Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
San Diego at St Louis (+9) (45)…opened at (+6.5)
The Bolts are +5 in turnover ratio at home…-7 in turnover ratio on the road. They avg 165 yds rushing at home, and they avg under 100 yds rushing on the road. The Bolts simply are not the same team away from the Murph. The Rams lost last week because they were -3 in the turnover department. You're going to hear me talk about turnovers a lot today. San Diego is pretty good however in domes.
Ryan Mathews/Mike Tolbert – Tolbert was 12 for 11 on the ground last week and that's not a typo. He did have a touchdown but Mathews was 9 for 59 and I expect his workload to increase this week. The Rams are OK on defense but they are far from world beaters at this point.
Steven Jackson -47 carries the last 2 weeks. Clayton down will impede the passing game but I look for Jackson to get more involved there as well.
Final Score: San Diego 31…St Louis 14
Kansas City at Houston (-4.5) (44)
Chiefs have been even or better in the turnover dept each game this year. So they are giving themselves a chance to win each week. Houston has a major problem stopping the pass but the problem for KC is that is not their strength. Cassel and company are one of the worst passing units in the NFL right now. For the Texans, they are going to have their work cut out for them. The Chiefs are pretty good against the run only allowing 3.2 ypc and that compounds the problem for Houston who wants to run the ball while they are nursing a lot of injuries in their WR corp. I didn't give the Chiefs much chance last week and I'm not sure I really like them again this week.
Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones – Charles had 87 yds rush on16 carries, that's 5.5 ypc by my math. Add in 3/134 receiving and also Jones struggled, the Chiefs need to stop messing around with this and ride the young horse. Charles should be starting and get the 1st 2-3 series of each football game. When and if the Chiefs get a lead then they should work Jones into the football game. Todd Haley doesn't play FF, that's obvious. And Charlie Weiss does but he drafted Jones apparently.
Arian Foster – Knee seems fine and he is ready to roll this weekend. I don't see huge numbers for him but he's capable of exploding every week so don't fool around with him and plug him in.
Final Score: Houston 24…Kansas City 20
Baltimore at New England (-3) (44.5)
I know Baltimore struggles at New England but the Pats are not that good and nowhere near as good as the score in the Monday Night game a couple weeks ago. Do you know Baltimore is 4-1 on the season but (-6) in the t/o dept? How long can they keep that up? Even that being the case the Ravens have only turned the ball over twice in the last 3 games. So what does that mean MOP? It means their defense isn't even making plays, like interception returns for touchdowns, big fumble recoveries, eventually they are going to get a bundle. Also their rush yds allowed on defense has gone from 173 to 84 to 39 the last 3 weeks. New England is +7 in the turnover dept in games they win. I'm thinking if Baltimore doesn't turn the ball over that they handle the Patriots rather easily. Remember the Pats have no deep threat now on offense.
Ray Rice – He finally had his welcome to 2010 game last week. Look for him to build on that and while it won't be an easy game he should do well and continue on what he started last week.
BJGE – I don't like his chances or any of the Patriots RBs this coming weekend.
Final Score: Baltimore 26…New England 17
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5) (44)
79, 50, 43, 121, 85…those are the rushing totals each game so far for the New Orleans Saints offense. They are (-6) in the t/o ratio dept the last 3 games. The sad part is the Bucs are not particularly good at stopping the run; in fact they aren't good at all doing it. Bucs yield 4.9 ypc right now, NO 4.1 which is about the league avg.
Pierre Thomas/Betts/Ivory/Jones – It's a mess right now and you have to pay attention to the IR this week. If Thomas can go you might think about starting him but my guess is if he plays you are looking at somewhere in the 10-15 carry range.
Caddilac/Graham/Blount – The Bucs are not very good at rushing although Graham really skewed it good last week. I wouldn't want to start any of these guys unless I had to.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 21…New Orleans 20
Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3) (41.5)
The Falcons come in very balanced on offense. ATL is 2nd in rushing yds per game, 17th however in avg ypc with 4.1 on offense. Did you know that the Atlanta Falcons have run more offensive plays and snaps than any other team in the NFL? "Of course we did MOP, we're sharks!" Did you know also that they are 27th in the league in avg yds per play? And that would make a little sense because they methodically move the ball down the field taking their sweet time as they go. Anyone know who is starting for Philly at QB this week? The Falcons on the road beat Cleveland, New Orleans, and almost beat Pittsburgh. They are road warriors and dare I say hawk-like in their :e:fforts.
Michael Turner/Jason Snelling – Turner should see some increased blocking down field from a guy named Michael Jenkins. Folks wonder why this guy still has a job as his receiving skills pale in comparison of those to another 1st round draft pick in Roddy White. But Jenkins has been missed in the run game and they are eager to work him in this weekend.
LeSean McCoy – He now has Harrison who was traded from Cleveland this week to come in and give him a breather. McCoy has been spectacular and way outplayed his draft position to this point. The Falcons are only giving up 86 yds rushing per game so it will not be easy for him this weekend.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…Philadelphia 17
Detroit at the Giants of New York (-10) (44.5)
The Lions are getting better at pass defense only allowing 200 yds per week the last 4 games. They pass the ball well but their rush offense needs consistency right now. The Giants are now having Super Bowl talk break out in some media outlets. Their offense is explosive, no doubt about it. And the defense the last 2 weeks has allowed 59 and 24 yards rushing. They only allow 146 yards passing per game and have 19 sacks on the season, and 5 TDs allowed vs 6 picks. Their offense though likes to dress up like Robin Hood sometimes and they have 15 turnovers on the year. They were (-6) the 1st 3 weeks and even the past 2. They are hanging by a thread if you really look close…SUPER BOWL!?
Jahvid Best – Is he going to be up and down all year? My guess is yes but we all would like to see a little consistency here.
Ahmad Bradshaw – And folks were talking stud with this guy a week ago. I wasn't but many were. He is nowhere near the player of a guy like Chris Johnson, ADP, or Ray Rice right now so just enjoy him for what he is. A solid RB with a great pass attack to back him up.
Brandon Jacobs – If the Giants blow the Lions out; and I am not calling for that, but if they do he is going to see a lot more action.
Final Score: New York 24…Detroit 20
Seattle at Chicago (-7) (37)
The Seahawks pass defense on the road has allowed 369 and 349 both games. They are -5 in the turnover ratio dept on the road. They are just plain bad on the road. Chicago meanwhile has passed for…are you sitting down...a whopping 80 yards TOTAL in the last 2 games. I passed more yards at the Octoberfest last weekend…(give it a minute) Chicago's defense has forced 14 takeaways on the season but their offense has given 12 of them back. Defense has allowed 2 passing touchdowns in 5 games.
Lynch/Forsett – I like them to split carries this week and an eventual 60/40 split or higher for Lynch moving forward.
Matt Forte – He won't be explosive every week but you risk missing the games he does by keeping him on your bench. He is paying big dividends for those that drafted him.
Final Score: Chicago 27…Seattle 10
Miami at Green Bay (-3.5)
Green Bay is losing players left and right. I'm not going to go thru all the injuries but you'll want to check the IR and you can also check out David Dodd's weekly IR on the site, it's well put together and has a little more in depth info than just scrolling the IR that the NFL puts out. Miami is avg about 130-150 yds rushing on the road their last 7-8 road games. They are going to try and ram it down the Packers throat to shorten the game. Miami on defense is only allowing 175 yds passing per game this season. The Packers pass defense has allowed 308 and 322 yards the past 2 weeks. They have 8 turnovers in the past 3 weeks and 30 penalties for 246 yards the past 3 weeks to boot. They are a sloppy football team right now.
Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – I expect big things from him after the bye week. Look for Brown and Williams to get a lot of touches in this football game as Miami has a legitimate shot at getting to 3-2.
Kuhn/Jackson – I think Miami will be able to bottle these guys up.
Final Score: Miami 20…Green Bay 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-13.5) (37.5)
There are games you don't need to know a whole lot about and this is one of them. Cleveland just might start Colt McCoy this weekend; need I say more about them? Pittsburgh has been killing teams not named Baltimore and they are getting their starting QB Ben Roethlisbeger back this week, need I say more? The Steelers should crush Cleveland.
Peyton Hillis – NO
Rashard Mendenhall – Yes
Final Score: Pittsburgh 49…Cleveland 3
New York Jets at Denver (+3) (41.5)
The Jets are about the best team in the NFL with a ton of balance on both sides of the ball. The one area they are a little soft in perhaps is parts of their secondary. Orton has been on a real tear thru the NFL this season. I still think Denver will come up short in this one but New York will be tested in their secondary.
Moreno – They say he'll play but I don't trust those hamstrings for another week until I see what he does on the field.
LaDainian Tomlinson – Looked awesome this past week. We saw glimpses of what he was like years ago and it's refreshing to watch again. I'm glad he will end his career hopefully on a high note. Ray Rice got on track last week against Denver, look for LT and Greene to a lesser extent to continue that this week and rack up 100 yds and a score. LT is familiar with the thin air in Denver so that should not pose a problem for him. Greene will be looking for air after every touch in the game.
Final Score: New York 24…Denver 17
Oakland at San Fran (-6.5) (41)
Vegas seems supremely confident that San Fran is going to dismantle the Raiders this week. Maybe they are looking at the 947 yards that Oakland has allowed on defense the last 2 weeks…OUCH! Also the offense for Oakland is vastly better with Gradkowski under center and it is not clear right now who will start on Sunday. Of course the Niners have allowed 1,150+ yds on defense the last 3 weeks and are (-10) in the t/o dept. They have only cracked 100 yards rushing once this season. Why are they 6.5 point favorites again?
Michael Bush – He's starting for now until McFadden is really 100% and can perform like he did in weeks 1-3.
Frank Gore – Despite not rushing for a ton of yards every week he remains active in the passing game and scores touchdowns. He should have a big week against Oakland.
San Fran 27…Oakland 21
Dallas at Minnesota (-1.5) (44.5)
Dallas has allowed 282 yds rushing the past 2 weeks on the ground, that's a problem as Minnesota has had their best games against Detroit and Miami where Adrian Peterson was running well. The Vikings have 11 turnovers in 4 games. Most people thought this would be a battle of possible 3-1 or 4-0 teams, not 2 teams that are 1-3 after they lose coming off their bye weeks.
Julius Jones…sorry Felix Jones – Looks like he won the job last week.
Adrian Peterson – Should be the focal point of the offense and with Randy Moss stretching the defense look for ADP to bust some long gainers the next few weeks.
Final Score: Minnesota 23…Dallas 20
Indianapolis at Washington (+3) (44)
Indy comes into this game very banged up. Addai has been nursing a shoulder, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and Anthony Gonzalez have all been gimpy lately too. I think the Colts are far superior offensively to the Skins. Washington has some challenges on defense especially the passing game despite what they accomplished last week. I think Manning and company will take to the air and have their way as they visit D.C.
Joseph Addai – It's one thing for Mike Hart to come in and relieve Addai who suffered an injury last week, it's quite another to roll in with Hart as the game plan and starting RB. I think Addai will rest most of the week and suit up on Sunday. How affective will he be? I imagine they limit his touches to somewhere in the 12-15 range tops.
Ryan Torrain – He's far from a stud but we know Indy can be run on so I probably would insert him in as my RB2 in most formats.
Final Score: Indy 28…Washington 16
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3) (45)
Most people are not buying the Jags at 3-2 right now when they were amongst the worst at 1-2 just 2-3 weeks ago. I share that view and don't think the Jags are a quality football team however the Titans are just a couple plays of being 1-4 themselves so I'm not really sold on the Titans as a great football team right now. Tennessee is still sort of chuck the duck and pray on offense but Jacksonville has some sort of passing game especially at home. Logic says the Titans but Jax is scrappy and maybe they can pull off a mild upset and get themselves to a ridiculous 4-2 and at least give the impression that JDR might get to keep his job. Remember last year that they were 7-3 IIRC and then collapsed down the stretch so the Jags winning early in the season is not unbelievable.
Chris Johnson – Had a solid game last week and will get a bye week here soon to rest up. Still worried about his long range health but right now folks that held on to Javon Ringer might be willing to let him go uber cheap so if you haven't done so already you should go and buy a little insurance.
MJD – The offense looks like it is finding a groove and the presence of some passing attack doesn't hurt his stock at all.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Tennessee 21
Good Luck!
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at 49-3.
at 49-3.
Not sure everyone got that.
Are you implying it WAS Felix fault? Curious.Cowboys put up what's tied for their most points this year, and still lost because the other team scored more, and they got over penalized due to stupidity. I would expect that the Cowboys will run the ball even more. 
I would guess that most FF owners are not going to trust Felix until he strings together 4-5 games with 15+ carries. Frankly, I don't trust Dallas coaches to run the ball enough, or not revert back to Barber out of displaced loyalty to put Felix as a green. But I believe he CAN run well against MIN, IF he gets the chance.
You have good company though, Dodds isn't a believer either.
You have good company though, Dodds isn't a believer either.
