Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
There are a lot of so so teams out there. The league has really changed. I think you can count the power running teams on one hand these days. What I'm saying is that even when the match ups seem to line up it doesn't mean that things are always going to work out. Teams abandon the run anytime they fall behind even early in games by only 7 or 10 points, not sure why that is. Remember when KC would still hand off to Priest Holmes down 31-17 midway thru the 3rd quarter? No one does that anymore. This off season I think I am only going to form leagues that use 1 RB in the starting lineup, 2 WRs, and a flex RB/WR. It's just too hard in a 12 man league when the bye weeks hit to find 2 quality starting RBs.
You will hear me say it again through the write up this week but some of you were livid with me for not buying into what the players were saying in terms of their injuries. Guys(and gals) you must understand that players and coaches are never gonna tip their hands so most of the time they are going to say they are healthy and they are going to play. Pride plays a factor in all of this as well. You've hear me say this but I'm going to repeat myself…if a player cannot suit up on Sunday then how much better are they going to be the next week? I rarely see a player miss a game completely and then go 100% and blow up the next week…it's happened but not often. SO you saw Mathews miss a game and then proclaim he was healthy and then went out and took less than 50% of the snaps and shared the workload. It might have worked out for owners as he did OK in there but the reality is players who nurse injuries typically need ramp up time. A week of shard duties before they get a huge workload the next week.
And I realize many of you are running out of options. I put together a 12 owner best ball league of mostly shark pool posters this season and I can't get one over on these folks to save my life so I understand those of you in uber competitive leagues. But still in some of your more relaxed leagues there are still guys on the waiver wire that you typically can find a week or two ahead of schedule. For example I picked up Lynch a week or two ahead of when he was traded. I was able to get Ryan Torrain before last week too. I might not start these guys but they make great depth and also help add value to trades for players I really want.
Enough of the soap box for this week.
Chicago at Carolina (+2.5) (35.5)
Everything was going so right for Chicago until last week. It was predictable but still things don't look good for them right now. The lack of any real weapons at WR is going to haunt them as they implement Martz and his system there. What happens if they can't make it happen against Carolina? Has anyone taken a look at how bad Chicago is at running the football? Has anyone taken a look at how bad that OL is at doing anything other than taking Disney Park tickets as turnstile specialists, holy crap are they bad.
Carolina comes back home on a wing and a prayer. They could actually salvage some of the season if they can capture a win before the bye week with SF and St Louis on the other side but with Steve Smith out and Dwayne Jarrett arrested for a DWI for the 2nd time and apparently cut from the team, they have absolutely nothing to throw the ball with. They have the RBs to just line up and ram it down team's throats but they also seem reluctant to stick with what works. Very frustrating for FF owners. I don't know how they can win with a rookie QB and no WRs to throw the ball to in this day and age of the NFL.
Matt Forte – No upside when he doesn't get at least 4-5 receptions because Chicago has shown at this point they have no running game and I mean nothing. The Panthers are not that easy to run against anyways but Forte is avg under 2.5 ypc I believe. With bye weeks owners are left with few options but the ceiling is limited unless he is highly active in the passing game.
DeAngelo Williams – Finally totaled up 100 yds and a score last week. Chicago is not easy at all to run the ball on and Bradshaw last week Imo was a reflection of a team that knew they weren't going to win the game and started to wear down. This week they will not see Eli Manning and in fact the Bears defense can probably force Clausen into a few turnovers so DeAngelo owners could be right where they were a week or two ago.
Jonathan Stewart – Had a fluke reception for a TD last week but otherwise he still is not a great option for most owners. Can't see where the upside would be for him this week. He's avg 3.2 ypc to boot, bench him.
Final Score: Chicago 17…Carolina 13
Atlanta at Cleveland (+3) (40) Opened at +6
A lot of Hillis owners are going to look at the last couple of games he has had and see a 4.6 ypc avg from Atlanta and go WINNER!!! I was wrong last week in my Hillis outlook but I think this week if you look a little deeper you will see what I anticipate. Atlanta is giving up 4.6 ypc but they came down from 6 yds after week 1 where they yielded 143 yds. Then 118 in week 2 but Mendenhall busting off a 50 yarder in overtime and a THT long one in week 2 had a lot to do with this. In weeks 3 and 4 they only gave up 43 yds rushing and another 81 last week. The Falcons if they don't give up the big play do very well. Hillis is powerful and has burst but I wouldn't describe him as a burner and I believe he will have hard time making big yds this week. Grind it out yes but anything more than 60-75 yds and a 40-50% of a TD would be expecting a lot. Perhaps RB2 status but not top10-12.
Michael Turner – has put in a couple solid weeks but if not for his receptions last week in PPR it would have been a real disaster. Still a pretty ho hum effort. I spoke in week 1 about Turner on grass outside and I am not overly optimistic this week however I expect him to see a full workload and also for Atlanta to take to the air against Cleveland. Look for Turner to find points in the 2nd half after Cleveland gets loosened up.
Peyton Hillis – I went over his outlook up top. Marginal RB2 this week but that is probably the slot most have him at anyways.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…Cleveland 16
Green Bay at Washington (+2.5) (44)
Packers looked strong early last week and then went in the tank only to hold for dear life against the Lions. On the surface I was
thinking this would be a GB blowout and the line is pretty small but upon further review I think differently. Washington is coming off back to back rushing weeks of 116 and 169 yds on the ground. This after posting an abysmal 18yds against the Houston Texans. The Packers are awesome against the pass only allowing 185 yds and generate a lot of sacks. The Skins will likely try to shorten the game and pound terrain into the ground this week.
Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn – Both remain terrible options for owners. If they ever breakout of this we can discuss but Washington is at least decent at stopping the run. I'll listen to someone reason why they think one of them is a good option but if you start either of these guys it's a leap of faith.
Clinton Portis – Out 4-6 weeks
Ryan Torrain – I think he is a start this week. Most that grabbed him a week early will prosper again this week. The Packers are giving up 5.2 ypc and Mike Shanahan is going to run early and often and see what they have to stop him with. Torrain is not what I call a special player but he has a legitimate chance at top10 this week.
Final Score: Green Bay 24…Washington 23
St Louis at Detroit (-3) (43)
Been a long time since St Louis has won a road game…actually maybe the 1 game they managed to win last season was on the road, not sure about that. This line looks a little like Chicago last week where you say Detroit is 0-4, no way they beat St Louis at 2-2, however Detroit is playing better than some think. They also got torched by Philly and didn't do too well against the Vikes either. The Rams are a better team right now but the problem is they are very young and learning week by week. I think this will be a game where they go up and take a loss but somehow learn from their mistakes. Bradford is bound to have a few stinkers here and there, perhaps this week he has to take a step back to take a step forward. St Louis is growing and they will hit a point where these are automatic type wins but they aren't there yet, still young.
Steven Jackson – Acted like he might not play and then takes almost every hand off in the game. I have a feeling like always he won't practice much but will play every Sunday. The important info will be about 45 minutes before kickoff. He wasn't spectacular last week but Detroit is indoors and he should be good to go in this one.
Jahvid Best – This just feel like a letdown game for the Rams so my instincts would say that Best has a pretty strong day running the ball for Detroit. In one of my redraft leagues with short rosters I am faced with a decision of having to work the WW for a QB as Vick is down. I grabbed Shaun Hill and I think Detroit will win this game so I would side with Best having a score and making a strong run at 100 total yds. Have not looked at the IR, don't know his health status but I don't know of him being any worse off than he was last week.
Final Score: Detroit 23…St Louis 14
NY Giants at Houston (-3) (44.5) opened at -4.5
On the surface my 1st impression is Houston blows these guys out by the 3rd quarter. The Giants though have been able to move the ball around in a couple of their losses but the defense has been absent much of the time and they have a hard time finishing drives. My biggest wildcard though in this game is the return of Brian Cushing which should help Houston shut down the run.
The Giants passing game has been up and down but they have found room to run as a team and have topped the 100 yard mark every week. Houston however seems to better against the run than the pass so something is going to give this week. It's not like Eli and crew can't move the ball thru the air, they certainly can.
Ahmad Bradshaw – As with many backs right now you will need to check the injury report. I certainly would not run to insert Brandon Jacobs but I see NY probably having a letdown in this game and if and when Houston jumps up on them they will have to move away from the run. I do not see a big day for Bradshaw this week.
Arian Foster – You have to start him every week. I have had a few owners in my league as recently as last week still holding this guy on the bench for other more prominent stars…if that is the case on your team you trade anyone that is in front of him. He is a frontline starter and I wouldn't worry about match up much. Forte was held in check, not a lot of backs have exploded on New York but Foster is a dual threat as he showed in about 2.5 quarters of work last week. Did he remind you of anyone? I had to see a Priest after the game.
Final Score: Houston 30…New York 20
Kansas City at Indy (-8) (45)
The Chiefs are the only unbeaten team and after this week the '72 Miami Dolphins can pop open the Cold Duck a little early this year. Indy seems to shoot themselves in the foot but they are a superior team at least offensively to almost anyone in the league. They were driving down the field all game last week and made 2 turnovers in the 2nd half that really cost them the game.
One interesting way to look at this game would be the KC ground attack which has produced 135, 140, and 207 as a team the 1st 3 weeks. And they have held the opposition to 109, 73, and 43 yds on the ground the past 3 weeks. If they could continue that trend I guess they can keep the game close but playing Indy on that fast track in their house, I really don't see KC keeping this game very close. Such a cliché but turnovers are going to play a huge factor in this game. If Indy is in a giving mood then KC has a chance but anything short of that or Matt Cassel throwing a couple picks at some point and it spells disaster.
Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – JC is more explosive, TJ is steady eddie, because of Indy likely putting up a lot of points I like JC better because they need him to try and stay in the game. Jones seems better suited for when KC is going to be winning and running the clock down.
Joseph Addai – Won't find much room to run but will be active in the passing game as usual.
Final Score: Indy 31…Kansas City 17
Jacksonville at Buffalo (+1) (41)
Make no mistake that as much as you want to credit Jax for winning the game last week by all accounts they should be 1-3. They are a terrible team however they face an equally if not worse team this week that will try to exploit the pass defense of Jax which has fallen to amongst the worst in the NFL. Check this out stat mavericks…In 4 of the 6 worst rush defense performances by Buffalo last year, those 4 took place at home. This year their 2 worst rush performances are at home. Forget the Colts game week 17 last year, the last 8 home games for Buffalo they are giving up an avg of almost 190 yds per game on the ground!!! Read that stat line again and digest it. Add in another 10 rushing touchdowns and MJD is looking like a top5 candidate this week.
Maurice Jones Drew – Remember last week I wrote his name in full and broke the hex on him this season
Start him with pride. He should have a big day and build on his performance from a week ago.
Fred Jackson – Was named the starter but I would not expect an explosive week. 1st of all CJ Spiller has to see more action with Lynch gone. Jackson should at least trot off the field on 3rd down situations. I find there to be a lot more hype around this guy than real production. For some he is their Rb3/Rb4 and as a bye week filler I get it but Jackson should not be your frontline starter and if he is you got problems.
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Buffalo 14
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-6.5) (38) opened at -9
Cinci is an enigma at times. They threw for 341 and 346 yds in 2 games where they lose this season to NE and Cle, the other weeks they had more balance and won with 159 and 180 yd performances in the passing game. Tampa Bay defense has looked alright in the passing games despite Batch hitting on some lucky throws a couple weeks ago. Still what can you tell about a team from Cle, Car, and a Big Ben less Pitt team? This line opened up like a blowout. I usually feel that when 2 teams play inter conference and one team is heavily favored that you take the underdog. A lot of other folks follow that rule and that's why the line has moved. What does any of this have to with Cedric Benson and whoever carries the ball for TB? It doesn't but I like to share.
Cedric Benson – OK, last week he looked pretty meh. The Bucs have gone from 104 to 119 to a whopping 201 on the ground and that was with Batch running the show in Pittsburgh. I watched that game and it was goofy, not much else you can say. Can they get it together on a bye week and march into Cinci? TB on the road is not a good bet usually. I would probably roll Benson out there and hope he can turn in a week 3 performance rather than what he did last week against Cleveland. The Bengals have run for 87, 94, 120, and 67 so far as a unit…not good.
LaGarrette Blount – Do you know how old this guy is? He turns 25 in December and he's a rookie. How many times was this guy held back in grade school? Wow! This is as good as he probably is going to get but I don't see Tampa Bay overusing the guy. I can see 12-15 carries this week but I also expect Cinci to win this game so is Blount going to be running the ball in the 2nd half? Doubtful.
Cadillac – has done nothing this season and seems to be on the very downside of his short career.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Tampa Bay 13
Denver at Baltimore (-7) (39)
Ravens off a very emotional win and a game they likely should have lost but dug in and managed to knock off Pitt without Big Ben to lean on. Denver meanwhile is behind the whole time to Tennessee and pulls the game out late much like Baltimore. You have to love Kyle Orton right now who is carving out his place in the NFL. Guy has a subset of WR/TE to work with IMHO and he is just ripping thru defenses. Makes it look easy actually. Not a fan of the HC personally but who cares, right? Orton is going to help Denver stay in the majority of most football games. I still maintain that Baltimore could be weak in the secondary and no one really challenges them or is capable of doing it. I would like to see Orton pass on them all day and he probably will with no running game to help him out.
Maroney/Buckhalter – BuckBuck actually is putting up double digits in PPR but neither is running the ball well. Maroney was something like 11 carries for 6 yds last week and Bucky wasn't much better. Buckhalter is part of the passing game however I don't see him doing well this week against Baltimore.
Ray Rice – Continues to hurt owners and we are now 4-5 weeks into the season. I honestly don't know the status but as I alluded to last week when others were trying to scold me, you can't take what a player says as the bible or end all be all. They are never going to tell an opponent that they are not going to play much; it's a tactical advantage if the other team thinks they are going to play. Check the IR again but be prepared on Sunday Morning to make a switch if need be. Denver's defense looked bad against the Colts(who doesn't) but overall they haven't been terrible.
Final Score: Baltimore 23…Denver 17
New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)
Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.
Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.
Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.
Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14
Tennessee at Dallas (-6.5) (42)
Let me show you what Vegas is looking at because initially I'm saying why is Dallas 6.5-7 point favorites other than the usual Million Dallas Cowboys fans that skew the line. Outside of the Pittsburgh game look at what TN is doing in the 1st down department vs their opponents…17 to 21, 17 to 26, and 13 to 22 last week…something ain't right and it starts with Chris Johnson who has taken a beating at RB this season. I want to make a phone call to child protection services for anyone that lines up at tailback for Jeff Fisher. If they don't start giving Ringer about a 1/3 of the load they are going to kill Chris Johnson before he turns 25. I mentioned this a couple weeks ago and I see threads popping up in the Shark Pool now, that's good, folks should be questioning what is happening in Tennessee.
Chris Johnson – has had a good game, a bad game, a good game, a bad game…will that trend continue? What happens if he throws up another 50 yds on the ground this week? Tennessee doesn't scare Dallas in the passing game. Dallas coming off a bye week, good luck Johnson owners and I'm one of them.
Marion Barber III/Felix Jones – After a Dallas win, after MB III has his best showing of the season, what does Jerry Jones do? Of course he makes controversy and says his former 1st round pick needs to touch the ball more. Do these guys watch the games? Sure, give it to Felix 20 times, we would all love to see it happen, pick one of these guys, any one of them it doesn't matter but start running the ball and get an identity for gawd's sake.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Tennessee 17
San Diego at Oakland (+6) (45)
Let's me get this straight…San Diego is putting up 450 yds of offense a week and allow only 237 on defense. They are outgaining their opposition by over 200 yds a week and yet they are 2-2…sounds like a few of my fantasy leagues and I'm sure many of yours. I just can't see San Diego dropping to 2-3 while being #1 in total offense and perhaps #1 in total defense; just doesn't make any sense. They have not lost a game in Oakland since 2003, they should change the name from the Coliseum to the Gods of Lightning Bolts.
Ryan Mathews – "he's playing he's playing he's playing"…either San Diego is content to give the ball a lot to Mike Tolbert or Mathews was a little more hurt than some thought. What was weird is he entered the game when San Diego had a good lead and played a lot of the 2nd half. Not sure what to read into that but again I will defer to the Shark pool and some of your thoughts…Bicycle Seat, Groovus, Chargers' legal advisor and staff member MT, what say you?
McFadden/Bush – Hmmm…would seem that McFadden was at his peak a couple weeks ago. What happens next? Cable might get fired pretty soon if Oakland descends to 1-5? Who takes over and what will they run on offense? I thought McFadden was a sell high a couple weeks ago and now Bush is back and he scored a touchdown last week although I think McFadden is clearly more talented overall. We can discuss all this below.
Edit to add: Nice job by C-Bound to point out McFadden is likely out this week. Check the IR but alos pay attention Sunday.
Final Score: San Diego 27…Oakland 14
Philadelphia at San Fran (-3) (38)
Should San Fran be favored right now? Does this remind anyone of the NYG/Chi game a week ago? Vick down, McCoy is gimpy with a broken rib, not sure what to hang your/my hat on here. With Kolb running things this offense is completely different and not for the better. Philly is traveling far but look at this defense of theirs. They held GB to 160 pass, Jax to 50 pass, and Wash to 125 pass yds on defense. I think they keep Alex Smith well in check this week. They are open to the ground game as they haven't held anyone under 100 yds rushing this year but SF is having problems with their OL and are being run like a 3rd class organization right now. I might take the points in this one but it does stink if you lift your nose to the air.
LeSean McCoy – Broken rib/ribs, check the IR
Mike Bell – I do not share the optimism on Mr Bell this week. He did well last year in NO but everyone did well last year in NO…MOP even ran one in, check the box scores. He has been on top 10 lists this year. Again I say that when a back up QB comes in most FF owners shake their heads and shrug but when a back up RB is listed as the starter suddenly it's pirate's booty for all.
Frank Gore – Despite chaos around him from the coaches and players he still is throwing up good numbers especially in PPR. I don't see it changing as several RBs have had nice days on Philly this year.
Final Score: Philly 20…San Fran 17
Minnesota at New York Jets (-4) (39)
The blockbuster trade this week wasn't in fantasy circles, it happened in the NFL as New England traded Randy Moss back to Vikings land. What impact can Moss have the 1st week? Probably not a lot, he just got into town today. Likely won't have more than about 10-15 plays to learn the 1st week; however those 10 plays might be called 2 and 3 times each. He is going to take 2 defenders deep into the secondary with him every time he runs a route. My opinion is the ones who really benefit are Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.
I said the Jets are the most balanced team in the NFL this past week and I stand by that. The Jets should be able to beat the Vikes and I'm sure Favre will enjoy going against a team he formerly played with, seems to be a thing of his but new York has more weapons this week and they are on a roll. I see them handling Minnesota despite them having a bye week. It looks like Minnesota spent the whole time in desperation trying to get another WR which they did. I like the Vikes in the coming weeks but not this week.
Adrian Peterson - He has a chance to finally finish the season as the #1 back in FF. Moss is going to help him big time. This match up isn't easy but he has the ability to still make a top12 bid this week. The schedule is going to get easy the 2nd half of the season.
LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene – New Orleans and Detroit had a lot of problems running against the Vikes but those OLs are not looking strong. Miami was able to push them around a couple weeks ago and I look for the Jets at home to dig in and play their game. It won't be pretty, LT owners shouldn't expect a lot this week but overall the team will do enough to get the win.
Final Score: New York Jets 20…Minnesota 17
It's a tough week folks. Not a lot that looks like a slam dunk to me but if you got something bring it, I'm sure others are pretty frustrated this week too.
Good luck this weekend!
You will hear me say it again through the write up this week but some of you were livid with me for not buying into what the players were saying in terms of their injuries. Guys(and gals) you must understand that players and coaches are never gonna tip their hands so most of the time they are going to say they are healthy and they are going to play. Pride plays a factor in all of this as well. You've hear me say this but I'm going to repeat myself…if a player cannot suit up on Sunday then how much better are they going to be the next week? I rarely see a player miss a game completely and then go 100% and blow up the next week…it's happened but not often. SO you saw Mathews miss a game and then proclaim he was healthy and then went out and took less than 50% of the snaps and shared the workload. It might have worked out for owners as he did OK in there but the reality is players who nurse injuries typically need ramp up time. A week of shard duties before they get a huge workload the next week.
And I realize many of you are running out of options. I put together a 12 owner best ball league of mostly shark pool posters this season and I can't get one over on these folks to save my life so I understand those of you in uber competitive leagues. But still in some of your more relaxed leagues there are still guys on the waiver wire that you typically can find a week or two ahead of schedule. For example I picked up Lynch a week or two ahead of when he was traded. I was able to get Ryan Torrain before last week too. I might not start these guys but they make great depth and also help add value to trades for players I really want.
Enough of the soap box for this week.
Chicago at Carolina (+2.5) (35.5)
Everything was going so right for Chicago until last week. It was predictable but still things don't look good for them right now. The lack of any real weapons at WR is going to haunt them as they implement Martz and his system there. What happens if they can't make it happen against Carolina? Has anyone taken a look at how bad Chicago is at running the football? Has anyone taken a look at how bad that OL is at doing anything other than taking Disney Park tickets as turnstile specialists, holy crap are they bad.
Carolina comes back home on a wing and a prayer. They could actually salvage some of the season if they can capture a win before the bye week with SF and St Louis on the other side but with Steve Smith out and Dwayne Jarrett arrested for a DWI for the 2nd time and apparently cut from the team, they have absolutely nothing to throw the ball with. They have the RBs to just line up and ram it down team's throats but they also seem reluctant to stick with what works. Very frustrating for FF owners. I don't know how they can win with a rookie QB and no WRs to throw the ball to in this day and age of the NFL.
Matt Forte – No upside when he doesn't get at least 4-5 receptions because Chicago has shown at this point they have no running game and I mean nothing. The Panthers are not that easy to run against anyways but Forte is avg under 2.5 ypc I believe. With bye weeks owners are left with few options but the ceiling is limited unless he is highly active in the passing game.
DeAngelo Williams – Finally totaled up 100 yds and a score last week. Chicago is not easy at all to run the ball on and Bradshaw last week Imo was a reflection of a team that knew they weren't going to win the game and started to wear down. This week they will not see Eli Manning and in fact the Bears defense can probably force Clausen into a few turnovers so DeAngelo owners could be right where they were a week or two ago.
Jonathan Stewart – Had a fluke reception for a TD last week but otherwise he still is not a great option for most owners. Can't see where the upside would be for him this week. He's avg 3.2 ypc to boot, bench him.
Final Score: Chicago 17…Carolina 13
Atlanta at Cleveland (+3) (40) Opened at +6
A lot of Hillis owners are going to look at the last couple of games he has had and see a 4.6 ypc avg from Atlanta and go WINNER!!! I was wrong last week in my Hillis outlook but I think this week if you look a little deeper you will see what I anticipate. Atlanta is giving up 4.6 ypc but they came down from 6 yds after week 1 where they yielded 143 yds. Then 118 in week 2 but Mendenhall busting off a 50 yarder in overtime and a THT long one in week 2 had a lot to do with this. In weeks 3 and 4 they only gave up 43 yds rushing and another 81 last week. The Falcons if they don't give up the big play do very well. Hillis is powerful and has burst but I wouldn't describe him as a burner and I believe he will have hard time making big yds this week. Grind it out yes but anything more than 60-75 yds and a 40-50% of a TD would be expecting a lot. Perhaps RB2 status but not top10-12.
Michael Turner – has put in a couple solid weeks but if not for his receptions last week in PPR it would have been a real disaster. Still a pretty ho hum effort. I spoke in week 1 about Turner on grass outside and I am not overly optimistic this week however I expect him to see a full workload and also for Atlanta to take to the air against Cleveland. Look for Turner to find points in the 2nd half after Cleveland gets loosened up.
Peyton Hillis – I went over his outlook up top. Marginal RB2 this week but that is probably the slot most have him at anyways.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…Cleveland 16
Green Bay at Washington (+2.5) (44)
Packers looked strong early last week and then went in the tank only to hold for dear life against the Lions. On the surface I was
thinking this would be a GB blowout and the line is pretty small but upon further review I think differently. Washington is coming off back to back rushing weeks of 116 and 169 yds on the ground. This after posting an abysmal 18yds against the Houston Texans. The Packers are awesome against the pass only allowing 185 yds and generate a lot of sacks. The Skins will likely try to shorten the game and pound terrain into the ground this week.
Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn – Both remain terrible options for owners. If they ever breakout of this we can discuss but Washington is at least decent at stopping the run. I'll listen to someone reason why they think one of them is a good option but if you start either of these guys it's a leap of faith.
Clinton Portis – Out 4-6 weeks
Ryan Torrain – I think he is a start this week. Most that grabbed him a week early will prosper again this week. The Packers are giving up 5.2 ypc and Mike Shanahan is going to run early and often and see what they have to stop him with. Torrain is not what I call a special player but he has a legitimate chance at top10 this week.
Final Score: Green Bay 24…Washington 23
St Louis at Detroit (-3) (43)
Been a long time since St Louis has won a road game…actually maybe the 1 game they managed to win last season was on the road, not sure about that. This line looks a little like Chicago last week where you say Detroit is 0-4, no way they beat St Louis at 2-2, however Detroit is playing better than some think. They also got torched by Philly and didn't do too well against the Vikes either. The Rams are a better team right now but the problem is they are very young and learning week by week. I think this will be a game where they go up and take a loss but somehow learn from their mistakes. Bradford is bound to have a few stinkers here and there, perhaps this week he has to take a step back to take a step forward. St Louis is growing and they will hit a point where these are automatic type wins but they aren't there yet, still young.
Steven Jackson – Acted like he might not play and then takes almost every hand off in the game. I have a feeling like always he won't practice much but will play every Sunday. The important info will be about 45 minutes before kickoff. He wasn't spectacular last week but Detroit is indoors and he should be good to go in this one.
Jahvid Best – This just feel like a letdown game for the Rams so my instincts would say that Best has a pretty strong day running the ball for Detroit. In one of my redraft leagues with short rosters I am faced with a decision of having to work the WW for a QB as Vick is down. I grabbed Shaun Hill and I think Detroit will win this game so I would side with Best having a score and making a strong run at 100 total yds. Have not looked at the IR, don't know his health status but I don't know of him being any worse off than he was last week.
Final Score: Detroit 23…St Louis 14
NY Giants at Houston (-3) (44.5) opened at -4.5
On the surface my 1st impression is Houston blows these guys out by the 3rd quarter. The Giants though have been able to move the ball around in a couple of their losses but the defense has been absent much of the time and they have a hard time finishing drives. My biggest wildcard though in this game is the return of Brian Cushing which should help Houston shut down the run.
The Giants passing game has been up and down but they have found room to run as a team and have topped the 100 yard mark every week. Houston however seems to better against the run than the pass so something is going to give this week. It's not like Eli and crew can't move the ball thru the air, they certainly can.
Ahmad Bradshaw – As with many backs right now you will need to check the injury report. I certainly would not run to insert Brandon Jacobs but I see NY probably having a letdown in this game and if and when Houston jumps up on them they will have to move away from the run. I do not see a big day for Bradshaw this week.
Arian Foster – You have to start him every week. I have had a few owners in my league as recently as last week still holding this guy on the bench for other more prominent stars…if that is the case on your team you trade anyone that is in front of him. He is a frontline starter and I wouldn't worry about match up much. Forte was held in check, not a lot of backs have exploded on New York but Foster is a dual threat as he showed in about 2.5 quarters of work last week. Did he remind you of anyone? I had to see a Priest after the game.
Final Score: Houston 30…New York 20
Kansas City at Indy (-8) (45)
The Chiefs are the only unbeaten team and after this week the '72 Miami Dolphins can pop open the Cold Duck a little early this year. Indy seems to shoot themselves in the foot but they are a superior team at least offensively to almost anyone in the league. They were driving down the field all game last week and made 2 turnovers in the 2nd half that really cost them the game.
One interesting way to look at this game would be the KC ground attack which has produced 135, 140, and 207 as a team the 1st 3 weeks. And they have held the opposition to 109, 73, and 43 yds on the ground the past 3 weeks. If they could continue that trend I guess they can keep the game close but playing Indy on that fast track in their house, I really don't see KC keeping this game very close. Such a cliché but turnovers are going to play a huge factor in this game. If Indy is in a giving mood then KC has a chance but anything short of that or Matt Cassel throwing a couple picks at some point and it spells disaster.
Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – JC is more explosive, TJ is steady eddie, because of Indy likely putting up a lot of points I like JC better because they need him to try and stay in the game. Jones seems better suited for when KC is going to be winning and running the clock down.
Joseph Addai – Won't find much room to run but will be active in the passing game as usual.
Final Score: Indy 31…Kansas City 17
Jacksonville at Buffalo (+1) (41)
Make no mistake that as much as you want to credit Jax for winning the game last week by all accounts they should be 1-3. They are a terrible team however they face an equally if not worse team this week that will try to exploit the pass defense of Jax which has fallen to amongst the worst in the NFL. Check this out stat mavericks…In 4 of the 6 worst rush defense performances by Buffalo last year, those 4 took place at home. This year their 2 worst rush performances are at home. Forget the Colts game week 17 last year, the last 8 home games for Buffalo they are giving up an avg of almost 190 yds per game on the ground!!! Read that stat line again and digest it. Add in another 10 rushing touchdowns and MJD is looking like a top5 candidate this week.
Maurice Jones Drew – Remember last week I wrote his name in full and broke the hex on him this season
Start him with pride. He should have a big day and build on his performance from a week ago.Fred Jackson – Was named the starter but I would not expect an explosive week. 1st of all CJ Spiller has to see more action with Lynch gone. Jackson should at least trot off the field on 3rd down situations. I find there to be a lot more hype around this guy than real production. For some he is their Rb3/Rb4 and as a bye week filler I get it but Jackson should not be your frontline starter and if he is you got problems.
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Buffalo 14
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-6.5) (38) opened at -9
Cinci is an enigma at times. They threw for 341 and 346 yds in 2 games where they lose this season to NE and Cle, the other weeks they had more balance and won with 159 and 180 yd performances in the passing game. Tampa Bay defense has looked alright in the passing games despite Batch hitting on some lucky throws a couple weeks ago. Still what can you tell about a team from Cle, Car, and a Big Ben less Pitt team? This line opened up like a blowout. I usually feel that when 2 teams play inter conference and one team is heavily favored that you take the underdog. A lot of other folks follow that rule and that's why the line has moved. What does any of this have to with Cedric Benson and whoever carries the ball for TB? It doesn't but I like to share.
Cedric Benson – OK, last week he looked pretty meh. The Bucs have gone from 104 to 119 to a whopping 201 on the ground and that was with Batch running the show in Pittsburgh. I watched that game and it was goofy, not much else you can say. Can they get it together on a bye week and march into Cinci? TB on the road is not a good bet usually. I would probably roll Benson out there and hope he can turn in a week 3 performance rather than what he did last week against Cleveland. The Bengals have run for 87, 94, 120, and 67 so far as a unit…not good.
LaGarrette Blount – Do you know how old this guy is? He turns 25 in December and he's a rookie. How many times was this guy held back in grade school? Wow! This is as good as he probably is going to get but I don't see Tampa Bay overusing the guy. I can see 12-15 carries this week but I also expect Cinci to win this game so is Blount going to be running the ball in the 2nd half? Doubtful.
Cadillac – has done nothing this season and seems to be on the very downside of his short career.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Tampa Bay 13
Denver at Baltimore (-7) (39)
Ravens off a very emotional win and a game they likely should have lost but dug in and managed to knock off Pitt without Big Ben to lean on. Denver meanwhile is behind the whole time to Tennessee and pulls the game out late much like Baltimore. You have to love Kyle Orton right now who is carving out his place in the NFL. Guy has a subset of WR/TE to work with IMHO and he is just ripping thru defenses. Makes it look easy actually. Not a fan of the HC personally but who cares, right? Orton is going to help Denver stay in the majority of most football games. I still maintain that Baltimore could be weak in the secondary and no one really challenges them or is capable of doing it. I would like to see Orton pass on them all day and he probably will with no running game to help him out.
Maroney/Buckhalter – BuckBuck actually is putting up double digits in PPR but neither is running the ball well. Maroney was something like 11 carries for 6 yds last week and Bucky wasn't much better. Buckhalter is part of the passing game however I don't see him doing well this week against Baltimore.
Ray Rice – Continues to hurt owners and we are now 4-5 weeks into the season. I honestly don't know the status but as I alluded to last week when others were trying to scold me, you can't take what a player says as the bible or end all be all. They are never going to tell an opponent that they are not going to play much; it's a tactical advantage if the other team thinks they are going to play. Check the IR again but be prepared on Sunday Morning to make a switch if need be. Denver's defense looked bad against the Colts(who doesn't) but overall they haven't been terrible.
Final Score: Baltimore 23…Denver 17
New Orleans at Arizona (+7) (45)
Last year the Saints put up 400+ yds of offense in 9 of their 1st 12 games…this year they have yet to top that mark…they have come close though. Arizona is like a progressive jackpot on defense with totals of 325, 444, 364, 419 and on offense they are turning into a cold deck with 378, 267, 227, and 124 yds of TOTAL offense. They couldn't do any worse could they? They start Max Hall as their QB, might as well be Max Headroom. Max is a rookie that I doubt many people know a whole lot about. It's gonna be ugly, New Orleans has got to beat AZ like a drum if they expect to get back to the Super Bowl.
Pierre Thomas/LBetts/CIvory – It really doesn't matter but Betts looked OK early on in the game and seemed to wear out as the game went on. They need Pierre Thomas in there to settle them down. As a team they are only avg 70 yds a game on the ground. The offensive line is a far cry from what it was a year ago. I don't know if there are injuries along the line that we aren't privy to, perhaps the locals can chime in on this.
Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – I'm anxious to see what whining in public gets you for Beanie Wells. He basically threw his coaching staff under the bus and acted like he was going to march into that office and raise hell…good luck doing that to Coach Whis. They did go to a Super Bowl before he arrived. Arizona is in disarray right now.
Final Score: New Orleans 28…Arizona 14
Tennessee at Dallas (-6.5) (42)
Let me show you what Vegas is looking at because initially I'm saying why is Dallas 6.5-7 point favorites other than the usual Million Dallas Cowboys fans that skew the line. Outside of the Pittsburgh game look at what TN is doing in the 1st down department vs their opponents…17 to 21, 17 to 26, and 13 to 22 last week…something ain't right and it starts with Chris Johnson who has taken a beating at RB this season. I want to make a phone call to child protection services for anyone that lines up at tailback for Jeff Fisher. If they don't start giving Ringer about a 1/3 of the load they are going to kill Chris Johnson before he turns 25. I mentioned this a couple weeks ago and I see threads popping up in the Shark Pool now, that's good, folks should be questioning what is happening in Tennessee.
Chris Johnson – has had a good game, a bad game, a good game, a bad game…will that trend continue? What happens if he throws up another 50 yds on the ground this week? Tennessee doesn't scare Dallas in the passing game. Dallas coming off a bye week, good luck Johnson owners and I'm one of them.
Marion Barber III/Felix Jones – After a Dallas win, after MB III has his best showing of the season, what does Jerry Jones do? Of course he makes controversy and says his former 1st round pick needs to touch the ball more. Do these guys watch the games? Sure, give it to Felix 20 times, we would all love to see it happen, pick one of these guys, any one of them it doesn't matter but start running the ball and get an identity for gawd's sake.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Tennessee 17
San Diego at Oakland (+6) (45)
Let's me get this straight…San Diego is putting up 450 yds of offense a week and allow only 237 on defense. They are outgaining their opposition by over 200 yds a week and yet they are 2-2…sounds like a few of my fantasy leagues and I'm sure many of yours. I just can't see San Diego dropping to 2-3 while being #1 in total offense and perhaps #1 in total defense; just doesn't make any sense. They have not lost a game in Oakland since 2003, they should change the name from the Coliseum to the Gods of Lightning Bolts.
Ryan Mathews – "he's playing he's playing he's playing"…either San Diego is content to give the ball a lot to Mike Tolbert or Mathews was a little more hurt than some thought. What was weird is he entered the game when San Diego had a good lead and played a lot of the 2nd half. Not sure what to read into that but again I will defer to the Shark pool and some of your thoughts…Bicycle Seat, Groovus, Chargers' legal advisor and staff member MT, what say you?
McFadden/Bush – Hmmm…would seem that McFadden was at his peak a couple weeks ago. What happens next? Cable might get fired pretty soon if Oakland descends to 1-5? Who takes over and what will they run on offense? I thought McFadden was a sell high a couple weeks ago and now Bush is back and he scored a touchdown last week although I think McFadden is clearly more talented overall. We can discuss all this below.
Edit to add: Nice job by C-Bound to point out McFadden is likely out this week. Check the IR but alos pay attention Sunday.
Final Score: San Diego 27…Oakland 14
Philadelphia at San Fran (-3) (38)
Should San Fran be favored right now? Does this remind anyone of the NYG/Chi game a week ago? Vick down, McCoy is gimpy with a broken rib, not sure what to hang your/my hat on here. With Kolb running things this offense is completely different and not for the better. Philly is traveling far but look at this defense of theirs. They held GB to 160 pass, Jax to 50 pass, and Wash to 125 pass yds on defense. I think they keep Alex Smith well in check this week. They are open to the ground game as they haven't held anyone under 100 yds rushing this year but SF is having problems with their OL and are being run like a 3rd class organization right now. I might take the points in this one but it does stink if you lift your nose to the air.
LeSean McCoy – Broken rib/ribs, check the IR
Mike Bell – I do not share the optimism on Mr Bell this week. He did well last year in NO but everyone did well last year in NO…MOP even ran one in, check the box scores. He has been on top 10 lists this year. Again I say that when a back up QB comes in most FF owners shake their heads and shrug but when a back up RB is listed as the starter suddenly it's pirate's booty for all.
Frank Gore – Despite chaos around him from the coaches and players he still is throwing up good numbers especially in PPR. I don't see it changing as several RBs have had nice days on Philly this year.
Final Score: Philly 20…San Fran 17
Minnesota at New York Jets (-4) (39)
The blockbuster trade this week wasn't in fantasy circles, it happened in the NFL as New England traded Randy Moss back to Vikings land. What impact can Moss have the 1st week? Probably not a lot, he just got into town today. Likely won't have more than about 10-15 plays to learn the 1st week; however those 10 plays might be called 2 and 3 times each. He is going to take 2 defenders deep into the secondary with him every time he runs a route. My opinion is the ones who really benefit are Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.
I said the Jets are the most balanced team in the NFL this past week and I stand by that. The Jets should be able to beat the Vikes and I'm sure Favre will enjoy going against a team he formerly played with, seems to be a thing of his but new York has more weapons this week and they are on a roll. I see them handling Minnesota despite them having a bye week. It looks like Minnesota spent the whole time in desperation trying to get another WR which they did. I like the Vikes in the coming weeks but not this week.
Adrian Peterson - He has a chance to finally finish the season as the #1 back in FF. Moss is going to help him big time. This match up isn't easy but he has the ability to still make a top12 bid this week. The schedule is going to get easy the 2nd half of the season.
LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene – New Orleans and Detroit had a lot of problems running against the Vikes but those OLs are not looking strong. Miami was able to push them around a couple weeks ago and I look for the Jets at home to dig in and play their game. It won't be pretty, LT owners shouldn't expect a lot this week but overall the team will do enough to get the win.
Final Score: New York Jets 20…Minnesota 17
It's a tough week folks. Not a lot that looks like a slam dunk to me but if you got something bring it, I'm sure others are pretty frustrated this week too.
Good luck this weekend!
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If the Giants decide to pass it doesn't seem to bother Bradshaws #'s in the least as he gets called upon for draws, screens and swing passes. If he wouldn't have 2 of his fumbles on the goaline Bradshaw would have 5 TD's on the year. I believe if he stays healthy that he'll finish top 5 at the end of the season.
