RBs to Exploit/Avoid week 5 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Excellent work as usual. I think Bradshaw is almost at must start status. Obviously the injury concerns do requiring monitoring but I don't think I will bench him for the remainder of the season if he is starting. Putting him in Over Benson in my one league and Addai in my other.

Lot of Bradshaw is a stud talk lately. Solid sure, but I'm not quite on the train just yet although I own him in multiple dyansty leagues and drafted him coming out of college so I've been waiting for this.

I still think he will be up and down.

Ahhh. So that's why you're grading him low this week.....I get it now.

Over compensating?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Kansas City at Indy (-8) (45)

One interesting way to look at this game would be the KC ground attack which has produced 135, 140, and 207 as a team the 1st 3 weeks. And they have held the opposition to 109, 73, and 43 yds on the ground the past 3 weeks. If they could continue that trend I guess they can keep the game close but playing Indy on that fast track in their house, I really don't see KC keeping this game very close. Such a cliché but turnovers are going to play a huge factor in this game. If Indy is in a giving mood then KC has a chance but anything short of that or Matt Cassel throwing a couple picks at some point and it spells disaster.

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – JC is more explosive, TJ is steady eddie, because of Indy likely putting up a lot of points I like JC better because they need him to try and stay in the game. Jones seems better suited for when KC is going to be winning and running the clock down.

I don't understand the Thomas Jones problem. It seems like the Colts D is susceptible to the run, and that KC's best shot in the game is to try and keep the Colts O off the field - Thomas Jones is perfectly suited to capitalize on that. I'd think he'll see heavy utilization at least in the 1st half - maybe longer if KC stays in it. I'm not saying he should be a green, but I don't think he should be a red either. I don't own TJ in any league - this one just seemed off to me.

I thnk the precision of Manning this week who will have Garcon back to go with Collie and Wayne will make it lopsided early and then Jones becomes a non factor.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-6.5) (38) opened at -9

LaGarrette Blount – Do you know how old this guy is? He turns 25 in December and he's a rookie. How many times was this guy held back in grade school? Wow! This is as good as he probably is going to get but I don't see Tampa Bay overusing the guy. I can see 12-15 carries this week but I also expect Cinci to win this game so is Blount going to be running the ball in the 2nd half? Doubtful.

Cadillac – has done nothing this season and seems to be on the very downside of his short career.

Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Tampa Bay 13

I agree that Cadillac is done and Blount is a knucklehead, but the organization is saying that Huggins will get more time, including 3rd down duties. He was the toast of the pre-season. Any reason why he can't wrest the feature back position away with a big day on Sunday?

Kareem who? We heard big things preseason and Blount walked in off the streets and Huggins hasn't touched the ball yet has he?

 

[Jimbo Slice]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

 

[rainram]

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)

Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.

Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14

Yes, New Orleans averages just over 70 yards rushing per game, however...1.) Arizona gives up the 3rd most in the league on the ground, averaging over 150 yards rushing allowed per game!!

2.) For PPR leagues, the RBs do catch passes.

3.) N.O. is bound to be protecting a nice lead in for the final 15 minutes of the game....

One of those guys has gotta be green right??

I would imagine they'd rest Pierre. It's almost a lock that they win this game without him...no sense in risking a worse injury. With that assumption, and with my 3 points above, what's the outlook for Ivory/Betts? The two of 'em combined for well over 100 yards against a Panther defense last week.

Is one more of a goal line back?

Is one a better receiver?

Is one the better blocker? It is my understanding Betts is a better blocker.

Is one more explosive/faster/dynamic?

**and if you sense desperation...yes, I'm dying for RB help this week. But seriously, there is at least 80-100 total yards from scrimmage and a shot at a TD with one of these guys right??

 

[Breesisdaman]

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)

Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.

Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14

Yes, New Orleans averages just over 70 yards rushing per game, however...1.) Arizona gives up the 3rd most in the league on the ground, averaging over 150 yards rushing allowed per game!!

2.) For PPR leagues, the RBs do catch passes.

3.) N.O. is bound to be protecting a nice lead in for the final 15 minutes of the game....

One of those guys has gotta be green right??

I would imagine they'd rest Pierre. It's almost a lock that they win this game without him...no sense in risking a worse injury. With that assumption, and with my 3 points above, what's the outlook for Ivory/Betts? The two of 'em combined for well over 100 yards against a Panther defense last week.

Is one more of a goal line back?

Is one a better receiver?

Is one the better blocker? It is my understanding Betts is a better blocker.

Is one more explosive/faster/dynamic?

**and if you sense desperation...yes, I'm dying for RB help this week. But seriously, there is at least 80-100 total yards from scrimmage and a shot at a TD with one of these guys right??

As a homer I would advise Ivory until PT pratices without any problems even if he see's carries Im sure they wont have him shoulder the load. It is a long season and Arizona can be run on without PT. Chris Ivory better have had a talking to by the coaching staff about ball security and his fumbles, other than that he is your most exsplosive option and would likely be the call in goal line situations.

To MOP:

I have noticed a fall off in New Orleans offensive line as well, its the same guys pretty much as last year but I dont see the same desire at the moment. I cant believe they let that Panther defender get to brees untouched! They blew open some big holes early on in the year. The push against the Williams wall at the goal line in the Vikings game being the most notable. I think losing the Reggie Bush aspect allows defenses to stack the line more in short situations. I hope the Saints get it together this week because even though they are one Hartley field goal away from being 4-0 they sure havent played worth a crap. Maybe its injuries, Superbowl hangover or teams are just giving New Orleans their best shot. The results arent great for Fantasy football however.

 

[kyoun1e]

San Diego at Oakland (+6) (45)

Let's me get this straight…San Diego is putting up 450 yds of offense a week and allow only 237 on defense. They are outgaining their opposition by over 200 yds a week and yet they are 2-2…sounds like a few of my fantasy leagues and I'm sure many of yours. I just can't see San Diego dropping to 2-3 while being #1 in total offense and perhaps #1 in total defense; just doesn't make any sense. They have not lost a game in Oakland since 2003, they should change the name from the Coliseum to the Gods of Lightning Bolts.

Ryan Mathews – "he's playing he's playing he's playing"…either San Diego is content to give the ball a lot to Mike Tolbert or Mathews was a little more hurt than some thought. What was weird is he entered the game when San Diego had a good lead and played a lot of the 2nd half. Not sure what to read into that but again I will defer to the Shark pool and some of your thoughts…Bicycle Seat, Groovus, Chargers' legal advisor and staff member MT, what say you?

McFadden/Bush – Hmmm…would seem that McFadden was at his peak a couple weeks ago. What happens next? Cable might get fired pretty soon if Oakland descends to 1-5? Who takes over and what will they run on offense? I thought McFadden was a sell high a couple weeks ago and now Bush is back and he scored a touchdown last week although I think McFadden is clearly more talented overall. We can discuss all this below.

Edit to add: Nice job by C-Bound to point out McFadden is likely out this week. Check the IR but alos pay attention Sunday.

Final Score: San Diego 27…Oakland 14

I looked a bit deeper into SD's stats since I'm trying to determine Bush vs. Torain this week. Overall SD offense/defense look impressive but you have to look at each of the games:Week 1: @KC. On the road. In the slop. KC ran all over them. J. Charles for 11-92-1. T. Jones 11-39. Not very impressive.

Week 2: SD at home and run into an absolutely pathetic JAX offense. Everyone on earth knows at this point that on the road, JAX is arguably the worst team in the league. Furthermore, Del Rio continue to prove that he has no idea how to call a game once they get behind. MJD goes for 12-31. R. Jennings 9-38. As a former MJD owner, this wasn't unpredictable. A layup for SD at home. They aren't even tested on the ground.

Week 3: @Seattle. Once again, on the road, SD looks mortal. They sleepwalk through the first 60% of the game before trying to roar back. J. Forsett squeezes out 17-63, but let's face it...Seattle's offense STINKS. Again, SD's defense isn't really tested.

Week 4: At home against an imploding AZ team. D. Anderson totally inept and then replaced by M. Hall. No way this offense is going to function. Hightower goes for 7-24 and B. Wells 5-19. Pathetic. Again, SD not tested.

Now on Oak at home vs SD. The last two years:

2009: SD 24, Oak 20 -- Don't know if you remember this game, but OAK had it AND they ran all over them. Bush going 12-55-1.

2008: SD 28, Oak 18 -- Bush goes for 14-48 with 7 recepts for 80 yards. Not bad.

These games are fairly competitive in my mind. You could argue that SD was a better team the last couple years vs. the current version.

My takeaways:

1. SD defensive stats deceiving and more of a function of lousy opposition. They aren't THAT good.

2. SD world beaters at home, can be beat on the road...and have been.

3. Oak along with Bush has a decent track record against SD at home.

My Prediction:

SD 24, Oak 23

Bush: 22-92-1; 5-32 = 23 fantasy points in PPR.

 

[kyoun1e]

Green Bay at Washington (+2.5) (44)

Packers looked strong early last week and then went in the tank only to hold for dear life against the Lions. On the surface I was

thinking this would be a GB blowout and the line is pretty small but upon further review I think differently. Washington is coming off back to back rushing weeks of 116 and 169 yds on the ground. This after posting an abysmal 18yds against the Houston Texans. The Packers are awesome against the pass only allowing 185 yds and generate a lot of sacks. The Skins will likely try to shorten the game and pound terrain into the ground this week.

Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn – Both remain terrible options for owners. If they ever breakout of this we can discuss but Washington is at least decent at stopping the run. I'll listen to someone reason why they think one of them is a good option but if you start either of these guys it's a leap of faith.

Clinton Portis – Out 4-6 weeks

Ryan Torrain – I think he is a start this week. Most that grabbed him a week early will prosper again this week. The Packers are giving up 5.2 ypc and Mike Shanahan is going to run early and often and see what they have to stop him with. Torrain is not what I call a special player but he has a legitimate chance at top10 this week.

Final Score: Green Bay 24…Washington 23

Agree with Torain here. Especially with Washington at home. Here's a look at what RBs have done against GB this year:* M. Lynch: 17-64 (Not bad; surprising)

* F. Jackson: 9-39

* L. McCoy: 7-35 (this game was all about M. Vick; Vick 11-103 on the ground here)

* M. Forte: 11-29 (Can Chicago run against ANYBODY?)

* J. Best: 12-50

Take out Vick's rushing numbers and GB is still allowing around 4 YPC.

Think Wash is a sneaky pick to cover at home and Torain is going to get his chance.

KY

 

[nysportsfan]

The more I think about it, the more I think Bush is an out-of-the-box, top start this week. I think he would normally sit for 3rd downs, but with both RBs - Bennet and McFaden - hurt, I think he's a great start. Or am I totally off?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The more I think about it, the more I think Bush is an out-of-the-box, top start this week. I think he would normally sit for 3rd downs, but with both RBs - Bennet and McFaden - hurt, I think he's a great start. Or am I totally off?

SD has been very good vs. the Run. But they havent exactly faced a who's who of RBs so far (MJD, Jcharles, Forsett, Hightower/Beanie)

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Ryan Mathews – "he's playing he's playing he's playing"…either San Diego is content to give the ball a lot to Mike Tolbert or Mathews was a little more hurt than some thought. What was weird is he entered the game when San Diego had a good lead and played a lot of the 2nd half. Not sure what to read into that but again I will defer to the Shark pool and some of your thoughts…Bicycle Seat, Groovus, Chargers' legal advisor and staff member MT, what say you?

RBBC for now with a slight slant toward Mathews. TD heavy leagues could be a nightmare for awhile if you own both guys. I could see both guys having RB2 type numbers this week

So what is Darren Sproles' role if any? Will he see any 3rd down duty?

he brings the guacamole. oh you mean on the football field? Next to non existent.

 

[topher203]

MOP, I'd be curious to see your full power rankings as of now. GB and NO are some of the hardest teams for me to figure out this season. I thought they'd be amazing but theyve both been kind of eh this season.

 

[bergs101]

Thoughts on Tolbert?

You would assume Mathews will see the workload this week right? Or is Mathews falling behind Tolbert on the depth chart?I think Mathews was still nursing his injuries adn will get more playing time each week as he heals up.

Tolbert has been a top three back thus far according to FO's advanced metrics. I think this might be a full blown RBBC for the time being.http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

I've watched Tolbert and have not been impressed. I'd stick to watching the games rather than using any advanced metrics...just my two cents.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Excellent work as usual. I think Bradshaw is almost at must start status. Obviously the injury concerns do requiring monitoring but I don't think I will bench him for the remainder of the season if he is starting. Putting him in Over Benson in my one league and Addai in my other.

Lot of Bradshaw is a stud talk lately. Solid sure, but I'm not quite on the train just yet although I own him in multiple dyansty leagues and drafted him coming out of college so I've been waiting for this. I still think he will be up and down.

Only on the nights that Eli mails it in... which are too frequent given his talent.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Thoughts on Tolbert?

You would assume Mathews will see the workload this week right? Or is Mathews falling behind Tolbert on the depth chart?I think Mathews was still nursing his injuries adn will get more playing time each week as he heals up.

Tolbert has been a top three back thus far according to FO's advanced metrics. I think this might be a full blown RBBC for the time being.http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

I've watched Tolbert and have not been impressed. I'd stick to watching the games rather than using any advanced metrics...just my two cents.

Then you are either stupid or lying (about having watched all the games, and no, sportscenter highlights don't count). If you watched Tollbert at all this year you can't possibly reach this conclusion. He looks PHENOMENAL. Huge, strong, running with aggression and dragging tacklers, while still being quick. Honestly he looks more like Michael Turner right now than Michaael Turner does... If mathews was a 6th round back he wouldn't even be mentioned to start (assuming he also had 6th round limitations a la starks, I think the chargers are a little shocked they are at how well he has done and what a gem they found in him. Because he looked great in preseason, but so did huggins. BUt when given the ball he has absolutely blown up tacklers and gained yards.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

sd jax highlights (a few nice ones in here) including his TD dancing ability

at 29 seconds :X

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

sd jax highlights (a few nice ones in here) including his TD dancing ability

at 29 seconds

lil game here. how many yards after contact does tolbert get in this 6 minute clip? How many times does he meet a LB/safety and they bounce off him like kids trying to tackle their older brother. I think ge's the real deal. Luckily so it seems does norv turner.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)

Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.

Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14

Yes, New Orleans averages just over 70 yards rushing per game, however...1.) Arizona gives up the 3rd most in the league on the ground, averaging over 150 yards rushing allowed per game!!

2.) For PPR leagues, the RBs do catch passes.

3.) N.O. is bound to be protecting a nice lead in for the final 15 minutes of the game....

One of those guys has gotta be green right??

I would imagine they'd rest Pierre. It's almost a lock that they win this game without him...no sense in risking a worse injury. With that assumption, and with my 3 points above, what's the outlook for Ivory/Betts? The two of 'em combined for well over 100 yards against a Panther defense last week.

Is one more of a goal line back?

Is one a better receiver?

Is one the better blocker? It is my understanding Betts is a better blocker.

Is one more explosive/faster/dynamic?

**and if you sense desperation...yes, I'm dying for RB help this week. But seriously, there is at least 80-100 total yards from scrimmage and a shot at a TD with one of these guys right??

Like I always post when a guy can't suit up one week, how much better are they the following Sunday? 100%. I would put Thomas out at least another 2 weeks now. Neither RB is that great of an option Betts/Ivory. They are alright but nothing special right now.

 

[rainram]

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)

Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.

Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14

Yes, New Orleans averages just over 70 yards rushing per game, however...1.) Arizona gives up the 3rd most in the league on the ground, averaging over 150 yards rushing allowed per game!!

2.) For PPR leagues, the RBs do catch passes.

3.) N.O. is bound to be protecting a nice lead in for the final 15 minutes of the game....

One of those guys has gotta be green right??

I would imagine they'd rest Pierre. It's almost a lock that they win this game without him...no sense in risking a worse injury. With that assumption, and with my 3 points above, what's the outlook for Ivory/Betts? The two of 'em combined for well over 100 yards against a Panther defense last week.

Is one more of a goal line back?

Is one a better receiver?

Is one the better blocker? It is my understanding Betts is a better blocker.

Is one more explosive/faster/dynamic?

**and if you sense desperation...yes, I'm dying for RB help this week. But seriously, there is at least 80-100 total yards from scrimmage and a shot at a TD with one of these guys right??

Like I always post when a guy can't suit up one week, how much better are they the following Sunday? 100%. I would put Thomas out at least another 2 weeks now. Neither RB is that great of an option Betts/Ivory. They are alright but nothing special right now.

May I ask what type of projections you have for Betts/Ivory?

For reference...FBG's weekly projections right now has them splitting almost evenly a total of 18 carries for 84 yards, and Betts catching a few balls for minimal yardage. I gotta say...that baffles me.

The number of carries per game so far this season against Arizona (not counting QB carries/rushes)

Week 1, St. Lous: 24 carries

Week 2, Atlanta: 45 carries - Blow-out

Week 3, Oakland: 31 carries

Week 4, San Diego: 36 carries - Blow-out

The Saints have ran the ball the following amount of times so far:

Week 1: 21 carries

Week 2: 23 carries

Week 3: 16 carries

Week 4: 25 carries

I think most of us anticipate N.O. protecting a nice 4th quarter lead. If that's the case, I expect them to AT LEAST run the ball 30 times. If ARI surprises and keeps it close, I'd still see rushing attempts somewhere in the 22-25 range....at the 4.6 average FBGs is giving them, that would put them between 100 and 140 yards on the ground.

Bottom Line is I see somewhat better rushing totals than the experts have right now. Granted, they are the experts, not me. I am just curious what kind of totals you are looking at?

 

[drater]

Anybody else thinking Beanies fortunes this week rest on the opening coin toss? Crazy, I know, but bear with me:

1. AZ wins the toss, elects to receive, they feed Beanie a steady diet of carries, he gashes a very suspect Saints run D for lots of yards and an opening drive TD. At that point, the Saints are playing catchup and Beanie continues to get the ball in an effort to control the possession clock.

2. AZ wins the toss, relies on Max Hall, goes three an out, punts, NO scores a TD and AZ is immediately in catch up mode, ala THT time.

3. AZ loses the toss, NO scores, same situation as 2.

When deciding on RB's of comparable situation/ability, I try to project how the overall game flow will go. If a running team gets behind big early, they usually get away from what they do best and fail worse. If they get up early, the keep plugging away and you end up with some big stats from your RBs.

I can't wrap my head around this one, it could go either way and Beanies fate for the day will probably be decided in the first 5 minutes of the game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP, I'd be curious to see your full power rankings as of now. GB and NO are some of the hardest teams for me to figure out this season. I thought they'd be amazing but theyve both been kind of eh this season.

1. Pittsburgh 3-1...Basing it on the idea they get Big Ben back and all systems are go. I still question the OL2. NY Jets 3-1...Went thru their division and lost to Balt week 1 by 1 point. 3. Baltimore 3-1...Their are question but things will get ironed out4. Green Bay 3-1...I still like them a lot and Clay Mathews is a beast5. Indianapolis 2-2...Still has the offense but they need to remain healthy6. San Diego 2-2...They can destroy teams, #1 on offense and #1 on defense right now. 7. Houston 3-1...They seem to be coming together and now have Brian Cushing back8. New Orleans 3-1...They haven't looked good yet. 9. New England 3-1...That defense isn't as good as some folks think. They will be great in 2011/201210. Atlanta 3-1...Still young and have some questions on defense.11. Kansas City 3-0...I don't even want them this high. They will be destroyed in Indy this weekend.12. Dallas 1-2...I'm not as down on them as some. I still feel they are loaded with talent. 13. Minnesota 1-2...It's the offense not keeping up it's end of the bargain. Defense is still very strong. 14. NY Giants 2-2...They have no problem moving the ball up and down the field.15. Chicago 3-1...That loss last week really exposed them but I maintain the defense is strong enough to get them into the playoffs17. Tennessee 2-2...One week good, one week bad16. Denver 2-2...They need Moreno back18. Cincinnati 2-2...The front 7 has been a major let down.20. Philadelphia 2-2...With Vick they leap ahead several spots. 19. Washington 2-2...Pretty middle of the road but they are showing improvement21. Miami 2-2...they really are not very good but they aren't as bad as they appeared on MNF either.22. Tampa Bay 2-1...Still a work in progress23. Cleveland 1-3...Better than the record might indicate.24. Oakland 1-3...I like them better than other teams with better records 25. St Louis 2-2...If they can beat Detroit on the road this week they take a big step forward.26. Seattle 2-2...Shaky and downright awful when they leave home. 27. San Fran 0-4...The Niners are going to make the playoffs, oh yes!28. Jacksonville 2-2...One of the worst 2-2 teams your gonna find. The win last week means nothing. 29. Arizona 2-2...Thrown in the towel and Max Hall starts now30. Detroit 0-4...They are better than their record31. Carolina 0-4...They will get a win this week...maybe.32. Buffalo 0-4...Worst team in the league

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)

Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.

Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14

Yes, New Orleans averages just over 70 yards rushing per game, however...1.) Arizona gives up the 3rd most in the league on the ground, averaging over 150 yards rushing allowed per game!!

2.) For PPR leagues, the RBs do catch passes.

3.) N.O. is bound to be protecting a nice lead in for the final 15 minutes of the game....

One of those guys has gotta be green right??

I would imagine they'd rest Pierre. It's almost a lock that they win this game without him...no sense in risking a worse injury. With that assumption, and with my 3 points above, what's the outlook for Ivory/Betts? The two of 'em combined for well over 100 yards against a Panther defense last week.

Is one more of a goal line back?

Is one a better receiver?

Is one the better blocker? It is my understanding Betts is a better blocker.

Is one more explosive/faster/dynamic?

**and if you sense desperation...yes, I'm dying for RB help this week. But seriously, there is at least 80-100 total yards from scrimmage and a shot at a TD with one of these guys right??

Like I always post when a guy can't suit up one week, how much better are they the following Sunday? 100%. I would put Thomas out at least another 2 weeks now. Neither RB is that great of an option Betts/Ivory. They are alright but nothing special right now.

May I ask what type of projections you have for Betts/Ivory?

For reference...FBG's weekly projections right now has them splitting almost evenly a total of 18 carries for 84 yards, and Betts catching a few balls for minimal yardage. I gotta say...that baffles me.

The number of carries per game so far this season against Arizona (not counting QB carries/rushes)

Week 1, St. Lous: 24 carries

Week 2, Atlanta: 45 carries - Blow-out

Week 3, Oakland: 31 carries

Week 4, San Diego: 36 carries - Blow-out

The Saints have ran the ball the following amount of times so far:

Week 1: 21 carries

Week 2: 23 carries

Week 3: 16 carries

Week 4: 25 carries

I think most of us anticipate N.O. protecting a nice 4th quarter lead. If that's the case, I expect them to AT LEAST run the ball 30 times. If ARI surprises and keeps it close, I'd still see rushing attempts somewhere in the 22-25 range....at the 4.6 average FBGs is giving them, that would put them between 100 and 140 yards on the ground.

Bottom Line is I see somewhat better rushing totals than the experts have right now. Granted, they are the experts, not me. I am just curious what kind of totals you are looking at?

Betts and Ivory are going to combine for maybe 125 total yards. I think New Orleans will get throw it as much as they need to. Betts seems like the stronger play based on the number of snaps he took last week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

 

[gary mexico]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

Hey Mop, do you think M Bush outscores Spiller this week .5 ppr??

 

[Boulder Toads]

Tough call for me this week in my Dynasty league ... start 2RB, no PPR ... really need a win this week to keep up in the standings.

Starting:

MJD @ BUF

Arian Foster vs. NYG

Sitting:

Ray Rice vs. DEN

All three are good options this week ... my main justification benching Rice is the unknown of how many touches he gets coming off the injury. It was easier to bench Rice last week, but there is just enough gray area again to keep him on my bench (in this league) one more week. I also don't have a good read on the DEN defense.

Can't go against the hot hand with Foster ... dude is just ripping it up and I feel like the Texans will lean on the running game again with Jacoby out and Andre still banged up a bit. Foster continues to impress with his touches through the air, and I think he'll find some space again with Schaub feeding him 2-3 swing passes out of the backfield.

MJD has the best matchup and seems to be healthy after the rolled ankle situation last week. Of course, my confidence in the JAC offense on the road is low enough that I could see this as one of those sweet matchups that just never materializes. Something like an ugly 13-10 win.

Only change I would entertain would swap MJD for Rice, but I don't know enough about the health of Rice, or the DEN defense vs. the BAL run game. Would be interested if anyone else has to decide between Rice / MJD. Hope these thoughts help someone else.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

Hey Mop, do you think M Bush outscores Spiller this week .5 ppr??

Interesting question. The easy answer is yes but San Diego is playing very well on defense and we really don't know what to expect from Spiller now that Lynch is gone. Spiller has to have his coming out party some week soon, right? With only .5 PPR and the fact Jackson was named the starter I would put my money on Bush however I don't see him having anything close to top5 or even top10 numbers this week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tough call for me this week in my Dynasty league ... start 2RB, no PPR ... really need a win this week to keep up in the standings.Starting:MJD @ BUFArian Foster vs. NYGSitting:Ray Rice vs. DENAll three are good options this week ... my main justification benching Rice is the unknown of how many touches he gets coming off the injury. It was easier to bench Rice last week, but there is just enough gray area again to keep him on my bench (in this league) one more week. I also don't have a good read on the DEN defense.Can't go against the hot hand with Foster ... dude is just ripping it up and I feel like the Texans will lean on the running game again with Jacoby out and Andre still banged up a bit. Foster continues to impress with his touches through the air, and I think he'll find some space again with Schaub feeding him 2-3 swing passes out of the backfield.MJD has the best matchup and seems to be healthy after the rolled ankle situation last week. Of course, my confidence in the JAC offense on the road is low enough that I could see this as one of those sweet matchups that just never materializes. Something like an ugly 13-10 win.Only change I would entertain would swap MJD for Rice, but I don't know enough about the health of Rice, or the DEN defense vs. the BAL run game. Would be interested if anyone else has to decide between Rice / MJD. Hope these thoughts help someone else.

I think you must go with what you posted. I wouldn't gamble on Rice this week after what MJD did last week plus the Bills are soft right now. Foster should have a big week, he needs to keep Ward in his rear view mirror.

 

[Imagine]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

Hey Mop, do you think M Bush outscores Spiller this week .5 ppr??

Interesting question. The easy answer is yes but San Diego is playing very well on defense and we really don't know what to expect from Spiller now that Lynch is gone. Spiller has to have his coming out party some week soon, right? With only .5 PPR and the fact Jackson was named the starter I would put my money on Bush however I don't see him having anything close to top5 or even top10 numbers this week.

Hey MoP! I thought your comments on Michael Bush were interesting and I wonder if you'd care to elaborate? He’s only been back a week from that broken thumb, but with McFadden out, he’s getting a lot of press and many seem to think that Bush will start off where DMC left off, and really roll this week. I'm like you in that don't see him as top 10 either, but since he doesn't have the RBBC component to worry about his week, how would you compare his potential this week to guys like LT and Bradshaw who are either nicked up or have a fairly strong RBBC partner?

 

[abe froman]

Great write up MOP 100+ total yards and a TD is RB1 numbers. One day you will believe in Hillis!

Thank you and I do believe in Hillis, just not as much as some of you.

I think it's both peyton hillis running pretty good and our O-line playing great. Either way watch the game and make an opinion based on what u see and not so much who u prefer or like. Not many RBs will run on BAL the way we did.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

Hey Mop, do you think M Bush outscores Spiller this week .5 ppr??

Interesting question. The easy answer is yes but San Diego is playing very well on defense and we really don't know what to expect from Spiller now that Lynch is gone. Spiller has to have his coming out party some week soon, right? With only .5 PPR and the fact Jackson was named the starter I would put my money on Bush however I don't see him having anything close to top5 or even top10 numbers this week.

Hey MoP! I thought your comments on Michael Bush were interesting and I wonder if you'd care to elaborate? He's only been back a week from that broken thumb, but with McFadden out, he's getting a lot of press and many seem to think that Bush will start off where DMC left off, and really roll this week. I'm like you in that don't see him as top 10 either, but since he doesn't have the RBBC component to worry about his week, how would you compare his potential this week to guys like LT and Bradshaw who are either nicked up or have a fairly strong RBBC partner?

Jets are going to run it as much as they can but i think it will be a lot of the 3 yard and a cloud of dust variety. Some big pass plays that will not get into the end zone but leave them in striking range, LT trots out and dives into the end zone late for the TD. What's always interesting when you have 2 pretty sound defenses is occasionally you end up seeing the offenses doing well. I would still think that Favre and Sanchez have to work out the kinks with Moss and Holmes respectively.

 

[Herm23]

Who do you prefer out of Michael Bush and Beanie Wells this week? You have been pretty low on both so far this season, so I'm wondering which you consider the lesser of 2 evils? Both have some strong factors going in their favor this week- Bush with a workload that should exceed 20 touches and Beanie with perhaps a new found emphasis being placed on him after his public outburst.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Who do you prefer out of Michael Bush and Beanie Wells this week? You have been pretty low on both so far this season, so I'm wondering which you consider the lesser of 2 evils? Both have some strong factors going in their favor this week- Bush with a workload that should exceed 20 touches and Beanie with perhaps a new found emphasis being placed on him after his public outburst.

 

[kyoun1e]

So with both don brown and mike hart looking like they're going to sit, it obviously bumps up addai. But how much?

He's a threat to rack 80-100 yds and a TD almost any week he starts and is healthy. He has been a perfect RB2 for most owners and probably is stepping in as some folks RB1 now with injuries mounting from other teams.

Hey Mop, do you think M Bush outscores Spiller this week .5 ppr??

Interesting question. The easy answer is yes but San Diego is playing very well on defense and we really don't know what to expect from Spiller now that Lynch is gone. Spiller has to have his coming out party some week soon, right? With only .5 PPR and the fact Jackson was named the starter I would put my money on Bush however I don't see him having anything close to top5 or even top10 numbers this week.

SD is playing very well on D?Reread my post.Stats and opposition are fooling everyone.Take Oakland and the points...and Bush.KY

 

[Kleck]

Green Bay at Washington (+2.5) (44)

Ryan Torrain – I think he is a start this week. Most that grabbed him a week early will prosper again this week. The Packers are giving up 5.2 ypc and Mike Shanahan is going to run early and often and see what they have to stop him with. Torrain is not what I call a special player but he has a legitimate chance at top10 this week.

Final Score: Green Bay 24…Washington 23

Yes, the packers are giving up high YPC, but that is mostly due to Mike Vick week 1. Against RBs, the Packers defense is giving up 3.7 yps.