Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's jump right to it.
Denver at Tennessee (-6.5) (41.5)
On the surface I like Denver and the points this week. I always like a team that is a significant underdog on the road but has a QB that can air it out and cover the points. Actually, Denver has a chance to win this game. While this is the RB thread I would like to point out that Tennessee had the #1 pass defense going into last week after games with Oak and Pitt. Eli tore them apart for almost 400 yds and Orton chucked it around for over 400 yds last week, you can be sure Denver will be throwing the ball a lot this week. The Broncos have not allowed career days for MJD, the Seattle RBs, and also Joseph Addai was not exactly lighting it up last week either. Now some of that is due to a pretty horrific offensive lines in terms of run blocking but the Broncos are being attacked from the air. Unfortunately that is not the strength of Tennessee at the moment when it looked promising in week 1 to regressing to the point Chris Johnson had to take 32+ carries last week in order for them to win. It was a big win on the road for the Titans and I expect a letdown this week.
Correll Buckhalter/Laurence Maroney- Owners that went with Buckhalter last week got a point or two more in PPR leagues but neither was real memorable against the suddenly stout rush defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans are giving up 4.4 ypc and over 115 yds per game rushing on defense. McFadden, Mendenhall, and Bradshaw all had some moments but can you really rely on either one of them this week. Bye weeks are now in play so at least a few owners might feel like they need to turn in this direction but the odds of it being a winner are not high.
Chris Johnson – Johnson is on pace for 400 carries this year so the Titans obviously are not going to hold back in using him or even getting him a few more breathers. Denver's rush defense is not horrible but given the number of carries Johnson is likely to get and the fact he can break one to the house form anywhere on the field makes him a top5 threat every single week. I worry about his long term health, but this is the short term right now.
Final Score: Tennessee 21…Denver 20
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1.5) (34.5)
I have Pittsburgh #1 on my power rankings and here is why. If they can have this type of success without one of the very best QBs in the NFL leading them up and down the field…then what are they going to do when they get him back in the lineup? I don't remember too many folks predicting a 3-1 or 4-0 start for them. That said they are going to have their hands full with Baltimore and folks are going ot put way too much stock in the Cleveland game last week where Baltimore was exhausted after games against the Jets, then Cinci, they did get up early on Cleveland 14-3 and then forgot to finish them off. Finally they woke up in the 2nd half and beat the Browns but do not put too much stock in the Cleveland game.
Ray Rice – Doubtful and likely out this week
Willis McGahee – The Steelers are just about tops in the NFL in rush defense. McGahee will see plenty of action but I can't see him tearing the Steelers up on the ground. You saw what they did to Chris Johnson. The only hope for the Ravens running the football is if Flacco can pass with success so that Pittsburgh's defense drops back more but that probably is a long shot even then.
Rashard Mendenhall – One of his best games I have ever watched last week. He was breaking tackles and having his way over the Bucs all day. I know owners are licking their chops and you can't help but notice the 4.7 ypc that the Ravens gave up last week and also Hillis laying a buck 140 and a touchdown on the ground plus 7 catches…things happen sometimes but if you think Baltimore is not going to sell out like they did in week 1 against the Jets when they made Greene a back up and no longer a starter you are nuts. Mendenhall will have an acceptable day given the circumstances but I see Baltimore shutting him down and the Steelers offense all day this week. Batch was a nice fill in but he mostly was chucking the football and getting lucky this past week. Lucky bounce to Wallace, and another that would not happen except the Bucs lost Tanard Jackson for the season. Those expecting Batch to repeat anything he did last weekend have got another thing coming. I'm sure most owners don't have a lot of options and would not bench Mendy anyways but he will finish outside the top10-12 this week.
Final Score: Baltimore 16…Pittsburgh 13
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3) (37.5)…line opened at +5.5
Sometimes I like to mention where the line opens because an awful lot of money was bet on Cleveland early in the week. This I find funny because once again the general public is putting way too much stock in the fact they beat the spread last week. Cleveland is still a bad franchise and still searching for their 1st win of the season. Cinci is 2-1 ATS so far and I think they make it 3-1 after this game. Palmer is still throwing the ball like Trent Edwards but they are managing to move it enough to win these games. The Browns have given up 7 TDs via the air so I would gamble on TO this week if you need him. Cinci is giving up…good lord, 4.5 ypc and teams are not trying hard enough. Why did DeAngelo only get 10 carries last week when he was avg over 6yds a clip? Two things I'm sure of here. Hillis will get a boatload of touches and owners will chase points again.
Cedric Benson – Lovely game last week and 2 TDs to show for it. I like his chances this week again. Cleveland is right about the league avg at 3.8 ypc but Cinci should be able to hammer the ball and Benson is always a threat to carry it 20-25 times a game. I liked him before the season; I liked him the 1st few weeks, not jumping ship on the guy now. Top5 last week, always hard to duplicate it back to back weeks but the matchup is good. Cinci rushed for over 350 yds combined in 2 games against Cleveland last year.
Peyton Hillis – Had a breakout type performance last week against the Ravens who I mentioned previously about the mindset of their team. Owners are going to get feisty with me and I understand why. Hillis is going to be my pick of the week for chasing points. Owners are going to run to get him in their lineup and I think there will be at least one thread on Sunday with an owner saying something like "What happened to Hillis?"…because they are going to look in the box score expecting 100 yds and a TD and it won't be there. Coaching decisions or whatever the Bengals have managed to keep all starting RBs they have face to under 100 yds and only Stewart last week scored a TD but he also had something like 9 carries for 13 yds. I get it though with the bye weeks now here that some owners are not going to have a choice. I feel Hillis will safely land outside the top10-12 this week.
Final Score: Cincinnati 20…Cleveland 13
Detroit at Green Bay (-14.5) (45.5)
You just wonder if the Lions are the unluckiest team in the NFL sometimes. Early reports are no Matt Stafford again this week and Jahvid Best is also questionable and might not play this week. The Lions aren't going anywhere so they might as well keep these guys healthy for the long term. I guess I'm saying I am glad they are not rushing these guys back and risk further injury. Green Bay is coming off the big MNF win…oops they lost actually. I watched the game and am not sure how that happened as sharp as Aaron Rodgers appeared to be. Jets and San Diego both took a loss on MNF and came back the next week to win handily. San Fran did not keep that trend going but it might have been coaching error the whole way around there. Packers should crush Detroit.
Jahvid Best – Keep an eye on the IR but if Best is out you can forget about the backups there as Smith is not 100% back yet and Maurice Morris is a waste of space.
John Kuhn – He takes the field like he is the starter but honestly he has very little upside. He could score a short TD if GB gets close to the end zone and opts for to run it in.
Brandon Jackson – Most of the Packers fans on this site were telling everyone how Jackson would replace Grant no problem…well there is a big problem there. A few GB fans were warning folks but on the whole the Packer Backers showed one of the main reasons you can't trust fans of the teams you want player info on. Much of the time it is told with rose colored glasses on. The Packers drafted this guy in the 2nd and he has never been able to rightfully earn the starting RB spot on a very talented offense. I saw many owners blow their entire blind bid funds on this one guy out of desperation because of the Grant injury. All that said I have a feeling he will see a lot of action this week mainly because Green Bay should be ahead.
Final Score: Green Bay 31…Detroit 13
Carolina at New Orleans (-13.5) (44.5)
The Panthers defense honestly is not that bad. They rank about 15th overall and are only allowing 3.1 ypc on the ground so as I said last week they have done enough on defense the past 2 weeks to win a football game. They even have 5 interceptions in 3 games. The problem for Carolina rests squarely on the QB position and then some dumb play calling and management by the coaching staff. The Saints have been just OK on offense but at some point they are going to explode and the Panthers are going to realize they are not a good team and are playing for a top pick in the lottery next season. Will that be this week? It's a little early but Vegas seems to think this is a total blowout.
DeAngelo Williams – 10 carries for 64 yds last week so stop feeding him the ball. I could tell you about how giving New Orleans is but I said that about Cinci and Tampa Bay and that didn't mean anything. In domes the last couple years DeAngelo has some impressive numbers but I don't trust the coaching staff. His last 4 games on the road in a dome he has avg 150/TD every time…maybe he busts one this week in the 1st 6-8 carries Fox gives him and then can continue on for a big day.
Jonathan Stewart – He scored a TD last week, big deal. 8 carries for 13 yards is not going to get it done. I keep him on the bench still.
Pierre Thomas (Sunday Update-OUT)– He's lucky to be walking after the tackle and replay I saw last week. Lucky him. He still has never carried the ball 200 times in a season so the year is young. Carolina is going to be busy covering everyone so the running lanes should be there. No reason to avoid him as long as he is healthy.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Carolina 14
San Fran at Atlanta (-7) (42)
To say San Fran is a disappointment would be an understatement. The Niners problems are much deeper than their offense. They haven't exactly been all that and a bag of chips on defense this season either. They only have 2 turnovers on defense. Atlanta comes in off a monumental and emotional win in New Orleans. My gut tells me they have a letdown this week. They might still win the game but I don't think they can cover this spread.
Frank Gore – He's been one of the best and even with a subpar rushing performance last week he was very active in the receiving department. Atlanta was allowing 5.9 ypc going into New Orleans; they still are above 5 yds a clip. I wouldn't hesitate to start him this week.
Michael Turner – Guess he was OK as 30+ carries against New Orleans after he couldn't finish the week before. Hopefully this is the beginning of a strong run for owners who have been waiting patiently. The Niners are about avg on rush defense but the Falcons are better than avg at running the football. Advantage-Falcons.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…San Fran 21
Seattle at St Louis (Pk'em (38)
Seattle is 2-1 but I have them in my power rankings at about #24. Seriously I have them ranked well behind teams like Dallas, Denver, Oakland, even the team they beat last week. I just got done reading a book called "How to Make Enemies of the Seattle Fan Base"…sorry guys. That said I think they can go in and beat St Louis despite their poor road record the past few years. Seattle is good at one thing right now and that is shutting down the run. At some point they will be exposed but not against a gimpy Steven Jackson and Kenneth Darby. The Rams will have to beat them thru the air. I love what Bradford is doing but he is not a Pro Bowl QB just yet.
Justin Forsett – He did have 20 touches last week so maybe Carroll is settling in on a RB for now. 17 carries for 63 yds is about 3.5 ypc but he also knocked in 3/31 receiving which in PPR helped pad an otherwise ho hum day. The Rams have made Hightower and McFadden look like frontline starters in the Pro Bowl. Who knows why Shanny abandoned the run last week with Portis. 1st time all season I have really discussed Forsett but with bye weeks upon us owners are going to need to give this a try. I would say Forsett has a decent chance at top20 this week.
Steven Jackson/Kenneth Darby – Just look at the IR this week and see if Jackson is even practicing partially. If he is out I still do not love Darby as a play. If Jackson can share the load I like both even less.
Final Score: Seattle 20…St Louis 17
NY Jets at Buffalo (+5.5) (37)
The Jets after getting beat by only 1 point in week 1 have ripped off 2 nice victories over divisional rivals New England and Miami. Take it another step the combined record of their opponents is 6-3, the Jets are a very good team and they are going to get stronger when Santonio Holmes joins the roster. I'm sure he is aching to get on the field and be a part of this. Revis should be back soon as well.
LaDainian Tomlinson – He was great last week and might have put a little distance between him and Greene for the starting role. The Bills have a soft run defense and I think the Jets will be more than happy to pound the football and get to 3-1. I believe if they win this week they will be something like 9-2 over their last 11 games. I would look for a good dose of LT this weekend.
Shonn Greene – I like him too this week. I could easily see both of these backs have enough points to be start able against the Bills this week. If LT can rack up 80 yds and a score I don't see why Greene wouldn't have the chance for close to the same especially since the Jets should be ahead in this game.
Marshawn Lynch – He's had 30 rushes over the past 2 games. Word is they want to trade Lynch and are accepting offers for him. Despite the offensive explosion last week from the Bills I don't think any of their backs are good options this week.
Final Score: NY Jets 27…Buffalo 10
Indy at Jacksonville (+7.5) (46.5)
I like the Colts just about every week. I like them with Garcon, I like them without Garcon. I like them with Addai, I like them without Addai. I like them with Bob Sanders, I like them without Bob Sanders. Until the line is a steady 12-14 each week which is where it should be I would continue to bet on the Colts. The offensive line does concern me a little but they aren't playing Pittsburgh this week. Memo to Bill Polian…instead of trumpeting an 18 game schedule, go build a line that can open holes and keep Manning a clean pocket.
Joseph Addai – Tough week last week on the ground but his counterpart wasn't any better. Jacksonville has the 29th ranked defense. I'm sure J'Adda has a whole bunch of good games against Jax if I look them up…actually I did and his track record in Jax is not great. Doubtful most owners have other options but feel free to discuss after I wrap this up.
Maurice Jones Drew – Maybe if I write his name out instead of abbreviating it he will produce starting numbers this week. Anything to change this up. Indy was allowing Foster to rip them apart week 1 but since then they have gotten a handle on their run defense and are playing well. I do think Indy wins this game rather easily but maybe Drew can continue to get carries even when they are behind. The passing game has gone completely in the tank.
Final Score: Indy 31…Jacksonville 17
Houston at Oakland (+3) (43.5)
Houston came off 2 very emotional wins and then dropped a game to a desperate team with talent in Dallas. I wouldn't read too much into it. I think they should try and get Foster on track early in this game, they are going to need with him with Andre Johnson gimpy at the moment. Oakland is playing tough and a missed FG last week would have given them a 2-1 record going into this.
Arian Foster – Oakland is giving up 4.6 ypc and after a couple weeks of average play I expect Foster to have a big game this week. 125 total yards and at least a score this week.
Darren McFadden – Houston's big weakness has been their pass defense and Dallas picked them apart last week. Because McFadden is active in the passing game I would not think twice about riding this horse one more week.
Final Score: Houston 24…Oakland 21
Arizona at San Diego (-8) (46)
Bolts are again off to a slow start in the wins column but their offense has looked good. The Cards are 2-1 but if you think they are close to the team San Diego is right now you are wrong. The Chargers have plenty of cream puffs on the schedule but they have to stop shooting themselves in the foot. 3 kick/punt returns for touchdowns against them is not helping.
Beanie Wells – Should be good to go but San Diego is not easy to run on. Despite the Charles run in the 1st game they shut down MJD and the Seattle RBs most of the time. Wells will share carries with Tim Hightower so I remain cautiously optimistic for him.
Tim Hightower - Splitting carries with Wells makes him hard to start. I do think San Diego will win in a rout so Hightower should see more receptions as the Cards play from behind and are also missing Steve Breaston.
Ryan Mathews - Sunday update-Is going to play, still think he needs another week befroe he is explosive.
Mike Tolbert - 90 total yds on 20 touches last week. I would imagine he starts again this week and I believe San Diego will win this game rather easily so I would expect to see a lot of him in the 2nd half as San Diego is trying to run the clock out.
Final Score: San Diego 35…Arizona 17
Washington at Philadelphia (-6) (42.5)
I think the media is more excite about this and maybe the fans in Philadelphia. On paper this should really be a game where Philly crushes Washington who just lost by 2 touchdowns to St Louis last week. Sure I'm gonna watch the game but I don't feel like it will be overly competitive.
Clinton Portis/Ryan Torrain – Washington has quickly become another team to add to a growing list where you don't want to start any of their backs. They are useless most of the time. Portis has 7 carries for roughly 40-45 yards last week and then didn't touch the ball in the 2nd half. What is Shanny doing? I would avoid it unless Portis is going to start and get the lion's share, but how can you trust anything he or Shanny will say.
LeSean McCoy – Pretty quiet day last week. I would expect him to rebound this week and be more involved in the offense but right now this is the Michael Vick show and Philly looks to want to put the ball in Vick's hands as often as possible. McCoy remains a must start most weeks in my opinion. He has upside.
Final Score: Philadelphia 24…Washington 17
Chicago at New York Giants (-4) (44)
Does this line look a little strange to you? Why would a 3-0 team facing a 1-2 team that is in disarray be 4 point underdogs? I thought Chicago was favored by 4 in this one. Vegas is begging you to take Chicago. Baltimore won their Monday Night game, turned around and was defeated by Cinci the next week. New Orleans won a close one and then dropped their game to Atlanta. Chicago wins a tight game on MNF and now they travel to New York…guess Vegas is assuming a loss here. I would probably avoid this game.
Matt Forte – When he doesn't catch a lot of balls he doesn't have as much impact fantasy wise. That's not a profound statement but his lack of touches or carries is really rough when he doesn't become a focal point of the passing game. Green Bay took him out of the plan mostly last week. New York's defense is not terrific right now but I have a feeling they are going to bring a lot of pressure and disrupt Cutler. Forte will be leaned a little more this week. Chicago does not have a set of WRs that strikes fear into defenses, that's for sure.
Ahmad Bradshaw – Chicago is excellent at shutting down the run. They are amongst the league leaders in rush defense. I would not be expecting top10 numbers from Bradshaw this week. Some owners will have no choice and must start him but I would not be expecting a whole lot.
Final Score: New York 24…Chicago 20
New England at Miami (Pk'em) (45.5)
Miami will continue their decent from the unbeaten ranks of the first couple weeks. I expect them to lose again this week to a much more talented team. Miami needs to establish the run which they really abandoned last week. New England got a little scare from Buffalo but just like Baltimore I doubt they were mentally prepared for the game after playing Cinci and the Jets the previous two weeks. They will have no problem getting up for the Phins on MNF.
Ronnie Brown – As long as he stays healthy you start him. Not a threat for top5 most weeks but he is a threat to accumulate 75 yds and a possible TD almost every week whether he hits that mark or not. Miami is learning that Ricky Williams is getting old and in my opinion they should be trying to run Ronnie 20 times a game. The problem with that is he doesn't hold up so they limit him to 14-16 carries most of the time.
Ricky Williams – Should be on your bench at this point. He has been a total nonfactor in this offense.
Jarvis, Green & Ellis "For the People" – Fred Taylor is gimpy again and looking old. BJGE looks like the back with the most to offer right now. I don't think he is going to produce 100 and a TD each week although with all the talent in this offense in the passing game who is thinking stop the run? If New England gets ahead I would expect a healthy dose of the guy in the 2nd half.
Final Score: New England 31…Miami 14
I have some questions that might lead to some discussion. Feel free to take one of these and run with it or if you want to discuss something else that's fine.
Denver, Carolina, Buffalo, Washington, and New England all seem like unsettled RB1 positions right now, do you agree/disagree?
What backs do you think it is time to trade away?
What backs do you feel it is time to trade for?
Thanks everyone and good luck this week.
Denver at Tennessee (-6.5) (41.5)
On the surface I like Denver and the points this week. I always like a team that is a significant underdog on the road but has a QB that can air it out and cover the points. Actually, Denver has a chance to win this game. While this is the RB thread I would like to point out that Tennessee had the #1 pass defense going into last week after games with Oak and Pitt. Eli tore them apart for almost 400 yds and Orton chucked it around for over 400 yds last week, you can be sure Denver will be throwing the ball a lot this week. The Broncos have not allowed career days for MJD, the Seattle RBs, and also Joseph Addai was not exactly lighting it up last week either. Now some of that is due to a pretty horrific offensive lines in terms of run blocking but the Broncos are being attacked from the air. Unfortunately that is not the strength of Tennessee at the moment when it looked promising in week 1 to regressing to the point Chris Johnson had to take 32+ carries last week in order for them to win. It was a big win on the road for the Titans and I expect a letdown this week.
Correll Buckhalter/Laurence Maroney- Owners that went with Buckhalter last week got a point or two more in PPR leagues but neither was real memorable against the suddenly stout rush defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans are giving up 4.4 ypc and over 115 yds per game rushing on defense. McFadden, Mendenhall, and Bradshaw all had some moments but can you really rely on either one of them this week. Bye weeks are now in play so at least a few owners might feel like they need to turn in this direction but the odds of it being a winner are not high.
Chris Johnson – Johnson is on pace for 400 carries this year so the Titans obviously are not going to hold back in using him or even getting him a few more breathers. Denver's rush defense is not horrible but given the number of carries Johnson is likely to get and the fact he can break one to the house form anywhere on the field makes him a top5 threat every single week. I worry about his long term health, but this is the short term right now.
Final Score: Tennessee 21…Denver 20
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1.5) (34.5)
I have Pittsburgh #1 on my power rankings and here is why. If they can have this type of success without one of the very best QBs in the NFL leading them up and down the field…then what are they going to do when they get him back in the lineup? I don't remember too many folks predicting a 3-1 or 4-0 start for them. That said they are going to have their hands full with Baltimore and folks are going ot put way too much stock in the Cleveland game last week where Baltimore was exhausted after games against the Jets, then Cinci, they did get up early on Cleveland 14-3 and then forgot to finish them off. Finally they woke up in the 2nd half and beat the Browns but do not put too much stock in the Cleveland game.
Ray Rice – Doubtful and likely out this week
Willis McGahee – The Steelers are just about tops in the NFL in rush defense. McGahee will see plenty of action but I can't see him tearing the Steelers up on the ground. You saw what they did to Chris Johnson. The only hope for the Ravens running the football is if Flacco can pass with success so that Pittsburgh's defense drops back more but that probably is a long shot even then.
Rashard Mendenhall – One of his best games I have ever watched last week. He was breaking tackles and having his way over the Bucs all day. I know owners are licking their chops and you can't help but notice the 4.7 ypc that the Ravens gave up last week and also Hillis laying a buck 140 and a touchdown on the ground plus 7 catches…things happen sometimes but if you think Baltimore is not going to sell out like they did in week 1 against the Jets when they made Greene a back up and no longer a starter you are nuts. Mendenhall will have an acceptable day given the circumstances but I see Baltimore shutting him down and the Steelers offense all day this week. Batch was a nice fill in but he mostly was chucking the football and getting lucky this past week. Lucky bounce to Wallace, and another that would not happen except the Bucs lost Tanard Jackson for the season. Those expecting Batch to repeat anything he did last weekend have got another thing coming. I'm sure most owners don't have a lot of options and would not bench Mendy anyways but he will finish outside the top10-12 this week.
Final Score: Baltimore 16…Pittsburgh 13
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3) (37.5)…line opened at +5.5
Sometimes I like to mention where the line opens because an awful lot of money was bet on Cleveland early in the week. This I find funny because once again the general public is putting way too much stock in the fact they beat the spread last week. Cleveland is still a bad franchise and still searching for their 1st win of the season. Cinci is 2-1 ATS so far and I think they make it 3-1 after this game. Palmer is still throwing the ball like Trent Edwards but they are managing to move it enough to win these games. The Browns have given up 7 TDs via the air so I would gamble on TO this week if you need him. Cinci is giving up…good lord, 4.5 ypc and teams are not trying hard enough. Why did DeAngelo only get 10 carries last week when he was avg over 6yds a clip? Two things I'm sure of here. Hillis will get a boatload of touches and owners will chase points again.
Cedric Benson – Lovely game last week and 2 TDs to show for it. I like his chances this week again. Cleveland is right about the league avg at 3.8 ypc but Cinci should be able to hammer the ball and Benson is always a threat to carry it 20-25 times a game. I liked him before the season; I liked him the 1st few weeks, not jumping ship on the guy now. Top5 last week, always hard to duplicate it back to back weeks but the matchup is good. Cinci rushed for over 350 yds combined in 2 games against Cleveland last year.
Peyton Hillis – Had a breakout type performance last week against the Ravens who I mentioned previously about the mindset of their team. Owners are going to get feisty with me and I understand why. Hillis is going to be my pick of the week for chasing points. Owners are going to run to get him in their lineup and I think there will be at least one thread on Sunday with an owner saying something like "What happened to Hillis?"…because they are going to look in the box score expecting 100 yds and a TD and it won't be there. Coaching decisions or whatever the Bengals have managed to keep all starting RBs they have face to under 100 yds and only Stewart last week scored a TD but he also had something like 9 carries for 13 yds. I get it though with the bye weeks now here that some owners are not going to have a choice. I feel Hillis will safely land outside the top10-12 this week.
Final Score: Cincinnati 20…Cleveland 13
Detroit at Green Bay (-14.5) (45.5)
You just wonder if the Lions are the unluckiest team in the NFL sometimes. Early reports are no Matt Stafford again this week and Jahvid Best is also questionable and might not play this week. The Lions aren't going anywhere so they might as well keep these guys healthy for the long term. I guess I'm saying I am glad they are not rushing these guys back and risk further injury. Green Bay is coming off the big MNF win…oops they lost actually. I watched the game and am not sure how that happened as sharp as Aaron Rodgers appeared to be. Jets and San Diego both took a loss on MNF and came back the next week to win handily. San Fran did not keep that trend going but it might have been coaching error the whole way around there. Packers should crush Detroit.
Jahvid Best – Keep an eye on the IR but if Best is out you can forget about the backups there as Smith is not 100% back yet and Maurice Morris is a waste of space.
John Kuhn – He takes the field like he is the starter but honestly he has very little upside. He could score a short TD if GB gets close to the end zone and opts for to run it in.
Brandon Jackson – Most of the Packers fans on this site were telling everyone how Jackson would replace Grant no problem…well there is a big problem there. A few GB fans were warning folks but on the whole the Packer Backers showed one of the main reasons you can't trust fans of the teams you want player info on. Much of the time it is told with rose colored glasses on. The Packers drafted this guy in the 2nd and he has never been able to rightfully earn the starting RB spot on a very talented offense. I saw many owners blow their entire blind bid funds on this one guy out of desperation because of the Grant injury. All that said I have a feeling he will see a lot of action this week mainly because Green Bay should be ahead.
Final Score: Green Bay 31…Detroit 13
Carolina at New Orleans (-13.5) (44.5)
The Panthers defense honestly is not that bad. They rank about 15th overall and are only allowing 3.1 ypc on the ground so as I said last week they have done enough on defense the past 2 weeks to win a football game. They even have 5 interceptions in 3 games. The problem for Carolina rests squarely on the QB position and then some dumb play calling and management by the coaching staff. The Saints have been just OK on offense but at some point they are going to explode and the Panthers are going to realize they are not a good team and are playing for a top pick in the lottery next season. Will that be this week? It's a little early but Vegas seems to think this is a total blowout.
DeAngelo Williams – 10 carries for 64 yds last week so stop feeding him the ball. I could tell you about how giving New Orleans is but I said that about Cinci and Tampa Bay and that didn't mean anything. In domes the last couple years DeAngelo has some impressive numbers but I don't trust the coaching staff. His last 4 games on the road in a dome he has avg 150/TD every time…maybe he busts one this week in the 1st 6-8 carries Fox gives him and then can continue on for a big day.
Jonathan Stewart – He scored a TD last week, big deal. 8 carries for 13 yards is not going to get it done. I keep him on the bench still.
Pierre Thomas (Sunday Update-OUT)– He's lucky to be walking after the tackle and replay I saw last week. Lucky him. He still has never carried the ball 200 times in a season so the year is young. Carolina is going to be busy covering everyone so the running lanes should be there. No reason to avoid him as long as he is healthy.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Carolina 14
San Fran at Atlanta (-7) (42)
To say San Fran is a disappointment would be an understatement. The Niners problems are much deeper than their offense. They haven't exactly been all that and a bag of chips on defense this season either. They only have 2 turnovers on defense. Atlanta comes in off a monumental and emotional win in New Orleans. My gut tells me they have a letdown this week. They might still win the game but I don't think they can cover this spread.
Frank Gore – He's been one of the best and even with a subpar rushing performance last week he was very active in the receiving department. Atlanta was allowing 5.9 ypc going into New Orleans; they still are above 5 yds a clip. I wouldn't hesitate to start him this week.
Michael Turner – Guess he was OK as 30+ carries against New Orleans after he couldn't finish the week before. Hopefully this is the beginning of a strong run for owners who have been waiting patiently. The Niners are about avg on rush defense but the Falcons are better than avg at running the football. Advantage-Falcons.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…San Fran 21
Seattle at St Louis (Pk'em (38)
Seattle is 2-1 but I have them in my power rankings at about #24. Seriously I have them ranked well behind teams like Dallas, Denver, Oakland, even the team they beat last week. I just got done reading a book called "How to Make Enemies of the Seattle Fan Base"…sorry guys. That said I think they can go in and beat St Louis despite their poor road record the past few years. Seattle is good at one thing right now and that is shutting down the run. At some point they will be exposed but not against a gimpy Steven Jackson and Kenneth Darby. The Rams will have to beat them thru the air. I love what Bradford is doing but he is not a Pro Bowl QB just yet.
Justin Forsett – He did have 20 touches last week so maybe Carroll is settling in on a RB for now. 17 carries for 63 yds is about 3.5 ypc but he also knocked in 3/31 receiving which in PPR helped pad an otherwise ho hum day. The Rams have made Hightower and McFadden look like frontline starters in the Pro Bowl. Who knows why Shanny abandoned the run last week with Portis. 1st time all season I have really discussed Forsett but with bye weeks upon us owners are going to need to give this a try. I would say Forsett has a decent chance at top20 this week.
Steven Jackson/Kenneth Darby – Just look at the IR this week and see if Jackson is even practicing partially. If he is out I still do not love Darby as a play. If Jackson can share the load I like both even less.
Final Score: Seattle 20…St Louis 17
NY Jets at Buffalo (+5.5) (37)
The Jets after getting beat by only 1 point in week 1 have ripped off 2 nice victories over divisional rivals New England and Miami. Take it another step the combined record of their opponents is 6-3, the Jets are a very good team and they are going to get stronger when Santonio Holmes joins the roster. I'm sure he is aching to get on the field and be a part of this. Revis should be back soon as well.
LaDainian Tomlinson – He was great last week and might have put a little distance between him and Greene for the starting role. The Bills have a soft run defense and I think the Jets will be more than happy to pound the football and get to 3-1. I believe if they win this week they will be something like 9-2 over their last 11 games. I would look for a good dose of LT this weekend.
Shonn Greene – I like him too this week. I could easily see both of these backs have enough points to be start able against the Bills this week. If LT can rack up 80 yds and a score I don't see why Greene wouldn't have the chance for close to the same especially since the Jets should be ahead in this game.
Marshawn Lynch – He's had 30 rushes over the past 2 games. Word is they want to trade Lynch and are accepting offers for him. Despite the offensive explosion last week from the Bills I don't think any of their backs are good options this week.
Final Score: NY Jets 27…Buffalo 10
Indy at Jacksonville (+7.5) (46.5)
I like the Colts just about every week. I like them with Garcon, I like them without Garcon. I like them with Addai, I like them without Addai. I like them with Bob Sanders, I like them without Bob Sanders. Until the line is a steady 12-14 each week which is where it should be I would continue to bet on the Colts. The offensive line does concern me a little but they aren't playing Pittsburgh this week. Memo to Bill Polian…instead of trumpeting an 18 game schedule, go build a line that can open holes and keep Manning a clean pocket.
Joseph Addai – Tough week last week on the ground but his counterpart wasn't any better. Jacksonville has the 29th ranked defense. I'm sure J'Adda has a whole bunch of good games against Jax if I look them up…actually I did and his track record in Jax is not great. Doubtful most owners have other options but feel free to discuss after I wrap this up.
Maurice Jones Drew – Maybe if I write his name out instead of abbreviating it he will produce starting numbers this week. Anything to change this up. Indy was allowing Foster to rip them apart week 1 but since then they have gotten a handle on their run defense and are playing well. I do think Indy wins this game rather easily but maybe Drew can continue to get carries even when they are behind. The passing game has gone completely in the tank.
Final Score: Indy 31…Jacksonville 17
Houston at Oakland (+3) (43.5)
Houston came off 2 very emotional wins and then dropped a game to a desperate team with talent in Dallas. I wouldn't read too much into it. I think they should try and get Foster on track early in this game, they are going to need with him with Andre Johnson gimpy at the moment. Oakland is playing tough and a missed FG last week would have given them a 2-1 record going into this.
Arian Foster – Oakland is giving up 4.6 ypc and after a couple weeks of average play I expect Foster to have a big game this week. 125 total yards and at least a score this week.
Darren McFadden – Houston's big weakness has been their pass defense and Dallas picked them apart last week. Because McFadden is active in the passing game I would not think twice about riding this horse one more week.
Final Score: Houston 24…Oakland 21
Arizona at San Diego (-8) (46)
Bolts are again off to a slow start in the wins column but their offense has looked good. The Cards are 2-1 but if you think they are close to the team San Diego is right now you are wrong. The Chargers have plenty of cream puffs on the schedule but they have to stop shooting themselves in the foot. 3 kick/punt returns for touchdowns against them is not helping.
Beanie Wells – Should be good to go but San Diego is not easy to run on. Despite the Charles run in the 1st game they shut down MJD and the Seattle RBs most of the time. Wells will share carries with Tim Hightower so I remain cautiously optimistic for him.
Tim Hightower - Splitting carries with Wells makes him hard to start. I do think San Diego will win in a rout so Hightower should see more receptions as the Cards play from behind and are also missing Steve Breaston.
Ryan Mathews - Sunday update-Is going to play, still think he needs another week befroe he is explosive.
Mike Tolbert - 90 total yds on 20 touches last week. I would imagine he starts again this week and I believe San Diego will win this game rather easily so I would expect to see a lot of him in the 2nd half as San Diego is trying to run the clock out.
Final Score: San Diego 35…Arizona 17
Washington at Philadelphia (-6) (42.5)
I think the media is more excite about this and maybe the fans in Philadelphia. On paper this should really be a game where Philly crushes Washington who just lost by 2 touchdowns to St Louis last week. Sure I'm gonna watch the game but I don't feel like it will be overly competitive.
Clinton Portis/Ryan Torrain – Washington has quickly become another team to add to a growing list where you don't want to start any of their backs. They are useless most of the time. Portis has 7 carries for roughly 40-45 yards last week and then didn't touch the ball in the 2nd half. What is Shanny doing? I would avoid it unless Portis is going to start and get the lion's share, but how can you trust anything he or Shanny will say.
LeSean McCoy – Pretty quiet day last week. I would expect him to rebound this week and be more involved in the offense but right now this is the Michael Vick show and Philly looks to want to put the ball in Vick's hands as often as possible. McCoy remains a must start most weeks in my opinion. He has upside.
Final Score: Philadelphia 24…Washington 17
Chicago at New York Giants (-4) (44)
Does this line look a little strange to you? Why would a 3-0 team facing a 1-2 team that is in disarray be 4 point underdogs? I thought Chicago was favored by 4 in this one. Vegas is begging you to take Chicago. Baltimore won their Monday Night game, turned around and was defeated by Cinci the next week. New Orleans won a close one and then dropped their game to Atlanta. Chicago wins a tight game on MNF and now they travel to New York…guess Vegas is assuming a loss here. I would probably avoid this game.
Matt Forte – When he doesn't catch a lot of balls he doesn't have as much impact fantasy wise. That's not a profound statement but his lack of touches or carries is really rough when he doesn't become a focal point of the passing game. Green Bay took him out of the plan mostly last week. New York's defense is not terrific right now but I have a feeling they are going to bring a lot of pressure and disrupt Cutler. Forte will be leaned a little more this week. Chicago does not have a set of WRs that strikes fear into defenses, that's for sure.
Ahmad Bradshaw – Chicago is excellent at shutting down the run. They are amongst the league leaders in rush defense. I would not be expecting top10 numbers from Bradshaw this week. Some owners will have no choice and must start him but I would not be expecting a whole lot.
Final Score: New York 24…Chicago 20
New England at Miami (Pk'em) (45.5)
Miami will continue their decent from the unbeaten ranks of the first couple weeks. I expect them to lose again this week to a much more talented team. Miami needs to establish the run which they really abandoned last week. New England got a little scare from Buffalo but just like Baltimore I doubt they were mentally prepared for the game after playing Cinci and the Jets the previous two weeks. They will have no problem getting up for the Phins on MNF.
Ronnie Brown – As long as he stays healthy you start him. Not a threat for top5 most weeks but he is a threat to accumulate 75 yds and a possible TD almost every week whether he hits that mark or not. Miami is learning that Ricky Williams is getting old and in my opinion they should be trying to run Ronnie 20 times a game. The problem with that is he doesn't hold up so they limit him to 14-16 carries most of the time.
Ricky Williams – Should be on your bench at this point. He has been a total nonfactor in this offense.
Jarvis, Green & Ellis "For the People" – Fred Taylor is gimpy again and looking old. BJGE looks like the back with the most to offer right now. I don't think he is going to produce 100 and a TD each week although with all the talent in this offense in the passing game who is thinking stop the run? If New England gets ahead I would expect a healthy dose of the guy in the 2nd half.
Final Score: New England 31…Miami 14
I have some questions that might lead to some discussion. Feel free to take one of these and run with it or if you want to discuss something else that's fine.
Denver, Carolina, Buffalo, Washington, and New England all seem like unsettled RB1 positions right now, do you agree/disagree?
What backs do you think it is time to trade away?
What backs do you feel it is time to trade for?
Thanks everyone and good luck this week.
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I do like it when you post about the spreads, you have had some good predictions over the years.
and it's up to the SP to come in and fill in the blanks, ask questions, and give different angles. I like to leave my original thoughts until Friday when the injury report is released again with the practice schedule form W-Th-F and then come in and update. I have posted back at you the past couple weeks but I haven't seen you repost.
