice – You Ray Rice haters can go to (insert). Seriously this guy has 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 6 games and 20+ points in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s top10 in avg over the last 6 weeks, not sure what you are expecting but he surely is capable of going out and producing 15-20 this week because NO is good against the pass and his dump offs will be part of the game plan as Mason, Boldin, and the rest will be covered. You gotta play Rice IMO.
Final Score: New Orleans 30…Baltimore 20
Atlanta (11-2) at Seattle (6-7) (+6) (45)
The Falcons have allowed 154, 151, and 212 on the ground in 3 of their last 4 road games. Just putting that out there as most Lynch owners are not even thinking about it this week. Seattle at home the last 4 games have given up 113-AZ, 197-NYG, 270-KC, and even 131-CAR…yeah Turner following his 3 TD performance should be solid again this week.
Michael Turner – Just to give all of us night sweats and upset tummies thru Sunday I thought I would pull his big game box scores and then see what he does the next week…(WHY MOP WHY???) In 2008 he had a 3 TD performance against KC and then put up zero TDs the next week against Carolina. Later that same season he posted 4 TDs against Carolina and then posted zero TDs the following week. (MAKE HIM STOP PLEASE!!!) Then in 2009 he had a 3 TD performance that he followed up with 30/TD the next week so again low output for most owners. And in 2010 he posted 2 TD against the Bucs at home and then zero TD the next week. Is Turner a top 5 projection this week? Likely and signs point to a good game but there is a 60% chance of cold wet rain and Turner could be a gamble as he is more of a dome and warm weather type playing in San Diego and Atlanta over his career. It is a road game, there is a chance he does just OK. I own him too and probably have to play him so I am right there with you.
Marshawn Lynch – Could he really produce more than Turner this week at home? The Falcons need to play lights out to keep pace and stay ahead of NO plus lock up home field for the playoffs which would be a major advantage for them. But I think Lynch has a good chance for 75 yards and a TD this week.
Final Score: Atlanta 20…Seattle 17
New York Jets (9-4) at Pittsburgh (10-3) (-6) (36) 20% chance of rain and snow
LT/Greene – Bottom line is neither has scored many TDs rushing the ball this year and neither has scored since LT did it twice in week 6. The Steelers are #1 in rush defense in every major category so you cannot play either of these guys this week, simple cannot do it.
Rashard Mendenhall – He is only avg 10 ppg over the last 5 weeks. You want to say play him with confidence but that simply has not been the case as of late. He is pretty iffy RB1 right now. The Jets suddenly are in the tank in terms of wins and losses but they can still put together a decent defense. Held Miami to 30 yards passing last week…those are like David Woodley era numbers. He should find the end zone if Pittsburgh is to win this week but I wouldn’t expect huge numbers.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 16…NY Jets 9
Denver (3-10) at Oakland (6-7) (-6.5) (43.5) 50 degrees and a 70% chance of rain
This is the RB thread but I tell you now that if it rains as much as it says it will I would bench most WRs in this game because both teams can line up and run the ball if need be.
Knowshon Moreno – One of the hottest RBs in FF right now ranking #4 overall in the last 5 weeks. 22.4 per game and there is simply no way you cannot start him again this week. Footing could be slippery but I can envision that working for the RBs in this game which both have some speed and nifty moves. Moreno doesn’t have the track record of some other backs but he is red hot right now.
Darren McFadden – Speaking of red hot, McFadden is #1 with 25 points per game the last 3 weeks although the 41 against the Jags does skew the number a bit. He made a career out of the last game these two faced off. For those that drafted him in the 8th or higher back in August you really got your money’s worth out of this guy. I see a lot of rushing yards on both sides of the ball this week.
Final Score: Oakland 24…Denver 21
Green Bay (8-5) at New England (11-2)
Here is what I hate about this game. Owners that play New England are going to get a Defense that has no Aaron Rodgers and probably a nice mix of rain and snow to couple with a team that can’t run the ball worth a spit when Rodgers is not out there to keep the defenses on their heels. Some owners are going to get flushed form the playoffs this week because New England will rack up sacks, turnovers, and likely a defensive score or two again.
Green Bay – Bench them ALL!
New England – Woody in the flex, yes…BJGE if you have no other options. He really is a just an avg RB but he gets those short plunges when one of the WRs cannot quite finish getting into the end zone.
Final Score: New England 35…Green Bay 8
Chicago (9-4) at Minnesota (5-8) (NL) 17 degrees and a 60% chance of snow and ice.
I don’t know why Chicago is crying about having to play this game at the Univ of Minnesota. The Vikings can’t throw the ball right now and Chicago is usually pretty strong againt the run. Oh yeah and Adrian Peterson is likely a game time decision and might even be a scratch at this point in the season…no reason to risk injury. I think the Bears will bounce back from an awful putrid downright abysmal performance to the Pats and take one step closer to punching their ticket and being a 1st round casualty in the playoffs. It looks like Chicago and Seattle/St Louis will host a playoff game against either Philly/NY or NO…good luck.
Matt Forte – Only 23rd in points the last 3 weeks. Not huge upside but I think Chicago will play it close to the vest and look at what NY did a week ago and try to get Forte going. They need to run the ball this time of year. Not a huge game but Forte should find his way into the end zone.
Vikings – Watch the IR on Peterson but it doesn’t look good and I don’t like much of what is behind him against the Bears.
Final Score: Chicago 17…Minnesota 12
Good luck guys and gals. I hope you all take the next step towards your FF Bowls this week. Again, feel free to post up options but you need to show your work. List why you are leaning one way or another and then the SP can be a lot more open to feedback on your situation. I have already seen a lot of people twisting about different scenarios so rest assured you are not alone.
Ronnie Brown is avg 6.9 the last 5 weeks. He is a FF Black Hole right now. 3 TDs on the season, less than 15 touches per game.You really want to go with Jack Eight offsuit to the flop? It's not a good bet IMO. His 2nd best game of the year was @Buff week 1 and that was 16 points. He's cleared double digits twice all season. Did I say Jack Eight offsuit? This is more like 10-6 offsuit preflop. Sure Buffalo has a poor rush defense, but Miami is ill equipped right now to exploit it IMO.
